Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean.

We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a "no mitigation" scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine-protected areas in a changing ocean.

North Atlantic winter cyclones starve seabirds.

Each winter, the North Atlantic Ocean is the stage for numerous cyclones, the most severe ones leading to seabird mass-mortality events called "winter wrecks."1-3 During these, thousands of emaciated seabird carcasses are washed ashore along European and North American coasts. Winter cyclones can therefore shape seabird population dynamics4,5 by affecting survival rates as well as the body condition of surviving individuals and thus their future reproduction. However, most often the geographic origins of impacted seabirds and the causes of their deaths remain unclear.6 We performed the first ocean-basin scale assessment of cyclone exposure in a seabird community by coupling winter tracking data for ∼1,500 individuals of five key North Atlantic seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia, and Rissa tridactyla) and cyclone locations. We then explored the energetic consequences of different cyclonic conditions using a mechanistic bioenergetics model7 and tested the hypothesis that cyclones dramatically increase seabird energy requirements. We demonstrated that cyclones of high intensity impacted birds from all studied species and breeding colonies during winter but especially those aggregating in the Labrador Sea, the Davis Strait, the surroundings of Iceland, and the Barents Sea. Our broad-scale analyses suggested that cyclonic conditions do not increase seabird energy requirements, implying that they die because of the unavailability of their prey and/or their inability to feed during cyclones. Our study provides essential information on seabird cyclone exposure in a context of marked cyclone regime changes due to global warming.8.