Testing the intrinsic mechanisms driving the dynamics of Ross River Virus across Australia.

The mechanisms driving dynamics of many epidemiologically important mosquito-borne pathogens are complex, involving combinations of vector and host factors (e.g., species composition and life-history traits), and factors associated with transmission and reporting. Understanding which intrinsic mechanisms contribute most to observed disease dynamics is important, yet often poorly understood. Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most important mosquito-borne disease, with variable transmission dynamics across geographic regions. We used deterministic ordinary differential equation models to test mechanisms driving RRV dynamics across major epidemic centers in Brisbane, Darwin, Mandurah, Mildura, Gippsland, Renmark, Murray Bridge, and Coorong. We considered models with up to two vector species (Aedes vigilax, Culex annulirostris, Aedes camptorhynchus, Culex globocoxitus), two reservoir hosts (macropods, possums), seasonal transmission effects, and transmission parameters. We fit models against long-term RRV surveillance data (1991-2017) and used Akaike Information Criterion to select important mechanisms. The combination of two vector species, two reservoir hosts, and seasonal transmission effects explained RRV dynamics best across sites. Estimated vector-human transmission rate (average ß = 8.04x10-4per vector per day) was similar despite different dynamics. Models estimate 43% underreporting of RRV infections. Findings enhance understanding of RRV transmission mechanisms, provide disease parameter estimates which can be used to guide future research into public health improvements and offer a basis to evaluate mitigation practices.

Adaptive interventions for advancing in situ wildlife disease management.

There is a critical need for advancements in disease management strategies for wildlife, but free-living animals pose numerous challenges that can hinder progress. Most disease management attempts involve fixed interventions accompanied by post hoc outcome assessments focused on success or failure. Though these approaches have led to valuable management advances, there are limitations to both the rate of advancement and amount of information that can be gained. As such, strategies that support more rapid progress are required. Sarcoptic mange, caused by epidermal infection with Sarcoptes scabiei mites, is a globally emerging and re-emerging panzootic that exemplifies this problem. The bare-nosed wombat (Vombatus ursinus), a marsupial endemic to southeastern Australia, is impacted by sarcoptic mange throughout its geographic range and enhanced disease management capabilities are needed to improve upon existing in situ methods. We sought to advance in situ wildlife disease management for sarcoptic mange in free-living bare-nosed wombats, implementing an adaptive approach using fluralaner (Bravecto, MSD Animal Health) and a structured process of learning and method-optimisation. By using surveillance of treated wombats to inform real-time management changes, we have demonstrated the efficacy of topically administered fluralaner at 45 and 85 mg/kg against sarcoptic mange. Importantly, we observed variation in the effects of 45 mg/kg doses, but through our adaptive approach found that 85 mg/kg doses consistently reduced mange severity. Through modifying our surveillance program, we also identified individual-level variation in wombat observability and used this to quantify the level of surveillance needed to assess long-term management success. Our adaptive intervention represents the first report of sarcoptic mange management with fluralaner in free-living wildlife and evaluation of its efficacy in situ. This study illustrates how adapting interventions in real time can advance wildlife disease management and may be applicable to accelerating in situ improvements for other host-pathogen systems.

The effects of spatially-constrained treatment regions upon a model of wombat mange.

The use of therapeutic agents is a critical option to manage wildlife disease, but their implementation is usually spatially constrained. We seek to expand knowledge around the effectiveness of management of environmentally-transmitted Sarcoptes scabiei on a host population, by studying the effect of a spatially constrained treatment regime on disease dynamics in the bare-nosed wombat Vombatus ursinus. A host population of wombats is modelled using a system of non-linear partial differential equations, a spatially-varying treatment regime is applied to this population and the dynamics are studied over a period of several years. Treatment could result in mite decrease within the treatment region, extending to a lesser degree outside, with significant increases in wombat population. However, the benefits of targeted treatment regions within an environment are shown to be dependent on conditions at the start (endemic vs. disease free), as well as on the locations of these special regions (centre of the wombat population or against a geographical boundary). This research demonstrates the importance of understanding the state of the environment and populations before treatment commences, the effects of re-treatment schedules within the treatment region, and the transient large-scale changes in mite numbers that can be brought about by sudden changes to the environment. It also demonstrates that, with good knowledge of the host-pathogen dynamics and the spatial terrain, it is possible to achieve substantial reduction in mite numbers within the target region, with increases in wombat numbers throughout the environment.

The spectral underpinnings of pathogen spread on animal networks.

Predicting what factors promote or protect populations from infectious disease is a fundamental epidemiological challenge. Social networks, where nodes represent hosts and edges represent direct or indirect contacts between them, are important in quantifying these aspects of infectious disease dynamics. However, how network structure and epidemic parameters interact in empirical networks to promote or protect animal populations from infectious disease remains a challenge. Here we draw on advances in spectral graph theory and machine learning to build predictive models of pathogen spread on a large collection of empirical networks from across the animal kingdom. We show that the spectral features of an animal network are powerful predictors of pathogen spread for a variety of hosts and pathogens and can be a valuable proxy for the vulnerability of animal networks to pathogen spread. We validate our findings using interpretable machine learning techniques and provide a flexible web application for animal health practitioners to assess the vulnerability of a particular network to pathogen spread.

Drying dynamics of pellet feces.

Pellet feces are generated by a number of animals important to science or agriculture, including mice, rats, goats, and wombats. Understanding the factors that lead to fecal shape may provide a better understanding of animal health and diet. In this combined experimental and theoretical study, we test the hypothesis that pellet feces are formed by drying processes in the intestine. Inspirational to our work is the formation of hexagonal columnar jointings in cooling lava beds, in which the width L of the hexagon scales as L ∼ J-1 where J is the heat flux from the bed. Across 22 species of mammals, we report a transition from cylindrical to pellet feces if fecal water content drops below 0.65. Using a mathematical model that accounts for water intake rate and intestinal dimensions, we show pellet feces length L scales as L ∼ J-2.08 where J is the flux of water absorbed by the intestines. We build a mimic of the mammalian intestine using a corn starch cake drying in an open trough, finding that corn starch pellet length scales with water flux-0.46. The range of exponents does not permit us to conclude that formation of columnar jointings is similar to the formation of pellet feces. Nevertheless, the methods and physical picture shown here may be of use to physicians and veterinarians interested in using feces length as a marker of intestinal health.

Density independent decline from an environmentally transmitted parasite.

Invasive environmentally transmitted parasites have the potential to cause declines in host populations independent of host density, but this is rarely characterized in naturally occurring populations. We investigated (1) epidemiological features of a declining bare-nosed wombat (Vombatus ursinus) population in central Tasmania owing to a sarcoptic mange (agent Sarcoptes scabiei) outbreak, and (2) reviewed all longitudinal wombat-mange studies to improve our understanding of when host population declines may occur. Over a 7-year period, the wombat population declined 80% (95% CI 77-86%) and experienced a 55% range contraction. The average apparent prevalence of mange was high 27% (95% CI 21-34), increased slightly over our study period, and the population decline continued unabated, independent of declining host abundance. Combined with other longitudinal studies, our research indicated wombat populations may be at risk of decline when apparent prevalence exceeds 25%. This empirical study supports the capacity of environmentally transmitted parasites to cause density independent host population declines and suggests prevalence limits may be an indicator of impending decline-causing epizootics in bare-nosed wombats. This research is the first to test effects of density in mange epizootics where transmission is environmental and may provide a guide for when apparent prevalence indicates a local conservation threat.

Parasites as conservation tools.

Parasite success typically depends on a close relationship with one or more hosts; therefore, attributes of parasitic infection have the potential to provide indirect details of host natural history and are biologically relevant to animal conservation. Characterization of parasite infections has been useful in delineating host populations and has served as a proxy for assessment of environmental quality. In other cases, the utility of parasites is just being explored, for example, as indicators of host connectivity. Innovative studies of parasite biology can provide information to manage major conservation threats by using parasite assemblage, prevalence, or genetic data to provide insights into the host. Overexploitation, habitat loss and fragmentation, invasive species, and climate change are major threats to animal conservation, and all of these can be informed by parasites.

Los Parásitos como Herramienta de Conservación Resumen El éxito de los parásitos depende típicamente de la relación cercana con uno o más hospederos; por lo tanto, las características de la infección parasitaria tienen potencial para proporcionar detalles indirectos de la historia natural del hospedero y son biológicamente relevantes para la conservación animal. La caracterización de las infecciones parasitarias ha sido útil para definir a las poblaciones hospederas y ha servido como sustituto para la evaluación de la calidad ambiental. Los estudios innovadores de la biología de parásitos pueden proporcionar información para manejar las principales amenazas a la conservación mediante la información proporcionada por el conjunto de parásitos, su prevalencia o genética que proporciona conocimiento sobre el hospedero. La sobreexplotación, la pérdida del hábitat y la fragmentación, las especies invasoras y el cambio climático son las principales amenazas para la conservación animal y a todas pueden ser informadas mediante los parásitos.

Evidence underscoring immunological and clinical pathological changes associated with Sarcoptes scabiei infection: synthesis and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sarcoptes scabiei is one of the most impactful mammalian parasites. There has been much research on immunological and clinical pathological changes associated with S. scabiei parasitism across a range of host species. This rich body of literature is complex, and we seek to bring that complexity together in this study. We first (1) synthesise narrative reviews of immunopathological relationships to S. scabiei infection to construct overarching hypotheses; then (2) undertake a systematic meta-analysis of primary literature on immunological and clinical pathological changes; and lastly (3) contrast our findings from the meta-analysis to our synthesis from narrative reviews. METHODS: We synthesised 55 narrative reviews into two overarching hypotheses representing type I and type IV immune responses to S. scabiei infection. We then systematically extracted all literature reporting immunological variables, acute phase proteins, oxidant/antioxidant status, and erythrocytic, hepatological and nephrological changes, calculating 565 effect sizes between controls and sarcoptic mange affected groupings, refining (simplifying) hypotheses from narrative reviews. RESULTS: Immunological and clinical pathological parameters were most often studied in dogs (n = 12) and humans (n = 14). Combining immunological and clinical pathological information across mammalian species (n = 19) helped yield general insights into observed disease responses. This is evidenced by interspecific consensus in 27 immunological and clinical pathology variables (6/26 type I hypersensitivity, 3/20 type IV hypersensitivity, 6/10 oxidant/antioxidant status, 3/6 acute phase protein, 4/7 erythrocytic, and 5/10 hepatological/nephrological). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated IgE, eosinophils and mast cells in type I hypersensitivity response corresponded to what was described in narrative reviews. Results from type IV hypersensitivity response suggested typical antibody response, however cell-mediated response was less evident. Some consensus of acute phase protein response and shifted oxidant/antioxidant balance and slight evidence of anemia. We highlight the need for mange/scabies studies to more routinely compare immunological and clinical pathological changes against controls, and include collection of a more standardised suite of variables among studies.

Drug dose and animal welfare: important considerations in the treatment of wildlife.

A recent publication in Parasitology Research by (Old et al. Parasitol Res 120:1077-1090, 2021) raises the topical and often controversial issue of the treatment of wildlife by personnel with little or no formal scientific training (e.g. wildlife carers). In a valuable contribution to the subject, Old and colleagues document a wide range of topical (pour-on) application doses and frequencies of moxidectin (Cydectin®) administered in situ to bare-nosed wombats (Vombatus ursinus) by members of the wildlife carer/treater community in southeast Australia to treat sarcoptic mange disease. This treatment occurred under minor use permits issued by the Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Management Authority (APVMA). These permits do not require veterinary supervision, although carers are registered and are expected to comply with the guidelines of this permit.The prevalence and severity of sarcoptic mange in wildlife is influenced by a variety of factors including mite biology, environmental conditions, population density, animal behaviour and immune susceptibility (Browne et al. Bioscience, 2021). In bare-nosed wombats, combinations of these elements play a substantial role in making the treatment of an already difficult disease more complex. (Moroni et al. Parasit Vectors 13:471, 2020) comment that any pharmacological treatment of free-ranging wildlife must consider these factors when assessing their feasibility and implications, especially in the context of emerging drug resistance and potential long-term ecological impacts. As individuals with significant interest in sarcoptic mange and representing a range of professional research and veterinary expertise, we see value in providing expert commentary on this issue.

Intestines of non-uniform stiffness mold the corners of wombat feces.

The bare-nosed wombat (Vombatus ursinus) is a fossorial, herbivorous, Australian marsupial, renowned for its cubic feces. However, the ability of the wombat's soft intestine to sculpt flat faces and sharp corners in feces is poorly understood. In this combined experimental and numerical study, we show one mechanism for the formation of corners in a highly damped environment. Wombat dissections show that cubes are formed within the last 17 percent of the intestine. Using histology and tensile testing, we discover that the cross-section of the intestine exhibits regions with a two-fold increase in thickness and a four-fold increase in stiffness, which we hypothesize facilitates the formation of corners by contractions of the intestine. Using a mathematical model, we simulate a series of azimuthal contractions of a damped elastic ring composed of alternating stiff and soft regions. Increased stiffness ratio and higher Reynolds number yield shapes that are more square. The corners arise from faster contraction in the stiff regions and relatively slower movement in the center of the soft regions. These results may have applications in manufacturing, clinical pathology, and digestive health.

Contrasting population manipulations reveal resource competition between two large marsupials: bare-nosed wombats and eastern grey kangaroos.

Resource competition is an important interaction that can structure ecological communities, but is difficult to demonstrate in nature, and rarely demonstrated for large mammals including marsupials. We analysed 10 years of population survey data to investigate resource competition between bare-nosed wombats (Vombatus ursinus) and eastern grey kangaroos (Macropus giganteus) at two sites to assess whether resource competition is occurring. At one site, wombat abundance was reduced by increased mortality from mange disease, whereas at the other site, kangaroo abundance was reduced primarily by culling. We used the modified Lotka-Volterra competition (LVC) models to describe the mechanism of resource competition and fitted those models to the empirical data by maximum likelihood estimation. We found strong negative relationships between the abundance of wombats and kangaroos at each site, and resource competition was also mechanistically supported by the modified LVC models. The estimated competition coefficients indicate that bare-nosed wombats are a slightly superior competitor of eastern grey kangaroos than vice versa, and that intraspecific competition is almost twice as strong as interspecific competition. In addition, this study facilitated the calculation of the transmission rate associated with mange disease at one site (0.011), and the removal rate owing to culling, the introduction of a predator species, and drought at the other site (0.0006). Collectively, this research represents a rare empirical demonstration of resource competition between large mammals and contributes new insight into the ecology of two of Australia's largest grazing marsupials.

Variation in Intra-individual Lentiviral Evolution Rates: a Systematic Review of Human, Nonhuman Primate, and Felid Species.

Lentiviral replication mediated by reverse transcriptase is considered to be highly error prone, leading to a high intra-individual evolution rate that promotes evasion of neutralization and persistent infection. Understanding lentiviral intra-individual evolutionary dynamics on a comparative basis can therefore inform research strategies to aid in studies of pathogenesis, vaccine design, and therapeutic intervention. We conducted a systematic review of intra-individual evolution rates for three species groups of lentiviruses-feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV), simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV), and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Overall, intra-individual rate estimates differed by virus but not by host, gene, or viral strain. Lentiviral infections in spillover (nonadapted) hosts approximated infections in primary (adapted) hosts. Our review consistently documents that FIV evolution rates within individuals are significantly lower than the rates recorded for HIV and SIV. FIV intra-individual evolution rates were noted to be equivalent to FIV interindividual rates. These findings document inherent differences in the evolution of FIV relative to that of primate lentiviruses, which may signal intrinsic difference of reverse transcriptase between these viral species or different host-viral interactions. Analysis of lentiviral evolutionary selection pressures at the individual versus population level is valuable for understanding transmission dynamics and the emergence of virulent and avirulent strains and provides novel insight for approaches to interrupt lentiviral infections.IMPORTANCE To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that compares intra-individual evolution rates for FIV, SIV, and HIV following systematic review of the literature. Our findings have important implications for informing research strategies in the field of intra-individual virus dynamics for lentiviruses. We observed that FIV evolves more slowly than HIV and SIV at the intra-individual level and found that mutation rates may differ by gene sequence length but not by host, gene, strain, an experimental setting relative to a natural setting, or spillover host infection relative to primary host infection.

When are pathogen dynamics likely to reflect host population genetic structure?

Does the structure and connectivity of host populations influence the dynamics and evolution of their pathogens? This topical question is the essence of research investigating the ecology of a Pteropus fruit bat and its zoonotic Nipah virus (NiV) published by Olival et al. in this issue of Molecular Ecology. Questioned less overtly, but nonetheless implicit to the study, is "what are the mechanisms underpinning intraspecific host-pathogen congruence (IHPC) of genetic structure?". Olival et al. investigated the phylogeographical structure of Pteropus medius and NiV isolates across Bangladesh, from areas inside and outside of the Nipah belt-an area where most human spillover events occur. A high degree of host panmixia was discovered, with some population differentiation east of the Nipah belt. NiV genetic structure was congruent with the host. The authors attributed the panmixia and structuring, respectively, to (a) the highly vagile nature of P. medius, and (b) possible differences between bioregions within and outside the Nipah belt. Other potential explanatory mechanisms were acknowledged, including hybridization and transmission mode. This study makes a valuable contribution to a growing body of literature examining IHPC. This has implications not only for pathogen spillover to humans and domestic animals, but more generally for thinking about the mechanisms that underlie patterns of host and pathogen genetic associations.

Beyond heuristics: CFD-based novel multiparameter scale-up for geometrically disparate bioreactors demonstrated at industrial 2kL-10kL scales.

The timely delivery of the most up-to-date medicines and drug products is essential for patients throughout the world. Successful scaling of the bioreactors used within the biopharmaceutical industry plays a large part in the quality and time to market of these products. Scale and topology differences between vessels add a large degree of complication and uncertainty within the scaling process. Currently, this approach is primarily achieved through extensive experimentation and facile empirical correlations, which can be costly and time consuming while providing limited information. The work undertaken in the current study demonstrates a more robust and complete approach using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to provide potent multiparameter scalability, which only requires geometric and material properties before a comprehensive and detailed solution can be generated. The CFD model output parameters that can be applied in the scale-up include mass transfer rates, mixing times, shear rates, gas hold-up values, and bubble residence times. The authors examined three bioreactors with variable geometries and were able to validate them based on single-phase and multiphase experiments. Furthermore, leveraging the resulting CFD output information enabled the authors to successfully scale-up from a known 2kL to a novel and disparate 5kL single-use bioreactor in the first attempted cell culture. This multiparameter scaling approach promises to ultimately lead to a reduction in the time to market providing patients with earlier access to the most groundbreaking medicines.

Feline Leukemia Virus (FeLV) Disease Outcomes in a Domestic Cat Breeding Colony: Relationship to Endogenous FeLV and Other Chronic Viral Infections.

Exogenous feline leukemia virus (FeLV) is a feline gammaretrovirus that results in a variety of disease outcomes. Endogenous FeLV (enFeLV) is a replication-defective provirus found in species belonging to the Felis genus, which includes the domestic cat (Felis catus). There have been few studies examining interaction between enFeLV genotype and FeLV progression. We examined point-in-time enFeLV and FeLV viral loads, as well as occurrence of FeLV/enFeLV recombinants (FeLV-B), to determine factors relating to clinical disease in a closed breeding colony of cats during a natural infection of FeLV. Coinfections with feline foamy virus (FFV), feline gammaherpesvirus 1 (FcaGHV-1), and feline coronavirus (FCoV) were also documented and analyzed for impact on cat health and FeLV disease. Correlation analysis and structural equation modeling techniques were used to measure interactions among disease parameters. Progressive FeLV disease and FeLV-B presence were associated with higher FeLV proviral and plasma viral loads. Female cats were more likely to have progressive disease and FeLV-B. Conversely, enFeLV copy number was higher in male cats and negatively associated with progressive FeLV disease. Males were more likely to have abortive FeLV disease. FFV proviral load was found to correlate positively with higher FeLV proviral and plasma viral load, detection of FeLV-B, and FCoV status. Male cats were much more likely to be infected with FcaGHV-1 than female cats. This analysis provides insights into the interplay between endogenous and exogenous FeLV during naturally occurring disease and reveals striking variation in the infection patterns among four chronic viral infections of domestic cats.IMPORTANCE Endogenous retroviruses are harbored by many animals, and their interactions with exogenous retroviral infections have not been widely studied. Feline leukemia virus (FeLV) is a relevant model system to examine this question, as endogenous and exogenous forms of the virus exist. In this analysis of a large domestic cat breeding colony naturally infected with FeLV, we documented that enFeLV copy number was higher in males and inversely related to FeLV viral load and associated with better FeLV disease outcomes. Females had lower enFeLV copy numbers and were more likely to have progressive FeLV disease and FeLV-B subtypes. FFV viral load was correlated with FeLV progression. FFV, FcaGHV-1, and FeLV displayed markedly different patterns of infection with respect to host demographics. This investigation revealed complex coinfection outcomes and viral ecology of chronic infections in a closed population.

Urbanization impacts apex predator gene flow but not genetic diversity across an urban-rural divide.

Apex predators are important indicators of intact natural ecosystems. They are also sensitive to urbanization because they require broad home ranges and extensive contiguous habitat to support their prey base. Pumas (Puma concolor) can persist near human developed areas, but urbanization may be detrimental to their movement ecology, population structure, and genetic diversity. To investigate potential effects of urbanization in population connectivity of pumas, we performed a landscape genomics study of 130 pumas on the rural Western Slope and more urbanized Front Range of Colorado, USA. Over 12,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped using double-digest, restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (ddRADseq). We investigated patterns of gene flow and genetic diversity, and tested for correlations between key landscape variables and genetic distance to assess the effects of urbanization and other landscape factors on gene flow. Levels of genetic diversity were similar for the Western Slope and Front Range, but effective population sizes were smaller, genetic distances were higher, and there was more admixture in the more urbanized Front Range. Forest cover was strongly positively associated with puma gene flow on the Western Slope, while impervious surfaces restricted gene flow and more open, natural habitats enhanced gene flow on the Front Range. Landscape genomic analyses revealed differences in puma movement and gene flow patterns in rural versus urban settings. Our results highlight the utility of dense, genome-scale markers to document subtle impacts of urbanization on a wide-ranging carnivore living near a large urban center.

Urbanization reduces genetic connectivity in bobcats (Lynx rufus) at both intra- and interpopulation spatial scales.

Urbanization is a major factor driving habitat fragmentation and connectivity loss in wildlife. However, the impacts of urbanization on connectivity can vary among species and even populations due to differences in local landscape characteristics, and our ability to detect these relationships may depend on the spatial scale at which they are measured. Bobcats (Lynx rufus) are relatively sensitive to urbanization and the status of bobcat populations is an important indicator of connectivity in urban coastal southern California. We genotyped 271 bobcats at 13,520 SNP loci to conduct a replicated landscape resistance analysis in five genetically distinct populations. We tested urban and natural factors potentially influencing individual connectivity in each population separately, as well as study-wide. Overall, landscape genomic effects were most frequently detected at the study-wide spatial scale, with urban land cover (measured as impervious surface) having negative effects and topographic roughness having positive effects on gene flow. The negative effect of urban land cover on connectivity was also evident when populations were analyzed separately despite varying substantially in spatial area and the proportion of urban development, confirming a pervasive impact of urbanization largely independent of spatial scale. The effect of urban development was strongest in one population where stream habitat had been lost to development, suggesting that riparian corridors may help mitigate reduced connectivity in urbanizing areas. Our results demonstrate the importance of replicating landscape genetic analyses across populations and considering how landscape genetic effects may vary with spatial scale and local landscape structure.

A model for the treatment of environmentally transmitted sarcoptic mange in bare-nosed wombats (Vombatus ursinus).

Some of the most important wildlife diseases involve environmental transmission, with disease control attempted via treatments that induce temporary pathogen resistance among hosts. However, theoretical explanations of such circumstances remain few. A mathematical model is proposed and investigated to analyse the dynamics and treatment of environmentally transmitted sarcoptic mange in a population of bare-nosed wombats. The wombat population is structured into four classes representing stages of infection, in a model that consists of five non-linear differential equations including the unattached mite population. It is shown that four different epidemiological outcomes are possible. These are: (1) extinction of wombats (and mites); (2) mite-free wombat populations; (3) endemic wombats and mites coexisting, with the wombats' population reduced below the environmental carrying capacity; and (4) a stable limit cycle (sustained oscillating populations) with wombat population far below carrying capacity. Empirical evidence exists for the first two of these outcomes, with the third highly likely to occur in nature, and the fourth plausible at least until wombat populations succumb to Allee effects. These potential outcomes are examined to inform treatment programs for wombat populations. Through this theoretical exploration of a relatively well understood empirical system, this study supports general learning across environmentally transmitted wildlife pathogens, increasing understanding of how pathogen dynamics may cause crashes in some populations and not others.

How to make more from exposure data? An integrated machine learning pipeline to predict pathogen exposure.

Predicting infectious disease dynamics is a central challenge in disease ecology. Models that can assess which individuals are most at risk of being exposed to a pathogen not only provide valuable insights into disease transmission and dynamics but can also guide management interventions. Constructing such models for wild animal populations, however, is particularly challenging; often only serological data are available on a subset of individuals and nonlinear relationships between variables are common. Here we provide a guide to the latest advances in statistical machine learning to construct pathogen-risk models that automatically incorporate complex nonlinear relationships with minimal statistical assumptions from ecological data with missing data. Our approach compares multiple machine learning algorithms in a unified environment to find the model with the best predictive performance and uses game theory to better interpret results. We apply this framework on two major pathogens that infect African lions: canine distemper virus (CDV) and feline parvovirus. Our modelling approach provided enhanced predictive performance compared to more traditional approaches, as well as new insights into disease risks in a wild population. We were able to efficiently capture and visualize strong nonlinear patterns, as well as model complex interactions between variables in shaping exposure risk from CDV and feline parvovirus. For example, we found that lions were more likely to be exposed to CDV at a young age but only in low rainfall years. When combined with our data calibration approach, our framework helped us to answer questions about risk of pathogen exposure that are difficult to address with previous methods. Our framework not only has the potential to aid in predicting disease risk in animal populations, but also can be used to build robust predictive models suitable for other ecological applications such as modelling species distribution or diversity patterns.

Associations between clinical canine leishmaniosis and multiple vector-borne co-infections: a case-control serological study.

BACKGROUND: Dogs that have clinical leishmaniosis (ClinL), caused by the parasite Leishmania infantum, are commonly co-infected with other pathogens, especially vector-borne pathogens (VBP). A recent PCR-based study found that ClinL dogs are more likely to be additionally infected with the rickettsial bacteria Ehrlichia canis. Further information on co-infections in ClinL cases with VBP, as assessed by serology, is required. The research described in this report determined if dogs with ClinL are at higher risk of exposure to VBP than healthy control dogs using a case-control serology study. RESULTS: Of the 47 dogs with ClinL, anti-E. canis/ Ehrlichia ewingii antibodies were detected in 17 (36.2%), anti-Anaplasma phagocytophilum/Anaplasma platys antibodies in 5 (10.6%) and antigen for Dirofilaria immitis in 2 (4.3%). Of the 87 control dogs, anti-E. canis/E. ewingii antibodies were detected in 14 (16.1%) and anti-A. phagocytophilum/A. platys antibodies in 2 (2.3%). No anti-Borrelia burgdorferi antibody tests were positive. No statistical differences between the ClinL dogs and control dogs regarding lifestyle or use of ectoparasitic prevention, were identified. The ClinL was significantly associated with anti-E. canis/E. ewingii antibodies (odds ratio = 2.9, 95% confidence interval: 1.3-6.7, P = 0.010) compared to controls by both multivariable logistic regression and structural equation modelling. CONCLUSIONS: It was demonstrated that an increased risk for E. canis/E. ewingii seropositivity is present in dogs with ClinL compared to clinically healthy control dogs, despite similar ectoparasitic prevention use and lifestyle. Based on these findings it is suggested that dogs with ClinL should not only be tested for E. canis co-infection using PCR but also serologically for E. canis/E. ewingii.