Risk Factors for Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Associated Community Deaths in Zambian Infants.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of infant deaths. Its epidemiology in low- and middle-income countries is poorly understood. Risk factors associated with RSV-associated infant deaths that occur in community settings are incompletely known. METHODS: Community deaths for infants aged 4 days to 6 months were identified during a 3-year postmortem RSV prevalence study at the main city morgue in Lusaka, Zambia, where 80% of deaths are registered. This analysis focuses on the subset of deaths for which an abbreviated verbal autopsy was available and intended to sort deaths into respiratory or nonrespiratory causes by clinical adjudication. Posterior nasopharyngeal swab samples were collected within 48 hours of death and tested for RSV using quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. Associations between potential risk factors were determined as relative risks with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: We prospectively enrolled 798 community infant deaths with verbal autopsies and RSV laboratory results, of which 62 results were positive. The mean age of the infants was 10 weeks, and 41.4% of them were male. Of all deaths, 44% were attributed to respiratory causes. RSV was detected in 7.8% of the community infants and was significantly associated with respiratory deaths (risk ratio, 4.0 [95% CI, 2.2-7.1]). Compared with older infants, those aged 0-8 weeks had a 2.83 (95% CI, 1.30-6.15) increased risk of dying with RSV. The risk of RSV for the 0-8-week age group increased to 5.24 (1.56-33.14) with adjustment for demographics, parental education, and geography. RSV deaths were increased with domiciliary overcrowding and were concentrated in poor and dense neighborhoods in Lusaka (risk ratio, 2.00 [95% CI, 1.22-3.27]). CONCLUSION: RSV is a significant contributor to community respiratory deaths in this population, particularly in the first 3 months of life and in the more poor and dense parts of Lusaka.

Association of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection and Underlying Risk Factors for Death Among Young Infants Who Died at University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections and child mortality. While RSV disease burden is highest in low- and middle-income countries, most knowledge about risk factors for fatal RSV disease comes from high-income settings. METHODS: Among infants aged 4 days to <6 months who died at University Teaching Hospital in Lusaka, Zambia, we tested nasopharyngeal swabs obtained postmortem for RSV using reverse transcriptase-quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Through a systematic review of death certificates and hospital records, we identified 10 broad categories of underlying medical conditions associated with infant deaths. We used backward-selection models to calculate adjusted and unadjusted risk ratios (RRs) for the association between each underlying condition and RSV status. RESULTS: From 720 infant deaths, 6% (44) were RSV-positive, 70% were <4 weeks old, and 54% were male. At least 1 underlying condition was found in 85% of infants, while 63% had ≥2. Prematurity/low birth weight (53% [384]) and complications of labor and delivery (32% [230]) were the most common conditions. Congenital cardiac conditions were significantly associated with an increased risk of RSV infection (4%, 32; adjusted RR: 3.57; 95% CI: 1.71-7.44). No other underlying conditions were significantly associated with RSV. CONCLUSIONS: Other than congenital cardiac conditions, we found a lack of association between RSV and underlying risk factors. This differs from high-income settings, where RSV mortality is concentrated among high-risk infants. In this population, birth-related outcomes are the highest mortality risk factors. Improved neonatal care remains crucial in the fight against neonatal mortality.

Infant deaths from respiratory syncytial virus in Lusaka, Zambia from the ZPRIME study: a 3-year, systematic, post-mortem surveillance project.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections and a key driver of childhood mortality. Previous RSV burden of disease estimates used hospital-based surveillance data and modelled, rather than directly measured, community deaths. Given this uncertainty, we conducted a 3-year post-mortem prevalence study among young infants at a busy morgue in Lusaka, Zambia-the Zambia Pertussis RSV Infant Mortality Estimation (ZPRIME) study. METHODS: Infants were eligible for inclusion if they were aged between 4 days and less than 6 months and were enrolled within 48 h of death. Enrolment occurred mainly at the University Teaching Hospital of the University of Zambia Medical School (Lusaka, Zambia), the largest teaching hospital in Zambia. We extracted demographic and clinical data from medical charts and official death certificates, and we conducted verbal autopsies with the guardian or next of kin. RSV was identified using reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR and stratified by age, time of year, and setting (community vs facility deaths). By combining the PCR prevalence data with syndromic presentation, we estimated the proportion of all infant deaths that were due to RSV. FINDINGS: The ZPRIME study ran from Aug 31, 2017, to Aug 31, 2020, except for from April 1 to May 6, 2020, during which data were not collected due to restrictions on human research at this time (linked to COVID-19). We enrolled 2286 deceased infants, representing 79% of total infant deaths in Lusaka. RSV was detected in 162 (7%) of 2286 deceased infants. RSV was detected in 102 (9%) of 1176 community deaths, compared with 10 (4%) of 236 early facility deaths (<48 h from admission) and 36 (5%) of 737 late facility deaths (≥48 h from admission). RSV deaths were concentrated in infants younger than 3 months (116 [72%] of 162 infants), and were clustered in the first half of each year and in the poorest and most densely populated Lusaka townships. RSV caused at least 2·8% (95% CI 1·0-4·6) of all infant deaths and 4·7% (1·3-8·1) of community deaths. INTERPRETATION: RSV was a major seasonal cause of overall infant mortality, particularly among infants younger than 3 months of age. Because most RSV deaths occurred in the community and would have been missed through hospital-based surveillance, the global burden of fatal RSV has probably been underestimated. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

What is the prevalence of COVID-19 detection by PCR among deceased individuals in Lusaka, Zambia? A postmortem surveillance study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence of COVID-19 postmortem setting in Lusaka, Zambia. DESIGN: A systematic, postmortem prevalence study. SETTING: A busy, inner-city morgue in Lusaka. PARTICIPANTS: We sampled a random subset of all decedents who transited the University Teaching Hospital morgue. We sampled the posterior nasopharynx of decedents using quantitative PCR. Prevalence was weighted to account for age-specific enrolment strategies. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable-this was an observational study. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: Prevalence of COVID-19 detections by PCR. Results were stratified by setting (facility vs community deaths), age, demographics and geography and time. SECONDARY OUTCOMES: Shifts in viral variants; causal inferences based on cycle threshold values and other features; antemortem testing rates. RESULTS: From 1118 decedents enrolled between January and June 2021, COVID-19 was detected among 32.0% (358/1116). Roughly four COVID-19+ community deaths occurred for every facility death. Antemortem testing occurred for 52.6% (302/574) of facility deaths but only 1.8% (10/544) of community deaths and overall, only ~10% of COVID-19+ deaths were identified in life. During peak transmission periods, COVID-19 was detected in ~90% of all deaths. We observed three waves of transmission that peaked in July 2020, January 2021 and ~June 2021: the AE.1 lineage and the Beta and Delta variants, respectively. PCR signals were strongest among those whose deaths were deemed 'probably due to COVID-19', and weakest among children, with an age-dependent increase in PCR signal intensity. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 was common among deceased individuals in Lusaka. Antemortem testing was rarely done, and almost never for community deaths. Suspicion that COVID-19 was the cause of deaths was highest for those with a respiratory syndrome and lowest for individuals <19 years.