The heterogeneous reaction of green and conventional bonds to exogenous shocks and the hedging implications.

ABSTRACT

Unlike most previous studies considering the yields on green bonds versus conventional bonds or the hedging ability of green bonds against downside market risk, the main purpose of this paper is to paper examine the short-term response of green and conventional bonds to the Russia-Ukraine conflict shock and the US Federal monetary policy tightening. Using daily data from August 3, 2021 to March 29, 2022, this paper conducts an event-based study (Cumulative Abnormal Returns, CAR) and then applies a hedging analysis in the context of increasing geopolitical risk and financial stress. The analysis reveals that green bonds exhibit a stronger reaction to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the US Federal rate hike than conventional, municipal, and treasury bonds in different time frames. Compared to conventional, municipal, and treasury bonds, green bonds offer lower negative CAR responses during the event window and the [-5, +5] period, suggesting a rigidity feature. The dynamic correlation and hedging analysis indicate that green bonds, unlike the other bonds indices, have a negative dynamic correlation with both geopolitical risks and financial stress, implying a hedging ability around the conflict shock and the Federal tightening cycle. These findings enrich the existing literature on green bonds, offering a wide range of applications for investment managers and policymakers.