Obesity during the COVID-19 pandemic: both cause of high risk and potential effect of lockdown? A population-based electronic health record study.

OBJECTIVES: Obesity is a modifiable risk factor for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related mortality. We estimated excess mortality in obesity, both 'direct', through infection, and 'indirect', through changes in health care, and also due to potential increasing obesity during lockdown. STUDY DESIGN: The study design of this study is a retrospective cohort study and causal inference methods. METHODS: In population-based electronic health records for 1,958,638 individuals in England, we estimated 1-year mortality risk ('direct' and 'indirect' effects) for obese individuals, incorporating (i) pre-COVID-19 risk by age, sex and comorbidities, (ii) population infection rate and (iii) relative impact on mortality (relative risk [RR]: 1.2, 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0). Using causal inference models, we estimated impact of change in body mass index (BMI) and physical activity during 3-month lockdown on 1-year incidence for high-risk conditions (cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and chronic kidney disease), accounting for confounders. RESULTS: For severely obese individuals (3.5% at baseline), at 10% population infection rate, we estimated direct impact of 240 and 479 excess deaths in England at RR 1.5 and 2.0, respectively, and indirect effect of 383-767 excess deaths, assuming 40% and 80% will be affected at RR = 1.2. Owing to BMI change during the lockdown, we estimated that 97,755 (5.4%: normal weight to overweight, 5.0%: overweight to obese and 1.3%: obese to severely obese) to 434,104 individuals (15%: normal weight to overweight, 15%: overweight to obese and 6%: obese to severely obese) would be at higher risk for COVID-19 over one year. CONCLUSIONS: Prevention of obesity and promotion of physical activity are at least as important as physical isolation of severely obese individuals during the pandemic.

Early graft loss after kidney transplantation: risk factors and consequences.

Early graft loss (EGL) after kidney transplantation is a catastrophic outcome that is assumed to be more likely after the use of kidneys from suboptimal donors. We therefore examined its incidence, risk factors and consequences in our center in relation to different donor types. Of 801 recipients who received a kidney-only transplant from deceased donors, 50 (6.2%) suffered EGL within 30 days of transplantation. Significant risks factors for EGL were donation after circulatory death (DCD) (odds ratio [OR] 2.88; p = 0.006), expanded criteria donor (ECD) transplantation (OR 4.22; p = 0.010), donor age (OR 1.03; p = 0.044) and recipient past history of thrombosis (OR 4.91; p = 0.001). Recipients with EGL had 12.28 times increased risk of death within the first year, but long-term survival was worse for patients remaining on the waiting list. In comparison with patients on the waiting list but not transplanted, and with all patients on the waiting list, the risk of death after EGL decreased to baseline 4 and 23 months after transplantation, respectively. Our findings suggest that DCD and ECD transplantation are significant risk factors for EGL, which is a major risk factor for recipient death. However, long-term mortality is even greater for those remaining on the waiting list.

Prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy in stable coronary disease: comparative observational study of benefits and harms in unselected versus trial populations.

OBJECTIVE:  To estimate the potential magnitude in unselected patients of the benefits and harms of prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy after acute myocardial infarction seen in selected patients with high risk characteristics in trials. DESIGN:  Observational population based cohort study. SETTING:  PEGASUS-TIMI-54 trial population and CALIBER (ClinicAl research using LInked Bespoke studies and Electronic health Records). PARTICIPANTS:  7238 patients who survived a year or more after acute myocardial infarction. INTERVENTIONS:  Prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy after acute myocardial infarction. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:  Recurrent acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or fatal cardiovascular disease. Fatal, severe, or intracranial bleeding. RESULTS:  1676/7238 (23.1%) patients met trial inclusion and exclusion criteria ("target" population). Compared with the placebo arm in the trial population, in the target population the median age was 12 years higher, there were more women (48.6% v 24.3%), and there was a substantially higher cumulative three year risk of both the primary (benefit) trial endpoint of recurrent acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or fatal cardiovascular disease (18.8% (95% confidence interval 16.3% to 21.8%) v 9.04%) and the primary (harm) endpoint of fatal, severe, or intracranial bleeding (3.0% (2.0% to 4.4%) v 1.26% (TIMI major bleeding)). Application of intention to treat relative risks from the trial (ticagrelor 60 mg daily arm) to CALIBER's target population showed an estimated 101 (95% confidence interval 87 to 117) ischaemic events prevented per 10 000 treated per year and an estimated 75 (50 to 110) excess fatal, severe, or intracranial bleeds caused per 10 000 patients treated per year. Generalisation from CALIBER's target subgroup to all 7238 real world patients who were stable at least one year after acute myocardial infarction showed similar three year risks of ischaemic events (17.2%, 16.0% to 18.5%), with an estimated 92 (86 to 99) events prevented per 10 000 patients treated per year, and similar three year risks of bleeding events (2.3%, 1.8% to 2.9%), with an estimated 58 (45 to 73) events caused per 10 000 patients treated per year. CONCLUSIONS:  This novel use of primary-secondary care linked electronic health records allows characterisation of "healthy trial participant" effects and confirms the potential absolute benefits and harms of dual antiplatelet therapy in representative patients a year or more after acute myocardial infarction.