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1.
J Radiol Prot ; 44(4)2024 Oct 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39363610

ABSTRACT

On 25-26 March 2023, the U.S. National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) held its 2024 annual meeting in Bethesda, Maryland, USA. The NCRP dates from 1929, and this meeting celebrated the 60th anniversary of receiving a U.S. Congressional Charter. For this annual meeting the NCRP felt it was essential to provide a briefing about advanced and small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs). The Journal of Radiological Protection is delighted to publish the following synopsis of material presented at the U.S. NCRP meeting. This synopsis is divided into five sections. The first section provides an overview of the whole meeting together with summaries of two context setting overview papers. The following four sessions of this synopsis are specific to advanced and small modular nuclear power reactors. The meeting also included keynote presentations by three of NCRP annual award recipients. The meeting topical areas were Technology Overview and Critical Issues. The individual papers laid the groundwork to understanding reactor technologies, terminology, and the fundamental concepts and processes for electrical generation. The perspectives of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and states, through the Conference of Radiation Control Program Directors were provided. The papers included a discussion of diverse topics including potential emergency preparedness considerations, radiological survey requirements, an evaluation of the future of nuclear power, the economics of reactors (both large and small), and the critical issues identified by the recent National Academies of Sciences' study on advanced reactors. The summary papers were developed to briefly document the major points and concepts presented during the oral papers presented at the 2024 NCRP Annual Meeting. The meeting heralded the dawn of a new era for commercial nuclear power.


Subject(s)
Nuclear Reactors , Radiation Protection , United States , Humans , Congresses as Topic
2.
Nurs Ethics ; : 9697330241238347, 2024 Mar 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38476080

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Unit-based critical care nurse leaders (UBCCNL) play a role in exemplifying ethical leadership, addressing moral distress, and mitigating contributing factors to moral distress on their units. Despite several studies examining the experience of moral distress by bedside nurses, knowledge is limited regarding the UBCCNL's experience. RESEARCH AIM: The aim of this study was to gain a deeper understanding of the lived experiences of Alabama UBCCNLs regarding how they experience, cope with, and address moral distress. RESEARCH DESIGN: A qualitative descriptive design and inductive thematic analysis guided the investigation. A screening and demographics questionnaire and a semi-structured interview protocol were the tools of data collection. PARTICIPANT AND RESEARCH CONTEXT: Data were collected from 10 UBCCNLs from seven hospitals across the state of Alabama from February to July 2023. ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS: This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. Informed consent was obtained from participants prior to data collection. FINDINGS: UBCCNLs experience moral distress frequently due to a variety of systemic and organizational barriers. Feelings of powerlessness tended to precipitate moral distress among UBCCNLs. Despite moral distress resulting in increased advocacy and empathy, UBCCNLs may experience a variety of negative responses resulting from moral distress. UBCCNLs may utilize internal and external mechanisms to cope with and address moral distress. CONCLUSIONS: The UBCCNL's experience of moral distress is not dissimilar from bedside staff; albeit, moral distress does occur as a result of the responsibilities of leadership and the associated systemic barriers that UBCCNLs are privier to. When organizations allocate resources for addressing moral distress, they should be convenient to leaders and staff. The UBCCNL perspective should be considered in the development of future moral distress measurement tools and interventions. Future research exploring the relationship between empathy and moral distress among nurse leaders is needed.

3.
Nurs Adm Q ; 48(4): 361-366, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39213410

ABSTRACT

Nurses are uniquely positioned to significantly impact organizational and system improvement through improving quality and reducing costs. Using an evidenced based tool to identify costs and the financial benefit involved in any quality improvement project is invaluable in developing and evaluating proposals and allocation of resources to support the organization's financial health and viability. The return on investment analysis is an essential accounting tool that will provide nurse leaders with critical information quantifying costs and benefits of both financial and nonfinancial metrics to identify the feasibility, efficacy, risk or efficiency of a proposed project.


Subject(s)
Cost-Benefit Analysis , Humans , Cost-Benefit Analysis/methods , Investments/trends , Quality Improvement , Nurse Administrators/trends , Organizational Case Studies , Leadership
4.
Nurs Crit Care ; 29(4): 835-838, 2024 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38400568

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Moral distress (MD) occurs when clinicians are constrained from taking what they believe to be ethically appropriate actions. When unattended, MD may result in moral injury and/or suffering. Literature surrounding how unit-based critical care nurse leaders address MD in practice is limited. AIM: The aim of this study was to explore how ICU nurse leaders recognize and address MD among their staff. STUDY DESIGN: Qualitative descriptive with inductive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Five ICU nurse leaders participated in a one-time individual interview. Interview results suggest that (1) ICU nurse leaders can recognize and address MD among their staff and (2) nurse leaders experience MD themselves, which may be exacerbated by their leadership role and responsibilities. CONCLUSIONS: Further research is needed to develop interventions aimed at addressing MD among nurse leaders and equipping nurse leaders with the skills to identify and address MD within their staff and themselves. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: MD is an unavoidable phenomenon ICU nurse leaders are challenged with addressing in their day-to-day practice. As leaders, recognizing and addressing MD is a necessary task relating to mitigating burnout and turnover and addressing well-being among staff within the ICU.


Subject(s)
Burnout, Professional , Critical Care Nursing , Leadership , Nurse Administrators , Qualitative Research , Humans , Female , Burnout, Professional/psychology , Burnout, Professional/prevention & control , Nurse Administrators/psychology , Male , Adult , Interviews as Topic , Morals , Intensive Care Units , Nursing Staff, Hospital/psychology , Middle Aged
5.
Clin Infect Dis ; 77(2): 298-302, 2023 07 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36916132

ABSTRACT

We assessed mpox virus prevalence in blood, pharyngeal, and rectal specimens among persons without characteristic rash presenting for JYNNEOS vaccine. Our data indicate that the utility of risk-based screening for mpox in persons without skin lesions or rash via pharyngeal swabs, rectal swabs, and/or blood is likely limited.


Subject(s)
Exanthema , Mpox (monkeypox) , Virus Diseases , Humans , District of Columbia , Exanthema/etiology , Vaccines, Attenuated
6.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 29(12): 2426-2432, 2023 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37856204

ABSTRACT

During the 2022 multinational outbreak of monkeypox virus (MPXV) infection, the antiviral drug tecovirimat (TPOXX; SIGA Technologies, Inc., https://www.siga.com) was deployed in the United States on a large scale for the first time. The MPXV F13L gene homologue encodes the target of tecovirimat, and single amino acid changes in F13 are known to cause resistance to tecovirimat. Genomic sequencing identified 11 mutations previously reported to cause resistance, along with 13 novel mutations. Resistant phenotype was determined using a viral cytopathic effect assay. We tested 124 isolates from 68 patients; 96 isolates from 46 patients were found to have a resistant phenotype. Most resistant isolates were associated with severely immunocompromised mpox patients on multiple courses of tecovirimat treatment, whereas most isolates identified by routine surveillance of patients not treated with tecovirimat remained sensitive. The frequency of resistant viruses remains relatively low (<1%) compared with the total number of patients treated with tecovirimat.


Subject(s)
Mpox (monkeypox) , Humans , United States/epidemiology , Antiviral Agents/pharmacology , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Benzamides/therapeutic use , Biological Assay , Monkeypox virus
7.
Nurs Ethics ; 30(7-8): 939-959, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37845832

ABSTRACT

Moral distress (MD) is well-documented within the nursing literature and occurs when constraints prevent a correct course of action from being implemented. The measured frequency of MD has increased among nurses over recent years, especially since the COVID-19 Pandemic. MD is less understood among nurse leaders than other populations of nurses. A qualitative systematic review was conducted with the aim to synthesize the experiences of MD among nurse leaders. This review involved a search of three databases (Medline, CINAHL, and APA PsychINFO) which resulted in the retrieval of 303 articles. PRISMA review criteria guided authors during the article review and selection process. Following the review, six articles were identified meeting review criteria and quality was assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) Checklist for qualitative studies. No ethical review was required for this systematic review. The six studies included in this review originated from the United States, Brazil, Turkey, and Iran. Leadership roles ranged from unit-based leadership to executive leadership. Assigned quality scores based upon CASP criteria ranged from 6 to 9 (moderate to high quality). Three analytical themes emerged from the synthesis: (1) moral distress is consuming; (2) constrained by the system; and (3) adapt to overcome. The unique contributors of MD among nurse leaders include the leadership role itself and challenges navigating moral situations as they arise. The nurse leader perspective should be considered in the development of future MD interventions.


Subject(s)
Nursing Care , Pandemics , Humans , Leadership , Qualitative Research , Morals
8.
Nurs Adm Q ; 47(4): 283-288, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37643226

ABSTRACT

Successful organizations depend on strategic thinkers who understand strategic planning and strategic management. These strategic leaders can proactively manage the constant environmental changes to position their organizations for a competitive advantage and avoid acting in a reactive and defensive manner. However, while organizations are often adept at developing extensive strategic plans, implementation of the plan is often poor or without a definitive strategy. This article addresses key strategies for successful implementation of changes to bring about sustainable cultural change in an organization to meet the organization's overall strategic goals, specifically through the use of implementation science.


Subject(s)
Strategic Planning , Humans , Planning Techniques , Organizational Objectives
9.
Nurs Adm Q ; 47(2): 182-194, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36862568

ABSTRACT

Health care is a highly competitive environment where managers must compete for finite resources. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services-directed reimbursement models such as value-based purchasing and pay-for-performance heavily focused on quality improvement and nursing excellence are having a major impact on financial reimbursement for health care services in the United States. As such, nurse leaders must function in a business-focused environment where decisions regarding resource allocation are driven by quantifiable data, the potential return on investment, and the organization's ability to provide quality patient care in an efficient manner. It is imperative for nurse leaders to recognize the financial impact of potential additional revenue streams, as well as avoidable costs. Nurse leaders must also be skilled at translating the return on investment for nursing-centric programs and initiatives, often hidden in anecdotal terms and cost avoidance rather than revenue generation, to ensure appropriate resource allocation and budgetary assumptions. This article uses a case study framed within the business case to review a structured approach to operationalizing nursing-centric programs and highlights key strategies for success.


Subject(s)
Medicare , Reimbursement, Incentive , Aged , Humans , United States , Commerce , Quality Improvement , Quality of Health Care
10.
Nurs Adm Q ; 46(1): 88-95, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34551422

ABSTRACT

A business case plan (BCP) provides a structured framework for evidence-based, transparent business decisions. It is an essential tool that when written well will provide you with the means to translate the cost and benefits of nursing practice proposals, often related in anecdotal terms, into quantifiable, evidence-based terms outlining return on investment and business advantages of investing in nursing initiatives. The BCP should include an analysis of the problem and associated needs, the proposed solutions with options, goals for success, implementation, and evaluation plans, as well as a risk-adjusted cost-benefit analysis. It contains the necessary information to allow decision makers to make well-informed decisions regarding resource allocation. As clinical experts seeking to compete for finite resources in the health care arena, nursing leadership must bridge the language gap between nursing and business finance. This article outlines the required elements of the BCP to provide you with a practical working definition of each element to support your future initiatives in the business of health care improvement.


Subject(s)
Commerce , Leadership , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Humans , Investments , Resource Allocation
11.
Nurs Adm Q ; 46(3): 234-244, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35639531

ABSTRACT

In March 2021, the American Association of Colleges of Nursing (AACN) endorsed and published a report that included a reenvisioned framework for nursing education. This report introduced innovative and bold ideas for transforming nursing education and pedagogy from a concept-based model to a competency-based model of nursing education. This new model of nursing education establishes a core set of expectations and standards of competency-based nursing curricula common to all nursing educational programs moving forward. Before this transformative change can occur, nurse educators must first understand what is expected of them before they can adapt current nursing curricula to meet the future needs of our communities and employers. This article will dissect the Re-envisioned Essentials and provide the reader with new terminology introduced by the Essentials document, as well as the core expectations and standards established by the AACN for future nursing education and curricula. With this new understanding, we will introduce and discuss strategies supporting the transitional process of moving from concept-based educational models to competency-based models using a think-backward approach to change that begins with an alignment of program-level learning outcomes with national standards and working backwards to build assessments.


Subject(s)
Education, Nursing , American Nurses' Association , Curriculum , Faculty, Nursing , Humans , Models, Educational , United States
13.
Nurs Adm Q ; 45(4): 353-359, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34469393

ABSTRACT

An organization's financial statements reflect their financial well-being and determine their ability to meet the health care needs of the citizens in their community. It is imperative that nursing leadership recognize the key components of an organization's annual consolidated financial statements, the balance sheet and income statement, and know how to interpret them to provide efficient, high-quality health care and to be successful in their role as nurse leaders. This article provides exemplars of these key documents with detailed instructions for the interpretation and understanding of the organization's financial statements, which will enable the reader to accurately and adeptly interpret their own organization's financial statements, as well as the statements from other organizations.


Subject(s)
Financial Statements , Organizational Culture , Delivery of Health Care , Humans , Leadership , Quality of Health Care
14.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 26(7): 1399-1408, 2020 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32568051

ABSTRACT

Using questionnaires and serologic testing, we evaluated bat and lyssavirus exposure among persons in an area of Nigeria that celebrates a bat festival. Bats from festival caves underwent serologic testing for phylogroup II lyssaviruses (Lagos bat virus, Shimoni bat virus, Mokola virus). The enrolled households consisted of 2,112 persons, among whom 213 (10%) were reported to have ever had bat contact (having touched a bat, having been bitten by a bat, or having been scratched by a bat) and 52 (2%) to have ever been bitten by a bat. Of 203 participants with bat contact, 3 (1%) had received rabies vaccination. No participant had neutralizing antibodies to phylogroup II lyssaviruses, but >50% of bats had neutralizing antibodies to these lyssaviruses. Even though we found no evidence of phylogroup II lyssavirus exposure among humans, persons interacting with bats in the area could benefit from practicing bat-related health precautions.


Subject(s)
Bites and Stings , Chiroptera , Lyssavirus , Rhabdoviridae Infections , Animals , Antibodies, Neutralizing , Holidays , Humans , Lyssavirus/genetics , Nigeria , Rhabdoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Rhabdoviridae Infections/veterinary
15.
BMC Plant Biol ; 20(1): 253, 2020 Jun 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32493218

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Plant absorption of ultraviolet (UV) radiation can result in multiple deleterious effects to plant tissues. As a result, plants have evolved an array of strategies to protect themselves from UV radiation, particularly in the UV-B range (280-320 nm). A common plant response to UV exposure is investment in phenolic compounds that absorb damaging wavelengths of light. However, the inverse phenomenon - plant reflectance of UV to protect plant tissues - has not previously been explored. In a paired experiment, we expose half of our sample (N = 108) of insect-pollinated plants of the cultivar Zinnia Profusion Series to UV radiation, and protect the other half from all light < 400 nm for 42 days, and measure leaf and flower reflectance using spectroscopy. We compare UV-B reflectance in leaves and flowers at the beginning of the experiment or flowering, and after treatment. RESULTS: We find that plants protected from UV exposure downregulate UV-B reflectance, and that plants exposed to increased levels of UV show trends of increased UV-B reflectance. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that upregulation of UV-B reflecting pigments or structures may be a strategy to protect leaves against highly energetic UV-B radiation.


Subject(s)
Flowers/radiation effects , Plants/radiation effects , Ultraviolet Rays , Asteraceae/radiation effects , Color , Plant Leaves/radiation effects , Plant Physiological Phenomena/radiation effects
16.
J Nurs Adm ; 50(6): 363-368, 2020 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32433116

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The study objective was to determine the impact of specific measures to reduce the length of stay (LOS) in an emergency department (ED) in a critical access hospital (CAH). BACKGROUND: Despite mandates to reduce bottlenecks by increasing throughput, many EDs are not successful. Strategies available to larger hospitals may not be feasible for resource-limited CAHs. METHODS: Interventions were implemented to decrease ED LOS in a rural CAH. Through retrospective chart reviews from time periods both preimplementation and postimplementation, the LOS was determined and compared using 2-sample t tests. RESULTS: Significant decreases were found between the groups in mean LOS times, as well as specific time intervals within the overall LOS time for nursing-centric activities and incidence of patients leaving prior to treatment completion. CONCLUSIONS: A significant decrease in LOS resulted from numerous actions taken to improve patient flow. Results may be used to enhance patient flow and decrease LOS in other CAHs, improving quality and access to care.


Subject(s)
Emergency Service, Hospital , Hospitals , Length of Stay/statistics & numerical data , Quality Improvement , Humans , Retrospective Studies , Time Factors
17.
J Infect Dis ; 220(9): 1521-1528, 2019 09 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31374568

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Ebola virus (EBOV) is a highly lethal member of the Filoviridae family associated with human hemorrhagic disease. Despite being a sporadic disease, it caused a large outbreak in 2014-2016 in West Africa and another outbreak recently in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Several vaccine candidates are currently in preclinical and clinical studies but none are stable without cold chain storage. METHODS: We used preservation by vaporization (PBV), a novel processing technology to heat-stabilize FiloRab1 (inactivated rabies-based Ebola vaccine), a candidate Ebola vaccine, and stored the vials at temperatures ranging from 4°C to 50°C for 10 days to 12 months. We immunized Syrian hamsters with the best long-term stable FiloRab1 PBV vaccines and challenged them with rabies virus (RABV). RESULTS: Syrian hamsters immunized with FiloRab1 PBV-processed vaccines stored at temperatures of 4°C and 37°C for 6 months, and at 50°C for 2 weeks, seroconverted against both RABV-G and EBOV-GP. Notably, all of the FiloRab1 PBV vaccines proved to be 100% effective in a RABV challenge model. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully demonstrated that the FiloRab1 PBV vaccines are stable and efficacious for up to 6 months when stored at temperatures ranging from 4°C to 37°C and for up to 2 weeks at 50°C.


Subject(s)
Drug Stability , Ebola Vaccines/immunology , Ebola Vaccines/radiation effects , Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/prevention & control , Rabies Vaccines/immunology , Rabies Vaccines/radiation effects , Rabies/prevention & control , Animals , Ebola Vaccines/administration & dosage , Ebola Vaccines/genetics , Female , Hot Temperature , Mesocricetus , Rabies Vaccines/administration & dosage , Rabies Vaccines/genetics , Temperature , Treatment Outcome , Vaccines, Inactivated/administration & dosage , Vaccines, Inactivated/genetics , Vaccines, Inactivated/immunology , Vaccines, Inactivated/radiation effects , Vaccines, Synthetic/administration & dosage , Vaccines, Synthetic/genetics , Vaccines, Synthetic/immunology , Vaccines, Synthetic/radiation effects , Volatilization
18.
Gut ; 68(4): 672-683, 2019 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29615487

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To systematically identify and validate published colorectal cancer risk prediction models that do not require invasive testing in two large population-based prospective cohorts. DESIGN: Models were identified through an update of a published systematic review and validated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and the UK Biobank. The performance of the models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer within 5 or 10 years after study enrolment was assessed by discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (plots of observed vs predicted probability). RESULTS: The systematic review and its update identified 16 models from 8 publications (8 colorectal, 5 colon and 3 rectal). The number of participants included in each model validation ranged from 41 587 to 396 515, and the number of cases ranged from 115 to 1781. Eligible and ineligible participants across the models were largely comparable. Calibration of the models, where assessable, was very good and further improved by recalibration. The C-statistics of the models were largely similar between validation cohorts with the highest values achieved being 0.70 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.72) in the UK Biobank and 0.71 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.74) in EPIC. CONCLUSION: Several of these non-invasive models exhibited good calibration and discrimination within both external validation populations and are therefore potentially suitable candidates for the facilitation of risk stratification in population-based colorectal screening programmes. Future work should both evaluate this potential, through modelling and impact studies, and ascertain if further enhancement in their performance can be obtained.


Subject(s)
Asymptomatic Diseases , Colorectal Neoplasms/epidemiology , Predictive Value of Tests , Biological Specimen Banks , Early Detection of Cancer , Europe/epidemiology , Humans , Prognosis , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors , United Kingdom/epidemiology
19.
J Healthc Manag ; 64(3): 186-196, 2019.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31999269

ABSTRACT

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Hospital readmissions have long served as an indicator of patient recovery and the effectiveness of care. The present study examines the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program's (HRRP's) impact on hospital readmissions from skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) and the characteristics of SNFs that were predictive of lower readmission rates. Adjusted 30-day readmission rates among 14,666 SNFs in the United States from 2011 through 2015 were examined using linear regression with generalized estimating equations to determine the relationship of the HRRP mandate to readmission rates from SNFs. Findings indicate a significant downward trend in adjusted 30-day readmission rates over time, decreasing 1.4% from 2011 to 2015. Furthermore, lower readmission rates were associated with SNF characteristics including location in a hospital facility, rural designation, higher registered nurse-to-nurse ratios, and not-for-profit status. We found a substantial decrease in SNF-related readmissions associated with HRRP, which may limit the impact of the Protecting Access to Medicare Act. Policy-makers may consider these systemic and structural differences before drafting future legislation targeting hospital readmission from SNFs. In addition, acute care facility operators who do not have an SNF may consider adding one to their facility and/or consider partnering with SNFs to ensure that high-quality programs in these SNFs are in place to reduce 30-day readmissions to the acute care facilities.


Subject(s)
Hospitalization , Patient Readmission/trends , Skilled Nursing Facilities , Humans , Quality Improvement , Regression Analysis , United States
20.
Breast Cancer Res ; 20(1): 147, 2018 12 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30509329

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Few published breast cancer (BC) risk prediction models consider the heterogeneity of predictor variables between estrogen-receptor positive (ER+) and negative (ER-) tumors. Using data from two large cohorts, we examined whether modeling this heterogeneity could improve prediction. METHODS: We built two models, for ER+ (ModelER+) and ER- tumors (ModelER-), respectively, in 281,330 women (51% postmenopausal at recruitment) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (the agreement between predicted and observed tumor risks) were assessed both internally and externally in 82,319 postmenopausal women from the Women's Health Initiative study. We performed decision curve analysis to compare ModelER+ and the Gail model (ModelGail) regarding their applicability in risk assessment for chemoprevention. RESULTS: Parity, number of full-term pregnancies, age at first full-term pregnancy and body height were only associated with ER+ tumors. Menopausal status, age at menarche and at menopause, hormone replacement therapy, postmenopausal body mass index, and alcohol intake were homogeneously associated with ER+ and ER- tumors. Internal validation yielded a C-statistic of 0.64 for ModelER+ and 0.59 for ModelER-. External validation reduced the C-statistic of ModelER+ (0.59) and ModelGail (0.57). In external evaluation of calibration, ModelER+ outperformed the ModelGail: the former led to a 9% overestimation of the risk of ER+ tumors, while the latter yielded a 22% underestimation of the overall BC risk. Compared with the treat-all strategy, ModelER+ produced equal or higher net benefits irrespective of the benefit-to-harm ratio of chemoprevention, while ModelGail did not produce higher net benefits unless the benefit-to-harm ratio was below 50. The clinical applicability, i.e. the area defined by the net benefit curve and the treat-all and treat-none strategies, was 12.7 × 10- 6 for ModelER+ and 3.0 × 10- 6 for ModelGail. CONCLUSIONS: Modeling heterogeneous epidemiological risk factors might yield little improvement in BC risk prediction. Nevertheless, a model specifically predictive of ER+ tumor risk could be more applicable than an omnibus model in risk assessment for chemoprevention.


Subject(s)
Antineoplastic Agents/therapeutic use , Breast Neoplasms/diagnosis , Models, Biological , Receptors, Estrogen/metabolism , Breast Neoplasms/epidemiology , Breast Neoplasms/pathology , Breast Neoplasms/prevention & control , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Incidence , Middle Aged , Prognosis , Prospective Studies , Risk Assessment/methods , Risk Factors
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