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1.
J Med Virol ; 96(2): e29419, 2024 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38293742

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to develop a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to evaluate monkeypox epidemics in the United States and explore more optimized prevention and control measures. To further assess the impact of public health measures on the transmission of monkeypox, different intervention scenarios were developed based on the classic SEIR model, considering reducing contact, enhancing vaccination, diagnosis delay, and environmental transmission risk, respectively. We evaluated the impact of different measures by simulating their spread in different scenarios. During the simulation period, 8709 people were infected with monkeypox. The simulation analysis showed that: (1) the most effective measures to control monkeypox transmission during the early stage of the epidemic were reducing contact and enhancing vaccination, with cumulative infections at 51.20% and 41.90% of baseline levels, respectively; (2) shortening diagnosis time would delay the peak time of the epidemic by 96 days; and (3) the risk of environmental transmission of monkeypox virus was relatively low. This study indirectly proved the effectiveness of the prevention and control measures, such as reducing contact, enhancing vaccination, shortening diagnosis time, and low risk of environmental transmission, which also provided an important reference and containment experience for nonepidemic countries.


Subject(s)
Epidemics , Mpox (monkeypox) , United States/epidemiology , Humans , Mpox (monkeypox)/diagnosis , Mpox (monkeypox)/epidemiology , Mpox (monkeypox)/prevention & control , Monkeypox virus , Public Health , Computer Simulation
2.
Biol Pharm Bull ; 47(5): 924-929, 2024.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38692870

ABSTRACT

The region-to-region spread of human infectious diseases is considered to be dependent on the human mobility flow (HMF). However, it has been hard to obtain the evidence for this. Since the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Japan 2020, the government has enforced countermeasures against COVID-19 nationwide, namely the restriction of personal travelling, universal masking, and hand hygiene. As a result, the spread of acute respiratory infections had been effectively controlled. However, COVID-19 as well as pediatric respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections were not well-controlled. The region-to-region spread of pediatric RSV infections in 2020-2021 was recognizable unlike those in 2018 and 2019. In this study, we investigated the correlation between the trend of regional reports of the pediatric RSV infections and the HMF based on cellular phone signal data. Upon closer examination of both epidemiological trend and HMF data, the spread of pediatric RSV infection from one region to another was logically explained by HMF, which would serve as the evidence of the dependence of regional transmission on HMF. This is the first solid evidence where this correlation has been clearly observed for the common respiratory infections. While social implementation of infection control measures has successfully suppressed the droplet-mediated respiratory infections, such as influenza, but not the airborne infections, it was suggested that the aerosol transmission and adult asymptomatic carrier were involved in the transmission of RSV akin to COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections , Humans , Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections/epidemiology , Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections/prevention & control , Infant , Japan/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/transmission , Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human , SARS-CoV-2
3.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 1438, 2024 May 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38811933

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries adopted social distance measures and lockdowns of varying strictness. Social contact patterns are essential in driving the spread of respiratory infections, and country-specific measurements are needed. This study aimed to gain insights into changes in social contacts and behaviour during the early pandemic phase in Norway. METHODS: We conducted an online panel study among a nationally representative sample of Norwegian adults by age and gender. The panel study included six data collections waves between April and September 2020, and 2017 survey data from a random sample of the Norwegian population (including children < 18 years old) were used as baseline. The market research company Ipsos was responsible for carrying out the 2020 surveys. We calculated mean daily contacts, and estimated age-stratified contact matrices during the study period employing imputation of child-to-child contacts. We used the next-generation method to assess the relative reduction of R0 and compared the results to reproduction numbers estimated for Norway during the 2020 study period. RESULTS: Over the six waves in 2020, 5 938 observations/responses were registered from 1 718 individuals who reported data on 22 074 contacts. The mean daily number of contacts among adults varied between 3.2 (95%CI 3.0-3.4) to 3.9 (95%CI 3.6-4.2) across the data collection waves, representing a 67-73% decline compared to pre-pandemic levels (baseline). Fewer contacts in the community setting largely drove the reduction; the drop was most prominent among younger adults. Despite gradual easing of social distance measures during the survey period, the estimated population contact matrices remained relatively stable and displayed more inter-age group mixing than at baseline. Contacts within households and the community outside schools and workplaces contributed most to social encounters. Using the next-generation method R0 was found to be roughly 25% of pre-pandemic levels during the study period, suggesting controlled transmission. CONCLUSION: Social contacts declined significantly in the months following the March 2020 lockdown, aligning with implementation of stringent social distancing measures. These findings contribute valuable empirical information into the social behaviour in Norway during the early pandemic, which can be used to enhance policy-relevant models for addressing future crises when mitigation measures might be implemented.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Norway/epidemiology , Adult , Male , Female , Middle Aged , Young Adult , Adolescent , Pandemics , Aged , Child , Contact Tracing , Surveys and Questionnaires , SARS-CoV-2
4.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 543, 2024 Feb 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38383375

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to evaluate the public acceptance of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) control measures during the Omicron-dominant period and its associated factors. METHODS: A cross-sectional design was conducted and 1391 study participants were openly recruited to participate in the questionnaire survey. Logistic regression model was performed to assess the association between the public acceptance and potential factors more specifically. RESULTS: By August 26, 2022, 58.9% of the study participants were less acceptive of the control measures while 41.1% expressed higher acceptance. Factors associated with lower acceptance included young age, such as < 18 (OR = 8.251, 95% CI: 2.009 to 33.889) and 18-29 (OR = 2.349, 95% CI: 1.564 to 3.529), and household per capita monthly income lower than 5000 yuan (OR = 1.512, 95% CI: 1.085 to 2.105). Furthermore, individuals who perceived that the case fatality rate (CFR) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) was very low (OR = 6.010, 95% CI: 2.475 to 14.595) and that the restrictions could be eased once the CFR dropped to 2-3 times of the influenza (OR = 2.792, 95% CI: 1.939 to 4.023) showed greater oppositional attitudes. Likewise, respondents who were dissatisfied with control measures (OR = 9.639, 95% CI: 4.425 to 20.998) or preferred fully relaxation as soon as possible (OR = 13.571, 95% CI: 7.751 to 23.758) had even lower acceptability. By contrast, rural residents (OR = 0.683, 95% CI: 0.473 to 0.987), students (OR = 0.510, 95% CI: 0.276 to 0.941), public (OR = 0.417, 95% CI: 0.240 to 0.727) and private (OR = 0.562, 95% CI: 0.320 to 0.986) employees, and vaccinated participants (OR = 0.393, 95% CI: 0.204 to 0.756) were more compliant with control measures. CONCLUSION: More than half of the Chinese public were less supportive of COVID-19 control measures during Omicron-dominant period, which varied based on their different demographic characteristics, cognition and overall attitude towards SARS-CoV-2 infection. Control measures that struck a balance between public safety and individual freedom would be more acceptable during the pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Communicable Disease Control , Humans , China/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Cross-Sectional Studies , Surveys and Questionnaires , Patient Compliance
5.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 551, 2024 Feb 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38388363

ABSTRACT

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan has implemented strict border controls and community spread prevention measures. As part of these efforts, the government also implemented measures for public transportation. In Taiwan, there are two primary public transportation systems: Taiwan Railways (TR) is commonly utilized for local travel, while the Taiwan High-Speed Rail (THSR) is preferred for business trips and long-distance journeys due to its higher speed. In this study, we examined the impact of these disease prevention measures on the number of passengers and duration of stay in two major public transportation systems during the first community outbreak from April 29th to May 29th, 2021. Using data from a local telecommunications company, our study observed an expected decrease in the number of passengers after the cancellation of non-reserved seats at both TR and THSR stations across all 19 cities in the main island of Taiwan. Surprisingly, however, the duration of stay in some of the cities unexpectedly increased, especially at THSR stations. This unanticipated rise in the duration of stay has the potential to elevate contact probability among passengers and, consequently, the transmission rate. Our analysis shows that intervention policies may result in unforeseen outcomes, highlighting the crucial role of human mobility data as a real-time reference for policymakers. It enables them to monitor the impact of disease prevention measures and facilitates informed, data-driven decision-making.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Taiwan/epidemiology , Pandemics/prevention & control , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Transportation
6.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 2436, 2024 Sep 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39244542

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Methamphetamine (MA) (Mkpurummiri) is seen as the most common, accessible and new drug of use/abuse in south east Nigeria. Despite the overwhelming evidence of the dire consequences of this drug to the users, there is lack of empirical research to determine its prevalence in this area where use is assumed to be common. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of MA use, characteristics of the users and the control measures. METHODS: A descriptive cross-sectional survey research design was conducted from May through November 2023 among adolescents/adults at the age bracket of 15-64 years in the five states of south east, Nigeria. Three hundred and seventy-one (371) respondents were recruited using purposive/convenience sampling methods. A semi structured questionnaire was the instrument used. Data were analyzed using percentage, bivariate and multivariate logistics regression statistics. The Prevalence of MA was determined using percentages whereas the factors that are associated with MA use were expressed using multivariate logistics regression statistics AORs and 95%CIs. The level of significance was set at P < 0.05. RESULTS: The prevalence of Methamphetamine (Mkpurummiri) was (21.8%). The most common reason for MA use was depression (86.5%), the most common route of administration was inhalation (64.9%). The most common characteristic of MA (Mkpurummiri) user was aggressive/violent behaviour (94.1%).The control measures were self-control (92.2%), parental monitoring (85.7%), drug education (83.1%) and legal control (80.8%). The multivariate logistics regression statistics AOR shows that off-campus were 3 times (AOR = 0.298; CI = 0.12-0.73 P = 0.008), family house 4 times (AOR = 0.241; CI = 0.09-0.65; P = 0.005 ≤ 0.05 ) less likely than on-campus to predict MA use. Recently married were 3.25 times (aOR = 3.25; CI = 1.47-7.18), divorced 3.45 times (aOR = 3.45; CI = 1.23-9.58), polygamy 2.3 times (aOR = 2.3; CI = 1.08-4.90; P = 0.031 ≤ 0.05 ), tradition 4.44 times (aOR = 4.44; CI = 1.77-11.15; P = 0.001 ≤ 0.05 ) , more likely than others to use MA. CONCLUSIONS: MA use prevalence was relatively high, and marital status, living arrangements, family type and religion were the predictors. These findings underscore the need for concerted effort among the relevant government agencies, community stakeholders, families, religious bodies and school authorities to designing MA use policy/laws with special focus on adopting the punitive measure used in checking cocaine users. This may help to arrest and prosecute the manufacturers, distributors and users of MA.


Subject(s)
Amphetamine-Related Disorders , Methamphetamine , Humans , Cross-Sectional Studies , Nigeria/epidemiology , Adult , Female , Male , Young Adult , Adolescent , Prevalence , Middle Aged , Amphetamine-Related Disorders/epidemiology , Surveys and Questionnaires
7.
J Dairy Sci ; 107(9): 6930-6944, 2024 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38788850

ABSTRACT

An increasing number of countries are investigating options to stop the spread of the emerging zoonotic infection Salmonella Dublin (S. Dublin), which mainly spreads among bovines and with cattle manure. Detailed surveillance and cattle movement data from an 11-yr period in Denmark provided an opportunity to gain new knowledge for mitigation options through a combined social network and simulation modeling approach. The analysis revealed similar network trends for noninfected and infected cattle farms despite stringent cattle movement restrictions imposed on infected farms in the national control program. The strongest predictive factor for farms becoming infected was their cattle movement activities in the previous month, with twice the effect of local transmission. The simulation model indicated an endemic S. Dublin occurrence, with peaks in outbreak probabilities and sizes around observed cattle movement activities. Therefore, pre- and postmovement measures within a 1-mo time window may help reduce S. Dublin spread.


Subject(s)
Cattle Diseases , Farms , Salmonella Infections, Animal , Animals , Cattle , Salmonella Infections, Animal/prevention & control , Salmonella Infections, Animal/transmission , Cattle Diseases/prevention & control , Cattle Diseases/transmission , Denmark , Social Network Analysis , Disease Outbreaks/veterinary , Salmonella
8.
Ecotoxicol Environ Saf ; 283: 116782, 2024 Sep 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39059345

ABSTRACT

Tire wear particles (TWPs), common mixed particulate emerging contaminants in the environment, have global per capita emissions accounting for 0.23-1.9 kg/year, attracting global attention recently due to their wide detection, small size, mobility, and high toxicity. This review focuses on the occurrence characteristics of TWPs in multiple environmental media, adverse effects on organisms, potential toxicity mechanisms, and environmental risk prevention and control strategies of TWPs. The environmental fate of TWPs throughout the entire process is systematically investigated by the bibliometric analysis function of CiteSpace. This review supplements the gap in the joint toxicity and related toxicity mechanisms of TWPs with other environmental pollutants. Based on the risks review of TWPs and their additives, adverse impacts have been found in organisms from aquatic environments, soil, and humans, such as the growth inhibition effect on Chironomus dilutes. A multi-faceted and rationalized prevention and control treatment of "source-process-end" for the whole process can be achieved by regulating the use of studded tires, improving the tire additive formula, growing plants roadside, encouraging micro-degradation, and other methods, which are first reviewed. By addressing the current knowledge gaps and exploring prospects, this study contributes to developing strategies for reducing risks and assessing the fate of TWPs in multiple environmental media.


Subject(s)
Particulate Matter , Environmental Monitoring , Humans , Risk Assessment , Animals , Air Pollutants/toxicity , Air Pollutants/analysis , Particle Size
9.
Euro Surveill ; 29(26)2024 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38940004

ABSTRACT

In 2022, an outbreak with severe bloodstream infections caused by Serratia marcescens occurred in an adult intensive care unit (ICU) in Hungary. Eight cases, five of whom died, were detected. Initial control measures could not stop the outbreak. We conducted a matched case-control study. In univariable analysis, the cases were more likely to be located around one sink in the ICU and had more medical procedures and medications than the controls, however, the multivariable analysis was not conclusive. Isolates from blood cultures of the cases and the ICU environment were closely related by whole genome sequencing and resistant or tolerant against the quaternary ammonium compound surface disinfectant used in the ICU. Thus, S. marcescens was able to survive in the environment despite regular cleaning and disinfection. The hospital replaced the disinfectant with another one, tightened the cleaning protocol and strengthened hand hygiene compliance among the healthcare workers. Together, these control measures have proved effective to prevent new cases. Our results highlight the importance of multidisciplinary outbreak investigations, including environmental sampling, molecular typing and testing for disinfectant resistance.


Subject(s)
Cross Infection , Disease Outbreaks , Disinfectants , Intensive Care Units , Serratia Infections , Serratia marcescens , Humans , Serratia marcescens/drug effects , Serratia marcescens/genetics , Serratia marcescens/isolation & purification , Cross Infection/epidemiology , Cross Infection/microbiology , Hungary/epidemiology , Serratia Infections/epidemiology , Serratia Infections/microbiology , Disinfectants/pharmacology , Case-Control Studies , Male , Female , Adult , Middle Aged , Whole Genome Sequencing , Disinfection/methods , Aged , Infection Control/methods , Drug Resistance, Bacterial
10.
Int J Mol Sci ; 25(16)2024 Aug 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39201287

ABSTRACT

Medicinal plants play a pivotal role in traditional medicine and modern pharmacology due to their various bioactive compounds. However, heat stress caused by climate change will seriously affect the survival and quality of medicinal plants. In this review, we update our understanding of the research progress on medicinal plants' response mechanisms and control measures under heat stress over the last decade. This includes physiological changes, molecular mechanisms, and technical means to improve the heat tolerance of medicinal plants under heat stress. It provides a reference for cultivating heat-resistant varieties of medicinal plants and the rational utilization of control measures to improve the heat resistance of medicinal plants.


Subject(s)
Heat-Shock Response , Plants, Medicinal , Plants, Medicinal/chemistry , Climate Change
11.
J Environ Manage ; 354: 120286, 2024 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38354613

ABSTRACT

The threat of bioterrorism has spurred research on the decontamination and containment of different agents. Anthrax [causative agent Bacillus anthracis (Ba)] is a disease that can lead to severe infections within human and animals, particularly when inhaled. This research investigated the use of spore-contaminated simulated runoff events into stormwater control measures (SCMs), which are designed to retain and improve the quality of runoff and may have the potential to filter and contain the spores. In this study, the effectiveness of a bioretention cell (BRC) and high flow media filter (HFMF) in Huron, Ohio, were evaluated for removal of Bacillus globigii (Bg) spores (a harmless cognate of Ba). Three 4-8 mm simulated runoff events were created for each SCM using a fire hydrant and Bg spores were injected into the runoff upstream of the SCM inlets. The BRC significantly (p < 0.001) outperformed the HFMF in reducing Bg concentrations and loads, with an average load reduction of 1.9 log (∼99% reduction) compared to 0.4 (∼60% reduction), respectively. A probable critical design factor leading to these differences was the infiltration rate of the media and subsequent retention time within the filters, which was supported by similar disparities in suspended solids reductions. Differences in spore removal may also have been due to particle size distribution of the HFMF, which was more gravelly than the bioretention cell. At 3 and 6 months after the-simulated runoff tests, soil samples taken from both SCMs, yielding detectable Bg spores within the top 15 cm of media, with increased spore concentrations where ponding occurred for longer durations during the tests. This suggests that forebays and areas near inlets may be hotspots for spore cleanup in a real-world bioterrorism incident.


Subject(s)
Bacillus anthracis , Bacillus , Animals , Humans , Spores, Bacterial , Bacillus subtilis
12.
J Environ Manage ; 352: 119946, 2024 Feb 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38237337

ABSTRACT

To investigate the particle sources before, during, and after the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic and Paralympic (WOP) in Beijing, ambient particles were passively collected from January to March 2022. The physicochemical properties including morphology, size, shape parameters, and elemental compositions were analyzed by the IntelliSEM EPAS (an advanced computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy [CCSEM] system). Using the user-defined classification rules, 37,174 individual particles were automatically classified into 27 major groups and further attributed to seven major sources based on the source-associated characteristics, including mineral dust, secondary aerosol, combustion/industry, carbonaceous particles, salt-related particles, biological particles, and fiber particles. Our results showed that mineral dust (66.5%), combustion/industry (12.6%), and secondary aerosol (6.3%) were the three major sources in a wide size range of 0.2-42.8 µm. During the Winter Olympic Games period, low emission of anthropogenic particles and favorable meteorological conditions contributed to significantly improved air quality. During the Winter Paralympic Games period, more particles sourced from the dust storm, secondary formed particles, and the adverse meteorological conditions resulted in relatively worse air quality. The secondary aerosol all decreased during the competition period, while increased during the non-competition period. Sulfate-related particles had explosive growth and further aggravate the pollution degree during the non-competition period, especially under adverse meteorological conditions. These results provide microscopic evidence revealing variations of physicochemical properties and sources in response to the control measures and meteorological conditions.


Subject(s)
Air Pollutants , Air Pollution , Beijing , Air Pollutants/analysis , Particulate Matter/analysis , Particle Size , Environmental Monitoring , Air Pollution/analysis , Dust/analysis , Seasons , Aerosols/analysis , Minerals
13.
Environ Monit Assess ; 196(7): 637, 2024 Jun 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38902553

ABSTRACT

Demonstrating the temporal changes in PM2.5 pollution risk in regions facing serious PM2.5 pollution problems can provide scientific evidence for the air pollution control of the region. However, research on the variation of PM2.5 pollution risk on a fine temporal scale is very limited. Therefore, we developed a method for quantitative characterizing PM2.5 pollution risk based on the supply and demand of PM2.5 removal services, analyzed the time series characteristics of PM2.5 pollution risk, and explored the reasons for the temporal changes using the urban areas of Beijing as the case study area. The results show that the PM2.5 pollution risk in the urban areas of Beijing was close between 2008 and 2012, decreased by approximately 16.3% in 2016 compared to 2012, and further decreased by approximately 13.2% in 2021 compared to 2016. The temporal variation pattern of the PM2.5 pollution risk in 2016 and 2021 showed significant differences, including an increase in the number of risk-free days, a decrease in the number of heavily polluted days, and an increase in the stability of the risk day sequence. The significant reduction in risk level was mainly attributed to Beijing's air pollution control measures, supplemented by the impact of COVID-19 control measures in 2021. The results of PM2.5 pollution risk decomposition indicate that compared to the previous 2 years, the stability and predictability of the risk variation in 2016 increased, but the overall characteristics of high risk from November to February and low risk from April to September did not change. The high risk from November to February was mainly due to the demand for coal heating during this period, a decrease in PM2.5 removal service supply caused by plant leaf fall, and the common occurrence of temperature inversions in winter, which hinders the diffusion of air pollutants. This study provides a method for the analysis of PM2.5 pollution risk on fine temporal scales and may provide a reference for the PM2.5 pollution control in the urban areas of Beijing.


Subject(s)
Air Pollutants , Air Pollution , Environmental Monitoring , Particulate Matter , Particulate Matter/analysis , Beijing , Air Pollution/statistics & numerical data , Environmental Monitoring/methods , Air Pollutants/analysis , COVID-19/epidemiology , Humans
14.
Environ Monit Assess ; 196(3): 323, 2024 Feb 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38421451

ABSTRACT

This study aims to generate a satellite-based qualitative emission source characterization for the heavily polluted eastern part of China in the 2010-2016 time period. The applied source identification technique relies on satellite-based NOx and SO2 emission estimates by OMI, their SO2:NOx ratio, and the MIX anthropogenic emission inventory to distinguish emissions from different emission categories (urban, industrial, natural) and characterize the dominant source per 0.25° × 0.25° grid cell in East China. Overall, we find good agreement between the satellite- and emission inventory-based spatiotemporal distribution and characterization of the dominant emission sources in East China in 2010-2016. In 2010, the satellite measurements suggest an emission distribution less dominated by industrial areas, a somewhat larger role for urban/transportation areas and agricultural activities, and more natural emissions in the southern part compared to the bottom-up emission categorization. In 2016, more than half of the classified emission categories over East China have remained the same. At the same time, there is a notable increase of agricultural lands and decrease of areas dominated by industry/transportation in 2016, suggestive of an overall decrease in heavy air pollution in East China over the course of 7 years. This is likely attributed to the sustained efforts of the Chinese government to drastically improve the air quality, especially since 2013 when the National Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan was enacted. However, signs of urban expansion (urbanization) and rural-urban migration ("Go West" motion) stemmed from China's rapid economic growth and labour demand are evident; escalating industrialization (even with cleaner means) and the urban population growth in East China resulted in stronger emissions from sources representing consumption and transportation which are strongly related to NO2 and PM10 pollution (rather than SO2) and are directly influenced by the population size. This resulted to a shift of the emissions from the east mainly to the north and northwest of East China. Overall, although the effectiveness of the Chinese environmental control policies has been successful, the air pollution problem remains an important concern.


Subject(s)
Air Pollution , Environmental Monitoring , Environmental Pollution , Air Pollution/prevention & control , Agriculture , China
15.
Sud Med Ekspert ; 67(2): 43-46, 2024.
Article in Russian | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38587158

ABSTRACT

The objective of the study is to analyze existing measures and identify problematic aspects of ensuring the organization of infectious safety activity in forensic medical expert institutions, to develop ways of their solution. Documents regulating the functional principles of forensic medical expert institutions in cases of detection or suspicion of infectious pathology have been examined. Specific proposals for the development of a system to ensure infectious safety in the organization of work in the bureau of forensic medical expertise have been formulated.


Subject(s)
Expert Testimony , Forensic Medicine
16.
J Theor Biol ; 565: 111468, 2023 05 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36940811

ABSTRACT

COVID-19, induced by the SARS-CoV-2 infection, has caused an unprecedented pandemic in the world. New variants of the virus have emerged and dominated the virus population. In this paper, we develop a multi-strain model with asymptomatic transmission to study how the asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic infection influences the transmission between different strains and control strategies that aim to mitigate the pandemic. Both analytical and numerical results reveal that the competitive exclusion principle still holds for the model with the asymptomatic transmission. By fitting the model to the COVID-19 case and viral variant data in the US, we show that the omicron variants are more transmissible but less fatal than the previously circulating variants. The basic reproduction number for the omicron variants is estimated to be 11.15, larger than that for the previous variants. Using mask mandate as an example of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we show that implementing it before the prevalence peak can significantly lower and postpone the peak. The time of lifting the mask mandate can affect the emergence and frequency of subsequent waves. Lifting before the peak will result in an earlier and much higher subsequent wave. Caution should also be taken to lift the restriction when a large portion of the population remains susceptible. The methods and results obtained her e may be applied to the study of the dynamics of other infectious diseases with asymptomatic transmission using other control measures.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Female , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Basic Reproduction Number , Pandemics
17.
J Theor Biol ; 557: 111336, 2023 01 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36323394

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 epidemic has lasted for more than two years since the outbreak in late 2019. An urgent and challenging question is how to systematically evaluate epidemic developments in different countries, during different periods, and to determine which measures that could be implemented are key for successful epidemic prevention. In this study, SBD distance-based K-shape clustering and hierarchical clustering methods were used to analyse epidemics in Asian countries. For the hierarchical clustering, epidemic time series were divided into three periods (epidemics induced by the Original/Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants separately). Standard deviations, the Hurst index, mortality rates, peak value of confirmed cases per capita, average growth rates, and the control efficiency of each period were used to characterize the epidemics. In addition, the total numbers of cases in the different countries were analysed by correlation and regression in relation to 15 variables that could have impacts on COVID-19. Finally, some suggestions on prevention and control measures for each category of country are given. We found that the total numbers of cases per million of a population, total deaths per million and mortality rates were highly correlated with the proportion of people aged over 65 years, the prevalence of multiple diseases, and the national GDP. We also found significant associations between case numbers and vaccination rates, health expenditures, and stringency of control measures. Vaccinations have played a positive role in COVID-19, with a gradual decline in mortality rates in later periods, and are still playing protective roles against the Delta and Omicron strains. The stringency of control measures taken by a government is not an indicator of the appropriateness of a country's response to the outbreak, and a higher index does not necessarily mean more effective measures; a combination of factors such as national vaccination rates, the country's economic foundation and the availability of medical equipment is also needed. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Pandemics , Asia/epidemiology
18.
Crit Rev Food Sci Nutr ; 63(22): 5874-5889, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34996325

ABSTRACT

Frozen storage is most widely adopted preservation method to maintain food freshness and nutritional attributes. However, at low temperature, food is prone to chemical changes such as protein denaturation and lipid oxidation. In this review, we discussed the reasons and influencing factors that cause protein denaturation during freezing, such as freezing rate, freezing temperature, freezing method, etc. From the previous literatures, it was found that frozen storage is commonly used to prevent freeze induced protein denaturation by adding cryoprotectants to food. Some widely used cryoprotectants (for example, sucrose and sorbitol) have been reported with higher sweetness and weaker cryoprotective abilities. Therefore, this article comprehensively discusses the new cryopreservation methods and providing comparative study to the conventional frozen storage. Meanwhile, this article sheds light on the freeze induced alterations, such as change in functional and gelling properties. In addition, this article could be helpful for the prolonged frozen storage of food with minimum quality related changes. Meanwhile, it could also improve the commercial values and consumer satisfaction of frozen food as well.


Subject(s)
Cryoprotective Agents , Frozen Foods , Freezing , Cryoprotective Agents/chemistry , Temperature
19.
BMC Infect Dis ; 23(1): 467, 2023 Jul 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37442963

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: To investigate the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the prevalence of respiratory viruses among pediatric patients with acute respiratory infections in Xuzhou from 2015-2021. METHODS: Severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) cases in hospitalized children were collected from 2015-2021 in Xuzhou, China. Influenza virus(IFV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human parainfluenza virus type 3(hPIV-3), human rhinovirus (hRV), human adenovirus(hAdV), human coronavirus(hCoV) were detected by real-time fluorescence polymerase chain reaction(RT-qPCR), and the results were statistically analyzed by SPSS 23.0 software. RESULTS: A total of 1663 samples with SARI were collected from 2015-2021, with a male-to-female ratio of 1.67:1 and a total virus detection rate of 38.5% (641/1663). The total detection rate of respiratory viruses decreased from 46.2% (2015-2019) to 36% (2020-2021) under the control measures for COVID-19 (P < 0.01). The three viruses with the highest detection rates changed from hRV, RSV, and hPIV-3 to hRV, RSV, and hCoV. The epidemic trend of hPIV-3 and hAdV was upside down before and after control measures(P < 0.01); however, the epidemic trend of RV and RSV had not changed from 2015 to 2021(P > 0.05). After the control measures, the detection rate of hPIV-3 decreased in all age groups, and the detection rate of hCoV increased in all except the 1 ~ 3 years old group. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing control measures for COVID-19 outbreak curbed the spread of respiratory viruses among children as a whole. However, the epidemic of RV and RSV was not affected by the COVID-19 control policy.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human , Respiratory Tract Infections , Viruses , Child , Humans , Male , Female , Infant , Child, Preschool , Pandemics , Watchful Waiting , COVID-19/epidemiology , Respiratory Tract Infections/epidemiology , China/epidemiology , Parainfluenza Virus 1, Human
20.
Eur J Epidemiol ; 38(3): 237-242, 2023 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36738380

ABSTRACT

Neither vaccination nor natural infection result in long-lasting protection against SARS-COV-2 infection and transmission, but both reduce the risk of severe COVID-19. To generate insights into optimal vaccination strategies for prevention of severe COVID-19 in the population, we extended a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) mathematical model to compare the impact of vaccines that are highly protective against severe COVID-19 but not against infection and transmission, with those that block SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our analysis shows that vaccination strategies focusing on the prevention of severe COVID-19 are more effective than those focusing on creating of herd immunity. Key uncertainties that would affect the choice of vaccination strategies are: (1) the duration of protection against severe disease, (2) the protection against severe disease from variants that escape vaccine-induced immunity, (3) the incidence of long-COVID and level of protection provided by the vaccine, and (4) the rate of serious adverse events following vaccination, stratified by demographic variables.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Vaccines , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Vaccination
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