Unequal climate impacts on global values of natural capital.

Ecosystems generate a wide range of benefits for humans, including some market goods as well as other benefits that are not directly reflected in market activity1. Climate change will alter the distribution of ecosystems around the world and change the flow of these benefits2,3. However, the specific implications of ecosystem changes for human welfare remain unclear, as they depend on the nature of these changes, the value of the affected benefits and the extent to which communities rely on natural systems for their well-being4. Here we estimate country-level changes in economic production and the value of non-market ecosystem benefits resulting from climate-change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover, as projected by dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) driven by general circulation climate models. Our results show that the annual population-weighted mean global flow of non-market ecosystem benefits valued in the wealth accounts of the World Bank will be reduced by 9.2% in 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-6.0 with respect to the baseline no climate change scenario and that the global population-weighted average change in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 is -1.3% of the baseline GDP. Because lower-income countries are more reliant on natural capital, these GDP effects are regressive. Approximately 90% of these damages are borne by the poorest 50% of countries and regions, whereas the wealthiest 10% experience only 2% of these losses.

Causes and consequences of child growth faltering in low-resource settings.

Growth faltering in children (low length for age or low weight for length) during the first 1,000 days of life (from conception to 2 years of age) influences short-term and long-term health and survival1,2. Interventions such as nutritional supplementation during pregnancy and the postnatal period could help prevent growth faltering, but programmatic action has been insufficient to eliminate the high burden of stunting and wasting in low- and middle-income countries. Identification of age windows and population subgroups on which to focus will benefit future preventive efforts. Here we use a population intervention effects analysis of 33 longitudinal cohorts (83,671 children, 662,763 measurements) and 30 separate exposures to show that improving maternal anthropometry and child condition at birth accounted for population increases in length-for-age z-scores of up to 0.40 and weight-for-length z-scores of up to 0.15 by 24 months of age. Boys had consistently higher risk of all forms of growth faltering than girls. Early postnatal growth faltering predisposed children to subsequent and persistent growth faltering. Children with multiple growth deficits exhibited higher mortality rates from birth to 2 years of age than children without growth deficits (hazard ratios 1.9 to 8.7). The importance of prenatal causes and severe consequences for children who experienced early growth faltering support a focus on pre-conception and pregnancy as a key opportunity for new preventive interventions.

The effects of cash transfers on adult and child mortality in low- and middle-income countries.

Poverty is an important social determinant of health that is associated with increased risk of death1-5. Cash transfer programmes provide non-contributory monetary transfers to individuals or households, with or without behavioural conditions such as children's school attendance6,7. Over recent decades, cash transfer programmes have emerged as central components of poverty reduction strategies of many governments in low- and middle-income countries6,7. The effects of these programmes on adult and child mortality rates remains an important gap in the literature, however, with existing evidence limited to a few specific conditional cash transfer programmes, primarily in Latin America8-14. Here we evaluated the effects of large-scale, government-led cash transfer programmes on all-cause adult and child mortality using individual-level longitudinal mortality datasets from many low- and middle-income countries. We found that cash transfer programmes were associated with significant reductions in mortality among children under five years of age and women. Secondary heterogeneity analyses suggested similar effects for conditional and unconditional programmes, and larger effects for programmes that covered a larger share of the population and provided larger transfer amounts, and in countries with lower health expenditures, lower baseline life expectancy, and higher perceived regulatory quality. Our findings support the use of anti-poverty programmes such as cash transfers, which many countries have introduced or expanded during the COVID-19 pandemic, to improve population health.

Childhood vaccines and antibiotic use in low- and middle-income countries.

Vaccines may reduce the burden of antimicrobial resistance, in part by preventing infections for which treatment often includes the use of antibiotics1-4. However, the effects of vaccination on antibiotic consumption remain poorly understood-especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where the burden of antimicrobial resistance is greatest5. Here we show that vaccines that have recently been implemented in the World Health Organization's Expanded Programme on Immunization reduce antibiotic consumption substantially among children under five years of age in LMICs. By analysing data from large-scale studies of households, we estimate that pneumococcal conjugate vaccines and live attenuated rotavirus vaccines confer 19.7% (95% confidence interval, 3.4-43.4%) and 11.4% (4.0-18.6%) protection against antibiotic-treated episodes of acute respiratory infection and diarrhoea, respectively, in age groups that experience the greatest disease burden attributable to the vaccine-targeted pathogens6,7. Under current coverage levels, pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccines prevent 23.8 million and 13.6 million episodes of antibiotic-treated illness, respectively, among children under five years of age in LMICs each year. Direct protection resulting from the achievement of universal coverage targets for these vaccines could prevent an additional 40.0 million episodes of antibiotic-treated illness. This evidence supports the prioritization of vaccines within the global strategy to combat antimicrobial resistance8.

Addressing challenges in low-income and middle-income countries through novel radiotherapy research opportunities.

Although radiotherapy continues to evolve as a mainstay of the oncological armamentarium, research and innovation in radiotherapy in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) faces challenges. This third Series paper examines the current state of LMIC radiotherapy research and provides new data from a 2022 survey undertaken by the International Atomic Energy Agency and new data on funding. In the context of LMIC-related challenges and impediments, we explore several developments and advances-such as deep phenotyping, real-time targeting, and artificial intelligence-to flag specific opportunities with applicability and relevance for resource-constrained settings. Given the pressing nature of cancer in LMICs, we also highlight some best practices and address the broader need to develop the research workforce of the future. This Series paper thereby serves as a resource for radiation professionals.

Justifying access to kidney care in low resource and humanitarian settings.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Access to and quality of kidney care is not equitable between or within countries. A natural question is whether global kidney care inequities are always unjustifiable and unfair, or are sometimes due to unavoidable competing or conflicting ethical duties or responsibilities. RECENT FINDINGS: Health is a fundamental right for all people. People with kidney conditions should have the same claim on this human right as others. Countries have an obligation to progressively fulfil this right and a duty to do so equitably, but global progress has been slow. Countries with limited resources or faced with humanitarian emergencies must set priorities to allocate resources fairly. This process involves trade-offs and often people requiring kidney replacement therapy are left out because of costs, logistics and lack of data. Major burdens are placed on clinicians who grapple between their duty to their patient and professional codes and their responsibility to a 'greater good'. These dilemmas apply also to industry, governments and the international community who must recognize their share in these duties. SUMMARY: Inequities in kidney health and care must be acknowledged and sustainable and collaborative solutions urgently found such that right to kidney care is progressively upheld for everyone everywhere.

Measurements of Impoverishing and Catastrophic Surgical Health Expenditures in Low- and Middle-Income Countries and Reduction Interventions in the Last 30 Years: A Systematic Review.

INTRODUCTION: Approximately 33 million people suffer catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) from surgery and/or anesthesia costs. The aim of this systematic review is to evaluate catastrophic and impoverishing expenditure associated with surgery and anesthesia in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We performed a systematic review of all studies from 1990 to 2021 that reported CHE in LMICs for treatment of a condition requiring surgical intervention, including cesarean section, trauma care, and other surgery. RESULTS: 77 studies met inclusion criteria. Tertiary facilities (23.4%) were the most frequently studied facility type. Only 11.7% of studies were conducted in exclusively rural health-care settings. Almost 60% of studies were retrospective in nature. The cost of procedures ranged widely, from $26 USD for a cesarean section in Mauritania in 2020 to $74,420 for a pancreaticoduodenectomy in India in 2018. GDP per capita had a narrower range from $315 USD in Malawi in 2019 to $9955 USD in Malaysia in 2015 (Median = $1605.50, interquartile range = $1208.74). 35 studies discussed interventions to reduce cost and catastrophic expenditure. Four of those studies stated that their intervention was not successful, 18 had an unknown or equivocal effect on cost and CHE, and 13 concluded that their intervention did help reduce cost and CHE. CONCLUSIONS: CHE from surgery is a worldwide problem that most acutely affects vulnerable patients in LMICs. Existing efforts are insufficient to meet the true need for affordable surgical care unless assistance for ancillary costs is given to patients and families most at risk from CHE.

Acting on non-communicable diseases in low- and middle-income tropical countries.

The classical portrayal of poor health in tropical countries is one of infections and parasites, contrasting with wealthy Western countries, where unhealthy diet and behaviours cause non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as heart disease and cancer. Using international mortality data, we show that most NCDs cause more deaths at every age in low- and middle-income tropical countries than in high-income Western countries. Causes of NCDs in low- and middle-income countries include poor nutrition and living environment, infections, insufficient taxation and regulation of tobacco and alcohol, and under-resourced and inaccessible healthcare. We identify a comprehensive set of actions across health, social, economic and environmental sectors that could confront NCDs in low- and middle-income tropical countries and reduce global health inequalities.

Economic Evaluation of COVID-19 Screening Tests and Surveillance Strategies in Low-Income, Middle-Income, and High-Income Countries: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND Economic evaluation of the testing strategies to control transmission and monitor the severity of COVID-19 after the pandemic is essential. This study aimed to review the economic evaluation of COVID-19 tests and to construct a model with outcomes in terms of cost and test acceptability for surveillance in the post-pandemic period in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. MATERIAL AND METHODS We performed the systematic review following PRISMA guidelines through MEDLINE and EMBASE databases. We included the relevant studies that reported the economic evaluation of COVID-19 tests for surveillance. Also, we input current probability, sensitivity, and specificity for COVID-19 surveillance in the post-pandemic period. RESULTS A total of 104 articles met the eligibility criteria, and 8 articles were reviewed and assessed for quality. The specificity and sensitivity of COVID-19 screening tests were reported as 80% to 90% and 40% to 90%, respectively. The target population presented a mortality rate between 0.2% and 19.2% in the post-pandemic period. The implementation model of COVID-19 screening tests for surveillance with a cost mean for molecular and antigen tests was US$ 46.64 (min-max US $0.25-$105.39) and US $6.15 (min-max US $2-$10), respectively. CONCLUSIONS For the allocation budget for the COVID-19 surveillance test, it is essential to consider the incidence and mortality of the post-pandemic period in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. A robust method to evaluate outcomes is needed to prevent increasing COVID-19 incidents earlier.

Skills-adjusted human capital shows rising global gap.

Human capital, broadly defined as the skills acquired through formal education, is acknowledged as one of the key drivers of economic growth and social development. However, its measurement for the working-age populations, on a global scale and over time, is still unsatisfactory. Most indicators either only consider the quantity dimension of education and disregard the actual skills or are demographically inconsistent by applying the skills of the young cohorts in school to represent the skills of the working-age population at the same time. In the case of rapidly expanding or changing school systems, this assumption is untenable. However, an increasing number of countries have started to assess the literacy skills of their adult populations by age and sex directly. Drawing on this literacy data, and by using demographic backprojection and statistical estimation techniques, we here present a demographically consistent indicator for adult literacy skills, the skills in literacy adjusted mean years of schooling (SLAMYS). The measure is given for the population aged 20 to 64 in 185 countries and for the period 1970 to 2015. Compared to the conventional mean years of schooling (MYS)-which has strongly increased for most countries over the past decades, and in particular among poor countries-the trends in SLAMYS exhibit a widening global skills gap between low- and high-performing countries.

The need for economic evaluations for neuro-oncology in low- and middleincome: the Pakistan perspective.

The incidence and prevalence of brain tumours have steadily increased within low- and middle-income countries, similar to patterns seen in high-income countries. In addition to the epidemiological landscape of brain tumours in Pakistan, it is important to consider the economics of brain tumour diagnosis and management to inform policy on neuro-oncological healthcare service delivery. The challenges associated with conducting economic evaluations in LMICs include the ability to receive funding for country-specific estimates, dearth of existing data and methodological development, and the need for investment in economic evaluations of health. Economic evaluations are most useful when funding support is given to country-specific initiatives to allocate resources. Cost and cost components must also be meticulously collected to enable accurate calculations of economic evidence for the decision-making process. To put neuro-oncological care at the forefront of the national health agenda, it is crucial for vigorous epidemiological and economic evidence to be available for policymakers.