Association of bone fracture with 30-year body mass index (BMI) trajectories: findings from the Framingham Heart Study : Bone fracture and 30-year BMI trajectories.

A knowledge gap exists in associating later life's osteoporotic fracture and middle adulthood's BMI trajectories. We observed an association showing those transitioning from overweight to normal weight face a higher fracture risk in late adulthood, emphasizing the potential benefits of maintaining a stable BMI to reduce late-life fractures. PURPOSE: Numerous studies on the relationship between obesity and fractures have relied on body mass index (BMI) at a single time point, yielding inconclusive results. This study investigated the association of BMI trajectories over middle adulthood with fracture risk in late adulthood. METHODS: This prospective cohort study analyzed 1772 qualified participants from the Framingham Original Cohort Study, with 292 (16.5%) incident fractures during an average of 17.1-year follow-up. We constructed BMI trajectories of age 35-64 years based on latent class mixed modeling and explored their association with the risk of fracture after 65 years using the Cox regression. RESULTS: The result showed that compared to the BMI trajectory Group 4 (normal to slightly overweight; see "Methods" for detailed description), Group 1 (overweight declined to normal weight) had a higher all-fracture risk after age 65 (hazard ratio [HR], 2.22, 95% CI, 1.13-4.39). The secondary analysis focusing on lower extremity fractures (pelvis, hip, leg, and foot) showed a similar association pattern. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggested that people whose BMI slightly increased from normal weight to low-level overweight during 30 years of middle adulthood confer a significantly lower risk of fracture in later life than those whose BMI declined from overweight to normal weight. This result implies the potentially beneficial effects of avoiding weight loss to normal weight during middle adulthood for overweight persons, with reduced fracture risk in late life.

[A prospective cohort study of association between early childhood body mass index trajectories and the risk of overweight].

OBJECTIVE: To compare the association between body mass index (BMI) trajectories determined by different methods and the risk of overweight in early childhood in a prospective cohort study, and to identify children with higher risk of obesity during critical growth windows of early childhood. METHODS: A total of 1 330 children from Peking University Birth Cohort in Tongzhou (PKUBC-T) were included in this study. The children were followed up at birth, 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24 months and 3 years of age to obtain their height/length and weight data, and calculate BMI Z-score. Latent class growth mixture modeling (GMM) and longitudinal data-based k-means clustering algorithm (KML) were used to determine the grouping of early childhood BMI trajectories from birth to 24 mouths. Linear regression was used to compare the association between early childhood BMI trajectories determined by different methods and BMI Z-score at 3 years of age. The predictive performance of early childhood BMI trajectories determined by different methods in predicting the risk of overweight (BMI Z-score > 1) at 3 years was compared using the average area under the curve (AUC) of 5-fold cross-validation in Logistic regression models. RESULTS: In the study population included in this research, the three-category trajectories determined using GMM were classified as low, medium, and high, accounting for 39.7%, 54.1%, and 6.2% of the participants, respectively. The two-category trajectories determined using the KML method were classified as low and high, representing 50. 3% and 49. 7% of the participants, respectively. The three-category trajectories determined using the KML method were classified as low, medium, and high, accounting for 31.1%, 47.4%, and 21.5% of the participants, respectively. There were certain differences in the growth patterns reflected by the early childhood BMI trajectories determined using different methods. Linear regression analysis found that after adjusting for maternal ethnicity, educational level, delivery mode, parity, maternal age at delivery, gestational week at delivery, children' s gender, and breastfeeding at 1 month of age, the association between the high trajectory group in the three-category trajectories determined by the KML method (manifested by a slightly higher BMI at birth, followed by rapid growth during infancy and a stable-high BMI until 24 months) and BMI Z-scores at 3 years was the strongest. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the three-category trajectory grouping determined by the KML method had the best predictive performance for the risk of overweight at 3 years. The results were basically consistent after additional adjustment for the high bound score of the child' s diet balanced index, average daily physical activity time, and screen time. CONCLUSION: This study used different methods to identify early childhood BMI trajectories with varying characteristics, and found that the high trajectory group determined by the KML method was better able to identify children with a higher risk of overweight in early childhood. This provides scientific evidence for selecting appropriate methods to define early childhood BMI trajectories.

BMI trajectories in late middle age, genetic risk, and the incident diabetes in older adults: evidence from a 26-year longitudinal study.

This study investigated the association between BMI trajectories in late middle age and incident diabetes in later years. A total of 11,441 participants aged 50-60 years from the Health and Retirement Study with at least two self-reported BMI records were included. Individual BMI trajectories representing average BMI changes per year were generated using multilevel modeling. Adjusted risk ratios (ARRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated. Associations between BMI trajectories and diabetes risk in participants with different genetic risks were estimated for 5720 participants of European ancestry. BMI trajectories were significantly associated with diabetes risk in older age (slowly increasing vs. stable: ARR 1.31, 95% CI 1.12-1.54; rapidly increasing vs. stable: ARR 1.5, 95% CI 1.25-1.79). This association was strongest for normal-initial-BMI participants (slowly increasing: ARR 1.34, 95% CI 0.96-1.88; rapidly increasing: ARR 2.06, 95% CI 1.37-3.11). Participants with a higher genetic liability to diabetes and a rapidly increasing BMI trajectory had the highest risk for diabetes (ARR 2.15, 95% CI 1.67-2.76). These findings confirmed that BMI is the leading risk factor for diabetes and that although the normal BMI group has the lowest incidence rate for diabetes, people with normal BMI are most sensitive to changes in BMI.

Trajectories of body mass index from early adulthood to late midlife and incidence of total knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: findings from a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between body mass index (BMI) trajectories from early adulthood to late midlife and risk of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) for osteoarthritis. METHODS: 24,368 participants from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study with weight collected during 1990-1994, 1995-1998, and 2003-2007, recalled weight at age 18-21 years, and height measured during 1990-1994 were included. Incident TKA from 2003 to 2007 to December 2018 was determined by linking cohort records to the National Joint Replacement Registry. RESULTS: Using group-based trajectory modelling, six distinct trajectories (TR) of BMI from early adulthood (age 18-21 years) to late midlife (approximately 62 years) were identified: lower normal to normal BMI (TR1; 19.7% population), normal BMI to borderline overweight (TR2; 36.7%), normal BMI to overweight (TR3; 26.8%), overweight to borderline obese (TR4; 3.5%), normal BMI to class 1 obesity (TR5; 10.1%), overweight to class 2 obesity (TR6; 3.2%). Over 12.4 years, 1,328 (5.4%) had TKA. The hazard ratios for TKA increased in all TR compared to TR1 [from TR2: 2.03 (95% CI 1.64-2.52) to TR6: 8.59 (6.44-11.46)]. 28.4% of TKA could be prevented if individuals followed the trajectory one lower, an average weight reduction of 8-12 kg from early adulthood to late midlife, saving $AUS 373 million/year. Most reduction would occur in TR2 (population attributable fraction 37.9%, 95% CI 26.7-47.3%) and TR3 (26.8%, 20.0-31.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Prevention of weight gain from young adulthood to late midlife in order to reduce overweight/obesity has the potential to significantly reduce the cost and burden of TKA.

Trends in BMI of Indonesian adults between 1993 and 2014: a longitudinal population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the trajectories of BMI in Indonesian adults from 1993 to 2014, investigating different patterns by sex and birth cohort. DESIGN: Longitudinal study: secondary data analysis of the Indonesian Family Life Survey, a large-scale population-based longitudinal study, had their height and weight measured up to five times throughout the 21-year study period (1993-2014). The change in BMI across time was estimated using group-based trajectory models, then differences by sex and birth cohort were investigated using random effect (mixed) models. SETTING: Thirteen out of twenty-seven provinces in Indonesia. PARTICIPANTS: Indonesian adults aged 19 years and older (n 42 537) were included in the analysis. RESULTS: Mean BMI in adults increased between 1993 (21·4 kg/m2) and 2014 (23·5 kg/m2). The group-based trajectory model found three distinct groups with mean BMI increasing more rapidly in the most recent time periods. The first group (56·7 % of participants) had a mean BMI entirely within the normal weight range; the second group (34·7 %) started in the normal weight category and were obese, on average by the end of the study period; and the third group (8·6 %) were always in the obese category, on average. The shape of these three trajectories differed by gender (P < 0·001) and birth cohort (P < 0·001). CONCLUSIONS: The mean BMI among Indonesian adults has increased between 1993 and 2014, driven by those in the most recent birth cohorts. Our findings support the urgent need for targeted overweight and obesity prevention and intervention programmes in Indonesia.

Association between BMI trajectories from childhood to early adulthood and the carotid intima-media thickness in early adulthood: Tehran lipid and glucose study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Childhood and adolescence overweight/obesity is an important predictor of obesity and increased long-term cardiometabolic abnormalities in adulthood. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) trajectories among children and adolescents with adulthood carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) as a determinant of subclinical atherosclerosis. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, 1265 participants aged 3 to 18 were followed up for 18 years. By using Latent Class Growth Analysis, three groups of BMI and WC trajectory were defined; low stable, moderate-increasing, and high-increasing. Linear and logistic regression analysis were used to investigate the association of each lifetime BMI and WC trajectory group with cIMT. RESULTS: Although the high-increasing BMI trajectory group was significantly associated with higher cIMT (ß=0.0464, P < 0.001), moderate-increase was not (ß=0.0096, P = 0.102); in reference to the low-stable BMI trajectory group. Among WC trajectory groups, both moderate- (ß=0.0177, P = 0.006) and high-increasing (ß=0.0533, P < 0.001), in reference to the low-stable group, were significantly associated with higher cIMT. The results did not change after adjustment for baseline BMI. The ORs of high-increasing BMI, moderate-increasing WC, and high-increasing WC trajectories were 3.24, 1.92, and 3.29, respectively for high cIMT. CONCLUSION: Our study resulted that a high-increasing trajectory of childhood BMI and moderate- and high-increasing trajectories of childhood WC are associated with higher cIMT and higher risk of high-cIMT. Regular monitoring and screening of BMI and WC trajectory from childhood may improve identifying individuals with high risks of cardiovascular disease, more accurately.

Birth outcomes and early growth patterns associated with age at adiposity rebound: the Ma'anshan birth cohort (MABC) study.

OBJECTIVE: Early onset of adiposity rebound (AR) is considered an early indicator of obesity risk. Our objective was to investigate the association of birth outcomes and early physical growth patterns with early AR in children. METHODS: Study subjects (n = 2705) were enrolled from the Ma'anshan birth cohort (MABC). The body mass index (BMI), head circumference, waist circumference, and body fat were collected. Rapid weight gain (RWG) was defined by the change in weight standard-deviation score in the first two years of life. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was used to determine children's physical growth trajectories. The age of AR was fitted using fractional polynomial function models. RESULTS: Children with very high BMI trajectories (RR = 2.83; 95% CI 2.33 to 1.40), rising BMI trajectories (RR = 3.15; 95% CI 2.66 to 3.72), high waist circumference trajectories (RR = 4.17; 95% CI 3.43 to 5.06), and high body fat trajectories (RR = 3.01; 95% CI 2.62 to 3.46) before 72 months of age were at a greater risk of experiencing early AR. Low birth weight (LBW) (RR = 1.86; 95% CI 1.28 to 2.51), preterm birth (PTB) (RR = 1.50; 95% CI 1.17 to 1.93), and small for gestational age (SGA) (RR = 1.37; 95% CI 1.14 to 1.64) associated with increased risk of early AR. Moreover, infants experiencing RWG (RR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.40 to 1.83), low BMI trajectories (RR = 1.27; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.53) and rising BMI trajectories (RR = 1.50; 95% CI 1.22 to 1.84) in the first two years were at higher risk of developing early AR subsequently. Compared to the group with non-early AR, the BMI of children with early AR tended to be lower first (from birth to 6 months of age) and then higher (from 18 to 72 months of age). CONCLUSIONS: Children with overall high BMI, high waist circumference, and high body fat before 72 months of age are more likely to experience early AR, but infants with low BMI trajectories, rising BMI trajectories and infants experiencing RWG in the first two years of life similarly increase the risk of early AR. These results can help to understand the early factors and processes that lead to metabolic risks.

Association of childhood BMI trajectory with post-adolescent and adult lung function is mediated by pre-adolescent DNA methylation.

BACKGROUND: Body mass index (BMI) has been shown to be associated with lung function. Recent findings showed that DNA methylation (DNAm) variation is likely to be a consequence of changes in BMI. However, whether DNAm mediates the association of BMI with lung function is unknown. We examined the mediating role of DNAm on the association of pre-adolescent BMI trajectories with post-adolescent and adulthood lung function (forced expiratory volume (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and FEV1/FVC). METHODS: Analyses were undertaken in the Isle of Wight birth cohort (IOWBC). Group-based trajectory modelling was applied to infer latent BMI trajectories from age 1 to 10 years. An R package, ttscreening, was applied to identify CpGs at 10 years potentially associated with BMI trajectories for each sex. Linear regressions were implemented to further screen CpGs for their association with lung function at 18 years. Path analysis, stratified by sex, was applied to each screened CpG to assess its role of mediation. Internal validation was applied to further examine the mediation consistency of the detected CpGs based on lung function at 26 years. Mendelian randomization (MR-base) was used to test possible causal effects of the identified CpGs. RESULTS: Two BMI trajectories (high vs. low) were identified. Of the 442,475 CpG sites, 18 CpGs in males and 33 in females passed screening. Eight CpGs in males and 16 CpGs in females (none overlapping) were identified as mediators. For subjects with high BMI trajectory, high DNAm at all CpGs in males were associated with decreased lung function, while 8 CpGs in females were associated with increased lung function at 18 years. At 26 years, 6 CpGs in males and 14 CpGs in females showed the same direction of indirect effects as those at 18 years. DNAm at CpGs cg19088553 (GRIK2) and cg00612625 (HPSE2) showed a potential causal effect on FEV1. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of BMI trajectory in early childhood on post-adolescence lung function were likely to be mediated by pre-adolescence DNAm in both males and females, but such mediation effects were likely to diminish over time.

Obesity and impairment of pancreatic ß-cell function in early adulthood, independent of obesity age of onset: The Santiago Longitudinal Study.

AIM: We investigated the relation of time of onset and length of obesity with biomarkers of ß-cell function in early adulthood in an infancy cohort. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In 1039 23-year-olds, body-mass index (BMI) was measured at multiple time-points from enrollment. BMI trajectories were interpolated with cubic polynomials. Fasting glucose, insulin and adiponectin were measured at 23 years. Homeostatic model assessment-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), HOMA-S, HOMA-ß, HOMA-adiponectin (AD) and disposition index (DI) were estimated. IR and non-alcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) were diagnosed. According to the BMI trajectory, five groups were defined: participants who were never obese (NOB); participants with obesity starting in adolescence and remained obese into adulthood (recent-onset obesity, ROB); participants who were obese in early childhood but transitioned to non-obesity as preadolescents (former obesity, FOB); participants who were obese in early childhood and remained obese into adulthood (persistent obesity, POB); participants with obesity starting in preadolescence and transitioned to non-obesity as adolescents (transient obesity; TOB). RESULTS: Obesity was present in 47% of participants during at least one time-point. ROBs and POBs had higher insulin, HOMA-IR and HOMA-ß, lower HOMA-S and DI, and higher prevalence of IR and NAFL at 23 years than NOBs, TOBs and FOBs. No differences were found in the ß-cell functionality of NOBs, TOBs and FOBs. CONCLUSIONS: Persistent and recent obesity are both related to IR, NAFL and a decline of ß-cell function in emerging adulthood. Defeating obesity in childhood or adolescence allows reaching emerging adulthood with ß-cell functioning similar to that of subjects who were NOB.

Long-term body mass index changes in overweight and obese adults and the risk of heart failure, cardiovascular disease and mortality: a cohort study of over 260,000 adults in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Although obesity is a well-recognised risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), the impact of long-term body mass index (BMI) changes in overweight or obese adults, on the risk of heart failure, CVD and mortality has not been quantified. METHODS: This population-based cohort study used routine UK primary care electronic health data linked to secondary care and death-registry records. We identified adults who were overweight or obese, free from CVD and who had repeated BMI measures. Using group-based trajectory modelling, we examined the BMI trajectories of these individuals and then determined incidence rates of CVD, heart failure and mortality associated with the different trajectories. Cox-proportional hazards regression determined hazards ratios for incident outcomes. RESULTS: 264,230 individuals (mean age 49.5 years (SD 12.7) and mean BMI 33.8 kg/m2 (SD 6.1)) were followed-up for a median duration of 10.9 years. Four BMI trajectories were identified, corresponding at baseline, with World Health Organisation BMI classifications for overweight, class-1, class-2 and class-3 obesity respectively. In all four groups, there was a small, stable upwards trajectory in BMI (mean BMI increase of 1.06 kg/m2 (± 3.8)). Compared with overweight individuals, class-3 obese individuals had hazards ratios (HR) of 3.26 (95% CI 2.98-3.57) for heart failure, HR of 2.72 (2.58-2.87) for all-cause mortality and HR of 3.31 (2.84-3.86) for CVD-related mortality, after adjusting for baseline demographic and cardiovascular risk factors. CONCLUSION: The majority of adults who are overweight or obese retain their degree of overweight or obesity over the long term. Individuals with stable severe obesity experience the worst heart failure, CVD and mortality outcomes. These findings highlight the high cardiovascular toll exacted by continuing failure to tackle obesity.

Comparison between type A and type B early adiposity rebound in predicting overweight and obesity in children: a longitudinal study.

Early adiposity rebound (EAR) predicts paediatric overweight/obesity, but current approaches do not consider both the starting point of EAR and the BMI trajectory. We compared the clinical characteristics at birth, age 3-5 and 6-8 years of children, according to the EAR and to its type (type A/type B-EAR). We assessed the children's odds of being classified as overweight/obese at age 6-8 years, according to the type of EAR as defined at age 3-5 years. As part of this two-wave observational study, 1055 children were recruited and examined at age 3-5 years. Antenatal and postnatal information was collected through interviews with parents, and weight and height from the health records. Type A and type B-EAR were defined in wave 1 according to the BMI nadir and the variation of BMI z-score between the starting point of the adiposity rebound and the last point on the curve. At 6-8 years (wave 2), 867 children were followed up; 426 (40·4 %) children demonstrated EAR. Among them, 172 had type A-EAR, higher rates of parental obesity (P < 0·05) and greater birth weight compared with other children (P < 0·001). Odds for overweight/obesity at 6-8 years, when adjusting for antenatal and postnatal factors, was 21·35 (95 % CI 10·94, 41·66) in type A-EAR children and not significant in type B-EAR children (OR 1·76; 95 % CI 0·84, 3·68) compared with children without EAR. Classification of EAR into two subtypes provides physicians with a reliable approach to identify children at risk for overweight/obesity before the age of 5 years.

Effect of inhaled corticosteroid use on weight (BMI) in pediatric patients with moderate-severe asthma.

OBJECTIVES: Assess the relationship between inhaled corticosteroid use (ICS) and weight (BMI) in pediatric patients with moderate-severe asthma. Assess if the number of emergency department (ED) visits correlates with overall BMI trajectory. Assess the trend of prescribing biologic therapy in pediatric patients with moderate-severe asthma and determine its relationship with weight (BMI). METHODS: A retrospective chart review was performed on 93 pediatric patients with moderate-severe asthma to determine the relationship between ICS use and weight (BMI), biologic therapy and BMI, and number of ED visits and BMI trajectory. A mixed effects model was employed with the correlation between repeated measures accounted for through the random effects. RESULTS: There is a statistically significant increase of 0.369 kg/m2 in BMI trajectory per year in subjects on high-dose steroids compared to an increase of 0.195 kg/m2 in the low dose group (p < 0.05). The BMI of subjects initiated on biologic therapy (omalizumab or mepolizumab) had a statistically significant decrease in BMI trajectory of 0.818 kg/m2 per year (p < 0.05). Subjects with ≥5 ED visits due to asthma exacerbations had a significantly higher BMI trajectory (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The potency of ICS use in pediatric patients with moderate-severe asthma affects BMI trajectory; the higher the dose, the greater the projected BMI increase per year. Initiation of biologic therapy decreased BMI trajectory over time. Lastly, those with frequent ED visits had a higher BMI trend. Future prospective studies are warranted that further evaluate the potential metabolic impacts of ICS and assess the effects of biologic therapy on BMI.

Associations Between Weight Loss, Kidney Function Decline, and Risk of ESRD in the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Anorexia and malnutrition are associated with poor outcomes in children with chronic kidney disease (CKD). STUDY DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: We assessed changes in body mass index (BMI) as kidney function declines and its association with risk for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) among 854 participants followed between 2005 to 2013 in the CKD in Children (CKiD) Study. PREDICTORS: Repeated measurements of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) by serum creatinine concentration in our trajectory analysis using mixed models; change in BMI z score (per year) after eGFR decreased to <35mL/min/1.73m2 in logistic regression models. OUTCOMES: Repeated measurements of BMI z score (as a reflection of weight status) in our trajectory analysis; ESRD in logistic regression models. RESULTS: During a mean longitudinal follow-up of 3.4 years, BMI z scores remained stable until eGFR decreased to <35mL/min/1.73m2. When eGFR decreased to <35mL/min/1.73m2, a mean decline in BMI z score of 0.13 (95% CI, 0.09-0.17) was noted with each 10-mL/min/1.73m2 further decline in eGFR. This was statistically significantly different from the weight trajectory when eGFR was ≥35mL/min/1.73 m2 (P<0.001). Among children and adolescents with significant weight loss (defined as decline in BMI z score > 0.2 per year) after eGFR decreased to <35mL/min/1.73m2, the odds of ESRD was 3.28 (95% CI, 1.53-7.05) times greater compared with participants with stable BMI z scores (BMI z score change per year of 0-0.1). LIMITATIONS: Observational nature of our study, lack of longitudinal assessments of inflammatory markers. CONCLUSIONS: In children and adolescents with CKD, weight loss mostly occurs when eGFR decreases to <35mL/min/1.73m2, and this weight loss was associated with higher risk for ESRD. Further studies are needed to define the reasons for the association between weight loss and more rapid progression to ESRD in children and adolescents.

Plasma insulin levels in childhood are related to maternal factors--results of the Ulm Birth Cohort Study.

AIMS: The cardiovascular risk factor profile of a child as well as the development of body weight are influenced by genetic and childhood factors. Circulating insulin concentrations reflect the metabolic cardiovascular risk and may trigger weight gain. We aimed at identifying parental and childhood factors which may influence fasting plasma insulin concentrations in children. METHODS: The Ulm Birth Cohort study (UBCS) is a prospective birth cohort study. At baseline, birth characteristics, maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) values as well as parental socioeconomic parameters were obtained. At the 8-yr follow-up examination, weights, heights, and fasting plasma insulin concentrations in n = 422 children and their parents were measured. Offspring of women with gestational diabetes mellitus were excluded from statistical analysis. RESULTS: Fasting plasma insulin concentrations of children were significantly correlated with maternal pre-pregnancy BMI values (r = 0.16) as well as with maternal (r = 0.26) but not with paternal fasting plasma insulin concentrations (r = 0.11) at the 8-yr follow-up examination. The risk for high fasting plasma insulin concentrations (≥75th internal percentile) was 2.30 (1.34-3.92) in children who also had high plasma insulin concentrations in umbilical cord blood compared to children having lower plasma insulin concentrations (<75th internal percentile) in umbilical cord blood. In addition, we observed that children with high fasting plasma insulin concentrations at the age of 8 had an altered BMI trajectory in childhood, characterized by higher BMI values from the age of 1 onwards, compared to children with lower insulin concentrations. CONCLUSION: Our observations support the hypothesis of perinatal programming of offspring insulin concentrations and BMI values by maternal pre-pregnancy BMI values.

Longitudinal association between Body mass index (BMI), BMI trajectories and the risk of frailty among older adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine whether BMI categories and BMI trajectories were longitudinally associated with frailty in older adults via systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. METHOD: 3 databases (PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science) were systematically searched from inception to 8 September 2023. Two independent reviewers extracted data and appraised study quality. The quality of the studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Data were pooled using random-effects models. RESULTS: 7 prospective cohort studies with 23043 participants were included in final BMI categories analyses, and 3 studies included BMI trajectory(23725 individuals). Compared with normal weight, we found a positive association between obesity (odds ratios(OR) = 1.74, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.21-2.51, P = 0.003), underweight (OR = 1.70, 95 % CI: 1.13-2.57, P = 0.011) and frailty in older adults. In middle age subgroup, compared with normal weight, OR of 2.21 (95 % CI: 1.44-3.38;I2 = 0 %) for overweight and OR of 5.20 (95 % CI: 2.56-10.55; I2 = 0 %) for obesity were significantly associated with frailty. In old age subgroup, compared with normal weight, only OR of 1.41 (95 % CI: 1.13-1.77; I2 = 65 %) for obesity was significantly associated with frailty. The results of BMI trajectories found that decreasing BMI (OR = 3.25, 95 % CI: 2.20-4.79, P < 0.0001) and consistently high BMI (OR = 3.66, 95 % CI: 2.03-6.61, P < 0.0001) increase the risk of frailty compared to consistently normal or overweight. CONCLUSION: Overweight and obesity in middle age were associated with significantly higher frailty in older adults, while obesity and underweight in old age were associated with relatively higher frailty in older adults. Early weight control may be beneficial for old age.

In utero exposure to perfluoroalkyl substances and early childhood BMI trajectories: A mediation analysis with neonatal metabolic profiles.

BACKGROUND: In utero perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) exposure has been associated with childhood adiposity, but the mechanisms are poorly known. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the potential mediating role of neonatal metabolites in the relationship between prenatal PFAS exposure and childhood adiposity trajectories in the first four years of life. METHODS: We analyzed the data for 1671 mother-child pairs from the Shanghai Birth Cohort study. We included those with PFAS exposure information in early pregnancy, neonatal metabolites data and at least three child anthropometric measurements at 6, 12, 24 and/or 48 months. Body mass index (BMI) z-score trajectories were identified using latent class growth mixture modeling. The associations between PFAS concentrations and trajectory classes were assessed using multinomial logistic regression. Screening and penalization-based selection was used to identify neonatal amino acids and acylcarnitines with significant mediation effects. RESULTS: Three BMI z-score trajectories in early childhood were identified: a persistent increase trajectory (Class 1, 2.2 %), a stable trajectory (Class 2, 66 %), and a transient increase trajectory (Class 3, 32 %). Increased odds of being in Class 1 were observed in association with one log-unit increase in concentrations of perfluorooctane sulfonate (odds ratio [OR], 1.76 [95 % CI, 0.96-3.23], Class 2 as reference; OR, 2.36 [95 % CI, 1.27-4.40], Class 3 as reference), perfluorononanoic acid (OR, 1.90 [95 % CI, 0.97-3.72], Class 2 as reference; OR, 2.23 [95 % CI, 1.12-4.42], Class 3 as reference) and perfluorodecanoic acid (OR, 1.95 [95 % CI, 1.12-3.38], Class 2 as reference; OR, 2.14 [95 % CI, 1.22-3.76], Class 3 as reference). The effect of prenatal PFAS exposure on being in Class 1 was significantly but partly mediated by octanoylcarnitine (2.64 % for perfluorononanoic acid and 3.70 % for sum of 10 PFAS). CONCLUSIONS: In utero PFAS exposure is a risk factor for persistent growth in BMI z-score in early childhood. The alteration of neonatal acylcarnitines suggests a potential molecular pathway.

Body mass index trajectories from childhood concerning emotional states in young adulthood: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

This study aimed to identify body mass index (BMI) trajectories from childhood and their relationships with depression, anxiety, and stress symptoms in young adulthood. A total of 687 children aged 4-18 years were recruited from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. Throughout 18 years of follow-up, BMI was measured every 3 years for a maximum of 6 data points. Participants completed the depression, anxiety, and stress scale in their young adulthood (aged 22-36). The group-based trajectory modelling was applied to identify BMI patterns. The logistic regression model was used to assess the association between BMI trajectories and depression, anxiety, and stress symptoms in adulthood. Two BMI trajectories were identified from childhood to young adulthood: healthy weight (HW = 69.6%) and persistent increasing overweight/obesity (PIO = 30.4%). After adjusting for potential confounders, compared with the HW group, men in the PIO group were more likely to experience higher stress levels (OR: 1.62, 95% CI: 0.99-2.63; p = 0.05). No significant association was observed between the PIO trajectory and depression and anxiety among both sexes and stress symptoms in females. Our results highlight that developing overweight and obesity from childhood may be related to increased stress in males.

Pediatric obesity - time to act as early as possible.

There has been a global increase in the average body mass index (BMI) in children and an alarming trend of increasing weight among the youngest children in recent decades. Childhood excess weight and obesity result in premature adult mortality and morbidity. Obesity is not only a risk factor for other diseases but is also a complex, multifactorial disease in its own right, linked to a genetic predisposition influenced by an increasingly permissive environment from intrauterine life throughout childhood and adolescence into adulthood. Knowledge of the prevalence of obesity from the earliest life stages and its trajectory is essential to raise awareness of the risks at each stage and to indicate the potential age of prevention and intervention. Taking effective anti-obesity measures in children, both preventive and therapeutic, is now a necessity, with successful interventions used to decrease body weight and thus reduce health consequences. Identified risk factors in the first 1,000 days of life and even earlier, before conception, suggest that this is a key period for the development of overweight and obesity, and it appears to be the best time for preventive action. The growing phenomenon of obesity among children requires not only prevention but also integral treatment. Lifestyle change intervention programs are considered key to the treatment of childhood obesity. Obesity trajectories, the higher effectiveness of applied interventions observed in younger age groups, and the dependence of the risk of developing complications on the duration of obesity confirm the need for early diagnosis and treatment of obesity in children from an early age. The main aim should be to prevent the onset of obesity, thus reducing the future health, social, and financial consequences.

Defining longitudinal trajectory of body mass index percentile and predicting childhood obesity: methodologies and findings in the Boston Birth Cohort.

Background: Overweight or obesity (OWO) in school-age childhood tends to persist into adulthood. This study aims to address a critical need for early identification of children at high risk of developing OWO by defining and analyzing longitudinal trajectories of body mass index percentile (BMIPCT) during early developmental windows. Methods: We included 3029 children from the Boston Birth Cohort (BBC) with repeated BMI measurements from birth to age 18 years. We applied locally weighted scatterplot smoothing with a time-limit scheme and predefined rules for imputation of missing data. We then used time-series K-means cluster analysis and latent class growth analysis to define longitudinal trajectories of BMIPCT from infancy up to age 18 years. Then, we investigated early life determinants of the BMI trajectories. Finally, we compared whether using early BMIPCT trajectories performs better than BMIPCT at a given age for predicting future risk of OWO. Results: After imputation, the percentage of missing data ratio decreased from 36.0% to 10.1%. We identified four BMIPCT longitudinal trajectories: early onset OWO; late onset OWO; normal stable; and low stable. Maternal OWO, smoking, and preterm birth were identified as important determinants of the two OWO trajectories. Our predictive models showed that BMIPCT trajectories in early childhood (birth to age 1 or 2 years) were more predictive of childhood OWO (age 5-10 years) than a single BMIPCT at age 1 or 2 years. Conclusions: Using longitudinal BMIPCT data from birth to age 18 years, this study identified distinct BMIPCT trajectories, examined early life determinants of these trajectories, and demonstrated their advantages in predicting childhood risk of OWO over BMIPCT at a single time point.

Different protein intake in the first year and its effects on adiposity rebound and obesity throughout childhood: 11 years follow-up of a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Infant feeding affects child growth and later obesity risk. We examined whether protein supply in infancy affects the adiposity rebound, body mass index (BMI) and overweight and obesity up to 11 years of age. METHODS: We enrolled healthy term infants from five European countries in a double blind randomized trial, with anticipated 16 examinations within 11 years follow-up. Formula-fed infants (n = 1090) were randomized to isoenergetic formula with higher or lower protein content within the range stipulated by EU legislation in 2001. A breastfed reference group (n = 588) was included. Adiposity rebound and BMI trajectories were estimated by generalized additive mixed models in 917 children, with 712 participating in the 11 year follow-up. RESULTS: BMI trajectories were elevated in the higher compared to the lower protein group, with significantly different BMI at adiposity rebound (0.24 kg/m2, 0.01-0.47, p = 0.040), and an increased risk for overweight at 11 years (adjusted Odds Ratio 1.70; 1.06-2.73; p = 0.027) but no significant difference for obesity (adjusted Odds Ratio 1.47; 0.66-3.27). The two formula groups did not differ in the timing of adiposity rebound, but all children with obesity at 11 years had an early adiposity rebound before four years. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to conventional high protein formula, feeding lower protein formula in infancy lowers BMI trajectories up to 11 years and achieves similar BMI values at adiposity rebound as observed in breastfed infants.