Drought can offset potential water use efficiency of forest ecosystems from rising atmospheric CO2.

Increasing atmospheric CO2 is both leading to climate change and providing a potential fertilisation effect on plant growth. However, southern Australia has also experienced a significant decline in rainfall over the last 30 years, resulting in increased vegetative water stress. To better understand the dynamics and responses of Australian forest ecosystems to drought and elevated CO2, the magnitude and trend in water use efficiency (WUE) of forests, and their response to drought and elevated CO2 from 1982 to 2014 were analysed, using the best available model estimates constrained by observed fluxes from simulations with fixed and time-varying CO2. The ratio of gross primary productivity (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET) (WUEe) was used to identify the ecosystem scale WUE, while the ratio of GPP to transpiration (Tr) (WUEc) was used as a measure of canopy scale WUE. WUE increased significantly in northern Australia (p < 0.001) for woody savannas (WSA), whereas there was a slight decline in the WUE of evergreen broadleaf forests (EBF) in the southeast and southwest of Australia. The lag of WUEc to drought was consistent and relatively short and stable between biomes (≤3 months), but notably varied for WUEe, with a long time-lag (mean of 10 months). The dissimilar responses of WUEe and WUEc to climate change for different geographical areas result from the different proportion of Tr in ET. CO2 fertilization and a wetter climate enhanced WUE in northern Australia, whereas drought offset the CO2 fertilization effect in southern Australia.

Satellite-derived estimates of forest leaf area index in southwest Western Australia are not tightly coupled to interannual variations in rainfall: implications for groundwater decline in a drying climate.

There is increasing concern that widespread forest decline could occur in regions of the world where droughts are predicted to increase in frequency and severity as a result of climate change. The average annual leaf area index (LAI) is an indicator of canopy cover and the difference between the annual maximum and minimum LAI is an indicator of annual leaf turnover. In this study, we analyzed satellite-derived estimates of monthly LAI across forested coastal catchments of southwest Western Australia over a 12 year period (2000-2011) that included the driest year on record for the last 60 years. We observed that over the 12 year study period, the spatial pattern of average annual satellite-derived LAI values was linearly related to mean annual rainfall. However, interannual changes to LAI in response to changes in annual rainfall were far less than expected from the long-term LAI-rainfall trend. This buffered response was investigated using a physiological growth model and attributed to availability of deep soil moisture and/or groundwater storage. The maintenance of high LAIs may be linked to a long-term decline in areal average underground water storage and diminished summer flows, with an emerging trend toward more ephemeral flow regimes.