Inhibition of CD40L with Frexalimab in Multiple Sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The CD40-CD40L costimulatory pathway regulates adaptive and innate immune responses and has been implicated in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis. Frexalimab is a second-generation anti-CD40L monoclonal antibody being evaluated for the treatment of multiple sclerosis. METHODS: In this phase 2, double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned, in a 4:4:1:1 ratio, participants with relapsing multiple sclerosis to receive 1200 mg of frexalimab administered intravenously every 4 weeks (with an 1800-mg loading dose), 300 mg of frexalimab administered subcutaneously every 2 weeks (with a 600-mg loading dose), or the matching placebos for each active treatment. The primary end point was the number of new gadolinium-enhancing T1-weighted lesions seen on magnetic resonance imaging at week 12 relative to week 8. Secondary end points included the number of new or enlarging T2-weighted lesions at week 12 relative to week 8, the total number of gadolinium-enhancing T1-weighted lesions at week 12, and safety. After 12 weeks, all the participants could receive open-label frexalimab. RESULTS: Of 166 participants screened, 129 were assigned to a trial group; 125 participants (97%) completed the 12-week double-blind period. The mean age of the participants was 36.6 years, 66% were women, and 30% had gadolinium-enhancing lesions at baseline. At week 12, the adjusted mean number of new gadolinium-enhancing T1-weighted lesions was 0.2 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1 to 0.4) in the group that received 1200 mg of frexalimab intravenously and 0.3 (95% CI, 0.1 to 0.6) in the group that received 300 mg of frexalimab subcutaneously, as compared with 1.4 (95% CI, 0.6 to 3.0) in the pooled placebo group. The rate ratios as compared with placebo were 0.11 (95% CI, 0.03 to 0.38) in the 1200-mg group and 0.21 (95% CI, 0.08 to 0.56) in the 300-mg group. Results for the secondary imaging end points were generally in the same direction as those for the primary analysis. The most common adverse events were coronavirus disease 2019 and headaches. CONCLUSIONS: In a phase 2 trial involving participants with multiple sclerosis, inhibition of CD40L with frexalimab had an effect that generally favored a greater reduction in the number of new gadolinium-enhancing T1-weighted lesions at week 12 as compared with placebo. Larger and longer trials are needed to determine the long-term efficacy and safety of frexalimab in persons with multiple sclerosis. (Funded by Sanofi; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04879628.).

Ublituximab versus Teriflunomide in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The monoclonal antibody ublituximab enhances antibody-dependent cellular cytolysis and produces B-cell depletion. Ublituximab is being evaluated for the treatment of relapsing multiple sclerosis. METHODS: In two identical, phase 3, double-blind, double-dummy trials (ULTIMATE I and II), participants with relapsing multiple sclerosis were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive intravenous ublituximab (150 mg on day 1, followed by 450 mg on day 15 and at weeks 24, 48, and 72) and oral placebo or oral teriflunomide (14 mg once daily) and intravenous placebo. The primary end point was the annualized relapse rate. Secondary end points included the number of gadolinium-enhancing lesions on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) by 96 weeks and worsening of disability. RESULTS: A total of 549 participants were enrolled in the ULTIMATE I trial, and 545 were enrolled in the ULTIMATE II trial; the median follow-up was 95 weeks. In the ULTIMATE I trial, the annualized relapse rate was 0.08 with ublituximab and 0.19 with teriflunomide (rate ratio, 0.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.27 to 0.62; P<0.001); in the ULTIMATE II trial, the annualized relapse rate was 0.09 and 0.18, respectively (rate ratio, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.78; P = 0.002). The mean number of gadolinium-enhancing lesions was 0.02 in the ublituximab group and 0.49 in the teriflunomide group (rate ratio, 0.03; 95% CI, 0.02 to 0.06; P<0.001) in the ULTIMATE I trial and 0.01 and 0.25, respectively (rate ratio, 0.04; 95% CI, 0.02 to 0.06; P<0.001), in the ULTIMATE II trial. In the pooled analysis of the two trials, 5.2% of the participants in the ublituximab group and 5.9% in the teriflunomide group had worsening of disability at 12 weeks (hazard ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.50 to 1.41; P = 0.51). Infusion-related reactions occurred in 47.7% of the participants in the ublituximab group. Serious infections occurred in 5.0% in the ublituximab group and in 2.9% in the teriflunomide group. CONCLUSIONS: Among participants with relapsing multiple sclerosis, ublituximab resulted in lower annualized relapse rates and fewer brain lesions on MRI than teriflunomide over a period of 96 weeks but did not result in a significantly lower risk of worsening of disability. Ublituximab was associated with infusion-related reactions. (Funded by TG Therapeutics; ULTIMATE I and II ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT03277261 and NCT03277248.).

Treatment for Mild Chronic Hypertension during Pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: The benefits and safety of the treatment of mild chronic hypertension (blood pressure, <160/100 mm Hg) during pregnancy are uncertain. Data are needed on whether a strategy of targeting a blood pressure of less than 140/90 mm Hg reduces the incidence of adverse pregnancy outcomes without compromising fetal growth. METHODS: In this open-label, multicenter, randomized trial, we assigned pregnant women with mild chronic hypertension and singleton fetuses at a gestational age of less than 23 weeks to receive antihypertensive medications recommended for use in pregnancy (active-treatment group) or to receive no such treatment unless severe hypertension (systolic pressure, ≥160 mm Hg; or diastolic pressure, ≥105 mm Hg) developed (control group). The primary outcome was a composite of preeclampsia with severe features, medically indicated preterm birth at less than 35 weeks' gestation, placental abruption, or fetal or neonatal death. The safety outcome was small-for-gestational-age birth weight below the 10th percentile for gestational age. Secondary outcomes included composites of serious neonatal or maternal complications, preeclampsia, and preterm birth. RESULTS: A total of 2408 women were enrolled in the trial. The incidence of a primary-outcome event was lower in the active-treatment group than in the control group (30.2% vs. 37.0%), for an adjusted risk ratio of 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74 to 0.92; P<0.001). The percentage of small-for-gestational-age birth weights below the 10th percentile was 11.2% in the active-treatment group and 10.4% in the control group (adjusted risk ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.82 to 1.31; P = 0.76). The incidence of serious maternal complications was 2.1% and 2.8%, respectively (risk ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.45 to 1.26), and the incidence of severe neonatal complications was 2.0% and 2.6% (risk ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.45 to 1.30). The incidence of any preeclampsia in the two groups was 24.4% and 31.1%, respectively (risk ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.69 to 0.89), and the incidence of preterm birth was 27.5% and 31.4% (risk ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.77 to 0.99). CONCLUSIONS: In pregnant women with mild chronic hypertension, a strategy of targeting a blood pressure of less than 140/90 mm Hg was associated with better pregnancy outcomes than a strategy of reserving treatment only for severe hypertension, with no increase in the risk of small-for-gestational-age birth weight. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; CHAP ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02299414.).

Differential Cognitive Effects of Unilateral Subthalamic Nucleus Deep Brain Stimulation for Parkinson's Disease.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the cognitive effects of unilateral directional versus ring subthalamic nucleus deep brain stimulation (STN DBS) in patients with advanced Parkinson's disease. METHODS: We examined 31 participants who underwent unilateral STN DBS (left n = 17; right n = 14) as part of an National Institutes of Health (NIH)-sponsored randomized, double-blind, crossover study contrasting directional versus ring stimulation. All participants received unilateral DBS implants in the hemisphere more severely affected by motor parkinsonism. Measures of cognition included verbal fluency, auditory-verbal memory, and response inhibition. We used mixed linear models to contrast the effects of directional versus ring stimulation and implant hemisphere on longitudinal cognitive function. RESULTS: Crossover analyses showed no evidence for group-level changes in cognitive performance related to directional versus ring stimulation. Implant hemisphere, however, impacted cognition in several ways. Left STN participants had lower baseline verbal fluency than patients with right implants (t [20.66 = -2.50, p = 0.02]). Verbal fluency declined after left (p = 0.013) but increased after right STN DBS (p < 0.001), and response inhibition was faster following right STN DBS (p = 0.031). Regardless of hemisphere, delayed recall declined modestly over time versus baseline (p = 0.001), and immediate recall was unchanged. INTERPRETATION: Directional versus ring STN DBS did not differentially affect cognition. Similar to prior bilateral DBS studies, unilateral left stimulation worsened verbal fluency performance. In contrast, unilateral right STN surgery increased performance on verbal fluency and response inhibition tasks. Our findings raise the hypothesis that unilateral right STN DBS in selected patients with predominant right brain motor parkinsonism could mitigate declines in verbal fluency associated with the bilateral intervention. ANN NEUROL 2024;95:1205-1219.

Interferon-γ Responses to Chlamydia trachomatis Vaccine Candidate Proteins in Women With Different Chlamydia Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Chlamydia trachomatis testing and treatment strategies have not decreased infection rates, justifying need for a chlamydia vaccine. A murine study showed that a vaccine consisting of major outer membrane protein (MOMP) and polymorphic membrane proteins (Pmps) E, F, G, and H elicited protective immunity; studies on human cellular immune responses to Pmps are sparse. METHODS: Interferon gamma (IFN-γ) responses to these 5 proteins were measured by ELISPOT in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from women returning for treatment of a positive chlamydia test. Responses were compared in those with spontaneous chlamydia clearance versus persisting infection at baseline and no reinfection versus reinfection at a 3-month follow-up visit. RESULTS: IFN-γ response to 1 or more proteins was detected in 39% at baseline and 51.5% at follow-up, most often to PmpE and MOMP. IFN-γ responses to MOMP were detected less often at follow-up versus baseline in women with reinfection, but were maintained in those without reinfection. Women with spontaneous clearance had a higher magnitude of IFN-γ response to PmpE and MOMP. CONCLUSIONS: IFN-γ responses to these 5 C. trachomatis vaccine candidate proteins were heterogenous and primarily directed against MOMP and PmpE. Spontaneous chlamydia clearance and absence of reinfection may be clinical correlates of protection.

Early Treatment with Vigabatrin Does Not Decrease Focal Seizures or Improve Cognition in Tuberous Sclerosis Complex: The PREVeNT Trial.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to test the hypothesis that early vigabatrin treatment in tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) infants improves neurocognitive outcome at 24 months of age. METHODS: A phase IIb multicenter randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial was conducted of vigabatrin at first epileptiform electroencephalogram (EEG) versus vigabatrin at seizure onset in infants with TSC. Primary outcome was Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development, Third Edition (Bayley-III) cognitive assessment score at 24 months. Secondary outcomes were prevalence of drug-resistant epilepsy, additional developmental outcomes, and safety of vigabatrin. RESULTS: Of 84 infants enrolled, 12 were screen failures, 4 went straight to open label vigabatrin, and 12 were not randomized (normal EEG throughout). Fifty-six were randomized to early vigabatrin (n = 29) or placebo (n = 27). Nineteen of 27 in the placebo arm transitioned to open label vigabatrin, with a median delay of 44 days after randomization. Bayley-III cognitive composite scores at 24 months were similar for participants randomized to vigabatrin or placebo. Additionally, no significant differences were found between groups in overall epilepsy incidence and drug-resistant epilepsy at 24 months, time to first seizure after randomization, and secondary developmental outcomes. Incidence of infantile spasms was lower and time to spasms after randomization was later in the vigabatrin group. Adverse events were similar across groups. INTERPRETATION: Preventative treatment with vigabatrin based on EEG epileptiform activity prior to seizure onset does not improve neurocognitive outcome at 24 months in TSC children, nor does it delay onset or lower the incidence of focal seizures and drug-resistant epilepsy at 24 months. Preventative vigabatrin was associated with later time to onset and lower incidence of infantile spasms. ANN NEUROL 2023.

Cognitive rehabilitation effects on grey matter volume and Go-NoGo activity in progressive multiple sclerosis: results from the CogEx trial.

BACKGROUND: Research on cognitive rehabilitation (CR) and aerobic exercise (EX) to improve cognition in progressive multiple sclerosis (PMS) remains limited. CogEx trial investigated the effectiveness of CR and EX in PMS: here, we present MRI substudy volumetric and task-related functional MRI (fMRI) findings. METHODS: Participants were randomised to: 'CR plus EX', 'CR plus sham EX (EX-S)', 'EX plus sham CR (CR-S)' and 'CR-S plus EX-S' and attended 12-week intervention. All subjects performed physical/cognitive assessments at baseline, week 12 and 6 months post intervention (month 9). All MRI substudy participants underwent volumetric MRI and fMRI (Go-NoGo task). RESULTS: 104 PMS enrolled at four sites participated in the CogEx MRI substudy; 84 (81%) had valid volumetric MRI and valid fMRI. Week 12/month 9 cognitive performances did not differ among interventions; however, 25-62% of the patients showed Symbol Digit Modalities Test improvements. Normalised cortical grey matter volume (NcGMV) changes at week 12 versus baseline were heterogeneous among interventions (p=0.05); this was mainly driven by increased NcGMV in 'CR plus EX-S' (p=0.02). Groups performing CR (ie, 'CR plus EX' and 'CR plus EX-S') exhibited increased NcGMV over time, especially in the frontal (p=0.01), parietal (p=0.04) and temporal (p=0.04) lobes, while those performing CR-S exhibited NcGMV decrease (p=0.008). In CR groups, increased NcGMV (r=0.36, p=0.01) at week 12 versus baseline correlated with increased California Verbal Learning Test (CVLT)-II scores. 'CR plus EX-S' patients exhibited Go-NoGo activity increase (p<0.05, corrected) at week 12 versus baseline in bilateral insula. CONCLUSIONS: In PMS, CR modulated grey matter (GM) volume and insular activity. The association of GM and CVLT-II changes suggests GM plasticity contributes to cognitive improvements. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03679468.

Stretching is not essential for managing MS spasticity: A randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice, expert opinion, and evidence-based guidelines recommend daily stretching as first-line treatment for multiple sclerosis (MS) spasticity, but this has not been evaluated by fully powered clinical trials. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether MS Spasticity: Take Control (STC), a guideline-based program of spasticity education and stretching exercises has different effects on the impact of spasticity than a control program of different spasticity education and range of motion (ROM) exercises. METHODS: Ambulatory people with self-reported MS spasticity were randomly assigned to STC or ROM, delivered in same duration, facilitator-led, group classes, face-to-face (F2F) initially and later virtually, due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Multiple Sclerosis Spasticity Scale (MSSS) scores were compared between groups at 1 (primary outcome) and 6 months after interventions. RESULTS: A total of 231 people enrolled. There was no significant difference in MSSS scores between STC and ROM at 1 month (mean difference = 0.28, 95% (confidence interval (CI)) = [-9.45 to 10.01], p = 0.955). There were significant group mean improvements in MSSS scores and most other outcomes at 1 and 6 months. CONCLUSION: Education with stretching exercises, the first-line recommended treatment for MS spasticity, and education with ROM exercises may both improve MS spasticity to a similar degree. This study debunks the belief that stretching is essential to managing MS spasticity.

Selecting informative patients for phase 2 progressive trials in MS: Design considerations for phase 2 clinical trials in progressive MS.

While relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) has many therapeutic options, progressive forms of MS remain largely untreatable. Phase 2 clinical trials are our main tool to advance new treatments for progressive MS. Given the complexities of progressive MS, it will likely require many phase 2 trials to improve its treatment. To conduct informative and efficient phase 2 trials, it is important that such trials are designed in a way that they can identify a successful treatment as quickly and with as few participants as possible. In this topical review, we discuss cohort selection, outcome selection, cohort enrichment, and dosing selection as strategies to optimize the efficiency of phase 2 clinical trials in progressive MS.

Ketone monoester attenuates oxygen desaturation during weighted ruck exercise under acute hypoxic exposure but does not impact cognitive performance.

Acute ingestion of exogenous ketone supplements in the form of a (R)-3-hydroxybutyl (R)-3-hydroxybutyrate (R-BD R-ßHB) ketone monoester (KME) can attenuate declines in oxygen availability during hypoxic exposure and might impact cognitive performance at rest and in response to moderate-intensity exercise. In a single-blind randomized crossover design, 16 males performed assessments of cognitive performance before and during hypoxic exposure with moderate exercise [2 × 20 min weighted ruck (∼22 kg) at 3.2 km/h at 10% incline] in a normobaric altitude chamber (4572 m, 11.8% O2). The R-BD R-ßHB KME (573 mg/kg) or a calorie- and taste-matched placebo (∼50 g maltodextrin) were co-ingested with 40 g of dextrose before exposure to hypoxia. The R-ßHB concentrations were rapidly elevated and sustained (>3 mM; P < 0.001) by KME. The decline in oxygen saturation during hypoxic exposure was attenuated in KME conditions by 2.4%-4.2% (P < 0.05) compared with placebo. Outcomes of cognitive performance tasks, in the form of the Defense Automated Neurobehavioral Assessment (DANA) code substitution task, the Stroop color and word task, and a shooting simulation, did not differ between trials before and during hypoxic exposure. These data suggest that the acute exogenous ketosis induced by KME ingestion can attenuate declining blood oxygen saturation during acute hypoxic exposure both at rest and during moderate-intensity exercise, but this did not translate into differences in cognitive performance before or after exercise in the conditions investigated. HIGHLIGHTS: What is the central question of this study? Can exogenous ketosis act as a countermeasure to declines in blood oxygen saturation and cognitive performance during acute hypoxic exposure while performing a weighted ruck exercise? What is the main finding and its importance? Acute exogenous ketosis via ingestion of a drink containing the (R)-3-hydroxybutyl (R)-3-hydroxybutyrate ketone monoester prior to acute hypoxic exposure attenuated hypoxia-induced declines in blood oxygen saturation but had no effect on cognitive performance during exercise.

Ketone monoester attenuates declines in cognitive performance and oxygen saturation during acute severe hypoxic exposure under resting conditions.

Exogenous ketone supplements are a potential augmentation strategy for cognitive resilience during acute hypoxic exposure due to their capacity to attenuate the decline in oxygen (O2) availability, and by providing an alternative substrate for cerebral metabolism. Utilizing a single-blind randomized crossover design, 16 male military personnel (age, 25.3 ± 2.4 year, body mass, 86.2 ± 9.3 kg) performed tests of cognitive performance at rest in three environments: room air (baseline), normoxia (20 min; 0 m; 20.9% O2) and hypoxia (20 min; 6096 m, 9.7% O2) using a reduced O2 breathing device (ROBD). (R)-3-Hydroxybutyl (R)-3-hydroxybutyrate (R-BD R-ßHB) ketone monoester (KME; 650 mg/kg, split dose given at 30 min prior to each exposure) or taste-matched placebo (PLA) was ingested prior to normoxia and hypoxic exposure. Blood R-ßHB and glucose concentrations, cognitive performance and O2 saturation ( S p O 2 ${{S}_{{\mathrm{p}}{{{\mathrm{O}}}_{\mathrm{2}}}}}$ ) were collected throughout. KME ingestion increased blood R-ßHB concentration, which was rapid and sustained (>4 mM 30 min post; P < 0.001) and accompanied by lower blood glucose concentration (∼20 mg/dL; P < 0.01) compared to PLA. Declines in cognitive performance during hypoxic exposure, assessed as cognitive efficiency during a Defense Automated Neurobehavioral Assessment (DANA) code substitution task, were attenuated with KME leading to 6.8 (95% CL: 1.0, 12.6) more correct responses per minute compared to PLA (P = 0.018). The decline in S p O 2 ${{S}_{{\mathrm{p}}{{{\mathrm{O}}}_{\mathrm{2}}}}}$ during hypoxic exposure was attenuated (6.40% S p O 2 ${{S}_{{\mathrm{p}}{{{\mathrm{O}}}_{\mathrm{2}}}}}$ ; 95% CL: 0.04, 12.75; P = 0.049) in KME compared to PLA (KME, 76.8 ± 6.4% S p O 2 ${{S}_{{\mathrm{p}}{{{\mathrm{O}}}_{\mathrm{2}}}}}$ ; PLA, 70.4 ± 7.4% S p O 2 ${{S}_{{\mathrm{p}}{{{\mathrm{O}}}_{\mathrm{2}}}}}$ ). Acute ingestion of KME attenuated the decline in cognitive performance during acute severe hypoxic exposure, which coincided with attenuation of declines in O2 saturation. HIGHLIGHTS: What is the central question of this study? Can exogenous ketosis act as a countermeasure to declines in blood oxygen saturation and cognitive performance during acute severe hypoxic exposure at rest? What is the main finding and its importance? Acute exogenous ketosis via ingestion of a drink containing the (R)-3-hydroxybutyl (R)-3-hydroxybutyrate ketone monoester prior to acute severe hypoxic exposure attenuated hypoxia-induced declines in blood oxygen saturation and cognitive performance at rest.

Novel non-linear models for clinical trial analysis with longitudinal data: A tutorial using SAS for both frequentist and Bayesian methods.

Longitudinal data from clinical trials are commonly analyzed using mixed models for repeated measures (MMRM) when the time variable is categorical or linear mixed-effects models (ie, random effects model) when the time variable is continuous. In these models, statistical inference is typically based on the absolute difference in the adjusted mean change (for categorical time) or the rate of change (for continuous time). Previously, we proposed a novel approach: modeling the percentage reduction in disease progression associated with the treatment relative to the placebo decline using proportional models. This concept of proportionality provides an innovative and flexible method for simultaneously modeling different cohorts, multivariate endpoints, and jointly modeling continuous and survival endpoints. Through simulated data, we demonstrate the implementation of these models using SAS procedures in both frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Additionally, we introduce a novel method for implementing MMRM models (ie, analysis of response profile) using the nlmixed procedure.

Study protocol: exercise training for treating major depressive disorder in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is prevalent, yet sub-optimally treated among persons with multiple sclerosis (MS). We propose that exercise training may be a promising approach for treating depression in persons with MS who have MDD. Our primary hypothesis predicts a reduction in depression severity immediately after an exercise training intervention compared with minimal change in an attention control condition, and the reduction will be maintained during a follow-up period. METHODS: This study involves a parallel-group, assessor-blinded RCT that examines the effect of a 4-month home-based exercise training intervention on depression severity in a sample of persons with MS who have MDD based on the MINI International Neuropsychiatric Interview. The primary outcomes of depression severity are the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 and Hamilton Depression Rating Scale. Participants (N = 146) will be recruited from within 200 miles of the University of Illinois at Chicago and randomized (1:1) into either a home-based exercise training condition or control condition with concealed allocation. The exercise training and social-contact, attention control (i.e., stretching) conditions will be delivered remotely over a 4-month period and supported through eight, 1:1 Zoom-based behavioral coaching sessions guided by social-cognitive theory and conducted by persons who are uninvolved in screening, recruitment, random assignment, and outcome assessment. We will collect outcome data at 0, 4 and 8 months using treatment-blinded assessors, and data analyses will involve intent-to-treat principles. DISCUSSION: If successful, the proposed study will provide the first Class I evidence supporting a home-based exercise training program for treating MDD in persons with MS. This is critical as exercise training would likely have positive secondary effects on symptoms, cognition, and quality of life, and provide a powerful, behavioral approach for managing the many negative outcomes of MDD in MS. The program in the proposed research is accessible and scalable for broad treatment of depression in MS, and provides the potential for integration in the clinical management of MS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered on September 10, 2021 at clinicaltrials.gov with the identifier NCT05051618. The registration occurred before we initiated recruitment on June 2, 2023.

Randomized Controlled Trial of the Behavioral Intervention for Physical Activity in Multiple Sclerosis Project: Response Heterogeneity and Predictors of Change.

BACKGROUND: We reported that a social cognitive theory-based (SCT), Internet-delivered behavioral intervention increased device-measured minutes/day of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) over a 6-month period among persons with multiple sclerosis (MS). This paper examined the pattern and predictors of heterogeneity in change for MVPA. Based on previous research, we hypothesized that mild MS disability, fewer MS symptoms, lower baseline MVPA, and positive SCT characteristics (e.g., high exercise self-efficacy) would be associated with greater change in MVPA. METHOD: Persons with MS (N = 318) were randomized into behavioral intervention (n = 159) or attention/social contact control (n = 159) conditions that were administered via Internet websites and supported with behavioral coaching. Demographic, clinical, symptom, behavioral, and SCT data were from before the 6-month period of delivering the conditions, and MVPA data were from before and after the 6-month period. We examined heterogeneity based on waterfall plots, box plots, and the Levene statistic. We identified predictors of MVPA change using bivariate correlation and multiple, linear regression analyses per condition. RESULTS: The Levene statistic indicated statistically significant heterogeneity of variances for MVPA change between conditions (p = .003), and the waterfall plots and box plots indicated greater heterogeneity in MVPA change for the behavioral intervention. MVPA change score was correlated with baseline MVPA (r = - .33 and r = - .34, p = .0004 and p = .0001) in both conditions and walking impairment (r = - .188, p = .047) and race (r = .233, p = .014) in the behavioral intervention condition. The regression analysis indicated that baseline MVPA (Standardized B = - .449, p = .000002), self-reported walking impairment (Standardized B = - .310, p = .0008), and race (Standardized B = .215, p = .012) explained 25.6% of variance in MVPA change for the behavioral intervention condition. CONCLUSION: We provide evidence for walking impairment, baseline MVPA, and race as predictors of the heterogeneity in the pattern of MVPA change with a behavioral intervention.

Effects of a More Selective Arteriovenous Fistula Strategy on Vascular Access Outcomes.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The optimal choice of vascular access for patients undergoing hemodialysis-arteriovenous fistula (AVF) or arteriovenous graft (AVG)-remains controversial. In a pragmatic observational study of 692 patients, the authors found that among patients who initiated hemodialysis with a central vein catheter (CVC), a strategy that maximized AVF placement resulted in a higher frequency of access procedures and greater access management costs for patients who initially received an AVF than an AVG. A more selective policy that avoided AVF placement if an AVF was predicted to be at high risk of failure resulted in a lower frequency of access procedures and access costs in patients receiving an AVF versus an AVG. These findings suggest that clinicians should be more selective in placing AVFs because this approach improves vascular access outcomes. BACKGROUND: The optimal choice of initial vascular access-arteriovenous fistula (AVF) or graft (AVG)-remains controversial, particularly in patients initiating hemodialysis with a central venous catheter (CVC). METHODS: In a pragmatic observational study of patients who initiated hemodialysis with a CVC and subsequently received an AVF or AVG, we compared a less selective vascular access strategy of maximizing AVF creation (period 1; 408 patients in 2004 through 2012) with a more selective policy of avoiding AVF creation if failure was likely (period 2; 284 patients in 2013 through 2019). Prespecified end points included frequency of vascular access procedures, access management costs, and duration of catheter dependence. We also compared access outcomes in all patients with an initial AVF or AVG in the two periods. RESULTS: An initial AVG placement was significantly more common in period 2 (41%) versus period 1 (28%). Frequency of all access procedures per 100 patient-years was significantly higher in patients with an initial AVF than an AVG in period 1 and lower in period 2. Median annual access management costs were significantly higher among patients with AVF ($10,642) versus patients with AVG ($6810) in period 1 but significantly lower in period 2 ($5481 versus $8253, respectively). Years of catheter dependence per 100 patient-years was three-fold higher in patients with AVF versus patients with AVG in period 1 (23.3 versus 8.1, respectively), but only 30% higher in period 2 (20.8 versus 16.0, respectively). When all patients were aggregated, the median annual access management cost was significantly lower in period 2 ($6757) than in period 1 ($9781). CONCLUSIONS: A more selective approach to AVF placement reduces frequency of vascular access procedures and cost of access management.

Statistical considerations when estimating time-saving treatment effects in Alzheimer's disease clinical trials.

INTRODUCTION: Estimating treatment effects as time savings in disease progression may be more easily interpretable than assessing the absolute difference or a percentage reduction. In this study, we investigate the statistical considerations of the existing method for estimating time savings and propose alternative complementary methods. METHODS: We propose five alternative methods to estimate the time savings from different perspectives. These methods are applied to simulated clinical trial data that mimic or modify the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes progression trajectories observed in the Clarity AD lecanemab trial. RESULTS: Our study demonstrates that the proposed methods can generate more precise estimates by considering two crucial factors: (1) the absolute difference between treatment arms, and (2) the observed progression rate in the treatment arm. DISCUSSION: Quantifying treatment effects as time savings in disease progression offers distinct advantages. To provide comprehensive estimations, it is important to use various methods. HIGHLIGHTS: We explore the statistical considerations of the current method for estimating time savings. We proposed alternative methods that provide time savings estimations based on the observed absolute differences. By using various methods, a more comprehensive estimation of time savings can be achieved.

Mendelian randomization in the multivariate general linear model framework.

Mendelian randomization (MR) is an application of instrumental variable (IV) methods to observational data in which the IV is a genetic variant. MR methods applicable to the general exponential family of distributions are currently not well characterized. We adapt a general linear model framework to the IV setting and propose a general MR method applicable to any full-rank distribution from the exponential family. Empirical bias and coverage are estimated via simulations. The proposed method is compared to several existing MR methods. Real data analyses are performed using data from the REGARDS study to estimate the potential causal effect of smoking frequency on stroke risk in African Americans. In simulations with binary variates and very weak instruments the proposed method had the lowest median [Q1 , Q3 ] bias (0.10 [-3.68 to 3.62]); compared with 2SPS (0.27 [-3.74 to 4.26]) and the Wald method (-0.69 [-1.72 to 0.35]). Low bias was observed throughout other simulation scenarios; as well as more than 90% coverage for the proposed method. In simulations with count variates, the proposed method performed comparably to 2SPS; the Wald method maintained the most consistent low bias; and 2SRI was biased towards the null. Real data analyses find no evidence for a causal effect of smoking frequency on stroke risk. The proposed MR method has low bias and acceptable coverage across a wide range of distributional scenarios and instrument strengths; and provides a more parsimonious framework for asymptotic hypothesis testing compared to existing two-stage procedures.

Association of age and inflammatory disease activity in the pivotal natalizumab clinical trials in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Focal inflammatory disease activity in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) diminishes with increasing age. Here we use patient-level data from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of natalizumab treatment in RRMS to investigate the association of age and inflammatory disease activity. METHODS: We used patient-level data from the AFFIRM (natalizumab vs placebo in relapsing-remitting MS, NCT00027300) and SENTINEL (natalizumab plus interferon beta vs interferon beta in relapsing remitting MS, NCT00030966) RCTs. We determined the proportion of participants developing new T2 lesions, contrast-enhancing lesions (CELs) and relapses over 2 years of follow-up as a function of age, and investigated the association of age with time to first relapse using time-to-event analyses. RESULTS: At baseline, there were no differences between age groups in T2 lesion volume and number of relapses in the year before inclusion. In SENTINEL, older participants had a significantly lower number of CELs. During both trials, the number of new CELs and the proportion of participants developing new CELs were significantly lower in older age groups. The number of new T2 lesions and the proportion of participants with any radiological disease activity during follow-up were also lower in older age groups, especially in the control arms. CONCLUSIONS: Older age is associated with a lower prevalence and degree of focal inflammatory disease activity in treated and untreated RRMS. Our findings inform the design of RCTs, and suggest that patient age should be taken into consideration when deciding on immunomodulatory treatment in RRMS.

Serum neurofilament light chain levels at attack predict post-attack disability worsening and are mitigated by inebilizumab: analysis of four potential biomarkers in neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate relationships between serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL), ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolase L1 (sUCHL1), tau (sTau) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (sGFAP) levels and disease activity/disability in neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD), and the effects of inebilizumab on these biomarkers in N-MOmentum. METHODS: N-MOmentum randomised participants to receive inebilizumab or placebo with a randomised controlled period (RCP) of 28 weeks and an open-label follow-up period of ≥2 years. The sNfL, sUCHL1, sTau and sGFAP were measured using single-molecule arrays in 1260 scheduled and attack-related samples from N-MOmentum participants (immunoglobulin G (IgG) autoantibodies to aquaporin-4-positive, myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein-IgG-positive or double autoantibody-negative) and two control groups (healthy donors and patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis). RESULTS: The concentration of all four biomarkers increased during NMOSD attacks. At attack, sNfL had the strongest correlation with disability worsening during attacks (Spearman R2=0.40; p=0.01) and prediction of disability worsening after attacks (sNfL cut-off 32 pg/mL; area under the curve 0.71 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.89); p=0.02), but only sGFAP predicted upcoming attacks. At RCP end, fewer inebilizumab-treated than placebo-treated participants had sNfL>16 pg/mL (22% vs 45%; OR 0.36 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.76); p=0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with sGFAP, sTau and sUCHL1, sNfL at attack was the strongest predictor of disability worsening at attack and follow-up, suggesting a role for identifying participants with NMOSD at risk of limited post-relapse recovery. Treatment with inebilizumab was associated with lower levels of sGFAP and sNfL than placebo. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02200770.

The impact of relapse definition and measures of durability on MS clinical trial outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Definitions of trial measures are consequential to accurately capturing outcomes and cross-trial comparability, particularly for derivative measures. OBJECTIVE: Using CombiRx, examine the impact of relapse definition on endpoints and evaluate the durability of progression measures in Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS). METHODS: CombiRx relapse types were distinguished by the presence or timing of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) increase. Using the broadest definition of relapse, progression endpoints were assessed in patients without relapses on trial. Durability compared EDSS at study end and time of worsening. RESULTS: Broadening relapse definition to the most inclusive definition increased annualized relapse rate (ARR) threefold in all arms and decreased progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA), defined as 6-month confirmed disability worsening (6M CDW) without relapse, by 44%. Neither PIRA nor PIA (progression independent of any inflammatory activity) guaranteed durable worsening, with 43% and 40%, respectively, improving by end of study. Multivariate analysis showed two CDW events, not relapse, predicted durability among patients meeting 6M CDW. CONCLUSIONS: The stringency of relapse definition impacted absolute ARR and composite endpoints in RRMS. Despite the most generous relapse definition, 43% of patients meeting PIRA on trial did not have durable worsening suggesting that relapse definition and durability should be considered to avoid overestimating progression in RRMS trials.