Forest fire vulnerability in Nepal's chure region: Investigating the influencing factors using generalized linear model.

The Chure region, among the world's youngest mountains, stands out as highly susceptible to natural calamities, particularly forest fires. The region has consistently experienced forest fire incidents, resulting in the degradation of valuable natural and anthropogenic resources. Despite its vulnerability, there have been limited studies to understand the relationship of various causative factors for the recurring fire problem. Hence, to comprehend the influencing factors for the recurring forest fire problem and its extent, we utilized generalized linear modeling under binary logistic regression to combine the dependent variable of satellite detected fire points and various independent variables. We conducted a variance inflation factor (VIF) test and correlation matrix to identify the 14 suitable variables for the study. The analysis revealed that forest fires occurred mostly during the three pre-monsoon periods and had a significant positive relation with the area under forest, rangeland, bare-grounds, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (P < 0.05). Consequently, our model showed that the probability of fire incidents decreases with elevation, precipitation, and population density (P < 0.05). Among the significant variables, the forest areas emerges as the most influencing factor, followed by precipitation, elevation, area of rangeland, population density, NDVI, and the area of bare ground. The validation of the model was done through the area under the curve (AUC = 0.92) and accuracy (ACC = 0.89) assessments, which showed the model performed excellently in terms of predictive capabilities. The modeling result and the forest fire susceptible map provide valuable insights into the forest fire vulnerability in the region, offering baseline information about forest fires that will be helpful for line agencies to prepare management strategies to further prevent the deterioration of the region.

Landscape predictors influencing livestock depredation by leopards in and around Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal.

Livestock depredation by leopards is a pervasive issue across many Asian and African range countries, particularly in and around protected areas. Developing effective conflict mitigation strategies requires understanding the landscape features influencing livestock depredation. In this study, we investigated predictors associated with livestock depredation by leopards using 274 cases of leopard attacks on livestock that occurred between 2017 and 2020 in the Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal. We also examined how livestock predation by leopards varied depending on the species, season, and time. A generalized linear model with binary logistic regression was used to test the statistical significance of variables associated with the presence and absence of conflict sites. The results revealed that the area of forest, agricultural land, length of rivers, slope, proximity to settlements and protected areas, and elevation significantly predicted the probability of leopard attacks on livestock. We also observed a significant increase in the incidence of leopard predation on livestock with decreasing slopes and rising elevations. The areas near human settlements and the protected areas faced a higher risk of leopard predation. The incidence of leopard predation on livestock varied significantly depending on the livestock species, season, and time. Goats were the most highly predated livestock, followed by sheep, cow/ox, and buffalo. A total of 289.11 km2 (or around 5% of the research area) was deemed to be at high risk for leopard predation on livestock. This study's comprehensive understanding of human-leopard conflicts provides valuable insights for planning and implementing measures to reduce damage caused by leopard populations throughout their range.

Status, distribution and habitat use by Mugger crocodile (Crocodylus palustris) in and around Koshi Tappu Wildlife Reserve, Nepal.

Mugger crocodile is found in various locations of Nepal, ranging from Eastern to Western lowlands, and is also a resident crocodilian of the Koshi Tappu Wildlife Reserve (KTWR). Fewer studies have been carried out on the status and distribution of this crocodilian with limited information on its habitat characteristics. This study sets forth to highlight the population status, distribution and habitat use by mugger crocodile in and around KTWR. Detailed surveys were conducted in the rivers, natural and private ponds of the KTWR in December 2020. Every 500 m along the survey transects, habitat characteristics were recorded in each habitat station as part of the habitat survey. The dependent variables were presence or absence of mugger crocodile in each habitat station. Meanwhile, the independent variables included habitat predictors such as; water depth, slope, elevation, distance to roads, distance to settlements, bank substrate, and human disturbance. Generalized Linear Model under binary logistic regression was employed to test variables associated with presence and absence of muggers for statistical significance. The population survey of the muggers was assessed by day counts either using dugout canoe or walking along transects. During the research period, 35 individuals of muggers were recorded. The probability of mugger sighting augmented with increased slope and depth. 34 muggers (97.14 %) were basking, while 1 (2.85%) were seen swimming out of the total muggers detected. In private and public ponds, 22 muggers were sighted, while 13 were sighted in the main Koshi river, its branches, and the Moriya river. Sixteen muggers (45.71 %) were sighted within the reserve, while the remaining 19 muggers (54.28 %) were sighted in the buffer-zone areas. The probability of mugger sighting varied considerably with regard to slope and water depth among the seven habitat predictors examined. In lieu of prevailing fishing pressure in the river systems of the KTWR and easy availability of prey species for muggers in private fishponds; the muggers are likely use private fishponds more frequently. In order to subdue the muggers inside the KTWR, the reserve authority has a vital role for proper habitat management decisions and regulation of fishing activities.