The prehospital NEW score to assess septic shock in-hospital, 30-day and 90-day mortality.

BACKGROUND: The early identification of sepsis presenting a high risk of deterioration is a daily challenge to optimise patient pathway. This is all the most crucial in the prehospital setting to optimize triage and admission into the appropriate unit: emergency department (ED) or intensive care unit (ICU). We report the association between the prehospital National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2) and in-hospital, 30 and 90-day mortality of SS patients cared for in the pre-hospital setting by a mobile ICU (MICU). METHODS: Septic shock (SS) patients cared for by a MICU between 2016, April 6th and 2021 December 31st were included in this retrospective cohort study. The NEWS-2 is based on 6 physiological variables (blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature, oxygen saturation prior oxygen supplementation, and level of consciousness) and ranges from 0 to 20. The Inverse Probability Treatment Weighting (IPTW) propensity method was applied to assess the association with in-hospital, 30 and 90-day mortality. A NEWS-2 ≥ 7 threshold was chosen for increased clinical deterioration risk definition and usefulness in clinical practice based on previous reports. RESULTS: Data from 530 SS patients requiring MICU intervention in the pre-hospital setting were analysed. The mean age was 69 ± 15 years and presumed origin of sepsis was pulmonary (43%), digestive (25%) or urinary (17%) infection. In-hospital mortality rate was 33%, 30 and 90-day mortality were respectively 31% and 35%. A prehospital NEWS-2 ≥ 7 is associated with an increase in-hospital, 30 and 90-day mortality with respective RRa = 2.34 [1.39-3.95], 2.08 [1.33-3.25] and 2.22 [1.38-3.59]. Calibration statistic values for in-hospital mortality, 30-day and 90-day mortality were 0.54; 0.55 and 0.53 respectively. CONCLUSION: A prehospital NEWS-2 ≥ 7 is associated with an increase in in-hospital, 30 and 90-day mortality of septic shock patients cared for by a MICU in the prehospital setting. Prospective studies are needed to confirm the usefulness of NEWS-2 to improve the prehospital triage and orientation to the adequate facility of sepsis.

The combined use of the Charlson Comorbidity Index and National Early Warning Score 2 helps predict the prognosis of candidemia.

BACKGROUND: The National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) standardizes assessment and response to acute illnesses using vital signs. Whether NEWS2 is useful in predicting the prognosis of candidemia remains to be determined. METHODS: Our study, conducted as a rigorous and retrospective analysis, examined patients with candidemia who were hospitalized between January 2014 and December 2023. We assessed candidemia severity using the Pitt Bacteremia Score (PBS) and NEWS2, while the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was used to assess underlying medical conditions. The endpoint was all-cause mortality within 30 days of candidemia onset, ensuring comprehensive evaluation of the patient's prognosis. RESULTS: Overall, 93 patients with candidemia were included. The 30-day all-cause mortality rate was 29.0 %. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for CCI, PBS, and NEWS2 were 0.87 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.80-0.95), 0.75 (95 % CI: 0.66-0.85), and 0.92 (95 % CI: 0.87-0.97), respectively, for predicting the 30-day mortality in patients with candidemia. The AUC values for CCI combined with PBS and NEWS2 were 0.89 (95 % CI: 0.83-0.96) and 0.96 (95 % CI: 0.93-1.00) for predicting the 30-day mortality in candidemia. Among the items that were significant in the univariate analysis, multivariate analysis showed that the combination of NEWS2 ≥ 10 and CCI ≥4 was the helpful prognostic factor for 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of NEWS2 ≥ 10 and CCI ≥4 scores may be useful in predicting the risk of 30-day mortality in patients with candidemia.

Epidemiology and Severity of Medical Events for Mountain Bikers and Hikers Transported by Ambulance in Western Australia, 2015 to 2020.

INTRODUCTION: Outdoor activities offer physical and mental health benefits. However, incidents can occur requiring ambulance transport to hospital. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology and severity of traumatic and medical incidents for mountain bikers and hikers transported by ambulance within Western Australia. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of ambulance-transported mountain bikers and hikers within Western Australia from 2015 to 2020. Data were extracted from ambulance electronic patient care records. Multivariable analyses were undertaken to identify variables associated with higher patient severity based on the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2). RESULTS: A total of 610 patients required ambulance transport to hospital while mountain biking (n=329; 54%) or hiking (n = 281; 46%). Median age of mountain bikers and hikers was 38 (24-48) y and 49 (32-63) y, respectively. Paramedics reported a fracture in 92 (28%) mountain bikers and 78 (28%) hikers. The predominant injury locations for mountain bikers were upper limbs and for hikers, lower limbs. Cases were trauma related in 92% of mountain bikers and 55% of hikers. A significant association (P<0.001) between the etiology of the ambulance callout and patient severity was found. In trauma etiology cases, the frequency of medium-risk+ NEWS2 severity was 21.4%. In medical cases, the frequency of medium-risk+ severity was 40.8%. CONCLUSION: Both mountain bikers and hikers experienced incidents requiring ambulance transport to hospital. Incidents of a medical etiology had a higher clinical risk, as determined by the NEWS2 scores, regardless of activity being undertaken.

Validation of National Early Warning Score and Quick Sequential (sepsis-related) Organ Failure Assessment in acute myeloid leukaemia patients treated with intensive chemotherapy.

OBJECTIVES: Chemotherapy-induced neutropenia in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) is a risk factor for life-threatening infections. Early diagnosis and prompt interventions are associated with better outcomes, but the prediction of infection severity remains an open question. Recently, National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) scores were proposed as warning clinical instruments predicting in-hospital mortality, but their role in the haematological context is still unknown. METHODS: We retrospectively assess the predictive role of NEWS and qSOFA in a large and homogeneous cohort of adult AML patients treated with intensive chemotherapy. In a total of 1048 neutropenic episodes recorded in 334 consecutive patients, the scores were applied to predict outcomes on the same day of fever onset, and after 24 and 48 h from score calculation. RESULTS: Both NEWS and qSOFA significantly predicted death, with more accuracy on the same day (NEWS AUROC 0.984 and qSOFA AUROC 0.969) and after 24 h (NEWS AUROC 0.928 and qSOFA AUROC 0.887), while remained moderately accurate after 48 h. Furthermore, also ICU admission was accurately predicted at fever onset and after 24 h. CONCLUSIONS: Both scores were useful tools in the management of post chemotherapy neutropenic febrile AML patients.

Role of sarcopenia risk in predicting COVID-19 severity and length of hospital stay in older adults: a prospective cohort study.

Sarcopenia is more common in the elderly and causes adverse outcomes with increased morbidity and mortality. This prospective cohort study assessed the association of sarcopenia risk with the severity of COVID-19 at the time of admission and during hospitalisation and the length of hospital stay. Two hundred patients (aged ≥ 60 years) who were hospitalised for COVID-19 were enrolled using consecutive sampling between 29 December 2020 and 20 May 2021. The sarcopenia score of the patients was assessed using the Strength, Assistance in walking, Rising from a chair, Climbing stairs, and Falls questionnaire. The severity of COVID-19 was determined using the modified National Early Warning Score (m-NEWS) system for 2019 n-CoV-infected patients at admission (T1), day three (T2) and at discharge (T3). Data were analysed using SPSS, version 22 and STATA, version 14. Of the 165 patients included, thirty four (20·6 %) were at risk of sarcopenia. The length of hospital stay was slightly longer in patients with sarcopenia risk, but the difference was not significant (P = 0·600). The adjusted OR of respiratory rate (RR) > 20 /min at T1 for the sarcopenia risk group was 6·7-times higher than that for the non-sarcopenic group (P = 0·002). According to generalised estimating equations, after adjusting for confounding factors, the m-NEWS score was 5·6 units higher in patients at risk of sarcopenia (P < 0·001). Sarcopenia risk could exacerbate COVID-19 severity and increase RR at admission, as well as the need for oxygen therapy at discharge.

A novel scoring system combining Modified Early Warning Score with biomarkers of monocyte distribution width, white blood cell counts, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio to improve early sepsis prediction in older adults.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to investigate whether combining scoring systems with monocyte distribution width (MDW) improves early sepsis detection in older adults in the emergency department (ED). METHODS: In this prospective observational study, we enrolled older adults aged ≥60 years who presented with confirmed infectious diseases to the ED. Three scoring systems-namely quick sepsis-related organ failure assessment (qSOFA), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), and National Early Warning Score (NEWS), and biomarkers including MDW, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and C-reactive protein (CRP), were assessed in the ED. Logistic regression models were used to construct sepsis prediction models. RESULTS: After propensity score matching, we included 522 and 2088 patients with and without sepsis in our analysis from January 1, 2020, to September 30, 2021. NEWS ≥5 and MEWS ≥3 exhibited a moderate-to-high sensitivity and a low specificity for sepsis, whereas qSOFA score ≥2 demonstrated a low sensitivity and a high specificity. When combined with biomarkers, the NEWS-based, the MEWS-based, and the qSOFA-based models exhibited improved diagnostic accuracy for sepsis detection without CRP inclusion (c-statistics=0.842, 0.842, and 0.826, respectively). Of the three models, MEWS ≥3 with white blood cell (WBC) count ≥11 × 109/L, NLR ≥8, and MDW ≥20 demonstrated the highest diagnostic accuracy in all age subgroups (c-statistics=0.886, 0.825, and 0.822 in patients aged 60-74, 75-89, and 90-109 years, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Our novel scoring system combining MEWS with WBC, NLR, and MDW effectively detected sepsis in older adults.

Prehospital National Early Warning Score as a predictor of massive transfusion in adult trauma patients.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown that an elevated prehospital National Early Warning Score (preNEWS) is associated with increased levels of adverse outcomes in patients with trauma. However, whether preNEWS is a predictor of massive transfusion (MT) in patients with trauma is currently unknown. This study investigated the accuracy of preNEWS in predicting MT and hospital mortality among trauma patients. METHODS: We analyzed adult trauma patients who were treated and transported by emergency medical services (EMS) between January 2018 and December 2019. The main exposure was the preNEWS calculated for the scene. The primary outcome was the predictive ability for MT, and the secondary outcome was 24 h mortality. We compared the prognostic performance of preNEWS with the shock index, modified shock index, and reverse shock index, and reverse shock index multiplied by Glasgow Coma Scale in the prehospital setting. RESULTS: In total, 41,852 patients were included, and 1456 (3.5%) received MT. preNEWS showed the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for predicting MT (0.8504; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.840-0.860) and 24 h mortality (AUROC 0.873; 95% CI, 0.863-0.883). The sensitivity of preNEWS for MT was 0.755, and the specificity of preNEWS for MT was 0.793. All indicies had a high negative predictive value and low positive predictive value. CONCLUSION: preNEWS is a useful, rapid predictor for MT and 24 h mortality. Calculation of preNEWS would be helpful for making the decision at the scene such as transfer straightforward to trauma center and advanced treatment.

Predictors of outcomes in emergency department patients with suspected infections and without fulfillment of the sepsis criteria.

BACKGROUND: Data on patient characteristics and determinants of serious outcomes for acutely admitted patients with infections who do not fulfill the sepsis criteria are sparse. The study aimed to characterize acutely admitted emergency department (ED) patients with infections and a composite outcome of in-hospital mortality or transfer to the intensive care unit without fulfilling the criteria for sepsis and to examine predictors of the composite outcome. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of data from a prospective observational study of patients with suspected bacterial infection admitted to the ED between October 1, 2017 and March 31, 2018. A National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) ≥ 5 within the first 4 h in the ED was assumed to represent a sepsis-like condition with a high risk for the composite endpoint. Patients who achieved the composite outcome were grouped according to fulfillment of the NEWS2 ≥ 5 criteria. We used logistic regression analysis to estimate the unadjusted and adjusted odds ratio (OR) for the composite endpoint among patients with either NEWS2  < 5 (NEWS2-) or NEWS2  ≥ 5 (NEWS2+). RESULTS: A total of 2055 patients with a median age of 73 years were included. Of these, 198 (9.6%) achieved the composite endpoint, including 59 (29.8%) NEWS2- and 139 (70.2%) NEWS2+ patients, respectively. Diabetes (OR 2.23;1.23-4.0), a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score ≥ 2 (OR 2.57;1.37-4.79), and a Do-not-attempt-cardiopulmonary-resuscitation order (DNACPR) on admission (OR 3.70;1.75-7.79) were independent predictive variables for the composite endpoint in NEWS2- patients (goodness-of-fit test P = 0.291; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model (AUROC) = 0.72). The regression model for NEWS2+ patients revealed that a SOFA score ≥ 2 (OR 2.79; 1.59-4.91), hypothermia (OR 2.48;1.30-4.75), and DNACPR order on admission were predictive variables for the composite endpoint (goodness-of-fit test P = 0.62; AUROC for the model = 0.70). CONCLUSION: Approximately one-third of the patients with infections and serious outcomes during hospitalization did not meet the NEWS2 threshold for likely sepsis. Our study identified factors with independent predictive values for the development of serious outcomes that should be tested in future prediction models.

Application of the national early warning score (NEWS) in patients with acute aortic dissection: A case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The vital-sign monitoring strategy of patients with acute aortic dissection in the emergency department is mainly based on traditional experience. This study attempts to explore the significance of the national early warning score (NEWS) in monitoring the condition of patients with acute aortic dissection during emergency observation and to provide evidence for emergency nurses in optimal and scientific monitoring of patients. METHODS: The case-control method was used to continuously enrol patients with acute aortic dissection who had been in the emergency department; the STROBE checklist was used in this process. Based on patients' clinical deterioration, they were divided into two groups: clinical deterioration and non-clinical deterioration. The NEWS at each time point was compared by independent-samples t-test, and the predictive power of NEWS was evaluated according to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: A total of 290 patients with acute aortic dissection were included: 46 patients showed clinical deterioration and 244 did not. There were significant differences in the NEW scores of the two groups at admission time and at 12, 8, 4 and 0.5 h before clinical deterioration. The NEW scores of the clinical deterioration group showed an upward trend, while the non-clinical deterioration group showed a relatively stable trend. The NEWS can be used to predict the occurrence of clinical deterioration earlier at 4 h before clinical deterioration. Simultaneously, the patient's respiration rate and SpO2 had better predictive performance than other vital signs. CONCLUSION: The NEWS can be used to triage patients with acute aortic dissection admitted to the emergency department. Continuous use of the NEWS for monitoring can play a vital role in early warning of clinical deterioration in patients with acute aortic dissection. In clinical care, attention should also be paid when patients with acute aortic dissection have abnormal respiration rate and SpO2 .

Lactate improves the predictive ability of the National Early Warning Score 2 in the emergency department.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to compare the ability to predict 2-, 7-, 14-, and 30-day in-hospital mortality of lactate vs the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) vs the arithmetic sum of the NEWS2 plus the numerical value of lactate (NEWS2-L). METHODS: This was a prospective, multicentric, emergency department delivery, pragmatic cohort study. To determine the predictive capacity of lactate, we calculated the NEWS2 and NEWS2-L in adult patients (aged >18 years) transferred with high priority by ambulance to the emergency department in five hospitals of Castilla y Leon (Spain) between November 1, 2019, and September 30, 2020. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of each of the scales was calculated in terms of mortality for every time frame (2, 7, 14, and 30 days). We determined the cut-off point of each scale that offered highest sensitivity and specificity using the Youden index. RESULTS: A total of 1716 participants were included, and the in-hospital mortality rates at 2, 7, 14, and 30 days were of 7.8% (134 cases), 11.6% (200 cases), 14.2% (243 cases), and 17.2% (295 cases), respectively. The best cut-off point determined in the NEWS2 was 6.5 points (sensitivity of 97% and specificity of 59%), and for lactate, the cut-off point was 3.3 mmol/L (sensitivity of 79% and specificity of 72%). Finally, the combined NEWS2-L showed a cut-off point of 11.7 (sensitivity of 86% and a specificity of 85%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the NEWS2, lactate, and NEWS2-L in the validation cohort for 2-day mortality was 0.889, 0.856, and 0.923, respectively (p<0.001 in all cases). CONCLUSIONS: The new score generated, NEWS2-L, obtained better statistical results than its components (NEWS2 and lactate) separately.

National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) better predicts critical Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) illness than COVID-GRAM, a multi-centre study.

PURPOSE: Clinical scores to rapidly assess the severity illness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) could be considered of help for clinicians. Recently, a specific score (named COVID-GRAM) for severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, based on a nationwide Chinese cohort, has been proposed. We routinely applied the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to predict critical COVID-19. Aim of this study is to compare NEWS2 and COVID-GRAM score. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed data of 121 COVID-19 patients admitted in two Clinics of Infectious Diseases in the Umbria region, Italy. The primary outcome was critical COVID-19 illness defined as admission to the intensive care unit, invasive ventilation, or death. Accuracy of the scores was evaluated with the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Differences between scores were confirmed used Hanley-McNeil test. RESULTS: The NEWS2 AUROC curve measured 0.87 (standard error, SE 0.03; 95% CI 0.80-0.93; p < 0.0001). The COVID-GRAM score AUROC curve measured 0.77 (SE 0.04; 95% CI 0.68-0.85; p < 0.0001). Hanley-McNeil test showed that NEWS2 better predicted severe COVID-19 (Z = 2.03). CONCLUSIONS: The NEWS2 showed superior accuracy to COVID-GRAM score for prediction of critical COVID-19 illness.

Chloroquine nasal drops in asymptomatic & mild COVID-19: An exploratory randomized clinical trial.

Background & objectives: Chloroquine (CQN) administered as nasal drops has the potential to achieve much greater local tissue levels than with oral/systemic administration. This trial was undertaken to study the efficacy and safety profile of topical nasal administration of CQN drops in reducing viral load and preventing clinical progression in early COVID-19 infection. Methods: This randomized clinical trial was done with a sample size of 60. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) confirmed asymptomatic patients or those with mild COVID-19 illness [National Early Warning Score (NEWS) ≤4] were included. Patients were randomized in a 1:1 manner. Control arm (standard supportive treatment, n=30) was compared with intervention arm (n=30) of standard treatment plus CQN eye drops (0.03%) repurposed as nasal drops administered six times daily (0.5 ml/dose) for 10 days. Outcome measures were adverse events and adherence; clinical progression and outcomes were measured by NEWS; sequential RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values were also noted on days 0, 3, 7 and 10. Results: Nasal CQN was associated with local irritation in seven and non-compliance in one of 30 patients. Eleven patients were excluded due to enrolment error (2 - recovered; 9 - false-positive referral), and 49 patients were analyzed as per modified intention-to-treat analysis. Clinical recovery was noted as similar with 100 per cent asymptomatic by day seven in both arms. Virological outcomes also indicated similarly improving Ct values in both arms, and similar proportion of patients transitioning to non-infectivity by day 10 (controls - 19/25; nasal CQN - 15/24). Nine false-positive patients with enrolment error and day 0 RT-PCR negative were initially uninfected but had continuing COVID-19 exposure and treatment as per randomization. Patients receiving nasal CQN (n=5) demonstrated stable Ct values from day 0 to 10, while patients with no nasal CQN (n=4) demonstrated significant dip in Ct value indicating to infection (Ct<35) and infectivity (Ct<33). Interpretation & conclusions: The present study suggests to the potential of topical nasal CQN in the prevention of COVID-19 infection if administered before the infection is established. No significant differences in clinical or virological outcome were however, demonstrated in patients with mild but established illness.

Copeptin combined with National Early Warning Score for predicting survival in elderly critical ill patients at emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: Copeptin, reflecting vasopressin release, as well as the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), reflecting the severity of critical illness, might qualify for survival prediction in elderly patients with critical illness. This prospective observational study aims at assessing the predictive value of copeptin combined with NEWS on the prognosis of elderly critical ill patients at emergency department (ED). METHODS: We analyzed serum copeptin levels and the NEWS at admission to the ED in a prospective, single-center, and observational study comprising 205 elderly patients with critical illness. Death within 30 days after admission to the ED was the primary end point. RESULTS: The serum copeptin levels and the NEWS in the non-survivor patients group were higher than those in the survivor group [30.35 (14.20, 38.91) vs 17.53 (13.01, 25.20), P = 0.001 and 9.0 (7.0-10.0) vs 7.0 (6.0-8.0), P = 0.001]. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that copeptin, NEWS and copeptin combined with NEWS were all independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in elderly patients with critical illness. Copeptin, NEWS and copeptin combined with NEWS all performed well in predicting 30-day survival, with area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of 0.766 (95%CI, 0.702-0.822), 0.797 (95%CI, 0.744-0.877) and 0.854 (95%CI, 0.798-0.899) respectively. Using the Z test to compare the areas under the above three curves, copeptin combined with NEWS showed a higher predictive value for 30-day survival (P < 0.05). As we calculated, the optimal cut-off values of copeptin and NEWS using the Youden index were 19.78 pg/mL and 8.5 points, respectively. Risk stratification analysis showed that patients with both copeptin levels higher than 19.78 pg/mL and NEWS points higher than 8.5 points had the highest risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: Copeptin combined with NEWS have a stronger predictive power on the prognosis of elderly patients with critical illness at ED, comparing to either factor individually.

Predictive accuracy of enhanced versions of the on-admission National Early Warning Score in estimating the risk of COVID-19 for unplanned admission to hospital: a retrospective development and validation study.

BACKGROUND: The novel coronavirus SARS-19 produces 'COVID-19' in patients with symptoms. COVID-19 patients admitted to the hospital require early assessment and care including isolation. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and its updated version NEWS2 is a simple physiological scoring system used in hospitals, which may be useful in the early identification of COVID-19 patients. We investigate the performance of multiple enhanced NEWS2 models in predicting the risk of COVID-19. METHODS: Our cohort included unplanned adult medical admissions discharged over 3 months (11 March 2020 to 13 June 2020 ) from two hospitals (YH for model development; SH for external model validation). We used logistic regression to build multiple prediction models for the risk of COVID-19 using the first electronically recorded NEWS2 within ± 24 hours of admission. Model M0' included NEWS2; model M1' included NEWS2 + age + sex, and model M2' extends model M1' with subcomponents of NEWS2 (including diastolic blood pressure + oxygen flow rate + oxygen scale). Model performance was evaluated according to discrimination (c statistic), calibration (graphically), and clinical usefulness at NEWS2 ≥ 5. RESULTS: The prevalence of COVID-19 was higher in SH (11.0 %=277/2520) than YH (8.7 %=343/3924) with a higher first NEWS2 scores ( SH 3.2 vs YH 2.8) but similar in-hospital mortality (SH 8.4 % vs YH 8.2 %). The c-statistics for predicting the risk of COVID-19 for models M0',M1',M2' in the development dataset were: M0': 0.71 (95 %CI 0.68-0.74); M1': 0.67 (95 %CI 0.64-0.70) and M2': 0.78 (95 %CI 0.75-0.80)). For the validation datasets the c-statistics were: M0' 0.65 (95 %CI 0.61-0.68); M1': 0.67 (95 %CI 0.64-0.70) and M2': 0.72 (95 %CI 0.69-0.75) ). The calibration slope was similar across all models but Model M2' had the highest sensitivity (M0' 44 % (95 %CI 38-50 %); M1' 53 % (95 %CI 47-59 %) and M2': 57 % (95 %CI 51-63 %)) and specificity (M0' 75 % (95 %CI 73-77 %); M1' 72 % (95 %CI 70-74 %) and M2': 76 % (95 %CI 74-78 %)) for the validation dataset at NEWS2 ≥ 5. CONCLUSIONS: Model M2' appears to be reasonably accurate for predicting the risk of COVID-19. It may be clinically useful as an early warning system at the time of admission especially to triage large numbers of unplanned hospital admissions.

Use of the National Early Warning Score in community nursing: a scoping review.

People in the UK are living longer and with multi-morbidities, increasing the size, complexity and acuity of Community Nursing caseloads. Nurses visiting infrequently and inconsistently on a task-focused basis need an objective method by which to identify / quantify physical deterioration for early treatment avoiding crisis and hospital admission. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS), is the most recognised tool for identification of deterioration in acute settings but is not validated for community use. Using published frameworks for scoping review and evaluation, this study aims to explore the current evidence for use of NEWS in community settings. Although there is work to be done, particularly in terms of frequency of scoring and response, this study identifies benefits in communication and prioritisation of care as well as sensitivity, particularly in predicting poor outcomes. The identified barriers to use include integration into practice and perceived dissonance with clinical judgement.

Type of Track and Trigger system and incidence of in-hospital cardiac arrest: an observational registry-based study.

BACKGROUND: Failure to recognise and respond to patient deterioration on hospital wards is a common cause of healthcare-related harm. If patients are not rescued and suffer a cardiac arrest as a result then only around 15% will survive. Track and Trigger systems have been introduced into the NHS to improve both identification and response to such patients. This study examines the association between the type of Track & Trigger System (TTS) (National Early Warning Score (NEWS) versus non-NEWS) and the mode of TTS (paper TTS versus electronic TTS) and incidence of in-hospital ward-based cardiac arrests (IHCA) attended by a resuscitation team. METHODS: TTS type and mode was retrospectively collected at hospital level from 106 NHS acute hospitals in England between 2009 to 2015 via an organisational survey. Poisson regression and logistic regression models, adjusted for case-mix, temporal trends and seasonality were used to determine the association between TTS and hospital-level ward-based IHCA and survival rates. RESULTS: The NEWS was introduced in England in 2012 and by 2015, three-fifths of hospitals had adopted it. One fifth of hospitals had instituted an electronic TTS by 2015. Between 2009 and 2015 the incidence of IHCA fell. Introduction or use of NEWS in a hospital was associated with a reduction of 9.4% in the rate of ward-based IHCA compared to non-NEWS systems (incidence rate ratio 0.906, p < 0.001). The use of an electronic TTS was also associated with a reduction of 9.8% in the rate of IHCA compared with paper-based TTS (incidence rate ratio 0.902, p = 0.009). There was no change in hospital survival. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of standardised TTS and electronic TTS have the potential to reduce ward-based IHCA. This is likely to be via a range of mechanisms from early intervention to institution of treatment limits. The lack of association with survival may reflect the complexity of response to triggering of the afferent arm of the rapid response system.

National Early Warning Score: A survey of registered nurses' perceptions, experiences and barriers.

AIMS & OBJECTIVES: To describe registered nurses' perceptions, experiences and barriers for using the National Early Warning Score in relation to their work experience and medical affiliation. BACKGROUND: Indications of inconsistencies in adherence to the National Early Warning Score have emerged. DESIGN: Web-based questionnaire study. METHODS: The questionnaire was sent to 3,165 registered nurses working in somatic hospitals in the southern part of Sweden. Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology was adhered. RESULTS: Seventy-one per cent of the 1,044 respondents reported adherence to the National Early Warning Score guidelines recommended frequency of monitoring and 74% to the clinical response scale. The shorter the working experience, the higher the proportion of registered nurses who answered positively to the National Early Warning Score allowing them to better prioritise their care with short nursing experience. When categorising nurses according to their workplace's medical affiliation, adherence to the National Early Warning Score guidelines recommended frequency of monitoring was reported highest in surgery and orthopaedics (66%) and lowest in the cardiac high dependency unit (52%). Corresponding proportions of reported adherence to the clinical response scale were highest in orthopaedics (82%) and lowest in the cardiac high dependency unit (48%). Lack of response from the doctor was reported as one of the main reasons for not adhering to the National Early Warning Score by 50% of the registered nurse. CONCLUSION: In general, registered nurses perceived the National Early Warning Score as a useful tool, supporting their gut feeling about an unstable patient. Barriers to the National Early Warning Score were found in doctors and the most experienced registered nurses, indicating the need for resources to be focused on the adherence of these members of the healthcare team. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: In general, the registered nurses answered positively to the National Early Warning Score. We found indications that there is a need to focus resources on the adherence of the most experienced registered nurse and the doctors.

Development of the National Early Warning Score-Calcium Model for Predicting Adverse Outcomes in Patients With Acute Pancreatitis.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to develop a new model on the basis of the National Early Warning Score to predict intensive care unit admission and the mortality of patients with acute pancreatitis. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis in the emergency department were enrolled. The values of the National Early Warning Score, Modified Early Warning Score, and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis in predicting intensive care unit admission and mortality of patients with acute pancreatitis were evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 379 patients with acute pancreatitis were enrolled; 77 patients (20.3%) were admitted to the intensive care unit and 14 (3.7%) died. The National Early Warning Score and calcium level were identified as independent risk factors of intensive care unit admission. Serum calcium exhibited a moderate correlation with National Early Warning Score (r = -0.46; P < 0.001), Modified Early Warning Score (r = -0.37; P < 0.001), and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (r = -0.39; P < 0.001). A new model called National Early Warning Score-calcium was developed by combining National Early Warning Score and calcium blood test result, which had larger areas under the curve for predicting intensive care unit admission and mortality than the other 3 scoring systems. DISCUSSION: A new model developed by combining National Early Warning Score and calcium exhibited better value in predicting the prognosis of acute pancreatitis than the models involving National Early Warning Score, Modified Early Warning Score, and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis alone.

Distribution of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) in care home residents.

BACKGROUND: the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is a tool based on vital signs that aims to standardise detection of, and response to, clinical deterioration in adults. NEWS has been adopted in hospitals but not adapted for other settings. This study aimed to explore the feasibility of measuring the NEWS in care homes and describe the distribution of NEWS readings amongst care home residents. METHODS: descriptive analysis of all NEWS readings recorded in a 30-month period (2016-19) across 46 care homes in one Clinical Commissioning Group in England. Comparisons were made between measurements taken as a routine reading and those prompted by concern about acute illness. RESULTS: a total of 19,604 NEWS were recorded from 2,424 older adults (≥65 years; mean age 85). Median NEWS was 2. Two thirds (66%) of residents had a low NEWS (≤2), and 28% had a score of 0. Of the total NEWS readings, 6,277 (32%) were known to be routine readings and 2,256 (12%) were measured because of staff concerns. Median NEWS was 1 for routine and 2 for concern recordings. Overall, only 12% of NEWS were high (≥5), but a higher proportion were elevated when there were concerns about acute illness (18%), compared with routine recordings (7%). CONCLUSIONS: use of NEWS in care homes appears to be feasible. The majority of NEWS were not elevated, and the distribution of scores is consistent with other out-of-hospital settings. Further work is required to know if NEWS is triggering the most appropriate response and improving care home resident outcomes.

National Early Warning Score vs Rapid Response Team criteria-Prevalence, misclassification, and outcome.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to examine the prevalence of deviating vital parameters in general ward patients using rapid response team (RRT) criteria and National Early Warning Score (NEWS), assess exam duration, correct calculation and classification of risk score as well as mortality and adverse events. METHODS: Point prevalence study of vital parameters according to NEWS and RRT criteria of all adult patients admitted to general wards at a Scandinavian university hospital with a mature RRT. PRIMARY OUTCOME: prevalence of at-risk patients fulfilling at least one RRT criteria, total NEWS of 7 or greater or a single NEWS parameter of 3 (red NEWS). SECONDARY OUTCOMES: mortality in-hospital and within 30 days or adverse events within 24 hours. RESULTS: We assessed 598 (75%) of 798 admitted patients and examiners captured a fulfilled RRT calling criterion in 50 patients (8.4%), 36 (6.0%) had NEWS ≥ 7, 34 with a red NEWS parameter. Red NEWS occurred in 112 patients (18.7%). Secondary outcomes were fulfilled in 49 patients (8.2%). Mortality overall was 6.5% within 30 days, 1.8% in hospital. In 134 patients (22.4%) the manual calculation of score for NEWS was incorrectly performed by examiner. CONCLUSION: Even with a mature RRT in place, we captured patients with failing physiology in general wards reflecting afferent limb failure. Manual calculation of NEWS is frequently incorrect, possibly leading to misclassification of patients at risk.