Developing the agroecological niche in Nicaragua: The roles of knowledge flows and intermediaries.

Supporting transitions to sustainable, resilient agri-food systems is important to ensure stable food supply in the face of growing climate extremes. Agroecology, or diversified farming systems based on ecological principles, can contribute to such systems. Based on a qualitative case study of Nicaragua, a forerunner in agroecology, this paper unpacks an ongoing transition to agroecology, focusing on how the transition has been shaped by knowledge flows and intermediary actors. Using a niche development framework based on knowledge processes, we analyze the growth of the agroecological niche in Nicaragua over three phases of niche development. The findings show how knowledge processes' emphases have shifted over time, as have functions enacted by intermediaries. Dedicated, diversified intermediaries have been key in creating momentum for agroecology, as have individual actors moving between niche and regime. Agency in niche development has come from both niche and regime actors. Finally, we find that Nicaragua's transition to agroecology has been ambiguous: While the niche has succeeded in changing the mainstream selection environment to its favor in some arenas, transition dynamics lag in others. Drawing lessons from this ambiguity, we suggest entry points for broader systems change, such as market stimulation, value chain development, phase-out policies, and supportive policy in related arenas. We also point out possible actions for niche actors such as integration of financial and commercial actors into niches and creation of dedicated market-focused intermediaries. Our results provide evidence of an ongoing transition and action points for supporting niche development in (sustainable agri-food) transitions around the globe.

Early warning signals observed in motor activity preceding mood state change in bipolar disorder.

INTRODUCTION: Alterations in motor activity are well-established symptoms of bipolar disorder, and time series of motor activity can be considered complex dynamical systems. In such systems, early warning signals (EWS) occur in a critical transition period preceding a sudden shift (tipping point) in the system. EWS are statistical observations occurring due to a system's declining ability to maintain homeostasis when approaching a tipping point. The aim was to identify critical transition periods preceding bipolar mood state changes. METHODS: Participants with a validated bipolar diagnosis were included to a one-year follow-up study, with repeated assessments of the participants' mood. Motor activity was recorded continuously by a wrist-worn actigraph. Participants assessed to have relapsed during follow-up were analyzed. Recognized EWS features were extracted from the motor activity data and analyzed by an unsupervised change point detection algorithm, capable of processing multi-dimensional data and developed to identify when the statistical property of a time series changes. RESULTS: Of 49 participants, four depressive and four hypomanic/manic relapses among six individuals occurred, recording actigraphy for 23.8 ± 0.2 h/day, for 39.8 ± 4.6 days. The algorithm detected change points in the time series and identified critical transition periods spanning 13.5 ± 7.2 days. For depressions 11.4 ± 1.8, and hypomania/mania 15.6 ± 10.2 days. CONCLUSION: The change point detection algorithm seems capable of recognizing impending mood episodes in continuous flowing data streams. Hence, we present an innovative method for forecasting approaching relapses to improve the clinical management of bipolar disorder.

Adoption of C-reactive protein rapid tests for the management of acute childhood infections in hospitals in the Netherlands and England: a comparative health systems analysis.

BACKGROUND: The adoption of C-reactive protein point-of-care tests (CRP POCTs) in hospitals varies across Europe. We aimed to understand the factors that contribute to different levels of adoption of CRP POCTs for the management of acute childhood infections in two countries. METHODS: Comparative qualitative analysis of the implementation of CRP POCTs in the Netherlands and England. The study was informed by the non-adoption, abandonment, spread, scale-up, and sustainability (NASSS) framework. Data were collected through document analysis and qualitative interviews with stakeholders. Documents were identified by a scoping literature review, search of websites, and through the stakeholders. Stakeholders were sampled purposively initially, and then by snowballing. Data were analysed thematically. RESULTS: Forty-one documents resulted from the search and 46 interviews were conducted. Most hospital healthcare workers in the Netherlands were familiar with CRP POCTs as the tests were widely used and trusted in primary care. Moreover, although diagnostics were funded through similar Diagnosis Related Group reimbursement mechanisms in both countries, the actual funding for each hospital was more constrained in England. Compared to primary care, laboratory-based CRP tests were usually available in hospitals and their use was encouraged in both countries because they were cheaper. However, CRP POCTs were perceived as useful in some hospitals of the two countries in which the laboratory could not provide CRP measures 24/7 or within a short timeframe, and/or in emergency departments where expediting patient care was important. CONCLUSIONS: CRP POCTs are more available in hospitals in the Netherlands because of the greater familiarity of Dutch healthcare workers with the tests which are widely used in primary care in their country and because there are more funding constraints in England. However, most hospitals in the Netherlands and England have not adopted CRP POCTs because the alternative CRP measurements from the hospital laboratory are available in a few hours and at a lower cost.

A systems approach to managing the risk of healthcare acquired infection in an acute hospital setting supported by human factors ergonomics, data science, data governance and AI.

Innovative approaches are needed for managing risk and system change in healthcare. This paper presents a case study of a project that took place over two years, taking a systems approach to managing the risk of healthcare acquired infection in an acute hospital setting, supported by an Access Risk Knowledge Platform which brings together Human Factors Ergonomics, Data Science, Data Governance and AI expertise. Evidence for change including meeting notes and use of the platform were studied. The work on the project focused on first systematically building a rich picture of the current situation from a transdisciplinary perspective. This allowed for understanding risk in context and developing a better capability to support enterprise risk management and accountability. From there a linking of operational and risk data took place which led to mapping of the risk pattern in the hospital.

Innovative ways of supporting the processes for managing risk, developing accountability and building resilience and system change in healthcare are needed.This paper presents a study that took place over two years, taking a systems approach to managing the risk of healthcare acquired infection in an acute hospital setting, supported by Human Factors Ergonomics, Data Science, Data Governance and AI.The work focused on systematically building a proactive capability to understand all data sources and harness their ability to support the proactive management of the risk of healthcare acquired infection.

Systems and Methods for Transformation and Degradation Analysis.

Modern concepts in irreversible thermodynamics are applied to system transformation and degradation analyses. Phenomenological entropy generation (PEG) theorem is combined with the Degradation-Entropy Generation (DEG) theorem for instantaneous multi-disciplinary, multi-scale, multi-component system characterization. A transformation-PEG theorem and space materialize with system and process defining elements and dimensions. The near-100% accurate, consistent results and features in recent publications demonstrating and applying the new TPEG methods to frictional wear, grease aging, electrochemical power system cycling-including lithium-ion battery thermal runaway-metal fatigue loading and pump flow are collated herein, demonstrating the practicality of the new and universal PEG theorem and the predictive power of models that combine and utilize both theorems. The methodology is useful for design, analysis, prognostics, diagnostics, maintenance and optimization.

Systems analysis of the effects of the 2014-16 Ebola crisis on WHO-reporting nations' policy adaptations and 2020-21 COVID-19 response: a systematized review.

BACKGROUND: Recent case studies indicate that the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak, one of the worst pre-2020 global biological catastrophes in modern history, helped some nations to better prepared their responses for the COVID-19 pandemic. While such national case studies explore how specific nations applied EVD-related policies in their domestic battle against the COVID-19 pandemic, there is no known study that assesses how many WHO nations learned from the West African crisis and to what scale. OBJECTIVE: Applying the policy legacies analytical framework and a systematized literature review, this research examines how prior policy experiences with the 2014-16 EVD crisis as a large-scale emergent outbreak helped to inform and to condition WHO nations to proactively prepare their national policies and health systems for future threats, including ultimately COVID-19. METHODS: A systematized literature review of 803 evaluated sources assesses to what extent Ebola-affected and non-affected nations directly modified governmental health systems in relation to this warning. The study further evaluates how nations with documented Ebola-related changes fared during COVID-19 compared to nations that did not. We present a categorical theoretical framework that allows for classifying different types of national response activities (termed conditioned learning). RESULTS: Ten (90.9%) of 11 nations that were affected by 2014-16 Ebola crisis have documented evidence of repurposing their EVD-related policies to fight COVID-19. 164 (70.0%) of 234 non-EVD-affected nations had documented evidence of specifically adapting national systems to incorporate policy recommendations developed from the 2014-16 crisis, which informed their COVID-19 responses in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The shock of 2014-16 EVD outbreak affected most nations around the world, whether they experienced Ebola cases. We further develop a categorical framework that helps characterised nations previous experiences with this biological catastrophe, providing a means to analyse to what extent that individual nations learned and how these EVD-related changes helped inform their COVID-19 response. Nations that demonstrated EVD-related conditioned learning nations tended to have more stringent COVID-19 responses before April 2020 and utilized documented response mechanisms developed out of the West African crisis.

"We should be resourcing their liberation:" a qualitative formative study to guide introduction of a systems engineering intervention at a King County, WA juvenile detention center clinic.

BACKGROUND: There are ongoing efforts to eliminate juvenile detention in King County, WA. An essential element of this work is effectively addressing the health needs of youth who are currently detained to improve their wellbeing and reduce further contact with the criminal legal system. This formative study sought to inform adaptation and piloting of an evidence-based systems engineering strategy - the Systems Analysis and Improvement Approach (SAIA) - in a King County juvenile detention center clinic to improve quality and continuity of healthcare services. Our aims were to describe the priority health needs of young people who are involved in Washington's criminal legal system and the current system of healthcare for young people who are detained. METHODS: We conducted nine individual interviews with providers serving youth. We also obtained de-identified quantitative summary reports of quality improvement discussions held between clinic staff and 13 young people who were detained at the time of data collection. Interview transcripts were analyzed using deductive and inductive coding and quantitative data were used to triangulate emergent themes. RESULTS: Providers identified three priority healthcare cascades for detention-based health services-mental health, substance use, and primary healthcare-and reported that care for these concerns is often introduced for the first time in detention. Interviewees classified incarceration itself as a health hazard, highlighting the paradox of resourcing healthcare quality improvement interventions in an inherently harmful setting. Fractured communication and collaboration across detention- and community-based entities drives systems-level inefficiencies, obstructs access to health and social services for marginalized youth, and fragments the continuum of care for young people establishing care plans while detained in King County. 31% of youth self-reported receiving episodic healthcare prior to detention, 15% reported never having medical care prior to entering detention, and 46% had concerns about finding healthcare services upon release to the community. CONCLUSIONS: Systems engineering interventions such as the SAIA may be appropriate and feasible approaches to build systems thinking across and between services, remedy systemic challenges, and ensure necessary information sharing for care continuity. However, more information is needed directly from youth to draw conclusions about effective pathways for healthcare quality improvement.

Optimizing naloxone distribution to prevent opioid overdose fatalities: results from piloting the Systems Analysis and Improvement Approach within syringe service programs.

BACKGROUND: Opioid overdose fatalities are preventable with timely administration of naloxone, an opioid antagonist, during an opioid overdose event. Syringe service programs have pioneered naloxone distribution for potential bystanders of opioid overdose. The objective of this study was to pilot test a multi-component implementation strategy-the systems analysis and improvement approach for naloxone (SAIA-Naloxone)-with the goal of improving naloxone distribution by syringe service programs. METHODS: Two syringe service programs participated in a 6-month pilot of SAIA-Naloxone, which included (1) analyzing program data to identify gaps in the naloxone delivery cascade, (2) flow mapping to identify causes of attrition and brainstorm programmatic changes for improvement, and (3) conducting continuous quality improvement to test and assess whether modifications improve the cascade. We conducted an interrupted time series analysis using 52 weeks of data before and 26 weeks of data after initiating SAIA-Naloxone. Poisson regression was used to evaluate the association between SAIA-Naloxone and the weekly number of participants receiving naloxone and number of naloxone doses distributed. RESULTS: Over the course of the study, 11,107 doses of naloxone were distributed to 6,071 participants. Through SAIA-Naloxone, syringe service programs prioritized testing programmatic modifications to improve data collection procedures, proactively screen and identify naloxone-naïve participants, streamline naloxone refill systems, and allow for secondary naloxone distribution. SAIA-Naloxone was associated with statistically significant increases in the average number of people receiving naloxone per week (37% more SPP participants; 95% CI, 12% to 67%) and average number of naloxone doses distributed per week (105% more naloxone doses; 95% CI, 79% to 136%) beyond the underlying pre-SAIA-Naloxone levels. These initial increases were extended by ongoing positive changes over time (1.6% more SSP participants received naloxone and 0.3% more naloxone doses were distributed in each subsequent week compared to the weekly trend in the pre-SAIA Naloxone period). CONCLUSIONS: SAIA-Naloxone has strong potential for improving naloxone distribution from syringe service programs. These findings are encouraging in the face of the worsening opioid overdose crisis in the United States and support testing SAIA-Naloxone in a large-scale randomized trial within syringe service programs.

Adoption of C-reactive protein point-of-care tests for the management of acute childhood infections in primary care in the Netherlands and England: a comparative health systems analysis.

BACKGROUND: The use of point of care (POC) tests varies across Europe, but research into what drives this variability is lacking. Focusing on CRP POC tests, we aimed to understand what factors contribute to high versus low adoption of the tests, and also to explore whether they are used in children. METHODS: We used a comparative qualitative case study approach to explore the implementation of CRP POC tests in the Netherlands and England. These countries were selected because although they have similar primary healthcare systems, the availability of CRP POC tests in General Practices is very different, being very high in the former and rare in the latter. The study design and analysis were informed by the non-adoption, abandonment, spread, scale-up and sustainability (NASSS) framework. Data were collected through a review of documents and interviews with stakeholders. Documents were identified through a scoping literature review, search of websites, and stakeholder recommendation. Stakeholders were selected purposively initially, and then by snowballing. Data were analysed thematically. RESULTS: Sixty-five documents were reviewed and 21 interviews were conducted. The difference in the availability of CRP POC tests is mainly because of differences at the wider national context level. In the two countries, early adopters of the tests advocated for their implementation through the generation of robust evidence and by engaging with all relevant stakeholders. This led to the inclusion of CRP POC tests in clinical guidelines in both countries. In the Netherlands, this mandated their reimbursement in accordance with Dutch regulations. Moreover, the prevailing better integration of health services enabled operational support from laboratories to GP practices. In England, the funding constraints of the National Health Service and the prioritization of alternative and less expensive antimicrobial stewardship interventions prevented the development of a reimbursement scheme. In addition, the lack of integration between health services limits the operational support to GP practices. In both countries, the availability of CRP POC tests for the management of children is a by-product of the test being available for adults. The tests are less used in children mainly because of concerns regarding their accuracy in this age-group. CONCLUSIONS: The engagement of early adopters combined with a more favourable and receptive macro level environment, including the role of clinical guidelines and their developers in determining which interventions are reimbursed and the operational support from laboratories to GP practices, led to the greater adoption of the tests in the Netherlands. In both countries, CRP POC tests, when available, are less used less in children. Organisations considering introducing POC tests into primary care settings need to consider how their implementation fits into the wider health system context to ensure achievable plans.

Adaptive Content Tuning of Social Network Digital Health Interventions Using Control Systems Engineering for Precision Public Health: Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Social media has emerged as an effective tool to mitigate preventable and costly health issues with social network interventions (SNIs), but a precision public health approach is still lacking to improve health equity and account for population disparities. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to (1) develop an SNI framework for precision public health using control systems engineering to improve the delivery of digital educational interventions for health behavior change and (2) validate the SNI framework to increase organ donation awareness in California, taking into account underlying population disparities. METHODS: This study developed and tested an SNI framework that uses publicly available data at the ZIP Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) level to uncover demographic environments using clustering analysis, which is then used to guide digital health interventions using the Meta business platform. The SNI delivered 5 tailored organ donation-related educational contents through Facebook to 4 distinct demographic environments uncovered in California with and without an Adaptive Content Tuning (ACT) mechanism, a novel application of the Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) method, in a cluster randomized trial (CRT) over a 3-month period. The daily number of impressions (ie, exposure to educational content) and clicks (ie, engagement) were measured as a surrogate marker of awareness. A stratified analysis per demographic environment was conducted. RESULTS: Four main clusters with distinctive sociodemographic characteristics were identified for the state of California. The ACT mechanism significantly increased the overall click rate per 1000 impressions (ß=.2187; P<.001), with the highest effect on cluster 1 (ß=.3683; P<.001) and the lowest effect on cluster 4 (ß=.0936; P=.053). Cluster 1 is mainly composed of a population that is more likely to be rural, White, and have a higher rate of Medicare beneficiaries, while cluster 4 is more likely to be urban, Hispanic, and African American, with a high employment rate without high income and a higher proportion of Medicaid beneficiaries. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed SNI framework, with its ACT mechanism, learns and delivers, in real time, for each distinct subpopulation, the most tailored educational content and establishes a new standard for precision public health to design novel health interventions with the use of social media, automation, and machine learning in a form that is efficient and equitable. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NTC04850287; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04850287.

Optimisation of urban-rural nature-based solutions for integrated catchment water management.

Nature-based solutions (NBS) have co-benefits for water availability, water quality, and flood management. However, searching for optimal integrated urban-rural NBS planning to maximise co-benefits at a catchment scale is still limited by fragmented evaluation. This study develops an integrated urban-rural NBS planning optimisation framework based on the CatchWat-SD model, which is developed to simulate a multi-catchment integrated water cycle in the Norfolk region, UK. Three rural (runoff attenuation features, regenerative farming, floodplain) and two urban (urban green space, constructed wastewater wetlands) NBS interventions are integrated into the model at a range of implementation scales. A many-objective optimisation problem with seven water management objectives to account for flow, quality and cost indicators is formulated, and the NSGAII algorithm is adopted to search for optimal NBS portfolios. Results show that rural NBS have more significant impacts across the catchment, which increase with the scale of implementation. Integrated urban-rural NBS planning can improve water availability, water quality, and flood management simultaneously, though trade-offs exist between different objectives. Runoff attenuation features and floodplains provide the greatest benefits for water availability. Regenerative farming is most effective for water quality and flood management, though it decreases water availability by up to 15% because it retains more water in the soil. Phosphorus levels are best reduced by expansion of urban green space to decrease loading on combined sewer systems, though this trades off against water availability, flood, nitrogen and suspended solids. The proposed framework enables spatial prioritisation of NBS, which may ultimately guide multi-stakeholder decision-making, bridging the urban-rural divide in catchment water management.

[Systematic analysis of liver failure accompanied with hemophagocytic syndrome in adults].

Objective: To retrospectively analyze literature reports and summarize the clinical characteristics of liver failure in patients accompanied with adult hemophagocytic syndrome (HPS). Methods: The Wanfang, CNKI, VIP, PubMed, and Ovid databases were searched for relevant literature on liver failure patients accompanied with adult HPS published from January 1980 to May 2022. The final included literature was systematically reviewed after screening. Results: There were a total of 77 liver failure cases accompanied with adult HPS, with an average age of (41.8 ± 12.5) years. The most common clinical manifestations of these cases were persistent high fever, fatigue, gastrointestinal symptoms, and severe jaundice. The imaging changes were not specific, and the most common was hepatosplenomegaly. Laboratory examination showed a significant increase in serum total bilirubin, lactate dehydrogenase, triglycerides, and soluble interleukin-2 receptor levels, as well as serum ferritin, while there was a decrease in prothrombin activity, natural killer cell activity, and hemocytopenia of two or more lineages in peripheral blood. Myelogram examination showed hemophagocytosis. Adult HPS secondary to infection was more likely to be accompanied with liver failure (55.8%), with an overall case fatality rate of 84.4%. Conclusion: Patients with liver failure accompanied with adult HPS have an extremely high mortality rate and a poor prognosis. Early diagnosis and treatment are the keys to improving the prognosis.

Systemic Approaches for Emission Reduction in Industrial Plants Based on Physical Accounting: Example for an Aluminum Smelter.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting in industrial plants usually has multiple purposes, including mandatory reporting, shareholder and stakeholder communication, developing key performance indicators (KPIs), or informing cost-effective mitigation options. Current carbon accounting systems, such as the one required by the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), ignore the system context in which emissions occur. This hampers the identification and evaluation of comprehensive mitigation strategies considering linkages between materials, energy, and emissions. Here, we propose a carbon accounting method based on multilevel material flow analysis (MFA), which aims at addressing this gap. Using a Norwegian primary aluminum production plant as an example, we analyzed the material stocks and flows within this plant for total mass flows of goods as well as substances such as aluminum and carbon. The results show that the MFA-based accounting (i) is more robust than conventional tools due to mass balance consistency and higher granularity, (ii) allows monitoring the performance of the company and defines meaningful KPIs, (iii) can be used as a basis for the EU ETS reporting and linked to internal reporting, (iv) enables the identification and evaluation of systemic solutions and resource efficiency strategies for reducing emissions, and (v) has the potential to save costs.

Drivers, uncertainties, and future scenarios of the Iranian health system.

BACKGROUND: Health promotion is an essential dimension of sustainable development in any country. It has a high degree of complexity, with numerous components interacting both inside and outside of the system, so having a systemic and forward-looking approach is essential to planning for the future. METHODS: The research has been designed based on scenario-based planning in three main stages. The data gathering was qualitative by working group meetings and compiling an importance-uncertainty questionnaire to complete the cross-impact analysis matrix. The MicMac and scenario Wizard has been used for data analysis. RESULTS: The scoping review and upstream document evaluation lead to 54 key variables for analyzing the Iranian health system (HS). The MicMac analysis ends by determining seven key variables: power, politics, and communication network; lifestyle and behavioral factors; quality of human resources training and education; environmental and occupational risk factors, payment and tariff system, and allocation pattern; support society / individuals health; and services effectiveness, especially para-clinical and outpatient ones. Finally, six main scenario spaces are depicted using Scenario Wizard. collective equity was the priority of the HS vision in the desirable scenario, consisting of the most favorable state of the uncertainties. The second, third, and fourth scenarios are also considered desirable. In the disaster scenario, which is the most pessimistic type of consistent scenario in this study, health and equity are not significant either in the social or individual dimensions. In the sixth scenario, the individual dimension of health and equity is the most critical perspective of the HS. CONCLUSIONS: Due to the unsustainability and high complexity of the Iran's HS, the development and excellence of the HS governance based on the Iran context and health advocacy improvement (applying good governance); creating sustainable financial resources and rational consumption; and human resources training and education are three main principles leading the HS to the images of the desired scenarios.

The cost of implementing the Systems Analysis and Improvement Approach for a cluster randomized trial integrating HIV testing into family planning services in Mombasa County, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Although HIV testing in family planning (FP) clinics is a promising approach for engaging women in HIV treatment and prevention services, HIV testing rates are low in FP clinics in Kenya. In 2018, a cluster randomized trial was implemented in Mombasa, Kenya applying the Systems Analysis and Improvement Approach (SAIA) to integrate HIV testing into FP services (1K24HD088229-01). We estimated the incremental costs and explored cost drivers of the FP HIV SAIA implementation in Mombasa, Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a costing evaluation from the payer perspective for the FP HIV SAIA randomized control trial. We identified relevant activities for the intervention including start-up, training, research and FP HIV SAIA. We estimated activity time burden using a time-and motion study. We derived unit costs through staff interviews and programmatic budgets. We present cost estimates for two different scenarios: as-implemented including research and projected costs for a Ministry of Health-supported intervention. All costs are reported in 2018 USD. RESULTS: For an annual program output of 36,086 HIV tests administered to new FP clients, we estimated the total annual program cost to be $91,994 with an average cost per new FP client served of $2.55. Personnel and HIV rapid testing kits comprised 55% and 21% of programmatic costs, respectively. Assuming no changes to program outputs and with efficiency gains under the MOH scenario, the estimated cost per new FP client served decreased to $1.30 with a programmatic cost reduction of 49%. CONCLUSION: FP HIV SAIA is a low-cost and flexible implementation strategy for facilitating integrated delivery of HIV testing alongside FP services. Although cost implications of the FP HIV SAIA intervention must continue to be evaluated over time, these findings provide context-specific cost data useful for budget planning and decision-making regarding intervention delivery and expansion. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered on December 15, 2016, with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02994355).

Global systemic risk and resilience for novel coronavirus in postpandemic era.

The ongoing pandemic has evolved and is posing diverse challenges for the world. Countermeasures for risks are needed to address both direct and indirect effects of disease on the healthcare system, economic and industrial sectors, governance, environment, transportation, energy, and communication systems. There are indicators of a forthcoming postpandemic era. The rethinking and reevaluation of policies adopted throughout the pandemic are ongoing to address cascading threats of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases. The first Special Issue introduced the topic. This second Special Issue describes international collaboration and innovation for pandemic risk and resilience, with a focus on future policy and operations of global systems toward a postandemic era.

Specific Factors Affecting Operating Room Efficiency: An Analysis of Case Time Estimates.

PURPOSE: Operating room (OR) efficiency has an impact on surgeon productivity and patient experience. Accuracy of case duration estimation is important to optimize OR efficiency. The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with inaccurate case time estimates in outpatient hand surgery. A better understanding of these findings may help to improve OR efficiency and scheduling. METHODS: All outpatient hand surgical cases from 2018 to 2019 were reviewed. Poorly-estimated cases (i.e., poor scheduling accuracy) were defined as those cases where the actual operative time differed from the predicted time by >50% (either quicker by >50% or slower by >50% than the predicted time). The percentages of poorly-estimated cases were analyzed, categorized, and compared by surgeon, procedure type, and scheduled case length. RESULTS: A total of 6,620 cases were identified. Of 1,107 (16.7%) cases with poorly estimated case durations, 75.2% were underestimated. There was no difference in the likelihood of poor estimation related to start time. Well-estimated cases tended to have longer scheduled case duration, but shorter realized case duration and surgical time. Our systems analysis identified specific surgeons and procedures as predictable outliers. Cases scheduled for 15-30 minutes frequently were inaccurate, whereas cases scheduled for 30-45 and 106-120 minutes had accurate estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The accuracy of case time estimations in a standard outpatient hand surgery practice is highly variable. Nearly one-fifth of outpatient hand surgery case durations are poorly estimated, and inaccurate case time estimation can be predicted based on surgeon, procedure type, and case time. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Maximizing OR efficiency should be a priority for surgeons and hospital systems. With multiple surgeries done per day, the efficiency of the OR has an impact on surgeon productivity and patient experience.

Optimal-Damage-Effectiveness Cooperative-Control Strategy for the Pursuit-Evasion Problem with Multiple Guided Missiles.

In this paper, an optimal-damage-effectiveness cooperative-control strategy based on a damage-efficiency model and a virtual-force method is proposed to solve the pursuit-evasion problem with multiple guided missiles. Firstly, different from the overly ideal assumption in the traditional pursuit-evasion problem, an optimization problem that maximizes the damage efficiency is established and solved, making the optimal-damage-effectiveness strategy more meaningful for practical applications. Secondly, a modified virtual-force method is proposed to obtain this optimal-damage-effectiveness control strategy, which solves the numerical solution challenges brought by the high-complexity damage function. Thirdly, adaptive gain is designed in this strategy based on guidance-integrated fuze technology to achieve robust maximum damage efficiency in unpredictable interception conditions. Finally, the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed strategy are verified by numerical simulations.

Incident reporting in the outdoors: a systems-based analysis of injury, illness, and psychosocial incidents in led outdoor activities in Australia.

Incident reporting systems are a fundamental component of safety management, however, most systems used in practice are not aligned with contemporary accident causation models. This article presents an analysis of a National Incident Dataset (NID) for adverse incidents occurring in the Australian Led Outdoor Activity (LOA) sector. The aim was to investigate the adverse Injury, Illness, and Psychosocial incidents reported to the NID. In total, 1657 injuries, 532 illnesses, and 146 psychosocial incidents were analysed from 357,691 program participation days. The findings show that the rate of incidents per 1000 program participant days in LOAs was 4.6 for injury, 1.5 for illness, and 0.04 for psychosocial incidents, and incident severity was predominately minor. The analysis of systemic contributory factors demonstrates that incidents in LOA are systemic in nature, with multiple levels of the LOA system identified as contributing to adverse incidents. For example, contributory factors were identified across local government (facilities), schools (communication), parents (communication), LOA management (policies and procedures), people involved in the incidents (mental and physical condition), and the environment (terrain) and equipment (clothing). This study presents an assessment of the current state of safety in the Australian LOA sector and demonstrates the utility of applying systems ergonomics methods in practice. Practitioner summary: This article presents an analysis of 1657 injury, 532 illness, and 146 psychosocial incidents occurring in the Australian Led Outdoor Activity (LOA) sector, using a systems ergonomics method. The findings demonstrate the incident charactersitics and how decisions and actions from across the system contribute to adverse incidents in LOAs.

Combining Cognitive Mapping and indigenous knowledge to improve food environments in regional New Zealand.

ISSUE ADDRESSED: Hawke's Bay has one of the highest rates of childhood obesity in New Zealand. While several initiatives exist aiming to decrease obesity through physical activity, there are few nutritional interventions. This study adopted a systems science and matauranga Maori approach to identify and target underlying drivers of rising childhood obesity and engage the community to improve the food environment. METHODS: Cognitive mapping interviews (CM) with local stakeholders (school principals, Iwi and district health board representatives, education managers and local councillors) were conducted. The aim was to map participants' mental models of the causes of rising childhood obesity and to identify key principles for engaging with the local community in a meaningful, impactful and culturally appropriate way for future action. RESULTS: Eleven interviews were conducted face-to-face and cognitive maps were constructed. Follow-up interviews were carried out online, due to COVID restrictions, to present the maps and for interviewees to make any adjustments. Four composite themes emerged through centrality and cluster analysis of the resulting cognitive maps: the importance of building in matauranga Maori (Maori knowledge and ways of being), the "hauora" of children, working with the community and integrating existing initiatives. Two contextual factors are also considered: the growing need for food security in our communities and the opportunity to start interventions in the school setting. CONCLUSION: Cognitive mapping can produce useful insights in the early stages of community engagement. The six "pou" (pillars) underscore the importance of incorporating indigenous knowledge when embarking on public health interventions, particularly around obesity and in regional communities. SO WHAT?: When designing a public health initiative with a community with a high indigenous population, indigenous knowledge should be promoted to focus on holistic health, working with the community and creating opportunities for cohesion. These founding principles will be used to structure future community actions to improve children's food environments in regional New Zealand.