Analysis of the current status of TB transmission in China based on an age heterogeneity model.

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease transmitted through the respiratory system. China is one of the countries with a high burden of TB. Since 2004, an average of more than 800,000 cases of active TB has been reported each year in China. Analyzing the case data from 2004 to 2018, we found significant differences in TB incidence by age group. A model of TB is put forward to explore the effect of age heterogeneity on TB transmission. The nonlinear least squares method is used to obtain the key parameters in the model, and the basic reproduction number Rv = 0.8017 is calculated and the sensitivity analysis of Rv to the parameters is given. The simulation results show that reducing the number of new infections in the elderly population and increasing the recovery rate of elderly patients with the disease could significantly reduce the transmission of TB. Furthermore, the feasibility of achieving the goals of the World Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy in China is assessed, and we obtained that with existing TB control measures it will take another 30 years for China to reach the WHO goal to reduce 90% of the number of new cases by the year 2049. However, in theory it is feasible to reach the WHO strategic goal of ending TB by 2035 if the group contact rate in the elderly population can be reduced, though it is difficult to reduce the contact rate.

A Mathematical Model to Study the Potential Hepatitis B Virus Infections and Effects of Vaccination Strategies in China.

MOTIVATIONS: Hepatitis B is a potentially life-threatening infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV). Approximately 390,000 people in China die from HBV-related diseases each year. Around 86 million individuals suffer from infections of the hepatitis B virus, accounting for about 6% of the total population in the region. There are approximately 30 million chronic infections. From 2002 to 2007, China's government took part in "The Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI)" initiative, which helped reduce cases of chronic HBV infections among children. However, incidences of hepatitis B remain persistently high in China. Accurately estimating the number of potential HBV infections is crucial for preventing and controlling the transmission of the hepatitis B virus. Up until now, there were no studies of potentially infectious hepatitis B virus infections. METHODS: this study was based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China from 2003 to 2021; a dynamic model was built, which included a compartment for potentially infectious hepatitis B virus infections. The parameters in the model were fitted using a combination of nonlinear least-squares and genetic algorithm methods. RESULTS: the calculated reproduction number for hepatitis B virus transmission within the population is Rc = 1.741. Considering the existing vaccine inefficiency rate of 0.1, the model estimates there are 449,535 (95%CI [415,651, 483,420]) potentially infectious hepatitis B virus infections, constituting 30.49% of total hepatitis B cases. Date fitting using MATLAB reveals that increasing the rate of hepatitis B vaccinations can effectively reduce the number of infections. CONCLUSIONS: the results reveal that the number of potential infectious hepatitis B virus infections is so high that the number of hepatitis B patients persistently rises in China. To better control the transmission of the hepatitis B virus, an optional prevention and control strategy is needed to increase the vaccination of different age groups, and it is necessary to help the public correctly understand the transmission of hepatitis B and ensure adequate protection.

A study on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 considering the impact of asymptomatic infection.

The COVID-19 epidemic has been spreading around the world for nearly three years, and asymptomatic infections have exacerbated the spread of the epidemic. To analyse and evaluate the role of asymptomatic infections in the spread of the epidemic, we establish an improved COVID-19 infectious disease dynamics model. We fit the epidemic data in the four time periods corresponding to the selected 614G, Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants and obtain the proportion of asymptomatic persons among the infected persons gradually increased and with the increase of the detection ratio, the cumulative number of cases has dropped significantly, but the decline in the proportion of asymptomatic infections is not obvious. Therefore, in view of the hidden transmission of asymptomatic infections, the cooperation between various epidemic prevention and control policies is required to effectively curb the spread of the epidemic.

A kinetic model considering the decline of antibody level and simulation about vaccination effect of COVID-19.

We build a model that consider the falling antibody levels and vaccination to assess the impact of falling antibody levels and vaccination on the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak, and simulate the influence of vaccination rates and failure rates on the number of daily new cases in England. We get that the lower the vaccine failure rate, the fewer new cases. Over time, vaccines with low failure rates are more effective in reducing the number of cases than vaccines with high failure rates and the higher the vaccine efficiency and vaccination rate, the lower the epidemic peak. The peak arrival time is related to a boundary value. When the failure rate is less than this boundary value, the peak time will advance with the decrease of failure rate; when the failure rate is greater than this boundary value, the peak time is delayed with the decrease of failure rate. On the basis of improving the effectiveness of vaccines, increasing the vaccination rate has practical significance for controlling the spread of the epidemic.

Estimating New Cases Among Athletes During the Winter Olympics Based on a Dynamic Model - Beijing, China, February 2022.

Introduction: Since first appearing in late 2021, the Omicron variant has spread rapidly around the world. Nevertheless, the XXIV Winter Olympic Games (WOG) were held in Beijing in February 2022, which undoubtedly posed a huge challenge to domestic epidemic prevention and control. Methods: To analyze and evaluate the spread of the epidemic within the closed-loop management of the Beijing 2022 WOG, an improved dynamics model was established. Using the known dynamics parameters, the new daily cases and final members of quarantined people were predicted, and the influence of different factors on the change of the number of quarantined people was analyzed. Results: When the proportion of exposed persons being detected and the degree of admixture between the two populations varied between 0.5 and 0.9, there was little change in the daily predicted number of new cases and the final number of quarantined patients. As the initial value of the exposed among inbound personnel increased, the final size of quarantined patients increased proportionally. Discussion: From the analysis results, detecting potential virus carriers at the entry stage is the most effective way to control the spread of the epidemic within the closed-loop management of the Beijing 2022 WOG.

Simulation of a mathematical model of the role of the TFPI in the extrinsic pathway of coagulation.

Blood coagulation is a complex physiological process. With the development of biochemistry and molecular biology, especially the discovery of the tissue factor pathway inhibitor (TFPI) and further research, the researches of tissue factor (TF) and TFPI have been the hot topics now. Based on this result, we provide a new concept of blood coagulation system and provide a dynamic model to describe the role of TFPI of this pathway. Through stability analysis of the equilibrium point and numerical simulations, we obtain some important conclusions. All these results may have great significance for lesions of cardiac vessels and cerebral vessels, haemophilia, DIC, thrombosis formation and malignancy.

Morphologic and biomechanical changes of rat oesophagus in experimental diabetes.

AIM: To study morphologic and biomechanical changes of oesophagus in diabetes rats. METHODS: Diabetes was induced by a single injection of streptozotocin (STZ). The type of diabetes mellitus induced by parenteral STZ administration in rats was insulin-dependent (type I). The samples were excised and studied in vitro using a self-developed biomaterial test machine. RESULTS: The body mass was decreased after 4 d with STZ treatment. The length of esophagus shortened after 4, 7, 14 d. The opening angle increased after 14 d. The shear, longitudinal and circumferential stiffness were obviously raised after 28 d of STZ treatment. CONCLUSION: The changes of passive biomechanical properties reflect intra-structural alteration of tissue to a certain extent. This alteration will lead to some dysfunction of movement. For example, tension of esophageal wall will change due to some obstructive disease.

Biomechanical properties of skin in vitro for different expansion methods.

OBJECTIVE: In plastic surgery, clinicians are interested in replacing conventional expansion by rapid expansion, because the expansion period could be shortened greatly. Also people are concerned that skin properties after rapid expansion might not approach those after conventional expansion. DESIGN: Biomechanical testing of skin for different expansion methods. BACKGROUND: It would be useful to know how much the mechanical properties of skin have been altered during rapid and conventional expansion and during different maintaining times. METHODS: Tensile strength, stress-strain relationship, stress relaxation, and creep were measured by a material testing machine. RESULT: The biomechanical properties of experimental specimens differ significantly from those of their controls immediately after expansion, however, the difference is reduced with time. With the same maintaining period, the biomechanical properties of rapidly expanded skin are similar to conventionally expanded skin. CONCLUSION: Rapid skin expansion did not demonstrate any deleterious effect when compared with the conventional expansion. Extension of the maintaining period can improve the biomechanical properties of expanded skin. Therefore, rapid expansion with an extended maintaining period is acceptable in clinical practice.

Association between hepatic steatosis and entecavir treatment failure in Chinese patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND: The coexistence of HBV infection and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) becomes characteristic of liver disease in China, with unknown bilateral influence. We aimed to investigate the effect of hepatic steatosis, a common hepatocyte change in NAFLD, on antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We carried out a prospective nested case control study in CHB patients receiving Entecavir for initial antiviral therapy, by recording demographic, anthropometric and clinical data at baseline, 24(wk), 48(wk) and 96(wk). Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression were applied to find out independent factors of hepatic steatosis and Entecavir treatment failure. The rates of HBV-DNA clearance, HBeAg seroconversion and ALT normalization were compared between CHB patients with and without steatosis by post hoc analysis. A total of 267 Chinese patients with CHB entered final analysis, with overall percentages of hepatic steatosis and HBeAg positive as 30.5% and 62.4%. Multivariate analysis showed waist circumference, serum TG and uric acid levels were independent factors of hepatic steatosis. The response rates to Entecavir were 54.9%, 63.8%, 74.2% at 24(wk), 48(wk) and 96(wk). Hepatic steatosis was revealed as an independent factor of Entecavir treatment failure by multivariate logistic regression at 24(wk), 48(wk) and 96(wk). In CHB patients with hepatic steatosis, HBV-DNA clearance and HBeAg seroconversion were both lower throughout the follow-up, but only the former reached statistical significance. Besides, ALT normalization was also significantly lower at 24(wk) and 48(wk). CONCLUSION: Hepatic steatosis is significantly associated with Entecavir treatment failure and metabolic factors are independent factors of hepatic steatosis in CHB patients, which called for a specified antiviral strategy in CHB patients with NAFLD.

Hepcidin expression and iron parameters change in Type 2 diabetic patients.

AIM: Iron may contribute to the pathogenesis of Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). The aim of this study was to determine iron regulator hepcidin and iron metabolic parameters in Type 2 DM patients, the relationships among them were evaluated in this specific sub-groups. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study included sixty-four people: 34 cases of diabetes and 30 age-matched controls. Serum hepcidin, IL-6, hsCRP, ferritin, sTfR, EPO as well as other clinical parameters were detected, and the associations between hepcidin levels and iron/inflammatory parameters were analyzed in diabetes and the controls. RESULTS: Serum ferritin and hepcidin levels in diabetic patients were significant higher than the controls (p<0.001 respectively). A positive correlation between hepcidin and ferritin, as well as between ferritin and IL-6 levels was existed in diabetes and the control groups (p<0.001 respectively). CONCLUSION: All of these data demonstrated that the higher hepcidin levels in diabetic patients may be due to those higher ferritin and IL-6 levels, the elevated hepcidin might have adaptive value through down-regulated iron absorb and play an important role in pathogenesis of Type 2 DM.

Biomechanical comparison between conventional and rapid expansion of skin.

This study was designed to investigate the effects of different surgical expansion regimens on the biomechanical features of expanded skin. Two hundred and forty millilitres expanders were implanted on the backs of six adult dogs. Six flaps were designed on the dorsum of each dog. After serial expansion, the expander was left beneath the skin for a certain period of time, which is called the maintaining period. Rapid expansion and conventional expansion with various maintaining periods were compared. The experimental result shows that the area gain of expanded skin surface had no significant difference between the rapid and conventional expansion. Both the tension in vivo and the instant stretch-back ratio increased during the expansion, but fell almost to control values after four weeks' maintaining period. Biomechanical properties in vitro, such as tensile strength, stress-strain, stress-relaxation, and creep were tested by INSTRON material testing machine. Results show that the biomechanical properties of expanded specimens differ significantly from those of their controls immediately after expansion. However, the difference reduces with prolongation of maintaining time. With the same maintaining period, the biomechanical properties of rapidly expanded skin are similar to conventionally expanded skin. We conclude that rapid skin expansion did not demonstrate any deleterious effect when compared with the conventional expansion. Extension of the maintaining period can improve the biomechanical properties of expanded skin and effectively reduce the stretch-back ratio. Therefore, rapid expansion with an extended maintaining period is acceptable in clinical practice.