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1.
Nature ; 608(7923): 534-539, 2022 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35831499

RESUMEN

Forest ecosystems depend on their capacity to withstand and recover from natural and anthropogenic perturbations (that is, their resilience)1. Experimental evidence of sudden increases in tree mortality is raising concerns about variation in forest resilience2, yet little is known about how it is evolving in response to climate change. Here we integrate satellite-based vegetation indices with machine learning to show how forest resilience, quantified in terms of critical slowing down indicators3-5, has changed during the period 2000-2020. We show that tropical, arid and temperate forests are experiencing a significant decline in resilience, probably related to increased water limitations and climate variability. By contrast, boreal forests show divergent local patterns with an average increasing trend in resilience, probably benefiting from warming and CO2 fertilization, which may outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. These patterns emerge consistently in both managed and intact forests, corroborating the existence of common large-scale climate drivers. Reductions in resilience are statistically linked to abrupt declines in forest primary productivity, occurring in response to slow drifting towards a critical resilience threshold. Approximately 23% of intact undisturbed forests, corresponding to 3.32 Pg C of gross primary productivity, have already reached a critical threshold and are experiencing a further degradation in resilience. Together, these signals reveal a widespread decline in the capacity of forests to withstand perturbation that should be accounted for in the design of land-based mitigation and adaptation plans.


Asunto(s)
Aclimatación , Cambio Climático , Bosques , Modelos Biológicos , Árboles , Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Cambio Climático/historia , Cambio Climático/estadística & datos numéricos , Agricultura Forestal , Historia del Siglo XXI , Aprendizaje Automático , Imágenes Satelitales , Taiga , Temperatura , Árboles/crecimiento & desarrollo , Árboles/metabolismo , Agua/análisis , Agua/metabolismo
2.
Nature ; 598(7881): 468-472, 2021 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34552242

RESUMEN

The leaf economics spectrum1,2 and the global spectrum of plant forms and functions3 revealed fundamental axes of variation in plant traits, which represent different ecological strategies that are shaped by the evolutionary development of plant species2. Ecosystem functions depend on environmental conditions and the traits of species that comprise the ecological communities4. However, the axes of variation of ecosystem functions are largely unknown, which limits our understanding of how ecosystems respond as a whole to anthropogenic drivers, climate and environmental variability4,5. Here we derive a set of ecosystem functions6 from a dataset of surface gas exchange measurements across major terrestrial biomes. We find that most of the variability within ecosystem functions (71.8%) is captured by three key axes. The first axis reflects maximum ecosystem productivity and is mostly explained by vegetation structure. The second axis reflects ecosystem water-use strategies and is jointly explained by variation in vegetation height and climate. The third axis, which represents ecosystem carbon-use efficiency, features a gradient related to aridity, and is explained primarily by variation in vegetation structure. We show that two state-of-the-art land surface models reproduce the first and most important axis of ecosystem functions. However, the models tend to simulate more strongly correlated functions than those observed, which limits their ability to accurately predict the full range of responses to environmental changes in carbon, water and energy cycling in terrestrial ecosystems7,8.


Asunto(s)
Ciclo del Carbono , Ecosistema , Plantas/metabolismo , Ciclo Hidrológico , Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Clima , Conjuntos de Datos como Asunto , Humedad , Plantas/clasificación , Análisis de Componente Principal
3.
Nature ; 583(7814): 72-77, 2020 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32612223

RESUMEN

Forests provide a series of ecosystem services that are crucial to our society. In the European Union (EU), forests account for approximately 38% of the total land surface1. These forests are important carbon sinks, and their conservation efforts are vital for the EU's vision of achieving climate neutrality by 20502. However, the increasing demand for forest services and products, driven by the bioeconomy, poses challenges for sustainable forest management. Here we use fine-scale satellite data to observe an increase in the harvested forest area (49 per cent) and an increase in biomass loss (69 per cent) over Europe for the period of 2016-2018 relative to 2011-2015, with large losses occurring on the Iberian Peninsula and in the Nordic and Baltic countries. Satellite imagery further reveals that the average patch size of harvested area increased by 34 per cent across Europe, with potential effects on biodiversity, soil erosion and water regulation. The increase in the rate of forest harvest is the result of the recent expansion of wood markets, as suggested by econometric indicators on forestry, wood-based bioenergy and international trade. If such a high rate of forest harvest continues, the post-2020 EU vision of forest-based climate mitigation may be hampered, and the additional carbon losses from forests would require extra emission reductions in other sectors in order to reach climate neutrality by 20503.


Asunto(s)
Agricultura Forestal/estadística & datos numéricos , Agricultura Forestal/tendencias , Bosques , Biodiversidad , Biomasa , Secuestro de Carbono , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Política Ambiental/economía , Política Ambiental/legislación & jurisprudencia , Europa (Continente) , Unión Europea/economía , Agricultura Forestal/economía , Agricultura Forestal/legislación & jurisprudencia , Calentamiento Global/prevención & control , Historia del Siglo XXI , Imágenes Satelitales , Madera/economía
4.
Glob Chang Biol ; 29(6): 1628-1647, 2023 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36524280

RESUMEN

Climate change alters surface water availability (WA; precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P - ET) and consequently impacts agricultural production and societal water needs, leading to increasing concerns on the sustainability of water use. Although the direct effects of climate change on WA have long been recognized and assessed, indirect climate effects occurring through adjustments in terrestrial vegetation are more subtle and not yet fully quantified. To address this knowledge gap, here we investigate the interplay between climate-induced changes in leaf area index (LAI) and ET and quantify its ultimate effect on WA during the period 1982-2016 at the global scale, using an ensemble of data-driven products and land surface models. We show that ~44% of the global vegetated land has experienced a significant increase in growing season-averaged LAI and climate change explains 33.5% of this greening signal. Such climate-induced greening has enhanced ET of 0.051 ± 0.067 mm year-2 (mean ± SD), further amplifying the ongoing increase in ET directly driven by variations in climatic factors over 36.8% of the globe, and thus exacerbating the decline in WA prominently in drylands. These findings highlight the indirect impact of positive feedbacks in the land-climate system on the decline of WA, and call for an in-depth evaluation of these phenomena in the design of local mitigation and adaptation plans.


Asunto(s)
Agricultura , Agua , Cambio Climático , Hojas de la Planta , Estaciones del Año , Ecosistema
5.
Glob Chang Biol ; 29(21): 6040-6065, 2023 Nov.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37605971

RESUMEN

Insect and disease outbreaks in forests are biotic disturbances that can profoundly alter ecosystem dynamics. In many parts of the world, these disturbance regimes are intensifying as the climate changes and shifts the distribution of species and biomes. As a result, key forest ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration, regulation of water flows, wood production, protection of soils, and the conservation of biodiversity, could be increasingly compromised. Despite the relevance of these detrimental effects, there are currently no spatially detailed databases that record insect and disease disturbances on forests at the pan-European scale. Here, we present the new Database of European Forest Insect and Disease Disturbances (DEFID2). It comprises over 650,000 harmonized georeferenced records, mapped as polygons or points, of insects and disease disturbances that occurred between 1963 and 2021 in European forests. The records currently span eight different countries and were acquired through diverse methods (e.g., ground surveys, remote sensing techniques). The records in DEFID2 are described by a set of qualitative attributes, including severity and patterns of damage symptoms, agents, host tree species, climate-driven trigger factors, silvicultural practices, and eventual sanitary interventions. They are further complemented with a satellite-based quantitative characterization of the affected forest areas based on Landsat Normalized Burn Ratio time series, and damage metrics derived from them using the LandTrendr spectral-temporal segmentation algorithm (including onset, duration, magnitude, and rate of the disturbance), and possible interactions with windthrow and wildfire events. The DEFID2 database is a novel resource for many large-scale applications dealing with biotic disturbances. It offers a unique contribution to design networks of experiments, improve our understanding of ecological processes underlying biotic forest disturbances, monitor their dynamics, and enhance their representation in land-climate models. Further data sharing is encouraged to extend and improve the DEFID2 database continuously. The database is freely available at https://jeodpp.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ftp/jrc-opendata/FOREST/DISTURBANCES/DEFID2/.

7.
Glob Chang Biol ; 27(14): 3336-3349, 2021 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33910268

RESUMEN

The rising atmospheric CO2 concentration leads to a CO2 fertilization effect on plants-that is, increased photosynthetic uptake of CO2 by leaves and enhanced water-use efficiency (WUE). Yet, the resulting net impact of CO2 fertilization on plant growth and soil moisture (SM) savings at large scale is poorly understood. Drylands provide a natural experimental setting to detect the CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth since foliage amount, plant water-use and photosynthesis are all tightly coupled in water-limited ecosystems. A long-term change in the response of leaf area index (LAI, a measure of foliage amount) to changes in SM is likely to stem from changing water demand of primary productivity in water-limited ecosystems and is a proxy for changes in WUE. Using 34-year satellite observations of LAI and SM over tropical and subtropical drylands, we identify that a 1% increment in SM leads to 0.15% (±0.008, 95% confidence interval) and 0.51% (±0.01, 95% confidence interval) increments in LAI during 1982-1998 and 1999-2015, respectively. The increasing response of LAI to SM has contributed 7.2% (±3.0%, 95% confidence interval) to total dryland greening during 1999-2015 compared to 1982-1998. The increasing response of LAI to SM is consistent with the CO2 fertilization effect on WUE in water-limited ecosystems, indicating that a given amount of SM has sustained greater amounts of photosynthetic foliage over time. The LAI responses to changes in SM from seven dynamic global vegetation models are not always consistent with observations, highlighting the need for improved process knowledge of terrestrial ecosystem responses to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration.


Asunto(s)
Dióxido de Carbono , Ecosistema , Dióxido de Carbono/análisis , Fertilización , Fotosíntesis , Suelo
8.
Nature ; 514(7521): 213-7, 2014 Oct 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25252980

RESUMEN

The response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate change is among the largest uncertainties affecting future climate change projections. The feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate is partly determined by changes in the turnover time of carbon in land ecosystems, which in turn is an ecosystem property that emerges from the interplay between climate, soil and vegetation type. Here we present a global, spatially explicit and observation-based assessment of whole-ecosystem carbon turnover times that combines new estimates of vegetation and soil organic carbon stocks and fluxes. We find that the overall mean global carbon turnover time is 23(+7)(-4) years (95 per cent confidence interval). On average, carbon resides in the vegetation and soil near the Equator for a shorter time than at latitudes north of 75° north (mean turnover times of 15 and 255 years, respectively). We identify a clear dependence of the turnover time on temperature, as expected from our present understanding of temperature controls on ecosystem dynamics. Surprisingly, our analysis also reveals a similarly strong association between turnover time and precipitation. Moreover, we find that the ecosystem carbon turnover times simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate/carbon-cycle models vary widely and that numerical simulations, on average, tend to underestimate the global carbon turnover time by 36 per cent. The models show stronger spatial relationships with temperature than do observation-based estimates, but generally do not reproduce the strong relationships with precipitation and predict faster carbon turnover in many semi-arid regions. Our findings suggest that future climate/carbon-cycle feedbacks may depend more strongly on changes in the hydrological cycle than is expected at present and is considered in Earth system models.


Asunto(s)
Ciclo del Carbono , Carbono/metabolismo , Clima , Ecosistema , Biomasa , Retroalimentación , Hidrología , Modelos Teóricos , Plantas/metabolismo , Lluvia , Suelo/química , Temperatura , Factores de Tiempo , Ciclo Hidrológico
9.
Ecol Appl ; 29(2): e01837, 2019 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30549378

RESUMEN

The future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentration depends on the development of the terrestrial carbon sink, which in turn is influenced by forest dynamics under changing environmental conditions. An in-depth understanding of model sensitivities and uncertainties in non-steady-state conditions is necessary for reliable and robust projections of forest development and under scenarios of global warming and CO2 enrichment. Here, we systematically assessed if a biogeochemical process-based model (3D-CMCC-CNR), which embeds similarities with many other vegetation models, applied in simulating net primary productivity (NPP) and standing woody biomass (SWB), maintained a consistent sensitivity to its 55 input parameters through time, during forest ageing and structuring as well as under climate change scenarios. Overall, the model applied at three contrasting European forests showed low sensitivity to the majority of its parameters. Interestingly, model sensitivity to parameters varied through the course of >100 yr of simulations. In particular, the model showed a large responsiveness to the allometric parameters used for initialize forest carbon and nitrogen pools early in forest simulation (i.e., for NPP up to ~37%, 256 g C·m-2 ·yr-1 and for SWB up to ~90%, 65 Mg C/ha, when compared to standard simulation), with this sensitivity decreasing sharply during forest development. At medium to longer time scales, and under climate change scenarios, the model became increasingly more sensitive to additional and/or different parameters controlling biomass accumulation and autotrophic respiration (i.e., for NPP up to ~30%, 167 g C·m-2 ·yr-1 and for SWB up to ~24%, 64 Mg C/ha, when compared to standard simulation). Interestingly, model outputs were shown to be more sensitive to parameters and processes controlling stand development rather than to climate change (i.e., warming and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration) itself although model sensitivities were generally higher under climate change scenarios. Our results suggest the need for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses that cover multiple temporal scales along forest developmental stages to better assess the potential of future forests to act as a global terrestrial carbon sink.


Asunto(s)
Carbono , Cambio Climático , Biomasa , Ciclo del Carbono , Bosques
10.
Nature ; 487(7408): 472-6, 2012 Jul 26.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22722862

RESUMEN

Ecosystem respiration is the biotic conversion of organic carbon to carbon dioxide by all of the organisms in an ecosystem, including both consumers and primary producers. Respiration exhibits an exponential temperature dependence at the subcellular and individual levels, but at the ecosystem level respiration can be modified by many variables including community abundance and biomass, which vary substantially among ecosystems. Despite its importance for predicting the responses of the biosphere to climate change, it is as yet unknown whether the temperature dependence of ecosystem respiration varies systematically between aquatic and terrestrial environments. Here we use the largest database of respiratory measurements yet compiled to show that the sensitivity of ecosystem respiration to seasonal changes in temperature is remarkably similar for diverse environments encompassing lakes, rivers, estuaries, the open ocean and forested and non-forested terrestrial ecosystems, with an average activation energy similar to that of the respiratory complex (approximately 0.65 electronvolts (eV)). By contrast, annual ecosystem respiration shows a substantially greater temperature dependence across aquatic (approximately 0.65 eV) versus terrestrial ecosystems (approximately 0.32 eV) that span broad geographic gradients in temperature. Using a model derived from metabolic theory, these findings can be reconciled by similarities in the biochemical kinetics of metabolism at the subcellular level, and fundamental differences in the importance of other variables besides temperature­such as primary productivity and allochthonous carbon inputs­on the structure of aquatic and terrestrial biota at the community level.


Asunto(s)
Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Carbono/metabolismo , Ecosistema , Calentamiento Global , Consumo de Oxígeno , Temperatura , Animales , Biomasa , Biota , Respiración de la Célula , Recolección de Datos , Humanos , Cinética , Lagos , Biología Marina , Fotosíntesis , Ríos , Estaciones del Año , Agua de Mar , Factores de Tiempo , Árboles/metabolismo
11.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 112(15): 4594-9, 2015 Apr 14.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25831506

RESUMEN

Significant climate risks are associated with a positive carbon-temperature feedback in northern latitude carbon-rich ecosystems, making an accurate analysis of human impacts on the net greenhouse gas balance of wetlands a priority. Here, we provide a coherent assessment of the climate footprint of a network of wetland sites based on simultaneous and quasi-continuous ecosystem observations of CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Experimental areas are located both in natural and in managed wetlands and cover a wide range of climatic regions, ecosystem types, and management practices. Based on direct observations we predict that sustained CH4 emissions in natural ecosystems are in the long term (i.e., several centuries) typically offset by CO2 uptake, although with large spatiotemporal variability. Using a space-for-time analogy across ecological and climatic gradients, we represent the chronosequence from natural to managed conditions to quantify the "cost" of CH4 emissions for the benefit of net carbon sequestration. With a sustained pulse-response radiative forcing model, we found a significant increase in atmospheric forcing due to land management, in particular for wetland converted to cropland. Our results quantify the role of human activities on the climate footprint of northern wetlands and call for development of active mitigation strategies for managed wetlands and new guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) accounting for both sustained CH4 emissions and cumulative CO2 exchange.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Clima , Ecosistema , Humedales , Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Ecología/métodos , Geografía , Actividades Humanas , Humanos , Metano/metabolismo , Modelos Teóricos , Óxido Nitroso/metabolismo , Plantas/clasificación , Plantas/metabolismo , Temperatura , Incertidumbre
12.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 112(9): 2788-93, 2015 Mar 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25730847

RESUMEN

Terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) varies greatly over time and space. A better understanding of this variability is necessary for more accurate predictions of the future climate-carbon cycle feedback. Recent studies have suggested that variability in GPP is driven by a broad range of biotic and abiotic factors operating mainly through changes in vegetation phenology and physiological processes. However, it is still unclear how plant phenology and physiology can be integrated to explain the spatiotemporal variability of terrestrial GPP. Based on analyses of eddy-covariance and satellite-derived data, we decomposed annual terrestrial GPP into the length of the CO2 uptake period (CUP) and the seasonal maximal capacity of CO2 uptake (GPPmax). The product of CUP and GPPmax explained >90% of the temporal GPP variability in most areas of North America during 2000-2010 and the spatial GPP variation among globally distributed eddy flux tower sites. It also explained GPP response to the European heatwave in 2003 (r(2) = 0.90) and GPP recovery after a fire disturbance in South Dakota (r(2) = 0.88). Additional analysis of the eddy-covariance flux data shows that the interbiome variation in annual GPP is better explained by that in GPPmax than CUP. These findings indicate that terrestrial GPP is jointly controlled by ecosystem-level plant phenology and photosynthetic capacity, and greater understanding of GPPmax and CUP responses to environmental and biological variations will, thus, improve predictions of GPP over time and space.


Asunto(s)
Ecosistema , Modelos Biológicos , Fenómenos Fisiológicos de las Plantas , Plantas , South Dakota
13.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 111(14): E1327-33, 2014 Apr 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24706867

RESUMEN

Photosynthesis is the process by which plants harvest sunlight to produce sugars from carbon dioxide and water. It is the primary source of energy for all life on Earth; hence it is important to understand how this process responds to climate change and human impact. However, model-based estimates of gross primary production (GPP, output from photosynthesis) are highly uncertain, in particular over heavily managed agricultural areas. Recent advances in spectroscopy enable the space-based monitoring of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from terrestrial plants. Here we demonstrate that spaceborne SIF retrievals provide a direct measure of the GPP of cropland and grassland ecosystems. Such a strong link with crop photosynthesis is not evident for traditional remotely sensed vegetation indices, nor for more complex carbon cycle models. We use SIF observations to provide a global perspective on agricultural productivity. Our SIF-based crop GPP estimates are 50-75% higher than results from state-of-the-art carbon cycle models over, for example, the US Corn Belt and the Indo-Gangetic Plain, implying that current models severely underestimate the role of management. Our results indicate that SIF data can help us improve our global models for more accurate projections of agricultural productivity and climate impact on crop yields. Extension of our approach to other ecosystems, along with increased observational capabilities for SIF in the near future, holds the prospect of reducing uncertainties in the modeling of the current and future carbon cycle.


Asunto(s)
Clorofila/fisiología , Productos Agrícolas/fisiología , Fotosíntesis , Fluorescencia , Modelos Teóricos
14.
Nature ; 467(7318): 951-4, 2010 Oct 21.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20935626

RESUMEN

More than half of the solar energy absorbed by land surfaces is currently used to evaporate water. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and to alter evapotranspiration, with implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration changes may already be under way, but direct observational constraints are lacking at the global scale. Until such evidence is available, changes in the water cycle on land−a key diagnostic criterion of the effects of climate change and variability−remain uncertain. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of global land evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2008, compiled using a global monitoring network, meteorological and remote-sensing observations, and a machine-learning algorithm. In addition, we have assessed evapotranspiration variations over the same time period using an ensemble of process-based land-surface models. Our results suggest that global annual evapotranspiration increased on average by 7.1 ± 1.0 millimetres per year per decade from 1982 to 1997. After that, coincident with the last major El Niño event in 1998, the global evapotranspiration increase seems to have ceased until 2008. This change was driven primarily by moisture limitation in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly Africa and Australia. In these regions, microwave satellite observations indicate that soil moisture decreased from 1998 to 2008. Hence, increasing soil-moisture limitations on evapotranspiration largely explain the recent decline of the global land-evapotranspiration trend. Whether the changing behaviour of evapotranspiration is representative of natural climate variability or reflects a more permanent reorganization of the land water cycle is a key question for earth system science.


Asunto(s)
Atmósfera/química , Agua Dulce/análisis , Calentamiento Global , Transpiración de Plantas/fisiología , Ciclo Hidrológico , Inteligencia Artificial , Calentamiento Global/estadística & datos numéricos , Historia del Siglo XX , Historia del Siglo XXI , Humedad , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Estaciones del Año , Suelo/análisis , Incertidumbre , Volatilización
15.
Glob Chang Biol ; 21(1): 363-76, 2015 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24990223

RESUMEN

Understanding the environmental and biotic drivers of respiration at the ecosystem level is a prerequisite to further improve scenarios of the global carbon cycle. In this study we investigated the relevance of physiological phenology, defined as seasonal changes in plant physiological properties, for explaining the temporal dynamics of ecosystem respiration (RECO) in deciduous forests. Previous studies showed that empirical RECO models can be substantially improved by considering the biotic dependency of RECO on the short-term productivity (e.g., daily gross primary production, GPP) in addition to the well-known environmental controls of temperature and water availability. Here, we use a model-data integration approach to investigate the added value of physiological phenology, represented by the first temporal derivative of GPP, or alternatively of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, for modeling RECO at 19 deciduous broadleaved forests in the FLUXNET La Thuile database. The new data-oriented semiempirical model leads to an 8% decrease in root mean square error (RMSE) and a 6% increase in the modeling efficiency (EF) of modeled RECO when compared to a version of the model that does not consider the physiological phenology. The reduction of the model-observation bias occurred mainly at the monthly time scale, and in spring and summer, while a smaller reduction was observed at the annual time scale. The proposed approach did not improve the model performance at several sites, and we identified as potential causes the plant canopy heterogeneity and the use of air temperature as a driver of ecosystem respiration instead of soil temperature. However, in the majority of sites the model-error remained unchanged regardless of the driving temperature. Overall, our results point toward the potential for improving current approaches for modeling RECO in deciduous forests by including the phenological cycle of the canopy.


Asunto(s)
Atmósfera/química , Ecosistema , Bosques , Modelos Biológicos , Fenómenos Fisiológicos de las Plantas , Estaciones del Año , Europa (Continente) , América del Norte , Fotosíntesis/fisiología
16.
Glob Chang Biol ; 20(10): 3103-21, 2014 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24909755

RESUMEN

Determining the spatial and temporal distribution of terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is a critical step in closing the Earth's carbon budget. Dynamical global vegetation models (DGVMs) provide mechanistic insight into GPP variability but diverge in predicting the response to climate in poorly investigated regions. Recent advances in the remote sensing of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) opens up a new possibility to provide direct global observational constraints for GPP. Here, we apply an optimal estimation approach to infer the global distribution of GPP from an ensemble of eight DGVMs constrained by global measurements of SIF from the Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). These estimates are compared to flux tower data in N. America, Europe, and tropical S. America, with careful consideration of scale differences between models, GOSAT, and flux towers. Assimilation of GOSAT SIF with DGVMs causes a redistribution of global productivity from northern latitudes to the tropics of 7-8 Pg C yr(-1) from 2010 to 2012, with reduced GPP in northern forests (~3.6 Pg C yr(-1) ) and enhanced GPP in tropical forests (~3.7 Pg C yr(-1) ). This leads to improvements in the structure of the seasonal cycle, including earlier dry season GPP loss and enhanced peak-to-trough GPP in tropical forests within the Amazon Basin and reduced growing season length in northern croplands and deciduous forests. Uncertainty in predicted GPP (estimated from the spread of DGVMs) is reduced by 40-70% during peak productivity suggesting the assimilation of GOSAT SIF with models is well-suited for benchmarking. We conclude that satellite fluorescence augurs a new opportunity to quantify the GPP response to climate drivers and the potential to constrain predictions of carbon cycle evolution.


Asunto(s)
Clorofila/análisis , Clorofila/metabolismo , Clima , Monitoreo del Ambiente/métodos , Plantas/metabolismo , Ciclo del Carbono , Europa (Continente) , Fluorescencia , Modelos Teóricos , América del Norte , Fotosíntesis , Estaciones del Año , América del Sur , Nave Espacial , Luz Solar
17.
Nat Commun ; 15(1): 1500, 2024 Feb 19.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38374331

RESUMEN

Although elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) has substantial indirect effects on vegetation carbon uptake via associated climate change, their dynamics remain unclear. Here we investigate how the impacts of eCO2-driven climate change on growing-season gross primary production have changed globally during 1982-2014, using satellite observations and Earth system models, and evaluate their evolution until the year 2100. We show that the initial positive effect of eCO2-induced climate change on vegetation carbon uptake has declined recently, shifting to negative in the early 21st century. Such emerging pattern appears prominent in high latitudes and occurs in combination with a decrease of direct CO2 physiological effect, ultimately resulting in a sharp reduction of the current growth benefits induced by climate warming and CO2 fertilization. Such weakening of the indirect CO2 effect can be partially attributed to the widespread land drying, and it is expected to be further exacerbated under global warming.

18.
Plant Cell Environ ; 36(8): 1547-63, 2013 Aug.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23489212

RESUMEN

Measured profiles of photosynthetic capacity in plant crowns typically do not match those of average irradiance: the ratio of capacity to irradiance decreases as irradiance increases. This differs from optimal profiles inferred from simple models. To determine whether this could be explained by omission of physiological or physical details from such models, we performed a series of thought experiments using a new model that included more realism than previous models. We used ray-tracing to simulate irradiance for 8000 leaves in a horizontally uniform canopy. For a subsample of 500 leaves, we simultaneously optimized both nitrogen allocation (among pools representing carboxylation, electron transport and light capture) and stomatal conductance using a transdermally explicit photosynthesis model. Few model features caused the capacity/irradiance ratio to vary systematically with irradiance. However, when leaf absorptance varied as needed to optimize distribution of light-capture N, the capacity/irradiance ratio increased up through the crown - that is, opposite to the observed pattern. This tendency was counteracted by constraints on stomatal or mesophyll conductance, which caused chloroplastic CO(2) concentration to decline systematically with increasing irradiance. Our results suggest that height-related constraints on stomatal conductance can help to reconcile observations with the hypothesis that photosynthetic N is allocated optimally.


Asunto(s)
Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Simulación por Computador , Nitrógeno/metabolismo , Fotosíntesis/fisiología , Transpiración de Plantas/fisiología , Luz , Fotosíntesis/efectos de la radiación , Hojas de la Planta/fisiología , Hojas de la Planta/efectos de la radiación , Estomas de Plantas/fisiología , Estomas de Plantas/efectos de la radiación , Transpiración de Plantas/efectos de la radiación , Plantas/efectos de la radiación , Árboles
19.
Science ; 380(6646): 749-753, 2023 05 19.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37200428

RESUMEN

Carbon storage in forests is a cornerstone of policy-making to prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5°C. However, the global impact of management (for example, harvesting) on the carbon budget of forests remains poorly quantified. We integrated global maps of forest biomass and management with machine learning to show that by removing human intervention, under current climatic conditions and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, existing global forests could increase their aboveground biomass by up to 44.1 (error range: 21.0 to 63.0) petagrams of carbon. This is an increase of 15 to 16% over current levels, equating to about 4 years of current anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Therefore, without strong reductions in emissions, this strategy holds low mitigation potential, and the forest sink should be preserved to offset residual carbon emissions rather than to compensate for present emissions levels.


Asunto(s)
Efectos Antropogénicos , Dióxido de Carbono , Secuestro de Carbono , Bosques , Humanos , Biomasa , Calentamiento Global/prevención & control , Árboles
20.
Nat Commun ; 14(1): 2903, 2023 May 22.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37217522

RESUMEN

The population experiencing high temperatures in cities is rising due to anthropogenic climate change, settlement expansion, and population growth. Yet, efficient tools to evaluate potential intervention strategies to reduce population exposure to Land Surface Temperature (LST) extremes are still lacking. Here, we implement a spatial regression model based on remote sensing data that is able to assess the population exposure to LST extremes in urban environments across 200 cities based on surface properties like vegetation cover and distance to water bodies. We define exposure as the number of days per year where LST exceeds a given threshold multiplied by the total urban population exposed, in person ⋅ day. Our findings reveal that urban vegetation plays a considerable role in decreasing the exposure of the urban population to LST extremes. We show that targeting high-exposure areas reduces vegetation needed for the same decrease in exposure compared to uniform treatment.

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