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1.
Transbound Emerg Dis ; 64(6): 1771-1781, 2017 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27670151

ABSTRACT

Quick detection and recovery of country's freedom status remain a constant challenge in animal health surveillance. The efficacy and cost efficiency of different surveillance components in proving the absence of infection or (early) detection of bluetongue serotype 8 in cattle populations within different countries (the Netherlands, France, Belgium) using surveillance data from years 2006 and 2007 were investigated using an adapted scenario tree model approach. First, surveillance components (sentinel, yearly cross-sectional and passive clinical reporting) within each country were evaluated in terms of efficacy for substantiating freedom of infection. Yearly cross-sectional survey and passive clinical reporting performed well within each country with sensitivity of detection values ranging around 0.99. The sentinel component had a sensitivity of detection around 0.7. Secondly, how effective the components were for (early) detection of bluetongue serotype 8 and whether syndromic surveillance on reproductive performance, milk production and mortality data available from the Netherlands and Belgium could be of added value were evaluated. Epidemic curves were used to estimate the timeliness of detection. Sensitivity analysis revealed that expected within-herd prevalence and number of herds processed were the most influential parameters for proving freedom and early detection. Looking at the assumed direct costs, although total costs were low for sentinel and passive clinical surveillance components, passive clinical surveillance together with syndromic surveillance (based on reproductive performance data) turned out most cost-efficient for the detection of bluetongue serotype 8. To conclude, for emerging or re-emerging vectorborne disease that behaves such as bluetongue serotype 8, it is recommended to use passive clinical and syndromic surveillance as early detection systems for maximum cost efficiency and sensitivity. Once an infection is detected and eradicated, cross-sectional screening for substantiating freedom of infection and sentinel for monitoring the disease evolution are recommended.


Subject(s)
Bluetongue virus/immunology , Bluetongue/epidemiology , Cattle Diseases/epidemiology , Milk/metabolism , Reproduction , Animals , Belgium/epidemiology , Bluetongue/economics , Bluetongue/virology , Bluetongue virus/physiology , Cattle , Cattle Diseases/virology , Costs and Cost Analysis , Cross-Sectional Studies , Early Diagnosis , France/epidemiology , Freedom , Netherlands/epidemiology , Sentinel Surveillance/veterinary , Serogroup
2.
Prev Vet Med ; 134: 103-112, 2016 Nov 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27836031

ABSTRACT

Since 2002, a national cattle health surveillance system (CHSS) is in place that consists of several surveillance components. The CHSS combines enhanced passive reporting, diagnostic and post-mortem examinations, random surveys for prevalence estimation of endemic diseases and quarterly data analysis. The aim of the data-analysis component, which is called the Trend Analysis Surveillance Component (TASC), is to monitor trends and developments in cattle health using routine census data. The challenges that were faced during the development of TASC and the merits of this surveillance component are discussed, which might be of help to those who want to develop a monitoring and surveillance system that includes data analysis. When TASC was developed, there were process-oriented challenges and analytical related issues that had to be solved. Process-oriented challenges involved data availability, confidentiality, quality, uniformity and economic value of the data. Analytical issues involved data validation, aggregation and modeling. Eventually, the results had to provide information on cattle health that was intuitive to the stakeholders and that could support decision making. Within TASC, both quarterly analysis on census data and, on demand, additional in-depth analysis are performed. The key monitoring indicators that are analyzed as part of TASC all relate to cattle health and involve parameters such as mortality, fertility, udder health and antimicrobial usage. Population-Averaged Generalized Estimating Equations, with the appropriate distribution (i.e. Gaussian, Poisson, Negative Binomial or Binomial) and link function (independent, log or logit), are used for analysis. Both trends in time and associations between cattle health indicators and potential confounders are monitored, discussed and reported to the stakeholders on a quarterly level. The flexibility of the in-depth analyses provides the possibility to conduct additional analyses when anomalies in trends of cattle health occur or when developments in the cattle industry need further investigation. In addition, part of the budget for the in-depth analysis can also be used to improve the models or add new data sources. The TASC provides insight in cattle health parameters, it visualizes trends in time, can be used to support or nuance signals that are detected in one of the other surveillance components and can provide warnings or initiate changes in policy when unfavorable trends occur.


Subject(s)
Cattle Diseases/epidemiology , Epidemiological Monitoring/veterinary , Animals , Cattle , Censuses , Female , Male , Netherlands/epidemiology , Population Surveillance , Prevalence , Seasons
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