The main threats facing the eel (Anguilla anguilla) and the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in Galicia (NW Spain) through Partial Least Squares Path Modelling.

ABSTRACT

Migratory fish are very important species from an ecological and socioeconomic point of view, but they suffer the effects of many threats such as climate change, pollution, or overfishing, thus contributing to the decline of these species. To study the main factors influencing these species, Partial Least Squares Path Modelling (PLS-PM) methodology has been used to analyse and quantify the main threats facing two highly relevant migratory species the eel (Anguilla anguilla) and the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). Based on this statistical approach, two models have been developed for a total of 14 rivers located in the Autonomous Community of Galicia (NW Spain), one for the eel and the other for the lamprey. For the construction of the models, the influence of environmental factors, surface water quality and anthropogenic impacts on the population of these species has been studied. Two scenarios have also been simulated to assess how the application of corrective measures to reduce the anthropogenic impact implies important improvements to the eel and lamprey populations. The results of the models developed indicate that the variables analysed predict 69% of the eel "Population", with the weight of the measured variables (MV) 'Water treatment plants' having the most substantial weight (W=0.939) followed by the significant negative influence of 'Surface area of reservoirs and rivers' (W=-0.746). Similarly, in the lamprey model, an R2 of 0.58 has been obtained, where the negative influence of the MV "Agricultural nitrate discharge points" (-0.938) stands out substantially. In relation to the scenarios developed for both species, we highlight that the application of measures aimed at reducing anthropogenic pressure manages to mitigate the impact by 4.82% in the case of eel and by 1.37% in the case of lamprey. The set of models and scenarios proposed will make it possible to design preventive and corrective measures to mitigate the impacts affecting these populations, guaranteeing the integrated management of these species, and improving future decision-making, thus strengthening environmental governance.