Polio eradication: Addressing the hurdles on the last mile.

1988, the World Health Assembly committed to eradicate poliomyelitis, a viral disease that can cause permanent paralysis. Today, only type 1 of the three wild poliovirus types remains circulating in limited geographic areas following widespread use of different poliovirus vaccines. While we are close to zero new cases of wild polio, it is a fragile situation, and there are many remaining and new hurdles to overcome. Here, experts discuss how to address them.

Experimental Evolution to Study Virus Emergence.

Understanding how viruses adapt to new environments and acquire new phenotypes is critical for developing comprehensive responses to outbreaks. By studying the emergence of vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreaks, Stern et al. describe how a combination of sequence analysis and experimental evolution can be used to reveal adaptive pathways.

Safety of the novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) in infants and young children aged 1 to <5 years and lot-to-lot consistency of the immune response to nOPV2 in infants in The Gambia: a phase 3, double-blind, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) has been engineered to improve the genetic stability of Sabin oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and reduce the emergence of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses. This trial aimed to provide key safety and immunogenicity data required for nOPV2 licensure and WHO prequalification. METHODS: This phase 3 trial recruited infants aged 18 to <52 weeks and young children aged 1 to <5 years in The Gambia. Infants randomly assigned to receive one or two doses of one of three lots of nOPV2 or one lot of bivalent OPV (bOPV). Young children were randomised to receive two doses of nOPV2 lot 1 or bOPV. The primary immunogenicity objective was to assess lot-to-lot equivalence of the three nOPV2 lots based on one-dose type 2 poliovirus neutralising antibody seroconversion rates in infants. Equivalence was declared if the 95% CI for the three pairwise rate differences was within the -10% to 10% equivalence margin. Tolerability and safety were assessed based on the rates of solicited adverse events to 7 days, unsolicited adverse events to 28 days, and serious adverse events to 3 months post-dose. Stool poliovirus excretion was examined. The trial was registered as PACTR202010705577776 and is completed. FINDINGS: Between February and October, 2021, 2345 infants and 600 young children were vaccinated. 2272 (96·9%) were eligible for inclusion in the post-dose one per-protocol population. Seroconversion rates ranged from 48·9% to 49·2% across the three lots. The minimum lower bound of the 95% CIs for the pairwise differences in seroconversion rates between lots was -5·8%. The maximum upper bound was 5·4%. Equivalence was therefore shown. Of those seronegative at baseline, 143 (85·6%) of 167 (95% CI 79·4-90·6) infants and 54 (83·1%) of 65 (71·7-91·2) young children seroconverted over the two-dose nOPV2 schedule. The post-two-dose seroprotection rates, including participants who were both seronegative and seropositive at baseline, were 604 (92·9%) of 650 (95% CI 90·7-94·8) in infants and 276 (95·5%) of 289 (92·4-97·6) in young children. No safety concerns were identified. 7 days post-dose one, 78 (41·7%) of 187 (95% CI 34·6-49·1) infants were excreting the type 2 poliovirus. INTERPRETATION: nOPV2 was immunogenic and safe in infants and young children in The Gambia. The data support the licensure and WHO prequalification of nOPV2. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Modeling Poliovirus Transmission and Responses in New York State.

BACKGROUND: In July 2022, New York State (NYS) reported a case of paralytic polio in an unvaccinated young adult, and subsequent wastewater surveillance confirmed sustained local transmission of type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2) in NYS with genetic linkage to the paralyzed patient. METHODS: We adapted an established poliovirus transmission and oral poliovirus vaccine evolution model to characterize dynamics of poliovirus transmission in NYS, including consideration of the immunization activities performed as part of the declared state of emergency. RESULTS: Despite sustained transmission of imported VDPV2 in NYS involving potentially thousands of individuals (depending on seasonality, population structure, and mixing assumptions) in 2022, the expected number of additional paralytic cases in years 2023 and beyond is small (less than 0.5). However, continued transmission and/or reintroduction of poliovirus into NYS and other populations remains a possible risk in communities that do not achieve and maintain high immunization coverage. CONCLUSIONS: In countries such as the United States that use only inactivated poliovirus vaccine, even with high average immunization coverage, imported polioviruses may circulate and pose a small but nonzero risk of causing paralysis in nonimmune individuals.

Impact of Supplementary Immunization Activities using Novel Oral Polio Vaccine Type 2 during a Large outbreak of Circulating Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Novel oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) type 2 (nOPV2) has been made available for outbreak response under an emergency use listing authorization based on supportive clinical trial data. Since 2021 more than 350 million doses of nOPV2 were used for control of a large outbreak of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) in Nigeria. METHODS: Using a bayesian time-series susceptible-infectious-recovered model, we evaluate the field effectiveness of nOPV2 immunization campaigns in Nigeria compared with campaigns using monovalent OPV type 2 (mOPV2). RESULTS: We found that both nOPV2 and mOPV2 campaigns were highly effective in reducing transmission of cVDPV2, on average reducing the susceptible population by 42% (95% confidence interval, 28-54%) and 38% (20-51%) per campaign, respectively, which were indistinguishable from each other in this analysis (relative effect, 1.1 [.7-1.9]). Impact was found to vary across areas and between immunization campaigns. CONCLUSIONS: These results are consistent with the comparable individual immunogenicity of nOPV2 and mOPV2 found in clinical trials but also suggest that outbreak response campaigns may have small impacts in some areas requiring more campaigns than are suggested in current outbreak response procedures.

Mucosal Immunity to Poliovirus in Children 0-15 Years of Age: A Community-Based Study in Karachi, Pakistan in 2019.

This study assesses poliovirus type 1 (PV1) immunity in children to inform the contribution of mucosal immunity in and prevention of poliovirus circulation. A community-based study was conducted in periurban Karachi, Pakistan. Randomly selected children (0-15 years of age) received oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) challenge dose. Blood and stool samples were collected at several time points and evaluated for polio-neutralizing antibodies and serotype-specific poliovirus, respectively. Eighty-one of 589 (14%) children excreted PV1 7 days post-OPV challenge; 70 of 81 (86%) were seropositive at baseline. Twelve of 610 (2%) were asymptomatic wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) excretors. Most poliovirus excretors had humoral immunity, suggesting mucosal immunity in these children likely waned or never developed. Without mucosal immunity, they are susceptible to poliovirus infection, shedding, and transmission. Asymptomatic WPV1 excretion suggests undetected poliovirus circulation within the community.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Pakistan, January 2023-June 2024.

Since its launch in 1988, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative has made substantial progress toward the eradication of wild poliovirus (WPV), including eradicating two of the three serotypes, and reducing the countries with ongoing endemic transmission of WPV type 1 (WPV1) to just Afghanistan and Pakistan. Both countries are considered a single epidemiologic block. Despite the occurrence of only a single confirmed WPV1 case during the first half of 2023, Pakistan experienced widespread circulation of WPV1 over the subsequent 12 months, specifically in the historical reservoirs of the cities of Karachi, Peshawar, and Quetta. As of June 30, 2024, eight WPV1 cases had been reported in Pakistan in 2024, compared with six reported during all of 2023. These cases, along with more than 300 WPV1-positive environmental surveillance (sewage) samples reported during 2023-2024, indicate that Pakistan is not on track to interrupt WPV1 transmission. The country's complex sociopolitical and security environment continues to pose formidable challenges to poliovirus elimination. To interrupt WPV1 transmission, sustained political commitment to polio eradication, including increased accountability at all levels, would be vital for the polio program. Efforts to systematically track and vaccinate children who are continually missed during polio vaccination activities should be enhanced by better addressing operational issues and the underlying reasons for community resistance to vaccination and vaccine hesitancy.

Surveillance To Track Progress Toward Polio Eradication - Worldwide, 2022-2023.

The reliable and timely detection of poliovirus cases through surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP), supplemented by environmental surveillance of sewage samples, is a critical component of the polio eradication program. Since 1988, the number of polio cases caused by wild poliovirus (WPV) has declined by >99.9%, and eradication of WPV serotypes 2 and 3 has been certified; only serotype 1 (WPV1) continues to circulate, and transmission remains endemic in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This surveillance update evaluated indicators from AFP surveillance, environmental surveillance for polioviruses, and Global Polio Laboratory Network performance data provided by 28 priority countries for the program during 2022-2023. No WPV1 cases have been detected outside of Afghanistan and Pakistan since August 2022, when an importation into Malawi and Mozambique resulted in an outbreak during 2021-2022. During 2022-2023, among 28 priority countries, 20 (71.4%) met national AFP surveillance indicator targets, and the number of environmental surveillance sites increased. However, low national rates of reported AFP cases in priority countries in 2023 might have resulted from surveillance reporting lags; substantial national and subnational AFP surveillance gaps persist. Maintaining high-quality surveillance is critical to achieving the goal of global polio eradication. Monitoring surveillance indicators is important to identifying gaps and guiding surveillance-strengthening activities, particularly in countries at high risk for poliovirus circulation.

Persistent Transmission of Circulating Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus - Somalia, January 2017-March 2024.

Since the launch of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative in 1988, substantial progress has been made in the interruption of wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission worldwide: global eradication of WPV types 2 and 3 were certified in 2015 and 2019, respectively, and endemic transmission of WPV type 1 continues only in Afghanistan and Pakistan. After the synchronized global withdrawal of all serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs) in 2016, widespread outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) have occurred, which are linked to areas with low population immunity to poliovirus. Officials in Somalia have detected ongoing cVDPV2 transmission since 2017. Polio vaccination coverage and surveillance data for Somalia were reviewed to assess this persistent transmission. During January 2017-March 2024, officials in Somalia detected 39 cVDPV2 cases in 14 of 20 regions, and transmission has spread to neighboring Ethiopia and Kenya. Since January 2021, 28 supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) targeting cVDPV2 were conducted in Somalia. Some parts of the country are security-compromised and inaccessible for vaccination campaigns. Among 1,921 children with nonpolio acute flaccid paralysis, 231 (12%) had not received OPV doses through routine immunization or SIAs, 95% of whom were from the South-Central region, and 60% of whom lived in inaccessible districts. Enhancing humanitarian negotiation measures in Somalia to enable vaccination of children in security-compromised areas and strengthening campaign quality in accessible areas will help interrupt cVDPV2 transmission.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Worldwide, January 2022-December 2023.

In 1988, poliomyelitis (polio) was targeted for eradication. Global efforts have led to the eradication of two of the three wild poliovirus (WPV) serotypes (types 2 and 3), with only WPV type 1 (WPV1) remaining endemic, and only in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This report describes global polio immunization, surveillance activities, and poliovirus epidemiology during January 2022-December 2023, using data current as of April 10, 2024. In 2023, Afghanistan and Pakistan identified 12 total WPV1 polio cases, compared with 22 in 2022. WPV1 transmission was detected through systematic testing for poliovirus in sewage samples (environmental surveillance) in 13 provinces in Afghanistan and Pakistan, compared with seven provinces in 2022. The number of polio cases caused by circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs; circulating vaccine virus strains that have reverted to neurovirulence) decreased from 881 in 2022 to 524 in 2023; cVDPV outbreaks (defined as either a cVDPV case with evidence of circulation or at least two positive environmental surveillance isolates) occurred in 32 countries in 2023, including eight that did not experience a cVDPV outbreak in 2022. Despite reductions in paralytic polio cases from 2022, cVDPV cases and WPV1 cases (in countries with endemic transmission) were more geographically widespread in 2023. Renewed efforts to vaccinate persistently missed children in countries and territories where WPV1 transmission is endemic, strengthen routine immunization programs in countries at high risk for poliovirus transmission, and provide more effective cVDPV outbreak responses are necessary to further progress toward global polio eradication.

Global polio eradication; can we replicate the smallpox success story?

Although the Global Polio Eradication Initiative has been largely successful in elimination of polio from various parts of the world, sporadic local outbreaks in non-endemic areas continue to pose a threat to global polio eradication efforts. In the two endemic countries, Pakistan and Afghanistan, a staggering 176 cases of wild poliovirus 1 (WPV1) were reported in 2019. In 2020 alone, 959 cases of Circulating Vaccine Derived Poliovirus 2 were reported globally from 27 countries. After staying polio-free for years, cases of WPV were detected in Malawi and Mozambique in 2022. The roots of the reported strains matched with the WPV strain from Pakistan. The emergence of WPV cases in Malawi and Mozambique underscores the fact that WPV still has the chance to spread beyond the Afghanistan-Pakistan region and sustained efforts are required for its complete eradication. In the case of smallpox, surveillance-containment was the key to eradication as many countries had already eradicated smallpox and the bigger concern was to track and contain any new cases emerging. Smallpox eradication followed a comprehensive plan which included elements like quality control and standardisation of vaccination protocols. Governments all over the world should prioritise immunisation drives, surveillance, and awareness campaigns to achieve the dream of a polio-free world.

Circulating vaccine derived polio virus type 2 outbreak and response in Yemen, 2021-2022, a retrospective descriptive analysis.

BACKGROUND: The outbreaks of circulating Vaccine Derived Polio Viruses (cVDPVs) have emerged as a major challenge for the final stage of polio eradication. In Yemen, an explosive outbreak of cVDPV2 was reported from August 2021 to December 2022. This study aims to compare the patterns of cVDPV2 outbreak, response measures taken by health authorities, and impacts in southern and northern governorates. METHOD: A retrospective descriptive study of confirmed cases of VDPV2 was performed. The data related to cVDPV2 as well as stool specimens and environmental samples that were shipped to WHO-accredited labs were collected by staff of surveillance. Frequencies and percentages were used to characterize and compare the confirmed cases from the southern and northern governorates. The average delayed time as a difference in days between the date of sample collection and lab confirmation was calculated. RESULTS: The cVDPV2 was isolated from 227 AFP cases reported from 19/23 Yemeni governorates and from 83% (39/47) of environmental samples with an average of 7 months delayed from sample collection. However, the non-polio AFP (NPAFP) and adequate stool specimen rates in the north were 6.7 and 87% compared to 6.4 and 87% in the south, 86% (195) and 14%(32) out of the total 227 confirmed cases were detected from northern and southern governorates, respectively. The first and second cases of genetically linked isolates experienced paralysis onset on 30 August and 1st September 2021. They respectively were from Taiz and Marib governorates ruled by southern authorities that started vaccination campaigns as a response in February 2022. Thus, in contrast to 2021, the detected cases in 2022 from the total cases detected in the south were lower accounting for 22% (7 of 32) of compared to 79% (155 of 195) of the total cases the north. CONCLUSION: A new emerging cVDPV2 was confirmed in Yemen. The result of this study highlighted the impact of vaccination campaigns in containing the cVDPV2 outbreak. Maintaining a high level of immunization coverage and switching to nOPV2 instead of tOPV and mOPV2 in campaigns are recommended and environmental surveillance should be expanded in such a risky country.

Monitoring the VDPV2 outbreak in Egypt during 2020-2021 highlights the crucial role of environmental surveillance and boosting immunization in combating Poliovirus.

BACKGROUND: Poliovirus is a highly infectious enterovirus (EV) that primarily affects children and can lead to lifelong paralysis or even death. Vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) are a great threat since they are derived from the attenuated virus in the Oral Poliovirus Vaccine (OPV) and can mutate to a more virulent form. The purpose of this study was to identify VDPV serotype 2 through the year 2020-2021 via surveillance of sewage samples collected from different localities and governorates in Egypt and stool specimens from Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) cases. Both were collected through the national poliovirus surveillance system and according to the guidelines recommended by the WHO. METHODS: A total of 1266 sewage samples and 3241 stool samples from January 2020 to December 2021 were investigated in the lab according to World Health Organization (WHO) protocol for the presence of Polioviruses by cell culture, molecular identification of positive isolates on L20B cell line was carried out using real-time polymerase chain reactions (RT-PCR). Any positive isolates for Poliovirus type 2 and isolates suspected of Vaccine Derived Poliovirus Type 1 and type 3 screened by (VDPV1) or Vaccine Poliovirus Type 3 (VDPV3) assay in RT-PCR were referred for VP1 genetic sequencing. RESULTS: The outbreak was caused by circulating VDPV2 (cVDPV2) strains started in January 2021. By the end of February 2021, a total of 11 cVDPV2s were detected in sewage samples from six governorates confirming the outbreak situation. One additional cVDPV2 was detected later in the sewage sample from Qena (June 2021). The first and only re-emergence of VDPV2 in stool samples during the outbreak was in contact with Luxor in June 2021. By November 2021, a total of 80 VDPVs were detected. The Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population (MOHP), in collaboration with the WHO, responded quickly by launching two massive vaccination campaigns targeting children under the age of five. Additionally, surveillance systems were strengthened to detect new cases and prevent further spread of the virus. CONCLUSION: The continued threat of poliovirus and VDPVs requires ongoing efforts to prevent their emergence and spread. Strategies such as improving immunization coverage, using genetically stable vaccines, and establishing surveillance systems are critical to achieving global eradication of poliovirus and efficient monitoring of VDPVs outbreaks.

Poliomyelitis and COVID-19: a repeated history.

The measurement of the enterovirus and the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in sewage water is relevant in the early detection of the introduction or disappearance of these viruses in the ecosystem. We evaluated the co-circulation of the enteroviruses and SARS-CoV-2 in 81 sewage water samples collected between September 2021 and April 2023 from different regions of north and southeast Romania, at the border with Ukraine. We used, for the molecular detection of the pathogens, the multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay produced for respiratory samples and the Respiratory 2.1 Plus panel Biofire Film array. The isolation of enteroviruses was performed on cell culture lines, in accordance with the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations. By molecular investigations, we detected the SARS-CoV-2 in 22 (27%) samples, and the human rhinovirus/enterovirus in 64 (79%) samples. By isolation on cell culture lines, 27 samples (33,33%) were positive for non-polio enteroviruses, and no poliovirus strains were isolated, proving the maintenance of the polio-free status in Romania. In an emergency situation, the molecular detection of the pathogens in sewage water using a PCR system integrating sample preparation, amplification, detection, and analysis in 1 h could be implemented.

Effective partnership and in-country resource mobilization in Sudan for cVDPV2 outbreak response amid multiple emergencies in 2020-2021.

BACKGROUND: During 2020 and immediately prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Sudan was experiencing multiple emergencies including violence, seasonal flooding, and vector-borne disease outbreaks. After more than ten years since its last case of wild poliovirus, Sudan declared a circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreak on 9 August 2020. METHODS: cVDPV2 outbreak response data and programme documents of the Federal Ministry of Health and WHO were reviewed. Surveillance data was verified through WHO-recommended procedures for detecting and characterizing polioviruses from stool and sewage samples collected from acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases and the environment. RESULTS: This outbreak in Sudan led to a total of 58 confirmed cases of cVDPV2 from 15 of the 18 states. Two nationwide vaccination campaigns were held to increase immunity of children under-five against poliovirus type 2. Funding challenges were overcome by intense additional resource mobilization from in-country sources. The funding gap was bridged from domestic resources (49%) sourced through GPEI partners, and in-country humanitarian funding mechanisms. CONCLUSIONS: During an outbreak response and challenge of funding shortfall, mobilizing in-country resources is possible through coordinated approaches, regular communication with partners, disaggregation of needs, and matching in-kind and financial support to fill gaps. A cVDPV2 outbreak requires a fast, resourced, and quality response to stop virus circulation.

Evaluation of 17 years of MERIN (Meningitis and Encephalitis register in Lower Saxony, Germany) surveillance system: participants acceptability survey, completeness and timeliness of data.

BACKGROUND: A Meningitis and Encephalitis Surveillance (MERIN) was implemented in 2003 in Lower Saxony, Germany as an alternative to acute flaccid paralyses surveillance, as the latter did not reach WHO sensitivity criteria. The system provides information on circulating enterovirus (EV) serotypes by focussing on patients with suspected aseptic meningitis, encephalitis or acute flaccid paralysis and contributes to the national surveillance in documenting polio free status. MERIN is based on voluntary participation of hospitals. Therefore, our evaluation focusses on acceptability of the system's objectives and performance, and identifying areas for improvement. METHODS: To assess acceptability, 32 contributing hospitals were invited to an online-based survey (11/2021 to 01/2022) to rate the MERIN objectives, laboratory's performance, their workload, modes of processes and communication. Ideas for improvement were collected in open fields. In addition, data completeness and timeliness of laboratory diagnostics were assessed. RESULTS: Of 32 hospitals, 21 responded (66% response rate), sending 30 questionnaires, 25 from pediatric and 5 from neurological departments. High levels of satisfaction with the communication (≥ 96%), timeliness (≥ 81%), and distribution of the results (≥ 85%) were reported, 97% of participants judged the required workload as adequate. The median proportion of eligible patients included in MERIN was 75%. Participants gave rapid and reliable diagnostic testing the highest priority (96%), while monitoring of Germany's polio-free status was rated the lowest (61%). Providing medical reports digitally as well as regular updates about circulating EV serotypes were identified as areas for improvement. Data completeness of selected variables ranged from 78.3 to 99.9%. Median time between sample collection and arrival at laboratory was 2 days [IQR 1-3], EV diagnostics via PCR took one day [IQR 0-6] and EV isolation on cell culture 11 days [IQR 10-13]. CONCLUSION: MERIN is a highly accepted surveillance system. Its quality was enhanced further by addressing the suggested improvements such as regular reports on circulating EV serotypes and facilitating digital access to laboratory results. Our results emphasise the importance of recognizing and considering participants' motivations and expectations, and addressing their priorities, even if this is not the surveillance system's main focus. This approach can be applied to surveillance systems of other non-mandatory notifiable diseases.