Identification and transcriptomic assessment of latent profile pediatric septic shock phenotypes.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis poses a grave threat, especially among children, but treatments are limited owing to heterogeneity among patients. We sought to test the clinical and biological relevance of pediatric septic shock subclasses identified using reproducible approaches. METHODS: We performed latent profile analyses using clinical, laboratory, and biomarker data from a prospective multi-center pediatric septic shock observational cohort to derive phenotypes and trained a support vector machine model to assign phenotypes in an internal validation set. We established the clinical relevance of phenotypes and tested for their interaction with common sepsis treatments on patient outcomes. We conducted transcriptomic analyses to delineate phenotype-specific biology and inferred underlying cell subpopulations. Finally, we compared whether latent profile phenotypes overlapped with established gene-expression endotypes and compared survival among patients based on an integrated subclassification scheme. RESULTS: Among 1071 pediatric septic shock patients requiring vasoactive support on day 1 included, we identified two phenotypes which we designated as Phenotype 1 (19.5%) and Phenotype 2 (80.5%). Membership in Phenotype 1 was associated with ~ fourfold adjusted odds of complicated course relative to Phenotype 2. Patients belonging to Phenotype 1 were characterized by relatively higher Angiopoietin-2/Tie-2 ratio, Angiopoietin-2, soluble thrombomodulin (sTM), interleukin 8 (IL-8), and intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1) and lower Tie-2 and Angiopoietin-1 concentrations compared to Phenotype 2. We did not identify significant interactions between phenotypes, common treatments, and clinical outcomes. Transcriptomic analysis revealed overexpression of genes implicated in the innate immune response and driven primarily by developing neutrophils among patients designated as Phenotype 1. There was no statistically significant overlap between established gene-expression endotypes, reflective of the host adaptive response, and the newly derived phenotypes, reflective of the host innate response including microvascular endothelial dysfunction. However, an integrated subclassification scheme demonstrated varying survival probabilities when comparing patient endophenotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Our research underscores the reproducibility of latent profile analyses to identify pediatric septic shock phenotypes with high prognostic relevance. Pending validation, an integrated subclassification scheme, reflective of the different facets of the host response, holds promise to inform targeted intervention among those critically ill.

Biomarker Assessment of a High-Risk, Data-Driven Pediatric Sepsis Phenotype Characterized by Persistent Hypoxemia, Encephalopathy, and Shock.

OBJECTIVES: Identification of children with sepsis-associated multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) at risk for poor outcomes remains a challenge. We sought to the determine reproducibility of the data-driven "persistent hypoxemia, encephalopathy, and shock" (PHES) phenotype and determine its association with inflammatory and endothelial biomarkers, as well as biomarker-based pediatric risk strata. DESIGN: We retrained and validated a random forest classifier using organ dysfunction subscores in the 2012-2018 electronic health record (EHR) dataset used to derive the PHES phenotype. We used this classifier to assign phenotype membership in a test set consisting of prospectively (2003-2023) enrolled pediatric septic shock patients. We compared profiles of the PERSEVERE family of biomarkers among those with and without the PHES phenotype and determined the association with established biomarker-based mortality and MODS risk strata. SETTING: Twenty-five PICUs across the United States. PATIENTS: EHR data from 15,246 critically ill patients with sepsis-associated MODS split into derivation and validation sets and 1,270 pediatric septic shock patients in the test set of whom 615 had complete biomarker data. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of the modified classifier to predict PHES phenotype membership was 0.91 (95% CI, 0.90-0.92) in the EHR validation set. In the test set, PHES phenotype membership was associated with both increased adjusted odds of complicated course (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4.1; 95% CI, 3.2-5.4) and 28-day mortality (aOR of 4.8; 95% CI, 3.11-7.25) after controlling for age, severity of illness, and immunocompromised status. Patients belonging to the PHES phenotype were characterized by greater degree of systemic inflammation and endothelial activation, and were more likely to be stratified as high risk based on PERSEVERE biomarkers predictive of death and persistent MODS. CONCLUSIONS: The PHES trajectory-based phenotype is reproducible, independently associated with poor clinical outcomes, and overlapped with higher risk strata based on prospectively validated biomarker approaches.

Prognostic and predictive value of endothelial dysfunction biomarkers in sepsis-associated acute kidney injury: risk-stratified analysis from a prospective observational cohort of pediatric septic shock.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis-associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI) is associated with high morbidity, with no current therapies available beyond continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). Systemic inflammation and endothelial dysfunction are key drivers of SA-AKI. We sought to measure differences between endothelial dysfunction markers among children with and without SA-AKI, test whether this association varied across inflammatory biomarker-based risk strata, and develop prediction models to identify those at highest risk of SA-AKI. METHODS: Secondary analyses of prospective observational cohort of pediatric septic shock. Primary outcome of interest was the presence of ≥ Stage II KDIGO SA-AKI on day 3 based on serum creatinine (D3 SA-AKI SCr). Biomarkers including those prospectively validated to predict pediatric sepsis mortality (PERSEVERE-II) were measured in Day 1 (D1) serum. Multivariable regression was used to test the independent association between endothelial markers and D3 SA-AKI SCr. We conducted risk-stratified analyses and developed prediction models using Classification and Regression Tree (CART), to estimate risk of D3 SA-AKI among prespecified subgroups based on PERSEVERE-II risk. RESULTS: A total of 414 patients were included in the derivation cohort. Patients with D3 SA-AKI SCr had worse clinical outcomes including 28-day mortality and need for CRRT. Serum soluble thrombomodulin (sTM), Angiopoietin-2 (Angpt-2), and Tie-2 were independently associated with D3 SA-AKI SCr. Further, Tie-2 and Angpt-2/Tie-2 ratios were influenced by the interaction between D3 SA-AKI SCr and risk strata. Logistic regression demonstrated models predictive of D3 SA-AKI risk performed optimally among patients with high- or intermediate-PERSEVERE-II risk strata. A 6 terminal node CART model restricted to this subgroup of patients had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.90 and 0.77 upon tenfold cross-validation in the derivation cohort to distinguish those with and without D3 SA-AKI SCr and high specificity. The newly derived model performed modestly in a unique set of patients (n = 224), 84 of whom were deemed high- or intermediate-PERSEVERE-II risk, to distinguish those patients with high versus low risk of D3 SA-AKI SCr. CONCLUSIONS: Endothelial dysfunction biomarkers are independently associated with risk of severe SA-AKI. Pending validation, incorporation of endothelial biomarkers may facilitate prognostic and predictive enrichment for selection of therapeutics in future clinical trials among critically ill children.

Detrimental effects of PCSK9 loss-of-function in the pediatric host response to sepsis are mediated through independent influence on Angiopoietin-1.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is associated with significant mortality. Yet, there are no efficacious therapies beyond antibiotics. PCSK9 loss-of-function (LOF) and inhibition, through enhanced low-density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR) mediated endotoxin clearance, holds promise as a potential therapeutic approach among adults. In contrast, we have previously demonstrated higher mortality in the juvenile host. Given the potential pleiotropic effects of PCSK9 on the endothelium, beyond canonical effects on serum lipoproteins, both of which may influence sepsis outcomes, we sought to test the influence of PCSK9 LOF genotype on endothelial dysfunction. METHODS: Secondary analyses of a prospective observational cohort of pediatric septic shock. Genetic variants of PCSK9 and LDLR genes, serum PCSK9, and lipoprotein concentrations were determined previously. Endothelial dysfunction markers were measured in day 1 serum. We conducted multivariable linear regression to test the influence of PCSK9 LOF genotype on endothelial markers, adjusted for age, complicated course, and low- and high-density lipoproteins (LDL and HDL). Causal mediation analyses to test impact of select endothelial markers on the association between PCSK9 LOF genotype and mortality. Juvenile Pcsk9 null and wildtype mice were subject to cecal slurry sepsis and endothelial markers were quantified. RESULTS: A total of 474 patients were included. PCSK9 LOF was associated with several markers of endothelial dysfunction, with strengthening of associations after exclusion of those homozygous for the rs688 LDLR variant that renders it insensitive to PCSK9. Serum PCSK9 was not correlated with endothelial dysfunction. PCSK9 LOF influenced concentrations of Angiopoietin-1 (Angpt-1) upon adjusting for potential confounders including lipoprotein concentrations, with false discovery adjusted p value of 0.042 and 0.013 for models that included LDL and HDL, respectively. Causal mediation analysis demonstrated that the effect of PCSK9 LOF on mortality was mediated by Angpt-1 (p = 0.0008). Murine data corroborated these results with lower Angpt-1 and higher soluble thrombomodulin among knockout mice with sepsis relative to the wildtype. CONCLUSIONS: We present genetic and biomarker association data that suggest a potential direct role of the PCSK9-LDLR pathway on Angpt-1 in the developing host with septic shock and warrant external validation. Further, mechanistic studies on the role of PCSK9-LDLR pathway on vascular homeostasis may lead to the development of pediatric-specific sepsis therapies.

Serum renin and prorenin concentrations predict severe persistent acute kidney injury and mortality in pediatric septic shock.

BACKGROUND: Studies in critically ill adults demonstrate associations between serum renin concentrations (a proposed surrogate for renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system dysregulation) and poor outcomes, but data in critically ill children are lacking. We assessed serum renin + prorenin concentrations in children with septic shock to determine their predictive ability for acute kidney injury (AKI) and mortality. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of a multicenter observational study of children aged 1 week to 18 years admitted to 14 pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) with septic shock and residual serum available for renin + prorenin measurement. Primary outcomes were development of severe persistent AKI (≥ KDIGO stage 2 for ≥ 48 h) in the first week and 28-day mortality. RESULTS: Among 233 patients, day 1 median renin + prorenin concentration was 3436 pg/ml (IQR 1452-6567). Forty-two (18%) developed severe persistent AKI and 32 (14%) died. Day 1 serum renin + prorenin predicted severe persistent AKI with an AUROC of 0.75 (95% CI 0.66-0.84, p < 0.0001; optimal cutoff 6769 pg/ml) and mortality with an AUROC of 0.79 (95% CI 0.69-0.89, p < 0.0001; optimal cutoff 6521 pg/ml). Day 3/day 1 (D3:D1) renin + prorenin ratio had an AUROC of 0.73 (95% CI 0.63-0.84, p < 0.001) for mortality. On multivariable regression, day 1 renin + prorenin > optimal cutoff retained associations with severe persistent AKI (aOR 6.8, 95% CI 3.0-15.8, p < 0.001) and mortality (aOR 6.9, 95% CI 2.2-20.9, p < 0.001). Similarly, D3:D1 renin + prorenin > optimal cutoff was associated with mortality (aOR 7.6, 95% CI 2.5-23.4, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Children with septic shock have very elevated serum renin + prorenin concentrations on PICU admission, and these concentrations, as well as their trend over the first 72 h, predict severe persistent AKI and mortality. A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

Integrated PERSEVERE and endothelial biomarker risk model predicts death and persistent MODS in pediatric septic shock: a secondary analysis of a prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) is a critical driver of sepsis morbidity and mortality in children. Early identification of those at risk of death and persistent organ dysfunctions is necessary to enrich patients for future trials of sepsis therapeutics. Here, we sought to integrate endothelial and PERSEVERE biomarkers to estimate the composite risk of death or organ dysfunctions on day 7 of septic shock. METHODS: We measured endothelial dysfunction markers from day 1 serum among those with existing PERSEVERE data. TreeNet® classification model was derived incorporating 22 clinical and biological variables to estimate risk. Based on relative variable importance, a simplified 6-biomarker model was developed thereafter. RESULTS: Among 502 patients, 49 patients died before day 7 and 124 patients had persistence of MODS on day 7 of septic shock. Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) for the newly derived PERSEVEREnce model to predict death or day 7 MODS was 0.93 (0.91-0.95) with a summary AUROC of 0.80 (0.76-0.84) upon tenfold cross-validation. The simplified model, based on IL-8, HSP70, ICAM-1, Angpt2/Tie2, Angpt2/Angpt1, and Thrombomodulin, performed similarly. Interaction between variables-ICAM-1 with IL-8 and Thrombomodulin with Angpt2/Angpt1-contributed to the models' predictive capabilities. Model performance varied when estimating risk of individual organ dysfunctions with AUROCS ranging from 0.91 to 0.97 and 0.68 to 0.89 in training and test sets, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The newly derived PERSEVEREnce biomarker model reliably estimates risk of death or persistent organ dysfunctions on day 7 of septic shock. If validated, this tool can be used for prognostic enrichment in future pediatric trials of sepsis therapeutics.

PERSEVERE Biomarkers Predict Severe Acute Kidney Injury and Renal Recovery in Pediatric Septic Shock.

Rationale: Acute kidney injury (AKI), a common complication of sepsis, is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality and lacks definitive disease-modifying therapy. Early, reliable identification of at-risk patients is important for targeted implementation of renal protective measures. The updated Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model (PERSEVERE-II) is a validated, multibiomarker prognostic enrichment strategy to estimate baseline mortality risk in pediatric septic shock.Objectives: To assess the association between PERSEVERE-II mortality probability and the development of severe, sepsis-associated AKI on Day 3 (D3 SA-AKI) in pediatric septic shock.Methods: We performed secondary analysis of a prospective observational study of children with septic shock in whom the PERSEVERE biomarkers were measured to assign a PERSEVERE-II baseline mortality risk.Measurements and Main Results: Among 379 patients, 65 (17%) developed severe D3 SA-AKI. The proportion of patients developing severe D3 SA-AKI increased directly with increasing PERSEVERE-II risk category, and increasing PERSEVERE-II mortality probability was independently associated with increased odds of severe D3 SA-AKI after adjustment for age and illness severity (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-1.7; P < 0.001). Similar associations were found between increasing PERSEVERE-II mortality probability and the need for renal replacement therapy. Lower PERSEVERE-II mortality probability was independently associated with increased odds of renal recovery among patients with early AKI. A newly derived model incorporating the PERSEVERE biomarkers and Day 1 AKI status predicted severe D3 SA-AKI with an area under the received operating characteristic curve of 0.95 (95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.98).Conclusions: Among children with septic shock, the PERSEVERE biomarkers predict severe D3 SA-AKI and identify patients with early AKI who are likely to recover.

Resuscitation With Ringer's Lactate Compared With Normal Saline for Pediatric Diabetic Ketoacidosis.

OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to describe the use of Ringer's lactate (LR) or normal saline (NS) for resuscitation among children with diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and compare the effect of fluid type on cost, length of stay, and rate of cerebral edema (CE). METHODS: This is a retrospective study of 49,737 children aged 0 to 17 years with DKA between January 1, 2005, and September 30, 2015, using data from the Pediatric Health Information System. Treatment with LR or NS was identified. Our primary outcomes were total adjusted cost and length of stay. Our secondary outcome was CE rate per 1000 episodes. RESULTS: The majority of patients were treated with NS (n = 43,841 [88%]) compared with LR (n = 1762 [4%]) or both NS and LR (n = 4134 [8%]). Hospital-year-specific practice patterns were used to investigate the effect of fluid type across resuscitation fluid groups. Total adjusted cost was $1160 less (95% confidence interval, -1468 to -852), or -14.2%, for cases with any episode of LR compared with NS only. Length of stay was not different across groups. The rate of cerebral edema per 1000 episodes was 12.7 for cases with any episode of LR compared with 34.6 NS only (difference, -21.9; 95% confidence interval, -30.4 to -13.3). CONCLUSIONS: Ringer's lactate was infrequently used for resuscitation of pediatric DKA patients. However, resuscitation with LR compared with NS was associated with lower total cost and rates of CE. Further investigation using patient-level clinical and laboratory data is needed to evaluate factors that drive cost and risk of CE development with each fluid.

Therapeutic Hypothermia after In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in Children.

BACKGROUND: Targeted temperature management is recommended for comatose adults and children after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest; however, data on temperature management after in-hospital cardiac arrest are limited. METHODS: In a trial conducted at 37 children's hospitals, we compared two temperature interventions in children who had had in-hospital cardiac arrest. Within 6 hours after the return of circulation, comatose children older than 48 hours and younger than 18 years of age were randomly assigned to therapeutic hypothermia (target temperature, 33.0°C) or therapeutic normothermia (target temperature, 36.8°C). The primary efficacy outcome, survival at 12 months after cardiac arrest with a score of 70 or higher on the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales, second edition (VABS-II, on which scores range from 20 to 160, with higher scores indicating better function), was evaluated among patients who had had a VABS-II score of at least 70 before the cardiac arrest. RESULTS: The trial was terminated because of futility after 329 patients had undergone randomization. Among the 257 patients who had a VABS-II score of at least 70 before cardiac arrest and who could be evaluated, the rate of the primary efficacy outcome did not differ significantly between the hypothermia group and the normothermia group (36% [48 of 133 patients] and 39% [48 of 124 patients], respectively; relative risk, 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.67 to 1.27; P=0.63). Among 317 patients who could be evaluated for change in neurobehavioral function, the change in VABS-II score from baseline to 12 months did not differ significantly between the groups (P=0.70). Among 327 patients who could be evaluated for 1-year survival, the rate of 1-year survival did not differ significantly between the hypothermia group and the normothermia group (49% [81 of 166 patients] and 46% [74 of 161 patients], respectively; relative risk, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.34; P=0.56). The incidences of blood-product use, infection, and serious adverse events, as well as 28-day mortality, did not differ significantly between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among comatose children who survived in-hospital cardiac arrest, therapeutic hypothermia, as compared with therapeutic normothermia, did not confer a significant benefit in survival with a favorable functional outcome at 1 year. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; THAPCA-IH ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00880087 .).

Proprotein Convertase Subtilisin/Kexin Type 9 Loss-of-Function Is Detrimental to the Juvenile Host With Septic Shock.

OBJECTIVES: Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 is a central regulator of lipid metabolism and has been implicated in regulating the host response to sepsis. Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 loss-of-function is associated with improved sepsis outcomes in the adult host through increased hepatic bacterial clearance. Thus, there is interest in leveraging proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitors as a therapeutic strategy in adults with sepsis. We sought to validate this association in children with septic shock and in a juvenile murine model of sepsis. DESIGN: Prospectively enrolled cohort of children with septic shock; experimental mice. SETTING: Seventeen participating institutions; research laboratory. PATIENTS AND SUBJECTS: Five-hundred twenty-two children with septic shock; juvenile (14 d old) and adult (10-14 wk) mice with constitutive proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 null and wildtype control mice (C57BL/6). INTERVENTIONS: Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, serum proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9, and lipid profiles in patients. Cecal slurry murine model of sepsis; survival studies in juvenile and adult mice, assessment of lipoprotein fractions, bacterial burden, and inflammation in juvenile mice. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: PCSK9 loss-of-function genetic variants were independently associated with increased odds of complicated course and mortality in children with septic shock. PCSK9, low-density lipoprotein, and high-density lipoprotein concentrations were lower among patients with complicated course relative to those without. PCSK9 concentrations negatively correlated with proinflammatory cytokine interleukin-8. Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 loss-of-function decreased survival in juvenile mice, but increased survival in adult mice with sepsis. PCSK9 loss-of-function resulted in low lipoproteins and decreased hepatic bacterial burden in juvenile mice. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to the adult host, proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 loss-of-function is detrimental to the juvenile host with septic shock. PCSK9 loss-of-function, in the context of low lipoproteins, may result in reduced hepatic bacterial clearance in the juvenile host with septic shock. Our data indicate that children should be excluded in sepsis clinical trials involving proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitors.

Therapeutic hypothermia after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in children.

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic hypothermia is recommended for comatose adults after witnessed out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, but data about this intervention in children are limited. METHODS: We conducted this trial of two targeted temperature interventions at 38 children's hospitals involving children who remained unconscious after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Within 6 hours after the return of circulation, comatose patients who were older than 2 days and younger than 18 years of age were randomly assigned to therapeutic hypothermia (target temperature, 33.0°C) or therapeutic normothermia (target temperature, 36.8°C). The primary efficacy outcome, survival at 12 months after cardiac arrest with a Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales, second edition (VABS-II), score of 70 or higher (on a scale from 20 to 160, with higher scores indicating better function), was evaluated among patients with a VABS-II score of at least 70 before cardiac arrest. RESULTS: A total of 295 patients underwent randomization. Among the 260 patients with data that could be evaluated and who had a VABS-II score of at least 70 before cardiac arrest, there was no significant difference in the primary outcome between the hypothermia group and the normothermia group (20% vs. 12%; relative likelihood, 1.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.86 to 2.76; P=0.14). Among all the patients with data that could be evaluated, the change in the VABS-II score from baseline to 12 months was not significantly different (P=0.13) and 1-year survival was similar (38% in the hypothermia group vs. 29% in the normothermia group; relative likelihood, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.93 to 1.79; P=0.13). The groups had similar incidences of infection and serious arrhythmias, as well as similar use of blood products and 28-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In comatose children who survived out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, therapeutic hypothermia, as compared with therapeutic normothermia, did not confer a significant benefit in survival with a good functional outcome at 1 year. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and others; THAPCA-OH ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00878644.).

Endotype Transitions During the Acute Phase of Pediatric Septic Shock Reflect Changing Risk and Treatment Response.

OBJECTIVE: We previously identified septic shock endotypes A and B based on 100 genes reflecting adaptive immunity and glucocorticoid receptor signaling. The endotypes differ with respect to outcome and corticosteroid responsiveness. We determined whether endotypes change during the initial 3 days of illness, and whether changes are associated with outcomes. DESIGN: Observational cohort study including existing and newly enrolled participants. SETTING: Multiple PICUs. PATIENTS: Children with septic shock. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We measured the 100 endotyping genes at day 1 and day 3 of illness in 375 patients. We determined if endotype assignment changes over time, and whether changing endotype is associated with corticosteroid response and outcomes. We used multivariable logistic regression to adjust for illness severity, age, and comorbidity burden. Among the 132 subjects assigned to endotype A on day 1, 56 (42%) transitioned to endotype B by day 3. Among 243 subjects assigned to endotype B on day 1, 77 (32%) transitioned to endotype A by day 3. Assignment to endotype A on day 1 was associated with increased odds of mortality. This risk was modified by the subsequent day 3 endotype assignment. Corticosteroids were associated with increased risk of mortality among subjects who persisted as endotype A. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of children with septic shock transition endotypes during the acute phase of illness. The risk of poor outcome and the response to corticosteroids change with changes in endotype assignment. Patients persisting as endotype A are at highest risk of poor outcomes.

Hyperchloremia Is Associated With Complicated Course and Mortality in Pediatric Patients With Septic Shock.

OBJECTIVE: Hyperchloremia is associated with poor outcome among critically ill adults, but it is unknown if a similar association exists among critically ill children. We determined if hyperchloremia is associated with poor outcomes in children with septic shock. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of a pediatric septic shock database. SETTING: Twenty-nine PICUs in the United States. PATIENTS: Eight hundred ninety children 10 years and younger with septic shock. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We considered the minimum, maximum, and mean chloride values during the initial 7 days of septic shock for each study subject as separate hyperchloremia variables. Within each category, we considered hyperchloremia as a dichotomous variable defined as a serum concentration greater than or equal to 110 mmol/L. We used multivariable logistic regression to determine the association between the hyperchloremia variables and outcome, adjusted for illness severity. We considered all cause 28-day mortality and complicated course as the primary outcome variables. Complicated course was defined as mortality by 28 days or persistence of greater than or equal to two organ failures at day 7 of septic shock. Secondarily, we conducted a stratified analysis using a biomarker-based mortality risk stratification tool. There were 226 patients (25%) with a complicated course and 93 mortalities (10%). Seventy patients had a minimum chloride greater than or equal to 110 mmol/L, 179 had a mean chloride greater than or equal to 110 mmol/L, and 514 had a maximum chloride greater than or equal to 110 mmol/L. A minimum chloride greater than or equal to 110 mmol/L was associated with increased odds of complicated course (odds ratio, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.2; p = 0.023) and mortality (odds ratio, 3.7; 95% CI, 2.0-6.8; p < 0.001). A mean chloride greater than or equal to 110 mmol/L was also associated with increased odds of mortality (odds ratio, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.3-3.5; p = 0.002). The secondary analysis yielded similar results. CONCLUSION: Hyperchloremia is independently associated with poor outcomes among children with septic shock.

Improved Risk Stratification in Pediatric Septic Shock Using Both Protein and mRNA Biomarkers. PERSEVERE-XP.

RATIONALE: We previously derived and validated the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model (PERSEVERE) to estimate baseline mortality risk in children with septic shock. The PERSEVERE biomarkers are serum proteins selected from among the proteins directly related to 80 mortality risk assessment genes. The initial approach to selecting the PERSEVERE biomarkers left 68 genes unconsidered. OBJECTIVES: To determine if the 68 previously unconsidered genes can improve upon the performance of PERSEVERE and to provide biological information regarding the pathophysiology of septic shock. METHODS: We reduced the number of variables by determining the biological linkage of the 68 previously unconsidered genes. The genes identified through variable reduction were combined with the PERSEVERE-based mortality probability to derive a risk stratification model for 28-day mortality using classification and regression tree methodology (n = 307). The derived tree, PERSEVERE-XP, was then tested in a separate cohort (n = 77). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Variable reduction revealed a network consisting of 18 mortality risk assessment genes related to tumor protein 53 (TP53). In the derivation cohort, PERSEVERE-XP had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.90 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.95) for differentiating between survivors and nonsurvivors. In the test cohort, the AUC was 0.96 (95% confidence interval, 0.91-1.0). The AUC of PERSEVERE-XP was superior to that of PERSEVERE. CONCLUSIONS: PERSEVERE-XP combines protein and mRNA biomarkers to provide mortality risk stratification with possible clinical utility. PERSEVERE-XP significantly improves on PERSEVERE and suggests a role for TP53-related cellular division, repair, and metabolism in the pathophysiology of septic shock.

Glucocorticoid Receptor Polymorphisms and Outcomes in Pediatric Septic Shock.

OBJECTIVE: Polymorphisms of the glucocorticoid receptor gene are associated with outcome and corticosteroid responsiveness among patients with inflammatory disorders. We conducted a candidate gene association study to test the hypothesis that these polymorphisms are associated with outcome and corticosteroid responsiveness among children with septic shock. DESIGN: We genotyped 482 children with septic shock for the presence of two glucocorticoid receptor polymorphisms (rs56149945 and rs41423247) associated with increased sensitivity and one glucocorticoid receptor polymorphism (rs6198) associated with decreased sensitivity to corticosteroids. The primary outcome variable was complicated course, defined as 28-day mortality or the persistence of two or more organ failures 7 days after a septic shock diagnosis. We used logistic regression to test for an association between corticosteroid exposure and outcome, within genotype group, and adjusted for illness severity. SETTING: Multiple PICUs in the United States. INTERVENTIONS: Standard care. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: There were no differences in outcome when comparing the various genotype groups. Among patients homozygous for the wild-type glucocorticoid receptor allele, corticosteroids were independently associated with increased odds of complicated course (odds ratio, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.01-5.21; p = 0.047). CONCLUSIONS: Based on these glucocorticoid receptor polymorphisms, we could not detect a beneficial effect of corticosteroids among any genotype group. Among children homozygous for the wild-type allele, corticosteroids were independently associated with increased odds of poor outcome.

Combining Prognostic and Predictive Enrichment Strategies to Identify Children With Septic Shock Responsive to Corticosteroids.

OBJECTIVES: Prognostic and predictive enrichment strategies are fundamental tools of precision medicine. Identifying children with septic shock who may benefit from corticosteroids remains a challenge. We combined prognostic and predictive strategies to identify a pediatric septic shock subgroup responsive to corticosteroids. DESIGN: We conducted a secondary analysis of 288 previously published pediatric subjects with septic shock. For prognostic enrichment, each study subject was assigned a baseline mortality probability using the pediatric sepsis biomarker risk model. For predictive enrichment, each study subject was allocated to one of two septic shock endotypes, based on a 100-gene signature reflecting adaptive immunity and glucocorticoid receptor signaling. The primary study endpoint was complicated course, defined as the persistence of two or more organ failures at day 7 of septic shock or 28-day mortality. We used logistic regression to test for an association between corticosteroids and complicated course within endotype. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among endotype B subjects at intermediate to high pediatric sepsis biomarker risk model-based risk of mortality, corticosteroids were independently associated with more than a 10-fold reduction in the risk of a complicated course (relative risk, 0.09; 95% CI, 0.01-0.54; p = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: A combination of prognostic and predictive strategies based on serum protein and messenger RNA biomarkers can identify a subgroup of children with septic shock who may be more likely to benefit from corticosteroids. Prospective validation of these strategies and the existence of this subgroup are warranted.

Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II: Redefining the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model With Septic Shock Phenotype.

OBJECTIVE: The Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model (PERSEVERE), a pediatric sepsis risk model, uses biomarkers to estimate baseline mortality risk for pediatric septic shock. It is unknown how PERSEVERE performs within distinct septic shock phenotypes. We tested PERSEVERE in children with septic shock and thrombocytopenia-associated multiple organ failure (TAMOF), and in those without new onset thrombocytopenia but with multiple organ failure (MOF). DESIGN: PERSEVERE-based mortality risk was generated for each study subject (n = 660). A priori, we determined that if PERSEVERE did not perform well in both the TAMOF and the MOF cohorts, we would revise PERSEVERE to incorporate admission platelet counts. SETTING: Multiple PICUs in the United States. INTERVENTIONS: Standard care. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: PERSEVERE performed well in the TAMOF cohort (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves [AUC], 0.84 [95% CI, 0.77-0.90]), but less well in the MOF cohort (AUC, 0.71 [0.61-0.80]). PERSEVERE was revised using 424 subjects previously reported in the derivation phase. PERSEVERE-II had an AUC of 0.89 (0.85-0.93) and performed equally well across TAMOF and MOF cohorts. PERSEVERE-II performed well when tested in 236 newly enrolled subjects. Sample size calculations for a clinical trial testing the efficacy of plasma exchange for children with septic shock and TAMOF indicated PERSEVERE-II-based stratification could substantially reduce the number of patients necessary, when compared with no stratification. CONCLUSIONS: Testing PERSEVERE in the context of septic shock phenotypes prompted a revision incorporating platelet count. PERSEVERE-II performs well upon testing, independent of TAMOF or MOF status. PERSEVERE-II could potentially serve as a prognostic enrichment tool.

Developing a clinically feasible personalized medicine approach to pediatric septic shock.

RATIONALE: Using microarray data, we previously identified gene expression-based subclasses of septic shock with important phenotypic differences. The subclass-defining genes correspond to adaptive immunity and glucocorticoid receptor signaling. Identifying the subclasses in real time has theranostic implications, given the potential for immune-enhancing therapies and controversies surrounding adjunctive corticosteroids for septic shock. OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a real-time subclassification method for septic shock. METHODS: Gene expression data for the 100 subclass-defining genes were generated using a multiplex messenger RNA quantification platform (NanoString nCounter) and visualized using gene expression mosaics. Study subjects (n = 168) were allocated to the subclasses using computer-assisted image analysis and microarray-based reference mosaics. A gene expression score was calculated to reduce the gene expression patterns to a single metric. The method was tested prospectively in a separate cohort (n = 132). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The NanoString-based data reproduced two septic shock subclasses. As previously, one subclass had decreased expression of the subclass-defining genes. The gene expression score identified this subclass with an area under the curve of 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI95] = 0.96-0.99). Prospective testing of the subclassification method corroborated these findings. Allocation to this subclass was independently associated with mortality (odds ratio = 2.7; CI95 = 1.2-6.0; P = 0.016), and adjunctive corticosteroids prescribed at physician discretion were independently associated with mortality in this subclass (odds ratio = 4.1; CI95 = 1.4-12.0; P = 0.011). CONCLUSIONS: We developed and tested a gene expression-based classification method for pediatric septic shock that meets the time constraints of the critical care environment, and can potentially inform therapeutic decisions.

A Multibiomarker-Based Model for Estimating the Risk of Septic Acute Kidney Injury.

OBJECTIVE: The development of acute kidney injury in patients with sepsis is associated with worse outcomes. Identifying those at risk for septic acute kidney injury could help to inform clinical decision making. We derived and tested a multibiomarker-based model to estimate the risk of septic acute kidney injury in children with septic shock. DESIGN: Candidate serum protein septic acute kidney injury biomarkers were identified from previous transcriptomic studies. Model derivation involved measuring these biomarkers in serum samples from 241 subjects with septic shock obtained during the first 24 hours of admission and then using a Classification and Regression Tree approach to estimate the probability of septic acute kidney injury 3 days after the onset of septic shock, defined as at least two-fold increase from baseline serum creatinine. The model was then tested in a separate cohort of 200 subjects. SETTING: Multiple PICUs in the United States. INTERVENTIONS: None other than standard care. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The decision tree included a first-level decision node based on day 1 septic acute kidney injury status and five subsequent biomarker-based decision nodes. The area under the curve for the tree was 0.95 (CI95, 0.91-0.99), with a sensitivity of 93% and a specificity of 88%. The tree was superior to day 1 septic acute kidney injury status alone for estimating day 3 septic acute kidney injury risk. In the test cohort, the tree had an area under the curve of 0.83 (0.72-0.95), with a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 77% and was also superior to day 1 septic acute kidney injury status alone for estimating day 3 septic acute kidney injury risk. CONCLUSIONS: We have derived and tested a model to estimate the risk of septic acute kidney injury on day 3 of septic shock using a novel panel of biomarkers. The model had very good performance in a test cohort and has test characteristics supporting clinical utility and further prospective evaluation.

Post-ICU admission fluid balance and pediatric septic shock outcomes: a risk-stratified analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Observed associations between fluid balance and septic shock outcomes are likely confounded by initial mortality risk. We conducted a risk-stratified analysis of the association between post-ICU admission fluid balance and pediatric septic shock outcomes. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of an ongoing multicenter pediatric septic shock clinical and biological database. SETTING: Seventeen PICUs in the United States. PATIENTS: Three hundred and seventeen children with septic shock. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We stratified subjects into three mortality risk categories (low, intermediate, and high) using a validated biomarker-based stratification tool. Within each category, we assessed three fluid balance variables: total fluid intake/kg/d during the first 24 hours, percent positive fluid balance during the first 24 hours, and cumulative percent positive fluid balance up to 7 days. We used logistic regression to estimate the effect of fluid balance on the odds of 28-day mortality, and on complicated course, which we defined as either death within 28 days or persistence of two or more organ failures at 7 days. There were 40 deaths, and 91 subjects had a complicated course. Increased cumulative percent positive fluid balance was associated with mortality in the low-risk cohort (n = 204; odds ratio, 1.035; 95% CI, 1.004-1.066) but not in the intermediate- and high-risk cohorts. No other associations with mortality were observed. Fluid intake, percent positive fluid balance in the first 24 hours, and cumulative percent positive fluid balance were all associated with increased odds of a complicated course in the low-risk cohort but not in the intermediate- and high-risk cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: When stratified for mortality risk, increased fluid intake and positive fluid balance after ICU admission are associated with worse outcomes in pediatric septic shock patients with a low initial mortality risk but not in patients at moderate or high mortality risk.