Combining host immune response biomarkers and clinical scores for early prediction of sepsis in infection patients.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The performance of host immune responses biomarkers and clinical scores was compared to identify infection patient populations at risk of progression to sepsis, ICU admission and mortality. METHODS: Immune response biomarkers were measured and NEWS, SIRS, and MEWS. Logistic and Cox regression models were employed to evaluate the strength of association. RESULTS: IL-10 and NEWS had the strongest association with sepsis development, whereas IL-6 and CRP had the strongest association with ICU admission and in-hospital mortality. IL-6 [HR (95%CI) = 2.68 (1.61-4.46)] was associated with 28-day mortality. Patient subgroups with high IL-10 (≥ 5.03 pg/ml) and high NEWS (> 5 points) values had significantly higher rates of sepsis development (88.3% vs 61.1%; p < 0.001), in-hospital mortality (35.0% vs. 16.7%; p < 0.001), 28-day mortality (25.0% vs. 5.6%; p < 0.001), and ICU admission (66.7% vs. 38.9%; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients exhibiting low severity signs of infection but high IL-10 levels showed an elevated probability of developing sepsis. Combining IL-10 with the NEWS score provides a reliable tool for predicting the progression from infection to sepsis at an early stage. Utilizing IL-6 in the emergency room can help identify patients with low NEWS or SIRS scores.