Urbanization exacerbates climate sensitivity of eastern United States broadleaf trees.

Tree growth is a key mechanism driving carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. Environmental conditions are important regulators of tree growth that can vary considerably between nearby urban and rural forests. For example, trees growing in cities often experience hotter and drier conditions than their rural counterparts while also being exposed to higher levels of light, pollution, and nutrient inputs. However, the extent to which these intrinsic differences in the growing conditions of trees in urban versus rural forests influence tree growth response to climate is not well known. In this study, we tested for differences in the climate sensitivity of tree growth between urban and rural forests along a latitudinal transect in the eastern United States that included Boston, Massachusetts, New York City, New York, and Baltimore, Maryland. Using dendrochronology analyses of tree cores from 55 white oak trees (Quercus alba), 55 red maple trees (Acer rubrum), and 41 red oak trees (Quercus rubra) we investigated the impacts of heat stress and water stress on the radial growth of individual trees. Across our three-city study, we found that tree growth was more closely correlated with climate stress in the cooler climate cities of Boston and New York than in Baltimore. Furthermore, heat stress was a significant hindrance to tree growth in higher latitudes while the impacts of water stress appeared to be more evenly distributed across latitudes. We also found that the growth of oak trees, but not red maple trees, in the urban sites of Boston and New York City was more adversely impacted by heat stress than their rural counterparts, but we did not see these urban-rural differences in Maryland. Trees provide a wide range of important ecosystem services and increasing tree canopy cover was typically an important component of urban sustainability strategies. In light of our findings that urbanization can influence how tree growth responds to a warming climate, we suggest that municipalities consider these interactions when developing their tree-planting palettes and when estimating the capacity of urban forests to contribute to broader sustainability goals in the future.

Nitrogen cycling and urban afforestation success in New York City.

Afforestation projects are a growing focus of urban restoration efforts to rehabilitate degraded landscapes and develop new forests. Urban forests provide myriad valuable ecosystem services essential for urban sustainability and resilience. These essential services are supported by natural soil microbial processes that transform organic matter to critical nutrients for plant community establishment and development. Nitrogen (N) is the most limiting nutrient in forest ecosystems, yet little information is known about N cycling in urban afforestation efforts. This study examined microbially mediated processes of carbon (C) and N cycling in 10 experimental afforested sites established across New York City parklands under the MillionTreesNYC initiative. Long-term research plots were established between 2009 and 2011 at each site with low and high diversity (two vs. six tree species) treatments. In 2018, 1-m soil cores were collected from plots at each site and analyzed for microbial biomass and respiration, potential net N mineralization, and nitrification, denitrification potential, soil inorganic N, and total soil N. Field observations revealed markedly different trajectories between sites that exhibited a closed canopy and leaf litter layer derived from trees that were planted and those that did not fit this description. These two metrics served to group sites into two categories (high vs. low) of afforestation success. We hypothesized that: (1) afforestation success would be correlated with rates of C and N cycling, (2) high diversity restoration techniques would affect these processes, and (3) inherent soil properties interact with plants and environmental conditions to affect the development of these processes over time. We found that high success sites had significantly higher rates of C and N cycling processes, but low and high diversity treatments showed no differences. Low success sites were more likely to have disturbed soil profiles with human-derived debris. Afforestation success appears to be driven by interactions between initial site conditions that facilitate plant community establishment and development that in turn enable N accumulation and cycling, creating positive feedbacks for success.

Water and nitrogen shape winter annual plant diversity and community composition in near-urban Sonoran Desert preserves.

Increased nitrogen (N) deposition threatens global biodiversity, but its effects in arid urban ecosystems are not well studied. In addition to altered N availability, urban environments also experience increases in other pollutants, decreased population connectivity, and altered biotic interactions, which can further impact biodiversity. In deserts, annual plant communities make up most of the plant diversity, support wildlife, and contribute to nutrient cycling and ecosystem processes. Functional tradeoffs allowing coexistence of a diversity of annual plant species are well established, but maintenance of diversity in urban conditions and with increased availability of limiting nutrients has not been explored. We conducted a 13-year N and phosphorus (P) addition experiment in Sonoran Desert preserves in and around Phoenix, AZ, to test how nutrient availability interacts with growing season precipitation, urban location, and microhabitat to affect winter annual plant diversity. Using structural equation modeling and generalized linear mixed modeling, we found that annual plant taxonomic diversity was significantly reduced in N-enriched and urban plots. Water availability in both current and previous growing seasons impacted annual plant diversity, with significant interaction effects showing increased diversity in wetter years and greater responsiveness of the community to water following a wet year. However, there were no significant interactions between N enrichment and water availability, urban location, or microhabitat. Lowered diversity in urban preserves may be partly attributable to increased urban N deposition. Changes in biodiversity of showy species like annual wildflowers in urban preserves can have important implications for connections between urban residents and nature, and reduced diversity and community restructuring with N enrichment represents a challenge for future preservation of aridland biodiversity.

NPCC4: Concepts and tools for envisioning New York City's futures.

This chapter of the New York City Panel on Climate Change 4 (NPCC4) report discusses the many intersecting social, ecological, and technological-infrastructure dimensions of New York City (NYC) and their interactions that are critical to address in order to transition to and secure a climate-adapted future for all New Yorkers. The authors provide an assessment of current approaches to "future visioning and scenarios" across community and city-level initiatives and examine diverse dimensions of the NYC urban system to reduce risk and vulnerability and enable a future-adapted NYC. Methods for the integration of community and stakeholder ideas about what would make NYC thrive with scientific and technical information on the possibilities presented by different policies and actions are discussed. This chapter synthesizes the state of knowledge on how different communities of scholarship or practice envision futures and provides brief descriptions of the social-demographic and housing, transportation, energy, nature-based, and health futures and many other subsystems of the complex system of NYC that will all interact to determine NYC futures.

Large-scale determinants of street tree growth rates across an urban environment.

Urban street trees offer cities critical environmental and social benefits. In New York City (NYC), a decadal census of every street tree is conducted to help understand and manage the urban forest. However, it has previously been impossible to analyze growth of an individual tree because of uncertainty in tree location. This study overcomes this limitation using a three-step alignment process for identifying individual trees with ZIP Codes, address, and species instead of map coordinates. We estimated individual growth rates for 126,362 street trees (59 species and 19% of 2015 trees) using the difference between diameter at breast height (DBH) from the 2005 and 2015 tree censuses. The tree identification method was verified by locating and measuring the DBH of select trees and measuring a set of trees annually for over 5 years. We examined determinants of tree growth rates and explored their spatial distribution. In our newly created NYC tree growth database, fourteen species have over 1000 unique trees. The three most abundant tree species vary in growth rates; London Planetree (n = 32,056, 0.163 in/yr) grew the slowest compared to Honeylocust (n = 15,967, 0.356 in/yr), and Callery Pear (n = 15,902, 0.334 in/yr). Overall, Silver Linden was the fastest growing species (n = 1,149, 0.510 in/yr). Ordinary least squares regression that incorporated biological factors including size and the local urban form indicated that species was the major factor controlling growth rates, and tree stewardship had only a small effect. Furthermore, tree measurements by volunteer community scientists were as accurate as those made by NYC staff. Examining city wide patterns of tree growth indicates that areas with a higher Social Vulnerability Index have higher than expected growth rates. Continued efforts in street tree planting should utilize known growth rates while incorporating community voices to better provide long-term ecosystem services across NYC.

Change of urban park usage as a response to the COVID-19 global pandemic.

Urban parks became critical for maintaining the well-being of urban residents during the COVID-19 global pandemic. To examine the impact of COVID-19 on urban park usage, we selected New York City (NYC) and used SafeGraph mobility data, which was collected from a large sample of mobile phone users, to assess the change in park visits and travel distance to a park based on 1) park type, 2) the income level of the visitor census block group (visitor CBG) and 3) that of the park census block group (park CBG). All analyses were adjusted for the impact of temperature on park visitation, and we focused primarily on visits made by NYC residents. Overall, for the eight most popular park types in NYC, visits dropped by 49.2% from 2019 to 2020. The peak reduction in visits occurred in April 2020. Visits to all park types, excluding Nature Areas, decreased from March to December 2020 as compared to 2019. Parks located in higher-income CBGs tended to have lower reductions in visits, with this pattern being primarily driven by large parks, including Flagship Parks, Community Parks and Nature Areas. All types of parks saw significant decreases in distance traveled to visit them, with the exception of the Jointly Operated Playground, Playground, and Nature Area park types. Visitors originating from lower-income CBGs traveled shorter distances to parks and had less reduction in travel distances compared to those from higher-income CBGs. Furthermore, both before and during the pandemic, people tended to travel a greater distance to parks located in high-income CBGs compared to those in low-income CBGs. Finally, multiple types of parks proved crucial destinations for NYC residents during the pandemic. This included Nature Areas to which the visits remained stable, along with Recreation Field/Courts which had relatively small decreases in visits, especially for lower-income communities. Results from this study can support future park planning by shedding light on the different uses of certain park types before and during a global crisis, when access to these facilities can help alleviate the human well-being consequences of "lockdown" policies.

Phosphorus in Phoenix: a budget and spatial representation of phosphorus in an urban ecosystem.

As urban environments dominate the landscape, we need to examine how limiting nutrients such as phosphorus (P) cycle in these novel ecosystems. Sustainable management of P resources is necessary to ensure global food security and to minimize freshwater pollution. We used a spatially explicit budget to quantify the pools and fluxes of P in the Greater Phoenix Area in Arizona, USA, using the boundaries of the Central Arizona-Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research site. Inputs were dominated by direct imports of food and fertilizer for local agriculture, while most outputs were small, including water, crops, and material destined for recycling. Internally, fluxes were dominated by transfers of food and feed from local agriculture and the recycling of human and animal excretion. Spatial correction of P dynamics across the city showed that human density and associated infrastructure, especially asphalt, dominated the distribution of P pools across the landscape. Phosphorus fluxes were dominated by agricultural production, with agricultural soils accumulating P. Human features (infrastructure, technology, and waste management decisions) and biophysical characteristics (soil properties, water fluxes, and storage) mediated P dynamics in Phoenix. P cycling was most notably affected by water management practices that conserve and recycle water, preventing the loss of waterborne P from the ecosystem. P is not intentionally managed, and as a result, changes in land use and demographics, particularly increased urbanization and declining agriculture, may lead to increased losses of P from this system. We suggest that city managers should minimize cross-boundary fluxes of P to the city. Reduced P fluxes may be accomplished through more efficient recycling of waste, therefore decreasing dependence on external nonrenewable P resources and minimizing aquatic pollution. Our spatial approach and consideration of both pools and fluxes across a heterogeneous urban ecosystem increases the utility of nutrient budgets for city managers. Our budget explicitly links processes that affect P cycling across space with the management of other resources (e.g., water). A holistic management strategy that deliberately couples the management of P and other resources should be a priority for cities in achieving urban sustainability.

Bridging landscape ecology and urban science to respond to the rising threat of mosquito-borne diseases.

The prevalence of diseases borne by mosquitoes, particularly in the genus Aedes, is rising worldwide. This has been attributed, in part, to the dramatic rates of contemporary urbanization. While Aedes-borne disease risk varies within and between cities, few investigations use urban science-based approaches to examine how city structure and function contribute to vector or pathogen introduction and maintenance. Here, we integrate theories from complex adaptive systems, landscape ecology and urban geography to develop an urban systems framework for understanding Aedes-borne diseases. The framework establishes that cities comprise hierarchically structured patches of different land uses and characteristics. Properties of the patches (that is, composition) determine localized disease risk, while configuration and connectivity drive emergent patterns of pathogen spread. Complexity is added by incorporating individual and collective human social structures, considering how feedbacks among social actors and with the landscape drive risk and transmission. We discuss how these concepts apply to case studies of Aedes-borne disease from around the world. Ultimately, the framework strengthens existing theoretical and mixed qualitative-quantitative approaches, and advances considerations of how interventions including urban planning (for example, piped water provisioning) and emerging vector control strategies (for example, Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes) can be implemented to prevent and control the rising threat of Aedes-borne diseases.

Mixed method approach to assess atmospheric nitrogen deposition in arid and semi-arid ecosystems.

Arid and semi-arid ecosystems (aridlands) cover a third of Earth's terrestrial surface and contain organisms that are sensitive to low level atmospheric pollutants. Atmospheric nitrogen (N) inputs to aridlands are likely to cause changes in plant community composition, fire frequency, and carbon cycling and storage. However, few studies have documented long-term rates of atmospheric N inputs in aridlands because dry deposition is technically difficult to quantify, and extensive sampling is needed to capture fluxes with spatially and temporally heterogeneous rainfall patterns. Here, we quantified long-term spatial and temporal patterns of inorganic N deposition in protected aridland ecosystems across an extensive urban-rural gradient using multiple sampling methods. We compared long-term rates of N deposition from ion-exchange resin (IER) collectors (bulk and throughfall, 2006-2015), wet-dry bucket collectors (2006-2015), and dry deposition from the inferential method using passive samplers (2010-2012). From mixed approaches with IER collectors and inferential methods, we determined that 7.2 ±â€¯0.4 kgNha-1y-1 is deposited to protected Sonoran Desert within metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona and 6.1 ±â€¯0.3 kgNha-1y-1 in nearby desert ecosystems. Regional scale models overestimated deposition rates for our sampling period by 60% and misidentified hot spots of deposition across the airshed. By contrast, the easy-deployment IER throughfall collectors showed minimal spatial variation across the urban-rural gradient and underestimated deposition fluxes by 54%, largely because of underestimated dry deposition in throughfall. However, seasonal sampling of the IER collectors over 10 years allowed us to capture significant seasonal variation in N deposition and the importance of precipitation timing. These results, derived from the longest, spatially and temporally explicit dataset in drylands, highlight the need for long-term, mixed methods to estimate atmospheric nutrient enrichment to aridlands in a rapidly changing world.