Development and Validation of the American Heart Association's PREVENT Equations.

BACKGROUND: Multivariable equations are recommended by primary prevention guidelines to assess absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current equations have several limitations. Therefore, we developed and validated the American Heart Association Predicting Risk of CVD EVENTs (PREVENT) equations among US adults 30 to 79 years of age without known CVD. METHODS: The derivation sample included individual-level participant data from 25 data sets (N=3 281 919) between 1992 and 2017. The primary outcome was CVD (atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure). Predictors included traditional risk factors (smoking status, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, antihypertensive or statin use, and diabetes) and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Models were sex-specific, race-free, developed on the age scale, and adjusted for competing risk of non-CVD death. Analyses were conducted in each data set and meta-analyzed. Discrimination was assessed using the Harrell C-statistic. Calibration was calculated as the slope of the observed versus predicted risk by decile. Additional equations to predict each CVD subtype (atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure) and include optional predictors (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and hemoglobin A1c), and social deprivation index were also developed. External validation was performed in 3 330 085 participants from 21 additional data sets. RESULTS: Among 6 612 004 adults included, mean±SD age was 53±12 years, and 56% were women. Over a mean±SD follow-up of 4.8±3.1 years, there were 211 515 incident total CVD events. The median C-statistics in external validation for CVD were 0.794 (interquartile interval, 0.763-0.809) in female and 0.757 (0.727-0.778) in male participants. The calibration slopes were 1.03 (interquartile interval, 0.81-1.16) and 0.94 (0.81-1.13) among female and male participants, respectively. Similar estimates for discrimination and calibration were observed for atherosclerotic CVD- and heart failure-specific models. The improvement in discrimination was small but statistically significant when urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, hemoglobin A1c, and social deprivation index were added together to the base model to total CVD (ΔC-statistic [interquartile interval] 0.004 [0.004-0.005] and 0.005 [0.004-0.007] among female and male participants, respectively). Calibration improved significantly when the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio was added to the base model among those with marked albuminuria (>300 mg/g; 1.05 [0.84-1.20] versus 1.39 [1.14-1.65]; P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: PREVENT equations accurately and precisely predicted risk for incident CVD and CVD subtypes in a large, diverse, and contemporary sample of US adults by using routinely available clinical variables.

Optimal Screening for Predicting and Preventing the Risk of Heart Failure Among Adults With Diabetes Without Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: A Pooled Cohort Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The optimal approach to identify individuals with diabetes who are at a high risk for developing heart failure (HF) to inform implementation of preventive therapies is unknown, especially in those without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). METHODS: Adults with diabetes and no HF at baseline from 7 community-based cohorts were included. Participants without ASCVD who were at high risk for developing HF were identified using 1-step screening strategies: risk score (WATCH-DM [Weight, Age, Hypertension, Creatinine, HDL-C, Diabetes Control, QRS Duration, MI, and CABG] ≥12), NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide ≥125 pg/mL), hs-cTn (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T ≥14 ng/L; hs-cTnI ≥31 ng/L), and echocardiography-based diabetic cardiomyopathy (echo-DbCM; left atrial enlargement, left ventricular hypertrophy, or diastolic dysfunction). High-risk participants were also identified using 2-step screening strategies with a second test to identify residual risk among those deemed low risk by the first test: WATCH-DM/NT-proBNP, NT-proBNP/hs-cTn, NT-proBNP/echo-DbCM. Across screening strategies, the proportion of HF events identified, 5-year number needed to treat and number needed to screen to prevent 1 HF event with an SGLT2i (sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor) among high-risk participants, and cost of screening were estimated. RESULTS: The initial study cohort included 6293 participants (48.2% women), of whom 77.7% without prevalent ASCVD were evaluated with different HF screening strategies. At 5-year follow-up, 6.2% of participants without ASCVD developed incident HF. The 5-year number needed to treat to prevent 1 HF event with an SGLT2i among participants without ASCVD was 43 (95% CI, 29-72). In the cohort without ASCVD, high-risk participants identified using 1-step screening strategies had a low 5-year number needed to treat (22 for NT-proBNP to 37 for echo-DbCM). However, a substantial proportion of HF events occurred among participants identified as low risk using 1-step screening approaches (29% for echo-DbCM to 47% for hs-cTn). Two-step screening strategies captured most HF events (75-89%) in the high-risk subgroup with a comparable 5-year number needed to treat as the 1-step screening approaches (30-32). The 5-year number needed to screen to prevent 1 HF event was similar across 2-step screening strategies (45-61). However, the number of tests and associated costs were lowest for WATCH-DM/NT-proBNP ($1061) compared with other 2-step screening strategies (NT-proBNP/hs-cTn: $2894; NT-proBNP/echo-DbCM: $16 358). CONCLUSIONS: Selective NT-proBNP testing based on the WATCH-DM score efficiently identified a high-risk primary prevention population with diabetes expected to derive marked absolute benefits from SGLT2i to prevent HF.

Arrhythmic Risk in Biventricular Pacing Compared With Left Bundle Branch Area Pacing: Results From the I-CLAS Study.

BACKGROUND: Left bundle branch area pacing (LBBAP) may be associated with greater improvement in left ventricular ejection fraction and reduction in death or heart failure hospitalization compared with biventricular pacing (BVP) in patients requiring cardiac resynchronization therapy. We sought to compare the occurrence of sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) or ventricular fibrillation (VF) and new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients undergoing BVP and LBBAP. METHODS: The I-CLAS study (International Collaborative LBBAP Study) included patients with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35% who underwent BVP or LBBAP for cardiac resynchronization therapy between January 2018 and June 2022 at 15 centers. We performed propensity score-matched analysis of LBBAP and BVP in a 1:1 ratio. We assessed the incidence of VT/VF and new-onset AF among patients with no history of AF. Time to sustained VT/VF and time to new-onset AF was analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards survival model. RESULTS: Among 1778 patients undergoing cardiac resynchronization therapy (BVP, 981; LBBAP, 797), there were 1414 propensity score-matched patients (propensity score-matched BVP, 707; propensity score-matched LBBAP, 707). The occurrence of VT/VF was significantly lower with LBBAP compared with BVP (4.2% versus 9.3%; hazard ratio, 0.46 [95% CI, 0.29-0.74]; P<0.001). The incidence of VT storm (>3 episodes in 24 hours) was also significantly lower with LBBAP compared with BVP (0.8% versus 2.5%; P=0.013). Among 299 patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy pacemakers (BVP, 111; LBBAP, 188), VT/VF occurred in 8 patients in the BVP group versus none in the LBBAP group (7.2% versus 0%; P<0.001). In 1194 patients with no history of VT/VF or antiarrhythmic therapy (BVP, 591; LBBAP, 603), the occurrence of VT/VF was significantly lower with LBBAP than with BVP (3.2% versus 7.3%; hazard ratio, 0.46 [95% CI, 0.26-0.81]; P=0.007). Among patients with no history of AF (n=890), the occurrence of new-onset AF >30 s was significantly lower with LBBAP than with BVP (2.8% versus 6.6%; hazard ratio, 0.34 [95% CI, 0.16-0.73]; P=0.008). The incidence of AF lasting >24 hours was also significantly lower with LBBAP than with BVP (0.7% versus 2.9%; P=0.015). CONCLUSIONS: LBBAP was associated with a lower incidence of sustained VT/VF and new-onset AF compared with BVP. This difference remained significant after adjustment for differences in baseline characteristics between patients with BVP and LBBAP. Physiological resynchronization by LBBAP may be associated with lower risk of arrhythmias compared with BVP.

Comparison of Incidence and Prognostic Impact of Ischemic, Major Bleeding and Heart Failure Events in Patients With Chronic Coronary Syndrome: Insights From the CORONOR Registry.

BACKGROUND: Evaluation of the residual risk in patient with chronic coronary syndrome is challenging in daily practice. Several types of events (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, bleeding, and heart failure [HF]) may occur, and their impact on subsequent mortality is unclear in the era of modern evidence-based pharmacotherapy. METHODS: CORONOR (Suivi d'une cohorte de patients Coronariens stables en région Nord-pas-de-Calais) is a prospective multicenter cohort that enrolled 4184 consecutive unselected outpatients with chronic coronary syndrome. We analyzed the incidence, correlates, and impact of ischemic events (a composite of myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke), major bleeding (Bleeding Academic Research Consortium 3 or higher), and hospitalization for HF on subsequent patient mortality. RESULTS: During follow-up (median, 4.9 years), 677 patients (16.5%) died. The 5-year cumulative incidences (death as competing event) of ischemic events, major bleeding, and HF hospitalization were 6.3% (5.6%-7.1%), 3.1% (2.5%-3.6%), and 8.1% (7.3%-9%), respectively. Ischemic events, major bleeding, and HF hospitalization were each associated with all-cause mortality. Major bleeding and hospitalization for HF were associated with the highest mortality rates in the postevent period (42.4%/y and 34.7%/y, respectively) compared with incident ischemic events (13.1%/y). The age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality were 3.57 (95% CI, 2.77-4.61), 9.88 (95% CI, 7.55-12.93), and 8.60 (95% CI, 7.15-10.35) for ischemic events, major bleeding, and hospitalization for HF, respectively (all P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalization for HF has become both the most frequent and one of the most ominous events among patients with chronic coronary syndrome. Although less frequent, major bleeding is strongly associated with worse patient survival. Secondary prevention should not be limited to preventing ischemic events. Minimizing bleeding and preventing HF may be at least as important.

Nonischemic or Dual Cardiomyopathy in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease.

BACKGROUND: Randomized trials in obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) have largely shown no prognostic benefit from coronary revascularization. Although there are several potential reasons for the lack of benefit, an underexplored possible reason is the presence of coincidental nonischemic cardiomyopathy (NICM). We investigated the prevalence and prognostic significance of NICM in patients with CAD (CAD-NICM). METHODS: We conducted a registry study of consecutive patients with obstructive CAD on coronary angiography who underwent contrast-enhanced cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging for the assessment of ventricular function and scar at 4 hospitals from 2004 to 2020. We identified the presence and cause of cardiomyopathy using cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging and coronary angiography data, blinded to clinical outcomes. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death or heart failure hospitalization, and secondary outcomes were all-cause death, heart failure hospitalization, and cardiovascular death. RESULTS: Among 3023 patients (median age, 66 years; 76% men), 18.2% had no cardiomyopathy, 64.8% had ischemic cardiomyopathy (CAD+ICM), 9.3% had CAD+NICM, and 7.7% had dual cardiomyopathy (CAD+dualCM), defined as both ICM and NICM. Thus, 16.9% had CAD+NICM or dualCM. During a median follow-up of 4.8 years (interquartile range, 2.9, 7.6), 1116 patients experienced the primary outcome. In Cox multivariable analysis, CAD+NICM or dualCM was independently associated with a higher risk of the primary outcome compared with CAD+ICM (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.06-1.43]; P=0.007) after adjustment for potential confounders. The risks of the secondary outcomes of all-cause death and heart failure hospitalization were also higher with CAD+NICM or dualCM (hazard ratio, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.02-1.43]; P=0.032; and hazard ratio, 1.37 [95% CI, 1.11-1.69]; P=0.003, respectively), whereas the risk of cardiovascular death did not differ from that of CAD+ICM (hazard ratio, 1.15 [95% CI, 0.89-1.48]; P=0.28). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with CAD referred for clinical cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging, NICM or dualCM was identified in 1 of every 6 patients and was associated with worse long-term outcomes compared with ICM. In patients with obstructive CAD, coincidental NICM or dualCM may contribute to the lack of prognostic benefit from coronary revascularization.

Arterial Thromboembolism in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and CHA2DS2-VASc Score 1: A Nationwide Study.

BACKGROUND: Oral anticoagulation is suggested in patients with atrial fibrillation and a CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥1 (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes, stroke, vascular disease, age 65-74 years, and sex score). To assess granular differences within CHA2DS2-VASc 1, the incidence of arterial thromboembolism according to CHA2DS2-VASc 1 subgroups was examined. METHODS: The Danish National Patient Registry and the Danish Prescription Registry were linked on a nationwide level to identify patients with atrial fibrillation from 2000 to 2021 without oral anticoagulation and categorized according to CHA2DS2-VASc score: CHA2DS2-VASc 0 (male and female subjects); CHA2DS2-VASc 1 (hypertension, heart failure, diabetes, vascular disease, and age 65-74 years); or CHA2DS2-VASc 2 (age ≥75 years without other risk factors). Female sex was not considered a risk factor in any risk group. The outcome was arterial thromboembolism (ischemic stroke, embolism of extremity, or transient cerebral ischemia). Study groups were compared using Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: We included 26 701 patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc 0 score; 22 915 with CHA2DS2-VASc 1 (1483 patients with heart failure, 9066 with hypertension, 843 with diabetes, 770 with vascular disease, and 10 753 who were 65 to 74 years of age); and 14 525 patients with CHA2DS2-VASc 2 (≥75 years of age without other risk factors). With a median of 1 year of observation time, the cumulative incidence of arterial thromboembolism was 0.6% (n=154 [95% CI, 0.6%-0.8%]), 1.4% (n=16 [95% CI, 0.8%-2.2%]), 1.9% (n=141 [95% CI, 1.6%-2.2%]), 1.7% (n=12 [95% CI, 0.9%-2.9%]), 2.0% (n=13 [95% CI, 1.1%-3.4%]), 2.3% (n=187 [95% CI, 2.0%-2.7%]), and 4.4% (n=533 [95% CI, 4.1%-4.8%]) for CHA2DS2-VASc 0, heart failure, hypertension, diabetes, vascular disease, age 65 to 74 years (CHA2DS2-VASc 1), and age ≥75 years (CHA2DS2-VASc 2), respectively. No statistically significant difference was identified among subgroups of CHA2DS2-VASc 1 (P=0.15 for difference). CONCLUSIONS: For patients with atrial fibrillation, all subgroups of CHA2DS2-VASc 1 were associated with lower incidence of arterial thromboembolism compared with age ≥75 years without other risk factors (ie, CHA2DS2-VASc 2) and a higher incidence compared with CHA2DS2-VASc 0. No statistically significant difference was identified between the subgroups of CHA2DS2-VASc 1. These findings support current recommendations that patients within this intermediate risk group could be identified with a similar risk of arterial thromboembolism.

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: everything the clinician needs to know.

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is increasingly recognised and diagnosed in clinical practice, a trend driven by an ageing population and a rise in contributing comorbidities, such as obesity and diabetes. Representing at least half of all heart failure cases, HFpEF is recognised as a complex clinical syndrome. Its diagnosis and management are challenging due to its diverse pathophysiology, varied epidemiological patterns, and evolving diagnostic and treatment approaches. This Seminar synthesises the latest insights on HFpEF, integrating findings from recent clinical trials, epidemiological research, and the latest guideline recommendations. We delve into the definition, pathogenesis, epidemiology, diagnostic criteria, and management strategies (non-pharmacological and pharmacological) for HFpEF. We highlight ongoing clinical trials and future developments in the field. Specifically, this Seminar offers practical guidance tailored for primary care practitioners, generalists, and cardiologists who do not specialise in heart failure, simplifying the complexities in the diagnosis and management of HFpEF. We provide practical, evidence-based recommendations, emphasising the importance of addressing comorbidities and integrating the latest pharmacological treatments, such as SGLT2 inhibitors.

Interaction of COVID-19 With Common Cardiovascular Disorders.

The onset and widespread dissemination of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 in late 2019 impacted the world in a way not seen since the 1918 H1N1 pandemic, colloquially known as the Spanish Flu. Much like the Spanish Flu, which was observed to disproportionately impact young adults, it became clear in the early days of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that certain groups appeared to be at higher risk for severe illness once infected. One such group that immediately came to the forefront and garnered international attention was patients with preexisting cardiovascular disease. Here, we examine the available literature describing the interaction of COVID-19 with a myriad of cardiovascular conditions and diseases, paying particular attention to patients diagnosed with arrythmias, heart failure, and coronary artery disease. We further discuss the association of acute COVID-19 with de novo cardiovascular disease, including myocardial infarction due to coronary thrombosis, myocarditis, and new onset arrhythmias. We will evaluate various biochemical theories to explain these findings, including possible mechanisms of direct myocardial injury caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 virus at the cellular level. Finally, we will discuss the strategies employed by numerous groups and governing bodies within the cardiovascular disease community to address the unprecedented challenges posed to the care of our most vulnerable patients, including heart transplant recipients, end-stage heart failure patients, and patients suffering from acute coronary syndromes, during the early days and height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Temporal Risk of Nonfatal Cardiovascular Events After Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbation: A Population-based Study.

Rationale: Cardiovascular events after chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations are recognized. Studies to date have been post hoc analyses of trials, did not differentiate exacerbation severity, included death in the cardiovascular outcome, or had insufficient power to explore individual outcomes temporally.Objectives: We explore temporal relationships between moderate and severe exacerbations and incident, nonfatal hospitalized cardiovascular events in a primary care-derived COPD cohort.Methods: We included people with COPD in England from 2014 to 2020, from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum primary care database. The index date was the date of first COPD exacerbation or, for those without exacerbations, date upon eligibility. We determined composite and individual cardiovascular events (acute coronary syndrome, arrhythmia, heart failure, ischemic stroke, and pulmonary hypertension) from linked hospital data. Adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate average and time-stratified adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs).Measurements and Main Results: Among 213,466 patients, 146,448 (68.6%) had any exacerbation; 119,124 (55.8%) had moderate exacerbations, and 27,324 (12.8%) had severe exacerbations. A total of 40,773 cardiovascular events were recorded. There was an immediate period of cardiovascular relative rate after any exacerbation (1-14 d; aHR, 3.19 [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.71-3.76]), followed by progressively declining yet maintained effects, elevated after one year (aHR, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.78-1.91]). Hazard ratios were highest 1-14 days after severe exacerbations (aHR, 14.5 [95% CI, 12.2-17.3]) but highest 14-30 days after moderate exacerbations (aHR, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.63-2.31]). Cardiovascular outcomes with the greatest two-week effects after a severe exacerbation were arrhythmia (aHR, 12.7 [95% CI, 10.3-15.7]) and heart failure (aHR, 8.31 [95% CI, 6.79-10.2]).Conclusions: Cardiovascular events after moderate COPD exacerbations occur slightly later than after severe exacerbations; heightened relative rates remain beyond one year irrespective of severity. The period immediately after an exacerbation presents a critical opportunity for clinical intervention and treatment optimization to prevent future cardiovascular events.

Syphilis and cardiovascular risk: a Taiwanese registry.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Studies on the impact of syphilis on the cardiovascular system in large populations are limited. This study investigated the effects of syphilis on cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: Medical records from 2010 to 2015 were retrieved from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, linked to the Notifiable Infectious Diseases database from the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control. Patients with syphilis were identified, excluding those with missing information, under 20 years of age, or with a history of human immunodeficiency virus infection, acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, aortic regurgitation, replacement of the aortic valve, aneurysm and/or dissection of the aorta, atrial fibrillation, ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, and venous thromboembolism. Primary outcomes included new-onset acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, aortic regurgitation, aneurysm and dissection of the aorta, atrial fibrillation, ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, venous thromboembolism, cardiovascular death, and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: A total of 28 796 patients with syphilis were identified from 2010 to 2015. After exclusions and frequency matching, 20 601 syphilis patients and 20 601 non-syphilis patients were analysed. The relative rate (RR) was utilized in the analysis, as the competing risk of death was not considered. Compared with patients without syphilis, patients with syphilis had increased risks of acute myocardial infarction (RR 38%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-1.60, P < .001), heart failure (RR 88%, 95% CI 1.64-2.14, P < .001), aortic regurgitation (RR 81%, 95% CI 1.18-2.75, P = .006), atrial fibrillation (RR 45%, 95% CI 1.20-1.76, P < .001), ischaemic stroke (RR 68%, 95% CI 1.52-1.87, P < .001), haemorrhagic stroke (RR 114%, 95% CI 1.74-2.64, P < .001), venous thromboembolism (RR 67%, 95% CI 1.23-2.26, P = .001), cardiovascular death (RR 155%, 95% CI 2.11-3.08, P < .001), and all-cause death (RR 196%, 95% CI 2.74-3.19, P < .001) but not for aneurysm and dissection of the aorta. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that patients with syphilis have a higher risk of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality compared with those without syphilis.

Atrial fibrillation: age at diagnosis, incident cardiovascular events, and mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are at increased risks of cardiovascular diseases and mortality, but risks according to age at diagnosis have not been reported. This study investigated age-specific risks of outcomes among patients with AF and the background population. METHODS: This nationwide population-based cohort study included patients with AF and controls without outcomes by the application of exposure density matching on the basis of sex, year of birth, and index date. The absolute risks and hazard rates were stratified by age groups and assessed using competing risk survival analyses and Cox regression models, respectively. The expected differences in residual life years among participants were estimated. RESULTS: The study included 216 579 AF patients from year 2000 to 2020 and 866 316 controls. The mean follow-up time was 7.9 years. Comparing AF patients with matched controls, the hazard ratios among individuals ≤50 years was 8.90 [95% confidence interval (CI), 7.17-11.0] for cardiomyopathy, 8.64 (95% CI, 7.74-9.64) for heart failure, 2.18 (95% CI, 1.89-2.52) for ischaemic stroke, and 2.74 (95% CI, 2.53-2.96) for mortality. The expected average loss of life years among individuals ≤50 years was 9.2 years (95% CI, 9.0-9.3) years. The estimates decreased with older age. CONCLUSIONS: The findings show that earlier diagnosis of AF is associated with a higher hazard ratio of subsequent myocardial disease and shorter life expectancy. Further studies are needed to determine causality and whether AF could be used as a risk marker among particularly younger patients.

Long-term outcomes after hospitalization for atrial fibrillation or flutter.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and flutter are common causes of hospitalizations but contemporary long-term outcomes following these episodes are uncertain. This study assessed outcomes up to 10 years after an acute AF or flutter hospitalization. METHODS: Patients hospitalized acutely with a primary diagnosis of AF or flutter from 2008-17 from all public and most private hospitals in Australia and New Zealand were included. Kaplan-Meier methods and flexible parametric survival modelling were used to estimate survival and loss in life expectancy, respectively. Competing risk model accounting for death was used when estimating incidence of non-fatal outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 260 492 adults (mean age 70.5 ± 14.4 years, 49.6% female) were followed up for 1 068 009 person-years (PY), during which 69 167 died (incidence rate 6.5/100 PY) with 91.2% survival at 1 year, 72.7% at 5 years, and 55.2% at 10 years. Estimated loss in life expectancy was 2.6 years, or 16.8% of expected life expectancy. Re-hospitalizations for heart failure (2.9/100 PY), stroke (1.7/100 PY), and myocardial infarction (1.1/100 PY) were common with respective cumulative incidences of 16.8%, 11.0%, and 7.1% by 10 years. Re-hospitalization for AF or flutter occurred in 21.3% by 1 year, 35.3% by 5 years, and 41.2% by 10 years (11.6/100 PY). The cumulative incidence of patients undergoing catheter ablation of AF was 6.5% at 10 years (1.2/100 PY). CONCLUSIONS: Patients hospitalized for AF or flutter had high death rates with an average 2.6-year loss in life expectancy. Moreover, re-hospitalizations for AF or flutter and related outcomes such as heart failure and stroke were common with catheter ablation used infrequently for treatment, which warrant further actions.

Epidemiology of heart failure in diabetes: a disease in disguise.

Left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) without symptoms, and heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) represent the most common phenotypes of HF in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus, and are more common than HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), HF with mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) and left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) in these individuals. However, diagnostic criteria for HF have changed over the years, resulting in heterogeneity in the prevalence/incidence rates reported in different studies. We aimed to give an overview of the diagnosis and epidemiology of HF in type 2 diabetes, using both a narrative and systematic review approach; we focus narratively on diagnosing (using the 2021 European Society of Cardiology [ESC] guidelines) and screening for HF in type 2 diabetes. We performed an updated (2016-October 2022) systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting the prevalence and incidence of HF subtypes in adults ≥18 years with type 2 diabetes, using echocardiographic data. Embase and MEDLINE databases were searched and data were assessed using random-effects meta-analyses, with findings presented as forest plots. From the 5015 studies found, 209 were screened using the full-text article. In total, 57 studies were included, together with 29 studies that were identified in a prior meta-analysis; these studies reported on the prevalence of LVSD (n=25 studies, 24,460 individuals), LVDD (n=65 studies, 25,729 individuals), HFrEF (n=4 studies, 4090 individuals), HFmrEF (n=2 studies, 2442 individuals) and/or HFpEF (n=8 studies, 5292 individuals), and on HF incidence (n=7 studies, 17,935 individuals). Using Hoy et al's risk-of-bias tool, we found that the studies included generally had a high risk of bias. They showed a prevalence of 43% (95% CI 37%, 50%) for LVDD, 17% (95% CI 7%, 35%) for HFpEF, 6% (95% CI 3%, 10%) for LVSD, 7% (95% CI 3%, 15%) for HFrEF, and 12% (95% CI 7%, 22%) for HFmrEF. For LVDD, grade I was found to be most prevalent. Additionally, we reported a higher incidence rate of HFpEF (7% [95% CI 4%, 11%]) than HFrEF 4% [95% CI 3%, 7%]). The evidence is limited by the heterogeneity of the diagnostic criteria over the years. The systematic section of this review provides new insights on the prevalence/incidence of HF in type 2 diabetes, unveiling a large pre-clinical target group with LVDD/HFpEF in which disease progression could be halted by early recognition and treatment.Registration PROSPERO ID CRD42022368035.

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes in Patients With Heart Failure: Are There Thresholds and Inflection Points in Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction and Thresholds Justifying a Clinical Classification?

BACKGROUND: Recent guidelines proposed a classification for heart failure (HF) on the basis of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), although it remains unclear whether the divisions chosen were biologically rational. Using patients spanning the full range of LVEF, we examined whether there was evidence of LVEF thresholds in patient characteristics or inflection points in clinical outcomes. METHODS: Using patient-level information, we created a merged dataset of 33 699 participants who had been enrolled in 6 randomized controlled HF trials including patients with reduced and preserved ejection fraction. The relationship between the incidence of all-cause death (and specific causes of death) and HF hospitalization, and LVEF, was evaluated using Poisson regression models. RESULTS: As LVEF increased, age, the proportion of women, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, and prevalence of atrial fibrillation and diabetes increased, whereas ischemic pathogenesis, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) decreased. As LVEF increased >50%, age and the proportion of women continued to increase, and ischemic pathogenesis and NT-proBNP decreased, but other characteristics did not change meaningfully. The incidence of most clinical outcomes (except noncardiovascular death) decreased as LVEF increased, with a LVEF inflection point of around 50% for all-cause death and cardiovascular death, around 40% for pump failure death, and around 35% for HF hospitalization. Higher than those thresholds, there was little further decline in the incidence rate. There was no evidence of a J-shaped relationship between LVEF and death; no evidence of worse outcomes in patients with high-normal ("supranormal") LVEF. Similarly, in a subset of patients with echocardiographic data, there were no structural differences in patients with a high-normal LVEF suggestive of amyloidosis, and NT-proBNP levels were consistent with this conclusion. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with HF, there was a LVEF threshold of around 40% to 50% where the pattern of patient characteristics changed, and event rates began to increase compared with higher LVEF values. Our findings provide evidence to support current upper LVEF thresholds defining HF with mildly reduced ejection fraction on the basis of prognosis. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifiers: NCT00634309, NCT00634400, NCT00634712, NCT00095238, NCT01035255, NCT00094302, NCT00853658, and NCT01920711.

Historical Redlining, Socioeconomic Distress, and Risk of Heart Failure Among Medicare Beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: The association of historical redlining policies, a marker of structural racism, with contemporary heart failure (HF) risk among White and Black individuals is not well established. METHODS: We aimed to evaluate the association of redlining with the risk of HF among White and Black Medicare beneficiaries. Zip code-level redlining was determined by the proportion of historically redlined areas using the Mapping Inequality Project within each zip code. The association between higher zip code redlining proportion (quartile 4 versus quartiles 1-3) and HF risk were assessed separately among White and Black Medicare beneficiaries using generalized linear mixed models adjusted for potential confounders, including measures of the zip code-level Social Deprivation Index. RESULTS: A total of 2 388 955 Medicare beneficiaries (Black n=801 452; White n=1 587 503; mean age, 71 years; men, 44.6%) were included. Among Black beneficiaries, living in zip codes with higher redlining proportion (quartile 4 versus quartiles 1-3) was associated with increased risk of HF after adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities (risk ratio, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.04-1.12]; P<0.001). This association remained significant after further adjustment for area-level Social Deprivation Index (risk ratio, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.002-1.08]; P=0.04). A significant interaction was observed between redlining proportion and Social Deprivation Index (Pinteraction<0.01) such that higher redlining proportion was significantly associated with HF risk only among socioeconomically distressed regions (above the median Social Deprivation Index). Among White beneficiaries, redlining was associated with a lower risk of HF after adjustment for age, sex, and comorbidities (risk ratio, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.89-0.99]; P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Historical redlining is associated with an increased risk of HF among Black patients. Contemporary zip code-level social determinants of health modify the relationship between redlining and HF risk, with the strongest relationship between redlining and HF observed in the most socioeconomically disadvantaged communities.

Twenty Years of Cardiovascular Complications and Risk Factors in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: A Nationwide Swedish Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The goal of this work was to investigate trends (2001-2019) for cardiovascular events and cardiometabolic risk factor levels in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and matched control subjects. METHODS: This study included 679 072 individuals with T2D from the Swedish National Diabetes Register and 2 643 800 matched control subjects. Incident outcomes comprised coronary artery disease, acute myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular disease, and heart failure (HF). Trends in time to first event for each outcome were analyzed with Cox regression and standardized incidence rates. In the group with T2D, Cox regression was also used to assess risk factor levels beyond target and outcomes, as well as the relative importance of each risk factor to each model. RESULTS: Among individuals with T2D, incidence rates per 10 000 person-years in 2001 and 2019 were as follows: acute myocardial infarction, 73.9 (95% CI, 65.4-86.8) and 41.0 (95% CI, 39.5-42.6); coronary artery disease, 205.1 (95% CI, 186.8-227.5) and 80.2 (95% CI, 78.2-82.3); cerebrovascular disease, 83.9 (95% CI, 73.6-98.5) and 46.2 (95% CI, 44.9-47.6); and HF, 98.3 (95% CI, 89.4-112.0) and 75.9 (95% CI, 74.4-77.5). The incidence for HF plateaued around 2013, a trend that then persisted. In individuals with T2D, glycated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and lipids were independently associated with outcomes. Body mass index alone potentially explained >30% of HF risk in T2D. For those with T2D with no risk factor beyond target, there was no excess cardiovascular risk compared with control subjects except for HF, with increased hazard with T2D even when no risk factor was above target (hazard ratio, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.35-1.67]). Risk for coronary artery disease and cerebrovascular disease increased in a stepwise fashion for each risk factor not within target. Glycated hemoglobin was most prognostically important for incident atherosclerotic events, as was body mass index for incident of HF. CONCLUSIONS: Risk and rates for atherosclerotic complications and HF are generally decreasing among individuals with T2D, although HF incidence has notably plateaued in recent years. Modifiable risk factors within target levels were associated with lower risks for outcomes. This was particularly notable for systolic blood pressure and glycated hemoglobin for atherosclerotic outcomes and body mass index for heart failure.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Pre-pandemic Among Adults Hospitalized With Congestive Heart Failure or Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Data are limited on influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the prevention of influenza-related hospitalizations in older adults and those with underlying high-risk comorbidities. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, test-negative, case-control study at 2 US hospitals from October 2018-March 2020 among adults aged ≥50 years hospitalized with acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) and adults ≥18 years admitted with congestive heart failure (CHF) or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. Adults were eligible if they resided in 1 of 8 counties in metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were tested using BioFire FilmArray (bioMérieux, Inc.) respiratory panel, and standard-of-care molecular results were included when available. Influenza vaccination history was determined from the Georgia vaccine registry and medical records. We used multivariable logistic regression to control for potential confounders and to determine 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Among 3090 eligible adults, 1562 (50.6%) were enrolled. Of the 1515 with influenza vaccination history available, 701 (46.2%) had received vaccination during that season. Influenza was identified in 37 (5.3%) vaccinated versus 78 (9.6%) unvaccinated participants. After adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, immunosuppression, month, and season, pooled VE for any influenza-related hospitalization in the eligible study population was 63.1% (95% CI, 43.8-75.8%). Adjusted VE against influenza-related hospitalization for ARI in adults ≥50 years was 55.9% (29.9-72.3%) and adjusted VE against influenza-related CHF/COPD exacerbation in adults ≥18 years was 80.3% (36.3-93.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccination was effective in preventing influenza-related hospitalizations in adults aged ≥50 years and those with CHF/COPD exacerbations during the 2018-2020 seasons.

Albumin Levels and Risk of Early Cardiovascular Complications After Ischemic Stroke: A Propensity-Matched Analysis of a Global Federated Health Network.

BACKGROUND: No studies have investigated the association between albumin levels and the risk of early cardiovascular complications in patients with ischemic stroke. METHODS: Retrospective analysis with a federated research network (TriNetX) based on electronic medical records (International Classification of Diseases-Tenth Revision-Clinical Modification and logical observation identifiers names and codes) mainly reported between 2000 and 2023, from 80 health care organizations in the United States. Based on albumin levels measured at admission to the hospital, patients with ischemic stroke were categorized into 2 groups: (1) reduced (≤3.4 g/dL) and (2) normal (≥3.5 g/dL) albumin levels. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, ventricular arrhythmias, myocardial infarction, and Takotsubo cardiomyopathy 30 days from the stroke. Secondary outcomes were the risk for each component of the primary outcome. Cox regression analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs following propensity score matching. RESULTS: Overall, 320 111 patients with stroke had normal albumin levels (70.9±14.7 years; 48.9% females) and 183 729 (57.4%) had reduced albumin levels (72.9±14.3 years; 50.3% females). After propensity score matching, the primary outcomes occurred in 36.0% of patients with reduced and 26.1% with normal albumin levels (HR, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.46-1.50]). The higher risk in patients with reduced albumin levels was consistent also for all-cause death (HR, 2.77 [95% CI, 2.70-2.84]), heart failure (HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.29-1.34]), atrial fibrillation (HR, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.09-1.13]), ventricular arrhythmias (HR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.30-1.46]), myocardial infarction (HR, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.54-1.65]), and Takotsubo cardiomyopathy (HR, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.26-1.82]). The association between albumin levels and the risk of cardiovascular events was independent of advanced age, sex, multimorbidity, and other causes of hypoalbuminemia. A progressively increased risk of adverse events was found in patients with mild and severe reduced compared to normal albumin levels. CONCLUSIONS: Albumin levels are associated with the risk of early cardiovascular events and death in patients with ischemic stroke. The potential pathophysiological or therapeutic roles of albumin in patients with stroke warrant further investigation.

Inflammatory Mechanisms in Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction.

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is now the most common form of heart failure and a significant public health concern for which limited effective therapies exist. Inflammation triggered by comorbidity burden is a critical element of HFpEF pathophysiology. Here, we discuss evidence for comorbidity-driven systemic and myocardial inflammation and the mechanistic role of inflammation in pathological myocardial remodeling in HFpEF.

Hypothetical 22-Year Intervention With the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension and Risk of Heart Failure in a General Population.

We used design principles of target trial methodology to emulate the effect of sustained adherence to the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet on the 22-year risk of heart failure. Women and men aged 45-83 years without previous heart failure, who answered questionnaires in 1997 from the Swedish Mammography Cohort and the Cohort of Swedish Men, were eligible. Follow-up questionnaires were sent in 2008-2009. Incidence of heart failure was ascertained using the Swedish Patient Register, updated until December 31, 2019. The parametric g-formula was used to estimate the 22-year risk of heart failure under sustained adherence to a population-adapted DASH diet compared with no intervention. Intakes before 1997 for before-baseline adjustment was available only for women. In total, 31,238 women and 34,939 men were eligible. The 22-year risk of heart failure was 14.5% with long-term adherence to the DASH diet compared with 15.2% with no intervention (risk difference = -0.7%, 95% confidence interval: 1.6, 0.0%) in women and correspondingly in men 15.3% vs. 16.2% (risk difference = -0.9%, 95% confidence interval: -1.6, -0.2%). Our hypothetical intervention suggests that sustained adherence to the population-adapted DASH diet may reduce risk of heart failure in middle-aged and elderly Swedish women and men.