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1.
Clin Infect Dis ; 45(5): 527-33, 2007 Sep 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17682984

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In contrast to pharmaceutical manufacturers, compounding pharmacies adhere to different quality-control standards, which may increase the likelihood of undetected outbreaks. In 2005, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention received reports of cases of Serratia marcescens bloodstream infection occurring in patients who underwent cardiac surgical procedures in Los Angeles, California, and in New Jersey. An investigation was initiated to determine whether there was a common underlying cause. METHODS: A matched case-control study was conducted in Los Angeles. Case record review and environmental testing were conducted in New Jersey. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention performed a multistate case-finding investigation; isolates were compared using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis analysis. RESULTS: Nationally distributed magnesium sulfate solution (MgSO(4)) from compounding pharmacy X was the only significant risk factor for S. marcescens bloodstream infection (odds ratio, 6.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-38.3) among 6 Los Angeles case patients and 18 control subjects. Five New Jersey case patients received MgSO(4) from a single lot produced by compounding pharmacy X; culture of samples from open and unopened 50-mL bags in this lot yielded S. marcescens. Seven additional case patients from 3 different states were identified. Isolates from all 18 case patients and from samples of MgSO(4) demonstrated indistinguishable pulsed-field gel electrophoresis patterns. Compounding pharmacy X voluntarily recalled the product. Neither the pharmacy nor the US Food and Drug Administration could identify a source of contamination in their investigations of compounding pharmacy X. CONCLUSIONS: A multistate outbreak of S. marcescens bloodstream infection was linked to contaminated MgSO(4) distributed nationally by a compounding pharmacy. Health care personnel should take into account the different quality standards and regulation of compounded parenteral medications distributed in large quantities during investigations of outbreaks of bloodstream infection.


Subject(s)
Bacteremia/epidemiology , Cardiovascular Agents/adverse effects , Disease Outbreaks , Drug Contamination , Magnesium Sulfate/adverse effects , Serratia Infections/etiology , Serratia marcescens/pathogenicity , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Bacteremia/microbiology , Cardiac Surgical Procedures , Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S./statistics & numerical data , Cross Infection/epidemiology , Cross Infection/microbiology , Drug Compounding/adverse effects , Drug Compounding/standards , Female , Humans , Los Angeles/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , New Jersey/epidemiology , Risk Factors , Serratia Infections/epidemiology , Serratia marcescens/isolation & purification , United States
2.
Public Health Rep ; 122(3): 311-8, 2007.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17518302

ABSTRACT

To describe state-level actions and policies during the 2004-2005 influenza vaccine shortage and determine whether these or other factors were related to vaccination coverage, we surveyed all state health departments (including the District of Columbia). We included 2004-2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data to examine whether state-level actions, policies, or other factors like vaccine supply were related to changes in vaccination coverage in adults aged > or = 65 years from the previous non-shortage year. We found that 96% (n = 49) of states reported adopting or recommending adherence to the initial national interim influenza vaccination recommendations. Of these, at some point during the season, 22% (n = 11) reported local public health agencies issued prioritization recommendations that differed from the state health department's guidance. Eighty percent (n = 41) initiated at least one emergency response activity and 43% (n = 22) referred to or implemented components of their pandemic influenza plans. In 35% (n = 18), emergency or executive orders were issued or legislative action occurred. In a multivariable linear regression model, the availability and use of practitioner contact lists and having a relatively high vaccine supply in early October 2004 were associated with smaller decreases in coverage for adults aged > or = 65 years from the previous non-shortage season (p = 0.003, r2 = 0.26). States over-whelmingly followed national vaccination prioritization guidelines and used a range of activities to manage the 2004-2005 vaccine shortage. The availability and use of practitioner contact lists and having a relatively high vaccine supply early in the season were associated with smaller decreases in coverage from the previous non-shortage season.


Subject(s)
Government Agencies/organization & administration , Health Policy , Influenza Vaccines/supply & distribution , Public Health Administration , State Government , Aged , Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System , Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. , Guidelines as Topic , Humans , United States
3.
JAMA ; 296(20): 2476-9, 2006 Nov 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17119144

ABSTRACT

CONTEXT: Botulism is a potentially lethal paralytic disease caused primarily by toxins of the anaerobic, spore-forming bacterium Clostridium botulinum. Although botulinum toxin A is available by prescription for cosmetic and therapeutic use, no cases of botulism with detectable serum toxin have previously been attributed to cosmetic or therapeutic botulinum toxin injections. On November 27, 2004, 4 suspected botulism case-patients with a link to cosmetic botulinum toxin injections were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the clinical, epidemiological, and laboratory aspects of 4 suspected cases of iatrogenic botulism. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: Case series on 4 botulism case-patients. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Clinical characteristics of the 4 case-patients, epidemiological associations, and mouse bioassay neutralization test results from case-patient specimens and a toxin sample. RESULTS: Clinical characteristics of the 4 case-patients were consistent with those of naturally occurring botulism. All case-patients had been injected with a highly concentrated, unlicensed preparation of botulinum toxin A and may have received doses 2857 times the estimated human lethal dose by injection. Pretreatment serum toxin levels in 3 of the 4 case-patients were equivalent to 21 to 43 times the estimated human lethal dose; pretreatment serum from the fourth epidemiologically linked case-patient was not available. A 100-microg vial of toxin taken from the same manufacturer's lot as toxin administered to the case-patients contained a toxin amount sufficient to kill approximately 14,286 adults by injection if disseminated evenly. CONCLUSIONS: These laboratory-confirmed cases of botulism demonstrate that clinical use of unlicensed botulinum toxin A can result in severe, life-threatening illness. Further education and regulation are needed to prevent the inappropriate marketing, sale, and clinical use of unlicensed botulinum toxin products.


Subject(s)
Botulinum Toxins, Type A , Botulism/etiology , Cosmetic Techniques/adverse effects , Iatrogenic Disease , Botulinum Toxins, Type A/administration & dosage , Botulinum Toxins, Type A/blood , Botulinum Toxins, Type A/standards , Botulinum Toxins, Type A/supply & distribution , Botulism/blood , Botulism/diagnosis , Botulism/epidemiology , Cluster Analysis , Cosmetic Techniques/standards , Humans , Iatrogenic Disease/epidemiology , Legislation, Drug , Lethal Dose 50 , United States
4.
MD Advis ; 14(1): 15-16, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35838619
5.
Sarcoidosis Vasc Diffuse Lung Dis ; 22(2): 147-53, 2005 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-16053031

ABSTRACT

AIM: To assess lung involvement and the association of demographic and psychosocial factors with respiratory health in 736 persons with sarcoidosis at enrollment in A Case Control Etiologic Study of Sarcoidosis (ACCESS). METHODS: 736 patients with biopsy diagnosis of sarcoidosis within 6 months of enrollment were studied at 10 US centers. Lung involvement was evaluated by chest radiography, spirometry and dyspnea questionnaire. Demographics, number of involved extrathoracic organ systems, comorbidities, and health-related quality of life (HRQL) were assessed. RESULTS: 95% of patients had lung involvement. 8% were Scadding Stage 0, 40% I, 37% II, 10% III, and 5% IV 51% reported dyspnea. Increasing radiographic lung stage was associated with decreasing Forced Vital Capacity (FVC) (p < 0.01). Patients with higher stages had more airways obstruction and dyspnea. 46% of cases and 27% of controls had Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) scores of 9 or greater, (p < 0.001). Age > or = 40, African-American race, body mass index > or = 30kg/m2, and CES-D scores > 9 were associated with decreased FVC and greater dyspnea. Impaired spirometry and greater dyspnea were associated with poorer quality of life. CONCLUSION: A "global" approach to the sarcoidosis patient, including careful assessment of dyspnea and health related quality of life, as well as of lung function and radiographic changes, and any extrathoracic involvement, is important, not only in management of the individual patient, but should also prove beneficial in assessing outcomes in clinical trials in the future.


Subject(s)
Psychological Tests , Quality of Life , Sarcoidosis, Pulmonary , Adult , Black or African American/ethnology , Biopsy , Case-Control Studies , Depression/diagnosis , Depression/epidemiology , Depression/psychology , Dyspnea/diagnosis , Dyspnea/epidemiology , Dyspnea/psychology , Female , Humans , Incidence , Male , Predictive Value of Tests , Prognosis , Radiography, Thoracic , Sarcoidosis, Pulmonary/diagnosis , Sarcoidosis, Pulmonary/epidemiology , Sarcoidosis, Pulmonary/psychology , Severity of Illness Index , Spirometry , Surveys and Questionnaires , United States/epidemiology
7.
Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol ; 24(11): 848-52, 2003 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-14649774

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To characterize risk factors for invasive pneumococcal infection in a nursing home outbreak. DESIGN: Outbreak investigation, case-control study. SETTING: A 114-bed nursing home in New Jersey. PARTICIPANTS: Case-patients were nursing home residents hospitalized with febrile respiratory illness and radiographic findings consistent with pneumonia, and either sputum specimens positive for diplococci or blood cultures positive for Streptococcus pneumoniae, with illness onset during April 3-24, 2001. Control-patients were selected randomly from remaining residents without respiratory symptoms. METHODS: Chart reviews were performed for case-patients and control-patients. Serotyping and susceptibility testing were performed on S. pneumoniae isolates. Long-term-care facilities (LTCFs) were surveyed to assess compliance with a state regulation mandating pneumococcal vaccination of residents 65 years and older. RESULTS: Nine case-patients were identified, with a median age of 86 years (range, 78 to 100 years). The median age of control-patients was 86 years (range, 58 to 95 years). No case-patients versus 9 (50%) control-patients received pneumococcal vaccine before the outbreak (OR, 0; CI95, 0-0.7). Recent antibiotic use, pneumonia history, and physical functioning were not associated with illness. Illness attack rate was 16% among all unvaccinated residents versus 0 among vaccinated residents. S. pneumoniae serotype 14, included in pneumococcal vaccine, was isolated from blood cultures of 7 case-patients. Of 361 LTCFs (42%) that replied to the survey, 28 (8%) were not complying with state immunization regulations. CONCLUSIONS: This outbreak occurred in an LTCF with low vaccine coverage. Implementing standing order programs, enforcing regulations, documenting vaccinations, and providing education might increase coverage among nursing home residents.


Subject(s)
Cross Infection/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Mandatory Programs/legislation & jurisprudence , Nursing Homes/standards , Pneumococcal Vaccines/administration & dosage , Pneumonia, Pneumococcal/epidemiology , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Case-Control Studies , Cross Infection/microbiology , Cross Infection/transmission , Female , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice , Humans , Infection Control/legislation & jurisprudence , Infection Control/statistics & numerical data , Male , New Jersey/epidemiology , Nursing Homes/legislation & jurisprudence , Pneumonia, Pneumococcal/microbiology , Pneumonia, Pneumococcal/prevention & control , Risk Factors , Serotyping , Streptococcus pneumoniae/isolation & purification , Streptococcus pneumoniae/pathogenicity , Vaccination/legislation & jurisprudence
8.
Sarcoidosis Vasc Diffuse Lung Dis ; 20(3): 204-11, 2003 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-14620163

ABSTRACT

A cohort of 215 sarcoidosis patients from the ACCESS study underwent a clinical evaluation at study enrollment and two years later. Approximately 80% of subjects had an improved or stable FVC, FEV1, chest radiograph determined by Scadding stage, and dyspnea scale. African-Americans had less improvement in FVC than Caucasians (p = 0.04). Patients with erythema nodosum at presentation were more likely to have improvement in the chest radiograph at two-year follow-up (p = 0.007). Patients with a lower annual family income were more likely to worsen with respect to dyspnea (p = 0.01) and more likely to have new organ involvement at two-year follow-up (p = 0.045). The development of new organ involvement over the two year follow-up period was more common in African-Americans compared to Caucasians (p = 0.002) and more likely in those with extrapulmonary involvement at study entry (p = 0.003). There was an excellent concordance between changes in FVC and FEV1 over the two-year period. However, changes in FVC alone were inadequate to describe the change in pulmonary status of the patients, as changes in chest radiographic findings or the level of dyspnea did often but not always move in the same direction as FVC. In conclusion, data from this heterogeneous United States sarcoidosis population indicate that sarcoidosis tends to improve or remain stable over two years in the majority of patients. Several factors associated with improved or worse outcome over two years were identified.


Subject(s)
Black or African American , Sarcoidosis/complications , Sarcoidosis/pathology , White People , Adult , Case-Control Studies , Cohort Studies , Disease Progression , Dyspnea/classification , Dyspnea/etiology , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Prognosis , Respiratory Function Tests , United States
9.
JAMA ; 291(16): 1994-8, 2004 Apr 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-15113818

ABSTRACT

CONTEXT: Little is known about potential long-term health effects of bioterrorism-related Bacillus anthracis infection. OBJECTIVE: To describe the relationship between anthrax infection and persistent somatic symptoms among adults surviving bioterrorism-related anthrax disease approximately 1 year after illness onset in 2001. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Cross-sectional study of 15 of 16 adult survivors from September through December 2002 using a clinical interview, a medical review-of-system questionnaire, 2 standardized self-administered questionnaires, and a review of available medical records. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Health complaints summarized by the body system affected and by symptom categories; psychological distress measured by the Revised 90-Item Symptom Checklist; and health-related quality-of-life indices by the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (version 2). RESULTS: The anthrax survivors reported symptoms affecting multiple body systems, significantly greater overall psychological distress (P<.001), and significantly reduced health-related quality-of-life indices compared with US referent populations. Eight survivors (53%) had not returned to work since their infection. Comparing disease manifestations, inhalational survivors reported significantly lower overall physical health than cutaneous survivors (mean scores, 30 vs 41; P =.02). Available medical records could not explain the persisting health complaints. CONCLUSION: The anthrax survivors continued to report significant health problems and poor life adjustment 1 year after onset of bioterrorism-related anthrax disease.


Subject(s)
Anthrax , Bioterrorism , Quality of Life , Survivors , Absenteeism , Adult , Anthrax/physiopathology , Anthrax/psychology , Bioterrorism/psychology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Follow-Up Studies , Health Status , Health Status Indicators , Humans , Middle Aged , Respiratory Tract Infections/microbiology , Respiratory Tract Infections/physiopathology , Respiratory Tract Infections/psychology , Skin Diseases, Bacterial/microbiology , Skin Diseases, Bacterial/physiopathology , Skin Diseases, Bacterial/psychology , Stress, Psychological , Survivors/psychology , United States
10.
N J Med ; 101(9 Suppl): 45-50; quiz 50-2, 2004 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-15497734

ABSTRACT

The DHSS and federal agencies have expanded their surveillance efforts to improve existing methods of reporting notifiable communicable diseases and to include additional data sources that might provide a more comprehensive view of disease activity in New Jersey. Currently, the DHSS is evaluating these efforts and recognizes several issues that need to be addressed, including: assessment of the timeliness, completeness, and accuracy of surveillance data; validation of surveillance data through comparison with hospital uniform billing data; characterization of the sensitivity of alerts through examination of reasons for identified aberrations in disease activity; evaluation of DHSS staffs and LINCS epidemiologists' follow-up efforts in response to alerts; evaluation of cumulative data trends to determine patterns in baseline disease activity (e.g., variations in disease activity attributed to seasonality); development of methods to integrate data from all surveillance efforts to provide timely, comprehensive, and coordinated summaries of disease activity and to distribute these summaries regularly to all New Jersey public health partners to better inform public health and clinical management; and development of a coordinated multi-agency response plan in conjunction with adjacent states. Though the DHSS hopes that these surveillance efforts will contribute to the early detection of sentinel events that might represent possible bioterrorist or emerging infectious disease threats, the DHSS will also need to engage the medical community more fully in surveillance activities. In previous experiences, astute clinicians were responsible for the identification of the first cases of West Nile virus, anthrax, and SARS. Therefore, to further ensure the success of its surveillance efforts, the DHSS will also need to continue educating clinicians about its surveillance activities and the importance of timely reporting of patients with illness patterns that might suggest an unusual infectious disease outbreak associated with bioterrorism or emerging infectious diseases.


Subject(s)
Communicable Disease Control/standards , Communicable Diseases/epidemiology , Disease Notification/standards , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Population Surveillance/methods , Communicable Disease Control/trends , Communicable Diseases/diagnosis , Female , Humans , Incidence , Male , New Jersey/epidemiology , Public Health Practice , Risk Assessment , Risk Management
16.
J Public Health Manag Pract ; 11(3): 216-21, 2005.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-15829834

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: During 2003, the New Jersey Department of Health and Senior Services, in collaboration with other agencies, began planning and implementing voluntary smallpox vaccination clinics. METHODS: Surveys were distributed to all vaccinees, hospital bioterrorism coordinators, and local health departments to assess clinic experiences. RESULTS: During January-July 2003, 23 clinics were conducted with more than 1,000 participants. Of 670 persons vaccinated, 529 (79%) completed surveys. We received 65 surveys from 68 (77%) of 84 hospitals, and 25 responses from 22 regional health agencies. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination is one component of preparedness; future initiatives must incorporate multiagency collaboration and developing public health infrastructure.


Subject(s)
Bioterrorism , Disaster Planning/organization & administration , Immunization Programs/organization & administration , Smallpox/prevention & control , Health Personnel , Health Plan Implementation , Humans , New Jersey , Program Evaluation
17.
Appl Occup Environ Hyg ; 18(10): 780-5, 2003 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-12959889

ABSTRACT

A bioterrorism attack using the United States postal system to deliver a hazardous biological agent to specific targets created multiple environmental and occupational exposure risks along the path of the anthrax-containing letters. On October 18, 2001, a suspected case of cutaneous anthrax was confirmed in a postal worker from the Trenton Processing and Distribution Center where at least four suspect letters were postmarked. Over the next three weeks, a team of investigators collected samples at 57 workplaces in New Jersey as part of a comprehensive environmental investigation to assess anthrax contamination as a result of this bioterrorist attack. A total of 1369 samples were collected with positive sample results found in two mail processing and distribution centers, six municipal post offices, and one private company. This large-scale epidemiological and public health investigation conducted by state and federal agencies included environmental evaluations utilizing general industrial hygiene principles. Issues of sampling strategy, methods, agency cooperation and communication, and site assessment coordination are discussed.


Subject(s)
Anthrax/epidemiology , Bioterrorism , Environmental Monitoring/methods , Occupational Exposure/analysis , Postal Service , Bacillus anthracis/isolation & purification , Epidemiological Monitoring , Humans , New Jersey/epidemiology , Occupational Health , Sentinel Surveillance , United States , United States Government Agencies , Workforce
18.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 8(10): 1073-7, 2002 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-12396918

ABSTRACT

In October 2001, two inhalational anthrax and four cutaneous anthrax cases, resulting from the processing of Bacillus anthracis-containing envelopes at a New Jersey mail facility, were identified. Subsequently, we initiated stimulated passive hospital-based and enhanced passive surveillance for anthrax-compatible syndromes. From October 24 to December 17, 2001, hospitals reported 240,160 visits and 7,109 intensive-care unit admissions in the surveillance area (population 6.7 million persons). Following a change of reporting criteria on November 8, the average of possible inhalational anthrax reports decreased 83% from 18 to 3 per day; the proportion of reports requiring follow-up increased from 37% (105/286) to 41% (47/116). Clinical follow-up was conducted on 214 of 464 possible inhalational anthrax patients and 98 possible cutaneous anthrax patients; 49 had additional laboratory testing. No additional cases were identified. To verify the limited scope of the outbreak, surveillance was essential, though labor-intensive. The flexibility of the system allowed interim evaluation, thus improving surveillance efficiency.


Subject(s)
Anthrax/epidemiology , Bioterrorism/statistics & numerical data , Population Surveillance , Postal Service , Adult , Anthrax/diagnosis , Bacillus anthracis , Coroners and Medical Examiners , Delaware/epidemiology , Equipment Contamination , Female , Hospitals , Humans , Inhalation Exposure , New Jersey/epidemiology , Pennsylvania/epidemiology , Respiratory Tract Infections/diagnosis , Respiratory Tract Infections/epidemiology , Respiratory Tract Infections/microbiology , Skin Diseases, Bacterial/diagnosis , Skin Diseases, Bacterial/epidemiology , Skin Diseases, Bacterial/microbiology , Time Factors
19.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 10(5): 932-5, 2004 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-15200835

ABSTRACT

An outbreak of multidrug-resistant Salmonella enterica serotype Typhimurium infections occurred in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A case-control study implicated pasteurized milk from a dairy, and an inspection indicated the potential for contamination after pasteurization. Dairy cattle are the likely reservoir, and milk may be an important vehicle of Salmonella transmission to humans.


Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks , Drug Resistance, Multiple, Bacterial , Milk/microbiology , Salmonella Food Poisoning/epidemiology , Salmonella typhimurium/isolation & purification , Sterilization/methods , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Animals , Case-Control Studies , Cattle , Child , Child, Preschool , Dairying , Female , Hot Temperature , Humans , Infant , Male , Microbial Sensitivity Tests , Middle Aged , New Jersey/epidemiology , Pennsylvania/epidemiology , Salmonella Food Poisoning/microbiology , Salmonella typhimurium/classification , Salmonella typhimurium/drug effects , Salmonella typhimurium/genetics
20.
Am J Respir Crit Care Med ; 170(12): 1324-30, 2004 Dec 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-15347561

ABSTRACT

Past research suggests that environmental factors may be associated with sarcoidosis risk. We conducted a case control study to test a priori hypotheses that environmental and occupational exposures are associated with sarcoidosis. Ten centers recruited 706 newly diagnosed patients with sarcoidosis and an equal number of age-, race-, and sex-matched control subjects. Interviewers administered questionnaires containing questions regarding occupational and nonoccupational exposures that we assessed in univariable and multivariable analyses. We observed positive associations between sarcoidosis and specific occupations (e.g., agricultural employment, odds ratio [OR] 1.46, confidence interval [CI] 1.13-1.89), exposures (e.g., insecticides at work, OR 1.52, CI 1.14-2.04, and work environments with mold/mildew exposures [environments with possible exposures to microbial bioaerosols], OR 1.61, CI 1.13-2.31). A history of ever smoking cigarettes was less frequent among cases than control subjects (OR 0.62, CI 0.50-0.77). In multivariable modeling, we observed elevated ORs for work in areas with musty odors (OR 1.62, CI 1.24-2.11) and with occupational exposure to insecticides (OR 1.61, CI 1.13-2.28), and a decreased OR related to ever smoking cigarettes (OR 0.65, CI 0.51-0.82). The study did not identify a single, predominant cause of sarcoidosis. We identified several exposures associated with sarcoidosis risk, including insecticides, agricultural employment, and microbial bioaerosols.


Subject(s)
Environmental Exposure/adverse effects , Occupational Exposure/adverse effects , Sarcoidosis/etiology , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Case-Control Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Multivariate Analysis , Risk Factors
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