Value of early blood Th-1 cytokine determination in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Early evaluation of the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) requires measurement of many variables within 48 h after admission. Septic complications (SC) are frequent, and preliminary studies have highlighted the value of prophylactic antibiotherapy; however, single and reliable predictive markers of sepsis are not yet available. The aim of this study was to assess the value of determining early blood Th-1 cytokines and their natural antagonists (interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-1, IL-1ra, and the soluble form of tumor necrosis factor (sTNF) receptors RI and RII) to predict the severity and SC during AP. METHODS: Thirty-seven patients with AP were prospectively included; 25 of them had severe AP, including 8 with SC. Serum cytokines were measured 48 h and 72 h after the onset of AP with an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The optimal severity or SC diagnostic thresholds was determined using receiver operative curves. RESULTS: Severe AP in accordance with the Atlanta criteria were better predicted by C-reactive protein and IL-6 serum determination, albeit these levels could not predict absolutely the death of two patients. In severe AP cases (n = 25) the IL-1 to IL-1-ra ratio was lower in cases further complicated by sepsis ((6+/-4) 10(-3) versus (34+/-13) 10(-3), P < 0.05); moreover, sTNF RI (2497+/-270 pg/ml versus 2133+/-611 pg/ml, P < 0.05) and RII (3751+/-400 pg/ml versus 3045+/-509 pg/ml, P < 0.05) were higher in AP characterized by further SC. The IL-1 to IL-1-ra ratio and IL-1 concentration were dramatically decreased within the first 48 h ((0.4+/-0.4) 10(-3) versus (30+/-11) 10(-3), P < 0.05, and 0.3+/-0.3 versus 15+/-3 ng/l, P < 0.05) in patients with further infection of the pancreatic necrosis (n = 3). The SC diagnosis was better anticipated by an IL-1 to IL-1-ra ratio lower than 5 x 10(-3) or by an sTNF RI higher than 1750 pg/ml and sTNF RII higher than 2750 pg/ml, and the infection of the pancreatic necrosis by an IL-1 concentration <2 ng/l or an IL-1 to IL-1-ra ratio <2 x 10(-3). CONCLUSION: Besides severity markers, IL-1, IL-1-ra, and sTNF RI and RII should be considered in base-line AP assays and, if confirmed by larger studies, could help to screen patients at risk for SC and candidates for prophylactic antibiotherapy with a good negative predictive value.