ABSTRACT
Climate change will expose the food-producing sector to a range of challenges. Inland aquaculture farms are particularly vulnerable, due to the difficulty in changing their location, and therefore require specific tools to predict the influence of direct and indirect effects on production, environment and economic feasibility. The objective of our study was to apply a simple set of models to produce a set of growth, risk and suitability maps for stakeholders within the common carp sector in Poland, to assist decision-making under two different scenarios of climate change: a moderate situation (RCP 4.5) and an extreme situation (RCP 8.5). We used present (2000-2019) and future projections (2080-2099) for water surface temperature based on land surface temperature data from regionally downscaled climate models to draw maps to: (i) show optimal temperature conditions for carp growth, (ii) assess risk of disease outbreak caused by three important common carp pathogens: Cyprinid herpesvirus 3 (CyHV-3), carp oedema virus (CEV) and spring viremia of carp (SVCV) and (iii) predict potential suitability changes of carp farming in Poland. The study identified areas with the most and least favourable temperature conditions for carp growth, as well as those areas with the highest/lowest number of days with suitable temperatures for virus infection. These suitability maps showed the combined effect of direct and indirect effects of climate change projections under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios. The approach applied herein will be of use worldwide for analysing the risks of temperature increase to land-based aquaculture, and the results presented are important for carp farmers in Poland and elsewhere, industry in general, and government stakeholders, to understand the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the triple bottom line of people, planet, and profit.
Subject(s)
Carps , Fish Diseases , Animals , Aquaculture , Fish Diseases/epidemiology , Humans , Temperature , WaterABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: White sturgeon iridovirus (WSIV) disease is caused by a virus of the eponymous family and is mostly triggered by stressful environmental conditions, i.e. high rearing density, excessive handling, or temporary loss of water. The aim of this study was to develop the most effective diagnostic method for quick and efficient confirmation or exclusion of the presence of WSIV. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 42 samples (spleen, gills, intestine, skin, kidney, and brain) were collected from eight sturgeon (Acipenser gueldenstaedtii and A. oxyrinchus) aged ≤5+ farmed or caught between 2010 and 2014 in open waters (Dabie Lake and Szczecin Lagoon). They were tested for WSIV presence using conventional PCR, qPCR, and in situ hybridisation (ISH). RESULTS: In gross examination, all fish appeared to be healthy. Neither species showed clinical signs typical of WSIV infection. In the majority of cases, fragments of iridoviral DNA were found using molecular methods in the kidneys, and also in the liver, gills, and skin. The detection rate using ISH was 47.37% and most commonly the brain and kidney tissues were positive. The most efficient of the methods used was real-time PCR, with 100% effectiveness in detection of WSIV DNA. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrates the capabilities for WSIV diagnosis available to sturgeon farmers and water administrators, indicating useful methods of adequate sensitivity as well as organs to sample in order to achieve the highest probability of viral detection.