Large performance variation does not affect outcome in the Finnish cervical cancer screening programme.

OBJECTIVE: Cytology screening for prevention of cervical cancer can reduce incidence and mortality by more than 80% in settings with good organization and rigorous quality control. Audit studies are essential for reaching and maintaining a high quality of screening. The aim of this study was to evaluate variation in performance indicators by screening laboratory and assess the impact on the effectiveness of screening as indicated by cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 and above (CIN3+) rates after a negative screen. METHODS: Seven cytology screening laboratories operating during 1990-1999 with a total of 953 610 screening tests performed were included in the study. By linking screening and cancer register files, all cases of CIN3+ diagnosed in the screened population were identified. For 395 CIN3+ cases with a preceding negative screen and 787 controls, a re-evaluation of smears was undertaken to uncover false negative screening tests. Performance parameters and rates of CIN3+ after a negative screen were analysed for interlaboratory heterogeneity. RESULTS: The rates of follow-up recommendations and referrals varied by up to 3.6- (2.8-10.2%) and 4.0-fold (0.03-0.12%), respectively. CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3+ screen detection rates differed by up to 8.5- (0.02-0.17%), 5.4- (0.05-0.25%) and 3.3-fold (0.05-0.18%). False negative rates determined by re-evaluation showed up to 2.1-fold differences (29-62%). Rates of CIN3+ after a negative screen (0.023-0.048%) and as a proportion of total CIN3+ (15-31%) in the screened population were low and did not vary significantly. CONCLUSIONS: There were large variations in the sensitivity-specificity trade-off between laboratories, reflected in all performance indicators as well as in the test validity estimates of the re-evaluation phase, but not in screening effectiveness. Even though performance variations do not always have an impact on the effectiveness of screening, they lead to variations in cost, treatment and psychological burden, and should be addressed.

Finnish study of intraoperative irrigation versus drain alone after evacuation of chronic subdural haematoma (FINISH): a study protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic subdural haematomas (CSDHs) are one of the most common neurosurgical conditions. The goal of surgery is to alleviate symptoms and minimise the risk of symptomatic recurrences. In the past, reoperation rates as high as 20%-30% were described for CSDH recurrences. However, following the introduction of subdural drainage, reoperation rates dropped to approximately 10%. The standard surgical technique includes burr-hole craniostomy, followed by intraoperative irrigation and placement of subdural drainage. Yet, the role of intraoperative irrigation has not been established. If there is no difference in recurrence rates between intraoperative irrigation and no irrigation, CSDH surgery could be carried out faster and more safely by omitting the step of irrigation. The aim of this multicentre randomised controlled trial is to study whether no intraoperative irrigation and subdural drainage results in non-inferior outcome compared with intraoperative irrigation and subdural drainage following burr-hole craniostomy of CSDH. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a prospective, randomised, controlled, parallel group, non-inferiority multicentre trial comparing single burr-hole evacuation of CSDH with intraoperative irrigation and evacuation of CSDH without irrigation. In both groups, a passive subdural drain is used for 48 hours as a standard of treatment. The primary outcome is symptomatic CSDH recurrence requiring reoperation within 6 months. The predefined non-inferiority margin for the primary outcome is 7.5%. To achieve a 2.5% level of significance and 80% power, we will randomise 270 patients per group. Secondary outcomes include modified Rankin Scale, rate of mortality, duration of operation, length of hospital stay, adverse events and change in volume of CSDH. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the institutional review board of the Helsinki and Uusimaa Hospital District (HUS/3035/2019 §238) and duly registered at ClinicalTrials.gov. We will disseminate the findings of this study through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04203550.

Population-based enrolment of adolescents in a long-term follow-up trial of human papillomavirus vaccine efficacy.

We evaluated a study setting for assessment of the long-term vaccine efficacy (VE) of human papillomavirus (HPV) virus-like-particle (VLP) vaccine against cervical carcinoma. A total of 22,412 16- to 17-year old adolescent women from seven cities in Finland were invited by letter to participate in a phase III study of a quadrivalent HPV (types 6, 11, 16, 18) VLP vaccine, between September 2002 and March 2003. A total of 30,947 18-year old women were invited to participate as unvaccinated controls. These women were asked about their willingness to participate in an HPV vaccination trial and to fill a health questionnaire. These three population-based cohorts of adolescent women, including women vaccinated with HPV vaccine or placebo vaccine and unvaccinated control women, are systematically followed over time. The study cohort database will be linked with the Finnish Cancer Registry using cervical carcinoma in situ (CIS) and invasive cervical carcinoma (ICC) as endpoints. Assuming that the cumulative incidence of CIS and ICC over 15 years is 0.45%, and that there is no loss to follow-up, and power of 80%, the determination of 70% total VE will require 3357 HPV vaccine recipients, 3357 placebo vaccine recipients, and 6714 unvaccinated controls. At the baseline, 2632 (12%) of the invited adolescents volunteered to the phase III vaccination trial, and 6790 (22%) responded to the questionnaire study. During a recruitment period of 10 months, 874 HPV vaccine recipients, 875 placebo recipients and 1919 unvaccinated controls were enrolled. Population-based enrollment of large cohorts of vaccinated and unvaccinated adolescents for passive registry-based follow-up with cervical carcinoma as the end-point is feasible and currently going on in Finland.

Prospective seroepidemiologic study of human papillomavirus infection as a risk factor for invasive cervical cancer.

BACKGROUND: Major risk factors for invasive cervical cancer include infection with human papillomavirus (HPV), infection with other sexually transmitted pathogens (e.g., Chlamydia trachomatis), and smoking. Since exposures to these risk factors can be related, the contribution of any single factor to cervical carcinogenesis has been difficult to assess. We conducted a prospective study to define the role of HPV infection in cervical carcinogenesis, with invasive cancer as an end point. METHODS: A nested case-control study within a joint cohort of 700,000 Nordic subjects was performed. The 182 women who developed invasive cervical cancer during a mean follow-up of 5 years were matched with 538 control women on the basis of age and time of enrollment. Serum samples taken at enrollment were analyzed for evidence of tobacco use (i.e., cotinine levels); for antibodies against HPV types 16, 18, and 33; and for antibodies against C. trachomatis. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated by use of conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Presence of antibodies against HPV in serum (seropositivity) was associated with an increased risk of cervical cancer, and adjustment for smoking and for C. trachomatis seropositivity did not affect this finding (RR = 2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6-3.7). HPV16 seropositivity was associated primarily with an increased risk of squamous cell carcinoma (RR = 3.2; 95% CI = 1.7-6.2). In contrast, risk associated with HPV18 seropositivity tended to be higher for cervical adenocarcinoma (RR = 3.4; 95% CI = 0.8-14.9). In populations with a low prevalence of antibodies against C. trachomatis, the HPV16-associated risk of cervical cancer was very high (RR = 11.8; 95% CI = 3.7-37.0); in contrast, in populations with a high prevalence of antibodies against C. trachomatis, no excess risk was found. CONCLUSION: Past infection with HPV16 increases the risk of invasive cervical squamous cell carcinoma, most clearly seen in populations with a low prevalence of sexually transmitted diseases.

A prospective, seroepidemiological study of the role of human papillomavirus in esophageal cancer in Norway.

Infection with the human papillomavirus (HPV), notably HPV type 16, has been associated with esophageal cancer in seroepidemiological studies. To evaluate the consistency of the association, we performed a nested case-control study of HPV seropositivity and risk of esophageal cancer within a prospectively followed cohort of 300,000 Norwegian men and women who had donated blood samples to a serum bank. The data file of the serum bank was linked with the nationwide Cancer Registry of Norway to identify esophageal cancers diagnosed after donation of the serum sample. Fifty-seven cases and 171 matched controls were analyzed for antibodies to specific microorganisms, and odds ratios for developing esophageal cancer were calculated. There was an increased risk of developing esophageal cancer among HPV 16-seropositive subjects (odds ratio = 6.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-71) but not among Chlamydia trachomatis-seropositive subjects. Adjustment for the presence of serum cotinine, a marker of smoking habits, did not affect the estimates substantially. The seroepidemiological association between HPV 16 and esophageal cancer seems to be consistent in different countries.

Process indicators from ten centres in the Finnish breast cancer screening programme from 1991 to 2000.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the quality of the Finnish mammography programme by assessing process indicators from 10 screening centres using data from the first and subsequent screens. We compared these screen-specific indicators with European standards and results from countries with similar screening protocols. Ten Finnish centres invited approximately 1,000,000 women from 1991-2000. Women were mainly 50-64 years old. Mean compliance amongst this age group was 90% at the first and 93% at subsequent screens. The corresponding recall rates were 4.6% and 2.3%, respectively. The average breast cancer detection rates were 0.44% and 0.36%, respectively. The positive predictive values (PPVs) of mammography at the first and subsequent screens were 10% (range 7-20%) and 16% (range 12-31%), and the corresponding benign to malignant (B:M) biopsy ratios were 1:1 (range 0.5-1.8:1) and 0.4:1 (range 0.3-0.8:1). The PPV of mammography increased significantly during the study period, and the average process indicators fulfilled the criteria of the European community for the most part. However, the variation in PPVs was wide, as has been seen for other European mammography programmes, indicating meaningful differences in diagnostic criteria and potential adverse effects.

Joint effects of different human papillomaviruses and Chlamydia trachomatis infections on risk of squamous cell carcinoma of the cervix uteri.

This case-control study based in Nordic serum banks evaluated the joint effects of infections with genital human papillomavirus (HPV) types, and Chlamydia trachomatis in the aetiology of cervical squamous cell carcinoma. Through a linkage with the cancer registries, 144 cases were identified and 420 controls matched to them. Exposure to past infections was defined by the presence of specific IgG antibodies. The odds ratio (OR) for the second-order interaction of HPV16, HPV6/11 and C. trachomatis was small (1.0) compared to the expected multiplicative OR, 57, and the additive OR, 11. The interactions were not materially different among HPV16 DNA-positive squamous cell carcinomas. When HPV16 was replaced with HPV18/33 in the analysis of second-order interactions with HPV6/11 and C. trachomatis, there was no evidence of interaction, the joint effect being close to the expected additive OR. Possible explanations for the observed antagonism include misclassification, selection bias or a true biological phenomenon with HPV6/11 and C. trachomatis exposures antagonizing the carcinogenic effects of HPV16.

Prospects for phase III-IV HPV vaccination trials in the Nordic countries and in Estonia.

BACKGROUND: oncogenic, i.e. high risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) types are the major cause of invasive cervical cancer (ICC). Putatively licensable vaccines against the hrHPVs have been developed and are approaching clinical phase III trials that use persistent HPV infection as end point. Direct extension of the phase III trials towards long-term end points (ICC and its immediate precursors: carcinoma in situ and severe dysplasia, i.e. cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III, CINIII) is important, to avoid early contamination of the target population by opportunistic use of licensed HPV vaccines. Country-wide registration on population and health events in a stable population of 25 million make Estonia and the Nordic countries a unique venue for long-term evaluation of cervical cancer control measures. Mass-screening programmes exist in all Nordic countries, but not in Estonia. AIM: design of phase III-IV trials for evaluation of protection against ICC and CINIII by preventive HPV vaccines based on cancer registry follow-up. RESULTS: in the Nordic countries, population based randomisation of all 15-year-old women to the vaccination (vaccine and placebo) and reference cohorts entering conventional Pap-smear screening after a clinical phase III trial would assure comparability of the cohorts. Enrollment of 10094 vaccinees +10094 placebo vaccinees +30282 other hrHPV negative women without vaccination at the age of 16 would give 80% power for the demonstration of 70% vaccine efficacy (VE) against ICC in 20 years by cancer registry follow-up. On the other hand, vaccination of 8303 Estonian hrHPV negative women among the entire 15-year-old female birth cohort (about 10000 women) with an already licensed HPV vaccine would enable demonstration of 70% VE against ICC by 20 years of registry follow-up of these and comparable 16606 women identified among the 16-19-year-old birth cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: evaluation of the protective effect of an HPV vaccine against ICC is possible both in countries with or without mass-screening. The effects of vaccination on spread of different HPVs in the population would need to be monitored, especially in Estonia. Ethical aspects, cost-benefit evaluation and comparisons with other new means of cervical cancer control warrant further investigation.

Cancer risk following a community-based programme to prevent cardiovascular diseases.

BACKGROUND: The North Karelia project, a community-based programme for prevention of cardiovascular diseases in North Karelia in 1972-1977, was successful in reducing some major cardiovascular risk factors. It was studied whether changes in the incidence of smoking- or diet-related cancers in North Karelia were different from those in a reference area without a programme. METHODS: Poisson age-period-cohort-county regression models were fitted to each cancer-sex combination. Specially designed variables were added to the best models to detect any post-programme changes in the incidence trend in North Karelia. RESULTS: After having been consistently higher, the incidence of lung cancer among males in North Karelia decreased below that of the reference county during 1987-1991. The programme-related risk ratio in 1987-1991 indicated a significant 20% beneficial effect. The trend in stomach cancer among males was more favourable in the reference county than in North Karelia. CONCLUSION: The quicker reduction in smoking may have caused the more favourable trend of lung cancer among North Karelian males than males in the reference county.

Statistical modelling and prediction of lung cancer mortality in the Czech and Slovak Republics, 1960-1999.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to analyse the pattern of lung cancer mortality from 1960 to 1989 and to predict lung cancer mortality for 1990-1999 for males and females aged > or = 30 years in the Czech and Slovak Republics. METHOD: The mortality pattern of lung cancer was examined and predicted using republic-age-period-cohort models. RESULTS: Trends in lung cancer mortality were upward for both sexes over the study period. In the early 1960s, lung cancer mortality in Slovak males was much lower than that in Czech males, but since the late 1960s lung cancer mortality in males increased more rapidly in Slovakia than in the Czech Republic. It was predicted that mortality due to lung cancer in Slovak males would exceed that in Czech males during the last 5 years of the 20th century. Slovak female lung cancer mortality was lower than that for Czech females throughout the study period, and the trends in both republics were similar.

Work load and individual factors affecting work disability among aging municipal employees.

A cohort of 6165 municipal workers 44 to 58 years of age was followed during 1981-1985. The most impairing work loads were poor work postures and poor physical climate, whereas good possibilities for development at work prevented work disability. Aging particularly increased the incidence of work disability, whereas physical exercise maintained work ability. Among workers who suffered from any cardiovascular disease, a low level of muscular work and a high level of leisure-time physical exercise decreased work disability. Compared with the work ability of active workers, work disability was more linked to individual than to work load factors.

Lung cancer and smoking in Finland and the Czech Republic. Recent trends and predictions.

Trends of mortality from lung cancer in 1953-1989, age-specific lung cancer death rates of five-year birth cohorts, and the cigarette consumption were compared in Finland and the Czech Republic. While the lung cancer mortality and the smoking habits were fairly similar in Finland and the Czech Republic in the 1950s and early 1960s, contrasting differences gradually developed over the subsequent three decades in favor of Finland. In the year 1989, the Czech lung cancer death rates were much higher than the Finnish rates: in males 75.8 vs. 48.1 per 100,000; in females 9.3 vs. 6.6 per 100,000 (adjusted to the world standard population). Results obtained by descriptive epidemiologic methods support the opinion that a major part of the positive changes in the lung cancer epidemic in Finland can be explained as a consequence of the comprehensive smoking control program introduced in this country, including a significant decline in tar yield of cigarettes. In view of a long latency period between exposure and the development of disease, a continuing upward trend in lung cancer mortality is to be expected in the Czech Republic, particularly in females, resulting in an increase in the gap between Czech and Finnish lung cancer mortality. To achieve in future a falling trend in lung cancer rates even in the Czech Republic, amendments in the smoking control system according to the recommendations of the World Health Organization and International Union against Cancer are of importance.

Cancer incidence following chlorophenol exposure in a community in southern Finland.

Chlorophenols have contaminated the drinking water system and the local lake in the village of Järvelä in southern Finland. Local geology, ground water streams, and chemical analyses incriminated a local sawmill as the only plausible source of exposure. Cancer incidence in the municipality of Kärkölä (half of the population lives in Järvelä), compared with the rest of the local health-care district and with the greater cancer control region, indicated an excess of soft-tissue sarcomas and non-Hodgkin's lymphomas. A case-control study, which focused on cancers of the colon, bladder and soft tissues, lymphomas, and leukemia, demonstrated a significantly elevated risk ratio for non-Hodgkin's lymphomas among persons who consumed fish from the local lake, which was contaminated with chlorophenols. Probable exposure to chlorophenol-contaminated drinking water played a role in the increased incidence of non-Hodgkin's lymphomas and possibly was a factor in the development of soft-tissue sarcoma.

Serologically diagnosed infection with human papillomavirus type 16 and risk for subsequent development of cervical carcinoma: nested case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To study human papillomavirus type 16 in the aetiology of cervical carcinoma. DESIGN: Within a cohort of 18814 Finnish women followed up to 23 years a nested case-control study was conducted based on serological diagnosis of past infection with human papillomavirus type 16. SUBJECTS: 72 women (27 with invasive carcinoma and 45 with in situ carcinoma) and 143 matched controls were identified during the follow up. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Relative risk of cervical carcinoma in presence of IgG antibodies to human papillomavirus type 16. RESULTS: After adjustment for smoking and for antibodies to various other agents of sexually transmitted disease, such as herpes simplex virus type 2 and Chlamydia trachomatis, the only significant association was with infection with human papillomavirus type 16 (odds ratio 12.5; 95% confidence interval 2.7 to 57, 2P<0.001). CONCLUSION: This prospective study provides epidemiological evidence that infection with human papillomavirus type 16 confers an excess risk for subsequent development of cervical carcinoma.

Prospective seroepidemiological study of role of human papillomavirus in non-cervical anogenital cancers.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between infection with the major oncogenic types of human papillomavirus and the risk of developing non-cervical anogenital cancers in a cohort followed up prospectively. DESIGN: Data from two large serum banks to which about 700,000 people had donated serum samples were followed up for a mean of 8 years. People who developed non-cervical anogenital cancers during follow up were identified by registry linkage with the nationwide cancer registries in Finland and Norway. Within this cohort a nested case-control study was conducted based on the serological diagnosis of infection with human papillomavirus types 16, 18, and 33. SUBJECTS: 81 cases and 240 controls matched for sex, age, and storage time of serum samples. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Odds ratios of developing non-cervical anogenital cancers in presence of IgG antibodies to specific micro-organisms. RESULTS: Subjects seropositive for human papillomavirus type 16 had an increased risk of developing non-cervical anogenital cancers (odds ratio 3.1 (95% confidence interval 1.4 to 6.9)). Subjects seropositive for type 33 also had an increased risk (odds ratio 2.8 (1.0 to 8.3)) but not significantly after adjustment for infection with type 16. Seropositivity for human papillomavirus type 16 was associated with an increased risk of developing vulvar and vaginal cancers (odds ratio 4.5 (1.1 to 22)) and a strongly increased risk of developing preinvasive vulvar and vaginal lesions (odds ratio infinity (3.8 to infinity)). Seropositivity for human papillomavirus type 18 increased the risk of developing preinvasive lesions (odds ratio 12 (1.2 to 590)). High, but non-significant odds ratios for types 16 and 33 were seen for penile cancers. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides prospective seroepidemiological evidence that infection with human papillomavirus type 16 confers an increased risk of developing non-cervical genital cancers, particularly vulvar and vaginal cancers.

Joint Nordic prospective study on human herpesvirus 8 and multiple myeloma risk.

An association between human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8) and multiple myeloma (MM) has been reported, though most studies have not confirmed such association. To follow-up on a previous prospective seroepidemiological study, where HHV8 tended to associate with MM risk, we linked five large serum banks in the Nordic countries with the Nordic cancer registries and 329 prospectively occurring cases of MM were identified, together with 1631 control subjects matched by age and gender. The HHV8 seroprevalences among cases and controls were similar (12 and 15%, respectively) and HHV8 seropositivity did not associate with the risk of MM, neither when considering positivity for lytic antibodies (relative risk (RR) = 0.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.5-1.1) nor for latent antibodies (RR = 0.6, 95% CI = 0.1-2.7). Similar risks were seen when analysis was restricted to case-control sets with at least 2 years lag before diagnosis (RR = 0.8, 95% CI = 0.5-1.2 and RR = 0.9, 95% CI = 0.1-4.2). In conclusion, the data indicate that HHV8 infection is not associated with MM.