Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking. METHODS: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6). CONCLUSIONS: Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).

The Southern European Atlantic diet and depression risk: a European multicohort study.

The Southern European Atlantic diet (SEAD) is the traditional dietary pattern of north-western Spain and northern Portugal, but it may resemble that of other European countries. The SEAD has been found associated with lower risk for myocardial infarction and mortality. Since dietary patterns may also influence mental health, we examined the association between the SEAD and depression risk in southern, central, eastern, and western European populations. We conducted a prospective analysis of five cohorts (13,297 participants aged 45-92 years, free of depression at baseline): Seniors-ENRICA-1 and Seniors-ENRICA-2 (Spain), HAPIEE (Czechia and Poland), and Whitehall-II (United Kingdom). The SEAD comprised cod, other fresh fish, red meat and pork products, dairy, legumes and vegetables, vegetable soup, potatoes, whole-grain bread, and moderate wine consumption. Depression at follow-up was defined according to presence of depressive symptoms (based on available scales), use of prescribed antidepressants, inpatient admissions, or self-reported diagnosis. Associations were adjusted for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and dietary variables. During a median follow-up of 3.9 years (interquartile range 3.4-4.9), there were 1437 new depression cases. Higher adherence to the SEAD was associated with lower depression risk in the pooled sample. Individual food groups showed a similar tendency, albeit non-significant. The fully adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) per 1-standard deviation increment in the SEAD was 0.91 (0.86, 0.96). This association was rather consistent across countries [Spain = 0.86 (0.75, 0.99), Czechia = 0.86 (0.75, 0.99), Poland = 0.97 (0.89, 1.06), United Kingdom = 0.85 (0.75, 0.97); p for interaction = 0.24], and was of similar magnitude as that found for existing healthy dietary patterns. In conclusion, the SEAD was associated with lower depression risk across European populations. This may support the development of mood disorder guidelines for Southern European Atlantic regions based on their traditional diet, and for central, eastern, and western European populations based on the SEAD food groups that are culturally rooted in these places.

Early-Life Temperamental Differences as Longitudinal Predictors of Unintentional Injuries.

OBJECTIVE: Unintentional injuries are the leading cause of hospitalization and death among children. Compared to environmental factors, less attention in injury preventive efforts has been paid to how individual characteristics relate to the risk of injury. Using a large prospective cohort, the current study assessed the longitudinal impact of early-life temperament on the cumulative number of injuries until mid-adolescence. METHODS: The data came from the European Longitudinal Study of Pregnancy and Childhood (ELSPAC-CZ). Temperament was evaluated by mothers when children were 3 years old (N = 3,545). The main outcome was the pediatrician-reported sum of child's injuries from age 3 to 15 (seven timepoints). Latent profile analysis (LPA) was used to determine classes based on temperamental dimensions and then extended to a mixture model with a distal count outcome. The covariates included maternal conflict and attachment, sex, family structure, and maternal education. RESULTS: The LPA determined the existence of three classes: shy children (8.1% of the sample; lowest activity/highest shyness), outgoing children (50.8%; highest activity/lowest shyness), and average: children (41.1%; middle values). Results from a mixture model showed that the outgoing temperament was associated with the highest longitudinal risk for injuries, as both average children (IRR = 0.89 [0.80, 0.99]), and the shy children (IRR = 0.80 [0.68, 0.95]) had lower risk. CONCLUSIONS: Early childhood temperamental differences can have long-term effects on injury risk. Highly active children showed the highest risk for future injuries, suggesting that these characteristics make them more likely to be involved in novel and potentially dangerous situations.

Longitudinal association of grip strength with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in older urban Lithuanian population.

BACKGROUND: Ageing populations experience greater risks associated with health and survival. It increases the relevance of identifying variables associated with mortality. Grip strength (GS) has been identified as an important biomarker for all cause and cardiovascular mortality, however, its prognostic value has not been studied in Lithuania. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the relationship of GS to vital status in a representative sample of the Lithuanian 45-72-year-old urban population during the period of 12 years of follow-up and to explore associations of GS with all-cause mortality and mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD). METHODS: Within the framework of the international study Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial Factors in Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) 7,115 men and women 45-72 years of age were examined in the baseline survey (2006 to 2008). Data from the Official Lithuanian Mortality Register were used to evaluate CVD and all-cause mortality from follow-up till 2020. Cox proportional hazards regression was used, and four models for all-cause and CVD mortality were assessed. RESULTS: The mean GS was significantly higher among survivors' men and women as compared to individuals deceased from CVD and other causes of death. In survivor men and women groups, minimal values of GS in all terciles were higher as compared to all three deceased groups. In both men and women groups, the lowest GS (1st tercile) was associated with a significantly higher risk of all-cause and CVD mortality as compared to the highest levels of GS (3rd tercile) in three Cox regression models. In both men and women were found to have a 1.34- and 1.35-fold higher risk of all-cause mortality, respectively, at lower GS, but no significant difference in the risk of CVD mortality. When GS was treated in all models as decrement per 1 kg and decrement per 1 SD, in both men and women, the risk of all-cause mortality significantly increased with decreasing of GS. CONCLUSIONS: The mean GS was significantly higher among survivors' men and women as compared to deceased from CVD and other causes of death. Risk of all-cause mortality significantly increased with decreasing of GS.

Living in poverty and accelerated biological aging: evidence from population-representative sample of U.S. adults.

BACKGROUND: Biological aging reflects a decline in the functions and integrity of the human body that is closely related to chronological aging. A variety of biomarkers have been found to predict biological age. Biological age higher than chronological age (biological age acceleration) indicates an accelerated state of biological aging and a higher risk of premature morbidity and mortality. This study investigated how socioeconomic disadvantages influence biological aging. METHODS: The data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) IV, including 10 nationally representative cross-sectional surveys between 1999-2018, were utilized. The analytic sample consisted of N = 48,348 individuals (20-84 years). We used a total of 11 biomarkers for estimating the biological age. Our main outcome was biological age acceleration, indexed by PhenoAge acceleration (PAA) and Klemera-Doubal biological age acceleration (KDM-A). Poverty was measured as a ratio of family income to the poverty thresholds defined by the U.S. Census Bureau, adjusted annually for inflation and family size (5 categories). The PAA and KDM-A were regressed on poverty levels, age, their interaction, education, sex, race, and a data collection wave. Sample weights were used to make the estimates representative of the U.S. adult population. RESULTS: The results showed that higher poverty was associated with accelerated biological aging (PAA: unstandardized coefficient B = 1.38 p <.001, KDM: B = 0.96, p = .026 when comparing the highest and the lowest poverty level categories), above and beyond other covariates. The association between PAA and KDM-A and age was U-shaped. Importantly, there was an interaction between poverty levels and age (p <.001), as the effect of poverty was most pronounced in middle-aged categories while it was modest in younger and elderly groups. CONCLUSION: In a nationally representative US adult population, we found that higher poverty was positively associated with the acceleration of biological age, particularly among middle-aged persons.

Exploring the incremental utility of circulating biomarkers for robust risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation in European cohorts using regressions and modern machine learning methods.

AIMS: To identify robust circulating predictors for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) using classical regressions and machine learning (ML) techniques within a broad spectrum of candidate variables. METHODS AND RESULTS: In pooled European community cohorts (n = 42 280 individuals), 14 routinely available biomarkers mirroring distinct pathophysiological pathways including lipids, inflammation, renal, and myocardium-specific markers (N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], high-sensitivity troponin I [hsTnI]) were examined in relation to incident AF using Cox regressions and distinct ML methods. Of 42 280 individuals (21 843 women [51.7%]; median [interquartile range, IQR] age, 52.2 [42.7, 62.0] years), 1496 (3.5%) developed AF during a median follow-up time of 5.7 years. In multivariable-adjusted Cox-regression analysis, NT-proBNP was the strongest circulating predictor of incident AF [hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD), 1.93 (95% CI, 1.82-2.04); P < 0.001]. Further, hsTnI [HR per SD, 1.18 (95% CI, 1.13-1.22); P < 0.001], cystatin C [HR per SD, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.10-1.23); P < 0.001], and C-reactive protein [HR per SD, 1.08 (95% CI, 1.02-1.14); P = 0.012] correlated positively with incident AF. Applying various ML techniques, a high inter-method consistency of selected candidate variables was observed. NT-proBNP was identified as the blood-based marker with the highest predictive value for incident AF. Relevant clinical predictors were age, the use of antihypertensive medication, and body mass index. CONCLUSION: Using different variable selection procedures including ML methods, NT-proBNP consistently remained the strongest blood-based predictor of incident AF and ranked before classical cardiovascular risk factors. The clinical benefit of these findings for identifying at-risk individuals for targeted AF screening needs to be elucidated and tested prospectively.

Low fruit and vegetable intake is associated with poor self-rated health in the Czech part of the HAPIEE study.

Background: Although fruits and vegetables are considered a pillar of healthy eating, previous evidence suggests that their consumption in Eastern European countries is low, and their association with health outcomes has rarely been researched in this region. Aim: To examine the effect of fruit and vegetable intake on self-rated health (SRH) in the Czech arm of the Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial factors in Eastern Europe prospective cohort study. Methods: Dietary data on fruit and vegetable intake was measured at baseline using food frequency questionnaires, and SRH from the second wave was chosen as the main outcome. The relationship between fruit and vegetable intake and SRH was analysed using multivariable ordinal regression. Results: A total of 4255 persons aged 45-69, in good and very good SRH at baseline were included in the longitudinal analysis, with a median follow-up time of 3.7 years. In the second wave, 218 (5.1%) individuals reported poor or very poor SRH. In the fully adjusted model, individuals in the lowest fruit and vegetable intake quartile had higher odds of poor SRH compared to those in the highest quartile (OR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.01-1.52). When examined separately, the results were similar: for vegetables (OR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.03-1.51) and fruit (OR = 1.18, 95% CI: 0.97-1.44). Conclusion: The observed longitudinal association suggests that low fruit and vegetable intake is associated with poor SRH in the Czech Republic. Considering almost half of our sample reported less than the daily recommended intake of 400 grams of fruits and vegetables, higher consumption should be supported.

Impaired lung function and mortality in Eastern Europe: results from multi-centre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The association between impaired lung function and mortality has been well documented in the general population of Western European countries. We assessed the risk of death associated with reduced spirometry indices among people from four Central and Eastern European countries. METHODS: This prospective population-based cohort includes men and women aged 45-69 years, residents in urban settlements in Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Lithuania, randomly selected from population registers. The baseline survey in 2002-2005 included 36,106 persons of whom 24,993 met the inclusion criteria. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratios of mortality over 11-16 years of follow-up for mild, moderate, moderate-severe and very severe lung function impairment categories. RESULTS: After adjusting for covariates, mild (hazard ratio (HR): 1.25; 95% CI 1.15‒1.37) to severe (HR: 3.35; 95% CI 2.62‒4.27) reduction in FEV1 was associated with an increased risk of death according to degree of lung impairment, compared to people with normal lung function. The association was only slightly attenuated but remained significant after exclusion of smokers and participants with previous history of respiratory diseases. The HRs varied between countries but not statistically significant; the highest excess risk among persons with more severe impairment was seen in Poland (HR: 4.28, 95% CI 2.14‒8.56) and Lithuania (HR: 4.07, 95% CI 2.21‒7.50). CONCLUSIONS: Reduced FEV1 is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality, with risk increasing with the degree of lung function impairment and some country-specific variation between the cohorts.

Prenatal psychosocial stress and children's sleep problems: Evidence from the ELSPAC-CZ study.

Prenatal exposure to maternal stress may increase the risk of developing sleep problems in childhood. This study examined the association between prenatal stressful life events (PSLE) and children's sleep problems, taking into consideration their trajectory over time. Data were obtained from the Czech portion of the European Longitudinal Cohort Study of Pregnancy and Childhood (ELSPAC-CZ; N = 4,371 children). Mothers reported PSLE using an inventory of 42 life events and child sleep problems at five time-points (child age of 1.5, 3, 5, 7, and 11 years). The association was tested by a Poisson latent growth model, controlling for maternal and family demographics, birth characteristics, maternal depression, and alcohol use in pregnancy. The average rate of sleep problems was 2.06 (p < 0.001) at the age of 1.5 years and the rate of sleep problems decreased in a linear fashion over time (estimate = -0.118; p < 0.001). A higher number of PSLE was associated with a higher rate of sleep problems at the age of 1.5 years (incidence rate ratio [IRR] per interquartile range = 1.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.12, p < 0.001) and with a reduced rate of decrease in sleep problems between the ages of 1.5 and 11 years (p < 0.001). Thus, PSLE were associated with chronicity of sleep problems in addition to their amount during early childhood. Prenatal exposure to stress may predispose individuals to the development of sleep problems in later life.

Reliability and predictive validity of two scales of self-rated health in China: results from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS).

BACKGROUND: Despite the widespread use of the single item self-rated health (SRH) question, its reliability has never been evaluated in Chinese population. METHODS: We used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, waves 1-4 (2011-2019). In wave 1, the same SRH question was asked twice, separated by other questions, on a subset of 4533 subjects, allowing us to examine the test-retest reliability of SRH. In addition, two versions of SRH questions (the WHO and US versions) were asked (n = 11,429). Kappa (κ), weighted kappa ([Formula: see text]), and polychoric correlation coefficient (ρ) were used for reliability assessment. Cox proportional-hazards models were estimated to assess the predictive validity of SRH measurement for mortality over 7 years of follow up. To do so, relative index of inequality (RII) and slope index of inequality (SII) were estimated for each SRH scale. RESULTS: There was moderate to substantial test-retest reliability (κ = 0.54, [Formula: see text]=0.63) of SRH; 31% of respondents who used the same scale twice changed their ratings after answering other questions. There was strong positive association between the two SRH measured by the two scales (ρ > 0.8). Compared with excellent/very good SRH, adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of death are 2.30 (95% CI, 1.70-3.13) for the US version and 1.86 (95% CI, 1.33-2.60) for the WHO version. Using slope indices of inequality, the WHO version estimated slightly larger mortality differences (RII = 3.50, SII = 15.53) than the US version (RII = 3.25, SII = 14.80). CONCLUSIONS: In Chinese middle-aged and older population, the reliability of SRH is generally good, although the two commonly used versions of SRH scales could not be compared directly. Both indices predict mortality, with similar predictive validity.

Lifestyle factors and psychological well-being: 10-year follow-up study in Lithuanian urban population.

BACKGROUND: Several lifestyle behaviours, including physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, nutrition habits, and social activity have been associated with psychological well-being (PWB). However, their effect on PWB prospectively has been less studied. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the influence of lifestyle factors on higher future PWB during the 10-year follow-up of middle-aged and elderly urban population. METHODS: In the baseline survey (2006 to 2008), 7115 men and women 45-72 years of age were examined within the framework of the international study Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial Factors in the Eastern Europe (HAPIEE). In the follow-up survey (in 2016), which was performed among all 6210 participants who survived till that year, 4266 individuals participated responding to postal questionnaires. PWB was assessed by a CASP-12 questionnaire. The lifestyle behaviours, including smoking and nutrition habits, alcohol consumption, social and physical activity, were evaluated by the questionnaire. Multivariable logistic regression models were applied for statistical data analysis. RESULTS: After accounting for several potential confounders, healthy levels of lifestyle behaviours were associated with higher PWB after 10-year follow-up. Never-smokers in men and former smokers in women had higher PWB by 43 and 67% odds respectively in comparison with smokers. Physical activity in women and high social activity both in men in women was positively related to higher PWB. More frequent fresh vegetable and fruit consumption was associated with higher odds of higher PWB (odds ratio 1.57 in men and 1.36 in women, p < 0.05) compared to less frequent consumption of such food groups. Dose-response relationship between increasing number of healthy lifestyle factors and higher PWB was determined both in men and women. CONCLUSIONS: Lifestyle factors such as never smoking and former smoking, high social activity, and more frequent fresh vegetable and fruit consumption increased the odds of higher PWB over 10 years of follow-up in men and women groups. The increase of the protective health behaviour score was directly associated with the odds of higher PWB.

Prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia, and associated risk factors in the Czech Republic, Russia, Poland and Lithuania: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Empirical evidence on the epidemiology of hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia is limited in many countries in Central and Eastern Europe. We aimed to estimate the prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia in the Czech Republic, Russia, Poland and Lithuania, and to identify the risk factors for the three chronic conditions. METHODS: We analysed cross-sectional data from the HAPIEE study, including adults aged 45-69 years in the Czech Republic, Russia, Poland and Lithuania, collected between 2002 and 2008 (total sample N = 30,882). Among prevalent cases, we estimated awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia by gender and country. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to identify associated risk factors. RESULTS: In each country among both men and women, we found high prevalence but low control of hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia. Awareness rates of hypertension were the lowest in both men (61.40%) and women (69.21%) in the Czech Republic, while awareness rates of hypercholesterolemia were the highest in both men (46.51%) and women (51.20%) in Poland. Polish participants also had the highest rates of awareness (77.37% in men and 79.53% in women), treatment (71.99% in men and 74.87% in women) and control (30.98% in men and 38.08% in women) of diabetes. The common risk factors for the three chronic conditions were age, gender, education, obesity and alcohol consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of awareness, treatment and control rates of hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia differed by country. Efforts should be made in all four countries to control these conditions, including implementation of international guidelines in everyday practice to improve detection and effective management of these conditions.

The Prognostic Value of Combined Status of Body Mass Index and Psychological Well-Being for the Estimation of All-Cause and CVD Mortality Risk: Results from a Long-Term Cohort Study in Lithuania.

Background and Objectives: It is very important to analyze how body mass index (BMI) and psychological well-being (PWB) combination may be differentially associated with mortality risk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the additional prognostic value of the combined status of BMI and PWB for the estimation of all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk in the adult Lithuanian urban population. Materials and Methods: Initial data were collected within the framework of the international cohort HAPIEE study from 2006 to 2008. A random sample of 7115 individuals aged 45-72 years was screened. The response rate was 65%. Deaths were evaluated by the death register of Kaunas city (Lithuania) in a follow-up study until 31 December 2020. The mean (SD) duration of the follow-up for the endpoints period was 12.60 (2.79) years. PWB was evaluated by a CASP-12 questionnaire. Results: The findings from the Cox proportional hazards regression multivariable analysis showed that the combinations of underweight plus lower PWB and severe obesity plus lower PWB increased all-cause mortality risk in men (respectively hazard ratio (HR) = 5.65 and HR = 1.60) and in women (respectively HR = 6.02 and HR = 1.77); and increased the risk of mortality from CVD in men (respectively HR = 6.69 and HR = 2.19) compared with responders with normal weight plus higher PWB. The combination of severe obesity plus higher PWB significantly increased the risk of all-cause and CVD mortality risk in men. The combinations of normal weight plus lower PWB and overweight plus lower PWB significantly increased the risk of all-cause mortality risk in men. Conclusions: The combination of severe obesity independently on lower or higher PWB and the combination of underweight plus lower PWB is a strong predictor for all-cause and CVD mortality risk in men and a strong predictor for all-cause mortality risk in women.

Sex differences in mortality: results from a population-based study of 12 longitudinal cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Women generally have longer life expectancy than men but have higher levels of disability and morbidity. Few studies have identified factors that explain higher mortality in men. The aim of this study was to identify potential factors contributing to sex differences in mortality at older age and to investigate variation across countries. METHODS: This study included participants age ≥ 50 yr from 28 countries in 12 cohort studies of the Ageing Trajectories of Health: Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) consortium. Using a 2-step individual participant data meta-analysis framework, we applied Cox proportional hazards modelling to investigate the association between sex and mortality across different countries. We included socioeconomic (education, wealth), lifestyle (smoking, alcohol consumption), social (marital status, living alone) and health factors (cardiovascular disease, diabetes, mental disorders) as covariates or interaction terms with sex to test whether these factors contributed to the mortality gap between men and women. RESULTS: The study included 179 044 individuals. Men had 60% higher mortality risk than women after adjustment for age (pooled hazard ratio [HR] 1.6; 95% confidence interval 1.5-1.7), yet the effect sizes varied across countries (I 2 = 71.5%, HR range 1.1-2.4). Only smoking and cardiovascular diseases substantially attenuated the effect size (by about 22%). INTERPRETATION: Lifestyle and health factors may partially account for excess mortality in men compared with women, but residual variation remains unaccounted for. Variation in the effect sizes across countries may indicate contextual factors contributing to gender inequality in specific settings.

Traditional Eastern European diet and mortality: prospective evidence from the HAPIEE study.

PURPOSE: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer mortality rates in Eastern Europe are among the highest in the world. Although diet is an important risk factor, traditional eating habits in this region have not yet been explored. This analysis assessed the relationship between traditional dietary pattern and mortality from all-causes, CVD and cancer in Eastern European cohorts. METHODS: Data from the Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial factors in Eastern Europe prospective cohort were used, including participants from Russia, Poland and the Czech Republic. Based on food frequency questionnaire data, we constructed an Eastern European diet score (EEDS) from nine food groups which can be considered as traditional in this region. The relationship between categorical (low, moderate, high) and continuous (range 0-18) EEDS and mortality was estimated with Cox-regression. RESULTS: From 18,852 eligible participants, 2234 died during follow-up. In multivariable adjusted models, participants with high adherence to the traditional Eastern European diet had significantly higher risk of all-cause (HR 1.23; 95% CI 1.08-1.42) and CVD (1.34; 1.08-1.66) deaths compared to those with low adherence. The association with cancer mortality was only significant in Poland (high vs. low EEDS: 1.41; 1.00-1.98). From the specific EEDS components, high consumption of lard was significantly positively related to all three mortality outcomes, while preserved fruit and vegetable consumption showed consistent inverse associations. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that traditional eating habits may contribute to the poor health status, particularly the high CVD mortality rates, of populations in Eastern Europe. Adequate public health nutritional interventions in this region are essential.

Social networks and cognitive function in older adults: findings from the HAPIEE study.

BACKGROUND: Social networks are associated with better cognitive health in older people, but the role of specific aspects of the social network remains unclear. This is especially the case in Central and Eastern Europe. This study examined associations between three aspects of the social network (network size of friends and relatives, contact frequency with friends and relatives, and social activity participation) with cognitive functions (verbal memory, learning ability, verbal fluency, processing speed, and global cognitive function) in older Czech, Polish, and Russian adults. METHODS: Linear regression estimated associations between baseline social networks and cognitive domains measured at both baseline and follow-up (mean duration of follow-up, 3.5 ± 0.7 years) in 6691 participants (mean age, 62.2 ± 6.0 years; 53.7% women) from the Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial factors In Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) study. RESULTS: Cross-sectional analyses, adjusted for country, age, and sex, showed positive associations of global cognitive function with social activity participation and network size of friends and relatives, but not with contact frequency in either network. Further adjustment for sociodemographic, behavioural, and health characteristics attenuated the associations with network size of relatives (P-trend = 0.074) but not with network size of friends (P-trend = 0.036) or social activities (P-trend< 0.001). In prospective analyses, network size and social activity participation were also linked with better cognition in simple models, but the associations were much stronger for social activities (P-trend< 0.001) than for network size of friends (P-trend = 0.095) and relatives (P-trend = 0.425). Adjustment for baseline cognition largely explained the prospective associations with network size of friends (P-trend = 0.787) and relatives (P-trend = 0.815), but it only slightly attenuated the association with social activities (P-trend< 0.001). The prospective effect of social activities was largely explained by sociodemographic, health behavioural, and health covariates (P-trend = 0.233). Analyses of specific cognitive domains generally replicated the cross-sectional and prospective findings for global cognitive function. CONCLUSIONS: Older Central and Eastern European adults with larger social networks and greater social activities participation had better cognitive function, but these associations were stronger at baseline than over the short-term follow-up.

Lowered cognitive function and the risk of the first events of cardiovascular diseases: findings from a cohort study in Lithuania.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this prospective cohort study was to examine whether the level of cognitive function at the baseline expressed as a cognitive function composite score and score of specific domains predict the risk of first cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in middle-aged and older populations. METHODS: Seven thousand eighty-seven participants, men and women aged 45-72 years, were assessed in the baseline survey of the Health Alcohol Psychosocial Factors in Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) study in 2006-2008 in the city of Kaunas, Lithuania. During 10 years of follow-up, the risk of first non-fatal events of CVD and death from CVD (excluding those participants with a documented history of CVD and/or ischemic heart disease (IHD) diagnosed at the baseline survey) was evaluated. Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied to examine how cognitive function predicts the first events of CVD. RESULTS: During the follow-up, there were 156 deaths from CVD (49 women and 107 men) and 464 first non-fatal CVD events (195 women and 269 men) registered. The total number of first CVD events was 620 (11.5%). After adjustment for sociodemographic factors, biological and lifestyle risk factors and illnesses, a decrease per 1 standard deviation in different cognitive function scores significantly increased the risk of a first event of CVD (immediate verbal recall score - by 17% in men and 32% in women; delayed verbal recall score - by 17% in men and 24% in women; and a composite score of cognitive function - by 15% in men and 29% in women). Kaplan-Meier survival curves for the probability of a first cardiovascular event according to the categories of a composite score of cognitive function, revealed that a lowered cognitive function predicts a higher probability of the events compared to normal cognitive function (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this follow-up study suggest that men and women with lower cognitive functions have an increased risk for a first event of CVD compared to participants with a higher level of cognitive functions.

Household availability of dietary fats and cardiovascular disease and mortality: prospective evidence from Russia.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this analysis was to examine the prospective association between household availability of lard, butter, margarine and vegetable oil with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence in a general population sample in Russia. METHODS: Data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey were used. 6618 adult individuals with no previous CVD who were recruited for the study in 1994 and followed-up in subsequent years were included in the analysis. Household availability of lard, butter, margarine and vegetable oil were assessed at baseline with questions on whether these food items were purchased by the participants' family. Self-reported information on heart attack or stroke (CVD) and death reported by another household member were used as outcome. RESULTS: Over the median follow-up of 11 years, 1787 participants died or reported incident CVD. In the multivariable adjusted survival models, household availability of lard was significantly associated with the combined outcome of CVD incidence and/or death (OR in the high vs. no availability categories: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.05-1.62). The associations with butter (1.06; 0.93-1.20), margarine (1.18; 0.94-1.47) and vegetable oil (0.92; 0.80-1.06) were not statistically significant. When self-reported CVD and mortality were examined separately, the association regarding lard was particularly strong for CVD (1.52; 1.11-2.09). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that lard, a dietary fat of animal origin traditionally used in Eastern European cooking, is of a particular concern regarding CVD risk. Replacing it with plant-based oils in cooking practices is strongly recommended.

Development and validation of two SCORE-based cardiovascular risk prediction models for Eastern Europe: a multicohort study.

AIMS: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models are used in Western European countries, but less so in Eastern European countries where rates of CVD can be two to four times higher. We recalibrated the SCORE prediction model for three Eastern European countries and evaluated the impact of adding seven behavioural and psychosocial risk factors to the model. METHODS AND RESULTS: We developed and validated models using data from the prospective HAPIEE cohort study with 14 598 participants from Russia, Poland, and the Czech Republic (derivation cohort, median follow-up 7.2 years, 338 fatal CVD cases) and Estonian Biobank data with 4632 participants (validation cohort, median follow-up 8.3 years, 91 fatal CVD cases). The first model (recalibrated SCORE) used the same risk factors as in the SCORE model. The second model (HAPIEE SCORE) added education, employment, marital status, depression, body mass index, physical inactivity, and antihypertensive use. Discrimination of the original SCORE model (C-statistic 0.78 in the derivation and 0.83 in the validation cohorts) was improved in recalibrated SCORE (0.82 and 0.85) and HAPIEE SCORE (0.84 and 0.87) models. After dichotomizing risk at the clinically meaningful threshold of 5%, and when comparing the final HAPIEE SCORE model against the original SCORE model, the net reclassification improvement was 0.07 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02-0.11] in the derivation cohort and 0.14 (95% CI 0.04-0.25) in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: Our recalibrated SCORE may be more appropriate than the conventional SCORE for some Eastern European populations. The addition of seven quick, non-invasive, and cheap predictors further improved prediction accuracy.

Education as inefficient resource against depressive symptoms in the Czech Republic: cross-sectional analysis of the HAPIEE study.

BACKGROUND: Increasing educational level of the population could be a strategy to prevent depression. We investigated whether education may offer a greater benefit for mental health to women and to individuals living in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study using data on 6964 Czech participants of the Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial factors in Eastern Europe study (on average 58 years old; 53% women). Binary logistic regression was used to examine the association of education with depressive symptoms, adjusting for several groups of covariates. Interactions were tested between education and sex as well as between education and socioeconomic advantage of the area of residence. RESULTS: Higher education was strongly associated with lower odds of depressive symptoms, independently of sociodemographic characteristics, health behavior and somatic diseases. This association was attenuated after adjusting for other markers of individual socioeconomic position (work activity, material deprivation and household items). There were no interactions between education and either sex or socioeconomic advantage of the area of residence. CONCLUSIONS: We did not find an independent association between education and depressive symptoms after controlling for other socioeconomic markers in a sample with a formative history of communistic ideologies. Women or individuals from socioeconomically disadvantaged areas do not seem to gain a larger mental health benefit from education.