Application of a multi-criteria decision support system for assessing development potential in flood risk areas - Case study of the Warta River.

ABSTRACT

The paper discusses the concept of a proprietary decision-making model that allows for determining whether the planned development in areas not protected by flood embankments and at risk of flooding can be shaped in a safe manner. The model was used to evaluate the possibility of shaping the development in flood-risk areas on the example of one of the types of Oleder villages - a dispersed village located in the floodplains of the Warta River (western Poland). So far, there has been no comprehensive evaluation method supporting proper spatial planning for flood-risk areas. The use of multi-criteria analysis methods enabled to specify the key criteria of this evaluation, which form the basis of the decision-making support system. Additionally, the elaborated method enables to determine whether the localities under study can retain their current functional nature and if there is a potential for further spatial development based on the characteristics of an Oleder village. The presented methodology can be easily adapted to other cultural areas located in countries with different levels of development, traditions, landscape or climate.