Multi-objective optimization of the spatial layout of green infrastructures with cost-effectiveness analysis under climate change scenarios.

ABSTRACT

Green infrastructure (GI) plays a significant role in alleviating urban flooding risk caused by urbanization and climate change. Due to space and financial limitations, the successful implementation of GI relies heavily on its layout design, and there is an increasing trend in using multi-objective optimization to support decision-making in GI planning. However, little is known about the hydrological effects of synchronously optimizing the size, location, and connection of GI under climate change. This study proposed a framework to optimize the size, location, and connection of typical GI facilities under climate change by combining the modified non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) and storm water management model (SWMM). The results showed that optimizing the size, location, and connection of GI facilities significantly increases the maximum reduction rate of runoff and peak flow by 13.4 %-24.5 % and 3.3 %-18 %, respectively, compared to optimizing only the size and location of GI. In the optimized results, most of the runoff from building roofs flew toward green space. Permeable pavement accounted for the highest average proportion of GI implementation area in optimal layouts, accounting for 29.8 %-54.2 % of road area. The average cost-effectiveness (C/E) values decreased from 16 %/105 Yuan under the historical period scenario to 14.3 %/105 Yuan and 14 %/105 Yuan under the two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. These results can help in understanding the optimization layout and cost-effectiveness of GI under climate change, and the proposed framework can enhance the adaptability of cities to climate change by providing specific cost-effective GI layout design.