The value of dementia care towards the end of life-A contingent valuation study.

OBJECTIVES: A dementia nurse specialist (DNS) is expected to improve the quality of care and support to people with dementia nearing, and at, the end of life (EoL) by facilitating some key features of care. The aim of this study was to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) values from the general public perspective, for the different levels of support that the DNS can provide. METHODS: Contingent valuation methods were used to elicit the maximum WTP for scenarios describing different types of support provided by the DNS for EoL care in dementia. In a general population online survey, 1002 participants aged 18 years or more sampled from the United Kingdom provided valuations. Five scenarios were valued with mean WTP value calculated for each scenario along with the relationship between mean WTP and participant characteristics. RESULTS: The mean WTP varied across scenarios with higher values for the scenarios offering more features. Participants with some experience of dementia were willing to pay more compared with those with no experience. WTP values were higher for high-income groups compared with the lowest income level (P < .05). There was no evidence to suggest that respondent characteristics such as age, gender, family size, health utility or education status influenced the WTP values. CONCLUSION: The general population values the anticipated improvement in dementia care provided by a DNS. This study will help inform judgements on interventions to improve the quality of EoL care.

Evaluation of an Extended Stroke Rehabilitation Service (EXTRAS): A Randomized Controlled Trial and Economic Analysis.

Background and Purpose- There is limited evidence to guide rehabilitation to meet the longer term needs of stroke survivors. The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an extended stroke rehabilitation service (EXTRAS) provided following early supported discharge were determined. Methods- EXTRAS was a pragmatic parallel-group observer-blind randomized controlled trial involving 19 UK centers. Patients with stroke were individually randomized to receive EXTRAS or usual care at discharge from early supported discharge. Five EXTRAS reviews were provided by an early supported discharge team member between one and 18 months, usually by telephone. Reviews consisted of a semi-structured interview assessing progress, rehabilitation needs, and service provision, with goal setting and action planning. The primary outcome was performance in extended activities of daily living (Nottingham EADL Scale) at 24 months post-randomization. The Nottingham EADL Scale is scored 0 to 66, with higher scores indicating better performance in these activities. Cost-effectiveness was estimated using resource utilization costs and Quality Adjusted Life Years. Analyses were intention to treat. Results- Between January 9, 2013 and October 26, 2015, 573 participants were randomized (EXTRAS, n=285; usual care, n=288). Mean 24 month Nottingham EADL Scale scores were EXTRAS (n=219) 40.0 (SD 18.1) and usual care (n=231) 37.2 (SD 18.5) giving an adjusted mean difference of 1.8 (95% CI, -0.7 to 4.2). 1155/1338 (86%) of expected EXTRAS reviews were undertaken. Over 24 months, the mean cost of resource utilization was lower in the intervention group: -£311 (-$450 [95% CI, -£3292 to £2787; -$4764 to $4033]). EXTRAS provided more Quality Adjusted Life Years (0.07 [95% CI, 0.01 to 0.12]). At current conventional thresholds of willingness to pay (£20 000 [$28 940] per Quality Adjusted Life Years), there was a 90% chance that EXTRAS could be considered cost-effective. Conclusions- EXTRAS did not significantly improve stroke survivors' performance in extended activities of daily living. However, given the impact on costs and Quality Adjusted Life Years, EXTRAS may be an affordable addition to improve stroke care. Clinical Trial Registration- URL: www.isrctn.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN45203373.

Cost-effectiveness of a universal strategy of brief dietary intervention for primary prevention in primary care: population-based cohort study and Markov model.

BACKGROUND: A healthy diet is associated with reduced risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer. The study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a universal strategy to promote healthy diet through brief intervention in primary care. METHODS: The research was informed by a systematic review of randomised trials which found that brief interventions in primary care may be associated with a 0.5 portion per day increase in fruit and vegetable consumption. A Markov model that included five long-term conditions (diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, colorectal cancer and depression) was developed. Empirical data from a large cohort of United Kingdom-based participants sampled from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink populated the model. Simulations compared an intervention promoting healthy diet over 5 years in healthy adults, and standard care in which there was no intervention. The annual cost of intervention, in the base case, was one family practice consultation per participant year. Health service costs were included and the model adopted a lifetime perspective. The primary outcome was net health benefit in quality adjusted life years (QALYs). RESULTS: A cohort of 262,704 healthy participants entered the model. Intervention was associated with an increase in life years lived free from physical disease of 41.9 (95% confidence interval -17.4 to 101.0) per 1,000 participants entering the model (probability of increase 88.0%). New incidences of disease states were reduced by 28.4 (18.7 to 75.8) per 1,000, probability reduced 84.6%. Discounted incremental QALYs were 4.3 (-8.8 to 18.0) per 1,000, while incremental costs were £139,755 (£60,466 to 220,059) per 1,000. Net health benefits at £30,000 per QALY were -0.32 (-13.8 to 13.5) QALYs per 1,000 participants (probability cost-effective 47.9%). When the intervention was restricted to adults aged 50 to 74 years, net health benefits were 2.94 (-21.3 to 26.4) QALYs per 1000, probability increased 59.0%. CONCLUSIONS: A universal strategy to promote healthy diet through brief intervention in primary care is unlikely to be cost-effective, even when delivered at low unit cost. A targeted strategy aimed at older individuals at higher risk of disease might be more cost-effective. More effective dietary change interventions are needed.

Social and material deprivation and the cost-effectiveness of an intervention to promote physical activity: cohort study and Markov model.

BACKGROUND: We developed a method to model the cost-effectiveness at different levels of deprivation of an intervention to promote physical activity. METHODS: The cost-effectiveness of a brief intervention in primary care was estimated by means of a Markov model stratified by deprivation quintile. Estimates for disease incidence, mortality, depression prevalence and health service utilization were obtained from 282 887 participants in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink with linked deprivation scores. Discounted results were compared for least deprived and most deprived quintiles. RESULTS: An effective intervention to promote physical activity continuing for 5 years gave an increase in life years free from disease: least deprived 54.9 (95% interval 17.5-93.5) per 1000 participants entering model; most deprived 74.5 (22.8-128.0) per 1000. The overall incremental quality adjusted life years were: least deprived, 3.7 per 1000 and most deprived, 6.1 per 1000 with probability cost-effective at £30 000 per QALY being 52.5 and 63.3%, respectively. When the intervention was modelled to be 30% less effective in the most deprived than the least deprived quintile, the probability cost-effective was least deprived 52.9% and most deprived 55.9%. CONCLUSION: Physical activity interventions may generate greater health benefits in deprived populations. When intervention effectiveness is attenuated in deprived groups, cost-effectiveness may sometimes still be similar to that in the most affluent groups. Even with favourable assumptions, evidence was insufficient to support wider use of presently available brief primary care interventions in a universal strategy for primary prevention.

Feasibility and acceptability of autism adapted safety plans: an external pilot randomised controlled trial.

Background: Autistic people are a high-risk group for self-harm and suicide. There are no evidence-based suicide prevention interventions developed specifically for autistic people. We undertook a pilot feasibility randomised controlled trial of autism adapted safety plans (AASP) to reduce self-harm and suicide for autistic people. Methods: This study took place in the United Kingdom and followed a randomised, two-arm, controlled design. Autistic adults (n = 53, mean age = 39, gender = 49% female, 29% not male or female) were recruited via third sector organisations and self-referral between 11.8.21 and 19.10.22. Participants were randomised without stratification to usual care with or without AASP. The AASP was completed by the autistic adults together with someone trained to support them. Research staff who completed follow-up assessments were blind to participant allocation. Primary outcomes were feasibility and acceptability. Participants were assessed at baseline, 1 and 6 months. Primary data were analysed under the intention to treat principle. Study protocol is published. The trial is closed to new participants. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN70594445. Findings: 53 participants consented, 49 were randomised to either AASP with usual care (n = 25) or usual care (n = 24). 68% of participants in the AASP arm were satisfied with the AASP and 41% rated it as useable. Feedback on the AASP and research methods were positive with suggested adaptations to some outcome measures. Retention and completion of outcomes measures in both arms was excellent, as was fidelity of delivery of the AASP. Interpretation: Study progression criteria were met, suggesting that the parameters of a future definitive trial of clinical and cost effectiveness of AASP to reduce self-harm and suicide in autistic adults are achievable, with minor recommended adaptions to outcome measures and AASP. Future research should explore the use of AASP in routine clinical practice. Funding: This study is funded by the NIHR [Public Health Research Programme (NIHR129196)].

Effectiveness of interventions to promote healthy diet in primary care: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: A diet rich in fruit, vegetables and dietary fibre and low in fat is associated with reduced risk of chronic disease. This review aimed to estimate the effectiveness of interventions to promote healthy diet for primary prevention among participants attending primary care. METHODS: A systematic review of trials using individual or cluster randomisation of interventions delivered in primary care to promote dietary change over 12 months in healthy participants free from chronic disease or defined high risk states. Outcomes were change in fruit and vegetable intake, consumption of total fat and fibre and changes in serum cholesterol concentration. RESULTS: Ten studies were included with 12,414 participants. The design and delivery of interventions were diverse with respect to grounding in behavioural theory and intervention intensity. A meta-analysis of three studies showed an increase in fruit consumption of 0.25 (0.01 to 0.49) servings per day, with an increase in vegetable consumption of 0.25 (0.06 to 0.44) serving per day. A further three studies that reported on fruit and vegetable consumption together showed a pooled increment of 0.50 (0.13 to 0.87) servings per day. The pooled effect on consumption of dietary fibre, from four studies, was estimated to be 1.97 (0.43 to 3.52) gm fibre per day. Data from five studies showed a mean decrease in total fat intake of 5.2% of total energy (1.5 to 8.8%). Data from three studies showed a mean decrease in serum cholesterol of 0.10 (-0.19 to 0.00) mmol/L. CONCLUSION: Presently-reported interventions to promote healthy diet for primary prevention in primary care, which illustrate a diverse range of intervention methods, may yield small beneficial changes in consumption of fruit, vegetables, fibre and fat over 12 months. The present results do not exclude the possibility that more effective intervention strategies might be developed.

Adapted suicide safety plans to address self-harm, suicidal ideation, and suicide behaviours in autistic adults: protocol for a pilot randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Suicide prevention is a national priority for the UK government. Autistic people are at greater risk of experiencing self-harm and suicidal thoughts and behaviours than the general population. Safety plans are widely used in suicide prevention but have not yet been designed with and for autistic people. We developed the first safety plan specifically targeting suicidality in autistic adults: the Autism Adapted Safety Plan (AASP). It consists of a prioritised list of hierarchical steps that can be used prior to or during a crisis to mitigate risk of self-harm and suicidal behaviour. This is a pilot study that aims to assess the feasibility and acceptability of the AASPs and the research processes, including the response rates, potential barriers and reach of AASPs, methods of recruitment, what comprises usual care, and economic evaluation methods/tools. METHODS: This is an external pilot randomised controlled trial of a suicide prevention tool aimed at mitigating the risk of self-harm and suicidal behaviour in autistic adults: AASPs. Participants will be assessed at baseline and followed up 1 month and 6 months later. Assessments include questions about self-harm, suicidality, service use, and their experience of the AASP/taking part in the study. Autistic adults who have a clinical autism diagnosis and self-reported history of self-harm, suicidal thoughts, or suicidal behaviours within the last 6 months will be invited to take part in the study. Informed consent will be obtained. Participants will be recruited via community and third sector services (including community settings, autism charities, and mental health charities). They may also "self-refer" into the study through social media recruitment and word of mouth. Ninety participants will be randomised to either develop an AASP or receive their usual care in a 1:1 ratio. DISCUSSION: The present study will provide an evaluation of the suitability of the processes that would be undertaken in a larger definitive study, including recruitment, randomisation, methods, questionnaires, outcome measures, treatment, and follow-up assessments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN70594445, Protocol v4: 8/2/22.

Systematic review of the cost-effectiveness of screening for lung cancer with low dose computed tomography.

OBJECTIVES: Lung cancer (LC) remains a burden for patients and healthcare systems, with most cases only diagnosed once disease is late stage. Screening for LC with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) has shown a stage shift and led to a lung cancer-specific mortality reduction. Economic evaluations have been conducted which explore the benefits and costs of screening, however, previous systematic reviews concluded results were heterogeneous. LC screening has evolved and there have been further cost-effectiveness analyses conducted. The aim of this study was to provide an up-to-date systematic review of the cost-effectiveness of LC screening with LDCT. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Databases were searched for full papers published in English 01/1994-02/2022. Inclusion criteria was full economic evaluation of LC screening using LDCT compared to either no screening or chest X-ray. RESULTS: Forty-five evaluations were identified, three conducted alongside trials and 42 modelling studies. Thirty-nine evaluations (86.7%) found LC screening with LDCT to be cost-effective. Several findings were broadly consistent across studies: cost-effectiveness was optimal in those age 55-75 years and smoking history of at least 20 pack-years. Biennial screening was often more cost-effective than annual screening and would likely result in less additional findings and radiation exposure. A smoking cessation intervention alongside screening improved cost-effectiveness, but which intervention was optimal was unclear. Risk predictions models using more parameters to target participants for screening did not have more benefits than those using age and smoking alone, and cost-effectiveness was equivalent. Cost-effectiveness was sensitive to cost and specificity of LDCT, and disutility associated with screening. CONCLUSION: Overall, LC screening with LDCT is cost-effective in a high-risk population. Questions remain regarding risk prediction models, smoking cessation interventions and appropriateness of utility values in the screened population. Once these uncertainties are addressed, further economic evaluation may be required to inform policymakers prior to implementation.

Cost-effectiveness of an enhanced Paramedic Acute Stroke Treatment Assessment (PASTA) during emergency stroke care: Economic results from a pragmatic cluster randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: The Paramedic Acute Stroke Treatment Assessment (PASTA) trial evaluated an enhanced emergency care pathway which aimed to facilitate thrombolysis in hospital. A pre-planned health economic evaluation was included. The main results showed no statistical evidence of a difference in either thrombolysis volume (primary outcome) or 90-day dependency. However, counter-intuitive findings were observed with the intervention group showing fewer thrombolysis treatments but less dependency. AIMS: Cost-effectiveness of the PASTA intervention was examined relative to standard care. METHODS: A within trial cost-utility analysis estimated mean costs and quality-adjusted life years over 90 days' time horizon. Costs were derived from resource utilization data for individual trial participants. Quality-adjusted life years were calculated by mapping modified Rankin scale scores to EQ-5D-3L utility tariffs. A post-hoc subgroup analysis examined cost-effectiveness when trial hospitals were divided into compliant and non-compliant with recommendations for a stroke specialist thrombolysis rota. RESULTS: The trial enrolled 1214 patients: 500 PASTA and 714 standard care. There was no evidence of a quality-adjusted life year difference between groups [0·007 (95% CI: -0·003 to 0·018)] but costs were lower in the PASTA group [-£1473 (95% CI: -£2736 to -£219)]. There was over 97.5% chance that the PASTA pathway would be considered cost-effective. There was no evidence of a difference in costs at seven thrombolysis rota compliant hospitals but costs at eight non-complaint hospitals costs were lower in PASTA with more dominant cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Analyses indicate that the PASTA pathway may be considered cost-effective, particularly if deployed in areas where stroke specialist availability is limited.Trial Registration: ISRCTN12418919 www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN12418919.

Eliciting willingness-to-pay to prevent hospital medication administration errors in the UK: a contingent valuation survey.

Medication errors are common in hospitals. These errors can result in adverse drug events (ADEs), which can reduce the health and well-being of patients', and their relatives and caregivers. Interventions have been developed to reduce medication errors, including those that occur at the administration stage. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to elicit willingness-to-pay (WTP) values to prevent hospital medication administration errors. DESIGN AND SETTING: An online, contingent valuation (CV) survey was conducted, using the random card-sort elicitation method, to elicit WTP to prevent medication errors. PARTICIPANTS: A representative sample of the UK public. METHODS: Seven medication error scenarios, varying in the potential for harm and the severity of harm, were valued. Scenarios were developed with input from: clinical experts, focus groups with members of the public and piloting. Mean and median WTP values were calculated, excluding protest responses or those that failed a logic test. A two-part model (logit, generalised linear model) regression analysis was conducted to explore predictive characteristics of WTP. RESULTS: Responses were collected from 1001 individuals. The proportion of respondents willing to pay to prevent a medication error increased as the severity of the ADE increased and was highest for scenarios that described actual harm occurring. Mean WTP across the scenarios ranged from £45 (95% CI £36 to £54) to £278 (95% CI £200 to £355). Several factors influenced both the value and likelihood of WTP, such as: income, known experience of medication errors, sex, field of work, marriage status, education level and employment status. Predictors of WTP were not, however, consistent across scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: This CV study highlights how the UK public value preventing medication errors. The findings from this study could be used to carry out a cost-benefit analysis which could inform implementation decisions on the use of technology to reduce medication administration errors in UK hospitals.

Evaluating the feasibility and acceptability of an exercise and behaviour change intervention in socioeconomically deprived patients with peripheral arterial disease: The textpad study protocol.

This pilot randomised controlled trial aims to assess the feasibility and acceptability of a 12-week home-based telehealth exercise and behavioural intervention delivered in socioeconomically deprived patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD). The study will also determine the preliminary effectiveness of the intervention for improving clinical and health outcomes. Sixty patients with PAD who meet the inclusion criteria will be recruited from outpatient clinic at the Freeman Hospital, United Kingdom. The intervention group will undergo telehealth behaviour intervention performed 3 times per week over 3 months. This program will comprise a home-based exercise (twice a week) and an individual lifestyle program (once per week). The control group will receive general health recommendations and advice to perform unsupervised walking training. The primary outcome will be feasibility and acceptability outcomes. The secondary outcomes will be objective and subjective function capacity, quality of life, dietary quality, physical activity levels, sleep pattern, alcohol and tobacco use, mental wellbeing, and patients' activation. This pilot study will provide preliminary evidence of the feasibility, acceptability and effectiveness of home-based telehealth exercise and behavioural intervention delivered in socioeconomically deprived patients with PAD. In addition, the variance of the key health outcomes of this pilot study will be used to inform the sample size calculation for a future fully powered, multicentre randomized clinical trial.

COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVES: To describe epidemiological data on cases of COVID-19 and the spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in the United Kingdom (UK), and the subsequent policy and technological response to the pandemic, including impact on healthcare, business and the economy. METHODS: Epidemiological, business and economic data were extracted from official government sources covering the period 31st January to 13th August 2020; healthcare system data up to end of June 2019. RESULTS: UK-wide COVID-19 cases and deaths were 313,798 and 46,706 respectively (472 cases and 70 deaths per 100,000 population) by 12th August. There were regional variations in England, with London and North West (756 and 666 cases per 100,000 population respectively) disproportionately affected compared with other regions. As of 11th August, 13,618,470 tests had been conducted in the UK. Increased risk of mortality was associated with age (≥60 years), gender (male) and BAME groups. Since onset of the pandemic, emergency department attendance, primary care utilisation and cancer referrals and inpatient/outpatient referrals have declined; emergency ambulance and NHS111 calls increased. Business sectors most impacted are the arts, entertainment and recreation, followed by accommodation and food services. Government interventions aimed at curtailing the business and economic impact have been implemented, but applications for state benefits have increased. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of COVID-19 on the UK population, health system and economy has been profound. More data are needed to implement the optimal policy and technological responses to preventing further spikes in COVID-19 cases, and to inform strategic planning to manage future pandemics.

An extended stroke rehabilitation service for people who have had a stroke: the EXTRAS RCT.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence about the effectiveness of rehabilitation in meeting the longer-term needs of stroke patients and their carers. OBJECTIVE: To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an extended stroke rehabilitation service (EXTRAS). DESIGN: A pragmatic, observer-blind, parallel-group, multicentre randomised controlled trial with embedded health economic and process evaluations. Participants were randomised (1 : 1) to receive EXTRAS or usual care. SETTING: Nineteen NHS study centres. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with a new stroke who received early supported discharge and their informal carers. INTERVENTIONS: Five EXTRAS reviews provided by an early supported discharge team member between 1 and 18 months post early supported discharge, usually over the telephone. Reviewers assessed rehabilitation needs, with goal-setting and action-planning. Control treatment was usual care post early supported discharge. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was performance in extended activities of daily living (Nottingham Extended Activities of Daily Living Scale) at 24 months post randomisation. Secondary outcomes at 12 and 24 months included patient mood (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale), health status (Oxford Handicap Scale), experience of services and adverse events. For carers, secondary outcomes included carers' strain (Caregiver Strain Index) and experience of services. Cost-effectiveness was estimated using resource utilisation costs (adaptation of the Client Service Receipt Inventory) and quality-adjusted life-years. RESULTS: A total of 573 patients (EXTRAS, n = 285; usual care, n = 288) with 194 carers (EXTRAS, n = 103; usual care, n = 91) were randomised. Mean 24-month Nottingham Extended Activities of Daily Living Scale scores were 40.0 (standard deviation 18.1) for EXTRAS (n = 219) and 37.2 (standard deviation 18.5) for usual care (n = 231), giving an adjusted mean difference of 1.8 (95% confidence interval -0.7 to 4.2). The mean intervention group Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale scores were not significantly different at 12 and 24 months. The intervention did not improve patient health status or carer strain. EXTRAS patients and carers reported greater satisfaction with some aspects of care. The mean cost of resource utilisation was lower in the intervention group: -£311 (95% confidence interval -£3292 to £2787), with a 68% chance of EXTRAS being cost-saving. EXTRAS was associated with 0.07 (95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.12) additional quality-adjusted life-years. At current conventional thresholds of willingness to pay for a quality-adjusted life-year, there is a 90% chance that EXTRAS is cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: EXTRAS did not improve stroke survivors' performance in extended activities of daily living but did improve their overall satisfaction with services. Given the impact on costs and quality-adjusted life-years, there is a high chance that EXTRAS could be considered cost-effective. FUTURE WORK: Further research is required to identify whether or not community-based interventions can improve performance of extended activities of daily living, and to understand the improvements in health-related quality of life and costs seen by provision of intermittent longer-term specialist review. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN45203373. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 24. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Early supported discharge enables stroke patients with mild or moderate disability to be discharged earlier than usual from hospital to continue rehabilitation at home. Randomised controlled trials have demonstrated that early supported discharge leads to increased independence for stroke survivors, and that early supported discharge is cost-effective. Early supported discharge is usually provided for up to 6 weeks and patients with ongoing physical, psychological or social needs are then referred to other services. In the UK, provision of longer-term rehabilitation is often limited. Lack of research evidence has meant that service development in this aspect of stroke care has lagged behind service development for acute care. This clinical trial evaluated an extended stroke rehabilitation service (EXTRAS) that started when early supported discharge ended. Stroke survivors and their carers were randomly assigned to receive EXTRAS or usual NHS care. EXTRAS involved five rehabilitation reviews conducted over 18 months by an early supported discharge team member, usually over the telephone. Each review consisted of an assessment of current needs, goal-setting and action-planning, and sought to improve patients' abilities and confidence to undertake extended activities of daily living (mobility, kitchen and domestic tasks, and leisure activities). There were no specific assessments or actions for carers but it was important to evaluate the impact that the new service had on carers. Patients and carers were followed up for 2 years and information was collected about their activities, mood, quality of life and services received. EXTRAS did not improve stroke survivors' performance in extended activities of daily living. However, patients who received EXTRAS reported less anxiety and less depression than those who received usual care, and patients and carers were more satisfied with some aspects of their care. EXTRAS did not improve carers' quality of life or stress. Health economic analyses suggest that EXTRAS improved patients' quality of life and may be good value for money. Further research is needed to identify other treatments to address the longer-term consequences of stroke.

Preferences for centralised emergency medical services: discrete choice experiment.

OBJECTIVES: It is desirable that public preferences are established and incorporated in emergency healthcare reforms. The aim of this study was to investigate preferences for local versus centralised provision of all emergency medical services (EMS) and explore what individuals think are important considerations for EMS delivery. DESIGN: A discrete choice experiment was conducted. The attributes used in the choice scenarios were: travel time to the hospital, waiting time to be seen, length of stay in the hospital, risks of dying, readmission and opportunity for outpatient care after emergency treatment at a local hospital. SETTING: North East England. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were a randomly sampled general population, aged 16 years or above recruited from Healthwatch Northumberland network database of lay members and from clinical contact with Northumbria Healthcare National Health Service Foundation Trust via Patient Experience Team. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Analysis used logistic regression modelling techniques to determine the preference of each attribute. Marginal rates of substitution between attributes were estimated to understand the trade-offs individuals were willing to make. RESULTS: Responses were obtained from 148 people (62 completed a web and 86 a postal version). Respondents preferred shorter travel time to hospital, shorter waiting time, fewer number of days in hospital, low risk of death, low risk of readmission and outpatient follow-up care in their local hospital. However, individuals were willing to trade off increased travel time and waiting time for high-quality centralised care. Individuals were willing to travel 9 min more for a 1-day reduction in length of stay in the hospital, 38 min for a 1% reduction in risk of death and 112 min for having outpatient follow-up care at their local hospital. CONCLUSIONS: People value centralised EMS if it provides higher quality care and are willing to travel further and wait longer.

Economic evaluations on centralisation of specialised healthcare services: a systematic review of methods.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review and appraise the quality of economic evaluations assessing centralisation of specialised healthcare services. METHODS: A systematic review to identify economic evaluations on centralisation of any specialised healthcare service. Full economic evaluations comparing costs and consequences of centralisation of any specialised healthcare service were eligible for inclusion. Methodological characteristics of included studies were appraised using checklists adapted from recommended guidelines. RESULTS: A total of 64 full-text articles met the inclusion criteria. Two studies were conducted in the UK. Most of the studies used volume of activity as a proxy measure of centralisation. The methods used to assess centralisation were heterogeneous. Studies differed in terms of study design used and aspect of centralisation they considered. There were major limitations in studies. Only 12 studies reported the study perspective. Charges which are not true representation of costs were used by 17 studies to assess cost outcomes. Only 10 reported the detailed breakdown of the cost components used in their analysis. Discounting was necessary in 14 studies but was reported only in 7 studies. Sensitivity analyses were included by less than one-third of the studies. The applicability of the identified studies to a setting other than the one they were conducted in is questionable, given variations in the organisation of services and healthcare costs. Centralisation as a concept has also been variably and narrowly defined as activity of specific services which may not reflect the wider aspects of centralisation. CONCLUSIONS: Confounded and biased information coming from studies without standardised methods may mislead decision-makers towards making wrong decisions on centralisation. It is important to improve the methodology and reporting of economic evaluations in order to provide more robust and transferable evidence. Wider aspects of healthcare centralisation should be considered in the estimates of costs and health outcomes.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of a universal strategy to promote physical activity in primary care: population-based cohort study and Markov model.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a universal strategy to promote physical activity in primary care. METHODS: Data were analysed for a cohort of participants from the general practice research database. Empirical estimates informed a Markov model that included five long-term conditions (diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, colorectal cancer and depression). Simulations compared an intervention promoting physical activity in healthy adults with standard care. The intervention effect on physical activity was from a meta-analysis of randomised trials. The annual cost of intervention, in the base case, was one family practice consultation per participant year. The primary outcome was net health benefit in quality adjusted life years (QALYs). RESULTS: A cohort of 262,704 healthy participants entered the model. Intervention was associated with an increase in life years lived free from physical disease. With 5 years intervention the increase was 52 (95 % interval -11 to 115) per 1,000 participants entering the model (probability increased 91.9 %); with 10 years intervention the increase was 102 (42-164) per 1,000 (probability 99.7 %). Net health benefits at a threshold of £30,000 per QALY were 3.2 (-11.1 to 16.9) QALYs per 1,000 participants with 5 years intervention (probability cost-effective 64.7 %) and 5.0 (-9.5 to 19.3) with 10 years intervention (probability cost-effective 72.4 %). CONCLUSIONS: A universal strategy to promote physical activity in primary care has the potential to increase life years lived free from physical disease. There is only weak evidence that a universal intervention strategy might prove cost-effective.

Impact of deprivation on occurrence, outcomes and health care costs of people with multiple morbidity.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the impact of deprivation on the occurrence, health outcomes and health care costs of people with multiple morbidity in England. METHODS: Cohort study in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, using deprivation quintile (IMD2010) at individual postcode level. Incidence and mortality from diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, stroke and colorectal cancer, and prevalence of depression, were used to define multidisease states. Costs of health care use were estimated for each state from a two-part model. RESULTS: Data were analysed for 141,535 men and 141,352 women aged ≥30 years, with 33,862 disease incidence events, and 13,933 deaths. Among incidences of single conditions, 22% were in the most deprived quintile and 19% in the least deprived; dual conditions, most deprived 26%, least deprived 16% and triple conditions, most deprived 29%, least deprived 14%. Deaths in participants without disease were distributed most deprived 22%, least deprived 19%; in participants with single conditions, most deprived 24%, least deprived 18%; dual conditions, most deprived 27%, least deprived 15%, and triple conditions, most deprived 33%, least deprived 17%. The relative rate of depression in most deprived participants with triple conditions, compared with least deprived and no disease, was 2.48 (1.74 to 3.54). Costs of health care use were associated with increasing deprivation and level of morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: The higher incidence of disease, associated with deprivation, channels deprived populations into categories of multiple morbidity with a greater prevalence of depression, higher mortality and higher costs. This has implications for the way that resources are allocated in England's National Health Service.

Coding, recording and incidence of different forms of coronary heart disease in primary care.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the coding, recording and incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) in primary care electronic medical records. METHODS: Data were drawn from the UK General Practice Research Database. Analyses evaluated the occurrence of 271 READ medical diagnostic codes, including categories for 'Angina', 'Myocardial Infarction', 'Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting' (CABG), 'percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty' (PCTA) and 'Other Coronary Heart Disease'. Time-to-event analyses were implemented to evaluate occurrences of different groups of codes after the index date. RESULTS: Among 300,020 participants aged greater than 30 years there were 75,197 unique occurrences of coronary heart disease codes in 24,244 participants, with 12,495 codes for incident events and 62,702 for prevalent events. Among incident event codes, 3,607 (28.87%) were for angina, 3,262 (26.11%) were for MI, 514 (4.11%) for PCTA, 161 (1.29%) for CABG and 4,951 (39.62%) were for 'Other CHD'. Among prevalent codes, 20,254 (32.30%) were for angina, 3,644 (5.81%) for MI, 34,542 (55.09%) for 'Other CHD' and 4,262 (6.80%) for CABG or PCTA. Among 3,685 participants initially diagnosed exclusively with 'Other CHD' codes, 17.1% were recorded with angina within 5 years, 5.6% with myocardial infarction, 6.3% with CABG and 8.6% with PCTA. From 2000 to 2010, the overall incidence of CHD declined, as did the incidence of angina, but the incidence of MI did not change. The frequency of CABG declined, while PCTA increased. CONCLUSION: In primary care electronic records, a substantial proportion of coronary heart disease events are recorded with codes that do not distinguish between different clinical presentations of CHD. The results draw attention to the need to improve coding practice in primary care. The results also draw attention to the importance of code selection in research studies and the need for sensitivity analyses using different sets of codes.