Systematic evaluation and external validation of 22 prognostic models among hospitalised adults with COVID-19: an observational cohort study.

The number of proposed prognostic models for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is growing rapidly, but it is unknown whether any are suitable for widespread clinical implementation.We independently externally validated the performance of candidate prognostic models, identified through a living systematic review, among consecutive adults admitted to hospital with a final diagnosis of COVID-19. We reconstructed candidate models as per original descriptions and evaluated performance for their original intended outcomes using predictors measured at the time of admission. We assessed discrimination, calibration and net benefit, compared to the default strategies of treating all and no patients, and against the most discriminating predictors in univariable analyses.We tested 22 candidate prognostic models among 411 participants with COVID-19, of whom 180 (43.8%) and 115 (28.0%) met the endpoints of clinical deterioration and mortality, respectively. Highest areas under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves were achieved by the NEWS2 score for prediction of deterioration over 24 h (0.78, 95% CI 0.73-0.83), and a novel model for prediction of deterioration <14 days from admission (0.78, 95% CI 0.74-0.82). The most discriminating univariable predictors were admission oxygen saturation on room air for in-hospital deterioration (AUROC 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81), and age for in-hospital mortality (AUROC 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81). No prognostic model demonstrated consistently higher net benefit than these univariable predictors, across a range of threshold probabilities.Admission oxygen saturation on room air and patient age are strong predictors of deterioration and mortality among hospitalised adults with COVID-19, respectively. None of the prognostic models evaluated here offered incremental value for patient stratification to these univariable predictors.

Advising the immunocompromised traveller: a review of immunocompromise at The London Hospital for Tropical Diseases Travel Clinic between 1st April 2019 and 30th April 2020.

BACKGROUND: Immunocompromised travellers (ICTs) face greater infectious and non-infectious travel-associated risks than their immunocompetent counterparts. Increasing travel and emergence of novel immunosuppressants poses great challenges for travel medicine practitioners to confidently provide up-to-date evidence-based risk management advice and pre-travel care for ICTs. METHODS: We reviewed the records of ICTs attending the London Hospital for Tropical Diseases (HTD) Travel Clinic between 1st April 2019 and 30th April 2020 with the aim to describe demographic and travel characteristics, type, and severity of immunocompromise, the degree of risk associated with intended travel and evaluate travel advice. RESULTS: Of the 193 ICTs identified, immunocompromise was due to physiological reasons (42%), chronic infection (17.1%) and immunosuppressive therapy (16.6%). Median age was 38 (range 9 months to 84 years) and male to female ratio 0.75 (83:110). Travel was intended to 80 countries for a median of 16 days (range 2 to 3167), predominantly for leisure (53%), non-medical work (17%) and visiting friends and relatives (12%). Live vaccine safety dominated discussion in the pre-travel consultation. Existing guidelines arguably fell short in dealing with travel risks associated with hyper-specific conditions, targeted immunosuppressants and non-vaccine preventable infections. CONCLUSIONS: Our cohort represents a wide spectrum of immunocompromise, for whom we arguably need more measurable ways to approach travel-associated risks. We propose prospective qualitative participatory research to inform our unit of the priorities of ICTs in the pre-travel consultation. We further recommend the formation of a repository of specialists and formulary of complex cases to direct subsequent informative systematic review and prospective risk studies.

Tolperisone hydrochloride improves motor functions in Parkinson's disease via MMP-9 inhibition and by downregulating p38 MAPK and ERK1/2 signaling cascade.

The mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling pathway, particularly the p38 MAPK and ERK1/2, has been implicated in the pathogenesis of Parkinson's disease (PD). Recent studies have shown that MAPK signaling pathway can influence the expression of matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9), known for its involvement in various physiological and pathological processes, including neurodegenerative diseases. This study explores the modulation of MMP-9 expression via the MAPK/ERK signaling cascade and its potential therapeutic implications in the context of PD-associated motor dysfunction. Here, tolperisone hydrochloride (TL), a muscle relaxant that blocks voltage-gated sodium and calcium channels, was used as a treatment to observe its effect on MAPK signaling and MMP-9 expression. Rotenone (RT) exposure in mice resulted in a significant reduction in substantia nigra and primary motor cortex neurons, which were further evidenced by impairments in motor function. When TL was administered, neuron count was restored (89.0 ± 4.78 vs 117.0 ± 4.46/mm2), and most of the motor dysfunction was alleviated. Mechanistically, TL reduced the protein expression of phospho-p38MAPK (1.06 fold vs 1.00 fold) and phospho-ERK1/2 (1.16 fold vs 1.02 fold), leading to the inhibition of MAPK signaling, as well as reduced MMP-9 concentrations (2.76 ± 0.10 vs 1.94 ± 0.10 ng/mL) in the process of rescuing RT-induced neuronal cell death and motor dysfunction. Computational analysis further revealed TL's potential inhibitory properties against MMP-9 along with N and L-type calcium channels. These findings shed light on TL's neuroprotective effects via MMP-9 inhibition and MAPK signaling downregulation, offering potential therapeutic avenues for PD-associated motor dysfunction.

Disparities in Outcomes of Hospitalizations Due to Multiple Myeloma: A Nationwide Comparison.

Background With the advent of novel treatments, there is a declining trend in the multiple myeloma (MM) mortality rate with an increasing hospitalization rate. However, there is limited population-based data on trends and outcomes of hospitalizations due to MM in the United States (US). Methods We analyzed the publicly available Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) from 2007 to 2017 to identify MM hospitalizations. Results Hospitalizations for MM increased from 17,100 (8.71%) in 2007 to 19,490 (9.92%) in 2017. The in-hospital mortality rate declined from 8.4% in 2007 to 4.9% in 2017 (P <0.001) and discharge to facilities decreased from 20.4% in 2007 to 17.4% in 2017 (P <0.001). The odds of in-hospital mortality were higher with increasing age (odds ratio (OR): 1.46; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.38 -1.54; P <0.0001), pneumonia (OR: 4.18; 95% CI: 3.63 - 4.81, P <0.0001), septicemia (OR: 2.50; 95% CI: 2.22 - 2.82; P <0.0001), renal failure (OR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.34 -1.64; P <0.0001), uninsured/self-pay insurance status (OR: 2.69; 95% CI: 2.18 - 3.3; P <0.0001), rural hospital (OR: 2.26; 95% CI: 1.88 -2.72; P<0.0001), and urban-non-teaching hospitals (OR: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.23 - 1.56; P <0.0001). Also, increasing age (OR: 1.14; 95% CI: 1.11-1.18, P <0.0001), Black race (OR: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.02-1.23, P <0.0001), and multiple comorbidities were associated with higher disability. Conclusion Hospitalizations for MM continued to increase, whereas in-hospital mortality continued to decrease. Advanced age, sepsis, pneumonia, and renal failure were associated with higher odds of mortality in MM patients.