Bariatric-metabolic surgery versus lifestyle intervention plus best medical care in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (BRAVES): a multicentre, open-label, randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies suggest that bariatric-metabolic surgery might greatly improve non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). However, the efficacy of surgery on NASH has not yet been compared with the effects of lifestyle interventions and medical therapy in a randomised trial. METHODS: We did a multicentre, open-label, randomised trial at three major hospitals in Rome, Italy. We included participants aged 25-70 years with obesity (BMI 30-55 kg/m2), with or without type 2 diabetes, with histologically confirmed NASH. We randomly assigned (1:1:1) participants to lifestyle modification plus best medical care, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, or sleeve gastrectomy. The primary endpoint of the study was histological resolution of NASH without worsening of fibrosis at 1-year follow-up. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03524365. FINDINGS: Between April 15, 2019, and June 21, 2021, we biopsy screened 431 participants; of these, 103 (24%) did not have histological NASH and 40 (9%) declined to participate. We randomly assigned 288 (67%) participants with biopsy-proven NASH to lifestyle modification plus best medical care (n=96 [33%]), Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (n=96 [33%]), or sleeve gastrectomy (n=96 [33%]). In the intention-to-treat analysis, the percentage of participants who met the primary endpoint was significantly higher in the Roux-en-Y gastric bypass group (54 [56%]) and sleeve gastrectomy group (55 [57%]) compared with lifestyle modification (15 [16%]; p<0·0001). The calculated probability of NASH resolution was 3·60 times greater (95% CI 2·19-5·92; p<0·0001) in the Roux-en-Y gastric bypass group and 3·67 times greater (2·23-6·02; p<0·0001) in the sleeve gastrectomy group compared with in the lifestyle modification group. In the per protocol analysis (236 [82%] participants who completed the trial), the primary endpoint was met in 54 (70%) of 77 participants in the Roux-en-Y gastric bypass group and 55 (70%) of 79 participants in the sleeve gastrectomy group, compared with 15 (19%) of 80 in the lifestyle modification group (p<0·0001). No deaths or life-threatening complications were reported in this study. Severe adverse events occurred in ten (6%) participants who had bariatric-metabolic surgery, but these participants did not require re-operations and severe adverse events were resolved with medical or endoscopic management. INTERPRETATION: Bariatric-metabolic surgery is more effective than lifestyle interventions and optimised medical therapy in the treatment of NASH. FUNDING: Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A Gemelli, Policlinico Universitario Umberto I and S Camillo Hospital, Rome, Italy.

A simplified longitudinal model for the development of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

Obesity and diabetes are a progressively more and more deleterious hallmark of modern, well fed societies. In order to study the potential impact of strategies designed to obviate the pathological consequences of detrimental lifestyles, a model for the development of Type 2 diabetes geared towards large population simulations would be useful. The present work introduces such a model, representing in simplified fashion the interplay between average glycemia, average insulinemia and functional beta-cell mass, and incorporating the effects of excess food intake or, conversely, of physical activity levels. Qualitative properties of the model are formally established and simulations are shown as examples of its use.

Accurate liquid biopsy for the diagnosis of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis and liver fibrosis.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical diagnosis and approval of new medications for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) require invasive liver biopsies. The aim of our study was to identify non-invasive biomarkers of NASH and/or liver fibrosis. DESIGN: This multicentre study includes 250 patients (discovery cohort, n=100 subjects (Bariatric Surgery Versus Non-alcoholic Steato-hepatitis - BRAVES trial); validation cohort, n=150 (Liquid Biopsy for NASH and Liver Fibrosis - LIBRA trial)) with histologically proven non-alcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) or NASH with or without fibrosis. Proteomics was performed in monocytes and hepatic stellate cells (HSCs) with iTRAQ-nano- Liquid Chromatography - Mass Spectrometry/Mass Spectrometry (LC-MS/MS), while flow cytometry measured perilipin-2 (PLIN2) and RAB14 in peripheral blood CD14+CD16- monocytes. Neural network classifiers were used to predict presence/absence of NASH and NASH stages. Logistic bootstrap-based regression was used to measure the accuracy of predicting liver fibrosis. RESULTS: The algorithm for NASH using PLIN2 mean florescence intensity (MFI) combined with waist circumference, triglyceride, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and presence/absence of diabetes as covariates had an accuracy of 93% in the discovery cohort and of 92% in the validation cohort. Sensitivity and specificity were 95% and 90% in the discovery cohort and 88% and 100% in the validation cohort, respectively.The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for NAS level prediction ranged from 83.7% (CI 75.6% to 91.8%) in the discovery cohort to 97.8% (CI 95.8% to 99.8%) in the validation cohort.The algorithm including RAB14 MFI, age, waist circumference, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, plasma glucose and ALT levels as covariates to predict the presence of liver fibrosis yielded an AUROC of 95.9% (CI 87.9% to 100%) in the discovery cohort and 99.3% (CI 98.1% to 100%) in the validation cohort, respectively. Accuracy was 99.25%, sensitivity 100% and specificity 95.8% in the discovery cohort and 97.6%, 99% and 89.6% in the validation cohort. This novel biomarker was superior to currently used FIB4, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score and aspartate aminotransferase (AST)-to-platelet ratio and was comparable to ultrasound two-dimensional shear wave elastography. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed novel liquid biopsy is accurate, sensitive and specific in diagnosing the presence and severity of NASH or liver fibrosis and is more reliable than currently used biomarkers. CLINICAL TRIALS: Discovery multicentre cohort: Bariatric Surgery versus Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis, BRAVES, ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03524365.Validation multicentre cohort: Liquid Biopsy for NASH and Fibrosis, LIBRA, ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04677101.

Recruitment-to-inflation Ratio Assessed through Sequential End-expiratory Lung Volume Measurement in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) benefits in acute respiratory distress syndrome are driven by lung dynamic strain reduction. This depends on the variable extent of alveolar recruitment. The recruitment-to-inflation ratio estimates recruitability across a 10-cm H2O PEEP range through a simplified maneuver. Whether recruitability is uniform or not across this range is unknown. The hypotheses of this study are that the recruitment-to-inflation ratio represents an accurate estimate of PEEP-induced changes in dynamic strain, but may show nonuniform behavior across the conventionally tested PEEP range (15 to 5 cm H2O). METHODS: Twenty patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome underwent a decremental PEEP trial (PEEP 15 to 13 to 10 to 8 to 5 cm H2O). Respiratory mechanics and end-expiratory lung volume by nitrogen dilution were measured the end of each step. Gas exchange, recruited volume, recruitment-to-inflation ratio, and changes in dynamic, static, and total strain were computed between 15 and 5 cm H2O (global recruitment-to-inflation ratio) and within narrower PEEP ranges (granular recruitment-to-inflation ratio). RESULTS: Between 15 and 5 cm H2O, median [interquartile range] global recruitment-to-inflation ratio was 1.27 [0.40 to 1.69] and displayed a linear correlation with PEEP-induced dynamic strain reduction (r = -0.94; P < 0.001). Intraindividual recruitment-to-inflation ratio variability within the narrower ranges was high (85% [70 to 109]). The relationship between granular recruitment-to-inflation ratio and PEEP was mathematically described by a nonlinear, quadratic equation (R2 = 0.96). Granular recruitment-to-inflation ratio across the narrower PEEP ranges itself had a linear correlation with PEEP-induced reduction in dynamic strain (r = -0.89; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Both global and granular recruitment-to-inflation ratio accurately estimate PEEP-induced changes in lung dynamic strain. However, the effect of 10 cm H2O of PEEP on lung strain may be nonuniform. Granular recruitment-to-inflation ratio assessment within narrower PEEP ranges guided by end-expiratory lung volume measurement may aid more precise PEEP selection, especially when the recruitment-to-inflation ratio obtained with the simplified maneuver between PEEP 15 and 5 cm H2O yields intermediate values that are difficult to interpret for a proper choice between a high and low PEEP strategy.

High-Flow Versus VenturiMask Oxygen Therapy to Prevent Reintubation in Hypoxemic Patients after Extubation: A Multicenter Randomized Clinical Trial.

Rationale: When compared with VenturiMask after extubation, high-flow nasal oxygen provides physiological advantages. Objectives: To establish whether high-flow oxygen prevents endotracheal reintubation in hypoxemic patients after extubation, compared with VenturiMask. Methods: In this multicenter randomized trial, 494 patients exhibiting PaO2:FiO2 ratio ⩽ 300 mm Hg after extubation were randomly assigned to receive high-flow or VenturiMask oxygen, with the possibility to apply rescue noninvasive ventilation before reintubation. High-flow use in the VenturiMask group was not permitted. Measurements and Main Results: The primary outcome was the rate of reintubation within 72 hours according to predefined criteria, which were validated a posteriori by an independent adjudication committee. Main secondary outcomes included reintubation rate at 28 days and the need for rescue noninvasive ventilation according to predefined criteria. After intubation criteria validation (n = 492 patients), 32 patients (13%) in the high-flow group and 27 patients (11%) in the VenturiMask group required reintubation at 72 hours (unadjusted odds ratio, 1.26 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.70-2.26]; P = 0.49). At 28 days, the rate of reintubation was 21% in the high-flow group and 23% in the VenturiMask group (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.60-1.31]; P = 0.55). The need for rescue noninvasive ventilation was significantly lower in the high-flow group than in the VenturiMask group: at 72 hours, 8% versus 17% (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.39 [95% CI, 0.22-0.71]; P = 0.002) and at 28 days, 12% versus 21% (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.32-0.83]; P = 0.007). Conclusions: Reintubation rate did not significantly differ between patients treated with VenturiMask or high-flow oxygen after extubation. High-flow oxygen yielded less frequent use of rescue noninvasive ventilation. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02107183).

Metabolic surgery versus conventional medical therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes: 10-year follow-up of an open-label, single-centre, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: No data from randomised controlled trials of metabolic surgery for diabetes are available beyond 5 years of follow-up. We aimed to assess 10-year follow-up after surgery compared with medical therapy for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We did a 10-year follow-up study of an open-label, single-centre (tertiary hospital in Rome, Italy), randomised controlled trial, in which patients with type 2 diabetes (baseline duration >5 years; glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c] >7·0%, and body-mass index ≥35 kg/m2) were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to medical therapy, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), or biliopancreatic diversion (BPD) by a computerised system. The primary endpoint of the study was diabetes remission at 2 years (HbA1c <6·5% and fasting glycaemia <5·55 mmol/L without ongoing medication for at least 1 year). In the 10-year analysis, durability of diabetes remission was analysed by intention to treat (ITT). This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00888836. FINDINGS: Between April 30, 2009, and Oct 31, 2011, of 72 patients assessed for eligibility, 60 were included. The 10-year follow-up rate was 95·0% (57 of 60). Of all patients who were surgically treated, 15 (37·5%) maintained diabetes remission throughout the 10-year period. Specifically, 10-year remission rates in the ITT population were 5·5% for medical therapy (95% CI 1·0-25·7; one participant went into remission after crossover to surgery), 50·0% for BPD (29·9-70·1), and 25·0% for RYGB (11·2-46·9; p=0·0082). 20 (58·8%) of 34 participants who were observed to be in remission at 2 years had a relapse of hyperglycaemia during the follow-up period (BPD 52·6% [95% CI 31·7-72·7]; RYGB 66·7% [41·7-84·8]). All individuals with relapse, however, maintained adequate glycaemic control at 10 years (mean HbA1c 6·7% [SD 0·2]). Participants in the RYGB and BPD groups had fewer diabetes-related complications than those in the medical therapy group (relative risk 0·07 [95% CI 0·01-0·48] for both comparisons). Serious adverse events occurred more frequently among participants in the BPD group (odds ratio [OR] for BPD vs medical therapy 2·7 [95% CI 1·3-5·6]; OR for RYGB vs medical therapy 0·7 [0·3-1·9]). INTERPRETATION: Metabolic surgery is more effective than conventional medical therapy in the long-term control of type 2 diabetes. Clinicians and policy makers should ensure that metabolic surgery is appropriately considered in the management of patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes. FUNDING: Fondazione Policlinico Universitario Agostino Gemelli IRCCS.

A population approach for the estimation of methylmercury ToxicoKinetics in red mullets.

It is known that, as the vast majority of the anthropogenically emitted mercury can be found in aquatic ecosystems, where several methylating bacteria are present, fish consumption represents the most critical intake source of the most toxic form of mercury, the methylmercury (MeHg). The aim of this work is to predict MeHg levels in the fish muscles which, being the edible portion, are part of the human diet. A physiologically based toxicokinetics model was developed to evaluate the kinetics of MeHg in red mullets. Fishes were described by means of a multi-compartment model including stomach, gut, blood, muscles and an additional compartment virtually encompassing all the remaining organs. Absorption, distribution and excretion were modelled considering different MeHg routes of administration and excretion: intake by ingestion of contaminated food, intake and elimination through inhalation-exhalation and excretion through feces. The model has been firstly validated on Terapon jarbua fish (using the weighted least squares method for parameter estimation) to be subsequently readapted to predict methylmercury concentrations in the muscle of red mullets (using an approximate Bayesian computation approach). This simple multicompartmental model could be considered part, a link in the chain, of a wider more complex project aiming at tracking the fate of MeHg from polluted seawater to the human end consumer. The present study could be useful to surveillance organizations in order to carry out a more comprehensive and informed risk assessment analysis and to take appropriate preventive measures by evaluating possible new MeHg concentration thresholds to minimize public health hazards.

Modeling continuous glucose monitoring with fractional differential equations subject to shocks.

Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) produces long time-series of noisy observations of a single variable (tissue glucose concentration), whose evolution may be explained by a dynamical model. In order to represent the unknown mixture of possible control mechanisms of different orders affecting the measured variable, a fractional differential approach seems justified. In any case, variations in food intake and/or physical activity ought to be taken into account if a plausible interpretation of the dynamics is to be obtained. In the present work, the mathematical construction and the numerical implementation of a Fractional Differential Equations (FDE) initial value problem are systematically reviewed, with the intent of offering the reader a concise and mathematically rigorous description of this approach. An FDE model for CGM is formulated: the model includes compartments for stomach and intestinal glucose contents and for blood and tissue (subcutaneous) glucose concentrations, as well as the shock effects of food ingestion and of increased glucose consumption due to physical activity. The model parameters, including the (non-integer) order of differentiation, are estimated from CGM observations on six Type 1 diabetic patients. The best-fit fractional orders for the six subjects range from 1.59 to 2.13. For comparison, best fits have also been computed for all subjects using an average fractional order of 1.9 and integer orders of 1 and 2.The results indicate that in the case of CGM the fractional differential model, which should be physiologically more appropriate, in fact fits the data much better than the first-order model and also better than the 2nd-order model.

Pioglitazone and bariatric surgery are the most effective treatments for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: A hierarchical network meta-analysis.

AIMS: To compare different treatments for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and to determine an effectiveness hierarchy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis including randomized controlled trials or prospective trials with at least 6 months' follow-up and histologically proven NASH in adult participants. Monte Carlo simulations were performed, each generating 10 000 data points, and results are reported as medians and 95% credibility intervals (CrIs). A meta-regression was conducted to find the effects of body mass index (BMI) decrement or reduction of homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) index on non-alcoholic fatty liver disease activity score (NAS) change. RESULTS: The review identified 48 eligible trials comprising 2356 adults (55.6% men). Data were pooled using a random-effects model. The most effective treatments in terms of NAS reduction per semester were pioglitazone and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB; -1.50 [95% CrI -2.08, -1.00] for pioglitazione and -1.00 [95% CrI -1.70, -0.32] for RYGB). Pioglitazone was also the best therapy for steatosis and lobular inflammation reduction. RYGB was the best treatment for hepatocellular ballooning reduction, whereas antioxidants appeared to be best for fibrosis improvement. For each 1% decrement in BMI, NAS was reduced by 1.3% (ß = 1.28%, P = 0.01). Conversely, a 1% reduction of HOMA-IR index reduced NAS by 0.3% (ß = 0.31%, P < 0.001). Treatments that were regarded as promising, such as elafibranor, simtuzumab, selonsertib, cenicriviroc, obeticholic acid and liraglutide, did not reduce either NAS or liver fibrosis significantly. CONCLUSIONS: Pioglitazione and RYGB are the most effective therapies for NASH. Antioxidants may be effective in reducing liver fibrosis. Weight loss and improvement of hepatic insulin resistance are promising approaches in the treatment of NASH.

A quasi-equilibrium reduced model of pancreatic insulin secretion.

Much attention has been devoted in the last few decades to mathematical models of insulin secretion, in order to better understand the regulation of glycemia and its derangements. The glucose-insulin homeostatic mechanism is so complex and gives rise to such diverse behavior following perturbations that different models had been published, which reproduced the results of single experiments. More recently, a unifying model of pancreatic insulin secretion was proposed, which is able to account, with a single value of the (meta)parameters, for the wide array of clinically observed behavior. This model explicitly represented the pulsatile nature of the many pancreatic hormone-secreting firing units: the price to pay for its flexibility and performance is the very high dimensionality (hundreds of thousand equations) of the corresponding dynamical system. Clearly, it would be desirable to reduce this model to a much simpler form while retaining its power to reproduce heterogeneous phenomena. The present work reviews the qualitative behavior of this pancreas pulsatile model and offers some insight into its reduction in equilibrium and quasi-equilibrium conditions, also considering single-shot (non-repeated) glucose jumps from an approximately resting condition (such as would occur in standard Intra-Venous bolus dosing of glucose during diabetes diagnostic maneuvers). The resulting quasi-steady-state model can be further endowed with additional lower-order dynamics to also approximate transient behavior. Although a more accurate reduction of the original pulsatile model is left to further investigation, numerical results confirm the biomedical applicability of the formulation already obtained.

Insulin sensitivity depends on the route of glucose administration.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The small intestine plays an important role in hepatic and whole-body insulin sensitivity, as shown by bariatric surgery. Our goal was to study whether routes and dose of glucose administration have an acute impact on insulin sensitivity. The primary endpoint of this proof-of-concept study was the difference in insulin-mediated metabolic clearance rate (MCR/I) of glucose between the oral and intravenous routes of glucose administration. Secondary endpoints were differences in insulin effect on proteolysis, ketogenesis, lipolysis and glucagon levels. METHODS: In this parallel cohort study, we administered multiple oral glucose loads to 23 participants (aged between 18 and 65 years) with morbid obesity and with normal or impaired glucose tolerance or type 2 diabetes. In a different session, we administered isoglycaemic intravenous glucose infusions (IGIVI) to match the plasma glucose levels observed during the oral challenges. Glucose rate of appearance (Ra) and disappearance (Rd) and endogenous glucose production (EGP) were calculated by infusing [6,6-2H2]glucose with or without oral [U-13C6]glucose. Plasma small polar metabolites were measured by gas chromatography and time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Lipids were measured by ultra-HPLC and quadrupole mass spectrometry. Glucagon-like peptide-1, insulin, C-peptide and glucagon were also measured. Participants, caregivers, people doing measurements or examinations, and people assessing the outcomes were unblinded to group assignment. RESULTS: Glucose MCR/I was significantly higher during IGIVI than during oral glucose administration, independently of glycaemic status (12 ± 6 for IGIVI vs 7.4 ± 3 ml min-1 kg-1 per nmol/l for oral, p< 0.001 from paired t test). Insulin secretion was higher during oral administration than during IGIVI (p< 0.001). The disposition index was significantly lower during the oral procedure: 4260 ± 1820 vs 5000 ± 2360 (ml min-1 kg-1 (nmol/l)-1 pmol/min; p = 0.005). Insulin clearance was significantly higher when glucose was infused rather than ingested (2.53 ± 0.82 vs 2.16 ± 0.49 l/min in intravenous and oral procedure, respectively, p = 0.006). The efficacy of insulin in inhibiting lipolysis and proteolysis was decreased after oral glucose loads. A heat map diagram showed a different pattern for the metabolites between the two routes of glucose administration. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our study shows that insulin sensitivity depends on the route of glucose administration, the oral route leading to increased insulin secretion and compensatory insulin resistance compared with the intravenous route. The efficacy of insulin in blocking lipolysis and protein breakdown is lower after oral glucose loads vs the intravenous route. Our findings suggest that, while the glucose-mediated incretin release is followed by an increase in insulin release, the effect of the released insulin is limited by an increase in insulin resistance. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03223129. Graphical abstract.

Bariatric-metabolic surgery versus conventional medical treatment in obese patients with type 2 diabetes: 5 year follow-up of an open-label, single-centre, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled trials have shown that bariatric surgery is more effective than conventional treatment for the short-term control of type-2 diabetes. However, published studies are characterised by a relatively short follow-up. We aimed to assess 5 year outcomes from our randomised trial designed to compare surgery with conventional medical treatment for the treatment of type 2 diabetes in obese patients. METHODS: We did our open-label, randomised controlled trial at one diabetes centre in Italy. Patients aged 30-60 years with a body-mass index of 35 kg/m(2) or more and a history of type 2 diabetes lasting at least 5 years were randomly assigned (1:1:1), via a computer-generated randomisation procedure, to receive either medical treatment or surgery by Roux-en-Y gastric bypass or biliopancreatic diversion. Participants were aware of treatment allocation before the operation and study investigators were aware from the point of randomisation. The primary endpoint was the rate of diabetes remission at 2 years, defined as a glycated haemaglobin A1c (HbA1c) concentration of 6·5% or less (≤47·5 mmol/mol) and a fasting glucose concentration of 5·6 mmol/L or less without active pharmacological treatment for 1 year. Here we analyse glycaemic and metabolic control, cardiovascular risk, medication use, quality of life, and long-term complications 5 years after randomisation. Analysis was by intention to treat for the primary endpoint and by per protocol for the 5 year follow-up. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00888836. FINDINGS: Between April 27, 2009, and Oct 31, 2009, we randomly assigned 60 patients to receive either medical treatment (n=20) or surgery by gastric bypass (n=20) or biliopancreatic diversion (n=20); 53 (88%) patients completed 5 years' follow-up. Overall, 19 (50%) of the 38 surgical patients (seven [37%] of 19 in the gastric bypass group and 12 [63%] of 19 in the bilipancreatic diversion group) maintained diabetes remission at 5 years, compared with none of the 15 medically treated patients (p=0·0007). We recorded relapse of hyperglycaemia in eight (53%) of the 15 patients who achieved 2 year remission in the gastric bypass group and seven (37%) of the 19 patients who achieved 2 year remission in the biliopancreatic diversion group. Eight (42%) patients who underwent gastric bypass and 13 (68%) patients who underwent biliopancreatic diversion had an HbA1c concentration of 6·5% or less (≤47·5 mmol/mol) with or without medication, compared with four (27%) medically treated patients (p=0·0457). Surgical patients lost more weight than medically treated patients, but weight changes did not predict diabetes remission or relapse after surgery. Both surgical procedures were associated with significantly lower plasma lipids, cardiovascular risk, and medication use. Five major complications of diabetes (including one fatal myocardial infarction) arose in four (27%) patients in the medical group compared with only one complication in the gastric bypass group and no complications in the biliopancreatic diversion group. No late complications or deaths occurred in the surgery groups. Nutritional side-effects were noted mainly after biliopancreatic diversion. INTERPRETATION: Surgery is more effective than medical treatment for the long-term control of obese patients with type 2 diabetes and should be considered in the treatment algorithm of this disease. However, continued monitoring of glycaemic control is warranted because of potential relapse of hyperglycaemia. FUNDING: Catholic University of Rome.

A glycemia-structured population model.

Structured models are population models in which the individuals are characterized with respect to the value of some variable of interest, called the structure variable. In the present paper, we propose a glycemia-structured population model, based on a linear partial differential equation with variable coefficients. The model is characterized by three rate functions: a new-adult population glycemic profile, a glycemia-dependent mortality rate and a glycemia-dependent average worsening rate. First, we formally analyze some properties of the solution, the transient behavior and the equilibrium distribution. Then, we identify the key parameters and functions of the model from real-life data and we hypothesize some plausible modifications of the rate functions to obtain a more beneficial steady-state behavior. The interest of the model is that, while it summarizes the evolution of diabetes in the population in a completely different way with respect to previously published Monte Carlo aggregations of individual-based models, it does appear to offer a good approximation of observed reality and of the features expected in the clinical setting. The model can offer insights in pharmaceutical research and be used to assess possible public health intervention strategies.

Predictors of remission of diabetes mellitus in severely obese individuals undergoing bariatric surgery: do BMI or procedure choice matter? A meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To compare diabetes remission after bariatric surgery in subjects with body mass index (BMI) of 35 kg/m2 or more or BMI of less than 35 kg/m to determine which predictors are best. BACKGROUND: BMI is currently the only selection criterion for bariatric surgery in diabetic subjects. Many studies have challenged BMI for predicting diabetes remission. METHODS: Data sources were PubMed, Cochrane Library, and EMBASE databases from January 1980 to June 2013. The selected studies were randomized controlled trials, controlled clinical trials, or cohort studies with 10 or more patients per arm. Of 1437 screened articles, 94 studies were included with 94,579 patients undergoing surgical procedures (4944 with type 2 diabetes mellitus). Weight, BMI, glycated hemoglobin A1c, fasting glucose, and insulin were abstracted by 2 independent reviewers. The effect size was the percent diabetes remission. RESULTS: Meta-analysis was performed for BMI less than 35 kg/m2 (group 1) and BMI 35 kg/m2 or more (group 2). Diabetes remission was 72% [95% confidence interval (CI), 65-80] in group 1 and 71% (95% CI, 65-77) in group 2. Diabetes resolution was 89% (95% CI, 83-94) after biliopancreatic diversion, 77% (95% CI, 72-82) after Roux-en-Y bypass, 62% (95% CI, 46-79) after gastric banding, and 60% (95% CI, 51-70) after sleeve gastrectomy. The only significant predictor of glycated hemoglobin A1c reduction was waist circumference, lower baseline waist associating with higher reduction. CONCLUSIONS: Bariatric surgery determines similar diabetes remission rates in patients with BMI of 35 kg/m2 or more or BMI of less than 35 kg/m2. Baseline BMI is unrelated to diabetes remission. The association of baseline waist circumference with glycated hemoglobin A1c reduction is likely due to selection bias. Bariatric or metabolic effects of the surgical procedures appear independent, and different indices are needed to predict them.

Bariatric surgery versus conventional medical therapy for type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Roux-en-Y gastric bypass and biliopancreatic diversion can markedly ameliorate diabetes in morbidly obese patients, often resulting in disease remission. Prospective, randomized trials comparing these procedures with medical therapy for the treatment of diabetes are needed. METHODS: In this single-center, nonblinded, randomized, controlled trial, 60 patients between the ages of 30 and 60 years with a body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of 35 or more, a history of at least 5 years of diabetes, and a glycated hemoglobin level of 7.0% or more were randomly assigned to receive conventional medical therapy or undergo either gastric bypass or biliopancreatic diversion. The primary end point was the rate of diabetes remission at 2 years (defined as a fasting glucose level of <100 mg per deciliter [5.6 mmol per liter] and a glycated hemoglobin level of <6.5% in the absence of pharmacologic therapy). RESULTS: At 2 years, diabetes remission had occurred in no patients in the medical-therapy group versus 75% in the gastric-bypass group and 95% in the biliopancreatic-diversion group (P<0.001 for both comparisons). Age, sex, baseline BMI, duration of diabetes, and weight changes were not significant predictors of diabetes remission at 2 years or of improvement in glycemia at 1 and 3 months. At 2 years, the average baseline glycated hemoglobin level (8.65±1.45%) had decreased in all groups, but patients in the two surgical groups had the greatest degree of improvement (average glycated hemoglobin levels, 7.69±0.57% in the medical-therapy group, 6.35±1.42% in the gastric-bypass group, and 4.95±0.49% in the biliopancreatic-diversion group). CONCLUSIONS: In severely obese patients with type 2 diabetes, bariatric surgery resulted in better glucose control than did medical therapy. Preoperative BMI and weight loss did not predict the improvement in hyperglycemia after these procedures. (Funded by Catholic University of Rome; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00888836.).

Effect of indoor nitrogen dioxide on lung function in urban environment.

BACKGROUND: High levels of indoor NO2 are associated with increased asthma symptoms and decreased expiratory peak flows in children. We investigated the association of exposure to domestic indoor NO2, objectively measured in winter and spring, with respiratory symptoms and lung function in a sample of adolescents from a southern Mediterranean area. METHODS: From a large school population sample (n=2150) participating in an epidemiological survey in the urban area of the City of Palermo (southern Italy), a sub-sample of 303 adolescents was selected which furnished an enriched sample for cases of current asthma. All subjects were evaluated by a health questionnaire, skin prick tests and spirometry. One-week indoor NO2 monitoring of their homes was performed by diffusive sampling during spring and again during winter. RESULTS: We found that about 25% of subjects were exposed to indoor NO2 levels higher than the 40µg/m(3) World Health Organization limit, during both spring and winter. Moreover, subjects exposed to the highest indoor NO2 concentrations had increased frequency of current asthma (p=0.005), wheeze episodes in the last 12 months (p<0.001), chronic phlegm (p=0.013), and rhinoconjunctivitis (p=0.008). Finally, subjects with a personal history of wheeze ever had poorer respiratory function (FEF25-75%, p=0.01) when exposed to higher indoor NO2 concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Home exposure to high indoor NO2 levels frequently occurs in adolescents living in a southern Mediterranean urban area and is significantly associated with the risks for increased frequency of both respiratory symptoms and reduced lung function.

Nasal high-flow versus Venturi mask oxygen therapy after extubation. Effects on oxygenation, comfort, and clinical outcome.

RATIONALE: Oxygen is commonly administered after extubation. Although several devices are available, data about their clinical efficacy are scarce. OBJECTIVES: To compare the effects of the Venturi mask and the nasal high-flow (NHF) therapy on PaO2/FiO2SET ratio after extubation. Secondary endpoints were to assess effects on patient discomfort, adverse events, and clinical outcomes. METHODS: Randomized, controlled, open-label trial on 105 patients with a PaO2/FiO2 ratio less than or equal to 300 immediately before extubation. The Venturi mask (n = 52) or NHF (n = 53) were applied for 48 hours postextubation. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: PaO2/FiO2SET, patient discomfort caused by the interface and by symptoms of airways dryness (on a 10-point numerical rating scale), interface displacements, oxygen desaturations, need for ventilator support, and reintubation were assessed up to 48 hours after extubation. From the 24th hour, PaO2/FiO2SET was higher with the NHF (287 ± 74 vs. 247 ± 81 at 24 h; P = 0.03). Discomfort related both to the interface and to airways dryness was better with NHF (respectively, 2.6 ± 2.2 vs. 5.1 ± 3.3 at 24 h, P = 0.006; 2.2 ± 1.8 vs. 3.7 ± 2.4 at 24 h, P = 0.002). Fewer patients had interface displacements (32% vs. 56%; P = 0.01), oxygen desaturations (40% vs. 75%; P < 0.001), required reintubation (4% vs. 21%; P = 0.01), or any form of ventilator support (7% vs. 35%; P < 0.001) in the NHF group. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the Venturi mask, NHF results in better oxygenation for the same set FiO2 after extubation. Use of NHF is associated with better comfort, fewer desaturations and interface displacements, and a lower reintubation rate. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 01575353).

Modeling outcome trajectories in patients with acquired brain injury using a non-linear dynamic evolution approach.

This study describes a dynamic non-linear mathematical approach for modeling the course of disease in acquired brain injury (ABI) patients. Data from a multicentric study were used to evaluate the reliability of the Michaelis-Menten (MM) model applied to well-known clinical variables that assess the outcome of ABI patients. The sample consisted of 156 ABI patients admitted to eight neurorehabilitation subacute units and evaluated at baseline (T0), 4 months after the event (T1) and at discharge (T2). The MM model was used to characterize the trend of the first Principal Component Analysis (PCA) dimension (represented by the variables: feeding modality, RLAS, ERBI-A, Tracheostomy, CRS-r and ERBI-B) in order to predict the most plausible outcome, in terms of positive or negative Glasgow outcome score (GOS) at discharge. Exploring the evolution of the PCA dimension 1 over time, after day 86 the MM model better differentiated between the time course for individuals with a positive and negative GOS (accuracy: 85%; sensitivity: 90.6%; specificity: 62.5%). The non-linear dynamic mathematical model can be used to provide more comprehensive trajectories of the clinical evolution of ABI patients during the rehabilitation period. Our model can be used to address patients for interventions designed for a specific outcome trajectory.

Evaluation of a mathematical model of diabetes progression against observations in the Diabetes Prevention Program.

The seminal publication of the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) results in 2002 has provided insight into the impact of major therapies on the development of diabetes over a time span of a few years. In the present work, the publicly available DPP data set is used to calibrate and evaluate a recently developed mechanistic mathematical model for the long-term development of diabetes to assess the model's ability to predict the natural history of disease progression and the effectiveness of preventive interventions. A general population is generated from which virtual subject samples corresponding to the DPP enrollment criteria are selected. The model is able to reproduce with good fidelity the observed time courses of both diabetes incidence and average glycemia, under realistic hypotheses on evolution of disease and efficacy of the studied therapies, for all treatment arms. Model-based simulations of the long-term evolution of the disease are consistent with the transient benefits observed with conventional therapies and with promising effects of radical improvement of insulin sensitivity (as by metabolic surgery) or of ß-cell protection. The mechanistic diabetes progression model provides a credible tool by which long-term implications of antidiabetic interventions can be evaluated.

Bariatric surgery and T2DM improvement mechanisms: a mathematical model.

BACKGROUND: Consensus exists that several bariatric surgery procedures produce a rapid improvement of glucose homeostasis in obese diabetic patients, improvement apparently uncorrelated with the degree of eventual weight loss after surgery. Several hypotheses have been suggested to account for these results: among these, the anti-incretin, the ghrelin and the lower-intestinal dumping hypotheses have been discussed in the literature. Since no clear-cut experimental results are so far available to confirm or disprove any of these hypotheses, in the present work a mathematical model of the glucose-insulin-incretin system has been built, capable of expressing these three postulated mechanisms. The model has been populated with critically evaluated parameter values from the literature, and simulations under the three scenarios have been compared. RESULTS: The modeling results seem to indicate that the suppression of ghrelin release is unlikely to determine major changes in short-term glucose control. The possible existence of an anti-incretin hormone would be supported if an experimental increase of GIP concentrations were evident post-surgery. Given that, on the contrary, collected evidence suggests that GIP concentrations decrease post-surgery, the lower-intestinal dumping hypothesis would seem to describe the mechanism most likely to produce the observed normalization of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) after bariatric surgery. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed model can help discriminate among competing hypotheses in a context where definitive data are not available and mechanisms are still not clear.