Long-Term Risk of Arterial Thrombosis After Intracerebral Hemorrhage: MUCH-Italy.

BACKGROUND: The identification of patients surviving an acute intracerebral hemorrhage who are at a long-term risk of arterial thrombosis is a poorly defined, crucial issue for clinicians. METHODS: In the setting of the MUCH-Italy (Multicenter Study on Cerebral Haemorrhage in Italy) prospective observational cohort, we enrolled and followed up consecutive 30-day intracerebral hemorrhage survivors to assess the long-term incidence of arterial thrombotic events, to assess the impact of clinical and radiological variables on the risk of these events, and to develop a tool for estimating such a risk at the individual level. Primary end point was a composite of ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or other arterial thrombotic events. A point-scoring system was generated by the ß-coefficients of the variables independently associated with the long-term risk of arterial thrombosis, and the predictive MUCH score was calculated as the sum of the weighted scores. RESULTS: Overall, 1729 patients (median follow-up time, 43 months [25th to 75th percentile, 69.0]) qualified for inclusion. Arterial thrombotic events occurred in 169 (9.7%) patients. Male sex, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, atrial fibrillation, and personal history of coronary artery disease were associated with increased long-term risk of arterial thrombosis, whereas the use of statins and antithrombotic medications after the acute intracerebral hemorrhage was associated with a reduced risk. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the MUCH score predictive validity was 0.716 (95% CI, 0.56-0.81) for the 0- to 1-year score, 0.672 (95% CI, 0.58-0.73) for the 0- to 5-year score, and 0.744 (95% CI, 0.65-0.81) for the 0- to 10-year score. C statistic for the prediction of events that occur from 0 to 10 years was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.64-0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Intracerebral hemorrhage survivors are at high long-term risk of arterial thrombosis. The MUCH score may serve as a simple tool for risk estimation.

Liraglutide and not lifestyle intervention reduces soluble CD163 after comparable weight loss in obese participants with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: The GLP-1 receptor agonist liraglutide is used to treat hyperglycemia in type 2 diabetes but is also known to induce weight loss, preserve the beta cell and reduce cardiovascular risk. The mechanisms underlying these effects are however still not completely known. Herein we explore the effect of liraglutide on markers of immune cell activity in a population of obese individuals with prediabetes or newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHOD: Plasma levels of the monocyte/macrophage markers, soluble (s)CD163 and sCD14, the neutrophil markers myeloperoxidase (MPO) and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL),the T-cell markers sCD25 and T-cell immunoglobulin mucin domain-3 (sTIM-3) and the inflammatory marker TNF superfamily (TNFSF) member 14 (LIGHT/TNFSF14) were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays in obese individuals with prediabetes or diabetes diagnosed within the last 12 months, prior to and after comparable weight loss achieved with lifestyle changes (n = 20) or liraglutide treatment (n = 20), and in healthy subjects (n = 13). RESULTS: At baseline, plasma levels of the macrophage marker sCD163, and the inflammatory marker LIGHT were higher in cases as compared to controls. Plasma levels of sCD14, NGAL, sTIM-3 and sCD25 did not differ at baseline between patients and controls. After weight reduction following lifestyle intervention or liraglutide treatment, sCD163 decreased significantly in the liraglutide group vs. lifestyle (between-group difference p = 0.023, adjusted for visceral adipose tissue and triglycerides basal values). MPO and LIGHT decreased significantly only in the liraglutide group (between group difference not significant). Plasma levels of MPO and in particular sCD163 correlated with markers of metabolic dysfunction and inflammation. After weight loss, only sCD163 showed a trend for decreased levels during OGTT, both in the whole cohort as in those of liraglutide vs lifestyle group. CONCLUSION: Weight loss following treatment with liraglutide was associated with reduced circulating levels of sCD163 when compared to the same extent of weight loss after lifestyle changes. This might contribute to reduced cardiometabolic risk in individuals receiving treatment with liraglutide.

Breakfast quality and its sociodemographic and psychosocial correlates among Italian children, adolescents, and adults from the Italian Nutrition & HEalth Survey (INHES) study.

BACKGROUND: Breakfast quality, together with regularity of breakfast, has been suggested to be associated with cardiometabolic health advantages. We aimed to evaluate the quality of breakfast and its socioeconomic and psychosocial correlates in a large sample of the Italian population. METHODS: Cross-sectional analyses on 7,673 adult and 505 children/adolescent regular breakfast eaters from the Italian Nutrition & Health Survey (INHES; 2010-2013). Dietary data were collected through a single 24-h dietary recall. Breakfast quality was assessed through the Breakfast Quality Index (BQI) combining intake of ten food groups, energy, and nutrients of public health concern, and potentially ranging from 0 to 10. The association of sociodemographic and psychosocial factors with BQI were analyzed by multivariable-adjusted linear regression models. RESULTS: The average BQI was 4.65 (SD ± 1.13) and 4.97 (SD ± 1.00) in adults and children/adolescents, respectively. Amongst adults, older age (ß = 0.19; 95%CI 0.06 to 0.31 for > 65 vs. 20-40 years) and having a high educational level (ß = 0.13; 0.03 to 0.23; for postsecondary vs. up to elementary) were independent predictors of better breakfast quality, while men reported lower BQI (ß = -0.08; -0.14 to -0.02 vs. women). Perceived stress levels at home and work and financial stress were inversely associated with BQI. Children/adolescents living in Central and Southern Italian regions had lower BQI compared to residents in Northern Italy (ß = -0.55; -0.91 to -0.19 and ß = -0.24; -0.47 to -0.01, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In adults, breakfast quality was associated with age, sex, and educational level. Perceived stress levels were inversely associated with the quality of breakfast. In children/adolescents, a north-south gradient in breakfast quality was observed.

Prognostic Value of Cardiovascular Biomarkers in the Population.

Importance: Identification of individuals at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease within the population is important to inform primary prevention strategies. Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of routinely available cardiovascular biomarkers when added to established risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-level analysis including data on cardiovascular biomarkers from 28 general population-based cohorts from 12 countries and 4 continents with assessments by participant age. The median follow-up was 11.8 years. Exposure: Measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, B-type natriuretic peptide, or high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, which included all fatal and nonfatal events. The secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, heart failure, ischemic stroke, and myocardial infarction. Subdistribution hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of biomarkers and outcomes were calculated after adjustment for established risk factors. The additional predictive value of the biomarkers was assessed using the C statistic and reclassification analyses. Results: The analyses included 164 054 individuals (median age, 53.1 years [IQR, 42.7-62.9 years] and 52.4% were women). There were 17 211 incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events. All biomarkers were significantly associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (subdistribution HR per 1-SD change, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.11-1.16] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I; 1.18 [95% CI, 1.12-1.23] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; 1.21 [95% CI, 1.18-1.24] for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; 1.14 [95% CI, 1.08-1.22] for B-type natriuretic peptide; and 1.14 [95% CI, 1.12-1.16] for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) and all secondary outcomes. The addition of each single biomarker to a model that included established risk factors improved the C statistic. For 10-year incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in younger people (aged <65 years), the combination of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein resulted in a C statistic improvement from 0.812 (95% CI, 0.8021-0.8208) to 0.8194 (95% CI, 0.8089-0.8277). The combination of these biomarkers also improved reclassification compared with the conventional model. Improvements in risk prediction were most pronounced for the secondary outcomes of heart failure and all-cause mortality. The incremental value of biomarkers was greater in people aged 65 years or older vs younger people. Conclusions and Relevance: Cardiovascular biomarkers were strongly associated with fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events and mortality. The addition of biomarkers to established risk factors led to only a small improvement in risk prediction metrics for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but was more favorable for heart failure and mortality.

Association between BMI, RFM and mortality and potential mediators: Prospective findings from the Moli-sani study.

BACKGROUND: Body mass index (BMI) is the most frequently used adiposity measure, yet it is unable to differentiate fat mass from lean mass. Relative fat mass (RFM) has been proposed as an alternative. This paper aims to study RFM and BMI association with mortality in a general Italian population and potential mediators of such association. METHODS: 20,587 individuals from the Moli-sani cohort were analysed (mean age = 54 ± 11, women = 52%, median follow up = 11.2 years, interquartile range = 1.96 years). Cox regressions were used to assess BMI, RFM, and their interactive association with mortality. Dose-response relationships were computed with spline regression, mediation analysis was performed. All analyses were separated for men and women. RESULTS: Men and women with BMI > 35 kg/m2 and men in the 4th quartile of RFM showed an independent association with mortality (HR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.30-2.26 BMI in men, HR = 1.37, 95%CI = 1.01-1.85 BMI in women, HR = 1.37 CI 95% = 1.11-1.68 RFM in men), that was lost once adjusted for potential mediators. Cubic splines showed a U-shaped association for BMI in men and women, and for RFM in men. Mediation analysis showed that 46.5% of the association of BMI with mortality in men was mediated by glucose, C reactive protein, forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), and cystatin C; 82.9% of the association of BMI in women was mediated by HOMA index, cystatin C and FEV1; lastly, 55% of RFM association with mortality was mediated by glucose, FEV1 and cystatin C. Regression models including BMI and RFM showed that RFM drives most of the risk in men, but is not predictive in women. CONCLUSIONS: The association between anthropometric measures and mortality was U shaped and it was largely dependent on sex. Associations were mediated by glucose metabolism, renal and lung function. Public health interventions should mainly focus on people with severe obesity or impaired metabolic, renal, or respiratory function.

Risk prediction of atrial fibrillation and its complications in the community using hs troponin I.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is becoming increasingly common. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) do not explain all AF cases. Blood-based biomarkers reflecting cardiac injury such as high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) may help close this gap. METHODS: We investigated the predictive ability of hsTnI for incident AF in 45,298 participants (median age 51.4 years, 45.0% men) across European community cohorts in comparison to CVRF and established biomarkers (C-reactive protein, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7.7 years, 1734 (3.8%) participants developed AF. Those in the highest hsTnI quarter (≥4.2 ng/L) had a 3.91-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.30, 4.63; p < .01) risk for developing AF compared to the lowest quarter (<1.4 ng/L). In multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models a statistically significant association was seen between hsTnI and AF (hazard ratio (HR) per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in log10(hsTnI) 1.08; 95% CI 1.01, 1.16; p = .03). Inclusion of hsTnI did improve model discrimination (C-index CVRF 0.811 vs. C-index CVRF and hsTnI 0.813; p < .01). Higher hsTnI concentrations were associated with heart failure (HR per SD 1.37; 95% CI 1.12, 1.68; p < .01) and overall mortality (HR per SD 1.24; 95% CI 1.09, 1.41; p < .01). CONCLUSION: hsTnI as a biomarker of myocardial injury does not improve prediction of AF incidence beyond classical CVRF and NT-proBNP. However, it is associated with the AF-related disease heart failure and mortality likely reflecting underlying subclinical cardiovascular impairment.

Reduced platelet glycoprotein Ibα shedding accelerates thrombopoiesis and COX-1 recovery: implications for aspirin dosing regimen.

Cardiovascular (CV) disease prevention with low-dose aspirin can be less effective in patients with a faster recovery of platelet (PLT) cyclooxygenase (COX)-1 activity during the 24-hour dosing interval. We previously showed that incomplete suppression of TXA2 over 24 hours can be rescued by a twice daily aspirin regimen. Here we show that reduced PLT glycoprotein (GP)Ibα shedding characterizes patients with accelerated COX-1 recovery and may contribute to higher thrombopoietin (TPO) production and higher rates of newly formed PLT, escaping aspirin inhibition over 24 hours. Two hundred aspirin-treated patients with high CV risk (100 with type 2 diabetes mellitus) were stratified according to the kinetics of PLT COX-1 activity recovery during the 10- to 24-hour dosing interval. Whole proteome analysis showed that PLT from patients with accelerated COX-1 recovery were enriched in proteins involved in cell survival, inhibition of apoptosis and cellular protrusion formation. In agreement, we documented increased plasma TPO, megakaryocyte maturation and proplatelet formation, and conversely increased PLT galactose and reduced caspase 3, phosphatidylserine exposure and ADAM17 activation, translating into diminished GPIbα cleavage and glycocalicin (GC) release. Treatment of HepG2 cells with recombinant GC led to a dose-dependent reduction of TPO mRNA in the liver, suggesting that reduced GPIbα ectodomain shedding may unleash thrombopoiesis. A cluster of clinical markers, including younger age, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, visceral obesity and higher TPO/GC ratio, predicted with significant accuracy the likelihood of faster COX-1 recovery and suboptimal aspirin response. Circulating TPO/GC ratio, reflecting a dysregulation of PLT lifespan and production, may provide a simple tool to identify patients amenable to more frequent aspirin daily dosing.

Exploring the incremental utility of circulating biomarkers for robust risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation in European cohorts using regressions and modern machine learning methods.

AIMS: To identify robust circulating predictors for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) using classical regressions and machine learning (ML) techniques within a broad spectrum of candidate variables. METHODS AND RESULTS: In pooled European community cohorts (n = 42 280 individuals), 14 routinely available biomarkers mirroring distinct pathophysiological pathways including lipids, inflammation, renal, and myocardium-specific markers (N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], high-sensitivity troponin I [hsTnI]) were examined in relation to incident AF using Cox regressions and distinct ML methods. Of 42 280 individuals (21 843 women [51.7%]; median [interquartile range, IQR] age, 52.2 [42.7, 62.0] years), 1496 (3.5%) developed AF during a median follow-up time of 5.7 years. In multivariable-adjusted Cox-regression analysis, NT-proBNP was the strongest circulating predictor of incident AF [hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD), 1.93 (95% CI, 1.82-2.04); P < 0.001]. Further, hsTnI [HR per SD, 1.18 (95% CI, 1.13-1.22); P < 0.001], cystatin C [HR per SD, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.10-1.23); P < 0.001], and C-reactive protein [HR per SD, 1.08 (95% CI, 1.02-1.14); P = 0.012] correlated positively with incident AF. Applying various ML techniques, a high inter-method consistency of selected candidate variables was observed. NT-proBNP was identified as the blood-based marker with the highest predictive value for incident AF. Relevant clinical predictors were age, the use of antihypertensive medication, and body mass index. CONCLUSION: Using different variable selection procedures including ML methods, NT-proBNP consistently remained the strongest blood-based predictor of incident AF and ranked before classical cardiovascular risk factors. The clinical benefit of these findings for identifying at-risk individuals for targeted AF screening needs to be elucidated and tested prospectively.

Drinking alcohol in moderation is associated with lower rate of all-cause mortality in individuals with higher rather than lower educational level: findings from the MORGAM project.

The association between socioeconomic status (SES) and alcohol-related diseases has been widely explored. Less is known, however, on whether the association of moderate drinking with all-cause mortality is modified by educational level (EL). Using harmonized data from 16 cohorts in the MORGAM Project (N = 142,066) the association of pattern of alcohol intake with hazard of all-cause mortality across EL (lower = primary-school; middle = secondary-school; higher = university/college degree) was assessed using multivariable Cox-regression and spline curves. A total of 16,695 deaths occurred in 11.8 years (median). In comparison with life-long abstainers, participants drinking 0.1-10 g/d of ethanol had 13% (HR = 0.87; 95%CI: 0.74-1.02), 11% (HR = 0.89; 0.84-0.95) and 5% (HR = 0.95; 0.89-1.02) lower rate of death in higher, middle and lower EL, respectively. Conversely, drinkers > 20 g/d had 1% (HR = 1.01; 0.82-1.25), 10% (HR = 1.10; 1.02-1.19) and 17% (HR = 1.17; 1.09-1.26) higher rate of death. The association of alcohol consumption with all-cause mortality was nonlinear, with a different J-shape by EL levels. It was consistent across both sexes and in various approaches of measuring alcohol consumption, including combining quantity and frequency and it was more evident when the beverage of preference was wine. We observed that drinking in moderation (≤ 10 g/d) is associated with lower mortality rate more evidently in individuals with higher EL than in people with lower EL, while heavy drinking is associated with higher mortality rate more evidently in individuals with lower EL than in people with higher EL, suggesting that advice on reducing alcohol intake should especially target individuals of low EL.

Ultra-processed food intake and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in individuals with cardiovascular disease: the Moli-sani Study.

AIMS: To evaluate the association of ultra-processed food (UPF) intake and mortality among individuals with history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and analyse some biological pathways possibly relating UPF intake to death. METHODS AND RESULTS: Longitudinal analysis on 1171 men and women (mean age: 67 ± 10 years) with history of CVD, recruited in the Moli-sani Study (2005-10, Italy) and followed for 10.6 years (median). Food intake was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire. UPF was defined using the NOVA classification according to degree of processing and categorized as quartiles of the ratio (%) between UPF (g/day) and total food consumed (g/day). The mediating effects of 18 inflammatory, metabolic, cardiovascular, and renal biomarkers were evaluated using a logistic regression model within a counterfactual framework. In multivariable-adjusted Cox analyses, higher intake of UPF (Q4, ≥11.3% of total food), as opposed to the lowest (Q1, UPF <4.7%), was associated with higher hazards of all-cause (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.38; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.91) and CVD mortality (HR: 1.65; 95% CI: 1.07-2.55). A linear dose-response relationship of 1% increment in UPF intake with all-cause and CVD mortality was also observed. Altered levels of cystatin C explained 18.3% and 16.6% of the relation between UPF (1% increment in the diet) with all-cause and CVD mortality, respectively. CONCLUSION: A diet rich in UPF is associated with increased hazards of all-cause and CVD mortality among individuals with prior cardiovascular events, possibly through an altered renal function. Elevated UPF intake represents a major public health concern in secondary CVD prevention.

Habitual adherence to a traditional Mediterranean diet and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): a longitudinal analysis.

Evidence on habitual Mediterranean diet (MD) and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and COVID-19 is limited. 1,520 participants from the Moli-sani Study (2017-2020) were tested during January-September 2021 and adherence to MD was ascertained through the Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS). SARS-CoV-2 infection cases were determined through serology, and previous clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 disease was self-reported. Results were presented as odd ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The MDS was not associated with the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR= 0.94; 95% CI: 0.83-1.06) and COVID-19 (OR= 0.82; 95% CI: 0.62-1.10) diagnosis. High consumption of cereals was associated with lower odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR = 0.91; 95% CI: 0.83-1.00; for each 25 g/d increase). Likelihood of having being diagnosed with COVID-19 disease decreased in association with increasing olive oil intake (OR= 0.10; 95% CI: 0.01-0.79; for each additional 10 g/d), moderate alcohol consumption (OR= 0.18; 95% CI: 0.04-0.82) and higher intakes of fruits and nuts (OR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.79-0.99). Our findings emphasise the adoption and maintenance of a balanced MD as a key strategy to reduce the risk of future SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19.

Factors for heterogeneous outcomes of angina and myocardial ischemia without obstructive coronary atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The absence of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with angina is common, but its prognosis is debated. We investigated outcomes of such patients to identify predictors of cardiovascular events. METHODS: We selected 1014 patients with angina, evidence of myocardial ischemia at the electrocardiogram (ECG) exercise test or imaging stress tests, and nonobstructive CAD (absence of lumen diameter reduction ≥50%) at coronary angiography between 1999 and 2015. Note that, 1905 age- and risk factors-matched asymptomatic subjects served as "real-world" comparators. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of all-cause death or myocardial infarction. RESULTS: At 6-years median follow-up (interquartile range, 3-9 years), the primary endpoint occurred in 53 patients (5.5%, 0.92/100 person-years). Besides similar event rates compared with asymptomatic subjects (hazard ratio [HR] 0.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.62-1.15, p = 0.28), the index population showed a very heterogeneous prognosis. Patients with nonobstructive CAD (HR 1.85, 95% CI 1.02-3.37, p = 0.04, compared with "normal" coronary arteries) and ischemia at imaging tests (HR 2.11, 95% CI 1.07-4.14, p = 0.03, compared with ischemia detected only at the ECG exercise test) were at higher risk and those with both these components showing even >10-fold event rates as compared with the absence of both. Three-hundred and twenty-five patients (34%) continued to experience angina, 69 (7.2%) underwent repeat coronary angiography, and 14 (1.5%) had consequent coronary revascularization for atherosclerosis progression. CONCLUSION: Apart from the impaired quality of life, angina without obstructive CAD has an overall benign but very heterogeneous prognosis. Nonobstructive CAD and myocardial ischemia at imaging tests both confer a higher risk.

Effects of liraglutide vs. lifestyle changes on soluble suppression of tumorigenesis-2 (sST2) and galectin-3 in obese subjects with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes after comparable weight loss.

BACKGROUND: Soluble suppression of tumorigenesis-2 (sST2) and galectin (Gal)-3 are two biomarkers related to inflammation, metabolic disturbances and to myocardial fibrosis that characterize several cardiac pathological conditions. Increased circulating levels of these molecules have been associated with risk of cardiovascular death. Treatment with liraglutide, a glucagon-like peptide 1 analog, is associated with weight loss, improved glycemic control, and reduced cardiovascular risk. We wanted to assess (I) potential differences between subjects with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and healthy controls in sST2 and Gal-3 circulating levels, and their relationship with glycemic control and markers of beta cell function and myocardial injury; (II) whether liraglutide treatment modulates these markers in subjects with prediabetes or early T2DM independently of weight loss; (III) whether baseline levels of any of these two molecules may predict the response to liraglutide treatment. METHODS: Forty metformin-treated obese subjects (BMI ≥ 30) with prediabetes [impaired fasting glucose (IFG) or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or both (n = 23)] or newly diagnosed T2DM (n = 17), were randomized to liraglutide or lifestyle counseling until achieving a comparable weight loss (7% of initial body weight). Thirteen subjects were enrolled as healthy controls for baseline sST2 and Gal-3 levels. RESULTS: Baseline sST2 levels were comparable between controls and obese patients (p = 0.79) whereas Gal-3 levels were significantly higher in patients as compared to controls (p < 0.001). Liraglutide treatment, but not weight loss achieved by lifestyle counseling, decreased plasma sST2 levels (- 9%, beta = - 14.9, standard deviation 6.9, p = 0.037) while Gal-3 levels did not change. A reduction in serum hs-Troponin I was observed after intervention, due to a 19% (p = 0.29) increase in the lifestyle arm, and a 25% decrease (p = 0.033) in the liraglutide arm (between-group difference p = 0.083). Lower baseline Gal-3 levels predicted a better improvement in beta cell function after liraglutide treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Liraglutide-induced reduction in sST2 and possibly hs-TnI suggests that in obese patients with prediabetes or early T2DM this drug may have a positive effect on (cardiac) fibrosis, whereas plasma level of Gal-3 before liraglutide initiation may predict response to the drug in terms of beta cell function improvement. Trial registration Eudract: 2013-001356-36.

Exploring domains, clinical implications and environmental associations of a deep learning marker of biological ageing.

Deep Neural Networks (DNN) have been recently developed for the estimation of Biological Age (BA), the hypothetical underlying age of an organism, which can differ from its chronological age (CA). Although promising, these population-specific algorithms warrant further characterization and validation, since their biological, clinical and environmental correlates remain largely unexplored. Here, an accurate DNN was trained to compute BA based on 36 circulating biomarkers in an Italian population (N = 23,858; age ≥ 35 years; 51.7% women). This estimate was heavily influenced by markers of metabolic, heart, kidney and liver function. The resulting Δage (BA-CA) significantly predicted mortality and hospitalization risk for all and specific causes. Slowed biological aging (Δage < 0) was associated with higher physical and mental wellbeing, healthy lifestyles (e.g. adherence to Mediterranean diet) and higher socioeconomic status (educational attainment, household income and occupational status), while accelerated aging (Δage > 0) was associated with smoking and obesity. Together, lifestyles and socioeconomic variables explained ~48% of the total variance in Δage, potentially suggesting the existence of a genetic basis. These findings validate blood-based biological aging as a marker of public health in adult Italians and provide a robust body of knowledge on its biological architecture, clinical implications and potential environmental influences.

Psychological distress resulting from the COVID-19 confinement is associated with unhealthy dietary changes in two Italian population-based cohorts.

PURPOSE: To examine the relationship between psychological distress resulting from the COVID-19 lockdown and dietary changes. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis from 2 retrospective Italian cohorts recruited from May to September 2020: (1) The Moli-LOCK cohort consists of 1401 participants from the Moli-sani Study (n = 24,325) who were administered a telephone-based questionnaire to assess lifestyles and psychological factors during confinement; (2) the ALT RISCOVID-19 is a web-based survey of 1340 individuals distributed throughout Italy who self-responded to the same questionnaire using Google® forms. Psychological distress was measured by assessments of depression (PHQ-9 and depressive items from the Screening Questionnaire for Disaster Mental Health- SQD-D), anxiety (GAD-7), stress (PSS-4), and post-traumatic stress disorder (SQD-P). Diet quality was assessed either as changes in consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPF) or adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD). RESULTS: In ALT RISCOVID-19, increased UPF intake was directly associated with depression (both PHQ-9 and SQD-D; p < 0.0001), anxiety (p < 0.0001), stress (p = 0.001) and SQD-P (p = 0.001); similar results were obtained in the Moli-LOCK cohort except for perceived stress. When psychometric scales were analysed simultaneously, only depression (SQD-D) remained associated with UPF (both cohorts). In both cohorts, psychological distress poorly influenced changes toward an MD, except for depression (SQD-D) that resulted inversely associated in the ALT RISCOVID-19 participants (ß = - 0.16; 95% CI - 0.26, - 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: Psychological distress from the COVID-19 confinement is directly associated with unhealthy dietary modifications in two Italian cohorts. In view of possible future restrictive measures to contain pandemic, public health actions are warranted to mitigate the impact of psychological distress on diet quality.

Fine-grained investigation of the relationship between human nutrition and global DNA methylation patterns.

PURPOSE: Nutrition is an important, modifiable, environmental factor affecting human health by modulating epigenetic processes, including DNA methylation (5mC). Numerous studies investigated the association of nutrition with global and gene-specific DNA methylation and evidences on animal models highlighted a role in DNA hydroxymethylation (5hmC) regulation. However, a more comprehensive analysis of different layers of nutrition in association with global levels of 5mC and 5hmC is lacking. We investigated the association between global levels of 5mC and 5hmC and human nutrition, through the stratification and analysis of dietary patterns into different nutritional layers: adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD), main food groups, macronutrients and micronutrients intake. METHODS: ELISA technique was used to measure global 5mC and 5hmC levels in 1080 subjects from the Moli-sani cohort. Food intake during the 12 months before enrolment was assessed using the semi-quantitative EPIC food frequency questionnaire. Complementary approaches involving both classical statistics and supervised machine learning analyses were used to investigate the associations between global 5mC and 5hmC levels and adherence to Mediterranean diet, main food groups, macronutrients and micronutrients intake. RESULTS: We found that global DNA methylation, but not hydroxymethylation, was associated with daily intake of zinc and vitamin B3. Random Forests algorithms predicting 5mC and 5hmC through intakes of food groups, macronutrients and micronutrients revealed a significant contribution of zinc, while vitamin B3 was reported among the most influential features. CONCLUSION: We found that nutrition may affect global DNA methylation, suggesting a contribution of micronutrients previously implicated as cofactors in methylation pathways.

Dietary factors and the risk of lumbar spinal stenosis: A case-control analysis from the PREFACE study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There is a lack of knowledge on the association of dietary factors and Lumbar Spinal Stenosis (LSS). We evaluated the association of a Mediterranean diet (MD), its major food components and ultra-processed food (UPF) with the risk of LSS. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants were recruited from the Neurosurgery Department of the IRCCS Neuromed, Italy. The study sample consisted of 156 cases of LSS, and 312 controls matched 1:2 for sex, age (±6 months) and physical activity, without a history or clinical evidence of LSS who were identified from the general population. Adherence to MD was assessed by the Mediterranean Diet Score based on 9 food groups. UPF was defined according to NOVA classification and calculated as the ratio (%) of UPF (g/d) on total food consumed (g/d). In multivariable-adjusted analysis, a 2-point increase in the MD score was not associated with LSS risk (OR: 1.02, 95% CI: 0.72-1.46). An increment of 10 g/d of fruits and nuts, cereals or fish led to lower odds of LSS (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.95-0.99; OR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.82-0.94; OR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.76-0.99, respectively). Additionally, 1% increment in the consumption of UPF in the diet was independently associated with higher LSS risk (OR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.04-1.14). CONCLUSION: A diet rich in fruits, cereals, fish is associated with lower risk of LSS while a large dietary share of UPF increases the risk of this disease. Further studies with a prospective design and larger sample sizes are warranted.

Mini-craniotomy for intra-axial brain tumors: a comparison with conventional craniotomy in 306 patients harboring non-dural based lesions.

The use of a mini-craniotomy approach involving linear skin incision and a bone flap of about 3 cm has been reported for several neurosurgical diseases, such as aneurysms or cranial base tumors. More superficial lesions, including intra-axial tumors, may occasionally raise concerns due to insufficient control of the tumor boundaries. The convenience of a minimally invasive approach to intrinsic brain tumors was evaluated by comparing 161 patients who underwent mini-craniotomy (MC) for intra-axial brain tumors with a group of 145 patients operated on by the same surgical team through a conventional craniotomy (CC). Groups were propensity-matched for age, preoperative condition, size and location of the tumor, and pathological diagnosis. Results were analyzed focusing on operative time, the extent of resection, clinical outcome, hospitalization time, and time to start adjuvant therapy. Mini-craniotomy was equally effective in terms of extent of resection (GTR: 70.9% in the MC group vs 70.5% in the CC group) but had shorter operative time (average: 165 min in the MC group vs 205 min in the CC group p < 0.001) and lower rate of postoperative complications both superficial (1.03% vs 6.5% in the CC group p = 0.009) and deep (4% in the MC group vs 5.5% in the CC group p = 0,47). No relationship was found between the size or location of the tumor and resection rate. The MC group had reduced hospitalization time (average: 5.8 days vs 7.6 in CC group p < 0.001) and faster access to adjuvant therapies. 92.5% of the MC patients, which were scheduled for treatment, started radiotherapy within 8 weeks after surgery as opposed to 84.1% in the CC group (p = 0.04). These findings support the increasing use of mini-craniotomy for intra-axial brain tumors.

Alcohol consumption, cardiac biomarkers, and risk of atrial fibrillation and adverse outcomes.

AIMS: There is inconsistent evidence on the relation of alcohol intake with incident atrial fibrillation (AF), in particular at lower doses. We assessed the association between alcohol consumption, biomarkers, and incident AF across the spectrum of alcohol intake in European cohorts. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a community-based pooled cohort, we followed 107 845 individuals for the association between alcohol consumption, including types of alcohol and drinking patterns, and incident AF. We collected information on classical cardiovascular risk factors and incident heart failure (HF) and measured the biomarkers N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin I. The median age of individuals was 47.8 years, 48.3% were men. The median alcohol consumption was 3 g/day. N = 5854 individuals developed AF (median follow-up time: 13.9 years). In a sex- and cohort-stratified Cox regression analysis alcohol consumption was non-linearly and positively associated with incident AF. The hazard ratio for one drink (12 g) per day was 1.16, 95% CI 1.11-1.22, P < 0.001. Associations were similar across types of alcohol. In contrast, alcohol consumption at lower doses was associated with reduced risk of incident HF. The association between alcohol consumption and incident AF was neither fully explained by cardiac biomarker concentrations nor by the occurrence of HF. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to other cardiovascular diseases such as HF, even modest habitual alcohol intake of 1.2 drinks/day was associated with an increased risk of AF, which needs to be considered in AF prevention.

Life Course Socioeconomic Status and Risk of Hospitalization for Heart Failure or Atrial Fibrillation in The Moli-Sani Study Cohort.

We investigated the association of cumulative socioeconomic disadvantage (CSD) and socioeconomic (SES) trajectories across life course with the risk of first hospitalization for heart failure (HF) or atrial fibrillation (AF) and tested some biological mechanisms in explaining such associations. Longitudinal analysis on 21,756 HF- and AF-free subjects recruited in the Moli-sani Study (2005-2010; Italy) and followed up for 8.2 years. CSD was computed using childhood SES, education and adulthood SES indicators, and the same were used to define overall trajectories. High disadvantage across life course (CSD≥8) posed subjects at increased risk of HF (Hazard ratio [HR]=2.58; 95%CI 1.78, 3.74) or AF (HR=1.57;1.05,2.33), as compared to low CSD. All explanatory factors accounted for 18.5% and 24% of the excess of HF and AF risks, respectively, associated with CSD. For subjects with low childhood SES, advancements in education lowered risk of HF (HR=0.70;0.48, 1.02) or AF (HR=0.50;0.28, 0.89), whereas achievements of adulthood SES were unlikely to contribute to disease reduction. In conclusion, a life-course disadvantaged SES is an important predictor of first hospitalization for HF and AF; known risk factors partially explained the SES-disease gradient. Upwardly mobile groups are likely to mitigate the effect of poor childhood circumstances especially through educational advancement.