Future emergence of new ecosystems caused by glacial retreat.

Glacier shrinkage and the development of post-glacial ecosystems related to anthropogenic climate change are some of the fastest ongoing ecosystem shifts, with marked ecological and societal cascading consequences1-6. Yet, no complete spatial analysis exists, to our knowledge, to quantify or anticipate this important changeover7,8. Here we show that by 2100, the decline of all glaciers outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets may produce new terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems over an area ranging from the size of Nepal (149,000 ± 55,000 km2) to that of Finland (339,000 ± 99,000 km2). Our analysis shows that the loss of glacier area will range from 22 ± 8% to 51 ± 15%, depending on the climate scenario. In deglaciated areas, the emerging ecosystems will be characterized by extreme to mild ecological conditions, offering refuge for cold-adapted species or favouring primary productivity and generalist species. Exploring the future of glacierized areas highlights the importance of glaciers and emerging post-glacial ecosystems in the face of climate change, biodiversity loss and freshwater scarcity. We find that less than half of glacial areas are located in protected areas. Echoing the recent United Nations resolution declaring 2025 as the International Year of Glaciers' Preservation9 and the Global Biodiversity Framework10, we emphasize the need to urgently and simultaneously enhance climate-change mitigation and the in situ protection of these ecosystems to secure their existence, functioning and values.

Tree islands enhance biodiversity and functioning in oil palm landscapes.

In the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration1, large knowledge gaps persist on how to increase biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in cash crop-dominated tropical landscapes2. Here, we present findings from a large-scale, 5-year ecosystem restoration experiment in an oil palm landscape enriched with 52 tree islands, encompassing assessments of ten indicators of biodiversity and 19 indicators of ecosystem functioning. Overall, indicators of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, as well as multidiversity and ecosystem multifunctionality, were higher in tree islands compared to conventionally managed oil palm. Larger tree islands led to larger gains in multidiversity through changes in vegetation structure. Furthermore, tree enrichment did not decrease landscape-scale oil palm yield. Our results demonstrate that enriching oil palm-dominated landscapes with tree islands is a promising ecological restoration strategy, yet should not replace the protection of remaining forests.

Landscape-scale benefits of protected areas for tropical biodiversity.

The United Nations recently agreed to major expansions of global protected areas (PAs) to slow biodiversity declines1. However, although reserves often reduce habitat loss, their efficacy at preserving animal diversity and their influence on biodiversity in surrounding unprotected areas remain unclear2-5. Unregulated hunting can empty PAs of large animals6, illegal tree felling can degrade habitat quality7, and parks can simply displace disturbances such as logging and hunting to unprotected areas of the landscape8 (a phenomenon called leakage). Alternatively, well-functioning PAs could enhance animal diversity within reserves as well as in nearby unprotected sites9 (an effect called spillover). Here we test whether PAs across mega-diverse Southeast Asia contribute to vertebrate conservation inside and outside their boundaries. Reserves increased all facets of bird diversity. Large reserves were also associated with substantially enhanced mammal diversity in the adjacent unprotected landscape. Rather than PAs generating leakage that deteriorated ecological conditions elsewhere, our results are consistent with PAs inducing spillover that benefits biodiversity in surrounding areas. These findings support the United Nations goal of achieving 30% PA coverage by 2030 by demonstrating that PAs are associated with higher vertebrate diversity both inside their boundaries and in the broader landscape.

Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C.

Over the last five years prior to the Glasgow Climate Pact1, 154 Parties have submitted new or updated 2030 mitigation goals in their nationally determined contributions and 76 have put forward longer-term pledges. Quantifications of the pledges before the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) suggested a less than 50 per cent chance of keeping warming below 2 degrees Celsius2-5. Here we show that warming can be kept just below 2 degrees Celsius if all conditional and unconditional pledges are implemented in full and on time. Peak warming could be limited to 1.9-2.0 degrees Celsius (5%-95% range 1.4-2.8 °C) in the full implementation case-building on a probabilistic characterization of Earth system uncertainties in line with the Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report6 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We retrospectively project twenty-first-century warming to show how the aggregate level of ambition changed from 2015 to 2021. Our results rely on the extrapolation of time-limited targets beyond 2030 or 2050, characteristics of the IPCC 1.5 °C Special Report (SR1.5) scenario database7 and the full implementation of pledges. More pessimistic assumptions on these factors would lead to higher temperature projections. A second, independent emissions modelling framework projected peak warming of 1.8 degrees Celsius, supporting the finding that realized pledges could limit warming to just below 2 degrees Celsius. Limiting warming not only to 'just below' but to 'well below' 2 degrees Celsius or 1.5 degrees Celsius urgently requires policies and actions to bring about steep emission reductions this decade, aligned with mid-century global net-zero CO2 emissions.

A function-based typology for Earth's ecosystems.

As the United Nations develops a post-2020 global biodiversity framework for the Convention on Biological Diversity, attention is focusing on how new goals and targets for ecosystem conservation might serve its vision of 'living in harmony with nature'1,2. Advancing dual imperatives to conserve biodiversity and sustain ecosystem services requires reliable and resilient generalizations and predictions about ecosystem responses to environmental change and management3. Ecosystems vary in their biota4, service provision5 and relative exposure to risks6, yet there is no globally consistent classification of ecosystems that reflects functional responses to change and management. This hampers progress on developing conservation targets and sustainability goals. Here we present the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Global Ecosystem Typology, a conceptually robust, scalable, spatially explicit approach for generalizations and predictions about functions, biota, risks and management remedies across the entire biosphere. The outcome of a major cross-disciplinary collaboration, this novel framework places all of Earth's ecosystems into a unifying theoretical context to guide the transformation of ecosystem policy and management from global to local scales. This new information infrastructure will support knowledge transfer for ecosystem-specific management and restoration, globally standardized ecosystem risk assessments, natural capital accounting and progress on the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.

Ensuring progress on sustainable access to effective antibiotics at the 2024 UN General Assembly: a target-based approach.

Rising antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global health crisis for countries of all economic levels, alongside the broader challenge of access to antibiotics. As a result, development goals for child survival, healthy ageing, poverty reduction, and food security are at risk. Preserving antimicrobial effectiveness, a global public good, requires political will, targets, accountability frameworks, and funding. The upcoming second high-level meeting on AMR at the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in September, 2024, is evidence of political interest in addressing the problem of AMR, but action on targets, accountability, and funding, absent from the 2016 UNGA resolution, is needed. We propose ambitious yet achievable global targets for 2030 (relative to a prepandemic 2019 baseline): a 10% reduction in mortality from AMR; a 20% reduction in inappropriate human antibiotic use; and a 30% reduction in inappropriate animal antibiotic use. Given national variation in current levels of antibiotic use, these goals (termed the 10-20-30 by 2030) should be met within a framework of universal access to effective antibiotics. The WHO Access, Watch, Reserve (AWARE) system can be used to define, monitor, and evaluate appropriate levels of antibiotic use and access. Some countries should increase access to narrow-spectrum, safe, and affordable (Access) antibiotics, whereas others should discourage the inappropriate use of broader-spectrum (Watch) and last-resort (Reserve) antibiotics; AWARE targets should use a risk-based, burden-adjusted approach. Improved infection prevention and control, access to clean water and sanitation, and vaccination coverage can offset the selection effects of increased antibiotic use in low-income settings. To ensure accountability and global scientific guidance and consensus, we call for the establishment of the Independent Panel on Antimicrobial Access and Resistance and the support of leaders from low-income and middle-income countries.

Finding logic models for sustainable marine development that deliver on social equity.

Sustainable development is often represented as contributing to desirable outcomes across economic, environmental, and social goals, yet policies and interventions attempting to deliver sustainable development often disagree on the order in which these categories of goals should be addressed. In this Essay, we identify and review 5 approaches (called logic models) for sustainable development in ocean systems based on existing policies and interventions and consider the evidence for their contributions to equity-the ultimate goal of sustainable development according to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Two of the 5 logic models prioritize economic growth and lead to social and environmental benefits, 2 prioritize environmental health as a prerequisite for sustainable economic and social benefits, and the final logic model is community driven and prioritizes social dimensions. Looking towards the 2030 maturation of the SDGs, we will need to understand what models are best suited to deliver on equity gains and prevent future inequities in development and how best to operationalize them.

Living in relationship with the Ocean to transform governance in the UN Ocean Decade.

Humanity's relationship with the Ocean needs to be transformed to effectively address the multitude of governance crises facing the Ocean, including overfishing, climate change, pollution, and habitat destruction. Earth law, including Rights of Nature, provides a pathway to center humanity as a part of Nature and transform our relationship from one of dominion and separateness towards holism and mutual enhancement. Within the Earth law framework, an Ocean-centered approach views humanity as interconnected with the Ocean, recognizes societies' collective duty and reciprocal responsibility to protect and conserve the Ocean, and puts aside short-term gain to respect and protect future generations of all life and the Ocean's capacity to regenerate and sustain natural cycles. This Essay presents Ocean-centered governance as an approach to help achieve the 10 challenges for collective impact put forward as part of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development and therefore living in a harmonious relationship with the Ocean.

A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal.

To understand how global warming can be kept well below 2 degrees Celsius and even 1.5 degrees Celsius, climate policy uses scenarios that describe how society could reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. However, current scenarios have a key weakness: they typically focus on reaching specific climate goals in 2100. This choice may encourage risky pathways that delay action, reach higher-than-acceptable mid-century warming, and rely on net removal of carbon dioxide thereafter to undo their initial shortfall in reductions of emissions. Here we draw on insights from physical science to propose a scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a specific maximum level with either temperature stabilization or reversal thereafter. The ambition of climate action until carbon neutrality determines peak warming, and can be followed by a variety of long-term states with different sustainability implications. The approach proposed here closely mirrors the intentions of the United Nations Paris Agreement, and makes questions of intergenerational equity into explicit design choices.

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017.

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Enhancing global insight into AMR spread and generation: prospects and limitations of the WHO and quadripartite research agendas.

In Summer 2023, the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)-United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) WHO-World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) Quadripartite published two separate research agendas on antimicrobial resistance (AMR). While the publication of these research agendas on AMR creates a significant opportunity to align research priorities internationally, we emphasize a number of limitations. Firstly, the production of two separate AMR research agendas, in human health and One Health, rather than one integrated research agenda, risks the continued deprioritization of the One Health agenda. Furthermore, neither research agenda addressed the need to study the relationship between climate change and AMR despite growing evidence to suggest this may be significant. Finally, there are also missed opportunities in directing the study of appropriate treatment regimens and in clarifying the overall most resource-efficient path to combatting AMR. Moving forward, the international research agenda for AMR needs to be continually redefined in an inclusive, transparent and independent manner. This could be the task of the proposed, but so far not realized, Independent Panel on Evidence for Action against AMR.

Assessing the WHO-UNICEF primary health-care measurement framework; Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

Objective: To assess the availability of information on indicators of the World Health Organization and United Nations Children's Fund primary health-care measurement framework in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka and to outline the opportunities for and challenges to using the framework in these countries. Methods: We reviewed global and national data repositories for quantitative indicators of the framework and conducted a desk review of country documents for qualitative indicators in February-April 2023. We assessed data sources and cross-sectional survey tools to suggest possible sources of information on framework indicators that were not currently reported in the countries. We also identified specific indicators outside the framework on which information is collected in the countries and which could be used to measure primary health-care performance. Findings: Data on 54% (32/59) of the quantitative indicators were partially or completely available for the countries, ranging from 41% (24/59) in Pakistan to 64% (38/59) in Nepal. Information on 41% (66/163) of the qualitative subindicators could be acquired through desk reviews of country-specific documents. Information on input indicators was more readily available than on process and output indicators. The feasibility of acquiring information on the unreported indicators was moderate to high through adaptation of data collection instruments. Conclusion: The primary health-care measurement framework provides a platform to readily assess and track the performance of primary health care. Countries should improve the completeness, quality and use of existing data for strengthening of primary health care.

Context and Perspectives for Establishing a Novel Database for Protein Quality of Human Foods, as Proposed by a Joint Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations/International Atomic Energy Agency Expert Technical Meeting in October 2022.

United Nations agencies have a long history of leading work on establishing global human nutrient requirements. Dietary protein contributes to metabolism and homeostasis and plays an essential role in human health for growth, maintenance, reproduction, and immune function (or immunity). Accurately defining the quantity and quality of protein provided by foods and diets required to meet human nutritional needs is essential to achieving global environmental and nutrition goals. There have been many scientific developments related to protein quality over the past decades, with the preferred method being the scoring approach that relates the capacity of protein sources to provide an adequate amount and proportion of nitrogen and indispensable amino acids (IAAs) in a bioavailable form (often referred to as digestibility). Questions surrounding the scoring approach and IAA metabolic availability have been discussed during past and recent expert consultations. Recently, an Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations/International Atomic Energy Agency technical meeting, held in Vienna, 10-13 October, 2022, reviewed and updated evidence and related methods on protein requirements and protein quality assessment and designed a framework for the development of a Protein Digestibility Database to aid dialog on the evaluation of protein quality and protein sufficiency in different populations. The database should be a living document and align with national food compositional databases.

Interventions targeting social determinants of mental disorders and the Sustainable Development Goals: a systematic review of reviews.

Globally, mental disorders account for almost 20% of disease burden and there is growing evidence that mental disorders are socially determined. Tackling the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs), which address social determinants of mental disorders, may be an effective way to reduce the global burden of mental disorders. We conducted a systematic review of reviews to examine the evidence base for interventions that map onto the UN SDGs and seek to improve mental health through targeting known social determinants of mental disorders. We included 101 reviews in the final review, covering demographic, economic, environmental events, neighborhood, and sociocultural domains. This review presents interventions with the strongest evidence base for the prevention of mental disorders and highlights synergies where addressing the UN SDGs can be beneficial for mental health.