Selection of HIV Envelope Strains for Standardized Assessments of Vaccine-Elicited Antibody-Dependent Cellular Cytotoxicity-Mediating Antibodies.

Antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) has been correlated with reduced risk of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection in several preclinical vaccine trials and in the RV144 clinical trial, indicating that this is a relevant antibody function to study. Given the diversity of HIV-1, the breadth of vaccine-induced antibody responses is a critical parameter to understand if a universal vaccine is to be realized. Moreover, the breadth of ADCC responses can be influenced by different vaccine strategies and regimens, including adjuvants. Therefore, to accurately evaluate ADCC and to compare vaccine regimens, it is important to understand the range of HIV Envelope (Env) susceptibility to these responses. These evaluations have been limited because of the complexity of the assay and the lack of a comprehensive panel of viruses for the assessment of these humoral responses. Here, we used 29 HIV-1 infectious molecular clones (IMCs) representing different Envelope subtypes and circulating recombinant forms to characterize susceptibility to ADCC from antibodies in plasma from infected individuals, including 13 viremic individuals, 10 controllers, and six with broadly neutralizing antibody responses. We found in our panel that ADCC susceptibility of the IMCs in our panel did not cluster by subtype, infectivity, level of CD4 downregulation, level of shedding, or neutralization sensitivity. Using partitioning around medoids (PAM) clustering to distinguish smaller groups of IMCs with similar ADCC susceptibility, we identified nested panels of four to eight IMCs that broadly represent the ADCC susceptibility of the entire 29-IMC panel. These panels, together with reagents developed to specifically accommodate circulating viruses at the geographical sites of vaccine trials, will provide a powerful tool to harmonize ADCC data generated across different studies and to detect common themes of ADCC responses elicited by various vaccines. IMPORTANCE Antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) responses were found to correlate with reduced risk of infection in the RV144 trial of the only human HIV-1 vaccine to show any efficacy to date. However, reagents to understand the breadth and magnitude of these responses across preclinical and clinical vaccine trials remain underdeveloped. In this study, we characterize HIV-1 infectious molecular clones encoding 29 distinct Envelope strains (Env-IMCs) to understand factors that impact virus susceptibility to ADCC and use statistical methods to identify smaller nested panels of four to eight Env-IMCs that accurately represent the full set. These reagents can be used as standardized reagents across studies to fully understand how ADCC may affect efficacy of future vaccine studies and how studies differ in the breadth of responses developed.

Risk Factors Associated with HIV Acquisition in Males Participating in HIV Vaccine Efficacy Trials in South Africa.

In South Africa, HIV acquisition risk has been studied less in people assigned male at birth. We studied the associations between risk behaviors, clinical features and HIV incidence amongst males in two South African HIV preventive vaccine efficacy trials. We used Cox proportional hazards models to test for associations between demographics, sexual behaviors, clinical variables and HIV acquisition among males followed in the HVTN 503 (n = 219) and HVTN 702 (n = 1611) trials. Most males reported no male sexual partners (99.09% in HVTN 503) or identified as heterosexual (88.08% in HVTN 702). Annual HIV incidence was 1.39% in HVTN 503 (95% CI 0.76-2.32%) and 1.33% in HVTN 702 (95% CI 0.80-2.07%). Increased HIV acquisition was significantly associated with anal sex (HR 6.32, 95% CI 3.44-11.62), transactional sex (HR 3.42, 95% CI 1.80-6.50), and non-heterosexual identity (HR 16.23, 95%CI 8.13-32.41) in univariate analyses and non-heterosexual identity (HR 14.99, 95% CI 4.99-45.04; p < 0.01) in multivariate analysis. It is appropriate that prevention efforts in South Africa, although focused on the severe epidemic in young women, also encompass key male populations, including men who have sex with men, but also men who engage in anal or transactional sex.

Prediction of VRC01 neutralization sensitivity by HIV-1 gp160 sequence features.

The broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 is being evaluated for its efficacy to prevent HIV-1 infection in the Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials. A secondary objective of AMP utilizes sieve analysis to investigate how VRC01 prevention efficacy (PE) varies with HIV-1 envelope (Env) amino acid (AA) sequence features. An exhaustive analysis that tests how PE depends on every AA feature with sufficient variation would have low statistical power. To design an adequately powered primary sieve analysis for AMP, we modeled VRC01 neutralization as a function of Env AA sequence features of 611 HIV-1 gp160 pseudoviruses from the CATNAP database, with objectives: (1) to develop models that best predict the neutralization readouts; and (2) to rank AA features by their predictive importance with classification and regression methods. The dataset was split in half, and machine learning algorithms were applied to each half, each analyzed separately using cross-validation and hold-out validation. We selected Super Learner, a nonparametric ensemble-based cross-validated learning method, for advancement to the primary sieve analysis. This method predicted the dichotomous resistance outcome of whether the IC50 neutralization titer of VRC01 for a given Env pseudovirus is right-censored (indicating resistance) with an average validated AUC of 0.868 across the two hold-out datasets. Quantitative log IC50 was predicted with an average validated R2 of 0.355. Features predicting neutralization sensitivity or resistance included 26 surface-accessible residues in the VRC01 and CD4 binding footprints, the length of gp120, the length of Env, the number of cysteines in gp120, the number of cysteines in Env, and 4 potential N-linked glycosylation sites; the top features will be advanced to the primary sieve analysis. This modeling framework may also inform the study of VRC01 in the treatment of HIV-infected persons.

HIV/AIDS Vaccine Candidates Based on Replication-Competent Recombinant Poxvirus NYVAC-C-KC Expressing Trimeric gp140 and Gag-Derived Virus-Like Particles or Lacking the Viral Molecule B19 That Inhibits Type I Interferon Activate Relevant HIV-1-Specific B and T Cell Immune Functions in Nonhuman Primates.

The nonreplicating attenuated poxvirus vector NYVAC expressing clade C(CN54) HIV-1 Env(gp120) and Gag-Pol-Nef antigens (NYVAC-C) showed limited immunogenicity in phase I clinical trials. To enhance the capacity of the NYVAC vector to trigger broad humoral responses and a more balanced activation of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, here we compared the HIV-1-specific immunogenicity elicited in nonhuman primates immunized with two replicating NYVAC vectors that have been modified by the insertion of the K1L and C7L vaccinia virus host range genes and express the clade C(ZM96) trimeric HIV-1 gp140 protein or a Gag(ZM96)-Pol-Nef(CN54) polyprotein as Gag-derived virus-like particles (termed NYVAC-C-KC). Additionally, one NYVAC-C-KC vector was generated by deleting the viral gene B19R, an inhibitor of the type I interferon response (NYVAC-C-KC-ΔB19R). An immunization protocol mimicking that of the RV144 phase III clinical trial was used. Two groups of macaques received two doses of the corresponding NYVAC-C-KC vectors (weeks 0 and 4) and booster doses with NYVAC-C-KC vectors plus the clade C HIV-1 gp120 protein (weeks 12 and 24). The two replicating NYVAC-C-KC vectors induced enhanced and similar HIV-1-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses, similar levels of binding IgG antibodies, low levels of IgA antibodies, and high levels of antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity responses and HIV-1-neutralizing antibodies. Small differences within the NYVAC-C-KC-ΔB19R group were seen in the magnitude of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, the induction of some cytokines, and the neutralization of some HIV-1 isolates. Thus, replication-competent NYVAC-C-KC vectors acquired relevant immunological properties as vaccine candidates against HIV/AIDS, and the viral B19 molecule exerts some control of immune functions.IMPORTANCE It is of special importance to find a safe and effective HIV/AIDS vaccine that can induce strong and broad T cell and humoral immune responses correlating with HIV-1 protection. Here we developed novel replicating poxvirus NYVAC-based HIV/AIDS vaccine candidates expressing clade C HIV-1 antigens, with one of them lacking the vaccinia virus B19 protein, an inhibitor of the type I interferon response. Immunization of nonhuman primates with these novel NYVAC-C-KC vectors and the protein component gp120 elicited high levels of T cell and humoral immune responses, with the vector containing a deletion in B19R inducing a trend toward a higher magnitude of CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses and neutralization of some HIV-1 strains. These poxvirus vectors could be considered HIV/AIDS vaccine candidates based on their activation of potential immune correlates of protection.

Diversity of Antiviral IgG Effector Activities Observed in HIV-Infected and Vaccinated Subjects.

Diverse Ab effector functions mediated by the Fc domain have been commonly associated with reduced risk of infection in a growing number of nonhuman primate and human clinical studies. This study evaluated the anti-HIV Ab effector activities in polyclonal serum samples from HIV-infected donors, VAX004 vaccine recipients, and healthy HIV-negative subjects using a variety of primary and cell line-based assays, including Ab-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC), Ab-dependent cell-mediated viral inhibition, and Ab-dependent cellular phagocytosis. Additional assay characterization was performed with a panel of Fc-engineered variants of mAb b12. The goal of this study was to characterize different effector functions in the study samples and identify assays that might most comprehensively and dependably capture Fc-mediated Ab functions mediated by different effector cell types and against different viral targets. Deployment of such assays may facilitate assessment of functionally unique humoral responses and contribute to identification of correlates of protection with potential mechanistic significance in future HIV vaccine studies. Multivariate and correlative comparisons identified a set of Ab-dependent cell-mediated viral inhibition and phagocytosis assays that captured different Ab activities and were distinct from a group of ADCC assays that showed a more similar response profile across polyclonal serum samples. The activities of a panel of b12 monoclonal Fc variants further identified distinctions among the ADCC assays. These results reveal the natural diversity of Fc-mediated Ab effector responses among vaccine recipients in the VAX004 trial and in HIV-infected subjects, and they point to the potential importance of polyfunctional Ab responses.

Humoral and intestinal immunity induced by new schedules of bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine and one or two doses of inactivated poliovirus vaccine in Latin American infants: an open-label randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Replacement of the trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (tOPV) with bivalent types 1 and 3 oral poliovirus vaccine (bOPV) and global introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) are major steps in the polio endgame strategy. In this study, we assessed humoral and intestinal immunity in Latin American infants after three doses of bOPV combined with zero, one, or two doses of IPV. METHODS: This open-label randomised controlled multicentre trial was part of a larger study. 6-week-old full-term infants due for their first polio vaccinations, who were healthy on physical examination, with no obvious medical conditions and no known chronic medical disorders, were enrolled from four investigational sites in Colombia, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, and Panama. The infants were randomly assigned by permuted block randomisation (through the use of a computer-generated list, block size 36) to nine groups, of which five will be discussed in this report. These five groups were randomly assigned 1:1:1:1 to four permutations of schedule: groups 1 and 2 (control groups) received bOPV at 6, 10, and 14 weeks; group 3 (also a control group, which did not count as a permutation) received tOPV at 6, 10, and 14 weeks; group 4 received bOPV plus one dose of IPV at 14 weeks; and group 5 received bOPV plus two doses of IPV at 14 and 36 weeks. Infants in all groups were challenged with monovalent type 2 vaccine (mOPV2) at 18 weeks (groups 1, 3, and 4) or 40 weeks (groups 2 and 5). The primary objective was to assess the superiority of bOPV-IPV schedules over bOPV alone, as assessed by the primary endpoints of humoral immunity (neutralising antibodies-ie, seroconversion) to all three serotypes and intestinal immunity (faecal viral shedding post-challenge) to serotype 2, analysed in the per-protocol population. Serious and medically important adverse events were monitored for up to 6 months after the study vaccination. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01831050, and has been completed. FINDINGS: Between May 20, 2013, and Aug 15, 2013, 940 eligible infants were enrolled and randomly assigned to the five treatment groups (210 to group 1, 210 to group 2, 100 to group 3, 210 to group 4, and 210 to group 5). One infant in group 1 was not vaccinated because their parents withdrew consent after enrolment and randomisation, so 939 infants actually received the vaccinations. Three doses of bOPV or tOPV elicited type 1 and 3 seroconversion rates of at least 97·7%. Type 2 seroconversion occurred in 19 of 198 infants (9·6%, 95% CI 6·2-14·5) in the bOPV-only groups, 86 of 88 (97·7%, 92·1-99·4) in the tOPV-only group (p<0·0001 vs bOPV-only), and 156 of 194 (80·4%, 74·3-85·4) infants in the bOPV-one dose of IPV group (p<0·0001 vs bOPV-only). A further 20 of 193 (10%) infants in the latter group seroconverted 1 week after mOPV2 challenge, resulting in around 98% of infants being seropositive against type 2. After a bOPV-two IPV schedule, all 193 infants (100%, 98·0-100; p<0·0001 vs bOPV-only) seroconverted to type 2. IPV induced small but significant decreases in a composite serotype 2 viral shedding index after mOPV2 challenge. 21 serious adverse events were reported in 20 patients during the study, including two that were judged to be possibly related to the vaccines. Most of the serious adverse events (18 [86%] of 21) and 24 (80%) of the 30 important medical events reported were infections and infestations. No deaths occurred during the study. INTERPRETATION: bOPV provided humoral protection similar to tOPV against polio serotypes 1 and 3. After one or two IPV doses in addition to bOPV, 80% and 100% of infants seroconverted, respectively, and the vaccination induced a degree of intestinal immunity against type 2 poliovirus. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Microarray expression analysis and identification of serum biomarkers for Niemann-Pick disease, type C1.

Niemann-Pick disease type C (NPC) is a lysosomal storage disorder characterized by liver disease and progressive neurodegeneration. Deficiency of either NPC1 or NPC2 leads to the accumulation of cholesterol and glycosphingolipids in late endosomes and early lysosomes. In order to identify pathological mechanisms underlying NPC and uncover potential biomarkers, we characterized liver gene expression changes in an Npc1 mouse model at six ages spanning the pathological progression of the disease. We identified altered gene expression at all ages, including changes in asymptomatic, 1-week-old mice. Biological pathways showing early altered gene expression included: lipid metabolism, cytochrome P450 enzymes involved in arachidonic acid and drug metabolism, inflammation and immune responses, mitogen-activated protein kinase and G-protein signaling, cell cycle regulation, cell adhesion and cytoskeleton remodeling. In contrast, apoptosis and oxidative stress appeared to be late pathological processes. To identify potential biomarkers that could facilitate monitoring of disease progression, we focused on a subset of 103 differentially expressed genes that encode secreted proteins. Further analysis identified two secreted proteins with increased serum levels in NPC1 patients: galectin-3 (LGALS3), a pro-inflammatory molecule, and cathepsin D (CTSD), a lysosomal aspartic protease. Elevated serum levels of both proteins correlated with neurological disease severity and appeared to be specific for NPC1. Expression of Lgals3 and Ctsd was normalized following treatment with 2-hydroxypropyl-ß-cyclodextrin, a therapy that reduces pathological findings and significantly increases Npc1(-/-) survival. Both LGALS3 and CTSD have the potential to aid in diagnosis and serve as biomarkers to monitor efficacy in therapeutic trials.

Predisposition to cancer caused by genetic and functional defects of mammalian Atad5.

ATAD5, the human ortholog of yeast Elg1, plays a role in PCNA deubiquitination. Since PCNA modification is important to regulate DNA damage bypass, ATAD5 may be important for suppression of genomic instability in mammals in vivo. To test this hypothesis, we generated heterozygous (Atad5(+/m)) mice that were haploinsuffficient for Atad5. Atad5(+/m) mice displayed high levels of genomic instability in vivo, and Atad5(+/m) mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) exhibited molecular defects in PCNA deubiquitination in response to DNA damage, as well as DNA damage hypersensitivity and high levels of genomic instability, apoptosis, and aneuploidy. Importantly, 90% of haploinsufficient Atad5(+/m) mice developed tumors, including sarcomas, carcinomas, and adenocarcinomas, between 11 and 20 months of age. High levels of genomic alterations were evident in tumors that arose in the Atad5(+/m) mice. Consistent with a role for Atad5 in suppressing tumorigenesis, we also identified somatic mutations of ATAD5 in 4.6% of sporadic human endometrial tumors, including two nonsense mutations that resulted in loss of proper ATAD5 function. Taken together, our findings indicate that loss-of-function mutations in mammalian Atad5 are sufficient to cause genomic instability and tumorigenesis.

Establishing RTS,S/AS01 as a benchmark for comparison to next-generation malaria vaccines in a mouse model.

New strategies are needed to reduce the incidence of malaria, and promising approaches include vaccines targeting the circumsporozoite protein (CSP). To improve upon the malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01, it is essential to standardize preclinical assays to measure the potency of next-generation vaccines against this benchmark. We focus on RTS,S/AS01-induced antibody responses and functional activity in conjunction with robust statistical analyses. Transgenic Plasmodium berghei sporozoites containing full-length P. falciparum CSP (tgPb-PfCSP) allow two assessments of efficacy: quantitative reduction in liver infection following intravenous challenge, and sterile protection from mosquito bite challenge. Two or three doses of RTS,S/AS01 were given intramuscularly at 3-week intervals, with challenge 2-weeks after the last vaccination. Minimal inter- and intra-assay variability indicates the reproducibility of the methods. Importantly, the range of this model is suitable for screening more potent vaccines. Levels of induced anti-CSP antibody 2A10 equivalency were also associated with activity: 105 µg/mL (95% CI: 68.8, 141) reduced liver infection by 50%, whereas 285 µg/mL (95% CI: 166, 404) is required for 50% sterile protection from mosquito bite challenge. Additionally, the liver burden model was able to differentiate between protected and non-protected human plasma samples from a controlled human malaria infection study, supporting these models' relevance and predictive capability. Comparison in animal models of CSP-based vaccine candidates to RTS,S/AS01 is now possible under well controlled conditions. Assessment of the quality of induced antibodies, likely a determinant of durability of protection in humans, should be possible using these methods.

Antibody Correlates of Protection From Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease in a Vaccine Efficacy Trial.

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) can cause serious lung infections in young children and there is currently no available vaccine. Methods: We used complementary statistical frameworks to analyze 4 RSV serology measurements in mothers and their infants in South Africa who participated in a phase 3 maternal immunization trial of an RSV F protein nanoparticle vaccine as correlates of risk and of protection against different RSV disease endpoints. Results: We found evidence to support each antibody measurement-encompassing RSV-neutralizing antibodies and F surface glycoprotein-binding antibodies-as an inverse correlate of risk of RSV-associated acute lower respiratory tract infection with severe hypoxia in at least 1 framework, with vaccine-induced fold-rise from the maternal enrollment to day 14 samples of anti-F immunoglobulin G (IgG) binding antibodies having the most consistent evidence. This evidence includes a significant association of fold-rise anti-F IgG with vaccine efficacy (VE); achieving a baseline covariate-adjusted VE of 75% requires a vaccine-induced maternal anti-F IgG fold-rise of around 16. Neither multivariable logistic regression nor superlearning analyses showed benefit to including multiple time points or assays in the same model, suggesting a parsimonious correlate. Post hoc exploratory analyses supported adherence of vaccine-induced maternal anti-F IgG fold-rise to the Prentice criteria for a valid surrogate endpoint. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the vaccine induced protective anti-F antibody responses. If this finding is confirmed, VE could potentially be augmented by increasing these responses.

A first-in-human germline-targeting HIV nanoparticle vaccine induced broad and publicly targeted helper T cell responses.

The engineered outer domain germline targeting version 8 (eOD-GT8) 60-mer nanoparticle was designed to prime VRC01-class HIV-specific B cells that would need to be matured, through additional heterologous immunizations, into B cells that are able to produce broadly neutralizing antibodies. CD4 T cell help will be critical for the development of such high-affinity neutralizing antibody responses. Thus, we assessed the induction and epitope specificities of the vaccine-specific T cells from the IAVI G001 phase 1 clinical trial that tested immunization with eOD-GT8 60-mer adjuvanted with AS01B. Robust polyfunctional CD4 T cells specific for eOD-GT8 and the lumazine synthase (LumSyn) component of eOD-GT8 60-mer were induced after two vaccinations with either the 20- or 100-microgram dose. Antigen-specific CD4 T helper responses to eOD-GT8 and LumSyn were observed in 84 and 93% of vaccine recipients, respectively. CD4 helper T cell epitope "hotspots" preferentially targeted across participants were identified within both the eOD-GT8 and LumSyn proteins. CD4 T cell responses specific to one of these three LumSyn epitope hotspots were observed in 85% of vaccine recipients. Last, we found that induction of vaccine-specific peripheral CD4 T cells correlated with expansion of eOD-GT8-specific memory B cells. Our findings demonstrate strong human CD4 T cell responses to an HIV vaccine candidate priming immunogen and identify immunodominant CD4 T cell epitopes that might improve human immune responses either to heterologous boost immunogens after this prime vaccination or to other human vaccine immunogens.

Immune correlates analysis of the PREVENT-19 COVID-19 vaccine efficacy clinical trial.

In the PREVENT-19 phase 3 trial of the NVX-CoV2373 vaccine (NCT04611802), anti-spike binding IgG concentration (spike IgG), anti-RBD binding IgG concentration (RBD IgG), and pseudovirus 50% neutralizing antibody titer (nAb ID50) measured two weeks post-dose two are assessed as correlates of risk and as correlates of protection against COVID-19. Analyses are conducted in the U.S. cohort of baseline SARS-CoV-2 negative per-protocol participants using a case-cohort design that measures the markers from all 12 vaccine recipient breakthrough COVID-19 cases starting 7 days post antibody measurement and from 639 vaccine recipient non-cases. All markers are inversely associated with COVID-19 risk and directly associated with vaccine efficacy. In vaccine recipients with nAb ID50 titers of 50, 100, and 7230 international units (IU50)/ml, vaccine efficacy estimates are 75.7% (49.8%, 93.2%), 81.7% (66.3%, 93.2%), and 96.8% (88.3%, 99.3%). The results support potential cross-vaccine platform applications of these markers for guiding decisions about vaccine approval and use.

Immune correlates analysis of a phase 3 trial of the AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) vaccine.

In the phase 3 trial of the AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) vaccine conducted in the U.S., Chile, and Peru, anti-spike binding IgG concentration (spike IgG) and pseudovirus 50% neutralizing antibody titer (nAb ID50) measured four weeks after two doses were assessed as correlates of risk and protection against PCR-confirmed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19). These analyses of SARS-CoV-2 negative participants were based on case-cohort sampling of vaccine recipients (33 COVID-19 cases by 4 months post dose two, 463 non-cases). The adjusted hazard ratio of COVID-19 was 0.32 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.76) per 10-fold increase in spike IgG concentration and 0.28 (0.10, 0.77) per 10-fold increase in nAb ID50 titer. At nAb ID50 below the limit of detection (< 2.612 IU50/ml), 10, 100, and 270 IU50/ml, vaccine efficacy was -5.8% (-651%, 75.6%), 64.9% (56.4%, 86.9%), 90.0% (55.8%, 97.6%) and 94.2% (69.4%, 99.1%). These findings provide further evidence towards defining an immune marker correlate of protection to help guide regulatory/approval decisions for COVID-19 vaccines.

Comparing antibody assays as correlates of protection against COVID-19 in the COVE mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy trial.

The best assay or marker to define mRNA-1273 vaccine-induced antibodies as a correlate of protection (CoP) is unclear. In the COVE trial, participants received two doses of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine or placebo. We previously assessed IgG binding antibodies to the spike protein (spike IgG) or receptor binding domain (RBD IgG) and pseudovirus neutralizing antibody 50 or 80% inhibitory dilution titer measured on day 29 or day 57, as correlates of risk (CoRs) and CoPs against symptomatic COVID-19 over 4 months after dose. Here, we assessed a new marker, live virus 50% microneutralization titer (LV-MN50), and compared and combined markers in multivariable analyses. LV-MN50 was an inverse CoR, with a hazard ratio of 0.39 (95% confidence interval, 0.19 to 0.83) at day 29 and 0.51 (95% confidence interval, 0.25 to 1.04) at day 57 per 10-fold increase. In multivariable analyses, pseudovirus neutralization titers and anti-spike binding antibodies performed best as CoRs; combining antibody markers did not improve correlates. Pseudovirus neutralization titer was the strongest independent correlate in a multivariable model. Overall, these results supported pseudovirus neutralizing and binding antibody assays as CoRs and CoPs, with the live virus assay as a weaker correlate in this sample set. Day 29 markers performed as well as day 57 markers as CoPs, which could accelerate immunogenicity and immunobridging studies.

Evaluation of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis risk in combination with an interferon gamma release assay: A diagnostic test accuracy study.

Background: We evaluated the diagnostic and prognostic performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis (TB) risk (RISK11) and QuantiFERON-TB Gold-plus (QFTPlus) as combination biomarkers of TB risk. Methods: Healthy South Africans who were HIV-negative aged 18-60 years with baseline RISK11 and QFTPlus results were evaluated in a prospective cohort study conducted between Sept 20, 2016 and Dec 20, 2019. Prevalence and incidence-rate ratios were used to evaluate risk of TB. Positive (LR+) and negative (LR-) likelihood ratios were used to compare individual tests versus Both-Positive (RISK11+/QFTPlus+) and Either-Positive (RISK11+ or QFTPlus+) combinations. Findings: Among 2912 participants, prevalent TB in RISK11+/QFTPlus+ participants was 13·3-fold (95% CI 4·2-42·7) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus-; 2·4-fold (95% CI 1·2-4·8) higher than RISK11+/QFTPlus-; and 4·5-fold (95% CI 2·5-8·0) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus+ participants. Risk of incident TB in RISK11+/QFTPlus+ participants was 8·3-fold (95% CI 2·5-27·0) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus-; 2·5-fold (95% CI 1·0-6·6) higher than RISK11+/QFTPlus-; and 2·1-fold (95% CI 1·2-3·4) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus+ participants, respectively. Compared to QFTPlus, the Both-Positive test combination increased diagnostic LR+ from 1·3 (95% CI 1·2-1·5) to 4·7 (95% CI 3·2-7·0), and prognostic LR+ from 1·4 (95% CI 1·2-1·5) to 2·8 (95% CI 1·5-5·1), but did not improve upon RISK11 alone. Compared with RISK11, the Either-Positive test combination decreased diagnostic LR- from 0·7 (95% CI 0·6-0·9) to 0·3 (95% CI 0·2-0·6), and prognostic LR- from 0·9 (95% CI 0·8-1·0) to 0·3 (0·1-0·7), but did not improve upon QFTPlus alone. Interpretation: Combining two tests such as RISK11 and QFTPlus, with discordant individual performance characteristics does not improve overall discriminatory performance, relative to the individual tests. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, South African Medical Research Council.

The effect of host factors on discriminatory performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis risk.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to understand host factors that affect discriminatory performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis risk (RISK11). METHODS: HIV-negative adults aged 18-60 years were evaluated in a prospective study of RISK11 and surveilled for tuberculosis through 15 months. Generalised linear models and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) regression were used to estimate effect of host factors on RISK11 score (%marginal effect) and on discriminatory performance for tuberculosis disease (area under the curve, AUC), respectively. FINDINGS: Among 2923 participants including 74 prevalent and 56 incident tuberculosis cases, percentage marginal effects on RISK11 score were increased among those with prevalent tuberculosis (+18·90%, 95%CI 12·66-25·13), night sweats (+14·65%, 95%CI 5·39-23·91), incident tuberculosis (+7·29%, 95%CI 1·46-13·11), flu-like symptoms (+5·13%, 95%CI 1·58-8·68), and smoking history (+2·41%, 95%CI 0·89-3·93) than those without; and reduced in males (-6·68%, 95%CI -8·31- -5·04) and with every unit increase in BMI (-0·13%, 95%CI -0·25- -0·01). Adjustment for host factors affecting controls did not change RISK11 discriminatory performance. Cough was associated with 72·55% higher RISK11 score in prevalent tuberculosis cases. Stratification by cough improved diagnostic performance from AUC = 0·74 (95%CI 0·67-0·82) overall, to 0·97 (95%CI 0·90-1·00, p < 0·001) in cough-positive participants. Combining host factors with RISK11 improved prognostic performance, compared to RISK11 alone, (AUC = 0·76, 95%CI 0·69-0·83 versus 0·56, 95%CI 0·46-0·68, p < 0·001) over a 15-month predictive horizon. INTERPRETATION: Several host factors affected RISK11 score, but only adjustment for cough affected diagnostic performance. Combining host factors with RISK11 should be considered to improve prognostic performance. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, South African Medical Research Council.

Immune Correlates Analysis of a Single Ad26.COV2.S Dose in the ENSEMBLE COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Clinical Trial.

Anti-spike IgG binding antibody, anti-receptor binding domain IgG antibody, and pseudovirus neutralizing antibody measurements four weeks post-vaccination were assessed as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 outcomes through 83 days post-vaccination and as correlates of protection following a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S COVID-19 vaccine in the placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international, randomized efficacy trial. Each marker had evidence as a correlate of risk and of protection, with strongest evidence for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titer. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; p=0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43, 72%) at nonquantifiable ID50 (< 2.7 IU50/ml) and rose to 89% (78, 96%) at ID50 = 96.3 IU50/ml. Comparison of the vaccine efficacy by ID50 titer curves for ENSEMBLE-US, the COVE trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine, and the COV002-UK trial of the AZD1222 vaccine supported consistency of the ID50 titer correlate of protection across trials and vaccine types.

Immune correlates analysis of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine efficacy clinical trial.

In the coronavirus efficacy (COVE) phase 3 clinical trial, vaccine recipients were assessed for neutralizing and binding antibodies as correlates of risk for COVID-19 disease and as correlates of protection. These immune markers were measured at the time of second vaccination and 4 weeks later, with values reported in standardized World Health Organization international units. All markers were inversely associated with COVID-19 risk and directly associated with vaccine efficacy. Vaccine recipients with postvaccination 50% neutralization titers 10, 100, and 1000 had estimated vaccine efficacies of 78% (95% confidence interval, 54 to 89%), 91% (87 to 94%), and 96% (94 to 98%), respectively. These results help define immune marker correlates of protection and may guide approval decisions for messenger RNA (mRNA) COVID-19 vaccines and other COVID-19 vaccines.

Immune correlates analysis of the ENSEMBLE single Ad26.COV2.S dose vaccine efficacy clinical trial.

Measuring immune correlates of disease acquisition and protection in the context of a clinical trial is a prerequisite for improved vaccine design. We analysed binding and neutralizing antibody measurements 4 weeks post vaccination as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 through 83 d post vaccination in the phase 3, double-blind placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international randomized efficacy trial of a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S. We also evaluated correlates of protection in the trial cohort. Of the three antibody immune markers we measured, we found most support for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titre as a correlate of risk and of protection. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; P = 0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43%, 72%) at non-quantifiable ID50 (<2.7 IU50 ml-1) and increased to 89% (78%, 96%) at ID50 = 96.3 IU50 ml-1. Comparison of the vaccine efficacy by ID50 titre curves for ENSEMBLE-US, the COVE trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine and the COV002-UK trial of the AZD1222 vaccine supported the ID50 titre as a correlate of protection across trials and vaccine types.

Strain-dependent genomic factors affect allergen-induced airway hyperresponsiveness in mice.

Asthma is etiologically and clinically heterogeneous, making the genomic basis of asthma difficult to identify. We exploited the strain-dependence of a murine model of allergic airway disease to identify different genomic responses in the lung. BALB/cJ and C57BL/6J mice were sensitized with the immunodominant allergen from the Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus species of house dust mite (Der p 1), without exogenous adjuvant, and the mice then underwent a single challenge with Der p 1. Allergic inflammation, serum antibody titers, mucous metaplasia, and airway hyperresponsiveness were evaluated 72 hours after airway challenge. Whole-lung gene expression analyses were conducted to identify genomic responses to allergen challenge. Der p 1-challenged BALB/cJ mice produced all the key features of allergic airway disease. In comparison, C57BL/6J mice produced exaggerated Th2-biased responses and inflammation, but exhibited an unexpected decrease in airway hyperresponsiveness compared with control mice. Lung gene expression analysis revealed genes that were shared by both strains and a set of down-regulated genes unique to C57BL/6J mice, including several G-protein-coupled receptors involved in airway smooth muscle contraction, most notably the M2 muscarinic receptor, which we show is expressed in airway smooth muscle and was decreased at the protein level after challenge with Der p 1. Murine strain-dependent genomic responses in the lung offer insights into the different biological pathways that develop after allergen challenge. This study of two different murine strains demonstrates that inflammation and airway hyperresponsiveness can be decoupled, and suggests that the down-modulation of expression of G-protein-coupled receptors involved in regulating airway smooth muscle contraction may contribute to this dissociation.