Long-term declines in chlorophyll a and variable phenology revealed by a 60-year estuarine plankton time series.

Long-term ecological time series provide a unique perspective on the emergent properties of ecosystems. In aquatic systems, phytoplankton form the base of the food web and their biomass, measured as the concentration of the photosynthetic pigment chlorophyll a (chl a), is an indicator of ecosystem quality. We analyzed temporal trends in chl a from the Long-Term Plankton Time Series in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA, a temperate estuary experiencing long-term warming and changing anthropogenic nutrient inputs. Dynamic linear models were used to impute and model environmental variables (1959 to 2019) and chl a concentrations (1968 to 2019). A long-term chl a decrease was observed with an average decline in the cumulative annual chl a concentration of 49% and a marked decline of 57% in winter-spring bloom magnitude. The long-term decline in chl a concentration was directly and indirectly associated with multiple environmental factors that are impacted by climate change (e.g., warming temperatures, water column stratification, reduced nutrient concentrations) indicating the importance of accounting for regional climate change effects in ecosystem-based management. Analysis of seasonal phenology revealed that the winter-spring bloom occurred earlier, at a rate of 4.9 ± 2.8 d decade-1. Finally, the high degree of temporal variation in phytoplankton biomass observed in Narragansett Bay appears common among estuaries, coasts, and open oceans. The commonality among these marine ecosystems highlights the need to maintain a robust set of phytoplankton time series in the coming decades to improve signal-to-noise ratios and identify trends in these highly variable environments.

Tabular deep learning: a comparative study applied to multi-task genome-wide prediction.

PURPOSE: More accurate prediction of phenotype traits can increase the success of genomic selection in both plant and animal breeding studies and provide more reliable disease risk prediction in humans. Traditional approaches typically use regression models based on linear assumptions between the genetic markers and the traits of interest. Non-linear models have been considered as an alternative tool for modeling genomic interactions (i.e. non-additive effects) and other subtle non-linear patterns between markers and phenotype. Deep learning has become a state-of-the-art non-linear prediction method for sound, image and language data. However, genomic data is better represented in a tabular format. The existing literature on deep learning for tabular data proposes a wide range of novel architectures and reports successful results on various datasets. Tabular deep learning applications in genome-wide prediction (GWP) are still rare. In this work, we perform an overview of the main families of recent deep learning architectures for tabular data and apply them to multi-trait regression and multi-class classification for GWP on real gene datasets. METHODS: The study involves an extensive overview of recent deep learning architectures for tabular data learning: NODE, TabNet, TabR, TabTransformer, FT-Transformer, AutoInt, GANDALF, SAINT and LassoNet. These architectures are applied to multi-trait GWP. Comprehensive benchmarks of various tabular deep learning methods are conducted to identify best practices and determine their effectiveness compared to traditional methods. RESULTS: Extensive experimental results on several genomic datasets (three for multi-trait regression and two for multi-class classification) highlight LassoNet as a standout performer, surpassing both other tabular deep learning models and the highly efficient tree based LightGBM method in terms of both best prediction accuracy and computing efficiency. CONCLUSION: Through series of evaluations on real-world genomic datasets, the study identifies LassoNet as a standout performer, surpassing decision tree methods like LightGBM and other tabular deep learning architectures in terms of both predictive accuracy and computing efficiency. Moreover, the inherent variable selection property of LassoNet provides a systematic way to find important genetic markers that contribute to phenotype expression.

Flexible multi-step hypothesis testing of human ECoG data using cluster-based permutation tests with GLMEs.

BACKGROUND: Time series analysis is critical for understanding brain signals and their relationship to behavior and cognition. Cluster-based permutation tests (CBPT) are commonly used to analyze a variety of electrophysiological signals including EEG, MEG, ECoG, and sEEG data without a priori assumptions about specific temporal effects. However, two major limitations of CBPT include the inability to directly analyze experiments with multiple fixed effects and the inability to account for random effects (e.g. variability across subjects). Here, we propose a flexible multi-step hypothesis testing strategy using CBPT with Linear Mixed Effects Models (LMEs) and Generalized Linear Mixed Effects Models (GLMEs) that can be applied to a wide range of experimental designs and data types. METHODS: We first evaluate the statistical robustness of LMEs and GLMEs using simulated data distributions. Second, we apply a multi-step hypothesis testing strategy to analyze ERPs and broadband power signals extracted from human ECoG recordings collected during a simple image viewing experiment with image category and novelty as fixed effects. Third, we assess the statistical power differences between analyzing signals with CBPT using LMEs compared to CBPT using separate t-tests run on each fixed effect through simulations that emulate broadband power signals. Finally, we apply CBPT using GLMEs to high-gamma burst data to demonstrate the extension of the proposed method to the analysis of nonlinear data. RESULTS: First, we found that LMEs and GLMEs are robust statistical models. In simple simulations LMEs produced highly congruent results with other appropriately applied linear statistical models, but LMEs outperformed many linear statistical models in the analysis of "suboptimal" data and maintained power better than analyzing individual fixed effects with separate t-tests. GLMEs also performed similarly to other nonlinear statistical models. Second, in real world human ECoG data, LMEs performed at least as well as separate t-tests when applied to predefined time windows or when used in conjunction with CBPT. Additionally, fixed effects time courses extracted with CBPT using LMEs from group-level models of pseudo-populations replicated latency effects found in individual category-selective channels. Third, analysis of simulated broadband power signals demonstrated that CBPT using LMEs was superior to CBPT using separate t-tests in identifying time windows with significant fixed effects especially for small effect sizes. Lastly, the analysis of high-gamma burst data using CBPT with GLMEs produced results consistent with CBPT using LMEs applied to broadband power data. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a general approach for statistical analysis of electrophysiological data using CBPT in conjunction with LMEs and GLMEs. We demonstrate that this method is robust for experiments with multiple fixed effects and applicable to the analysis of linear and nonlinear data. Our methodology maximizes the statistical power available in a dataset across multiple experimental variables while accounting for hierarchical random effects and controlling FWER across fixed effects. This approach substantially improves power leading to better reproducibility. Additionally, CBPT using LMEs and GLMEs can be used to analyze individual channels or pseudo-population data for the comparison of functional or anatomical groups of data.

A Cautionary Note on Using Propensity Score Calibration to Control for Unmeasured Confounding Bias When the Surrogacy Assumption Is Absent.

Conventional propensity score methods encounter challenges when unmeasured confounding is present, as it becomes impossible to accurately estimate the gold-standard propensity score when data on certain confounders are unavailable. Propensity score calibration (PSC) addresses this issue by constructing a surrogate for the gold-standard propensity score under the surrogacy assumption. This assumption posits that the error-prone propensity score, based on observed confounders, is independent of the outcome when conditioned on the gold-standard propensity score and the exposure. However, this assumption implies that confounders cannot directly impact the outcome and that their effects on the outcome are solely mediated through the propensity score. This raises concerns regarding the applicability of PSC in practical settings where confounders can directly affect the outcome. While PSC aims to target a conditional treatment effect by conditioning on a subject's unobservable propensity score, the causal interest in the latter case lies in a conditional treatment effect conditioned on a subject's baseline characteristics. Our analysis reveals that PSC is generally biased unless the effects of confounders on the outcome and treatment are proportional to each other. Furthermore, we identify 2 sources of bias: 1) the noncollapsibility of effect measures, such as the odds ratio or hazard ratio and 2) residual confounding, as the calibrated propensity score may not possess the properties of a valid propensity score.

Cortical linear encoding and decoding of sounds: Similarities and differences between naturalistic speech and music listening.

Linear models are becoming increasingly popular to investigate brain activity in response to continuous and naturalistic stimuli. In the context of auditory perception, these predictive models can be 'encoding', when stimulus features are used to reconstruct brain activity, or 'decoding' when neural features are used to reconstruct the audio stimuli. These linear models are a central component of some brain-computer interfaces that can be integrated into hearing assistive devices (e.g., hearing aids). Such advanced neurotechnologies have been widely investigated when listening to speech stimuli but rarely when listening to music. Recent attempts at neural tracking of music show that the reconstruction performances are reduced compared with speech decoding. The present study investigates the performance of stimuli reconstruction and electroencephalogram prediction (decoding and encoding models) based on the cortical entrainment of temporal variations of the audio stimuli for both music and speech listening. Three hypotheses that may explain differences between speech and music stimuli reconstruction were tested to assess the importance of the speech-specific acoustic and linguistic factors. While the results obtained with encoding models suggest different underlying cortical processing between speech and music listening, no differences were found in terms of reconstruction of the stimuli or the cortical data. The results suggest that envelope-based linear modelling can be used to study both speech and music listening, despite the differences in the underlying cortical mechanisms.

Inclusive Fitness May Explain Some but Not All Benefits Derived from Helping Behavior in a Cooperatively Breeding Bird.

AbstractIn cooperative breeding systems, inclusive fitness theory predicts that nonbreeding helpers more closely related to the breeders should be more willing to provide costly alloparental care and thus have more impact on breeder fitness. In the red-cockaded woodpecker (Dryobates borealis), most helpers are the breeders' earlier offspring, but helpers do vary within groups in both relatedness to the breeders (some even being unrelated) and sex, and it can be difficult to parse their separate impacts on breeder fitness. Moreover, most support for inclusive fitness theory has been positive associations between relatedness and behavior rather than actual fitness consequences. We used functional linear models to evaluate the per capita effects of helpers of different relatedness on eight breeder fitness components measured for up to 41 years at three sites. In support of inclusive fitness theory, helpers more related to the breeding pair made greater contributions to six fitness components. However, male helpers made equal contributions to increasing prefledging survival regardless of relatedness. These findings suggest that both inclusive fitness benefits and other direct benefits may underlie helping behaviors in the red-cockaded woodpecker. Our results also demonstrate the application of an underused statistical approach to disentangle a complex ecological phenomenon.

Insights into the genetic architecture of Phytophthora capsici root rot resistance in chile pepper (Capsicum spp.) from multi-locus genome-wide association study.

BACKGROUND: Phytophthora root rot, a major constraint in chile pepper production worldwide, is caused by the soil-borne oomycete, Phytophthora capsici. This study aimed to detect significant regions in the Capsicum genome linked to Phytophthora root rot resistance using a panel consisting of 157 Capsicum spp. genotypes. Multi-locus genome wide association study (GWAS) was conducted using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers derived from genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS). Individual plants were separately inoculated with P. capsici isolates, 'PWB-185', 'PWB-186', and '6347', at the 4-8 leaf stage and were scored for disease symptoms up to 14-days post-inoculation. Disease scores were used to calculate disease parameters including disease severity index percentage, percent of resistant plants, area under disease progress curve, and estimated marginal means for each genotype. RESULTS: Most of the genotypes displayed root rot symptoms, whereas five accessions were completely resistant to all the isolates and displayed no symptoms of infection. A total of 55,117 SNP markers derived from GBS were used to perform multi-locus GWAS which identified 330 significant SNP markers associated with disease resistance. Of these, 56 SNP markers distributed across all the 12 chromosomes were common across the isolates, indicating association with more durable resistance. Candidate genes including nucleotide-binding site leucine-rich repeat (NBS-LRR), systemic acquired resistance (SAR8.2), and receptor-like kinase (RLKs), were identified within 0.5 Mb of the associated markers. CONCLUSIONS: Results will be used to improve resistance to Phytophthora root rot in chile pepper by the development of Kompetitive allele-specific markers (KASP®) for marker validation, genomewide selection, and marker-assisted breeding.

Exchange-correlation effects in interatomic energies for pure density functionals and their application to the molecular energy prediction.

In this proof-of-concept paper, we show how exchange-correlation effects can be simply recovered for interatomic energies within the interacting quantum atoms decomposition when local, gradient generalized, or meta-gradient generalized approximations are used in density functional theory (DFT) calculations. We also demonstrate how inhomogeneity and non-local effects can be introduced even from a pure local scheme, without resorting to any orbital information. Finally, we provide numerical evidence on a database of selected energetic molecules that this decomposition scheme can be efficiently used to build accurate models for the prediction of molecular energies from an initial "cheap" DFT calculation.

Statistical inference with large-scale trait imputation.

Recently a nonparametric method called LS-imputation has been proposed for large-scale trait imputation based on a GWAS summary dataset and a large set of genotyped individuals. The imputed trait values, along with the genotypes, can be treated as an individual-level dataset for downstream genetic analyses, including those that cannot be done with GWAS summary data. However, since the covariance matrix of the imputed trait values is often too large to calculate, the current method imposes a working assumption that the imputed trait values are identically and independently distributed, which is incorrect in truth. Here we propose a "divide and conquer/combine" strategy to estimate and account for the covariance matrix of the imputed trait values via batches, thus relaxing the incorrect working assumption. Applications of the methods to the UK Biobank data for marginal association analysis showed some improvement by the new method in some cases, but overall the original method performed well, which was explained by nearly constant variances of and mostly weak correlations among imputed trait values.

Inverse probability of treatment weighting with generalized linear outcome models for doubly robust estimation.

There are now many options for doubly robust estimation; however, there is a concerning trend in the applied literature to believe that the combination of a propensity score and an adjusted outcome model automatically results in a doubly robust estimator and/or to misuse more complex established doubly robust estimators. A simple alternative, canonical link generalized linear models (GLM) fit via inverse probability of treatment (propensity score) weighted maximum likelihood estimation followed by standardization (the g $$ g $$ -formula) for the average causal effect, is a doubly robust estimation method. Our aim is for the reader not just to be able to use this method, which we refer to as IPTW GLM, for doubly robust estimation, but to fully understand why it has the doubly robust property. For this reason, we define clearly, and in multiple ways, all concepts needed to understand the method and why it is doubly robust. In addition, we want to make very clear that the mere combination of propensity score weighting and an adjusted outcome model does not generally result in a doubly robust estimator. Finally, we hope to dispel the misconception that one can adjust for residual confounding remaining after propensity score weighting by adjusting in the outcome model for what remains 'unbalanced' even when using doubly robust estimators. We provide R code for our simulations and real open-source data examples that can be followed step-by-step to use and hopefully understand the IPTW GLM method. We also compare to a much better-known but still simple doubly robust estimator.

A Bayesian non-stationary heteroskedastic time series model for multivariate critical care data.

We propose a multivariate GARCH model for non-stationary health time series by modifying the observation-level variance of the standard state space model. The proposed model provides an intuitive and novel way of dealing with heteroskedastic data using the conditional nature of state-space models. We follow the Bayesian paradigm to perform the inference procedure. In particular, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to obtain samples from the resultant posterior distribution. We use the forward filtering backward sampling algorithm to efficiently obtain samples from the posterior distribution of the latent state. The proposed model also handles missing data in a fully Bayesian fashion. We validate our model on synthetic data and analyze a data set obtained from an intensive care unit in a Montreal hospital and the MIMIC dataset. We further show that our proposed models offer better performance, in terms of WAIC than standard state space models. The proposed model provides a new way to model multivariate heteroskedastic non-stationary time series data. Model comparison can then be easily performed using the WAIC.

The prediction limits of the National Adult Reading Test and its abbreviated and international variants.

OBJECTIVE: Premorbid tests estimate cognitive ability prior to neurological condition onset or brain injury. Tests requiring oral pronunciation of visually presented irregular words, such as the National Adult Reading Test (NART), are commonly used due to robust evidence that word familiarity is well-preserved across a range of neurological conditions and correlates highly with intelligence. Our aim is to examine the prediction limits of NART variants to assess their ability to accurately estimate premorbid IQ. METHOD: We examine the prediction limits of 13 NART variants, calculate which IQ classification system categories are reachable in principle, and consider the proportion of the adult population in the target country falling outside the predictable range. RESULTS: Many NART variants cannot reach higher or lower IQ categories due to floor/ceiling effects and inherent limitations of linear regression (used to convert scores to predicted IQ), restricting clinical accuracy in evaluating premorbid ability (and thus the magnitude of impairment). For some variants this represents a sizeable proportion of the target population. CONCLUSIONS: Since both higher and lower IQ categories are unreachable in principle, we suggest that future NART variants consider polynomial or broken-stick fitting (or similar methods) and suggest that prediction limits should be routinely reported.

Overcoming denominator problems in refugee settings with fragmented electronic records for health and immigration data: a prediction-based approach.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies in refugee settings are often challenged by the denominator problem, i.e. lack of population at risk data. We develop an empirical approach to address this problem by assessing relationships between occupancy data in refugee centres, number of refugee patients in walk-in clinics, and diseases of the digestive system. METHODS: Individual-level patient data from a primary care surveillance system (PriCarenet) was matched with occupancy data retrieved from immigration authorities. The three relationships were analysed using regression models, considering age, sex, and type of centre. Then predictions for the respective data category not available in each of the relationships were made. Twenty-one German on-site health care facilities in state-level registration and reception centres participated in the study, covering the time period from November 2017 to July 2021. RESULTS: 445 observations ("centre-months") for patient data from electronic health records (EHR, 230 mean walk-in clinics visiting refugee patients per month and centre; standard deviation sd: 202) of a total of 47.617 refugee patients were available, 215 for occupancy data (OCC, mean occupancy of 348 residents, sd: 287), 147 for both (matched), leaving 270 observations without occupancy (EHR-unmatched) and 40 without patient data (OCC-unmatched). The incidence of diseases of the digestive system, using patients as denominators in the different sub-data sets were 9.2% (sd: 5.9) in EHR, 8.8% (sd: 5.1) when matched, 9.6% (sd: 6.4) in EHR- and 12% (sd 2.9) in OCC-unmatched. Using the available or predicted occupancy as denominator yielded average incidence estimates (per centre and month) of 4.7% (sd: 3.2) in matched data, 4.8% (sd: 3.3) in EHR- and 7.4% (sd: 2.7) in OCC-unmatched. CONCLUSIONS: By modelling the ratio between patient and occupancy numbers in refugee centres depending on sex and age, as well as on the total number of patients or occupancy, the denominator problem in health monitoring systems could be mitigated. The approach helped to estimate the missing component of the denominator, and to compare disease frequency across time and refugee centres more accurately using an empirically grounded prediction of disease frequency based on demographic and centre typology. This avoided over-estimation of disease frequency as opposed to the use of patients as denominators.

A framework for longitudinal latent factor modelling of treatment response in clinical trials with applications to Psoriatic Arthritis and Rheumatoid Arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical trials involve the collection of a wealth of data, comprising multiple diverse measurements performed at baseline and follow-up visits over the course of a trial. The most common primary analysis is restricted to a single, potentially composite endpoint at one time point. While such an analytical focus promotes simple and replicable conclusions, it does not necessarily fully capture the multi-faceted effects of a drug in a complex disease setting. Therefore, to complement existing approaches, we set out here to design a longitudinal multivariate analytical framework that accepts as input an entire clinical trial database, comprising all measurements, patients, and time points across multiple trials. METHODS: Our framework composes probabilistic principal component analysis with a longitudinal linear mixed effects model, thereby enabling clinical interpretation of multivariate results, while handling data missing at random, and incorporating covariates and covariance structure in a computationally efficient and principled way. RESULTS: We illustrate our approach by applying it to four phase III clinical trials of secukinumab in Psoriatic Arthritis (PsA) and Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA). We identify three clinically plausible latent factors that collectively explain 74.5% of empirical variation in the longitudinal patient database. We estimate longitudinal trajectories of these factors, thereby enabling joint characterisation of disease progression and drug effect. We perform benchmarking experiments demonstrating our method's competitive performance at estimating average treatment effects compared to existing statistical and machine learning methods, and showing that our modular approach leads to relatively computationally efficient model fitting. CONCLUSION: Our multivariate longitudinal framework has the potential to illuminate the properties of existing composite endpoint methods, and to enable the development of novel clinical endpoints that provide enhanced and complementary perspectives on treatment response.

Relative importance of selected predictors of health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL) among U.S. adults.

PURPOSE: Many factors have been associated with health-related quality of life (HRQOL), and researchers often have tried to rank these contributing factors. Variable importance quantifies the net independent contribution of each individual predictor in a set of predictors to the prediction accuracy of the outcome. This study assessed relative importance (RI) of selected contributing factors to respondents' physically unhealthy days (PUD), mentally unhealthy days (MUD), activity limitation days (ALD), and EuroQol EQ-5D index derived from the Healthy Days measures (dEQ-5D). METHODS: Using data from the 2021 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Systems (BRFSS), we estimated the RI of seven socio-demographics and seventeen chronic conditions and risk behaviors. A variable's importance was measured as the average increase in the coefficient of determination after adding the variable to all possible sub-models. RESULTS: After controlling for socio-demographics, arthritis and no physical activity were the most important variables for PUD with a RI of 10.5 and 10.4, respectively, followed by depression (RI = 8.5) and COPD (RI = 8.3). Depression was the most important variable for MUD with RI = 23.0 while all other 16 predictors had a RI < 7.0. Similar results were observed for ALD and dEQ-5D: depression was the most important predictor (RI = 16.3 and 15.2, respectively), followed by no physical activity, arthritis, and COPD (RI ranging from 7.1 to 9.2). CONCLUSION: This study quantified and ranked selected contributing factors of HRQOL. Results of this analysis also can be used to validate HRQOL measures based on domain knowledge of HRQOL.

Factors influencing speech improvement following maxillary complete-arch implant-supported restorations: A retrospective study.

OBJECTIVE: This study explored factors affecting speech improvement in patients with an edentulous maxilla after the delivery of a complete-arch implant-supported fixed dental prosthesis (IFDP). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients who had received IFDP for edentulous maxilla were enrolled, and various potential speech improvement-related factors were considered, including patient demographics, anterior residual bone volume, preoperative facial features, preoperative acoustic parameters, and adaptation time. Acoustic analysis and perceptual ratings were used to assess three fricatives [s], [f], and [ɕ]. Correlation and regression analyses were conducted to assess the association between changes in fricatives and potential factors (α = .05). RESULTS: The study included 50 patients (18 females and 32 males, aged 50.62 ± 15.71 years, range 19-76). Significant correlations were found among the change in the center of gravity (ΔCoG) of [s] and anterior residual bone volume, zygomatic implants number and proportion (p < .05). These correlations were largely mirrored in the perceptual score (ΔPS) changes. After controlling for age, sex, preoperative acoustic parameters, and adaptation time, the ΔCoG and ΔPS of fricatives were mainly correlated with the anterior residual bone volume, preoperative acoustic parameters, and adaptation time. CONCLUSION: Speech improvements post-IFDP delivery are mainly related to preoperative speech characteristics, anterior residual bone volume, and adaptation time. The residual bone volume's impact on consonants varies with specific articulatory gestures. This study provides insights into forecasting speech outcomes following IFDP restoration and provides recommendations and methods for data collection in developing future prediction models.

Medical costs of Swedish nursing home residents at the end of life: a retrospective observational registry study.

BACKGROUND: There are many studies of medical costs in late life in general, but nursing home residents' needs and the costs of external medical services and interventions outside of nursing home services are less well described. METHODS: We examined the direct medical costs of nursing home residents in their last year of life, as well as limited to the period of stay in the nursing home, adjusted for age, sex, Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS), and diagnosis of dementia or advanced cancer. This was an observational retrospective study of registry data from all diseased nursing home residents during the years 2015-2021 using healthcare consumption data from the Stockholm Regional Council, Sweden. T tests, Wilcoxon rank sum tests and chi-square tests were used for comparisons of groups, and generalized linear models (GLMs) were constructed for univariable and multivariable linear regressions of health cost expenditures to calculate risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). RESULTS: According to the adjusted (multivariable) models for the 38,805 studied nursing home decedents, when studying the actual period of stay in nursing homes, we found significantly greater medical costs associated with male sex (RR 1.29 (1.25-1.33), p < 0.0001) and younger age (65-79 years vs. ≥90 years: RR 1.92 (1.85-2.01), p < 0.0001). Costs were also greater for those at risk of frailty according to the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) (intermediate risk: RR 3.63 (3.52-3.75), p < 0.0001; high risk: RR 7.84 (7.53-8.16), p < 0.0001); or with advanced cancer (RR 2.41 (2.26-2.57), p < 0.0001), while dementia was associated with lower medical costs (RR 0.54 (0.52-0.55), p < 0.0001). The figures were similar when calculating the costs for the entire last year of life (regardless of whether they were nursing home residents throughout the year). CONCLUSIONS: Despite any obvious explanatory factors, male and younger residents had higher medical costs at the end of life than women. Having a risk of frailty or a diagnosis of advanced cancer was strongly associated with higher costs, whereas a dementia diagnosis was associated with lower external, medical costs. These findings could lead us to consider reimbursement models that could be differentiated based on the observed differences.

Effect of Temperature and Precipitation on Acute Appendicitis Incidence in Seoul: A Time Series Regression Analysis.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to investigate the relationship between meteorological factors, specifically temperature and precipitation, and the incidence of appendicitis in Seoul, South Korea. METHODS: Using data from the National Health Insurance Service spanning 2010-2020, the study analyzed 165,077 appendicitis cases in Seoul. Time series regression modeling with distributed-lag non-linear models was employed. RESULTS: Regarding acute appendicitis and daily average temperature, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) showed an increasing trend from approximately - 10 °C to 10 °C. At temperatures above 10 °C, the increase was more gradual. The IRR approached a value close to 1 at temperatures below - 10 °C and above 30 °C. Both total and complicated appendicitis exhibited similar trends. Increased precipitation was negatively associated with the incidence of total acute appendicitis around the 50 mm/day range, but not with complicated appendicitis. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that environmental factors, especially temperature, may play a role in the occurrence of appendicitis. This research underscores the potential health implications of global climate change and the need for further studies to understand the broader impacts of environmental changes on various diseases.

Integrated analysis of remote sensing with meteorological and health data for allergic rhinitis forecasting in Tianjin.

Long time series of vegetation monitoring can be carried out by remote sensing data, the level of urban greening is objectively described, and the spatial characteristics of plant pollen are indirectly understood. Pollen is the main allergen in patients with seasonal allergic rhinitis. Meteorological factors affect the release and diffusion of pollen. Therefore, studying of the complex relationship between meteorological factors and allergic rhinitis is essential for effective prevention and treatment of the disease. In this study, we leverage remote sensing data for a comprehensive decade-long analysis of urban greening in Tianjin, which exhibits an annual increase in vegetative cover of 0.51 per annum, focusing on its impact on allergic rhinitis through changes in pollen distribution. Utilizing high-resolution imagery, we quantify changes in urban Fractional Vegetation Coverage (FVC) and its correlation with pollen types and allergic rhinitis cases. Our analysis reveals a significant correlation between FVC trends and pollen concentrations, with a surprising value of 0.71, highlighting the influence of urban greenery on allergenic pollen levels. We establish a robust connection between the seasonal patterns of pollen outbreaks and allergic rhinitis consultations, with a noticeable increase in consultations during high pollen seasons. our findings indicate a higher allergenic potential of herbaceous compared to woody vegetation. This nuanced understanding underscores the importance of pollen sensitivity, alongside concentration, in driving allergic rhinitis incidents. Utilizing a Generalized Linear Model, significant features influencing the number of visits for allergic rhinitis (P < 0.05) were identified. Both GLM and LSTM models were employed to forecast the visitation volumes for rhinitis during the spring and summer-autumn of 2022. Upon validation, it was found that the R² values between the simulated and actual values for both GLM and LSTM models surpassed the 95% confidence threshold. Moreover, the R² values for the summer-autumn seasons (GLM: 0.56, LSTM: 0.72) were higher than those for spring (GLM: 0.22, LSTM: 0.47). Comparing the errors between the simulated and actual values of GLM and LSTM models, LSTM exhibited higher simulation precision in both spring and summer-autumn seasons, demonstrating superior simulation performance. Overall, our study pioneers the integration of remote sensing with meteorological and health data for allergic rhinitis forecasting. This integrative approach provides valuable insights for public health planning, particularly in urban settings, and lays the groundwork for advanced, location-specific allergenic pollen forecasting and mitigation strategies.

The Relationship Between Rates of Cannabis Use and Covid-19 Infection Rates During the Pandemic: An Analysis of Canada's National Cannabis Survey.

Background: The well-documented relationship between mental health and substance use is corroborated by recent research on the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on cannabis use behavior. Social isolation, anxiety, depression, stress, and boredom are all linked to the greater prevalence of cannabis and other substance use. Objectives: To better understand the relationship between infection rates in Canada and cannabis use behavior, this research examines the prevalence and frequency of cannabis use across health regions in all 10 provinces at the height of the pandemic. Methods: Our analyses linked data from the National Cannabis Survey with Covid-19 case rates and cannabis availability through legal retail outlets at the end of 2020, 2 years after cannabis legalization came into effect. Hierarchical generalized linear models were employed, controlling for age, gender, SES, mental health, the number of cannabis stores per square kilometer, and prevalence of cannabis use in each health region prior to the pandemic. Results: Even after controlling for other predictors, our models show that those residing where infection rates are higher are more likely to use cannabis and use it more often. Conclusions: The findings of this study support investing in better-targeted harm reduction measures in areas hit hardest by the pandemic to address contributing societal conditions. The implications are noteworthy for drug policy observers in North America and other global jurisdictions pursuing evidence-based public health approaches to regulating cannabis and other substance use.