The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management.

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change3.

A mixed-methods study describing behavioral factors that influenced general practitioners' experiences using triage during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, general practices were asked to expand triage and to reduce unnecessary face-to-face contact by prioritizing other consultation modes, e.g., online messaging, video, or telephone. The current study explores the potential barriers and facilitators general practitioners experienced to expanding triage systems and their attitudes towards triage during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD: A mixed-method study design was used in which a quantitative online survey was conducted along with qualitative interviews to gain a more nuanced appreciation for practitioners' experiences in the United Kingdom. The survey items were informed by the Theoretical Domains Framework so they would capture 14 behavioral factors that may influence whether practitioners use triage systems. Items were responded to using seven-point Likert scales. A median score was calculated for each item. The responses of participants identifying as part-owners and non-owners (i.e., "partner" vs. "non-partner" practitioners) were compared. The semi-structured interviews were conducted remotely and examined using Braun and Clark's thematic analysis. RESULTS: The survey was completed by 204 participants (66% Female). Most participants (83%) reported triaging patients. The items with the highest median scores captured the 'Knowledge,' 'Skills,' 'Social/Professional role and identity,' and 'Beliefs about capabilities' domains. The items with the lowest median scores captured the 'Beliefs about consequences,' 'Goals,' and 'Emotions' domains. For 14 of the 17 items, partner scores were higher than non-partner scores. All the qualitative interview participants relied on a phone triage system. Six broad themes were discovered: patient accessibility, confusions around what triage is, uncertainty and risk, relationships between service providers, job satisfaction, and the potential for total digital triage. Suggestions arose to optimize triage, such as ensuring there is sufficient time to conduct triage accurately and providing practical training to use triage efficiently. CONCLUSIONS: Many general practitioners are engaging with expanded triage systems, though more support is needed to achieve total triage across practices. Non-partner practitioners likely require more support to use the triage systems that practices take up. Additionally, practical support should be made available to help all practitioners manage the new risks and uncertainties they are likely to experience during non-face-to-face consultations.

Managing Prostate Cancer Surgical Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Brief Report of the Duke Cancer Institute's Initial Experience.

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has rapidly placed tremendous stress on health systems around the world. In response, multiple health systems have postponed elective surgeries in order to conserve hospital beds and personal protective equipment, minimize patient traffic, and prevent unnecessary utilization and exposure of healthcare workers. The American College of Surgeons released the following statement on March 13, 2020: "Each hospital, health system and surgeon should thoughtfully review all scheduled elective procedures with a plan to minimize, postpone, or cancel electively scheduled operations, endoscopes, or other invasive procedures until we have passed the predicted inflection point in the exposure graph and can be confident that our health care infrastructure can support a potentially rapid and overwhelming uptick in critical patient care needs." In our state, North Carolina, Governor Roy Cooper requested that all hospitals postpone elective and non-urgent procedures and surgeries effective March 23, 2020.

Risk-based surveillance for meat-borne parasites.

There is a plethora of meat-borne hazards - including parasites - for which there may be a need for surveillance. However, veterinary services worldwide need to decide how to use their scarce resources and prioritise among the perceived hazards. Moreover, to remain competitive, food business operators - irrespective of whether they are farmers or abattoir operators - are preoccupied with maintaining a profit and minimizing costs. Still, customers and trade partners expect that meat products placed on the market are safe to consume and should not bear any risks of causing disease. Risk-based surveillance systems may offer a solution to this challenge by applying risk analysis principles; first to set priorities, and secondly to allocate resources effectively and efficiently. The latter is done through a focus on the cost-effectiveness ratio in sampling and prioritisation. Risk-based surveillance was originally introduced into veterinary public health in 2006. Since then, experience has been gathered, and the methodology has been further developed. Guidelines and tools have been developed, which can be used to set up appropriate surveillance programmes. In this paper, the basic principles are described, and by use of a surveillance design tool called SURVTOOLS (https://survtools.org/), examples are given covering three meat-borne parasites for which risk-based surveillance is 1) either in place in the European Union (EU) (Trichinella spp.), 2) to be officially implemented in December 2019 (Taenia saginata) or 3) only carried out by one abattoir company in the EU as there is no official EU requirement (Toxoplasma gondii). Moreover, advantages, requirements and limitations of risk-based surveillance for meat-borne parasites are discussed.

Are the MORECare guidelines on reporting of attrition in palliative care research populations appropriate? A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Palliative care trials have higher rates of attrition. The MORECare guidance recommends applying classifications of attrition to report attrition to help interpret trial results. The guidance separates attrition into three categories: attrition due to death, illness or at random. The aim of our study is to apply the MORECare classifications on reported attrition rates in trials. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted and attrition classifications retrospectively applied. Four databases, EMBASE; Medline, CINHAL and PsychINFO, were searched for randomised controlled trials of palliative care populations from 01.01.2010 to 08.10.2016. This systematic review is part of a larger review looking at recruitment to randomised controlled trials in palliative care, from January 1990 to early October 2016. We ran random-effect models with and without moderators and descriptive statistics to calculate rates of missing data. RESULTS: One hundred nineteen trials showed a total attrition of 29% (95% CI 28 to 30%). We applied the MORECare classifications of attrition to the 91 papers that contained sufficient information. The main reason for attrition was attrition due to death with a weighted mean of 31.6% (SD 27.4) of attrition cases. Attrition due to illness was cited as the reason for 17.6% (SD 24.5) of participants. In 50.8% (SD 26.5) of cases, the attrition was at random. We did not observe significant differences in missing data between total attrition in non-cancer patients (26%; 95% CI 18-34%) and cancer patients (24%; 95% CI 20-29%). There was significantly more missing data in outpatients (29%; 95% CI 22-36%) than inpatients (16%; 95% CI 10-23%). We noted increased attrition in trials with longer durations. CONCLUSION: Reporting the cause of attrition is useful in helping to understand trial results. Prospective reporting using the MORECare classifications should improve our understanding of future trials.

Improving Health Risk Assessment as a Basis for Public Health Decisions in the 21st Century.

One-fifth of the way through the 21st century, a commonality of factors with those of the last 50 years may offer the opportunity to address unfinished business and current challenges. The recommendations include: (1) Resisting the tendency to oversimplify scientific assessments by reliance on single disciplines in lieu of clear weight-of-evidence expressions, and on single quantitative point estimates of health protective values for policy decisions; (2) Improving the separation of science and judgment in risk assessment through the use of clear expressions of the range of judgments that bracket protective quantitative levels for public health protection; (3) Use of comparative risk to achieve the greatest gains in health and the environment; and (4) Where applicable, reversal of the risk assessment and risk management steps to facilitate timely and substantive improvements in public health and the environment. Lessons learned and improvements in the risk assessment process are applied to the unprecedented challenges of the 21st century such as, pandemics and climate change. The beneficial application of the risk assessment and risk management paradigm to ensure timely research with consistency and transparency of assessments is presented. Institutions with mandated stability and leadership roles at the national and international levels are essential to ensure timely interdisciplinary scientific assessment at the interface with public policy as a basis for organized policy decisions, to meet time sensitive goals, and to inform the public.

Leveraging Electronic Health Records and Machine Learning to Tailor Nursing Care for Patients at High Risk for Readmissions.

BACKGROUND: Electronic health record-derived data and novel analytics, such as machine learning, offer promising approaches to identify high-risk patients and inform nursing practice. PURPOSE: The aim was to identify patients at risk for readmissions by applying a machine-learning technique, Classification and Regression Tree, to electronic health record data from our 300-bed hospital. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 2165 clinical encounters from August to October 2017 using data from our health system's data store. Classification and Regression Tree was employed to determine patient profiles predicting 30-day readmission. RESULTS: The 30-day readmission rate was 11.2% (n = 242). Classification and Regression Tree analysis revealed highest risk for readmission among patients who visited the emergency department, had 9 or more comorbidities, were insured through Medicaid, and were 65 years of age and older. CONCLUSIONS: Leveraging information through the electronic health record and Classification and Regression Tree offers a useful way to identify high-risk patients. Findings from our algorithm may be used to improve the quality of nursing care delivery for patients at highest readmission risk.

Failure to report poor care as a breach of moral and professional expectation.

Cases of poor care have been documented across the world. Contrary to professional requirements, evidence indicates that these sometimes go unaddressed. For patients, the outcomes of this inaction are invariably negative. Previous work has either focused on why poor care occurs and what might be done to prevent it, or on the reasons why those who are witness to it find it difficult to raise their concerns. Here, we build on this work but specifically foreground the responsibilities of registrants and students who witness poor care. Acknowledging the challenges associated with raising concerns, we make the case that failure to address poor care is a breach of moral expectation, professional requirement and, sometimes, legal frameworks. We argue that reporting will be more likely to take place if those who wish to enter the profession have a realistic view of the challenges they may encounter. When nurses are provided with robust and applied education on ethics, when "real-world" cases and exemplars are used in practice and when steps are taken to develop and encourage individual moral courage, we may begin to see positive change. Ultimately however, significant change is only likely to take place where practice cultures invite and welcome feedback, promote critical reflection, and where strong, clear leadership support is shown by those in positions of influence across organisations.

Progress of polio eradication and containment requirements after eradication.

Wild poliovirus (WPV) is nearing eradication, and only three countries have never interrupted WPV transmission (Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Nigeria). WPV2 was last detected in 1999, and it was declared eradicated in 2015. WPV3 has not been detected since 2012. Since 2016, WPV1 has been detected in only two countries (Afghanistan and Pakistan), with only 22 cases reported in 2017 and 12 cases reported in 2018 (as of July 10). Because of WPV2 eradication and the risk of emergence of type 2 vaccine-derived polioviruses from continued use of trivalent oral polio vaccine (OPV), trivalent OPV was replaced by bivalent OPV (types 1 and 3) in a globally coordinated effort in 2016. WPV2 eradication and trivalent OPV cessation also mean that breach of containment in a facility working with type 2 poliovirus is now a major risk to reseed type 2 circulation in the community. As a result, the World Health Organization has developed a "Global Action Plan to minimize poliovirus facility-associated risk after type-specific eradication of wild polioviruses and sequential cessation of oral polio vaccine use." Because poliovirus has long been used as a standard for qualification of intravenous immunoglobulin, disinfectant products, and sanitation methods, poliovirus containment has implications far beyond poliovirus laboratories.

Nanomaterials in food and agriculture: An overview on their safety concerns and regulatory issues.

Nanotechnology has seen exponential growth in last decade due to its unique physicochemical properties; however, the risk associated with this emerging technology has withdrawn ample attention in the past decade. Nanotoxicity is majorly contributed to the small size and large surface area of nanomaterials, which allow easy dispersion and invasion of anatomical barriers in human body. Unique physio-chemical properties of nanoparticles make the investigation of their toxic consequences intricate and challenging. This makes it important to have an in-depth knowledge of different mechanisms involved in nanomaterials's action and toxicity. Nano-toxicity has various effects on human health and diseases as they can easily enter into the humans via different routes, mainly respiratory, dermal, and gastrointestinal routes. This also limits the use of nanomaterials as therapeutic and diagnostic tools. This review focuses on the nanomaterial-cell interactions leading to toxicological responses. Different mechanisms involved in nanoparticle-mediated toxicity with the main focus on oxidative stress, genotoxic, and carcinogenic potential has also been discussed. Different methods and techniques used for the characterization of nanomaterials in food and other biological matrices have also been discussed in detail. Nano-toxicity on different organs-with the major focus on the cardiac and respiratory system-have been discussed. Conclusively, the risk management of nanotoxicity is also summarized. This review provides a better understanding of the current scenario of the nanotoxicology, disease progression due to nanomaterials, and their use in the food industry and medical therapeutics. Briefly, the required rules, regulations, and the need of policy makers has been discussed critically.

Coordinating resources for prospective medication risk management of older home care clients in primary care: procedure development and RCT study design for demonstrating its effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: The magnitude of safety risks related to medications of the older adults has been evidenced by numerous studies, but less is known of how to manage and prevent these risks in different health care settings. The aim of this study was to coordinate resources for prospective medication risk management of home care clients ≥ 65 years in primary care and to develop a study design for demonstrating effectiveness of the procedure. METHODS: Health care units involved in the study are from primary care in Lohja, Southern Finland: home care (191 consented clients), the public healthcare center, and a private community pharmacy. System based risk management theory and action research method was applied to construct the collaborative procedure utilizing each profession's existing resources in medication risk management of older home care clients. An inventory of clinical measures in usual clinical practice and systematic review of rigorous study designs was utilized in effectiveness study design. DISCUSSION: The new coordinated medication management model (CoMM) has the following 5 stages: 1) practical nurses are trained to identify clinically significant drug-related problems (DRPs) during home visits and report those to the clinical pharmacist. Clinical pharmacist prepares the cases for 2) an interprofessional triage meeting (50-70 cases/meeting of 2 h) where decisions are made on further action, e.g., more detailed medication reviews, 3) community pharmacists conduct necessary medication reviews and each patients' physician makes final decisions on medication changes needed. The final stages concern 4) implementation and 5) follow-up of medication changes. Randomized controlled trial (RCT) was developed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the procedure. The developed procedure is feasible for screening and reviewing medications of a high number of older home care clients to identify clients with severe DRPs and provide interventions to solve them utilizing existing primary care resources. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is registered in the Clinical Trials.gov ( NCT02545257 ). Registration date September 9 2015.

Impact of Public Reporting of 30-day Mortality on Timing of Death after Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Recent reports have raised concerns that public reporting of 30-day mortality after cardiac surgery may delay decisions to withdraw life-sustaining therapies for some patients. The authors sought to examine whether timing of mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery significantly increases after day 30 in Massachusetts, a state that reports 30-day mortality. The authors used New York as a comparator state, which reports combined 30-day and all in-hospital mortality, irrespective of time since surgery. METHODS: The authors conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients who underwent coronary artery bypass graft surgery in hospitals in Massachusetts and New York between 2008 and 2013. The authors calculated the empiric daily hazard of in-hospital death without censoring on hospital discharge, and they used joinpoint regression to identify significant changes in the daily hazard over time. RESULTS: In Massachusetts and New York, 24,864 and 63,323 patients underwent coronary artery bypass graft surgery, respectively. In-hospital mortality was low, with 524 deaths (2.1%) in Massachusetts and 1,398 (2.2%) in New York. Joinpoint regression did not identify a change in the daily hazard of in-hospital death at day 30 or 31 in either state; significant joinpoints were identified on day 10 (95% CI, 7 to 15) for Massachusetts and days 2 (95% CI, 2 to 3) and 12 (95% CI, 8 to 15) for New York. CONCLUSIONS: In Massachusetts, a state with a long history of publicly reporting cardiac surgery outcomes at day 30, the authors found no evidence of increased mortality occurring immediately after day 30 for patients who underwent coronary artery bypass graft surgery. These findings suggest that delays in withdrawal of life-sustaining therapy do not routinely occur as an unintended consequence of this type of public reporting.

Food and feed chemical contaminants in the European Union: Regulatory, scientific, and technical issues concerning chemical contaminants occurrence, risk assessment, and risk management in the European Union.

A priority of the European Union is the control of risks possibly associated with chemical contaminants in food and undesirable substances in feed. Following an initial chapter describing the main contaminants detected in food and undesirable substances in feed in the EU, their main sources and the factors which affect their occurrence, the present review focuses on the "continous call for data" procedure that is a very effective system in place at EFSA to make possible the exposure assessment of specific contaminants and undesirable substances. Risk assessment of contaminants in food atances in feed is carried currently in the European Union by the CONTAM Panel of EFSA according to well defined methodologies and in collaboration with competent international organizations and with Member States.

Understanding the impact of supervision on reducing medication risks: an interview study in long-term elderly care.

BACKGROUND: In 2009, the Dutch Health Care Inspectorate (IGZ) observed several serious risks to safety involving medication within elderly care facilities. However, by 2011, high risks had been reduced in almost all the organisations we visited. And yet the IGZ analysed too the alarming increase in the number of incidents arising in the self-reported national indicator of medication safety between 2009 and 2010. The aim of this study was to understand the factors that can explain this contradiction between the increase in self-reported medication incidents and the observation of the IGZ in reducing the risks to medication safety through supervision. METHODS: We interviewed health care professionals of ten care facilities, visited by the IGZ, who were involved in, or responsible for, the improvement of medication safety in their institutions. As outcome measures we used the rate of medication safety risk per facility; the perceptions of the participant with regard to the reports of medication incidents; the level of medication safety of the facility; the measures used to improve medication safety; and the supervision of medication safety. This was a mixed methods study, qualitative in that we used semi-structured interviews, and quantitative, by calculating risks for the different organisations we visited. The findings from both study methods resulted in a comprehensive view and an in-depth understanding of this contradiction. RESULTS: The contradiction between the increase in self-reported medication incidents and the observation of reduced risks was explained by three themes: activities designed to improve medication safety, the reporting of medication incidents, and, lastly, the impact of supervision. The focus of the IGZ on issues of medication safety stimulated most elderly care facilities to reduce medication risks. Also, a change in the culture of reporting incidents caused an increase in the number of reported incidents. CONCLUSIONS: Supervision contributed to an improvement in actions geared towards reducing the risks associated with the safety of medication. It also increased a willingness to report such incidents. The more incidents reported are therefore not necessarily a sign of an increase in the risks, but can also be considered as a sign of a safer culture.

Professional attitudes toward incident reporting: can we measure and compare improvements in patient safety culture?

OBJECTIVE: To establish categories of professionals' attitudes toward incident reporting by analyzing the trends in incident reporting while accounting for general risk indicators. DESIGN: The incident reporting system was evaluated over 6 years. Reporting rates, stratified by year and profession, were estimated using the non-mandatory reported events/full-time equivalent (NM-IR/FTE) rate. Other indicators were collected using the hospital's official database. Staff attitudes toward self-reporting were analyzed. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed. SETTING: A 1000-bed Italian academic hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Staff of the hospital (over 3200 professionals). INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: NM-IT/FTE rates, self-reported rates, patient complaints/praises, work accidents among professionals and 30-day readmissions. RESULTS: The overall reporting rate was 0.44 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.42-0.46) among doctors and 0.40 (95% CI: 0.39-0.41) among nurses. Between 2010 and 2015, only the doctors' reporting rate increased significantly (P = 0.04), from 0.29 (95% CI: 0.25-0.34) to 0.67 (95% CI: 0.60-0.73). Patient complaints decreased from 384 to 224 (P < 0.001) and work accidents decreased from 296 to 235 (P = 0.01), while other indicators remained constant. Multivariable logistic regression showed that self-reporting was more likely among nurses than doctors (odds ratio: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.31-1.73) and for severe events than near misses (odds ratio: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.11-2.87). CONCLUSIONS: Because the doctors' reporting rates increased during the study period, doctors may be more likely to report adverse events than nurses, although nurses reported more events. Incident reporting trends and other routinely collected risk indicators may be useful to improve our understanding and measurement of patient safety issues.

The reasons for Chinese nursing staff to report adverse events: a questionnaire survey.

AIMS: To investigate the impact of nurses' perception of patient safety culture and adverse event reporting, and demographic factors on adverse event reporting in Chinese hospitals. BACKGROUND: Accurate and timely adverse event reporting is integral in promoting patient safety and professional learning around the incident. METHODS: In a cross-sectional survey, a sample of 919 nurses completed a structured questionnaire composed of two validated instruments measuring nurses' perception of patient safety culture and adverse event reporting. Associations between the variables were examined using multiple linear regression analysis. RESULTS: The positive response rates of five dimensions of the Patient Safety Culture Assessment Scale varied from 47.55% to 80.62%. The accuracy rate of Adverse Event Reporting Perception Scale was 63.16%. Five hundred and thirty-one (58.03%) nurses did not report adverse event in past 12 months. Six variables were found to be associated with nurses' adverse event reporting: total work experience (P = 0.003), overall patient safety culture score (P < 0.001), safety climate (P < 0.001), teamwork climate (P < 0.001), overall the adverse event reporting perception scale score (P = 0.003) and importance or reporting (P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: The results confirmed that improvements in the patient safety culture and nurses' perception of adverse event reporting were related to an increase in voluntary adverse event reporting. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING MANAGEMENT: The knowledge of adverse event reporting should be integrated into the patient safety curriculum. Interventions that target a specific domain are necessary to improve the safety culture.

[The emergence of patient safety issues in France]. / L'émergence de la question de la sécurité des patients en France.

INTRODUCTION: The objective of this study was to elucidate the conditions of emergence of patient safety issues in the public debate and the limits to implementation of patient safety in the current health system. METHOD: A narrative review of the international literature was conducted by searching PubMed, Cairn and Persée databases. RESULTS: The database search retrieved 2,206 documents, 48 of which were included in the study. The theme of patient safety has spread worldwide, but emerged late in France. The delayed emergence of patient safety in France is essentially related to the euphemistic approach to the problem of patient safety, the difficulty of adopting systematic reasoning, the lack of human resources management levers and the ambiguous position of patients in relation to patient safety.

[Therapeutic restraint and freedom of movement, changing practices]. / Contrainte thérapeutique et liberté d'aller et venir, changer les pratiques.

From confinement to the philosophy of care in the community, the history of psychiatry testifies to the evolution of practices in the matter of the restriction of freedom. The French National Health Authority still too often recommends practices based on restraint. Caregivers, in relation to the clinical aspect of the patients, need clearly identified therapeutic projects. While training can be vital for them, risk management policies can prove to be a hindrance to patients' freedom.