Algorithmic benchmark modulation: A novel method to develop success rates for clinical studies.

BACKGROUND: High-quality decision-making in the pharmaceutical industry requires accurate assessments of the Probability of Technical Success of clinical trials. Failure to do so will lead to lost opportunities for both patients and investors. Pharmaceutical companies employ different methodologies to determine Probability of Technical Success values. Some companies use power and assurance calculations; others prefer to use industry benchmarks with or without the overlay of subjective modulations. At AstraZeneca, both assurance calculations and industry benchmarks are used, and both methods are combined with modulations. METHODS: AstraZeneca has recently implemented a simple algorithm that allows for modulation of a Probability of Technical Success value. The algorithm is based on a set of multiple-choice questions. These questions cover a comprehensive set of issues that have historically been considered by AstraZeneca when subjective modulations to Probability of Technical Success values were made but do so in a much more structured way. RESULTS: A set of 57 phase 3 Probability of Technical Success assessments suggests that AstraZeneca's historical estimation of Probability of Technical Success has been reasonably accurate. A good correlation between the subjective modulation and the modulation algorithm was found. This latter observation, combined with the finding that historically AstraZeneca has been reasonably accurate in its estimation of Probability of Technical Success, gives confidence in the validity of the novel method. DISCUSSION: Although it is too early to demonstrate whether the method has improved the accuracy of company's Probability of Technical Success assessments, we present our data and analysis here in the hope that it may assist the pharmaceutical industry in addressing this key challenge. This new methodology, developed for pivotal studies, enables AstraZeneca to develop more consistent Probability of Technical Success assessments with less effort and can be used to adjust benchmarks as well as assurance calculations. CONCLUSION: The Probability of Technical Success modulation algorithm addresses several concerns generally associated with assurance calculations or benchmark without modulation: selection biases, situations where little relevant prior data are available and the difficulty to model many factors affecting study outcomes. As opposed to using industry benchmarks, the Probability of Technical Success modulation algorithm allows to accommodate project-specific considerations.

Triple Inhaled Therapy at Two Glucocorticoid Doses in Moderate-to-Very-Severe COPD.

BACKGROUND: Triple fixed-dose regimens of an inhaled glucocorticoid, a long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA), and a long-acting ß2-agonist (LABA) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have been studied at single dose levels of inhaled glucocorticoid, but studies at two dose levels are lacking. METHODS: In a 52-week, phase 3, randomized trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of triple therapy at two dose levels of inhaled glucocorticoid in patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD and at least one exacerbation in the past year, we assigned patients in a 1:1:1:1 ratio to receive twice-daily inhaled doses of triple therapy (inhaled glucocorticoid [320 µg or 160 µg of budesonide], a LAMA [18 µg of glycopyrrolate], and a LABA [9.6 µg of formoterol]) or one of two dual therapies (18 µg of glycopyrrolate plus 9.6 µg of formoterol or 320 µg of budesonide plus 9.6 µg of formoterol). The primary end point was the annual rate (the estimated mean number per patient per year) of moderate or severe COPD exacerbations, as analyzed in the modified intention-to-treat population with the use of on-treatment data only. RESULTS: The modified intention-to-treat population comprised 8509 patients. The annual rates of moderate or severe exacerbations were 1.08 in the 320-µg-budesonide triple-therapy group (2137 patients), 1.07 in the 160-µg-budesonide triple-therapy group (2121 patients), 1.42 in the glycopyrrolate-formoterol group (2120 patients), and 1.24 in the budesonide-formoterol group (2131 patients). The rate was significantly lower with 320-µg-budesonide triple therapy than with glycopyrrolate-formoterol (24% lower: rate ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69 to 0.83; P<0.001) or budesonide-formoterol (13% lower: rate ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.79 to 0.95; P = 0.003). Similarly, the rate was significantly lower with 160-µg-budesonide triple therapy than with glycopyrrolate-formoterol (25% lower: rate ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69 to 0.83; P<0.001) or budesonide-formoterol (14% lower: rate ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.79 to 0.95; P = 0.002). The incidence of any adverse event was similar across the treatment groups (range, 61.7 to 64.5%); the incidence of confirmed pneumonia ranged from 3.5 to 4.5% in the groups that included inhaled glucocorticoid use and was 2.3% in the glycopyrrolate-formoterol group. CONCLUSIONS: Triple therapy with twice-daily budesonide (at either the 160-µg or 320-µg dose), glycopyrrolate, and formoterol resulted in a lower rate of moderate or severe COPD exacerbations than glycopyrrolate-formoterol or budesonide-formoterol. (Funded by AstraZeneca, ETHOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02465567.).

Treatment Trials in Young Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Pre-Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients: Time to Move Forward.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the end result of a series of dynamic and cumulative gene-environment interactions over a lifetime. The evolving understanding of COPD biology provides novel opportunities for prevention, early diagnosis, and intervention. To advance these concepts, we propose therapeutic trials in two major groups of subjects: "young" individuals with COPD and those with pre-COPD. Given that lungs grow to about 20 years of age and begin to age at approximately 50 years, we consider "young" patients with COPD those patients in the age range of 20-50 years. Pre-COPD relates to individuals of any age who have respiratory symptoms with or without structural and/or functional abnormalities, in the absence of airflow limitation, and who may develop persistent airflow limitation over time. We exclude from the current discussion infants and adolescents because of their unique physiological context and COPD in older adults given their representation in prior randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We highlight the need of RCTs focused on COPD in young patients or pre-COPD to reduce disease progression, providing innovative approaches to identifying and engaging potential study subjects. We detail approaches to RCT design, including potential outcomes such as lung function, patient-reported outcomes, exacerbations, lung imaging, mortality, and composite endpoints. We critically review study design components such as statistical powering and analysis, duration of study treatment, and formats to trial structure, including platform, basket, and umbrella trials. We provide a call to action for treatment RCTs in 1) young adults with COPD and 2) those with pre-COPD at any age.

A randomized controlled trial of glycopyrrolate administered by metered dose inhaler in patients with uncontrolled asthma despite ICS/LABA treatment.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of three doses of glycopyrrolate metered dose inhaler (GP MDI) in patients with uncontrolled asthma despite treatment with inhaled corticosteroid/long-acting ß2-agonists (ICS/LABA) with or without tiotropium, to characterize the benefit of triple therapy. METHOD: This phase II/III, double-blind study randomized patients to 24 weeks' treatment with twice-daily GP MDI 36 µg, 18 µg, 9 µg, or placebo MDI (all delivered via Aerosphere inhalers), or once-daily open-label tiotropium 2.5 µg. Patients continued their own ICS/LABA regimen throughout the study. The primary endpoint was change from baseline in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) area under the curve from 0 - 4 h (AUC0 - 4) at Week 24. Secondary endpoints included patient questionnaires to measure asthma control or symptoms. Safety was also assessed. RESULTS: The primary analysis (modified intent-to-treat) population included 1066 patients. The primary study endpoint was not met (changes from baseline in FEV1 AUC0 - 4 at Week 24 were 294 mL, 284 mL, 308 mL, 240 mL, and 347 mL for GP MDI 36 µg, GP MDI 18 µg, GP MDI 9 µg, placebo, and open-label tiotropium, respectively). There were no significant differences between treatment and placebo in secondary endpoints at Week 24. Post-hoc analyses using post-bronchodilator FEV1 as the baseline measurement, or averaging values across multiple baseline visits, showed a dose-related response to GP MDI. The incidence of adverse events was low and similar across treatments. CONCLUSION: Although this study did not meet its primary endpoint, post hoc analyses identified a dose-related response to GP MDI when alternative definitions of baseline FEV1 were used in the analyses.

Reduced All-Cause Mortality in the ETHOS Trial of Budesonide/Glycopyrrolate/Formoterol for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. A Randomized, Double-Blind, Multicenter, Parallel-Group Study.

Rationale: In the phase III, 52-week ETHOS (Efficacy and Safety of Triple Therapy in Obstructive Lung Disease) trial in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (NCT02465567), triple therapy with budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (BGF) significantly reduced all-cause mortality compared with glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (GFF). However, 384 of 8,509 patients were missing vital status at Week 52 in the original analyses.Objectives: To assess the robustness of the ETHOS mortality findings after additional data retrieval for patients missing Week 52 vital status in the original analyses.Methods: Patients with moderate to very severe COPD and prior history of exacerbation received twice-daily dosing with 320/18/9.6 µg of BGF (BGF 320), 160/18/9.6 µg of BGF (BGF 160), 18/9.6 µg of GFF, or 320/9.6 µg of budesonide/formoterol fumarate (BFF) (all delivered via a single metered-dose Aerosphere inhaler). Time to death (all-cause) was a prespecified secondary endpoint.Measurements and Main Results: In the final retrieved dataset, which included Week 52 vital status for 99.6% of the intent-to-treat population, risk of death with BGF 320 was significantly lower than GFF (hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.80; unadjusted P = 0.0035). There were no significant differences in mortality when comparing BGF 320 with BFF (hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.44-1.16; P = 0.1721), nor were significant differences observed when comparing BGF 160 against either dual comparator. Results were similar when the first 30, 60, or 90 days of treatment were excluded from the analysis. Deaths from cardiovascular causes occurred in 0.5%, 0.8%, 1.4%, and 0.5% of patients in the BGF 320, BGF 160, GFF, and BFF groups, respectively.Conclusions: Using final retrieved vital status data, triple therapy with BGF 320 reduced the risk of death compared with GFF, but was not shown to significantly reduce the risk of death compared with BFF, in patients with COPD. Triple therapy containing a lower dose of inhaled corticosteroid (BGF 160) was not shown to significantly reduce the risk of death compared with the dual therapy comparators.

Efficacy of budesonide/glycopyrronium/formoterol metered dose inhaler in patients with COPD: post-hoc analysis from the KRONOS study excluding patients with airway reversibility and high eosinophil counts.

BACKGROUND: In the Phase III KRONOS study, triple therapy with budesonide/glycopyrronium/formoterol fumarate metered dose inhaler (BGF MDI) was shown to reduce exacerbations and improve lung function versus glycopyrronium/formoterol fumarate dihydrate (GFF) MDI in patients with moderate-to-very severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, whether the benefits related to the ICS component of BGF are driven by patients with high blood eosinophil counts (EOS) and/or airway reversibility has not been previously studied. METHODS: KRONOS was a Phase III, double-blind, parallel-group, multicenter, randomized, controlled study of patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD. Patients were randomized 2:2:1:1 to receive BGF 320/14.4/10 µg, GFF 14.4/10 µg, budesonide/formoterol fumarate dihydrate (BFF) MDI 320/10 µg via a single Aerosphere inhaler, or open-label budesonide/formoterol fumarate dihydrate dry powder inhaler 400/12 µg (BUD/FORM DPI; Symbicort Turbuhaler) twice-daily for 24 weeks. Efficacy outcomes included in this post-hoc analysis were change from baseline in morning pre-dose trough FEV1 over weeks 12-24 and the rate of moderate-to-severe and severe COPD exacerbations. Adverse events in the non-reversible subgroup are also reported. RESULTS: Of 1896 patients analyzed, 948 (50%) were non-reversible and had EOS < 300 cells/mm3. In this group, BGF significantly improved morning pre-dose trough FEV1 versus BFF and BUD/FORM (least squares mean treatment difference, 95% confidence interval [CI] 69 mL [39, 99], unadjusted p < 0.0001 and 51 mL [20, 81], unadjusted p = 0.0011, respectively) and was comparable to GFF. BGF also significantly reduced annual moderate-to-severe exacerbation rates versus GFF (rate ratio [95% CI] 0.53 [0.37, 0.76], unadjusted p = 0.0005), with numerical reductions observed versus BFF and BUD/FORM. These results were similar for the overall study population. Safety findings were generally similar between non-reversible patients with EOS < 300 cells/mm3 and the overall population. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD without airway reversibility and EOS < 300 cells/mm3, BGF significantly improved morning pre-dose trough FEV1 versus BFF and BUD/FORM and significantly reduced the rate of moderate-to-severe exacerbations versus GFF. These findings demonstrate that BGF can provide benefits for a broad range of patients with COPD, and that the overall findings of the KRONOS primary analysis were not driven by patients with reversible airflow obstruction or high eosinophil counts. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02497001. Registered 14 July 2015, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02497001.

Association between COPD exacerbations and lung function decline during maintenance therapy.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the impact of exacerbations on COPD progression or whether inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) use and blood eosinophil count (BEC) affect progression. We aimed to assess this in a prospective observational study. METHODS: The study population included patients with mild to moderate COPD, aged ≥35 years, with a smoking history, who were followed up for ≥3 years from first to last spirometry recording using two large UK electronic medical record databases: Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and Optimum Patient Care Research Database (OPCRD). Multilevel mixed-effects linear regression models were used to determine the relationship between annual exacerbation rate following initiation of therapy (ICS vs non-ICS) and FEV1 decline. Effect modification by blood eosinophils was studied through interaction terms. RESULTS: Of 12178 patients included (mean age 66 years; 48% female), 8981 (74%) received ICS. In patients with BEC ≥350 cells/µL not on ICS, each exacerbation was associated with subsequent acceleration of FEV1 decline of 19.4 mL/year (95% CI 12.0 to 26.7, p<0.0001). This excess decline was reduced by 15.1 mL/year (6.6 to 23.6) to 4.3 mL/year (1.9 to 6.7, p<0.0001) in those with BEC ≥350 cells/µL treated with ICS. CONCLUSION: Exacerbations are associated with a more rapid loss of lung function among COPD patients with elevated blood eosinophils, defined as ≥350 cells/µL, not treated with ICS. More aggressive prevention of exacerbations using ICS in such patients may prevent excess loss of lung function.

Pharmacokinetics of budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate metered dose inhaler formulated using co-suspension delivery technology after single and chronic dosing in patients with COPD.

BACKGROUND: Budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate metered dose inhaler (BGF MDI), formulated using co-suspension delivery technology, is a triple fixed-dose combination in late-stage clinical development for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: We conducted two studies to characterize the pharmacokinetic (PK) profile of BGF MDI in patients with COPD: (i) a phase I, open-label, single and chronic (7-day) dosing study (NCT03250182) with one treatment arm (BGF MDI 320/18/9.6 µg); and (ii) a PK sub-study of KRONOS (NCT02497001), a phase III, randomized, double-blind study in which patients received 24 weeks' treatment with BGF MDI 320/18/9.6 µg, glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (GFF) MDI 18/9.6 µg, budesonide/formoterol fumarate (BFF) MDI 320/9.6 µg, or budesonide/formoterol fumarate dry powder inhaler (BUD/FORM DPI) 320/9 µg. PK parameters in both studies included maximum observed plasma concentration (Cmax) and area under the plasma concentration-time curve from 0 to 12h (AUC0-12). RESULTS: In the phase I PK study (30 patients), budesonide and glycopyrronium Cmax were comparable after single and chronic dosing of BGF MDI (accumulation ratio [RAC] 95% and 107%, respectively) whereas Cmax for formoterol was slightly higher after chronic dosing (RAC 116%). AUC0-12 for budesonide, glycopyrronium, and formoterol were higher following chronic versus single dosing, with an RAC of 126%, 179%, and 143%, respectively. After 7 days' dosing, AUC0-12 and Cmax for all three components of BGF MDI were similar to those in the KRONOS PK sub-study (202 patients) at Week 24. In the latter sub-study, Cmax and AUC0-12 at Week 24 were generally comparable across treatments for budesonide (geometric mean ratios [GMR] of 96%-109% for BGF MDI vs BFF MDI or BUD/FORM DPI), glycopyrronium (GMR of 88%-100% for BGF MDI vs GFF MDI), and formoterol (GMR of 80%-113% for BGF MDI vs GFF MDI or BFF MDI). CONCLUSIONS: Steady-state PK parameters of budesonide, glycopyrronium, and formoterol were similar after 7 days' dosing in the phase I PK study and after 24 weeks in the KRONOS PK sub-study. Systemic exposure to budesonide, glycopyrronium, and formoterol was generally comparable across treatments in the KRONOS PK sub-study, suggesting no meaningful drug-drug or within-formulation PK interactions.

The attributable estimand: A new approach to account for intercurrent events.

The term "intercurrent events" has recently been used to describe events in clinical trials that may complicate the definition and calculation of the treatment effect estimand. This paper focuses on the use of an attributable estimand to address intercurrent events. Those events that are considered to be adversely related to randomized treatment (eg, discontinuation due to adverse events or lack of efficacy) are considered attributable and handled with a composite estimand strategy, while a hypothetical estimand strategy is used for intercurrent events not considered to be related to randomized treatment (eg, unrelated adverse events). We explore several options for how to implement this approach and compare them to hypothetical "efficacy" and treatment policy estimand strategies through a series of simulation studies whose design is inspired by recent trials in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and we illustrate through an analysis of a recently completed COPD trial.

The pharmacokinetics of three doses of budesonide/glycopyrronium/formoterol fumarate dihydrate metered dose inhaler compared with active controls: A Phase I randomized, single-dose, crossover study in healthy adults.

The budesonide/glycopyrronium/formoterol fumarate dihydrate metered dose inhaler (BGF MDI) is an inhaled corticosteroid/long-acting muscarinic antagonist/long-acting ß2-agonist fixed-dose combination formulated with innovative co-suspension delivery technology that is in clinical development for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This randomized, Phase I, single-dose, six-treatment, four-period, crossover study (NCT01980615) examined the pharmacokinetic (PK) and safety profile of three doses of BGF MDI (320/14.4/10 µg [equivalent to budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate 320/18/9.6 µg], 160/14.4/10 µg and 80/14.4/10 µg), two doses of a budesonide/formoterol fumarate dihydrate fixed-dose combination (BUD/FORM MDI 320/9 µg and 160/9 µg; not using co-suspension delivery technology) and a glycopyrronium/formoterol fumarate dihydrate co-suspension delivery technology MDI (GFF MDI 14.4/10 µg) in healthy volunteers (18-45 years of age). PK parameters included area under the plasma concentration-time curve from 0 to 12 h (AUC0-12), AUC up to the last measurable concentration (AUC0-t), maximum plasma concentration (Cmax) and time to maximum plasma concentration (tmax). Safety was monitored throughout the study. Of 84 subjects randomized, 76 completed the study. BGF MDI 320/14.4/10 µg was bioequivalent to BUD/FORM MDI 320/9 µg for budesonide for Cmax, AUC0-12 and AUC0-t (primary objective). Dose proportionality was observed for the budesonide component between BGF MDI 80/14.4/10 µg and BGF MDI 160/14.4/10 µg, and between BGF MDI 160/14.4/10 µg and BGF MDI 320/14.4/10 µg. Systemic exposure to glycopyrronium and formoterol after BGF MDI 320/14.4/10 µg treatment was similar to GFF MDI 14.4/10 µg. The rate of adverse events was 3.7-17.9% across treatments without any serious adverse events. In conclusion, BGF MDI 320/14.4/10 µg had a similar budesonide PK profile to BUD/FORM MDI 320/9 µg. No PK drug-drug interactions were observed when budesonide was added to glycopyrronium and formoterol fumarate dihydrate. These data support the use of budesonide 320 µg and 160 µg in future clinical trials of BGF MDI in COPD.

A randomized, seven-day study to assess the efficacy and safety of a glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate fixed-dose combination metered dose inhaler using novel Co-Suspension™ Delivery Technology in patients with moderate-to-very severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: Long-acting muscarinic antagonist/long-acting ß2-agonist combinations are recommended for patients whose chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is not managed with monotherapy. We assessed the efficacy and safety of glycopyrrolate (GP)/formoterol fumarate (FF) fixed-dose combination delivered via a Co-Suspension™ Delivery Technology-based metered dose inhaler (MDI) (GFF MDI). METHODS: This was a Phase IIb randomized, multicenter, placebo-controlled, double-blind, chronic-dosing (7 days), crossover study in patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD ( NCT01085045 ). Treatments included GFF MDI twice daily (BID) (GP/FF 72/9.6 µg or 36/9.6 µg), GP MDI 36 µg BID, FF MDI 7.2 and 9.6 µg BID, placebo MDI, and open-label formoterol dry powder inhaler (FF DPI) 12 µg BID or tiotropium DPI 18 µg once daily. The primary endpoint was forced expiratory volume in 1 s area under the curve from 0 to 12 h (FEV1 AUC0-12) on Day 7 relative to baseline FEV1. Secondary endpoints included pharmacokinetics and safety. RESULTS: GFF MDI 72/9.6 µg or 36/9.6 µg led to statistically significant improvements in FEV1 AUC0-12 after 7 days' treatment versus monocomponent MDIs, placebo MDI, tiotropium, or FF DPI (p ≤ 0.0002). GFF MDI 36/9.6 µg was non-inferior to GFF MDI 72/9.6 µg and monocomponent MDIs were non-inferior to open-label comparators. Pharmacokinetic results showed glycopyrrolate and formoterol exposure were decreased following administration via fixed-dose combination versus monocomponent MDIs; however, this was not clinically meaningful. GFF MDI was well tolerated. CONCLUSIONS: GFF MDI 72/9.6 µg and 36/9.6 µg BID improve lung function and are well tolerated in patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01085045 . Registered 9 March 2010.

Dose-response to inhaled glycopyrrolate delivered with a novel Co-Suspension™ Delivery Technology metered dose inhaler (MDI) in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD.

BACKGROUND: This study forms part of the first complete characterization of the dose-response curve for glycopyrrolate (GP) delivered using Co-Suspension™ Delivery Technology via a metered dose inhaler (MDI). We examined the lower GP MDI dose range to determine an optimal dose for patients with moderate-to-severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: This randomized, double-blind, chronic-dosing, balanced incomplete-block, placebo-controlled, crossover study compared six doses of GP MDI (18, 9, 4.6, 2.4, 1.2, and 0.6 µg, twice daily [BID]) with placebo MDI BID and open-label tiotropium dry powder inhaler (18 µg, once daily [QD]) in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD. Patients were randomized into 1 of 120 treatment sequences. Each sequence included 4 of 8 treatments administered for 14-day periods separated by 7- to 21-day washout periods. The primary efficacy endpoint was change from baseline in forced expiratory volume in 1 s area under the curve from 0 to 12 h (FEV1 AUC0-12) on Day 14. Secondary efficacy endpoints included peak change from baseline (post-dose) in FEV1 and inspiratory capacity (IC) on Days 1, 7, and 14; change from baseline in morning pre-dose trough FEV1 on Days 7 and 14; change from baseline in 12-h post-dose trough FEV1 on Day 14; time to onset of action (≥10 % improvement in mean FEV1) and the proportion of patients achieving ≥12 % improvement in FEV1 on Day 1; and pre-dose trough IC on Days 7 and 14. Safety and tolerability were also assessed. RESULTS: GP MDI 18, 9, 4.6, and 2.4 µg demonstrated statistically significant and clinically relevant increases in FEV1 AUC0-12 compared with placebo MDI following 14 days of treatment (modified intent-to-treat population = 120). GP MDI 18 µg was non-inferior to open-label tiotropium for peak change in FEV1 on Day 1 and morning pre-dose trough FEV1 on Day 14. All doses of GP MDI were well tolerated with no unexpected safety findings. CONCLUSIONS: These efficacy and safety results support GP MDI 18 µg BID as the most appropriate dose for evaluation in Phase III trials in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01566773 . Registered 27 March 2012.

Randomized study of the safety, pharmacokinetics, and bronchodilatory efficacy of a proprietary glycopyrronium metered-dose inhaler in study patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: Bronchodilator medications are central to the symptomatic management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Metered-dose inhalers (MDIs) are the most commonly used devices to deliver treatment to patients with COPD and asthma, comprising approximately 70% of bronchodilator prescriptions. Proprietary porous-particle technology permits the formulation of long-acting muscarinic antagonists, long-acting ß2-agonists, and a combination of both in hydrofluoroalkane (HFA) MDIs, providing a solution to formulation challenges inherent to the development of HFA MDIs, which have contributed to the development of dry-powder inhalers. METHODS: In this randomized, double-blind, 4-period, 6-treatment, placebo- and active-controlled, multicenter, crossover study, 4 ascending single doses of a proprietary glycopyrronium (GP) MDI were evaluated compared with Placebo MDI and open-label tiotropium (TIO) in study patients with COPD. Thirty-three study patients were enrolled and received single-dose administration of 4 of the 6 treatments (Placebo MDI, TIO 18 µg, or GP MDI at 14.4, 28.8, 57.6, and 115.2 µg ex-actuator) with an interval of 1 to 3 weeks between doses. The primary efficacy endpoint was peak change in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1). RESULTS: All 4 doses of GP MDI showed statistically superior efficacy compared with Placebo MDI for peak FEV1 (differences of 146 to 248 mL; P<.001), with a clear dose ordering of the response. Statistically significant differences compared with Placebo MDI were noted at almost all doses for the secondary FEV1 parameters (P ≤ .049) except 24-hour trough FEV1 at 28.8 µg. All doses were safe and well tolerated in this study; the most frequently reported adverse event was dry mouth (0-14.3% across doses; 9.5% for Placebo MDI, and 9.1% for TIO). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated superior bronchodilatory efficacy of GP MDI compared with Placebo MDI at all doses tested, and no serious adverse events were reported. This study supports the further evaluation of GP MDI in study patients with COPD. In addition, these findings indicate that the correct dosage of glycopyrronium is no more than 115.2 µg total daily dose, or 57.6 µg twice daily based on comparisons with the active comparator. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This clinical trial was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, Identifier: NCT00871182.

Comparability of critical quality attributes for establishing biosimilarity.

To develop a biosimilar product, it is essential to demonstrate the biosimilarity between the proposed biosimilar product and the reference product first in terms of quality in a stepwise approach that can then help inform the extent of safety and efficacy data that will be required to establish biosimilarity. These comparability studies should have direct side-by-side comparisons of the test and the reference products. In this paper, we develop a statistical method for unpaired head-to-head quality attribute comparisons. The method uses a plausibility interval derived from comparing the reference against the reference itself as the goalpost for claiming comparability. The idea behind this is that any observed difference between the reference and the reference itself should be considered as the random noise and as a part of the variability. We illustrate the performance of the proposed method by using simulation and real data sets.

Mortality risk reduction with budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate versus fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol in COPD: a matching-adjusted indirect comparison based on ETHOS and IMPACT.

OBJECTIVE: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of death worldwide. While two approved fixed-dose inhaled corticosteroid/long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA)/long-acting ß2-agonist (LABA) triple therapies reduce all-cause mortality (ACM) versus dual LAMA/LABA therapy in patients with COPD, head-to-head studies have not compared the effects of these therapies on ACM. We compared ACM in adults with moderate-to-very severe COPD receiving budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (BGF) in ETHOS versus fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI) in IMPACT using a matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC). METHODS: A systematic literature review identified two studies (ETHOS [NCT02465567]; IMPACT [NCT02164513]) of ≥52 weeks reporting ACM as an efficacy endpoint in patients receiving triple therapy. As ETHOS and IMPACT lack a common comparator, an unanchored MAIC compared ACM between licensed doses of BGF (320/18/9.6 µg) from ETHOS and FF/UMEC/VI (100/62.5/25 µg) from IMPACT in patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD. Using on- and off-treatment data from the final retrieved datasets of the intention-to-treat populations, BGF data were adjusted according to aggregate FF/UMEC/VI data using 11 baseline covariates; a supplementary unadjusted indirect treatment comparison was also conducted. P-values for these post-hoc analyses are not adjusted for Type I error. RESULTS: ACM over 52 weeks was statistically significantly reduced by 39% for BGF versus FF/UMEC/VI in the MAIC (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI]: 0.61 [0.38, 0.95], p = 0.030) and unadjusted analysis (HR [95% CI]: 0.61 [0.41, 0.92], p = 0.019). CONCLUSION: In this MAIC, which adjusted for population heterogeneity between ETHOS and IMPACT, ACM was significantly reduced with BGF versus FF/UMEC/VI in patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (known as COPD) is a leading cause of death worldwide, being responsible for over 3 million deaths in 2019. People living with COPD are more likely to die. Importantly, a sudden worsening of COPD symptoms (known as an exacerbation) is associated with a higher chance of death from heart-related and breathing-related problems. Therefore, reducing risk of death is an important treatment goal for COPD. Of the three medications approved for treating COPD that combine three drugs in a single-inhaler device, there are two­referred to generically as budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (BGF) and fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI)­that can reduce the risk of death in people living with COPD compared with treatments that combine two drugs. However, no studies have directly compared the risk of death in people living with COPD treated with these medicines. We compared the risk of death in people living with moderate-to-very severe COPD who received either BGF during a clinical trial called ETHOS or FF/UMEC/VI during a clinical trial called IMPACT. To make this comparison, we used a method called "matching-adjusted indirect comparison", which used specific features (such as sex, breathing difficulty, and whether they were current smokers) to match patients from the two studies to ensure similar groups were examined. Our analysis showed a 39% decrease in the chance of death in patients who received BGF compared with patients who received FF/UMEC/VI. This finding may be important for doctors to improve patient health and reduce the risk of death in people living with COPD.

Benefits of Budesonide/Glycopyrronium/Formoterol Fumarate Dihydrate on COPD Exacerbations, Lung Function, Symptoms, and Quality of Life Across Blood Eosinophil Ranges: A Post-Hoc Analysis of Data from ETHOS.

Purpose: Blood eosinophil (EOS) count can guide treatment decisions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). In the 52-week ETHOS study (NCT02465567), budesonide/glycopyrronium/formoterol fumarate dihydrate (BGF) triple therapy at two inhaled corticosteroid doses reduced moderate/severe exacerbation rates and improved lung function, symptoms, and disease-related quality of life (QoL) versus dual therapy with glycopyrronium/formoterol fumarate dihydrate (GFF) or budesonide/formoterol fumarate dihydrate (BFF) in patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD. This subgroup analysis evaluated treatment benefits in ETHOS by baseline EOS count. Methods: Patients (40-80 years) with a COPD history were randomly assigned 1:1:1:1 to receive BGF 320/14.4/10 µg, BGF 160/14.4/10 µg, GFF 14.4/10 µg, or BFF 320/10 µg via a metered-dose inhaler. This post-hoc analysis assessed endpoints by baseline EOS count using Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease thresholds (<100, ≥100, ≥100-<300, ≥300 cells/mm3), and investigated continuous relationships between treatment effects and EOS count on exacerbations, symptoms, disease-related QoL, lung function, and safety. Results: In the modified intention-to-treat population (n=8509), 82.6% had EOS counts ≥100 cells/mm3. BGF 320 reduced moderate/severe exacerbation rates versus GFF in the ≥100, ≥100-<300, and ≥300 subgroups; treatment differences increased with EOS count. BGF 320 improved rescue medication use and lung-function outcomes across all subgroups, and St George's Respiratory Questionnaire total score, Transition Dyspnea Index focal score, and Exacerbations of Chronic Pulmonary Disease Tool total score in all except the <100 subgroup versus GFF. Benefits of BGF 320 versus BFF were generally consistent across subgroups. Safety data were comparable across subgroups. Conclusion: Benefits of BGF versus GFF were observed across EOS counts, particularly at ≥100 cells/mm³; versus BFF, benefits were largely independent of EOS. These findings confirm that benefits of ICS-containing triple therapy are not restricted to EOS counts ≥300 cells/mm³, supporting recommendations to consider triple therapy in patients with an exacerbation history and EOS counts ≥100 cells/mm³.

Predictive modeling of COPD exacerbation rates using baseline risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Demographic and disease characteristics have been associated with the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. Using previously collected multinational clinical trial data, we developed models that use baseline risk factors to predict an individual's rate of moderate/severe exacerbations in the next year on various pharmacological treatments for COPD. METHODS: Exacerbation data from 20,054 patients in the ETHOS, KRONOS, TELOS, SOPHOS, and PINNACLE-1, PINNACLE-2, and PINNACLE-4 studies were pooled. Machine learning was used to identify predictors of moderate/severe exacerbation rates. Important factors were selected for generalized linear modeling, further informed by backward variable selection. An independent test set was held back for validation. RESULTS: Prior exacerbations, eosinophil count, forced expiratory volume in 1 s percent predicted, prior maintenance treatments, reliever medication use, sex, COPD Assessment Test score, smoking status, and region were significant predictors of exacerbation risk, with response to inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) increasing with higher eosinophil counts, more prior exacerbations, or additional prior treatments. Model fit was similar in the training and test set. Prediction metrics were ~10% better in the full model than in a simplified model based only on eosinophil count, prior exacerbations, and ICS use. CONCLUSION: These models predicting rates of moderate/severe exacerbations can be applied to a broad range of patients with COPD in terms of airway obstruction, eosinophil counts, exacerbation history, symptoms, and treatment history. Understanding the relative and absolute risks related to these factors may be useful for clinicians in evaluating the benefit: risk ratio of various treatment decisions for individual patients.Clinical trials registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02465567, NCT02497001, NCT02766608, NCT02727660, NCT01854645, NCT01854658, NCT02343458, NCT03262012, NCT02536508, and NCT01970878).