Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500 years.

There are concerns that recent climate change is altering the frequency and magnitude of river floods in an unprecedented way1. Historical studies have identified flood-rich periods in the past half millennium in various regions of Europe2. However, because of the low temporal resolution of existing datasets and the relatively low number of series, it has remained unclear whether Europe is currently in a flood-rich period from a long-term perspective. Here we analyse how recent decades compare with the flood history of Europe, using a new database composed of more than 100 high-resolution (sub-annual) historical flood series based on documentary evidence covering all major regions of Europe. We show that the past three decades were among the most flood-rich periods in Europe in the past 500 years, and that this period differs from other flood-rich periods in terms of its extent, air temperatures and flood seasonality. We identified nine flood-rich periods and associated regions. Among the periods richest in floods are 1560-1580 (western and central Europe), 1760-1800 (most of Europe), 1840-1870 (western and southern Europe) and 1990-2016 (western and central Europe). In most parts of Europe, previous flood-rich periods occurred during cooler-than-usual phases, but the current flood-rich period has been much warmer. Flood seasonality is also more pronounced in the recent period. For example, during previous flood and interflood periods, 41 per cent and 42 per cent of central European floods occurred in summer, respectively, compared with 55 per cent of floods in the recent period. The exceptional nature of the present-day flood-rich period calls for process-based tools for flood-risk assessment that capture the physical mechanisms involved, and management strategies that can incorporate the recent changes in risk.

Locally Relevant High-Resolution Hydrodynamic Modeling of River Floods at the Regional Scale.

This paper deals with the simulation of inundated areas for a region of 84,000 km2 from estimated flood discharges at a resolution of 2 m. We develop a modeling framework that enables efficient parallel processing of the project region by splitting it into simulation tiles. For each simulation tile, the framework automatically calculates all input data and boundary conditions required for the hydraulic simulation on-the-fly. A novel method is proposed that ensures regionally consistent flood peak probabilities. Instead of simulating individual events, the framework simulates effective hydrographs consistent with the flood quantiles by adjusting streamflow at river nodes. The model accounts for local effects from buildings, culverts, levees, and retention basins. The two-dimensional full shallow water equations are solved by a second-order accurate scheme for all river reaches in Austria with catchment sizes over 10 km2, totaling 33,380 km. Using graphics processing units (GPUs), a single NVIDIA Titan RTX simulates a period of 3 days for a tile with 50 million wet cells in less than 3 days. We find good agreement between simulated and measured stage-discharge relationships at gauges. The simulated flood hazard maps also compare well with local high-quality flood maps, achieving critical success index scores of 0.6-0.79.

Watertight Incremental Heightfield Tessellation.

In this article, we propose a method for the interactive visualization of medium-scale dynamic heightfields without visual artifacts. Our data fall into a category too large to be rendered directly at full resolution, but small enough to fit into GPU memory without pre-filtering and data streaming. We present the real-world use case of unfiltered flood simulation data of such medium scale that need to be visualized in real time for scientific purposes. Our solution facilitates compute shaders to maintain a guaranteed watertight triangulation in GPU memory that approximates the interpolated heightfields with view-dependent, continuous levels of detail. In each frame, the triangulation is updated incrementally by iteratively refining the cached result of the previous frame to minimize the computational effort. In particular, we minimize the number of heightfield sampling operations to make adaptive and higher-order interpolations viable options. We impose no restriction on the number of subdivisions and the achievable level of detail to allow for extreme zoom ranges required in geospatial visualization. Our method provides a stable runtime performance and can be executed with a limited time budget. We present a comparison of our method to three state-of-the-art methods, in which our method is competitive to previous non-watertight methods in terms of runtime, while outperforming them in terms of accuracy.

Run Watchers: Automatic Simulation-Based Decision Support in Flood Management.

In this paper, we introduce a simulation-based approach to design protection plans for flood events. Existing solutions require a lot of computation time for an exhaustive search, or demand for a time-consuming expert supervision and steering. We present a faster alternative based on the automated control of multiple parallel simulation runs. Run Watchers are dedicated system components authorized to monitor simulation runs, terminate them, and start new runs originating from existing ones according to domain-specific rules. This approach allows for a more efficient traversal of the search space and overall performance improvements due to a re-use of simulated states and early termination of failed runs. In the course of search, Run Watchers generate large and complex decision trees. We visualize the entire set of decisions made by Run Watchers using interactive, clustered timelines. In addition, we present visualizations to explain the resulting response plans. Run Watchers automatically generate storyboards to convey plan details and to justify the underlying decisions, including those which leave particular buildings unprotected. We evaluate our solution with domain experts.

Plasmalemma abscisic acid perception leads to RAB18 expression via phospholipase D activation in Arabidopsis suspension cells.

Abscisic acid (ABA) plays a key role in the control of stomatal aperture by regulating ion channel activities and water exchanges across the plasma membrane of guard cells. Changes in cytoplasmic calcium content and activation of anion and outward-rectifying K(+) channels are among the earliest cellular responses to ABA in guard cells. In Arabidopsis suspension cells, we have demonstrated that outer plasmalemma perception of ABA triggered similar early events. Furthermore, a Ca(2+) influx and the activation of anion channels are part of the ABA-signaling pathway leading to the specific expression of RAB18. Here, we determine whether phospholipases are involved in ABA-induced RAB18 expression. Phospholipase C is not implicated in this ABA pathway. Using a transphosphatidylation reaction, we show that ABA plasmalemma perception results in a transient stimulation of phospholipase D (PLD) activity, which is necessary for RAB18 expression. Further experiments showed that PLD activation was unlikely to be regulated by heterotrimeric G proteins. We also observed that ABA-dependent stimulation of PLD was necessary for the activation of plasma anion current. However, when ABA activation of plasma anion channels was inhibited, the ABA-dependent activation of PLD was unchanged. Thus, we conclude that in Arabidopsis suspension cells, ABA stimulation of PLD acts upstream from anion channels in the transduction pathway leading to RAB18 expression.

Plasma membrane depolarization induced by abscisic acid in Arabidopsis suspension cells involves reduction of proton pumping in addition to anion channel activation, which are both Ca2+ dependent.

In Arabidopsis suspension cells a rapid plasma membrane depolarization is triggered by abscisic acid (ABA). Activation of anion channels was shown to be a component leading to this ABA-induced plasma membrane depolarization. Using experiments employing combined voltage clamping, continuous measurement of extracellular pH, we examined whether plasma membrane H(+)-ATPases could also be involved in the depolarization. We found that ABA causes simultaneously cell depolarization and medium alkalinization, the second effect being abolished when ABA is added in the presence of H+ pump inhibitors. Inhibition of the proton pump by ABA is thus a second component leading to the plasma membrane depolarization. The ABA-induced depolarization is therefore the result of two different processes: activation of anion channels and inhibition of H(+)-ATPases. These two processes are independent because impairing one did not suppress the depolarization. Both processes are however dependent on the [Ca2+]cyt increase induced by ABA since increase in [Ca(2+)](cyt) enhanced anion channels and impaired H(+)-ATPases.