Modeling the epidemiological impact of the UNAIDS 2025 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.

BACKGROUND: UNAIDS has established new program targets for 2025 to achieve the goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. This study reports on efforts to use mathematical models to estimate the impact of achieving those targets. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We simulated the impact of achieving the targets at country level using the Goals model, a mathematical simulation model of HIV epidemic dynamics that includes the impact of prevention and treatment interventions. For 77 high-burden countries, we fit the model to surveillance and survey data for 1970 to 2020 and then projected the impact of achieving the targets for the period 2019 to 2030. Results from these 77 countries were extrapolated to produce estimates for 96 others. Goals model results were checked by comparing against projections done with the Optima HIV model and the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) for selected countries. We included estimates of the impact of societal enablers (access to justice and law reform, stigma and discrimination elimination, and gender equality) and the impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Results show that achieving the 2025 targets would reduce new annual infections by 83% (71% to 86% across regions) and AIDS-related deaths by 78% (67% to 81% across regions) by 2025 compared to 2010. Lack of progress on societal enablers could endanger these achievements and result in as many as 2.6 million (44%) cumulative additional new HIV infections and 440,000 (54%) more AIDS-related deaths between 2020 and 2030 compared to full achievement of all targets. COVID-19-related disruptions could increase new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 10% in the next 2 years, but targets could still be achieved by 2025. Study limitations include the reliance on self-reports for most data on behaviors, the use of intervention effect sizes from published studies that may overstate intervention impacts outside of controlled study settings, and the use of proxy countries to estimate the impact in countries with fewer than 4,000 annual HIV infections. CONCLUSIONS: The new targets for 2025 build on the progress made since 2010 and represent ambitious short-term goals. Achieving these targets would bring us close to the goals of reducing new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% between 2010 and 2030. By 2025, global new infections and AIDS deaths would drop to 4.4 and 3.9 per 100,000 population, and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) would be declining. There would be 32 million people on treatment, and they would need continuing support for their lifetime. Incidence for the total global population would be below 0.15% everywhere. The number of PLHIV would start declining by 2023.

Ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030: Time to reset targets for 2025.

Paul De Lay and co-authors introduce a Collection on the design of targets for ending the AIDS epidemic.

Protecting the confidentiality and security of personal health information in low- and middle-income countries in the era of SDGs and Big Data.

BACKGROUND: As increasing amounts of personal information are being collected through a plethora of electronic modalities by statutory and non-statutory organizations, ensuring the confidentiality and security of such information has become a major issue globally. While the use of many of these media can be beneficial to individuals or populations, they can also be open to abuse by individuals or statutory and non-statutory organizations. Recent examples include collection of personal information by national security systems and the development of national programs like the Chinese Social Credit System. In many low- and middle-income countries, an increasing amount of personal health information is being collected. The collection of personal health information is necessary, in order to develop longitudinal medical records and to monitor and evaluate the use, cost, outcome, and impact of health services at facility, sub-national, and national levels. However, if personal health information is not held confidentially and securely, individuals with communicable or non-communicable diseases (NCDs) may be reluctant to use preventive or therapeutic health services, due to fear of being stigmatized or discriminated against. While policymakers and other stakeholders in these countries recognize the need to develop and implement policies for protecting the privacy, confidentiality and security of personal health information, to date few of these countries have developed, let alone implemented, coherent policies. The global HIV response continues to emphasize the importance of collecting HIV-health information, recently re-iterated by the Fast Track to End AIDS by 2030 program and the recent changes in the Guidelines on When to Start Antiretroviral Therapy and on Pre-exposure Prophylaxis for HIV. The success of developing HIV treatment cascades in low- and middle-income countries will require the development of National Health Identification Systems. The success of programs like Universal Health Coverage, under the recently ratified Sustainable Development Goals is also contingent on the availability of personal health information for communicable and non-communicable diseases. DESIGN: Guidance for countries to develop and implement their own guidelines for protecting HIV-information formed the basis of identifying a number of fundamental principles, governing the areas of privacy, confidentiality and security. The use of individual-level data must balance maximizing the benefits from their most effective and fullest use, and minimizing harm resulting from their malicious or inadvertent release. DISCUSSION: These general principles are described in this paper, as along with a bibliography referring to more detailed technical information. A country assessment tool and user's manual, based on these principles, have been developed to support countries to assess the privacy, confidentiality, and security of personal health information at facility, data warehouse/repository, and national levels. The successful development and implementation of national guidance will require strong collaboration at local, regional, and national levels, and this is a pre-condition for the successful implementation of a range of national and global programs. CONCLUSION: This paper is a call for action for stakeholders in low- and middle-income countries to develop and implement such coherent policies and provides fundamental principles governing the areas of privacy, confidentiality, and security of personal health information being collected in low- and middle-income countries.