ABSTRACT
Overconfidence, a widely observed cognitive bias, has been linked to increased gambling motivations and behaviors. However, previous studies have largely overlooked overconfidence under a social comparison context, known as overplacement, i.e., the tendency of individuals to believe that they are better than their similar peers. In the present study, we tested the effect of overplacement on gambling motivations and behaviors though a Pilot Survey of Chinese college students (N = 129) and a Field Survey of Chinese Macao casino gamblers (N = 733). Our results revealed a double-edged sword effect of overplacement: Serving as a risk factor, evaluating one self's earning ability as higher than others was linked to more gambling motivations (ß = 0.18, p = .005) and frequency (ß = 0.18, p = .004); Serving as a protective factor, evaluating oneself as happier than others was linked to less gambling motivations (ß = - 0.32, p < .001) and problem behaviors (ß = - 0.26, p < .001). These findings expand the relationship between overconfidence and gambling from a cognitive bias perspective to a social comparison perspective. Our study not only revealed a typical profile of gambling motivations and behaviors among different demographic groups in Chinese casino gamblers, but also highlighted the importance of considering social factors in the study of the psychological mechanisms of gambling.
ABSTRACT
We consider the topic of arrogance from a cross-disciplinary viewpoint. To stimulate further research, we suggest three types of arrogance (individual, comparative, and antagonistic) and six components contributing to them, each logically related to the next. The components progress from imperfect knowledge and abilities to an unrealistic assessment of them, an unwarranted attitude of superiority over other people, and related derisive behavior. Although each component presumably is present to some degree when the next one operates, causality might flow between components in either direction. The classification of components of arrogance should reduce miscommunication among researchers, as the relevant concepts and mechanisms span cognitive, motivational, social, and clinical domains and literatures. Arrogance is an important concept warranting further study for both theoretical and practical reasons, in both psychopathology and normal social interaction. Everyone seems to have qualities of arrogance to some degree, and we consider the importance of arrogance on a spectrum. We contend that humankind can benefit from a better understanding of the cognitive limitations and motivational biases that, operating together, appear to contribute to arrogance. We bring together information and questions that might lead to an invigorating increase in the rate and quality of cross-disciplinary research on arrogance.
ABSTRACT
Three studies find evidence that positive affect reduces comparative overconfidence (overplacement). This occurs because positive affect attenuates focalism via decreasing people's tendency to overweight information regarding themselves in the light of information concerning others. Specifically, Study 1 provides evidence that positive affect leads to more realistic estimates of comparative ability and that other-focus partially mediates this effect. Then, Study 2 provides causal evidence that positive affect independently influences other-focus and that other-focus, in turn, influences overplacement. Additionally, Study 2 uses an indirect measure of focalism to better capture this attentional process. Finally, Study 3 explores the influence of negative affect on overplacement. In addition, each study finds that positive affect does not influence overconfidence regarding participant's raw performances (overestimation) as this type of overconfidence is not dependent on self-other comparisons.
Subject(s)
Affect , Self Concept , Attention , Female , Humans , Male , Young AdultABSTRACT
This research investigated how different forms of overconfidence correlate with age. Contrary to stereotypes that young people are more overconfident, the results provide little evidence that overestimation of one's performance or overplacement of one's performance relative to that of others is correlated with age. Instead, the results suggest that precision in judgment (confidence that one knows the truth) increases with age. This result is strongest for probabilistic elicitations, and not present in quantile elicitations or reported confidence intervals. The results suggest that a lifetime of experience, rather than leading to better calibration, instead may increase our confidence that we know what we're talking about.