Efficacy and Safety of Non-Vitamin-K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants Versus Warfarin Across the Spectrum of Body Mass Index and Body Weight: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis of 4 Randomized Clinical Trials of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy and safety of non-vitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) across the spectrum of body mass index (BMI) and body weight (BW) remain uncertain. METHODS: We analyzed data from COMBINE AF (A Collaboration Between Multiple Institutions to Better Investigate Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulant Use in Atrial Fibrillation), which pooled patient-level data from the 4 pivotal randomized trials of NOAC versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation. The primary efficacy and safety outcomes were stroke or systemic embolic events (stroke/SEE) and major bleeding, respectively; secondary outcomes were ischemic stroke/SEE, intracranial hemorrhage, death, and the net clinical outcome (stroke/SEE, major bleeding, or death). Each outcome was examined across BMI and BW. Because few patients had a BMI <18.5 kg/m2 (n=598), the primary analyses were restricted to those with a BMI ≥18.5 kg/m2. RESULTS: Among 58 464 patients, the median BMI was 28.3 (interquartile range, 25.2-32.2) kg/m2, and the median BW was 81.0 (interquartile range, 70.0-94.3) kg. The event probability of stroke/SEE was lower at a higher BMI irrespective of treatment, whereas the probability of major bleeding was lower at a higher BMI with warfarin but relatively unchanged across BMI with NOACs. NOACs reduced stroke/SEE overall (adjusted hazard ratio [HRadj], 0.80 [95% CI, 0.73-0.88]; P<0.001), with a generally consistent effect across BMI (Ptrend across HRs, 0.48). NOACs also reduced major bleeding overall (HRadj, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.82-0.94]; P<0.001), but with attenuation of the benefit at a higher BMI (trend test across BMI [Ptrend], 0.003). The overall treatment effects of NOACs versus warfarin for secondary outcomes were consistent across BMI, with the exception of the net clinical outcome and death. While these outcomes were overall reduced with NOACs (net clinical outcome, HRadj, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.87-0.95]; P<0.001; death, HRadj, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.86-0.97]; P=0.003), these benefits were attenuated at higher BMI (Ptrend, 0.001 and 0.08, respectively). All findings were qualitatively similar when analyzed across BW. CONCLUSIONS: The treatment effect of NOACs versus warfarin in atrial fibrillation is generally consistent for stroke/SEE across the spectrum of BMI and BW, whereas the reduction in major bleeding is attenuated in those with higher BMI or BW. Death and the net clinical outcome are overall reduced with NOACs over warfarin, although there remain uncertainties for these outcomes at a very high BMI and BW.

Association between COVID-19 convalescent plasma antibody levels and COVID-19 outcomes stratified by clinical status at presentation.

BACKGROUND: There is a need to understand the relationship between COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma (CCP) anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG levels and clinical outcomes to optimize CCP use. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between recipient baseline clinical status, clinical outcomes, and CCP antibody levels. METHODS: The study analyzed data from the COMPILE study, a meta-analysis of pooled individual patient data from 8 randomized clinical trials (RCTs) assessing the efficacy of CCP vs. control, in adults hospitalized for COVID-19 who were not receiving mechanical ventilation at randomization. SARS-CoV-2 IgG levels, referred to as 'dose' of CCP treatment, were retrospectively measured in donor sera or the administered CCP, semi-quantitatively using the VITROS Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG chemiluminescent immunoassay (Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics) with a signal-to-cutoff ratio (S/Co). The association between CCP dose and outcomes was investigated, treating dose as either continuous or categorized (higher vs. lower vs. control), stratified by recipient oxygen supplementation status at presentation. RESULTS: A total of 1714 participants were included in the study, 1138 control- and 576 CCP-treated patients for whom donor CCP anti-SARS-CoV2 antibody levels were available from the COMPILE study. For participants not receiving oxygen supplementation at baseline, higher-dose CCP (/control) was associated with a reduced risk of ventilation or death at day 14 (OR = 0.19, 95% CrI: [0.02, 1.70], posterior probability Pr(OR < 1) = 0.93) and day 28 mortality (OR = 0.27 [0.02, 2.53], Pr(OR < 1) = 0.87), compared to lower-dose CCP (/control) (ventilation or death at day 14 OR = 0.79 [0.07, 6.87], Pr(OR < 1) = 0.58; and day 28 mortality OR = 1.11 [0.10, 10.49], Pr(OR < 1) = 0.46), exhibiting a consistently positive CCP dose effect on clinical outcomes. For participants receiving oxygen at baseline, the dose-outcome relationship was less clear, although a potential benefit for day 28 mortality was observed with higher-dose CCP (/control) (OR = 0.66 [0.36, 1.13], Pr(OR < 1) = 0.93) compared to lower-dose CCP (/control) (OR = 1.14 [0.73, 1.78], Pr(OR < 1) = 0.28). CONCLUSION: Higher-dose CCP is associated with its effectiveness in patients not initially receiving oxygen supplementation, however, further research is needed to understand the interplay between CCP anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG levels and clinical outcome in COVID-19 patients initially receiving oxygen supplementation.

Evaluation of obstructive sleep apnea among consecutive patients with all patterns of atrial fibrillation using WatchPAT home sleep testing.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia encountered in clinical practice and is associated with significant morbidity, mortality, and financial burden. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is more common in individuals with AF and may impair the efficacy of rhythm control strategies including catheter ablation. However, the prevalence of undiagnosed OSA in all-comers with AF is unknown. DESIGN: This pragmatic, phase IV prospective cohort study will test 250-300 consecutive ambulatory AF patients with all patterns of atrial fibrillation (paroxysmal, persistent, and long-term persistent) and no prior sleep testing for OSA using the WatchPAT system, a disposable home sleep test (HST). The primary outcome of the study is the prevalence of undiagnosed OSA in all-comers with atrial fibrillation. RESULTS: Preliminary results from the initial pilot enrollment of approximately 15% (N = 38) of the planned sample size demonstrate a 79.0% prevalence of at least mild (AHI≥5) OSA or greater in consecutively enrolled patient with all patterns of AF. CONCLUSIONS: We report the design, methodology, and preliminary results of our study to define the prevalence of OSA in AF patients. This study will help inform approaches to OSA screening in patients with AF for which there is currently little practical guidance. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT05155813.

Sex, Permanent Drug Discontinuation, and Study Retention in Clinical Trials: Insights From the TIMI trials.

BACKGROUND: Women are underrepresented across cardiovascular clinical trials. Whether women are more likely than men to prematurely discontinue study drug or withdraw consent once enrolled in a clinical trial is unknown. METHODS: Eleven phase 3/4 TIMI (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction) trials were included (135 879 men and 51 812 women [28%]). The association between sex and premature study drug discontinuation and withdrawal of consent were examined by multivariable logistic regression after adjusting for potential confounders in each individual trial and combining the individual point estimates in random effects models. RESULTS: After adjusting for baseline differences, women had 22% higher odds of premature drug discontinuation (adjusted odds ratio [ORadj], 1.22 [95% CI, 1.16-1.28]; P<0.001) compared with men. Qualitatively consistent results were observed for women versus men in the placebo arms (ORadj, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.13-1.27]) and active therapy arms (ORadj, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.17-1.30)]; there was some evidence for regional heterogeneity (P interaction <0.001). Of those who stopped study drug prematurely, a similar proportion of men and women in the active arm stopped because of an adverse event (36% for both; P=0.60). Women were also more likely to withdraw consent compared with men (ORadj, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.17-1.36]; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Women were more likely than men to prematurely discontinue study drug and withdraw consent across cardiovascular outcome trials. Premature study drug discontinuation was not explained by baseline differences by sex or a higher proportion of adverse events. Future trials should better capture reasons for drug discontinuation and withdrawal of consent to understand barriers to continued study drug use and clinical trial participation, particularly among women.

Comparison of the Efficacy and Safety Outcomes of Edoxaban in 8040 Women Versus 13 065 Men With Atrial Fibrillation in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 Trial.

BACKGROUND: Female sex is an independent risk factor for stroke and systemic embolic events in patients with atrial fibrillation. This study aimed to examine the efficacy and safety profile of edoxaban in women versus men. METHODS: The ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial (Effective Anticoagulation with Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 48) randomly assigned 21 105 patients (8040 women) with atrial fibrillation and CHADS2 score ≥2 either to a higher-dose edoxaban regimen, a lower-dose edoxaban regimen, or warfarin. The primary end points of the trial were the composite of stroke or systemic embolic events (efficacy), and International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis-defined major bleeding (safety). RESULTS: In comparison with men, women were older, had lower body weight, were more likely to have hypertension and renal dysfunction, but less likely to smoke, drink alcohol, or have diabetes or coronary artery disease. Pretreatment endogenous factor Xa activity was significantly higher in women than in men (92.5% versus 86.1%, P<0.001). Treatment with edoxaban in women resulted in greater peak edoxaban concentration and inhibition of endogenous factor Xa in comparison with men, resulting in similar endogenous factor Xa activity between the sexes 2 to 4 hours after dose. Treatment with higher-dose edoxaban regimen (versus warfarin) resulted in similar reduction in the risk of stroke/systemic embolic events (women: hazard ratio [HR], 0.87 [0.69-1.11], men: HR, 0.87 [0.71-1.06]; P-interaction=0.97) and major bleeding (women: HR, 0.74 [0.59-0.92], men: HR, 0.84 [0.72-0.99]; P-interaction=0.34) in women and men. However, women assigned to higher-dose edoxaban regimen experienced greater reductions in hemorrhagic stroke (HR, 0.30 [95% CI, 0.15-0.59] versus HR, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.46-1.06]), intracranial bleeding (HR, 0.20 [95% CI, 0.10-0.39] versus HR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.44-0.89]), and life-threatening or fatal bleeding (HR, 0.25 [95% CI, 0.15-0.42] versus HR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.54-0.96]) than men (each P-interaction<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Despite many differences in baseline characteristics between women and men and higher baseline endogenous factor Xa levels in women, the intensity of anticoagulation achieved with edoxaban between the sexes was similar. Treatment with higher-dose edoxaban regimen resulted in an even greater reduction in hemorrhagic stroke and several serious bleeding outcomes in women than in men, whereas the efficacy profile was similar between sexes.

Clinical Application of a Novel Genetic Risk Score for Ischemic Stroke in Patients With Cardiometabolic Disease.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies have identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms that are associated with an increased risk of stroke. We sought to determine whether a genetic risk score (GRS) could identify subjects at higher risk for ischemic stroke after accounting for traditional clinical risk factors in 5 trials across the spectrum of cardiometabolic disease. METHODS: Subjects who had consented for genetic testing and who were of European ancestry from the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 (Effective Anticoagulation with Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation), SOLID-TIMI 52 (Stabilization of Plaques Using Darapladib), SAVOR-TIMI 53 (Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus), PEGASUS-TIMI 54 (Prevention of Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Prior Heart Attack Using Ticagrelor Compared to Placebo on a Background of Aspirin), and FOURIER (Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Research With PCSK9 Inhibition in Patients With Elevated Risk) trials were included in this analysis. A set of 32 single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with ischemic stroke was used to calculate a GRS in each patient and identify tertiles of genetic risk. A Cox model was used to calculate hazard ratios for ischemic stroke across genetic risk groups, adjusted for clinical risk factors. RESULTS: In 51 288 subjects across the 5 trials, a total of 960 subjects had an ischemic stroke over a median follow-up period of 2.5 years. After adjusting for clinical risk factors, a higher GRS was strongly and independently associated with increased risk for ischemic stroke (P trend=0.009). In comparison with individuals in the lowest third of the GRS, individuals in the middle and top tertiles of the GRS had adjusted hazard ratios of 1.15 (95% CI, 0.98-1.36) and 1.24 (95% CI 1.05-1.45) for ischemic stroke, respectively. Stratification into subgroups revealed that the performance of the GRS appeared stronger in the primary prevention cohort with an adjusted hazard ratio for the top versus lowest tertile of 1.27 (95% CI, 1.04-1.53), in comparison with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.06 (95% CI, 0.81-1.41) in subjects with previous stroke. In an exploratory analysis of patients with atrial fibrillation and CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2, high genetic risk conferred a 4-fold higher risk of stroke and an absolute risk equivalent to those with CHA2DS2-VASc score of 3. CONCLUSIONS: Across a broad spectrum of subjects with cardiometabolic disease, a 32-single-nucleotide polymorphism GRS was a strong, independent predictor of ischemic stroke. In patients with atrial fibrillation but lower CHA2DS2-VASc scores, the GRS identified patients with risk comparable to those with higher CHA2DS2-VASc scores.

Edoxaban versus Warfarin in high-risk patients with atrial fibrillation: A comprehensive analysis of high-risk subgroups.

BACKGROUND: To compare the efficacy and safety of edoxaban vs warfarin in high-risk subgroups. METHODS: ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 was a multicenter randomized, double-blind, controlled trial in 21,105 patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) within 12 months and CHADS2 score >2 randomized to higher-dose edoxaban regimen (HDER) 60 mg/reduced 30 mg, lower-dose edoxaban regimen (LDER) 30 mg/reduced 15 mg, or warfarin, and followed for 2.8 years (median). The primary outcome for this analysis was the net clinical outcome (NCO), a composite of stroke/systemic embolism events, major bleeding, or death. Multivariable risk-stratification analysis was used to categorize patients by the number of high-risk features. RESULTS: The annualized NCO rates in the warfarin arm were highest in patients with malignancy (19.2%), increased fall risk (14.0%), and very-low body weight (13.5%). The NCO rates increased with the numbers of high-risk factors in the warfarin arm: 4.5%, 7.2%, 9.9% and 14.6% in patients with 0 to 1, 2, 3, and >4 risk factors, respectively (Ptrend <0.001). Versus warfarin, HDER was associated with significant reductions of NCO in most of the subgroups: elderly, patients with moderate renal dysfunction, prior stroke/TIA, of Asian race, very-low body weight, concomitant single antiplatelet therapy, and VKA-naïve. With more high-risk features (0->4+), the absolute risk reductions favoring edoxaban over warfarin increased: 0.3%->2.0% for HDER; 0.4%->3.4% for LDER vs warfarin (P = .065 and P < .001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: While underuse of anticoagulation in high-risk patients with AF remains common, substitution of effective and safer alternatives to warfarin, such as edoxaban, represents an opportunity to improve clinical outcomes.

Serial assessment of biomarkers and the risk of stroke or systemic embolism and bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial.

AIMS: We investigated whether patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) demonstrate detectable changes in biomarkers including high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT), N-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) over 12 months and whether such changes from baseline to 12 months are associated with the subsequent risk of stroke or systemic embolic events (S/SEE) and bleeding. METHODS AND RESULTS: ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 was a randomized trial of the oral factor Xa inhibitor edoxaban in patients with AF and a CHADS2 score of ≥2. We performed a nested prospective biomarker study in 6308 patients, analysing hsTnT, NT-proBNP, and GDF-15 at baseline and 12 months. hsTnT was dynamic in 46.9% (≥2 ng/L change), NT-proBNP in 51.9% (≥200 pg/mL change), GDF-15 in 45.6% (≥300 pg/mL change) during 12 months. In a Cox regression model, upward changes in log2-transformed hsTnT and NT-proBNP were associated with increased risk of S/SEE [adjusted hazard ratio (adj-HR) 1.74; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.36-2.23 and adj-HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.07-1.50, respectively] and log2-transformed GDF-15 with bleeding (adj-HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.02-1.92). Reassessment of ABC-stroke (age, prior stroke/transient ischaemic attack, hsTnT, and NT-proBNP) and ABC-bleeding (age, prior bleeding, haemoglobin, hsTnT, and GDF-15) risk scores at 12 months accurately reclassified a significant proportion of patients compared with their baseline risk [net reclassification improvement (NRI) 0.50; 95% CI 0.36-0.65; NRI 0.42; 95% CI 0.33-0.51, respectively]. CONCLUSION: Serial assessment of hsTnT, NT-proBNP, and GDF-15 revealed that a substantial proportion of patients with AF had dynamic values. Greater increases in these biomarkers measured over 1 year are associated with important clinical outcomes in anticoagulated patients with AF.

Edoxaban versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation in relation to the risk of stroke: A secondary analysis of the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 study.

INTRODUCTION: The efficacy and safety of the oral factor Xa inhibitor edoxaban compared to warfarin stratified by CHA2DS2VASc scores have not been described. METHODS: The ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial randomized patients with atrial fibrillation to once-daily edoxaban or warfarin. We classified patients based on CHA2DS2VASc score and compared pharmacokinetics (edoxaban concentration), pharmacodynamics (anti-factor Xa [FXa] with edoxaban, time-in-therapeutic range for warfarin), efficacy (stroke or systemic embolism [SSE]), safety (major bleeding [MB], intracranial hemorrhage), and cardiovascular mortality, for the approved edoxaban regimen vs warfarin. RESULTS: The distribution CHA2DS2VASc score were:≤3, N = 4159 (29.6%); 4, N = 4066 (28.9%); 5, N = 3165 (22.5%); and ≥6, N = 2681 (19.1%). Increasing rates of SSE (1.05 to 2.99%/year) and MB (2.27 to 4.66%/year) were observed in the warfarin arm as the CHA2DS2VASc score increased. The hazard ratios per unit increase of CHA2DS2VASc score were 1.29 (1.21-1.38) and 1.26 (1.17-1.36) for SSE, and 1.20 (1.13-1.27) and 1.19 (1.12-1.27) for MB, with warfarin and edoxaban, respectively. Time-in-therapeutic range in warfarin-treated patients was similar and high (median 68%-69%) across CHA2DS2VASc scores, whereas edoxaban trough concentration, exogenous anti-FXa activity and %inhibition of endogenous FXa were higher at increasing CHA2DS2VASc scores. Edoxaban reduced SSE, MB, intracranial hemorrhage, and cardiovascular mortality vs warfarin to a similar degree across the range of CHA2DS2VASc scores (P-int = 0.90, 0.96, 0.21, and 0.37, respectively). Because of higher event rates the number of events prevented with edoxaban tended to be greater in patients with higher CHA2DS2VASc scores. CONCLUSION: The benefit and safety of edoxaban versus warfarin is maintained across CHA2DS2VASc scores. While the relative risk reductions remain similar, edoxaban provides incrementally larger absolute reductions in outcomes over warfarin in patients with higher CHA2DS2VASc scores.

A Biomarker-Centric Approach to Drug Discovery and Development: Lessons Learned from the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic.

Faced with the health and economic consequences of the global spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the biomedical community came together to identify, diagnose, prevent, and treat the novel disease at breathtaking speeds. The field advanced from a publicly available viral genome to a commercialized globally scalable diagnostic biomarker test in less than 2 months, and first-in-human dosing with vaccines and repurposed antivirals followed shortly thereafter. This unprecedented efficiency was driven by three key factors: 1) international multistakeholder collaborations, 2) widespread data sharing, and 3) flexible regulatory standards tailored to meet the urgency of the situation. Learning from the remarkable success achieved during this public health crisis, we are proposing a biomarker-centric approach throughout the drug development pipeline. Although all therapeutic areas would benefit from end-to-end biomarker science, efforts should be prioritized to areas with the greatest unmet medical needs, including neurodegenerative diseases, chronic lower respiratory diseases, metabolic disorders, and malignant neoplasms. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Faced with the unprecedented threat of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic, the biomedical community collaborated to develop a globally scalable diagnostic biomarker (viral DNA) that catalyzed therapeutic development at breathtaking speeds. Learning from this remarkable efficiency, we propose a multistakeholder biomarker-centric approach to drug development across therapeutic areas with unmet medical needs.

Digital health device measured sleep duration and ideal cardiovascular health: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Studies relying on self-reported sleep data suggest that there is an association between short and long sleep duration and less than ideal cardiovascular health. Evidence regarding the feasibility of using digital health devices to measure sleep duration and assess its relationship to ideal cardiovascular health are lacking. The objective of the present study was to utilize digital health devices to record sleep duration and examine the relationship between sleep duration and ideal cardiovascular health. METHODS: A total of 307 participants transmitted sleep duration data from digital health devices and answered the Life's Simple 7 survey instrument to assess ideal cardiovascular health. Sleep duration was defined as adequate (7 to < 9 h per night) or non-adequate (< 7 h and ≥ 9 h). RESULTS: We identified three sleep-cardiovascular health phenogroups: resilient (non-adequate sleep and ideal cardiovascular health), uncoupled (adequate sleep and non-ideal cardiovascular health) or concordant (sleep and cardiovascular health metrics were aligned). Participants in the resilient phenogroup (n = 83) had better cardiovascular health factor profiles (blood pressure, blood glucose and cholesterol levels) and behaviors (healthy weight, diet, exercise, smoking) than participants in the concordant (n = 171) and uncoupled (n = 53) phenogroups. This was associated with higher Life's Simple 7 Health Scores in the resilient phenogroup compared to the concordant and uncoupled phenogroups (7.8 ± 0.8 vs. 7.0 ± 1.4 vs. 5.6 ± 0.7, P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: This study identified three distinct sleep-ideal cardiovascular health phenogroups and highlights the advantage of incorporating sleep assessments into studies of cardiovascular health. Future studies should focus on the relationship between sleep-cardiovascular phenogroups and clinical outcomes. Clinical Trial Registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02958098. Date of registration: November 11, 2016.

Performance of the ABC Scores for Assessing the Risk of Stroke or Systemic Embolism and Bleeding in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation in ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48.

BACKGROUND: The ABC (age, biomarker, clinical history)-stroke and ABC-bleeding risk scores incorporate clinical variables and cardiovascular biomarkers to estimate risk of stroke or systemic embolic events and bleeding, respectively, in patients with atrial fibrillation. These scores have been proposed for routine clinical use, but their performance in external cohorts remains uncertain. METHODS: ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 (Effective Anticoagulation With Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 48) was a multinational randomized trial of the oral factor Xa inhibitor edoxaban in patients with atrial fibrillation and a CHADS2 score ≥2. We performed a nested prospective biomarker study in 8705 patients, analyzing baseline high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT), NT-proBNP (N-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide), and growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), as well as in serial samples after 12 months. The ABC-stroke (age, prior stroke/transient ischemic attack, hsTnT, NT-proBNP) and ABC-bleeding (age, prior bleeding, hemoglobin, hsTnT, and GDF-15) scores were tested. Hazard ratios were adjusted for estimated glomerular filtration rate and the components of the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores, respectively. Discrimination and reclassification were compared with these established scores. RESULTS: Median baseline hsTnT, NT-proBNP, and GDF-15 levels were 13.7 ng/L (25th-75th percentiles, 9.6-20.4 ng/L), 811 pg/mL (386-1436 pg/mL), and 1661 pg/mL (1179-2427 pg/mL), respectively. Elevated hsTnT, NT-proBNP, and GDF-15 were independently associated with higher rates of stroke or systemic embolic events, and elevated hsTnT and GDF-15 were independently associated with higher rates of major bleeding ( P<0.001 for each). The ABC-stroke and ABC-bleeding scores were well calibrated and yielded higher c indexes than the CHA2DS2-VASc score for stroke or systemic embolic events (0.67 [95% CI, 0.65-0.70] versus 0.59 [95% CI, 0.57-0.62]; P<0.001) and HAS-BLED score for major bleeding (0.69 [95% CI, 0.66-0.71] versus 0.62 [95% CI, 0.60-0.64]; P<0.001), respectively. The ABC-stroke and ABC-bleeding scores stratified patients within CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED risk categories ( P<0.001 for both). Patients with ABC-bleeding scores predicting a high 1-year risk of bleeding (>2%) derived greater benefit from treatment with edoxaban compared with warfarin. CONCLUSIONS: The ABC-stroke and ABC-bleeding scores evaluated in this anticoagulated clinical trial cohort were well calibrated and outperformed the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores, respectively. These scores may help identify patients most likely to derive a benefit from treatment with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00781391.

Comparison of Events Across Bleeding Scales in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 Trial.

BACKGROUND: Numerous scales exist for the classification of major bleeding events. Limited data compare the most commonly used bleeding scales within a single at-risk cohort of patients with atrial fibrillation. Here, we analyze bleeding outcomes according to the ISTH (International Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis), TIMI (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction), GUSTO (Global Usage of Strategies to Open Occluded Arteries), and BARC (Bleeding Academic Research Consortium) bleeding scales in the ENGAGE AF (Effective Anticoagulation With Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation)-TIMI 48 trial (NCT00781391) of edoxaban versus warfarin. METHODS: A total of 21 105 patients with atrial fibrillation at risk for stroke (CHADS2 score ≥2) were enrolled in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial comparing warfarin with a higher- (60/30 mg daily) or lower- (30/15 mg daily) dose edoxaban regimen. Median follow-up was 2.8 years. Bleeding events occurring among on-treatment patients were examined. Annualized event rates were calculated by the ISTH, TIMI, GUSTO, and BARC scales and compared across treatment arms. Cox proportional hazards for a first bleeding event of each type were calculated for higher-dose edoxaban regimen vs warfarin and lower-dose edoxaban regimen versus warfarin. RESULTS: A total of 10 311 bleeding events were reported. In a comparison of the most severe events in each scale, ISTH major bleeding was the most common (n=1289), followed by TIMI major (n=548), GUSTO severe/life-threatening (n=347), and BARC 3c+5 (n=276) bleeding. Lower bleeding risk with edoxaban compared with warfarin was seen regardless of bleeding scale (higher-dose edoxaban regimen range: hazard ratio [HR], 0.47 [95% CI, 0.35-0.62] for BARC 3c+5 versus HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.71-0.91] for ISTH major; lower-dose edoxaban regimen range: HR, 0.32 [95% CI, 0.23-0.45] for BARC 3c+5 versus HR, 0.47 [95% CI, 0.41-0.55] for ISTH major). Furthermore, a gradient of more pronounced risk reduction with edoxaban was observed with greater severity of first bleeding event (higher-dose edoxaban regimen: HR, 0.47 [95% CI, 0.35-0.62] for BARC 3c+5 bleeds versus HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.81-0.91] for any BARC bleed; lower-dose edoxaban regimen: HR, 0.32 [95% CI, 0.23-0.45] for BARC 3c+5 bleeds versus HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.63-0.72] for any BARC bleed). The direction of this trend was consistent for both gastrointestinal bleeding and nongastrointestinal bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with atrial fibrillation at risk for stroke, there was a >4-fold difference in the frequency of the most severe bleeding events across commonly used bleeding scales. Furthermore, the relative safety of edoxaban compared with warfarin tended to increase with greater severity of bleeding. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00781391.

Clinical outcomes, edoxaban concentration, and anti-factor Xa activity of Asian patients with atrial fibrillation compared with non-Asians in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial.

AIMS: Prior studies suggested that the risks of ischaemic stroke and bleeding in patients of Asian race with atrial fibrillation (AF) may be higher than that of non-Asians. In the analysis of ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial, we compared clinical outcomes, edoxaban concentration, and anti-factor Xa (anti-FXa) activity, between Asian and non-Asian races. METHODS AND RESULTS: There were 2909 patients of Asian race and 18 195 non-Asian race in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial. The risks of thromboembolism and bleeding events were compared for Asians and non-Asians treated with warfarin. The trough levels of edoxaban concentration and anti-FXa activity were also compared and correlated with the efficacy and safety of edoxaban vs. warfarin. Compared to non-Asian patients, the Asian population was on average 2 years younger and 20 kg lighter. In the warfarin group, the adjusted risk of ischaemic stroke did not differ significantly for patients of Asian and non-Asian race [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.12, P = 0.56). Asians treated with warfarin had a higher-adjusted risk of intracranial haemorrhage (ICH: aHR 1.71, P = 0.03) compared with non-Asians. The trough edoxaban concentration and anti-FXa activity were 20-25% lower for Asians compared with non-Asians. Compared to warfarin, higher dose edoxaban significantly reduced ICH while preserving the efficacy of stroke prevention in both Asians and non-Asians. Two of three net clinical outcomes appeared to be more favourably reduced with edoxaban in Asians compared with non-Asians (Pint = 0.063 for primary, 0.037 for secondary, and 0.032 for third net clinical outcomes, respectively). CONCLUSION: Compared to warfarin, higher dose edoxaban preserved the efficacy for stroke prevention and was associated with a favourable safety profile for Asians, which may be due to the lower trough edoxaban concentration and anti-FXa activity achieved in patients of Asian race.

Relationship between body mass index and outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with edoxaban or warfarin in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial.

AIMS: To investigate the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS AND RESULTS: In the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial, patients with AF were randomized to warfarin (international normalized ratio 2.0-3.0) or edoxaban. The cohort (N = 21 028) included patients across BMI categories (kg/m2): underweight (<18.5) in 0.8%, normal (18.5 to <25) in 21.4%, overweight (25 to <30) in 37.6%, moderately obese (30 to <35) in 24.8%, severely obese (35 to <40) in 10.0%, and very severely obese (≥40) in 5.5%. In an adjusted analysis, higher BMI (continuous, per 5 kg/m2 increase) was significantly and independently associated with lower risks of stroke/systemic embolic event (SEE) [hazard ratio (HR) 0.88, P = 0.0001], ischaemic stroke/SEE (HR 0.87, P < 0.0001), and death (HR 0.91, P < 0.0001), but with increased risks of major (HR 1.06, P = 0.025) and major or clinically relevant non-major bleeding (HR 1.05, P = 0.0007). There was a significant interaction between sex and increasing BMI category, with lower risk of ischaemic stroke/SEE in males and increased risk of bleeding in women. Trough edoxaban concentration and anti-Factor Xa activity were similar across BMI groups >18.5 kg/m2, while time in therapeutic range for warfarin improved significantly as BMI increased (P < 0.0001). The effects of edoxaban vs. warfarin on stroke/SEE, major bleeding, and net clinical outcome were similar across BMI groups. CONCLUSION: An increased BMI was independently associated with a lower risk of stroke/SEE, better survival, but increased risk of bleeding. The efficacy and safety profiles of edoxaban were similar across BMI categories ranging from 18.5 to >40.

Linking Endogenous Factor Xa Activity, a Biologically Relevant Pharmacodynamic Marker, to Edoxaban Plasma Concentrations and Clinical Outcomes in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 Trial.

BACKGROUND: We previously reported exogenous antifactor Xa (FXa) activity as a pharmacokinetic surrogate marker for edoxaban plasma concentrations. Inhibition of endogenous FXa activity is a more biologically relevant pharmacodynamic measure of edoxaban activity. Here we describe the value of endogenous FXa activity as a pharmacodynamic marker linking edoxaban concentrations and clinical outcomes in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial (Effective Anticoagulation With Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Study 48). METHODS: In ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48, edoxaban was administered in higher dose (60/30 mg QD) and lower dose (30/15 mg QD) regimens. Both regimens incorporated a 50% dose reduction in patients with characteristics known to increase edoxaban concentration. Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling was performed in a subgroup of 3029 patients who had samples collected for endogenous FXa activity (measured using an assay after endogenous FX was activated with Russell viper venom). RESULTS: Endogenous FXa activity decreased with increasing edoxaban concentrations of ≤440 ng/mL, indicating that inhibition of endogenous FXa activity is saturated above this concentration threshold. Baseline endogenous FXa activity averaged 92.1±20.9% (relative to normal control samples) and was lower with older age, with lower body weight, and in male patients. Model-predicted 24-hour average percentages of inhibition of endogenous FXa activity were 35.8±5.18, 29.1±3.92, 21.9±3.80, and 16.4±2.70 for the higher dose edoxaban regimen 60 mg, dose-reduced higher dose edoxaban regimen 30 mg, lower dose edoxaban regimen 30 mg, and dose-reduced lower dose edoxaban regimen 15 mg groups, respectively. A greater average percentage of inhibition of endogenous FXa activity was associated with a lower incidence of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism and a higher risk of major bleeding ( P<0.001). In a typical subject, the predicted risks for the 10th and 90th percentiles of inhibition of endogenous FXa activity were 1.04% and 0.57% for incidence of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism and 1.35% and 2.33% for major bleeding, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The extent of inhibition of endogenous FXa activity is influenced by edoxaban dosing and clinical characteristics, and it is associated with both antithrombotic benefit and risk of bleeding. This approach of linking endogenous FXa activity to clinical outcomes may be used to guide dose selection in future clinical trials, monitor patients in certain clinical scenarios, or refine the doses of oral FXa inhibitors in patients who require precise anticoagulation therapy. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00781391.

Edoxaban and implantable cardiac device interventions: insights from the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial.

AIMS: Pacemaker, implantable cardioverter-defibrillator, and cardiac resynchronization therapy device implantations and generator changes are frequently performed in patients receiving direct oral anticoagulants. In an exploratory analysis, we investigated the outcome of patients undergoing such device procedures in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: During the trial, 1217 device procedures were performed in 1145 patients, with intervention dates available for 1203 procedures. Two hundred and twenty-five procedures (in 212 patients) were performed >30 days after study drug was stopped and are not included in the event analysis. For most interventions (n = 728, 74%), study drug was interrupted >3 days (median for the entire cohort: 5 days, interquartile range 0-11 days); 250 interventions were performed with ≤3 days study drug interruption. During the first 30 days after the procedure, six strokes/systemic embolic events (SEEs) (three each in the lower-dose edoxaban and warfarin arm) and one major bleeding event (in the lower-dose edoxaban arm) occurred; no stroke/SEEs or major bleeds occurred around the 295 device procedures in the higher-dose edoxaban arm. Two ischaemic and one major bleeding event occurred after the 288 device procedures performed with ≤3 days periprocedural interruption of study drug. CONCLUSION: In this first experience of patients undergoing device surgery with edoxaban, a low risk of ischaemic and bleeding events was observed during the first 30 days post-procedure. Our data are in line with current recommendations of no or only brief interruption of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants prior to cardiac device surgery.

Modes and timing of death in 66 252 patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes enrolled in 14 TIMI trials.

Aims: Although presenting features and early sequelae of non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS) are well described, less is known about longer-term risks and modes of death. The purpose of this study was to characterize modes of death following NSTE-ACS in clinical trial populations. Methods and results: We evaluated 66 252 patients with NSTE-ACS enrolled in 14 Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) trials, examining baseline characteristics and modes and timing of death. Of the 66 252 patients followed for a median of 372 (interquartile range 218-521) days, 3147 (4.8%) died by the time of last follow-up. Of the 2606 patients (82.8%) with known modes of death, 75.1% were related to a cardiovascular (CV) event, 3.0% were related to a bleeding event (including intracranial haemorrhage), and 21.8% were related to a non-CV/non-bleeding event. The most common modes of CV death were sudden death (SD) and recurrent myocardial infarction (MI) (36.4% and 23.4%, respectively, of CV deaths). The proportion of CV deaths related to recurrent MI was higher in the first 30 days than it was after 30 days following NSTE-ACS (30.6% vs. 18.7%), whereas the proportion of SD was lower in the first 30 days than after 30 days (21.6% vs. 46.2%). Conclusion: Sudden death represents the largest proportion of CV deaths after 30 days among patients enrolled in CV clinical trials with NSTE-ACS. Further investigations aimed at defining the epidemiology of SD and developing specific therapies and management approaches to reduce SD following NSTE-ACS may be critical to reducing late mortality.