Multi-scale trend analysis of water quality using error propagation of generalized additive models.

Effective stewardship of ecosystems to sustain current ecological status or mitigate impacts requires nuanced understanding of how conditions have changed over time in response to anthropogenic pressures and natural variability. Detecting and appropriately characterizing changes requires accurate and flexible trend assessment methods that can be readily applied to environmental monitoring datasets. A key requirement is complete propagation of uncertainty through the analysis. However, this is difficult when there are mismatches between sampling frequency, period of record, and trends of interest. Here, we propose a novel application of generalized additive models (GAMs) for characterizing multi-decadal changes in water quality indicators and demonstrate its utility by analyzing a 30-year record of biweekly-to-monthly chlorophyll-a concentrations in the San Francisco Estuary. GAMs have shown promise in water quality trend analysis to separate long-term (i.e., annual or decadal) trends from seasonal variation. Our proposed methods estimate seasonal averages in a response variable with GAMs, extract uncertainty measures for the seasonal estimates, and then use the uncertainty measures with mixed-effects meta-analysis regression to quantify inter-annual trends that account for full propagation of error across methods. We first demonstrate that nearly identical descriptions of temporal changes can be obtained using different smoothing spline formulations of the original time series. We then extract seasonal averages and their standard errors for an a priori time period within each year from the GAM results. Finally, we demonstrate how across-year trends in seasonal averages can be modeled with mixed-effects meta-analysis regression that propagates uncertainties from the GAM fits to the across-year analysis. Overall, this approach leverages GAMs to smooth data with missing observations or varying sample effort across years to estimate seasonal averages and meta-analysis to estimate trends across years. Methods are provided in the wqtrends R package.

Influence of local and regional drivers on spatial and temporal variation of ammonia-oxidizing communities in Gulf of Mexico salt marshes.

We characterized ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) and bacteria (AOB) from salt marsh sediments in the Gulf of Mexico over 5 years to identify environmental drivers of nitrifying community patterns following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Samples were collected from oiled and unoiled sites in July of 2012-2016 from 12 marshes spanning three regions on the Louisiana coast. No consistent oil effect was detected for either AOA or AOB abundance or community composition. At the local scale, abundance was correlated with changes in marsh elevation, suggesting that oxygen may be an important driver. Regional differences in abundance were best explained by salinity and soil moisture, while interannual variation may be more linked to changes in climate and Mississippi River discharge. Variation of AOA communities was correlated with organic sediment nutrients, while AOB communities were correlated with soil extractable nutrients. AOA and AOB diversity and AOB abundance decreased in 2014 in all regions, suggesting that broad-scale drivers, such as climate, may explain synchronous shifts throughout the coastal area. Our results provide insights about large-scale disturbances on nitrifying microbes in the Gulf of Mexico, and suggest that nitrogen cycling may be controlled primarily by local factors, but large-scale drivers might override these localized differences at times.

Antimony and arsenic exhibit contrasting spatial distributions in the sediment and vegetation of a contaminated wetland.

Antimony is a priority environmental contaminant that is relatively poorly studied compared to other trace metal(loid)s. In particular, the behaviour of antimony in wetland sediments, where anaerobic conditions often dominate, has received considerably less attention compared to well-drained terrestrial soil environments. Here we report the results of a spatial assessment of antimony in the sediments and vegetation of a freshwater wetland exposed to stibnite tailings for the past forty years. The concentration of antimony in the sediment decreased rapidly with distance from the tailings deposit, from a maximum of ∼22,000 mg kg-1 to ∼1000 mg kg-1 at a distance of ∼150 m. In contrast, arsenic was distributed more evenly across the wetland, indicating that it was more mobile under the prevailing hypoxic/anoxic conditions. Less clear trends were observed in the tissues of wetland plants, with the concentrations of antimony in waterlilies (2.5-195 mg kg-1) showing no clear trends with distance from the tailings deposit, and no correlation with sediment concentrations. Sedges and Melaleuca sp. trees had lower antimony concentrations (<25 mg kg-1 and 5 mg kg-1, respectively) compared to waterlilies, but showed a non-significant trend of higher concentrations closer to the tailings. For all vegetation types sampled, antimony concentrations were consistently lower than arsenic concentrations (Sb:As = 0.27-0.31), despite higher concentrations of antimony in the sediment. Overall, the results of this study highlight clear differences in the behaviour of antimony and arsenic in freshwater wetlands, which should be considered during the management and remediation of such sites.

Decomposition of jellyfish carrion in situ: Short-term impacts on infauna, benthic nutrient fluxes and sediment redox conditions.

Jellyfish often form blooms that persist for weeks to months before they collapse en masse, resulting in the sudden release of large amounts of organic matter to the environment. This study investigated the biogeochemical and ecological effects of the decomposition of jellyfish in a shallow coastal lagoon in New South Wales, Australia. Catostylus mosaicus carrion was added to the surface of shallow sub-tidal sediments and biogeochemical parameters and macrofaunal abundance immediately below the jellyfish carrion were measured over three days. Sediment plots without jellyfish served as controls. Sediment oxygen demand and carbon and nitrogen efflux increased by up to 60-fold in the jellyfish plots, compared to control plots, and dissolved organic nutrient fluxes were more sustained than in previous studies due to the use of fresh rather than frozen biomass. The decomposing jellyfish progressively altered sediment redox conditions, indicated by an increase in porewater iron (II) and sulfide concentrations measured by high-resolution in situ diffusive samplers. Abundance of some macrofaunal taxa in the jellyfish plots decreased relative to controls, however, the abundance of a carnivorous gastropod, which was presumably feeding on the carrion, increased in the jellyfish plots. While jellyfish carrion may be a food source for some macrofauna, low oxygen conditions coupled with the accumulation of toxic dissolved sulfides in the near-surface sediments may explain the overall change in the macroinfaunal community.