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The cold temperature associated with new-onset heart failure after incorporating dynamic status of multimorbidity: nationwide cohort, Taiwan 2012-2019.
Chen, Dong-Yi; Chang, Shu-Hao; Huang, Wen-Kuan; Hsieh, I Chang; See, Lai-Chu.
Afiliação
  • Chen DY; Division of Cardiology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital at Linkou, Taoyuan City, Taiwan.
  • Chang SH; Department of Internal Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital at Linkou, Taoyuan City, Taiwan.
  • Huang WK; Department of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan City, Taiwan.
  • Hsieh IC; Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan City, Taiwan.
  • See LC; Department of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan City, Taiwan.
Eur J Prev Cardiol ; 2024 Aug 23.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39177222
ABSTRACT

AIMS:

Cold temperatures are known to affect heart failure (HF) hospitalizations, but the dynamic status of multi-morbidity of HF was rarely incorporated. We investigated the relationship between temperature and new-onset HF by risk strata. METHODS AND

RESULTS:

This nationwide cohort study analysed daily data on ambient temperature, the dynamic status of risk factors (age, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, coronary artery disease, chronic kidney disease, hypertension, myocardial infarction, and atrial fibrillation), and new-onset HF among the Taiwan population from 2012 to 2019. Poisson regression, Austin's algorithm, and classification and regression tree (CART) were used to determine risk strata and obtain the predicted HF rate. 148 708 patients developed new-onset HF over 152.52 million person-years. Three risk strata for HF were identified Stratum 1 was predominantly those without any comorbidity (89.9%); Stratum 2 was those aged 60-69 with 2-3 comorbidities or aged 70+ with 1-2 comorbidities (9.0%), and Stratum 3 was those aged 70+ and had four or more comorbidity (1.1%). The HF incidence rates for these three strata were 25.54, 555.27, and 2315.52 per 100 000 person-years, respectively. The R2 of the Poisson regression with the three risk strata and the daily minimum temperature on the ln HF incidence rates was 77.99%. The risk of HF increased as temperatures decreased, and the slopes were 1.032, 1.040, and 1.034 for Strata 1-3, respectively. The rate ratios of HF at the winter median temperature of 17°C vs. the summer median temperature of 29°C were 1.45, 1.58, and 1.49 for Strata 1-3, respectively. Cross-validation reveals a good fit and predicted HF rates by ambient temperature for the three strata were provided.

CONCLUSION:

Cold temperatures are associated with an increased risk of new-onset HF. Stratum 2 (aged 60-69 with 2-3 comorbidities or aged 70+ with 1-2 comorbidities) are particularly susceptible to cold-related new-onset HF.
Cold temperatures are known to affect heart failure (HF) hospitalizations, but the dynamic status of multi-morbidity of HF was rarely incorporated. Three risk strata for HF were determined for the Taiwan population from 2012 to 2019 Stratum 1 was predominantly young or without comorbidities (89.9%); Stratum 2 was those aged 60­69 with 2­3 comorbidities or aged 70+ with 1­2 comorbidities (9.0%), and Stratum 3 was those aged 70+ and had four or more risk factors (1.1%). The HF incidence rates for these three strata were 25.54, 555.27, and 2315.52 per 100 000 person-years, respectively. The rate ratios of HF at the winter median temperature of 17°C vs. the summer median temperature of 29°C were 1.45, 1.58, and 1.49 for Strata 1­3, respectively. Other than cold temperatures are associated with an increased risk of new-onset HF, Stratum 2 (those aged 60­69 with 2­3 comorbidities or aged 70+ with 1­2 comorbidities) are particularly susceptible to cold-related new-onset HF. Predicted HF rates by ambient temperature for the three strata were provided so that individuals can find their predicted HF rate based on the risk score and the current temperature and, therefore, be amenable to primary preventive efforts.
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Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2024 Tipo de documento: Article

Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2024 Tipo de documento: Article