A data-driven approach to multiple-stressor impact assessment for a marine protected area.

The coastal environment is not managed in a way that considers the impact of cumulative threats, despite being subject to threats from all realms (marine, land, and atmosphere). Relationships between threats and species are often nonlinear; thus, current (linear) approaches to estimating the impact of threats may be misleading. We developed a data-driven approach to assessing cumulative impacts on ecosystems and applied it to explore nonlinear relationships between threats and a temperate reef fish community. We used data on water quality, commercial fishing, climate change, and indicators of recreational fishing and urbanization to build a cumulative threat map of the northern region in New South Wales, Australia. We used statistical models of fish abundance to quantify associations among threats and biophysical covariates and predicted where cumulative impacts are likely to have the greatest impact on fish. We also assessed the performance of no-take zones (NTZs), to protect fish from cumulative threats across 2 marine protected area networks (marine parks). Fishing had a greater impact on fish than water quality threats (i.e., percent increase above the mean for invertivores was 337% when fishing was removed and was 11% above the mean when water quality was removed inside NTZs), and fishing outside NTZs affected fish abundances inside NTZs. Quantifying the spatial influence of multiple threats enables managers to understand the multitude of management actions required to address threats.

Una estrategia basada en datos para la evaluación de impacto de múltiples estresores en un área marina protegida Resumen Los ambientes costeros no se manejan de manera que se considere el impacto de las amenazas acumulativas, a pesar de que se enfrentan a amenazas de todos los entornos (marinas, terrestres y atmosféricas). Las relaciones entre las amenazas y las especies casi siempre son no lineales; por lo tanto, las estrategias actuales (lineales) para estimar el impacto de las amenazas pueden ser engañosas. Desarrollamos una estrategia basada en datos para evaluar el impacto acumulativo sobre los ecosistemas y la aplicamos para explorar las relaciones no lineales entre las amenazas y la comunidad de peces de arrecifes templados. Usamos datos de la calidad del agua, pesca comercial, cambio climático e indicadores de pesca recreativa y urbanización para construir un mapa acumulativo de amenazas de la región norte de Nueva Gales del Sur, Australia. Usamos modelos estadísticos de la abundancia de peces para cuantificar las asociaciones entre las amenazas y las covarianzas biofísicas y pronosticamos en dónde es probable que los impactos acumulativos sean mayores sobre los peces. También evaluamos el desempeño de las zonas de veda para así proteger a los peces de las amenazas acumulativas en dos redes de áreas marinas protegidas (parques marinos). La pesca tuvo un mayor impacto que la calidad del agua sobre los peces (es decir, el incremento del porcentaje por encima de la media de depredadores de invertebrados fue de 337% cuando se eliminó la pesca y fue de 11% por encima de la media cuando se eliminó la calidad del agua dentro de las zonas de veda) y la pesca fuera de las zonas de veda afectó la abundancia de los peces dentro de ellas. La cuantificación de la influencia espacial de las múltiples amenazas permite que los gestores entiendan la multitud de acciones de manejo que se requieren para abordar las amenazas.

Anthropogenic pressures and life history predict trajectories of seagrass meadow extent at a global scale.

Seagrass meadows are threatened by multiple pressures, jeopardizing the many benefits they provide to humanity and biodiversity, including climate regulation and food provision through fisheries production. Conservation of seagrass requires identification of the main pressures contributing to loss and the regions most at risk of ongoing loss. Here, we model trajectories of seagrass change at the global scale and show they are related to multiple anthropogenic pressures but that trajectories vary widely with seagrass life-history strategies. Rapidly declining trajectories of seagrass meadow extent (>25% loss from 2000 to 2010) were most strongly associated with high pressures from destructive demersal fishing and poor water quality. Conversely, seagrass meadow extent was more likely to be increasing when these two pressures were low. Meadows dominated by seagrasses with persistent life-history strategies tended to have slowly changing or stable trajectories, while those with opportunistic species were more variable, with a higher probability of either rapidly declining or rapidly increasing. Global predictions of regions most at risk for decline show high-risk areas in Europe, North America, Japan, and southeast Asia, including places where comprehensive long-term monitoring data are lacking. Our results highlight where seagrass loss may be occurring unnoticed and where urgent conservation interventions are required to reverse loss and sustain their essential services.

Climate drives the geography of marine consumption by changing predator communities.

The global distribution of primary production and consumption by humans (fisheries) is well-documented, but we have no map linking the central ecological process of consumption within food webs to temperature and other ecological drivers. Using standardized assays that span 105° of latitude on four continents, we show that rates of bait consumption by generalist predators in shallow marine ecosystems are tightly linked to both temperature and the composition of consumer assemblages. Unexpectedly, rates of consumption peaked at midlatitudes (25 to 35°) in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres across both seagrass and unvegetated sediment habitats. This pattern contrasts with terrestrial systems, where biotic interactions reportedly weaken away from the equator, but it parallels an emerging pattern of a subtropical peak in marine biodiversity. The higher consumption at midlatitudes was closely related to the type of consumers present, which explained rates of consumption better than consumer density, biomass, species diversity, or habitat. Indeed, the apparent effect of temperature on consumption was mostly driven by temperature-associated turnover in consumer community composition. Our findings reinforce the key influence of climate warming on altered species composition and highlight its implications for the functioning of Earth's ecosystems.

Fluctuating fortunes: Stressor synchronicity and fluctuating intensity influence biological impacts.

Ecosystems remain under enormous pressure from multiple anthropogenic stressors. Manipulative experiments evaluating stressor interactions and impacts mostly apply stressors under static conditions without considering how variable stressor intensity (i.e. fluctuations) and synchronicity (i.e. timing of fluctuations) affect biological responses. We ask how variable stressor intensity and synchronicity, and interaction type, can influence how multiple stressors affect seagrass. At the highest intensities, fluctuating stressors applied asynchronously reduced seagrass biomass 36% more than for static stressors, yet no such difference occurred for photosynthetic capacity. Testing three separate hypotheses to predict underlying drivers of differences in biological responses highlighted alternative modes of action dependent on how stressors fluctuated over time. Given that environmental conditions are constantly changing, assessing static stressors may lead to inaccurate predictions of cumulative effects. Translating multiple stressor experiments to the real world, therefore, requires considering variability in stressor intensity and the synchronicity of fluctuations.

Interactive effects of multiple stressors vary with consumer interactions, stressor dynamics and magnitude.

Predicting the impacts of multiple stressors is important for informing ecosystem management but is impeded by a lack of a general framework for predicting whether stressors interact synergistically, additively or antagonistically. Here, we use process-based models to study how interactions generalise across three levels of biological organisation (physiological, population and consumer-resource) for a two-stressor experiment on a seagrass model system. We found that the same underlying processes could result in synergistic, additive or antagonistic interactions, with interaction type depending on initial conditions, experiment duration, stressor dynamics and consumer presence. Our results help explain why meta-analyses of multiple stressor experimental results have struggled to identify predictors of consistently non-additive interactions in the natural environment. Experiments run over extended temporal scales, with treatments across gradients of stressor magnitude, are needed to identify the processes that underpin how stressors interact and provide useful predictions to management.

Greater Consideration of Animals Will Enhance Coastal Restoration Outcomes.

As efforts to restore coastal habitats accelerate, it is critical that investments are targeted to most effectively mitigate and reverse habitat loss and its impacts on biodiversity. One likely but largely overlooked impediment to effective restoration of habitat-forming organisms is failing to explicitly consider non-habitat-forming animals in restoration planning, implementation, and monitoring. These animals can greatly enhance or degrade ecosystem function, persistence, and resilience. Bivalves, for instance, can reduce sulfide stress in seagrass habitats and increase drought tolerance of saltmarsh vegetation, whereas megaherbivores can detrimentally overgraze seagrass or improve seagrass seed germination, depending on the context. Therefore, understanding when, why, and how to directly manipulate or support animals can enhance coastal restoration outcomes. In support of this expanded restoration approach, we provide a conceptual framework, incorporating lessons from structured decision-making, and describe potential actions that could lead to better restoration outcomes using case studies to illustrate practical approaches.

Long-term declines and recovery of meadow area across the world's seagrass bioregions.

As human impacts increase in coastal regions, there is concern that critical habitats that provide the foundation of entire ecosystems are in decline. Seagrass meadows face growing threats such as poor water quality and coastal development. To determine the status of seagrass meadows over time, we reconstructed time series of meadow area from 175 studies that surveyed 547 sites around the world. We found an overall trajectory of decline in all seven bioregions with a global net loss of 5602 km2 (19.1% of surveyed meadow area) occurring since 1880. Declines have typically been non-linear, with rapid and historical losses observed in several bioregions. The greatest net losses of area occurred in four bioregions (Tropical Atlantic, Temperate North Atlantic East, Temperate Southern Oceans and Tropical Indo-Pacific), with declining trends being the slowest and most consistent in the latter two bioregions. In some bioregions, trends have recently stabilised or reversed. Losses, however, still outweigh gains. Despite consistent global declines, meadows show high variability in trajectories, within and across bioregions, highlighting the importance of local context. Studies identified 12 different drivers of meadow area change, with coastal development and water quality as the most commonly cited. Overall, however, attributions were primarily descriptive and only 10% of studies used inferential attributions. Although ours is the most comprehensive dataset to date, it still represents only one-tenth of known global seagrass extent, with conspicuous historical and geographic biases in sampling. It therefore remains unclear whether the bioregional patterns of change documented here reflect changes in the world's unmonitored seagrass meadows. The variability in seagrass meadow trajectories, and the attribution of change to numerous drivers, suggest we urgently need to improve understanding of the causes of seagrass meadow loss if we are to improve local-scale management.

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss.

Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These 'blue carbon' ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO2 sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land-use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under 'business as usual' rates of mangrove loss. Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the Andaman coast (West Myanmar) and north Brazil due to erosion. Together, these six regions accounted for 90% of the total potential CO2 eq future emissions. Mangrove loss has been slowing, and global emissions could be more than halved if reduced loss rates remain in the future. Notably, the location of global emission hotspots was consistent with every dataset used to calculate deforestation rates or with alternative assumptions about carbon storage and emissions. Our results indicate the regions in need of policy actions to address emissions arising from mangrove loss and the drivers that could be managed to prevent them.

Low redundancy and complementarity shape ecosystem functioning in a low-diversity ecosystem.

Ecosystem functioning is positively linked to biodiversity on land and in the sea. In high-diversity systems (e.g. coral reefs), species coexist by sharing resources and providing similar functions at different temporal or spatial scales. How species combine to deliver the ecological function they provide is pivotal for maintaining the structure, functioning and resilience of some ecosystems, but the significance of this is rarely examined in low-diversity systems such as estuaries. We tested whether an ecological function is shaped by biodiversity in a low-diversity ecosystem by measuring the consumption of carrion by estuarine scavengers. Carrion (e.g. decaying animal flesh) is opportunistically fed on by a large number of species across numerous ecosystems. Estuaries were chosen as the model system because carrion consumption is a pivotal ecological function in coastal seascapes, and estuaries are thought to support diverse scavenger assemblages, which are modified by changes in water quality and the urbanization of estuarine shorelines. We used baited underwater video arrays to record scavengers and measure the rate at which carrion was consumed by fish in 39 estuaries across 1,000 km of coastline in eastern Australia. Carrion consumption was positively correlated with the abundance of only one species, yellowfin bream Acanthopagrus australis, which consumed 58% of all deployed carrion. The consumption of carrion by yellowfin bream was greatest in urban estuaries with moderately hardened shorelines (20%-60%) and relatively large subtidal rock bars (>0.1 km2 ). Our findings demonstrate that an ecological function can be maintained across estuarine seascapes despite both limited redundancy (i.e. dominated by one species) and complementarity (i.e. there is no spatial context where the function is delivered significantly when yellowfin bream are not present) in the functional traits of animal assemblages. The continued functioning of estuaries, and other low-diversity ecosystems, might therefore not be tightly linked to biodiversity, and we suggest that the preservation of functionally dominant species that maintain functions in these systems could help to improve conservation outcomes for coastal seascapes.

Deep learning for automated analysis of fish abundance: the benefits of training across multiple habitats.

Environmental monitoring guides conservation and is particularly important for aquatic habitats which are heavily impacted by human activities. Underwater cameras and uncrewed devices monitor aquatic wildlife, but manual processing of footage is a significant bottleneck to rapid data processing and dissemination of results. Deep learning has emerged as a solution, but its ability to accurately detect animals across habitat types and locations is largely untested for coastal environments. Here, we produce five deep learning models using an object detection framework to detect an ecologically important fish, luderick (Girella tricuspidata). We trained two models on footage from single habitats (seagrass or reef) and three on footage from both habitats. All models were subjected to tests from both habitat types. Models performed well on test data from the same habitat type (object detection measure: mAP50: 91.7 and 86.9% performance for seagrass and reef, respectively) but poorly on test sets from a different habitat type (73.3 and 58.4%, respectively). The model trained on a combination of both habitats produced the highest object detection results for both tests (an average of 92.4 and 87.8%, respectively). The ability of the combination trained models to correctly estimate the ecological abundance metric, MaxN, showed similar patterns. The findings demonstrate that deep learning models extract ecologically useful information from video footage accurately and consistently and can perform across habitat types when trained on footage from the variety of habitat types.

Effects of seascape connectivity on reserve performance along exposed coastlines.

Seascape connectivity (landscape connectivity in the sea) can modify reserve performance in low-energy marine ecosystems (e.g., coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass), but it is not clear whether similar spatial linkages also shape reserve effectiveness on high-energy, exposed coastlines. We used the surf zones of ocean beaches in eastern Australia as a model system to test how seascape connectivity and reserve attributes combine to shape conservation outcomes. Spatial patterns in fish assemblages were measured using baited remote underwater video stations in 12 marine reserves and 15 fished beaches across 2000 km of exposed coastline. Reserve performance was shaped by both the characteristics of reserves and the spatial properties of the coastal seascapes in which reserves were embedded. Number of fish species and abundance of harvested fishes were highest in surf-zone reserves that encompassed >1.5 km of the surf zone; were located < 100 m to rocky headlands; and included pocket beaches in a heterogeneous seascape. Conservation outcomes for exposed coastlines may, therefore, be enhanced by prioritizing sufficiently large areas of seascapes that are strongly linked to abutting complementary habitats. Our findings have broader implications for coastal conservation planning. Empirical data to describe how the ecological features of high-energy shorelines influence conservation outcomes are lacking, and we suggest that seascape connectivity may have similar ecological effects on reserve performance on both sheltered and exposed coastlines.

Efectos de la Conectividad de Paisajes Marinos sobre el Desempeño de las Reservas a lo largo de Costas Expuestas Resumen La conectividad entre paisajes marinos puede modificar el desempeño de las reservas en los ecosistemas marinos de baja energía (p. ej.: arrecifes de coral, manglares, pastos marinos), pero no está claro si las conexiones espaciales similares también moldean la efectividad de las reservas en costas expuestas con alta energía. Usamos las zonas de rompimiento de las playas oceánicas en el este de Australia como sistema modelo para probar cómo la conectividad entre paisajes marinos y los atributos de la reserva se combinan para moldear los resultados de la conservación. Los patrones espaciales en los ensamblados de peces se midieron con estaciones remotas de video subacuático con carnada en doce reservas marinas y 15 playas a lo largo de 2000 km de costas expuestas. El desempeño de las reservas estuvo moldeado por las características de las reservas y las propiedades espaciales de los paisajes costeros en los cuales estaban insertadas las reservas. El número de especies de peces y la abundancia de peces recolectados fue mucho mayor en las reservas en las zonas de rompimiento que abarcaban >1.5 km de la zona de rompimiento; estaban localizadas a <100 m de cabos rocosos; e incluían playas pequeñas entre los cabos en un paisaje marino heterogéneo. Los resultados de conservación para las costas expuestas pueden, por lo tanto, mejorarse con la priorización suficiente de grandes áreas de paisajes marinos que están conectados fuertemente con hábitats complementarios colindantes. Nuestros hallazgos tienen consecuencias más generales para la planeación de la conservación costera. Los datos empíricos para describir cómo las características ecológicas de las costas con alta energía influyen sobre los resultados de conservación son muy pocos, y sugerimos que la conectividad entre paisajes marinos puede tener efectos ecológicos similares sobre el desempeño de las reservas en costas expuestas y resguardadas.

Functional plasticity in vertebrate scavenger assemblages in the presence of introduced competitors.

Introduced species may suppress or enhance ecological functions, or they may have neutral effects in ecosystems where they replace or complement native species. Few studies, however, have explicitly tested for these trajectories, and for the effect these might have for native species. In this study, we experimentally test the trajectory and scale of change in the function of 'carrion removal' at different carrion loads along ocean beaches in Eastern Australia that have different numbers of introduced red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and several species of native raptors. We hypothesized that the 'positive' effect of foxes on carrion removal would be greatest at high carrion loads, because competition for resources between native and introduced species is lower. Scavenger abundance, fox occurrences, and carrion consumption by these species differed widely between locations and times. Despite distinct spatial differences in the structure of vertebrate scavenger assemblages, total carrion consumption was not significantly different between locations at any carrion load. This lack of variation in functional rates indicates potential functional plasticity in the scavenger assemblage and possible functional accommodation of red foxes. Neutral fox effects on ecological functions or the ecosystem more broadly are, however, very unlikely to extend beyond carrion consumption.

Monitoring the environment and human sentiment on the Great Barrier Reef: Assessing the potential of collective sensing.

With the growth of smartphone usage the number of social media posts has significantly increased and represents potentially valuable information for management, including of natural resources and the environment. Already, evidence of using 'human sensor' in crises management suggests that collective knowledge could be used to complement traditional monitoring. This research uses Twitter data posted from the Great Barrier Reef region, Australia, to assess whether the extent and type of data could be used to Great Barrier Reef organisations as part of their monitoring program. The analysis reveals that large amounts of tweets, covering the geographic area of interest, are available and that the pool of information providers is greatly enhanced by the large number of tourists to this region. A keyword and sentiment analysis demonstrates the usefulness of the Twitter data, but also highlights that the actual number of Reef-related tweets is comparatively small and lacks specificity. Suggestions for further steps towards the development of an integrative data platform that incorporates social media are provided.

Resource type influences the effects of reserves and connectivity on ecological functions.

Connectivity is a pivotal feature of landscapes that affects the structure of populations and the functioning of ecosystems. It is also a key consideration in conservation planning. But the potential functional effects of landscape connectivity are rarely evaluated in a conservation context. The removal of algae by herbivorous fish is a key ecological function on coral reefs that promotes coral growth and recruitment. Many reef herbivores are harvested and some use other habitats (like mangroves) as nurseries or feeding areas. Thus, the effects of habitat connectivity and marine reserves can jointly promote herbivore populations on coral reefs, thereby influencing reef health. We used a coral reef seascape in eastern Australia to test whether seascape connectivity and reserves influence herbivory. We measured herbivore abundance and rates of herbivory (on turf algae and macroalgae) on reefs that differed in both their level of connectivity to adjacent mangrove habitats and their level of protection from fishing. Reserves enhanced the biomass of herbivorous fish on coral reefs in all seascape settings and promoted consumption of turf algae. Consumption of turf algae was correlated with the biomass of surgeonfish that are exploited outside reserves. By contrast, both reserve status and connectivity influenced herbivory on macroalgae. Consumption of macroalgae was greatest on fished reefs that were far from mangroves and was not strongly correlated with any fish species. Our findings demonstrate that landscape connectivity and reserve status can jointly affect the functioning of ecosystems. Moreover, we show that reserve and connectivity effects can differ markedly depending on resource type (in this case turf algae vs. macroalgae). The effectiveness of conservation initiatives will therefore depend on our ability to understand how these multiple interactive effects structure the distribution of ecological functions. These findings have wider implications for the spatial conservation of heterogeneous environments and strengthen the case that the impact of conservation on ecosystem functioning is contingent on how reserves are positioned in landscapes.

Invasive carnivores alter ecological function and enhance complementarity in scavenger assemblages on ocean beaches.

Species composition is expected to alter ecological function in assemblages if species traits differ strongly. Such effects are often large and persistent for nonnative carnivores invading islands. Alternatively, high similarity in traits within assemblages creates a degree of functional redundancy in ecosystems. Here we tested whether species turnover results in functional ecological equivalence or complementarity, and whether invasive carnivores on islands significantly alter such ecological function. The model system consisted of vertebrate scavengers (dominated by raptors) foraging on animal carcasses on ocean beaches on two Australian islands, one with and one without invasive red foxes (Vulpes vulpes). Partitioning of scavenging events among species, carcass removal rates, and detection speeds were quantified using camera traps baited with fish carcasses at the dune-beach interface. Complete segregation of temporal foraging niches between mammals (nocturnal) and birds (diurnal) reflects complementarity in carrion utilization. Conversely, functional redundancy exists within the bird guild where several species of raptors dominate carrion removal in a broadly similar way. As predicted, effects of red foxes were large. They substantially changed the nature and rate of the scavenging process in the system: (1) foxes consumed over half (55%) of all carrion available at night, compared with negligible mammalian foraging at night on the fox-free island, and (2) significant shifts in the composition of the scavenger assemblages consuming beach-cast carrion are the consequence of fox invasion at one island. Arguably, in the absence of other mammalian apex predators, the addition of red foxes creates a new dimension of functional complementarity in beach food webs. However, this functional complementarity added by foxes is neither benign nor neutral, as marine carrion subsidies to coastal red fox populations are likely to facilitate their persistence as exotic carnivores.

Identifying habitats at risk: simple models can reveal complex ecosystem dynamics.

The relationship between ecological impact and ecosystem structure is often strongly nonlinear, so that small increases in impact levels can cause a disproportionately large response in ecosystem structure. Nonlinear ecosystem responses can be difficult to predict because locally relevant data sets can be difficult or impossible to obtain. Bayesian networks (BN) are an emerging tool that can help managers to define ecosystem relationships using a range of data types from comprehensive quantitative data sets to expert opinion. We show how a simple BN can reveal nonlinear dynamics in seagrass ecosystems using ecological relationships sourced from the literature. We first developed a conceptual diagram by cataloguing the ecological responses of seagrasses to a range of drivers and impacts. We used the conceptual diagram to develop a BN populated with values sourced from published studies. We then applied the BN to show that the amount of initial seagrass biomass has a mitigating effect on the level of impact a meadow can withstand without loss, and that meadow recovery can often require disproportionately large improvements in impact levels. This mitigating effect resulted in the middle ranges of impact levels having a wide likelihood of seagrass presence, a situation known as bistability. Finally, we applied the model in a case study to identify the risk of loss and the likelihood of recovery for the conservation and management of seagrass meadows in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia. We used the model to predict the likelihood of bistability in 23 locations in the Bay. The model predicted bistability in seven locations, most of which have experienced seagrass loss at some stage in the past 25 years providing essential information for potential future restoration efforts. Our results demonstrate the capacity of simple, flexible modeling tools to facilitate collation and synthesis of disparate information. This approach can be adopted in the initial stages of conservation programs as a low-cost and relatively straightforward way to provide preliminary assessments of.nonlinear dynamics in ecosystems.

Marine reserves help coastal ecosystems cope with extreme weather.

Natural ecosystems have experienced widespread degradation due to human activities. Consequently, enhancing resilience has become a primary objective for conservation. Nature reserves are a favored management tool, but we need clearer empirical tests of whether they can impart resilience. Catastrophic flooding in early 2011 impacted coastal ecosystems across eastern Australia. We demonstrate that marine reserves enhanced the capacity of coral reefs to withstand flood impacts. Reserve reefs resisted the impact of perturbation, whilst fished reefs did not. Changes on fished reefs were correlated with the magnitude of flood impact, whereas variation on reserve reefs was related to ecological variables. Herbivory and coral recruitment are critical ecological processes that underpin reef resilience, and were greater in reserves and further enhanced on reserve reefs near mangroves. The capacity of reserves to mitigate external disturbances and promote ecological resilience will be critical to resisting an increased frequency of climate-related disturbance.

Incorporating surrogate species and seascape connectivity to improve marine conservation outcomes.

Conservation focuses on maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, but gaps in our knowledge of species biology and ecological processes often impede progress. For this reason, focal species and habitats are used as surrogates for multispecies conservation, but species-based approaches are not widely adopted in marine ecosystems. Reserves in the Solomon Islands were designed on the basis of local ecological knowledge to conserve bumphead parrotfish (Bolbometopon muricatum) and to protect food security and ecosystem functioning. Bumphead parrotfish are an iconic threatened species and may be a useful surrogate for multispecies conservation. They move across tropical seascapes throughout their life history, in a pattern of habitat use that is shared with many other species. We examined their value as a conservation surrogate and assessed the importance of seascape connectivity (i.e., the physical connectedness of patches in the seascape) among reefs, mangroves, and seagrass to marine reserve performance. Reserves were designed for bumphead parrotfish, but also enhanced the abundance of other species. Integration of local ecological knowledge and seascape connectivity enhanced the abundance of 17 other harvested fish species in local reserves. This result has important implications for ecosystem functioning and local villagers because many of these species perform important ecological processes and provide the foundation for extensive subsistence fisheries. Our findings suggest greater success in maintaining and restoring marine ecosystems may be achieved when they are managed to conserve surrogate species and preserve functional seascape connections.

Metrics to assess ecological condition, change, and impacts in sandy beach ecosystems.

Complexity is increasingly the hallmark in environmental management practices of sandy shorelines. This arises primarily from meeting growing public demands (e.g., real estate, recreation) whilst reconciling economic demands with expectations of coastal users who have modern conservation ethics. Ideally, shoreline management is underpinned by empirical data, but selecting ecologically-meaningful metrics to accurately measure the condition of systems, and the ecological effects of human activities, is a complex task. Here we construct a framework for metric selection, considering six categories of issues that authorities commonly address: erosion; habitat loss; recreation; fishing; pollution (litter and chemical contaminants); and wildlife conservation. Possible metrics were scored in terms of their ability to reflect environmental change, and against criteria that are widely used for judging the performance of ecological indicators (i.e., sensitivity, practicability, costs, and public appeal). From this analysis, four types of broadly applicable metrics that also performed very well against the indicator criteria emerged: 1.) traits of bird populations and assemblages (e.g., abundance, diversity, distributions, habitat use); 2.) breeding/reproductive performance sensu lato (especially relevant for birds and turtles nesting on beaches and in dunes, but equally applicable to invertebrates and plants); 3.) population parameters and distributions of vertebrates associated primarily with dunes and the supralittoral beach zone (traditionally focused on birds and turtles, but expandable to mammals); 4.) compound measurements of the abundance/cover/biomass of biota (plants, invertebrates, vertebrates) at both the population and assemblage level. Local constraints (i.e., the absence of birds in highly degraded urban settings or lack of dunes on bluff-backed beaches) and particular issues may require alternatives. Metrics - if selected and applied correctly - provide empirical evidence of environmental condition and change, but often do not reflect deeper environmental values per se. Yet, values remain poorly articulated for many beach systems; this calls for a comprehensive identification of environmental values and the development of targeted programs to conserve these values on sandy shorelines globally.

Stressor fluctuations alter mechanisms of seagrass community responses relative to static stressors.

Ecosystems are increasingly affected by multiple anthropogenic stressors that contribute to habitat degradation and loss. Natural ecosystems are highly dynamic, yet multiple stressor experiments often ignore variability in stressor intensity and do not consider how effects could be mediated across trophic levels, with implications for models that underpin stressor management. Here, we investigated the in situ effects of changes in stressor intensity (i.e., fluctuations) and synchronicity (i.e., timing of fluctuations) on a seagrass community, applying the stressors reduced light and physical disturbance to the sediment. We used structural equation models (SEMs) to identify causal effects of dynamic multiple stressors on seagrass shoot density and leaf surface area, and abundance of associated crustaceans. Responses depended on whether stressor intensities fluctuated or remained static. Relative to static stressor exposure at the end of the experiment, shoot density, leaf surface area, and crustacean abundance all declined under in-phase (synchronous; 17, 33, and 30 % less, respectively) and out-of-phase (asynchronous; 11, 28, and 39 % less, respectively) fluctuating treatments. Static treatment increased seagrass leaf surface area and crustacean abundance relative to the control group. We hypothesised that crustacean responses are mediated by changes in seagrass; however, causal analysis found only weak evidence for a mediation effect via leaf surface area. Changes in crustacean abundance, therefore, were primarily a direct response to stressors. Our results suggest that the mechanisms underpinning stress responses change when stressors fluctuate. For instance, increased leaf surface area under static stress could be caused by seagrass acclimating to low light, whereas no response under fluctuating stressors suggests an acclimation response was not triggered. The SEMs also revealed that community responses to the stressors can be independent of one another. Therefore, models based on static experiments may be representing ecological mechanisms not observed in natural ecosystems, and underestimating the impacts of stressors on ecosystems.