SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection Cases in a Household-Based Prospective Cohort in Rio de Janeiro.

This was a household-based prospective cohort study conducted in Rio de Janeiro, in which people with laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and their household contacts were followed from April 2020 through June 2022. Ninety-eight reinfections were identified, with 71 (72.5%) confirmed by genomic analyses and lineage definition in both infections. During the pre-Omicron period, 1 dose of any COVID-19 vaccine was associated with a reduced risk of reinfection, but during the Omicron period not even booster vaccines had this effect. Most reinfections were asymptomatic or milder in comparison with primary infections, a justification for continuing active surveillance to detect infections in vaccinated individuals. Our findings demonstrated that vaccination may not prevent infection or reinfection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2). Therefore we highlight the need to continuously update the antigenic target of SARS CoV-2 vaccines and administer booster doses to the population regularly, a strategy well established in the development of vaccines for influenza immunization programs.

An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics.

A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was generally lowest for high incidence seasons, those for which forecasts would be most valuable. A comparison of modeling approaches revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts. Leveraging these insights, data, and the forecasting framework will be critical to improve forecast skill and the application of forecasts in real time for epidemic preparedness and response. Moreover, key components of this project-integration with public health needs, a common forecasting framework, shared and standardized data, and open participation-can help advance infectious disease forecasting beyond dengue.

Effects of antiretroviral treatment and nadir CD4 count in progression to cardiovascular events and related comorbidities in a HIV Brazilian cohort: a multi-stage approach.

The use of highly active antiretroviral therapy has resulted in changes of comorbidity profile in people living with HIV (PLHIV), increasing non-AIDS-related events. The occurrence of cardiovascular events is greater in PLHIV, but the mechanism responsible for it is still controversial. This article aimed to investigate factors associated with the progression to cardiovascular events in PLHIV using HAART. A 15-years cohort study with 1135 PLHIV was conducted in Rio de Janeiro-Brazil. Clinical progression was stratified in five states: No comorbidities (s1), arterial hypertension (s2), lipid abnormalities (s3), hypertension and lipid abnormalities (s4) and major cardiovascular events (stroke, coronary artery disease, thrombosis or death) (s5). Semi-Markov models evaluated the effects of cardiovascular traditional factors, treatment and clinical covariates on transitions between these states. Hazard Ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were provided. In addition to traditional factors (age, sex, educational level and skin color), the development of one comorbidity (lipid abnormalities or hypertension) increased in patients with low nadir CD4 (<50 cells/mm3), (HR = 1.59, CI 1.11-2.28 and 1.36, CI 1.11-1.66, respectively). The risk to experience a second comorbidity (s3→s4) increased 75% with low nadir CD4. Age was the only factor that increased the risk of major cardiovascular events once having lipid abnormalities with or without hypertension (s3,s4→s5). The prolonged use of certain antiretroviral drugs (abacavir, didanosine, ritonavir, lopinavir, amprenavir and fosamprenavir) increased the risk of direct transition (s1→s5) to major cardiovascular events (HR = 5.29, CI 1.16-24.05). This analysis suggests that prolonged use of certain antiretroviral drugs led directly to major cardiovascular events, while low nadir CD4 only affected the occurrence of lipid abnormalities and hypertension. Management strategies, including rational use of complex exams (such as, computed-tomography angiography), statins and antihypertensives, should be developed based on the distinct roles of antiretroviral use and of HIV infection itself on the progression to cardiovascular events.

Early Evidence for Zika Virus Circulation among Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

During 2014-2016, we conducted mosquito-based Zika virus surveillance in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Results suggest that Zika virus was probably introduced into the area during May-November 2013 via multiple in-country sources. Furthermore, our results strengthen the hypothesis that Zika virus in the Americas originated in Brazil during October 2012-May 2013.

Inequalities in socioeconomic status and race and the odds of undergoing a mammogram in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Access to mammograms, in common with other diagnostic procedures, is strongly conditioned by socioeconomic disparities. Which aspects of inequality affect the odds of undergoing a mammogram, and whether they are the same in different localities, are relevant issues related to the success of health policies. METHODS: This study analyzed data from the 2008 PNAD - Brazilian National Household Sample Survey (11.607 million women 40 years of age or older), on having had at least one mammogram over life for women 40 years of age or older in each of Brazil's nine Metropolitan Regions (MR), according to socioeconomic position. The effects of income, schooling, health insurance and race in the different regions were investigated using multivariate logistical regression for each region individually, and for all MRs combined. The age-adjusted odds of a woman having had a mammogram according to race and stratified by two income strata (and two schooling strata) were also analyzed. RESULTS: Having a higher income increases four to seven times a woman's odds of having had at least one mammogram in all MRs except Curitiba. For schooling, the gradient, though less steep, is favorable to women with more years of study. Having health insurance increases two to three times the odds in all MRs. Multivariate analysis did not show differences due to race (except for the Fortaleza MR), but the stratified analysis by income and schooling shows effects of race in most MRs, with greater differences for women with higher socioeconomic status. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms that income and schooling, as well as having health insurance, are still important determinants of inequality in health service use in Brazil. Additionally, race also contributes to the odds of having had a mammogram. The point is not to isolate the effect of each factor, but to evaluate how their interrelations may exacerbate differences, generating patterns of cumulative adversity, a theme that is still little explored in Brazil. This is much more important when we consider that race has only recently started be included in analyses of health outcomes in Brazil.

Seven years of use of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapies: a nationwide population-based assessment of their effectiveness in real clinical settings.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) and cardiac resynchronization therapy-defibrillator (CRT-D) therapy has already been established in clinical trials but their effectiveness in several clinical settings remains undetermined. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of ICD and CRT-D therapies within the Brazilian National Health System (SUS). METHODS: All patients who underwent ICD or CRT-D implantation within the SUS from 2001 to 2007 were included in the study. We compared estimated Kaplan-Meier survival curves using the Peto's test. Prognostic factors were selected using Cox's models. RESULTS: There were included 3,295 patients in the ICD group and 681 patients in the CRT-D group. Cardiac causes accounted for 79% of all deaths in both groups and Chagas' heart disease accounted for 31% of these deaths. In the CRT-D group, survival significantly decreased around the fourth year of follow-up, with a decrease from 59.5% to 38.3% in 5.5 months. Transvenous implantation technique was used in 62% of CRT-D patients. In-hospital case-fatality rates were higher in those undergoing surgical implantation (5.3%) than those undergoing transvenous implantation (1.6%) (p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The results show that short-term, medium-term and long-term effectiveness of ICD therapy appears to be similar to that evidenced in clinical trials. In the CRT-D group, in-hospital case-fatality and 30-day case-fatality were higher than those reported in other studies. Surgical epicardial implantation technique was performed in this group at a higher frequency than that reported in the literature and was associated with poorer short-term prognosis.

Distance to parks and non-residential destinations influences physical activity of older people, but crime doesn't: a cross-sectional study in a southern European city.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity (PA) has numerous health benefits, but older adults live mostly sedentary lifestyles. The physical and social neighborhood environment may encourage/dissuade PA. In particular, neighborhood crime may lead to feeling unsafe and affect older adults' willingness to be physically active. Yet, research on this topic is still inconclusive. Older population, probably the age group most influenced by the neighborhood environment, has been understudied, especially in Southern Europe. In this study, we aimed to analyze the association between leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) in older adults and objective crime, alongside other neighborhood characteristics. METHODS: We obtained data from a population-based cohort from Porto (2005-2008) to assess LTPA. Only adults aged 65 years or more were included (n = 532). A Geographic Information System was used to measure neighborhood characteristics. Neighborhood crime was expressed as crime rates by category (incivilities, criminal offenses with and without violence and traffic crime). Neighborhood characteristics such as socioeconomic deprivation, land gradient, street density, transportation network, distance to parks, non-residential destinations and sport spaces were also included. Generalized Additive Models were fitted to estimate the association between neighborhood characteristics and the participation (being active vs. inactive) and frequency (min/day) of LTPA. RESULTS: Forty-six percent of the men and 61 % of the women did not engage in any kind of LTPA. Among the active participants, men spent on average 50.5 (35.2 Standard Deviation, SD) min/day in LTPA, whereas the average among women was 36.9 (35.1 SD) min/day (p < 0.001). Neighborhood crime was unrelated to the participation in, or frequency of, LTPA. On the other hand, two neighborhood characteristics - distance to the nearest park (ß = -0.0262, p = 0.029) and to the nearest non-residential destination (ß = -0.0735, p = 0.019) - were associated with time spent on LTPA, but only among active older women. No neighborhood characteristic was related to participation in LTPA. CONCLUSIONS: From a public health point of view, the provision of parks and non-residential destinations (shops, schools, cultural and worship places) might contribute to elevate PA levels of already active older women. On the other hand, in this setting, crime was not a big issue.

The development of an early warning system for climate-sensitive disease risk with a focus on dengue epidemics in Southeast Brazil.

Previous studies demonstrate statistically significant associations between disease and climate variations, highlighting the potential for developing climate-based epidemic early warning systems. However, limitations include failure to allow for non-climatic confounding factors, limited geographical/temporal resolution, or lack of evaluation of predictive validity. Here, we consider such issues for dengue in Southeast Brazil using a spatio-temporal generalised linear mixed model with parameters estimated in a Bayesian framework, allowing posterior predictive distributions to be derived in time and space. This paper builds upon a preliminary study by Lowe et al. but uses extended, more recent data and a refined model formulation, which, amongst other adjustments, incorporates past dengue risk to improve model predictions. For the first time, a thorough evaluation and validation of model performance is conducted using out-of-sample predictions and demonstrates considerable improvement over a model that mirrors current surveillance practice. Using the model, we can issue probabilistic dengue early warnings for pre-defined 'alert' thresholds. With the use of the criterion 'greater than a 50% chance of exceeding 300 cases per 100,000 inhabitants', there would have been successful epidemic alerts issued for 81% of the 54 regions that experienced epidemic dengue incidence rates in February-April 2008, with a corresponding false alarm rate of 25%. We propose a novel visualisation technique to map ternary probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk. This technique allows decision makers to identify areas where the model predicts with certainty a particular dengue risk category, to effectively target limited resources to those districts most at risk for a given season.

Physical activity-friendly neighbourhood among older adults from a medium size urban setting in Southern Europe.

OBJECTIVE: In this cross-sectional study, we examined the relationship between socio-environmental characteristics of neighborhood of residence and the frequency of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) among older adults from Porto (Portugal). METHOD: Data from EpiPorto - a prospective adult cohort study from Porto (Portugal) - were used. Only adults aged ≥ 65 at baseline (1999-2003) were included (n=580). We used a Geographic Information System to objectively measure the neighborhood characteristics and Generalized Additive Models to estimate their effect on participation in LTPA (none vs. some reported) and frequency of LTPA (min/day). RESULTS: 62% of the participants reported no LTPA. Active elderly spent on average 38 (women) and 67 (men) minutes per day exercising. Neighborhood characteristics were unrelated to whether older people exercised or not. However, among active individuals, distance to the nearest destination (ß=-0.154, p=0.016), in women, and distance to the nearest park, in men (-0.030, 0.050), were predictors of LTPA frequency. CONCLUSION: There was almost no association between neighborhood characteristics and whether older adults engaged in LTPA or not, but among those that did engage, neighborhood characteristics were associated with increased frequency of LTPA. The promotion of well distributed destinations and parks might improve physical activity levels among the elderly.

[Social determinants and self-reported tuberculosis: National Research by Household Sample, metropolitan areas, Brazil]. / Determinantes sociais e autorrelato de tuberculose nas regiões metropolitanas conforme a Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios, Brasil.

OBJECTIVE: To verify the association between individual demographic and socioeconomic variables and the incidence of self-reported tuberculosis in Brazil. METHODS: This cross-sectional study used data from the health supplement of the 2008 National Research by Household Sample (PNAD) for Brazil's metropolitan areas. An analysis was done of the association between demographic, social, and health service use variables and the odds of having been diagnosed with tuberculosis, according to data from PNAD. Socioeconomic status was assessed based on per capita household income, educational attainment, race, and number of persons per bedroom. Having a place of reference for health care and having health insurance were used as proxy for access to health care, and having been to a doctor in the previous 12 months was used as a variable of health service use. Due to the complex sample design of PNAD, logistic regression was used, taking into account the design effect. RESULTS: The odds of being diagnosed with tuberculosis increased with age and were greater among men. Within the nine metropolitan areas, the effect of income was observed starting at half the minimum wage, with odds decreasing as income increased. Not having seen a doctor in the previous year and having finished high school reduced the odds of reporting tuberculosis by 60%. CONCLUSIONS: Improving the living conditions of vulnerable population segments and facilitating their access to diagnosis should be primary strategies for controlling tuberculosis.

The Role of Children in Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Across Four Waves of the Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: It is important to understand the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in close-contact settings such as households. We hypothesized that children would most often acquire SARS-CoV-2 from a symptomatic adult caregiver. METHODS: This prospective cohort study was conducted from April 2020 to July 2022 in a low-resource, urban settlement in Brazil. We recruited families who brought their children to a public clinic. We collected nasopharyngeal and oral swabs from household members and tracked symptoms and vaccination. RESULTS: In total, 1256 participants in 298 households were tested for SARS-CoV-2. A total of 4073 RT-PCR tests were run with 893 SARS-CoV-2 positive results (21.9%). SARS-CoV-2 cases were defined as isolated cases (N = 158) or well-defined transmission events (N = 175). The risk of household transmission was lower if the index case was a child (OR: 0.3 [95% CI: 0.16-0.55], P < .001) or was vaccinated (OR: 0.29 [95% CI: 0.1-0.85], P = .024), and higher if the index was symptomatic (OR: 2.53 [95% CI: 1.51-4.26], P < .001). The secondary attack rate for child index cases to child contacts was 0.29, whereas the secondary attack rate for adult index cases to child contacts was 0.47 (P = .08). CONCLUSIONS: In this community, children were significantly less infectious to their household contacts than adolescents or adults. Most children were infected by a symptomatic adult, usually their mother. There was a double benefit of vaccination as it protected the vaccine from severe illness and prevented onward transmission to household contacts. Our findings may also be valid for similar populations throughout Latin America.

Association between self-rated health and mortality: 10 years follow-up to the Pró-Saúde cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The association between self-rated health (SRH) and mortality is well documented in the literature, but studies on the subject among young adults in Latin America are rare, as are those evaluating this association using repeated SRH measures, beyond the baseline measurement. This study aims to evaluate the association between SRH evaluated at three data collection stages and mortality. METHODS: Cox regression models were used to examine the association between SRH (Very good, Good, Fair/Poor) varying over time and mortality, over a 10 year period, in a cohort of non-faculty civil servants at a public university in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (Pró-Saúde Study, n = 4009, men = 44.4%). RESULTS: About 40% of the population changed their self-rating over the course of follow-up. After adjustment for self-reported physician-diagnosed chronic diseases and other covariates, men who reported "Fair/Poor" SRH showed relative hazard of death of 2.13 (CI95% 1.03-4.40) and women, 3.43 (CI95% 1.23-9.59), as compared with those who reported "Very good" SRH. CONCLUSIONS: In a population of young adults, our findings reinforce the role of SRH as a predictor of mortality, even controlling for objective measures of health.

[Vaccines and social media: a debate around vaccines on Instagram and Facebook during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021)]. / Vacinas e redes sociais: o debate em torno das vacinas no Instagram e Facebook durante a pandemia de COVID-19 (2020-2021).

Considering that the Internet and especially social media work as a locus for the circulation of information on COVID-19, this study aimed to assess the attention given to the vaccine theme on Instagram and Facebook in posts throughout two years of pandemic, identifying the temporality in which discussion about the different immunizing agents in social media and highlighting the actors who permeated the discussions on the subject. Data were collected using the CrowdTangle graphical interface, based on search terms in Portuguese related to vaccines approved for use in Brazil and it included posts from public Facebook pages and open Instagram profiles made from January 1st, 2020, to December 31st, 2021. The database included 3,876,408 posts (2,901,457 on Facebook and 974,952 on Instagram). The results showed an alternation of Pfizer, CoronaVac, AstraZeneca, and Janssen vaccines as the focus of discussion, following the public debate established in the country around the dilemmas and advances related to the development, production, distribution, and application of immunizing agents. References to institutions involved in the acquisition and production of immunizing agents were also identified, such as the Brazilian Ministry of Health, the Butantan Institute, and the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, present among the thousand social actors that most generated comments from users in both networks. It was evidenced that the debate on immunizing agents, in the analyzed channels and period, was permeated by social media related to journalism and politicians and celebrities' pages and profiles.

Tendo em vista que a Internet e, em especial, as redes sociais funcionam como lócus para a circulação de informações sobre a COVID-19, o objetivo deste estudo foi verificar a atenção dispensada à temática das vacinas no Instagram e Facebook em postagens feitas ao longo de dois anos de pandemia, identificando a temporalidade em que a discussão sobre os diferentes imunizantes nas redes sociais ocorreu e apontando atores que permearam as discussões envolvendo o tema. A coleta de dados foi feita pela interface gráfica do CrowdTangle, a partir de termos de consulta em português relacionados às vacinas aprovadas para uso no Brasil e contemplou postagens de páginas públicas no Facebook e perfis abertos no Instagram feitas de 1º de janeiro de 2020 a 31 de dezembro de 2021. O banco de dados analisado possui 3.876.408 publicações (2.901.457 no Facebook e 974.952 no Instagram). Os resultados evidenciaram uma alternância das vacinas Pfizer, CoronaVac, AstraZeneca e Janssen como foco de discussão, acompanhando temporalmente o debate público que se estabeleceu no país em torno dos dilemas e avanços relativos ao desenvolvimento, à produção, à distribuição e à aplicação dos imunizantes. Também foram identificadas referências às instituições envolvidas na aquisição e produção dos imunizantes, como o Ministério da Saúde, o Instituto Butantan e a Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz), presentes entre os mil atores sociais que mais despertaram comentários por parte dos usuários em ambas as redes. Evidenciou-se que o debate sobre imunizantes, nos canais e no período analisados, foi permeado por meios de comunicação ligados ao jornalismo, além de páginas e perfis ligados a políticos e celebridades.

Dado que Internet y, en particular, las redes sociales funcionan como espacios de circulación de la información sobre el COVID-19, el objetivo de este estudio fue verificar la atención prestada al tema de las vacunas en Instagram y Facebook en los posts realizados a lo largo de dos años de pandemia, identificando la temporalidad en que se produjo la discusión sobre los diferentes inmunizantes en las redes sociales y señalando los actores que permeaban las discusiones que involucraban el tema. La recopilación de datos se realizó mediante la interfaz gráfica de CrowdTangle, a partir de términos de consulta en portugués relacionados con las vacunas aprobadas para su uso en Brasil y contempló publicaciones de páginas públicas en Facebook y perfiles abiertos en Instagram realizadas desde el 1º de enero de 2020 hasta el 31 de diciembre de 2021. La base de datos analizada cuenta con 3.876.408 publicaciones (2.901.457 en Facebook y 974.952 en Instagram). Los resultados mostraron una alternancia de las vacunas de Pfizer, CoronaVac, AstraZeneca y Janssen como foco de discusión, siguiendo temporalmente el debate público que se estableció en el país en torno a los dilemas y avances relacionados con el desarrollo, la producción, la distribución y la aplicación de los inmunizantes. También se identificaron referencias a instituciones involucradas en la adquisición y producción de inmunizantes, como el Ministerio de Salud de Brasil, el Instituto Butantan y la Fundación Oswaldo Cruz, presentes entre los mil actores sociales que más despertaron comentarios de los usuarios en ambas redes. Fue evidente que el debate sobre los inmunizadores, en los canales y período analizados, estuvo permeado por medios vinculados al periodismo, además de páginas y perfiles vinculados a políticos y celebridades.

Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 over four epidemic waves in a low-resource community in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: A prospective cohort study.

Background: Incidence rates of SARS-CoV-2 infections in low-resource communities can inform vaccination strategies and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Our objective was to estimate incidence over four epidemic waves in a slum in Rio de Janeiro, a proxy for economically deprived areas in the Global South. Methods: Prospective cohort of children and household contacts screened for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR and serology (IgG). The incidence density of PCR positive infections estimated for each wave - the first wave, Zeta, Gamma and Delta - was compared to an index combining NPIs and vaccination coverage. Findings: 718 families and 2501 individuals were enrolled, from May 2020 to November 2021. The incidence density of SARS-CoV-2 infection due to the first wave was 2, 3 times that of the other waves. The incidence among children was lower than that of older participants, except in later waves, when vaccination of the elderly reached 90%. Household agglomeration was significantly associated with incidence only during the first wave. Interpretation: The incidence of infection greatly exceeded rates reported in similar cohorts. The observed reduction in incidence in the elderly during the Delta variant wave, in spite of the rollback of NPIs, can be attributed to increased vaccine coverage. The high incidence in young people reinforces the importance of vaccination in this age group, a policy that has yet to receive the full support of some sectors of society. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, Foundation for the Advancement of Science of the State of Rio de Janeiro, National Council for Scientific and Technological Development.

ArboAlvo: stratification method for territorial receptivity to urban arboviruses.

OBJECTIVE: To present the urban arboviruses (dengue, zika and chikungunya) stratification methodology by the territorial receptivity Index, an instrument for the surveillance and control of these diseases, which considers the heterogeneity of an intra-municipal territory. METHODS: Ecological study that uses as unit of analysis the areas covered by health centers in Belo Horizonte. For the development of a territorial receptivity index, indicators of socio-environmental determination of urban arboviruses were selected in order to integrate the analysis of main components. The resulting components were weighted by the analytic hierarchy process and combined via map algebra. RESULTS: The territorial receptivity index showed great heterogeneity of urban infrastructure conditions. The areas classified with high and very high receptivity correspond to approximately 33% of the occupied area and are mainly concentrated in the administrative planning regions of East, Northeast, North, West, and Barreiro, especially in areas surrounding the municipality. When the density of dengue cases and Aedes eggs, from 2016, were superimposed with the stratification by the index of territorial receptivity to urban arboviruses, areas of very high receptivity had a high density of cases and Aedes eggs - higher than that observed in other areas of the city, which corresponds to a very small percentage of the municipal territory (13.5%). CONCLUSION: The analyses indicate the need for the development of adequate surveillance and control actions for each context, overcoming the logic of homogeneous allocation throughout the territory.

Comparison between self-image and body mass index among children living in a slum in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2012. / Comparação entre autoimagem e índice de massa corporal entre crianças residentes em favela do Rio de Janeiro, 2012.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze agreement/discrepancy between body self-image and Body Mass Index (BMI), according to variables related to type of food and environment influence. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional analysis of 195 prepubescent children (≥5 years), attending a Primary Health Care service in Manguinhos, Rio de Janeiro. Z-scores were applied to classify BMI. Self-image was collected using the figure rating scale (silhouettes) validated for children. A multinomial model was used to estimate covariate association with the underestimated/overestimated BMI outcome in relation to self-image. RESULTS: Overweight children underestimated their BMI, as compared with self-image, more often (58.6%) than obese children (22.0%) and children with adequate BMI (49.0%). This dissociation was correlated to participation in a cash transfer program (OR=2.01 - 95%CI 1.04;3.90) and daily consumption of sugar-sweetened foodstuffs (OR=3.88 - 95%CI 1.05;14.39). CONCLUSION: Underestimation of BMI among overweight children should be taken into account by Primary Health Care services, in order to enhance intervention practices.

Spatio-temporal modelling of the first Chikungunya epidemic in an intra-urban setting: The role of socioeconomic status, environment and temperature.

Three key elements are the drivers of Aedes-borne disease: mosquito infestation, virus circulating, and susceptible human population. However, information on these aspects is not easily available in low- and middle-income countries. We analysed data on factors that influence one or more of those elements to study the first chikungunya epidemic in Rio de Janeiro city in 2016. Using spatio-temporal models, under the Bayesian framework, we estimated the association of those factors with chikungunya reported cases by neighbourhood and week. To estimate the minimum temperature effect in a non-linear fashion, we used a transfer function considering an instantaneous effect and propagation of a proportion of such effect to future times. The sociodevelopment index and the proportion of green areas (areas with agriculture, swamps and shoals, tree and shrub cover, and woody-grass cover) were included in the model with time-varying coefficients, allowing us to explore how their associations with the number of cases change throughout the epidemic. There were 13627 chikungunya cases in the study period. The sociodevelopment index presented the strongest association, inversely related to the risk of cases. Such association was more pronounced in the first weeks, indicating that socioeconomically vulnerable neighbourhoods were affected first and hardest by the epidemic. The proportion of green areas effect was null for most weeks. The temperature was directly associated with the risk of chikungunya for most neighbourhoods, with different decaying patterns. The temperature effect persisted longer where the epidemic was concentrated. In such locations, interventions should be designed to be continuous and to work in the long term. We observed that the role of the covariates changes over time. Therefore, time-varying coefficients should be widely incorporated when modelling Aedes-borne diseases. Our model contributed to the understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of an urban Aedes-borne disease introduction in a tropical metropolitan city.

Combined effects of hydrometeorological hazards and urbanisation on dengue risk in Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Temperature and rainfall patterns are known to influence seasonal patterns of dengue transmission. However, the effect of severe drought and extremely wet conditions on the timing and intensity of dengue epidemics is poorly understood. In this study, we aimed to quantify the non-linear and delayed effects of extreme hydrometeorological hazards on dengue risk by level of urbanisation in Brazil using a spatiotemporal model. METHODS: We combined distributed lag non-linear models with a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model framework to determine the exposure-lag-response association between the relative risk (RR) of dengue and a drought severity index. We fit the model to monthly dengue case data for the 558 microregions of Brazil between January, 2001, and January, 2019, accounting for unobserved confounding factors, spatial autocorrelation, seasonality, and interannual variability. We assessed the variation in RR by level of urbanisation through an interaction between the drought severity index and urbanisation. We also assessed the effect of hydrometeorological hazards on dengue risk in areas with a high frequency of water supply shortages. FINDINGS: The dataset included 12 895 293 dengue cases reported between 2001 and 2019 in Brazil. Overall, the risk of dengue increased between 0-3 months after extremely wet conditions (maximum RR at 1 month lag 1·56 [95% CI 1·41-1·73]) and 3-5 months after drought conditions (maximum RR at 4 months lag 1·43 [1·22-1·67]). Including a linear interaction between the drought severity index and level of urbanisation improved the model fit and showed the risk of dengue was higher in more rural areas than highly urbanised areas during extremely wet conditions (maximum RR 1·77 [1·32-2·37] at 0 months lag vs maximum RR 1·58 [1·39-1·81] at 2 months lag), but higher in highly urbanised areas than rural areas after extreme drought (maximum RR 1·60 [1·33-1·92] vs 1·15 [1·08-1·22], both at 4 months lag). We also found the dengue risk following extreme drought was higher in areas that had a higher frequency of water supply shortages. INTERPRETATION: Wet conditions and extreme drought can increase the risk of dengue with different delays. The risk associated with extremely wet conditions was higher in more rural areas and the risk associated with extreme drought was exacerbated in highly urbanised areas, which have water shortages and intermittent water supply during droughts. These findings have implications for targeting mosquito control activities in poorly serviced urban areas, not only during the wet and warm season, but also during drought periods. FUNDING: Royal Society, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, National Institutes of Health, Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, and Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico. TRANSLATION: For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection Dynamics in Children and Household Contacts in a Slum in Rio de Janeiro.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in a vulnerable population of children and their household contacts. METHODS: SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assays and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) immunoglobulin G serology tests were performed in children and their household contacts after enrollment during primary health care clinic visits. Participants were followed prospectively with subsequent specimens collected through household visits in Manguinhos, an impoverished urban slum (a favela) in Rio de Janeiro at 1, 2, and 4 weeks and quarterly post study enrollment. RESULTS: Six hundred sixty-seven participants from 259 households were enrolled from May to September 2020. This included 323 children (0-13 years), 54 adolescents (14-19 years), and 290 adults. Forty-five (13.9%) children had positive test results for SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction. SARS-CoV-2 infection was most frequent in children aged <1 year (25%) and children aged 11 to 13 years (21%). No child had severe COVID-19 symptoms. Asymptomatic infection was more prevalent in children aged <14 years than in those aged ≥14 years (74.3% and 51.1%, respectively). All children (n = 45) diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection had an adult contact with evidence of recent infection. CONCLUSIONS: In our setting, children do not seem to be the source of SARS-CoV-2 infection and most frequently acquire the virus from adults. Our findings suggest that, in settings such as ours, schools and child care potentially may be reopened safely if adequate COVID-19 mitigation measures are in place and staff are appropriately immunized.