Pamrevlumab for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: The ZEPHYRUS-1 Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Current treatments for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis slow the rate of lung function decline, but may be associated with adverse events that affect medication adherence. In phase 2 trials, pamrevlumab (a fully human monoclonal antibody that binds to and inhibits connective tissue growth factor activity) attenuated the progression of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis without substantial adverse events. Objective: To assess the efficacy and safety of pamrevlumab for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Design, Setting, and Participants: Phase 3 randomized clinical trial including 356 patients aged 40 to 85 years with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis who were not receiving antifibrotic treatment with nintedanib or pirfenidone at enrollment. Patients were recruited from 117 sites in 9 countries between July 18, 2019, and July 29, 2022; the last follow-up encounter occurred on August 28, 2023. Interventions: Pamrevlumab (30 mg/kg administered intravenously every 3 weeks; n = 181) or placebo (n = 175) for 48 weeks. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was absolute change in forced vital capacity (FVC) from baseline to week 48. There were 5 secondary outcomes (including time to disease progression, which was defined as a decline of ≥10% in predicted FVC or death). The exploratory outcomes included patient-reported symptoms. Adverse events were reported. Results: Among 356 patients (mean age, 70.5 years; 258 [72.5%] were men; 221 [62.1%] were White), 277 (77.8%) completed the trial. There was no significant between-group difference for absolute change in FVC from baseline to week 48 (least-squares mean, -260 mL [95% CI, -350 to -170 mL] in the pamrevlumab group vs -330 mL [95% CI, -430 to -230 mL] in the placebo group; mean between-group difference, 70 mL [95% CI, -60 to 190 mL], P = .29). There were no significant between-group differences in any of the secondary outcomes or in the patient-reported outcomes. In the pamrevlumab group, there were 160 patients (88.4%) with treatment-related adverse events and 51 patients (28.2%) with serious adverse events vs 151 (86.3%) and 60 (34.3%), respectively, in the placebo group. During the study, 23 patients died in each group (12.7% in the pamrevlumab group vs 13.1% in the placebo group). Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis treated with pamrevlumab or placebo, there was no statistically significant between-group difference for the primary outcome of absolute change in FVC from baseline to week 48. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03955146.

Effects of nintedanib by inclusion criteria for progression of interstitial lung disease.

BACKGROUND: The INBUILD trial investigated nintedanib versus placebo in patients with progressive fibrosing interstitial lung diseases (ILDs). We investigated the decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) in subgroups based on the inclusion criteria for ILD progression. METHODS: Subjects had a fibrosing ILD other than idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and met the following criteria for ILD progression within the 24 months before screening despite management deemed appropriate in clinical practice: Group A, relative decline in FVC ≥10% predicted; Group B, relative decline in FVC ≥5-<10% predicted with worsened respiratory symptoms and/or increased extent of fibrosis on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT); Group C, worsened respiratory symptoms and increased extent of fibrosis on HRCT only. RESULTS: In the placebo group, the rates of FVC decline over 52 weeks in Groups A, B and C, respectively, were -241.9, -133.1 and -115.3 mL per year in the overall population (p=0.0002 for subgroup-by-time interaction) and -288.9, -156.2 and -100.1 mL per year among subjects with a usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP)-like fibrotic pattern on HRCT (p=0.0005 for subgroup-by-time interaction). Nintedanib had a greater absolute effect on reducing the rate of FVC decline in Group A than in Group B or C. However, the relative effect of nintedanib versus placebo was consistent across the subgroups (p>0.05 for heterogeneity). CONCLUSIONS: The inclusion criteria used in the INBUILD trial, based on FVC decline or worsening of symptoms and extent of fibrosis on HRCT, were effective at identifying patients with progressive fibrosing ILDs. Nintedanib reduced the rate of decline in FVC across the subgroups based on the inclusion criteria related to ILD progression.

Radiographic Graft Surveillance in Lung Transplantation: Prognostic Role of Parametric Response Mapping.

Rationale: Chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) results in significant morbidity after lung transplantation. Potential CLAD occurs when lung function declines to 80-90% of baseline. Better noninvasive tools to prognosticate at potential CLAD are needed. Objectives: To determine whether parametric response mapping (PRM), a computed tomography (CT) voxel-wise methodology applied to high-resolution CT scans, can identify patients at risk of progression to CLAD or death. Methods: Radiographic features and PRM-based CT metrics quantifying functional small airway disease (PRMfSAD) and parenchymal disease (PRMPD) were studied at potential CLAD (n = 61). High PRMfSAD and high PRMPD were defined as ⩾30%. Restricted mean modeling was performed to compare CLAD-free survival among groups. Measurements and Main Results: PRM metrics identified the following three unique signatures: high PRMfSAD (11.5%), high PRMPD (41%), and neither (PRMNormal; 47.5%). Patients with high PRMfSAD or PRMPD had shorter CLAD-free median survival times (0.46 yr and 0.50 yr) compared with patients with predominantly PRMNormal (2.03 yr; P = 0.004 and P = 0.007 compared with PRMfSAD and PRMPD groups, respectively). In multivariate modeling adjusting for single- versus double-lung transplant, age at transplant, body mass index at potential CLAD, and time from transplant to CT scan, PRMfSAD ⩾30% or PRMPD ⩾30% continue to be statistically significant predictors of shorter CLAD-free survival. Air trapping by radiologist interpretation was common (66%), was similar across PRM groups, and was not predictive of CLAD-free survival. Ground-glass opacities by radiologist read occurred in 16% of cases and were associated with decreased CLAD-free survival (P < 0.001). Conclusions: PRM analysis offers valuable prognostic information at potential CLAD, identifying patients most at risk of developing CLAD or death.

Effect of Antimicrobial Therapy on Respiratory Hospitalization or Death in Adults With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: The CleanUP-IPF Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Alteration in lung microbes is associated with disease progression in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Objective: To assess the effect of antimicrobial therapy on clinical outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: Pragmatic, randomized, unblinded clinical trial conducted across 35 US sites. A total of 513 patients older than 40 years were randomized from August 2017 to June 2019 (final follow-up was January 2020). Interventions: Patients were randomized in a 1:1 allocation ratio to receive antimicrobials (n = 254) or usual care alone (n = 259). Antimicrobials included co-trimoxazole (trimethoprim 160 mg/sulfamethoxazole 800 mg twice daily plus folic acid 5 mg daily, n = 128) or doxycycline (100 mg once daily if body weight <50 kg or 100 mg twice daily if ≥50 kg, n = 126). No placebo was administered in the usual care alone group. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was time to first nonelective respiratory hospitalization or all-cause mortality. Results: Among the 513 patients who were randomized (mean age, 71 years; 23.6% women), all (100%) were included in the analysis. The study was terminated for futility on December 18, 2019. After a mean follow-up time of 13.1 months (median, 12.7 months), a total of 108 primary end point events occurred: 52 events (20.4 events per 100 patient-years [95% CI, 14.8-25.9]) in the usual care plus antimicrobial therapy group and 56 events (18.4 events per 100 patient-years [95% CI, 13.2-23.6]) in the usual care group, with no significant difference between groups (adjusted HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.71-1.53; P = .83]. There was no statistically significant interaction between the effect of the prespecified antimicrobial agent (co-trimoxazole vs doxycycline) on the primary end point (adjusted HR, 1.15 [95% CI 0.68-1.95] in the co-trimoxazole group vs 0.82 [95% CI, 0.46-1.47] in the doxycycline group; P = .66). Serious adverse events occurring at 5% or greater among those treated with usual care plus antimicrobials vs usual care alone included respiratory events (16.5% vs 10.0%) and infections (2.8% vs 6.6%); adverse events of special interest included diarrhea (10.2% vs 3.1%) and rash (6.7% vs 0%). Conclusions and Relevance: Among adults with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, the addition of co-trimoxazole or doxycycline to usual care, compared with usual care alone, did not significantly improve time to nonelective respiratory hospitalization or death. These findings do not support treatment with these antibiotics for the underlying disease. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02759120.

Development and validation of a radiological diagnosis model for hypersensitivity pneumonitis.

High-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) may be useful for diagnosing hypersensitivity pneumonitis. Here, we develop and validate a radiological diagnosis model and model-based points score.Patients with interstitial lung disease seen at the University of Michigan Health System (derivation cohort) or enrolling in the Lung Tissue Research Consortium (validation cohort) were included. A thin-section, inspiratory HRCT scan was required. Thoracic radiologists documented radiological features.The derivation cohort comprised 356 subjects (33.9% hypersensitivity pneumonitis) and the validation cohort comprised 424 subjects (15.5% hypersensitivity pneumonitis). An age-, sex- and smoking status-adjusted logistic regression model identified extent of mosaic attenuation or air trapping greater than that of reticulation ("MA-AT>Reticulation"; OR 6.20, 95% CI 3.53-10.90; p<0.0001) and diffuse axial disease distribution (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.31-4.16; p=0.004) as hypersensitivity pneumonitis predictors (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.814). A model-based score >2 (1 point for axial distribution, 2 points for "MA-AT>Reticulation") has specificity 90% and positive predictive value (PPV) 74% in the derivation cohort and specificity 96% and PPV 44% in the validation cohort. Similar model performance is seen with population restriction to those reporting no exposure (score >2: specificity 91%).When radiological mosaic attenuation or air trapping are more extensive than reticulation and disease has diffuse axial distribution, hypersensitivity pneumonitis specificity is high and false diagnosis risk low (<10%), but PPV is diminished in a low-prevalence setting.

Parametric Response Mapping as an Imaging Biomarker in Lung Transplant Recipients.

RATIONALE: The predominant cause of chronic lung allograft failure is small airway obstruction arising from bronchiolitis obliterans. However, clinical methodologies for evaluating presence and degree of small airway disease are lacking. OBJECTIVES: To determine if parametric response mapping (PRM), a novel computed tomography voxel-wise methodology, can offer insight into chronic allograft failure phenotypes and provide prognostic information following spirometric decline. METHODS: PRM-based computed tomography metrics quantifying functional small airways disease (PRMfSAD) and parenchymal disease (PRMPD) were compared between bilateral lung transplant recipients with irreversible spirometric decline and control subjects matched by time post-transplant (n = 22). PRMfSAD at spirometric decline was evaluated as a prognostic marker for mortality in a cohort study via multivariable restricted mean models (n = 52). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Patients presenting with an isolated decline in FEV1 (FEV1 First) had significantly higher PRMfSAD than control subjects (28% vs. 15%; P = 0.005), whereas patients with concurrent decline in FEV1 and FVC had significantly higher PRMPD than control subjects (39% vs. 20%; P = 0.02). Over 8.3 years of follow-up, FEV1 First patients with PRMfSAD greater than or equal to 30% at spirometric decline lived on average 2.6 years less than those with PRMfSAD less than 30% (P = 0.004). In this group, PRMfSAD greater than or equal to 30% was the strongest predictor of survival in a multivariable model including bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome grade and baseline FEV1% predicted (P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: PRM is a novel imaging tool for lung transplant recipients presenting with spirometric decline. Quantifying underlying small airway obstruction via PRMfSAD helps further stratify the risk of death in patients with diverse spirometric decline patterns.

Mechanistic Target of Rapamycin Complex 1 (mTORC1) and mTORC2 as Key Signaling Intermediates in Mesenchymal Cell Activation.

Fibrotic diseases display mesenchymal cell (MC) activation with pathologic deposition of matrix proteins such as collagen. Here we investigate the role of mTOR complex 1 (mTORC1) and mTORC2 in regulating MC collagen expression, a hallmark of fibrotic disease. Relative to normal MCs (non-Fib MCs), MCs derived from fibrotic human lung allografts (Fib-MCs) demonstrated increased phosphoinositide-3kinase (PI3K) dependent activation of both mTORC1 and mTORC2, as measured by increased phosphorylation of S6K1 and 4E-BP1 (mTORC1 substrates) and AKT (an mTORC2 substrate). Dual ATP-competitive TORC1/2 inhibitor AZD8055, in contrast to allosteric mTORC1-specific inhibitor rapamycin, strongly inhibited 4E-BP1 phosphorylation and collagen I expression in Fib-MCs. In non-Fib MCs, increased mTORC1 signaling was shown to augment collagen I expression. mTORC1/4E-BP1 pathway was identified as an important driver of collagen I expression in Fib-MCs in experiments utilizing raptor gene silencing and overexpression of dominant-inhibitory 4E-BP1. Furthermore, siRNA-mediated knockdown of rictor, an mTORC2 partner protein, reduced mTORC1 substrate phosphorylation and collagen expression in Fib-, but not non-Fib MCs, revealing a dependence of mTORC1 signaling on mTORC2 function in activated MCs. Together these studies suggest a novel paradigm where fibrotic activation in MCs increases PI3K dependent mTORC1 and mTORC2 signaling and leads to increased collagen I expression via the mTORC1-dependent 4E-BP1/eIF4E pathway. These data provide rationale for targeting specific components of mTORC pathways in fibrotic states and underscore the need to further delineate mTORC2 signaling in activated cell states.

Idiopathic non-specific interstitial pneumonia.

Non-specific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP) is an interstitial lung disease that may be idiopathic or secondary to connective tissue disease, toxins or numerous other causes. Idiopathic NSIP is a rare diagnosis and requires exclusion of these other possible causes. Patients typically present in mid-adulthood with dyspnoea, cough and often constitutional symptoms including fever and fatigue. The disease has a female predominance, and more than 50% of patients have never smoked. Physical exam features mild hypoxaemia and inspiratory rales. Pulmonary function tests demonstrate restriction and a low diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide. High-resolution computed tomography abnormalities include predominantly lower lobe subpleural reticular changes, traction bronchiectasis and ground-glass opacities; honeycombing is rarely seen. An evaluation of the underlying pathology is necessary for a firm diagnosis. Histologically, alveolar and interstitial mononuclear cell inflammation and fibrosis are seen in a temporally uniform pattern with preserved underlying alveolar architecture. NSIP must be differentiated from other parenchymal lung diseases including idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and hypersensitivity pneumonitis. A thorough exposure history and assessment for underlying connective tissue diseases are highly important, as positive findings in these categories would likely denote a case of secondary NSIP. A multi-disciplinary discussion that includes pulmonologist(s), radiologist(s) and pathologist(s) assists in reaching a consensus diagnosis and improves diagnostic accuracy. Treatment of idiopathic NSIP, although not well proven, is generally instituted in the form of immunosuppression. Prognosis is favourable compared with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, although the diagnosis still carries an attributable mortality. Herein we will summarize the clinical characteristics and management of idiopathic NSIP.

Longitudinal Forced Vital Capacity Monitoring as a Prognostic Adjunct after Lung Transplantation.

RATIONALE: After lung transplantation, spirometric values are routinely followed to assess graft function. FEV1 is used to characterize chronic allograft dysfunction, whereas the course of FVC change has been less acknowledged and rarely used. OBJECTIVES: To better understand the temporal relationship and prognostic ability of FEV1 and FVC decline after lung transplantation. METHODS: Serial FEV1 and FVC values were studied among 205 bilateral lung transplant recipients. Different decline patterns were characterized and evaluated for prognostic value via restricted mean modeling of mortality and times to other pertinent events. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Baseline FEV1 was achieved earlier than baseline FVC (median, 296 vs. 378 d; P < 0.0001). Decline in FEV1 or FVC from their respective post-transplant baselines occurred in 85 patients (41%). Fifty-nine of 85 (69%) had an isolated FEV1 decline, with 80% later meeting the FVC decline criterion. This subsequent FVC decline was associated with worsening FEV1 and lower median survival. Twenty-five of 85 patients (29%) demonstrated concurrent FEV1 and FVC decline. Patients with concurrent decline had higher 1- and 5-year mortality rates (1-yr, 53% vs. 18%, P < 0.0001; 5-yr, 61% vs. 48%, P = 0.001). These patients were more likely to have rapid-onset of spirometry decline (P = 0.05) and lower FEV1% predicted (P = 0.04) at presentation. CONCLUSIONS: FVC decline from its post-transplant baseline provides valuable prognostic information. Concurrent FEV1 and FVC decline identifies patients with fulminant, rapid deterioration and is the strongest clinical predictor of poor survival. Subsequent FVC decline in patients with an initial isolated FEV1 decline identifies disease progression and portends poor prognosis.

Results from randomized trial of pirfenidone in patients with chronic rejection (STOP-CLAD study).

BACKGROUND: Chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) is the leading long-term cause of poor outcomes after transplant and manifests by fibrotic remodeling of small airways and/or pleuroparenchymal fibroelastosis. This study evaluated the effect of pirfenidone on quantitative radiographic and pulmonary function assessment in patients with CLAD. METHODS: We performed a single-center, 6-month, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of pirfenidone in patients with CLAD. Randomization was stratified by CLAD phenotype. The primary outcome for this study was change in radiographic assessment of small airways disease, quantified as percentage of lung volume using parametric response mapping analysis of computed tomography scans (PRMfSAD); secondary outcomes included change in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), change in forced vital capacity (FVC), and change in radiographic quantification of parenchymal disease (PRMPD). Linear mixed models were used to evaluate the treatment effect on outcome measures. RESULTS: The goal enrollment of 60 patients was not met due to the coronavirus disease of 2019 pandemic, with 23 patients included in the analysis. There was no significant difference over the study period between the pirfenidone vs placebo groups with regards to the observed change in PRMfSAD (+4.2% vs -0.4%; p = 0.22), FEV1 (-3.5% vs -3.6%; p = 0.97), FVC (-1.9% vs -4.6%; p = 0.41), or PRMPD (-0.6% vs -2.5%; p = 0.30). The study treatment tolerance and adverse events were generally similar between the pirfenidone and placebo groups. CONCLUSIONS: Pirfenidone had no apparent impact on radiographic evidence of allograft dysfunction or pulmonary function decline in a single-center randomized trial of CLAD patients that did not meet enrollment goals but had an acceptable tolerance and side-effect profile.

Fibroproliferation in chronic lung allograft dysfunction: Association of mesenchymal cells in bronchoalveolar lavage with phenotypes and survival.

BACKGROUND: Chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD), the primary cause of poor outcome after lung transplantation, arises from fibrotic remodeling of the allograft and presents as diverse clinical phenotypes with variable courses. Here, we investigate whether bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) mesenchymal cell activity at CLAD onset can inform regarding disease phenotype, progression, and survival. METHODS: Mesenchymal cell colony-forming units (CFUs) were measured in BAL obtained at CLAD onset (n = 77) and CLAD-free time post-transplant matched controls (n = 77). CFU counts were compared using Wilcoxon's rank-sum test. Cox proportional hazards and restricted means models were utilized to investigate post-CLAD survival. RESULTS: Higher mesenchymal CFU counts were noted in BAL at the time of CLAD onset than in CLAD-free controls. Patients with restrictive allograft syndrome had higher BAL mesenchymal CFU count at CLAD onset than patients with bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (p = 0.011). Patients with high mesenchymal CFU counts (≥10) at CLAD onset had worse outcomes than those with low (<10) CFU counts, with shorter average survival (2.64 years vs 4.25 years; p = 0.027) and shorter progression-free survival, defined as time to developing either CLAD Stage 3 or death (0.97 years vs 2.70 years; p < 0.001). High CFU count remained predictive of decreased overall survival and progression-free survival after accounting for the CLAD phenotype and other clinical factors in multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Fulminant fibroproliferation with higher mesenchymal CFU counts in BAL is noted in restrictive allograft syndrome and is independently associated with poor survival after CLAD onset.

Frailty and geriatric conditions in older patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Functional status, an important predictor of health outcomes in older patients, has not been studied in an IPF population. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of frailty and geriatric conditions in older patients with IPF. METHODS: IPF patients age ≥65 years were identified prospectively at the University of Michigan. Frailty was assessed using the Fried frailty phenotype. Questionnaires addressing functional status, geriatric conditions and symptoms were administered. Quantitative measurement of pectoralis muscle area was performed. Patient variables were compared among different frailty groups. RESULTS: Of the 50 participants, 48% were found to be frail and 40% had ≥2 geriatric conditions. Frailty was associated with increased age, lower lung function, shorter 6-min walk distance, higher symptom scores and a greater number of comorbidities, geriatric conditions and functional limitations (p < 0.05). Pectoralis muscle area was nearly significant (p = 0.08). Self-reported fatigue score (odds ratio [OR] = 2.13, confidence interval [CI] 95% 1.23-3.70, p = 0.0068) and diffusion capacity (OR = 0.54 CI 95% 0.35-0.85, p = 0.0071) were independent predictors of frailty. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty and geriatric conditions are common in older patients with IPF. The presence of frailty was associated with objective (diffusion capacity) and subjective (self-reported fatigue score) data. Longitudinal evaluation is necessary to determine impact of frailty on disease-related outcomes in IPF.

Hypersensitivity Pneumonitis: Radiologic Phenotypes Are Associated With Distinct Survival Time and Pulmonary Function Trajectory.

BACKGROUND: Hypersensitivity pneumonitis (HP) is an interstitial lung disease with a better prognosis, on average, than idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We compare survival time and pulmonary function trajectory in patients with HP and IPF by radiologic phenotype. METHODS: HP (n = 117) was diagnosed if surgical/transbronchial lung biopsy, BAL, and exposure history results suggested this diagnosis. IPF (n = 152) was clinically and histopathologically diagnosed. All participants had a baseline high-resolution CT (HRCT) scan and FVC % predicted. Three thoracic radiologists documented radiologic features. Survival time is from HRCT scan to death or lung transplant. Cox proportional hazards models identify variables associated with survival time. Linear mixed models compare post-HRCT scan FVC % predicted trajectories. RESULTS: Subjects were grouped by clinical diagnosis and three mutually exclusive radiologic phenotypes: honeycomb present, non-honeycomb fibrosis (traction bronchiectasis and reticulation) present, and nonfibrotic. Nonfibrotic HP had the longest event-free median survival (> 14.73 years) and improving FVC % predicted (1.92%; 95% CI, 0.49-3.35; P = .009). HP with non-honeycomb fibrosis had longer survival than IPF (> 7.95 vs 5.20 years), and both groups experienced a significant decline in FVC % predicted. Subjects with HP and IPF with honeycombing had poor survival (2.76 and 2.81 years, respectively) and significant decline in FVC % predicted. CONCLUSIONS: Three prognostically distinct, radiologically defined phenotypes are identified among patients with HP. The importance of pursuing a specific diagnosis (eg, HP vs IPF) among patients with non-honeycomb fibrosis is highlighted. When radiologic honeycombing is present, invasive diagnostic testing directed at determining the diagnosis may be of limited value given a uniformly poor prognosis.

Elevated N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide is associated with mortality in tobacco smokers independent of airflow obstruction.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco use is associated with an increased prevalence of cardiovascular disease. N-terminal pro-brain natiuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), a widely available biomarker that is associated with cardiovascular outcomes in other conditions, has not been investigated as a predictor of mortality in tobacco smokers. We hypothesized that NT-proBNP would be an independent prognostic marker in a cohort of well-characterized tobacco smokers without known cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Clinical data from 796 subjects enrolled in two prospective tobacco exposed cohorts was assessed to determine factors associated with elevated NT-proBNP and the relationship of these factors and NT-proBNP with mortality. RESULTS: Subjects were followed for a median of 562 (IQR 252-826) days. Characteristics associated with a NT-proBNP above the median (≥49 pg/mL) were increased age, female gender, and decreased body mass index. By time-to-event analysis, an NT-proBNP above the median (≥49 pg/mL) was a significant predictor of mortality (log rank p = 0.02). By proportional hazard analysis controlling for age, gender, cohort, and severity of airflow obstruction, an elevated NT-proBNP level (≥49 pg/mL) remained an independent predictor of mortality (HR = 2.19, 95% CI 1.07-4.46, p = 0.031). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated NT-proBNP is an independent predictor of mortality in tobacco smokers without known cardiovascular disease, conferring a 2.2 fold increased risk of death. Future studies should assess the ability of this biomarker to guide further diagnostic testing and to direct specific cardiovascular risk reduction inventions that may positively impact quality of life and survival.