The Role of Seed Users in Nurturing an Online Health Community for Smoking Cessation Among People With HIV/AIDS.

BACKGROUND: To nurture a new online community for health behavior change, a fruitful strategy is to recruit "seed users" to create content and encourage participation. PURPOSE: This study evaluated the impact of support from seed users in an online community for smoking cessation among people living with HIV/AIDS and explored the linguistic characteristics of their interactions. METHODS: These secondary analyses examined data from a randomized trial of a smoking cessation intervention for HIV+ smokers delivered via an online health community (OHC). The analytic sample comprised n = 188 participants randomized to the intervention arm who participated in the community. Independent variables were OHC interactions categorized by participant interlocutor type (study participant, seed user) and interaction type (active, passive). The primary outcome was biochemically verified 7-day abstinence from cigarettes measured 3 months post-randomization; 30-day abstinence was examined for robustness. RESULTS: Logistic regression models showed that participants' interactions with seed users were a positive predictor of abstinence but interactions with other study participants were not. Specifically, the odds of abstinence increased as the number of posts received from seed users increased. Exploratory linguistic analyses revealed that seed users wrote longer comments which included more frequent use of "we" and "you" pronouns and that study participants users used more first-person singular pronouns ("I"). CONCLUSIONS: Seeding a community at its inception and nurturing its growth through seed users may be a scalable way to foster behavior change among OHC members. These findings have implications for the design and management of an OHC capable of promoting smoking cessation.

Online health communities (OHCs) are a popular means for people with similar health concerns to exchange information and support. The success of OHCs depends on members' active participation and on the formation of meaningful relationships. Jumpstarting a new OHC with active members (seed users) can promote engagement and foster its growth. Using data from a multisite randomized controlled trial of a web-based smoking cessation intervention developed specifically for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWH), we examined whether support provided by seed users in the OHC was a stronger predictor of abstinence from smoking compared with support from other tobacco users who are also trying to quit. These secondary analyses focused on 188 urban, predominantly Black PLWH who smoked that were randomized to the intervention arm and participated in the online community. The primary outcome was biochemically verified 7-day abstinence from cigarettes measured 3 months following study enrollment. Receiving support from seed users was a positive predictor of abstinence among smokers in the trial whereas interactions with other study participants did not relate to abstinence. These findings suggest that for a new OHC, seed users can be critical for generating engagement and promoting health behavior change.

Effect of Messaging Content on Engagement With a Short Messaging Service for Perioperative Smoking Cessation.

INTRODUCTION: We determined whether a tobacco cessation intervention targeting brief perioperative abstinence ("quit for a bit") increased engagement of surgical patients with treatment compared with an intervention targeting long-term postoperative abstinence ("quit for good"). AIMS AND METHODS: Surgical patients who smoke were stratified according to intended duration of postoperative abstinence, and then randomized within strata to receive either a "quit for a bit" or a "quit for good" intervention. Both employed initial brief counseling and short message service (SMS) to deliver treatment up to 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome of treatment engagement was defined as the rate at which subjects actively responded to system requests delivered via SMS. RESULTS: The engagement index did not differ between intervention groups (median [25th, 75th] of 23.7% [8.8, 46.0] for "quit for a bit" group (n = 48) and 22.2% [4.8, 46.0] for "quit for good" group (n = 50), p = .74), nor did the proportion of patients continuing SMS use after study completion (33% and 28%, respectively). Exploratory abstinence outcomes on the morning of surgery and 7 and 30 days after surgery did not differ between groups. Program satisfaction was high in both groups and did not differ. There was no significant interaction between intended abstinence duration and any outcome, ie, alignment of intent with intervention did not affect engagement. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco cessation treatment delivered via SMS was well accepted by surgical patients. Tailoring an SMS intervention to focus on the benefits of short-term abstinence for surgical patients did not increase engagement in treatment or perioperative abstinence rates. IMPLICATIONS: Treatment of surgical patients for tobacco use is efficacious and reduces postoperative complications. However, implementation in clinical practice has proved challenging, and new methods of engaging these patients in cessation treatment are needed. We found that tobacco use treatment delivered via SMS was feasible and well utilized by surgical patients. Tailoring an SMS intervention to focus on the benefits of short-term abstinence for surgical patients did not increase engagement in treatment or perioperative abstinence rates. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: NCT03839043. Registry URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03839043.

E-cigarette and combusted tobacco abstinence among young adults: Secondary analyses from a U.S.-based randomized controlled trial of vaping cessation.

OBJECTIVE: To examine patterns of abstinence from e-cigarettes, combusted tobacco products (CTPs), both, or neither among young adults enrolled in a U.S.-based randomized trial of a text message vaping cessation intervention. METHODS: At baseline, 1829 young adult e-cigarette users were categorized as Exclusive E-cigarette Users (no past 30-day CTP use; n = 1036, 56.6%) or Dual Users (past 30-day CTP use; n = 793, 43.4%). Four groups were defined at 7-months: 1) Dual Abstinent, 2) Exclusive Vaping, 3) Exclusive CTP Use, and 4) Dual Users. The proportion of participants who were Dual Abstinent was the outcome of interest. RESULTS: At follow-up, 22.1% (95% CI: 20.3, 24.1) of participants were Dual Abstinent, 44.8% (95% CI: 42.5, 47.1) reported Exclusive Vaping, 6.3% (95% CI: 5.2, 7.5) reported Exclusive CTP Use, and 26.8% (95% CI: 24.8, 28.9) were Dual Users. A higher proportion of participants randomized to Intervention were Dual Abstinent (25.9%, 95% CI 23.1, 28.9) compared to Control (18.5%, 95% CI 16.0, 21.1; p = .0002). Analyses of treatment effects on dual abstinence by baseline tobacco product use favored Intervention over Control among both Exclusive E-cigarette Users (p = .019) and Dual Users (p = .0014). CONCLUSION: A text message vaping cessation intervention was effective in promoting dual abstinence from e-cigarettes and CTPs among young adults. The advantage of treatment over control was equivalent for Exclusive E-cigarette Users and Dual Users. Rates of dual abstinence were higher among exclusive vapers than dual users, signaling the need for more research to optimize cessation programs for poly-tobacco users.

Correction: Optimizing Text Messages to Promote Engagement With Internet Smoking Cessation Treatment: Results From a Factorial Screening Experiment.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/17734.].

Optimizing Text Messages to Promote Engagement With Internet Smoking Cessation Treatment: Results From a Factorial Screening Experiment.

BACKGROUND: Smoking remains a leading cause of preventable death and illness. Internet interventions for smoking cessation have the potential to significantly impact public health, given their broad reach and proven effectiveness. Given the dose-response association between engagement and behavior change, identifying strategies to promote engagement is a priority across digital health interventions. Text messaging is a proven smoking cessation treatment modality and a powerful strategy to increase intervention engagement in other areas of health, but it has not been tested as an engagement strategy for a digital cessation intervention. OBJECTIVE: This study examined the impact of 4 experimental text message design factors on adult smokers' engagement with an internet smoking cessation program. METHODS: We conducted a 2×2×2×2 full factorial screening experiment wherein 864 participants were randomized to 1 of 16 experimental conditions after registering with a free internet smoking cessation program and enrolling in its automated text message program. Experimental factors were personalization (on/off), integration between the web and text message platforms (on/off), dynamic tailoring of intervention content based on user engagement (on/off), and message intensity (tapered vs abrupt drop-off). Primary outcomes were 3-month measures of engagement (ie, page views, time on site, and return visits to the website) as well as use of 6 interactive features of the internet program. All metrics were automatically tracked; there were no missing data. RESULTS: Main effects were detected for integration and dynamic tailoring. Integration significantly increased interactive feature use by participants, whereas dynamic tailoring increased the number of features used and page views. No main effects were found for message intensity or personalization alone, although several synergistic interactions with other experimental features were observed. Synergistic effects, when all experimental factors were active, resulted in the highest rates of interactive feature use and the greatest proportion of participants at high levels of engagement. Measured in terms of standardized mean differences (SMDs), effects on interactive feature use were highest for Build Support System (SMD 0.56; 95% CI 0.27 to 0.81), Choose Quit Smoking Aid (SMD 0.38; 95% CI 0.10 to 0.66), and Track Smoking Triggers (SMD 0.33; 95% CI 0.05 to 0.61). Among the engagement metrics, the largest effects were on overall feature utilization (SMD 0.33; 95% CI 0.06 to 0.59) and time on site (SMD 0.29; 95% CI 0.01 to 0.57). As no SMD >0.30 was observed for main effects on any outcome, results suggest that for some outcomes, the combined intervention was stronger than individual factors alone. CONCLUSIONS: This factorial experiment demonstrates the effectiveness of text messaging as a strategy to increase engagement with an internet smoking cessation intervention, resulting in greater overall intervention dose and greater exposure to the core components of tobacco dependence treatment that can promote abstinence. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02585206; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02585206. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.1136/bmjopen-2015-010687.

Characteristics and Reach Equity of Policies Restricting Flavored Tobacco Product Sales in the United States.

In 2009, flavored cigarettes (except menthol) were banned in the United States, but other flavored tobacco products (FTPs) were allowed. Women, populations of color, youth, sexual minority, and low-socioeconomic status populations disproportionately use FTPs. Localities have passed sales restrictions on FTPs that may reduce disparities if vulnerable populations are reached. This study assessed the extent to which FTP restrictions reached these subgroups ("reach equity"). We identified 189 U.S. jurisdictions with FTP policies as of December 31, 2018. We linked jurisdictions with demographics of race/ethnicity, gender, age, partnered same-sex households and household poverty, and stratified by policy strength. We calculated Reach Ratios (ReRas) to assess reach equity among subgroups covered by FTP policies relative to their U.S. population representation. Flavor policies covered 6.3% of the U.S. population (20 million individuals) across seven states; 0.9% were covered by strong policies (12.7% of policies). ReRas indicated favorable reach equity to young adults, women, Hispanics, African Americans, Asians, partnered same-sex households, and those living below poverty. Youth, American Indians/Alaska Natives (AIAN) and Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders (NHPI) were underrepresented. Strong policies had favorable reach equity to young adults, those living below poverty, Asians, NHPIs, individuals of 2+ races, and partnered same-sex households, but unfavorable reach equity to women, youth, Hispanic, AIAN, and African American populations. U.S. flavor policies have greater reach to many, but not all, subgroups at risk of FTP use. Increased enactment of strong policies to populations not covered by flavor policies is warranted to ensure at-risk subgroups sufficiently benefit.

Discussions of Alcohol Use in an Online Social Network for Smoking Cessation: Analysis of Topics, Sentiment, and Social Network Centrality.

BACKGROUND: Few Internet smoking cessation programs specifically address the impact of alcohol use during a quit attempt, despite its common role in relapse. This study used topic modeling to describe the most prevalent topics about alcohol in an online smoking cessation community, the prevalence of negative sentiment expressed about alcohol use in the context of a quit attempt (i.e., alcohol should be limited or avoided during a quit attempt) within topics, and the degree to which topics differed by user social connectivity within the network. METHODS: Data were analyzed from posts from the online community of a larger Internet cessation program, spanning January 1, 2012 to May 31, 2015 and included records of 814,258 online posts. Posts containing alcohol-related content (n = 7,199) were coded via supervised machine learning text classification to determine whether the post expressed negative sentiment about drinking in the context of a quit attempt. Correlated topic modeling (CTM) was used to identify a set of 10 topics of at least 1% prevalence based on the frequency of word occurrences among alcohol-related posts; the distribution of negative sentiment and user social network connectivity was examined across the most salient topics. RESULTS: Three salient topics (with prevalence ≥10%) emerged from the CTM, with distinct themes of (i) cravings and temptations; (ii) parallel between nicotine addiction and alcoholism; and (iii) celebratory discussions of quit milestones including "virtual" alcohol use and toasts. Most topics skewed toward nonnegative sentiment about alcohol. The prevalence of each topic differed by users' social connectivity in the network. CONCLUSIONS: Future work should examine whether outcomes in Internet interventions are improved by tailoring social network content to match user characteristics, topics, and network behavior.

Twelve Million Smokers Look Online for Smoking Cessation Help Annually: Health Information National Trends Survey Data, 2005-2017.

Background: This study quantified the potential reach of Internet smoking cessation interventions to support calculations of potential population impact (reach × effectiveness). Using a nationally representative survey, we calculated the number and proportion of adult smokers that look for cessation assistance online each year. Methods: Five waves (2005, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017) of the National Cancer Institute's Health Information National Trends Survey were examined. The survey asked US adults whether they ever go online to use the Internet, World Wide Web, or email and had used the Internet to look for information about quitting smoking within the past 12 months. We estimated the proportion and number of (1) all US adult smokers, and (2) online US adult smokers that searched for cessation information online. Cross-year comparisons were assessed with logistic regression. Results: The proportion of all smokers who searched online for cessation information increased over the past decade (p < .001): 16.5% in 2005 (95% CI = 13.2% to 20.4%), 20.9% in 2011 (95% CI = 15.55% to 28.0%), 25.6% in 2013 (95% CI = 19.7% to 33.0%), 23.4% in 2015 (95% CI = 16.9% to 31.0%), and 35.9% in 2017 (95% CI = 24.8% to 48.9%). Among online smokers only, approximately one third searched online for cessation information each year from 2005 through 2015. In 2017, that proportion increased to 43.7% (95% CI = 29.7% to 58.7%), when an estimated 12.4 million online smokers searched for cessation help. Conclusions: More than one third of all smokers turn to the Internet for help quitting each year, representing more than 12 million US adults. Implications: This research provides contemporary estimates for the reach of Internet interventions for smoking cessation. Such estimates are necessary to estimate the population impact of Internet interventions on quit rates. The research finds more than 12 million US smokers searched online for cessation information in 2017.

Inferring Smoking Status from User Generated Content in an Online Cessation Community.

Introduction: User generated content (UGC) is a valuable but underutilized source of information about individuals who participate in online cessation interventions. This study represents a first effort to passively detect smoking status among members of an online cessation program using UGC. Methods: Secondary data analysis was performed on data from 826 participants in a web-based smoking cessation randomized trial that included an online community. Domain experts from the online community reviewed each post and comment written by participants and attempted to infer the author's smoking status at the time it was written. Inferences from UGC were validated by comparison with self-reported 30-day point prevalence abstinence (PPA). Following validation, the impact of this method was evaluated across all individuals and time points in the study period. Results: Of the 826 participants in the analytic sample, 719 had written at least one post from which content inference was possible. Among participants for whom unambiguous smoking status was inferred during the 30 days preceding their 3-month follow-up survey, concordance with self-report was almost perfect (kappa = 0.94). Posts indicating abstinence tended to be written shortly after enrollment (median = 14 days). Conclusions: Passive inference of smoking status from UGC in online cessation communities is possible and highly reliable for smokers who actively produce content. These results lay the groundwork for further development of observational research tools and intervention innovations. Implications: A proof-of-concept methodology for inferring smoking status from user generated content in online cessation communities is presented and validated. Content inference of smoking status makes a key cessation variable available for use in observational designs. This method provides a powerful tool for researchers interested in online cessation interventions and establishes a foundation for larger scale application via machine learning.

Feasibility of a Perioperative Text Messaging Smoking Cessation Program for Surgical Patients.

Although surgical patients who smoke could benefit from perioperative abstinence, few currently receive support. This pilot study determined the feasibility and acceptability of a perioperative text messaging smoking cessation program. One hundred patients (73% of eligible patients approached) enrolled in a surgery-specific messaging service, receiving 1-3 daily messages about smoking and surgical recovery for 30 days. Only 17 patients unenrolled, the majority responded to prompting messages, and satisfaction with the program was high. Surgical patients are amenable to text message-based interventions; a future efficacy trial of text messaging smoking cessation support in surgical patients is warranted.

Mining User-Generated Content in an Online Smoking Cessation Community to Identify Smoking Status: A Machine Learning Approach.

Online smoking cessation communities help hundreds of thousands of smokers quit smoking and stay abstinent each year. Content shared by users of such communities may contain important information that could enable more effective and personally tailored cessation treatment recommendations. This study demonstrates a novel approach to determine individuals' smoking status by applying machine learning techniques to classify user-generated content in an online cessation community. Study data were from BecomeAnEX.org, a large, online smoking cessation community. We extracted three types of novel features from a post: domain-specific features, author-based features, and thread-based features. These features helped to improve the smoking status identification (quit vs. not) performance by 9.7% compared to using only text features of a post's content. In other words, knowledge from domain experts, data regarding the post author's patterns of online engagement, and other community member reactions to the post can help to determine the focal post author's smoking status, over and above the actual content of a focal post. We demonstrated that machine learning methods can be applied to user-generated data from online cessation communities to validly and reliably discern important user characteristics, which could aid decision support on intervention tailoring.

Improving Adherence to Smoking Cessation Treatment: Smoking Outcomes in a Web-based Randomized Trial.

Background: Partial adherence in Internet smoking cessation interventions presents treatment and evaluation challenges. Increasing adherence may improve outcomes. Purpose: To present smoking outcomes from an Internet randomized trial of two strategies to encourage adherence to tobacco dependence treatment components: (i) a social network (SN) strategy to integrate smokers into an online community and (ii) free nicotine replacement therapy (NRT). In addition to intent-to-treat analyses, we used novel statistical methods to distinguish the impact of treatment assignment from treatment utilization. Methods: A total of 5,290 current smokers on a cessation website (WEB) were randomized to WEB, WEB + SN, WEB + NRT, or WEB + SN + NRT. The main outcome was 30-day point prevalence abstinence at 3 and 9 months post-randomization. Adherence measures included self-reported medication use (meds), and website metrics of skills training (sk) and community use (comm). Inverse Probability of Retention Weighting and Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting jointly addressed dropout and treatment selection. Propensity weights were used to calculate Average Treatment effects on the Treated. Results: Treatment assignment analyses showed no effects on abstinence for either adherence strategy. Abstinence rates were 25.7%-32.2% among participants that used all three treatment components (sk+comm +meds).Treatment utilization analyses revealed that among such participants, sk+comm+meds yielded large percentage point increases in 3-month abstinence rates over sk alone across arms: WEB = 20.6 (95% CI = 10.8, 30.4), WEB + SN = 19.2 (95% CI = 11.1, 27.3), WEB + NRT = 13.1 (95% CI = 4.1, 22.0), and WEB + SN + NRT = 20.0 (95% CI = 12.2, 27.7). Conclusions: Novel propensity weighting approaches can serve as a model for establishing efficacy of Internet interventions and yield important insights about mechanisms. Clinical Trials.gov: NCT01544153.

Geographic Representativeness of a Web-Based Smoking Cessation Intervention: Reach Equity Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cigarette smoking is the leading cause of preventable death and disease in the United States. Smoking prevalence is higher in rural areas than in metropolitan areas, due partly to differences in access to cessation treatment. With internet use at 89% of all US adults, digital approaches could increase use of cessation treatment and reduce smoking. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the extent to which smokers from rural areas use a digital cessation resource. We compared the geographic distribution of registered users of a free Web-based smoking cessation program with the geographic distribution of US smokers. METHODS: We mapped user-provided ZIP codes to Rural-Urban Continuum Codes. A total of 59,050 of 118,574 users (49.80%) provided valid ZIP codes from 2013 to 2017. We used US National Survey of Drug Use and Health data from 2013 to 2017 to compare the geographic distribution of our sample of Web-based cessation users with the geographic distribution of US smokers. Reach ratios and 95% confidence intervals quantified the extent to which rural smokers' representation in the sample was proportionate to their representation in the national smoking population. Reach ratios less than 1 indicate underrepresentation. RESULTS: Smokers from rural areas were significantly underrepresented in 2013 (reach ratio 0.89, 95% CI 0.87-0.91) and 2014 (reach ratio 0.89, 95% CI 0.86-0.92), proportionally represented in 2015 (reach ratio 1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.14) and 2016 (reach ratio 1.03, 95% CI 0.94-1.14), and proportionally overrepresented in 2017 (reach ratio 1.16, 95% CI 1.12-1.21). Smokers from Large Metro areas were proportionally represented in 2013 and 2014 but underrepresented in 2015 (reach ratio 0.97, 95% CI 0.94-1.00), 2016 (reach ratio 0.89, 95% CI 0.85-0.94), and 2017 (reach ratio 0.89, 95% CI 0.86-0.91). CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that smokers from rural areas are more than proportionally reached by a long-standing digital cessation intervention. The underrepresentation of smokers from Large Metro areas warrants further study.

How US Smokers Refer to E-cigarettes: An Examination of User-Generated Posts From a Web-Based Smoking Cessation Intervention, 2008-2015.

INTRODUCTION: A challenge in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System (ENDS) research is how to refer to these devices in ways that are meaningful to current or potential users. The objectives of this study were to: (1) describe the frequency of ENDS terms in a web-based smoking cessation intervention; and (2) determine whether terms vary by US geographic region and date. METHODS: Data were drawn from public posts between 2008-2015 on http://BecomeAnEX.org and limited to US users. We conducted "exact" and "fuzzy" searches to find posts containing ENDS keywords using custom Python scripts, and extracted geocoding data and date for each post. We examined counts and frequencies of ENDS terms by unique user, by unique user and region, and by unique user and date. RESULTS: We identified 1023 unique US website users who had written a post containing one or more ENDS keywords. Posters were majority female (79%), educated (78% attended at least some college), and had a median age of 47 years. Overall, 92% of ENDS posters employed the term "e-cigarette" or a derivation. Derivations of "vape" became increasingly popular in 2013, whereas "NJoy" and "blu" were employed by fewer than 2% of posters. We found no variation in frequency of ENDS terms by US region. CONCLUSIONS: Researchers may have confidence that "e-cigarette" and "vape" are recognizable terms among US treatment-seeking smokers. Conversely, terms such as "ENDS," commonly employed by researchers and public health advocates, are not used by smokers and may be an impediment to tobacco control research. IMPLICATIONS: Researchers may have confidence that "e-cigarette," and, to a lesser extent, "vape" are recognizable terms among US adult smokers referring to ENDS (including accessories, brand names, and actions). Conversely, terms such as "electronic nicotine delivery systems," commonly employed by researchers and public health advocates, are not used by US smokers and may be an impediment to tobacco control research and practice.

Improving Adherence to Smoking Cessation Treatment: Intervention Effects in a Web-Based Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Web-based smoking cessation interventions can deliver evidence-based treatments to a wide swath of the population, but effectiveness is often limited by insufficient adherence to proven treatment components. This study evaluated the impact of a social network (SN) intervention and free nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) on adherence to evidence-based components of smoking cessation treatment in the context of a Web-based intervention. METHODS: A sample of adult U.S. smokers (N = 5290) was recruited via BecomeAnEX.org, a free smoking cessation Web site. Smokers were randomized to one of four arms: (1) an interactive, evidence-based smoking cessation Web site (WEB) alone; (2) WEB in conjunction with an SN intervention designed to integrate participants into the online community (WEB+SN); (3) WEB plus free NRT (WEB+NRT); and (4) the combination of all treatments (WEB+SN+NRT). Adherence outcomes assessed at 3-month follow-up were as follows: Web site utilization metrics, use of skills training components, intratreatment social support, and pharmacotherapy use. RESULTS: WEB+SN+NRT outperformed all others on Web site utilization metrics, use of practical counseling tools, intratreatment social support, and NRT use. It was the only intervention to promote the sending of private messages and the viewing of community pages over WEB alone. Both social network arms outperformed WEB on most metrics of online community engagement. Both NRT arms showed higher medication use compared to WEB alone. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated the effectiveness of two approaches for improving adherence to evidence-based components of smoking cessation treatment. Integrated approaches to medication provision and social network engagement can enhance adherence to components known to improve cessation. IMPLICATIONS: This study demonstrated that an integrated approach to medication provision and social network integration, when delivered through an online program, can enhance adherence across all three recommended components of an evidence-based smoking cessation program (skills training, social support, and pharmacotherapy use). Nicotine replacement therapy-when provided as part of an integrated program-increases adherence to other program elements, which in turn augment its own therapeutic effects. An explicit focus on approaches to improve treatment adherence is an important first step to identifying leverage points for optimizing intervention effectiveness.

E-cigarette use 1†year later in a population-based prospective cohort.

BACKGROUND: Population prevalence estimates of electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) use range considerably based on the operational definition of 'use'. Recently, we investigated the utility of 'use frequency' for restricting prevalence estimates to non-experimenters in adult populations. Results suggested that individuals reporting use on ≤5 days in the past 30 were likely to discontinue use, and should be excluded from estimates of population prevalence. OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the predictive validity of ENDS use frequency as a measure for likelihood of continued use, and cigarette smoking abstinence. METHODS: We recontacted smokers and recent quitters who participated in the random digit dial 2014 Minnesota Adult Tobacco Survey. At ∼1 year follow-up, we reassessed ENDS use and cigarette smoking among N=601 respondents. RESULTS: Fewer than half of respondents who reported using ENDSs on 1-5 days in the past 30 at baseline reported any ENDS use 1 year later (27%, 95% CI (18% to 40%)). Conversely, more than half of respondents who reported daily use at baseline also reported subsequent use at follow-up (89%, 95% CI (78% to 100%)). The likelihood of subsequent ENDS use by respondents using ENDSs on more than 5 days but less than daily did not significantly differ from chance (37%, 95% CI (22% to 61%)). CONCLUSIONS: For adult population surveillance surveys, defining current use prevalence as 'any use in the past 30 days' includes many individuals who can be expected to discontinue use within 1 year. Until measures of ENDS use become standardised, researchers should choose definitions carefully because different definitions are likely to yield different results.

Slowing Menthol's Progress: Differential Impact of a Tobacco Tax Increase on Cigarette Sales.

OBJECTIVES: The proportion of smokers who use menthol cigarettes has increased nationally since 2004, while use of non-menthol cigarettes is declining, suggesting that menthol may be undermining the effectiveness of population level tobacco control efforts. In 2013 Minnesota passed a $1.75 cigarette tax increase. We investigated whether sales of menthol and non-menthol cigarettes were differentially affected by the price increase. METHODS: Cigarette sales data from convenience stores in the Minneapolis, Minnesota, metro area from January 2012, through May 2015, were obtained. Proportion of sales accounted for by menthol cigarettes was analyzed with segmented regression. RESULTS: Before the price increase, menthol cigarettes gained 2.21% (1.17, 3.12) of market share annually. Following the price increase, the trend slowed to 0.26% (-0.78, 1.56) annually. The slope before the price increase was significantly positive; the slope following the price increase did not significantly differ from zero. CONCLUSIONS: Sales of menthol cigarettes declined less rapidly than non-menthol cigarettes before the price increase. Sales of menthol and non-menthol cigarettes declined at more comparable rates after the price increase. Increasing the price of tobacco may help ensure declines in consumption are more evenly distributed across menthol and non-menthol cigarettes. IMPLICATIONS: Using sales data, we found that a trend of increasing market share for menthol cigarettes was significantly reduced by a $1.75 cigarette price increase. These results suggest that cigarette price increases, a core tobacco control policy, may have a greater effect on menthol smokers than non-menthol smokers.

Deniers and Admitters: Examining Smoker Identities in a Changing Tobacco Landscape.

INTRODUCTION: Smoking prevalence has declined considerably over the past 30 years. This decline has coincided with a growing stigma against smokers and a trend toward nondaily or occasional smoking. Some individuals now deny being a smoker despite current cigarette use-i.e., "deniers"; conversely, occasional smokers who admit to being a smoker are defined as "admitters." Although the "denier" phenomenon has been the focus of recent research, no studies have examined smoker identity in the context of emerging tobacco products and ongoing, statewide tobacco control programs. Recent data from the 2014 Minnesota Adult Tobacco Survey provided an opportunity to address these research gaps. METHOD: Using the Minnesota Adult Tobacco Survey, participants were 242 adults who reported smoking 100 cigarettes lifetime, currently smoking "some days," and past 30-day smoking. Questions also assessed smoker identity, emerging product use and perceptions, and changes in smoking behavior in response to a recent statewide tobacco tax increase. RESULTS: Regression models revealed no difference in e-cigarette or hookah use between deniers and admitters, but deniers were more likely to perceive that hookah use was less harmful than smoking cigarettes. In response to the tax increase, we found that admitters were more likely than deniers to report thinking about quitting, reducing cigarette amount, and making a quit attempt. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that deniers perceive lower harm from using tobacco products. Tax increases may be less effective at motivating quit attempts in deniers compared to admitters, implying that cessation programs tailored to specific smoking identities could usefully complement tax increases. IMPLICATIONS: Findings from this study suggest that tobacco tax increases should be coordinated with health promotion interventions to address occasional and social smoking. The denier phenomenon in particular is an important identity-based construct that population-level public health practice should consider in order to design effective tobacco control interventions. In addition, findings from our study and previous research suggest that occasional or social smokers who deny the smoker identity may be slowing progress in reducing smoking rates. Interventions targeting occasional smokers, and in particular, deniers, are needed to accelerate cessation efforts.

How to define e-cigarette prevalence? Finding clues in the use frequency distribution.

OBJECTIVE: E-cigarette use has rapidly increased. Recent studies define prevalence using a variety of measures; competing definitions challenge cross-study comparison. We sought to understand patterns of use by investigating the number of days out of the past 30 days when adults had used e-cigarettes. DESIGN: We used the 2014 Minnesota Adult Tobacco Survey, a random digit dial population survey (n=9304 adults). Questions included ever using e-cigarettes, number of days used in the past 30 days and reasons for use. Smoking status was determined by combustible cigarette use. Histograms of e-cigarette use were visually inspected for current, former and never smokers with any 30-day e-cigarette use. Different definitions of current use were compared. RESULTS: Use ≤5 days in the past 30 days demarcated a cluster of infrequent users at the low end of the distribution. Among those with use in the past 30 days, infrequent users were the majorities of current (59%) and never smokers (89.5%), but fewer than half of former smokers (43.2%). Infrequent users were more likely to cite curiosity and less likely to cite quitting/cutting down other tobacco use as reasons for use. CONCLUSIONS: Defining adult prevalence as any use in the past 30 days may include experimenters unlikely to continue use, and is of questionable utility for population surveillance of public health trends over time. Defining prevalence as >5 days excludes those infrequent users.

A Multirelational Social Network Analysis of an Online Health Community for Smoking Cessation.

BACKGROUND: Online health communities (OHCs) provide a convenient and commonly used way for people to connect around shared health experiences, exchange information, and receive social support. Users often interact with peers via multiple communication methods, forming a multirelational social network. Use of OHCs is common among smokers, but to date, there have been no studies on users' online interactions via different means of online communications and how such interactions are related to smoking cessation. Such information can be retrieved in multirelational social networks and could be useful in the design and management of OHCs. OBJECTIVE: To examine the social network structure of an OHC for smoking cessation using a multirelational approach, and to explore links between subnetwork position (ie, centrality) and smoking abstinence. METHODS: We used NetworkX to construct 4 subnetworks based on users' interactions via blogs, group discussions, message boards, and private messages. We illustrated topological properties of each subnetwork, including its degree distribution, density, and connectedness, and compared similarities among these subnetworks by correlating node centrality and measuring edge overlap. We also investigated coevolution dynamics of this multirelational network by analyzing tie formation sequences across subnetworks. In a subset of users who participated in a randomized, smoking cessation treatment trial, we conducted user profiling based on users' centralities in the 4 subnetworks and identified user groups using clustering techniques. We further examined 30-day smoking abstinence at 3 months postenrollment in relation to users' centralities in the 4 subnetworks. RESULTS: The 4 subnetworks have different topological characteristics, with message board having the most nodes (36,536) and group discussion having the highest network density (4.35×10(-3)). Blog and message board subnetworks had the most similar structures with an in-degree correlation of .45, out-degree correlation of .55, and Jaccard coefficient of .23 for edge overlap. A new tie in the group discussion subnetwork had the lowest probability of triggering subsequent ties among the same two users in other subnetworks: 6.33% (54,142/855,893) for 2-tie sequences and 2.13% (18,207/855,893) for 3-tie sequences. Users' centralities varied across the 4 subnetworks. Among a subset of users enrolled in a randomized trial, those with higher centralities across subnetworks generally had higher abstinence rates, although high centrality in the group discussion subnetwork was not associated with higher abstinence rates. CONCLUSIONS: A multirelational approach revealed insights that could not be obtained by analyzing the aggregated network alone, such as the ineffectiveness of group discussions in triggering social ties of other types, the advantage of blogs, message boards, and private messages in leading to subsequent social ties of other types, and the weak connection between one's centrality in the group discussion subnetwork and smoking abstinence. These insights have implications for the design and management of online social networks for smoking cessation.