The Accuracy of Physicians' Clinical Predictions of Survival in Patients With Advanced Cancer.

CONTEXT: Accurate prognoses are needed for patients with advanced cancer. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the accuracy of physicians' clinical predictions of survival (CPS) and assess the relationship between CPS and actual survival (AS) in patients with advanced cancer in palliative care units, hospital palliative care teams, and home palliative care services, as well as those receiving chemotherapy. METHODS: This was a multicenter prospective cohort study conducted in 58 palliative care service centers in Japan. The palliative care physicians evaluated patients on the first day of admission and followed up all patients to their death or six months after enrollment. We evaluated the accuracy of CPS and assessed the relationship between CPS and AS in the four groups. RESULTS: We obtained a total of 2036 patients: 470, 764, 404, and 398 in hospital palliative care teams, palliative care units, home palliative care services, and chemotherapy, respectively. The proportion of accurate CPS (0.67-1.33 times AS) was 35% (95% CI 33-37%) in the total sample and ranged from 32% to 39% in each setting. While the proportion of patients living longer than CPS (pessimistic CPS) was 20% (95% CI 18-22%) in the total sample, ranging from 15% to 23% in each setting, the proportion of patients living shorter than CPS (optimistic CPS) was 45% (95% CI 43-47%) in the total sample, ranging from 43% to 49% in each setting. CONCLUSION: Physicians tend to overestimate when predicting survival in all palliative care patients, including those receiving chemotherapy.

Validation of the Simplified Palliative Prognostic Index Using a Single Item From the Communication Capacity Scale.

CONTEXT: Although the Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) is a reliable and validated tool to predict the survival of terminally ill cancer patients, all clinicians cannot always precisely diagnose delirium. OBJECTIVES: The primary aim of this study was to examine the predictive value of a simplified PPI. In the simplified PPI, a single item from the Communication Capacity Scale was substituted for the delirium item of the original. METHODS: This multicenter prospective cohort study was conducted in Japan from September 2012 through April 2014 and involved 16 palliative care units, 19 hospital-based palliative care teams, and 23 home-based palliative care services. Palliative care physicians recorded clinical variables at the first assessment and followed up patients six months later. RESULTS: A total of 2425 subjects were recruited; 2343 had analyzable data. The C-statistics of the original and simplified PPIs were 0.801 and 0.800 for three week and 0.800 and 0.781 for six-week survival predictions, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity for survival predictions using the simplified PPI were 72.9% and 67.6% (for three week) and 80.3% and 61.8% (for six week), respectively. CONCLUSION: The simplified PPI showed essentially the same predictive value as the original PPI and is an alternative when clinicians have difficulties in diagnosing delirium.